Time and space

Futures,

Vol. 29, No. 415, pp. 217-289, 1997 0 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd All rights reserved. Printed in Great Britain

Pergamon

00163287/97

$17.00 + 0.00

PII: SO01 6-3287(97)00016-5

TIME AND SPACE perspect .ives on the future

Geographic

Batty and Sam Cole

Michael

The idea behind special issues of Futures from the disciplines knowledge and perspectives of these disciplines

is to bring the specialized

into futures studies, and the reverse.’

Geographers seek to understand how places, landscapes, and ways of life come to be, are sustained, and are eventually the field of futures sciences. cities,

studies,

The topics covered in this volume

regional development,

systems,

transformed .2 Like economics or anthropology,

geography encompasses

virtual

reality,

embrace demography,

telecommunications,

and global modelling,

several dimensions

technology,

as well

and

of the social

economics,

future

geographic information

as discussions

on the goals and

progress of the discipline. The articles therefore add insights to themes that have been developed in Futures over the last several years, as well as introduce new topics. Geography is also a rapidly changing subject. Even since the 1970s has embraced, in its turn, the socio-spatial theories of localization from linking criticism,

dialectic, spatialization

based on scientific

spatial theory to feminist,

postmodernism,

realism,

and to literary

and post-imperialism.3

geography and futures studies, along with other disciplines, All disciplines

theory,

plus more recent challenges arising

gay, and race issues,

post-structuralism,

the discipline

of structuration

and cultural

To some

extent

share time-mapped lives.

adopt a certain ‘distance’ from their subjects, and one aspect of this

is that they interpret the world at a certain level of abstraction, and bring different nuances and interpretations to bear. Though each mainstream social science claims to be encompassing, their characteristic lens distinguishes geographers from economists, anthropologists,

or political

scientists,

As Kuhn observed, the nature of a discipline

Michael Batty is Professor of Spatial Analysis and Planning, Centre for Advanced 19 Torrington Place, London, WC1 E 6BT, UK (Tel: + 44 171 391 1781; fax: + [email protected]). Sam Cole is an Associate Editor of ‘Futures’. He holds a joint ments of Geography and the Department of Planning at the State University of New 0005, USA (Tel/fax: + 1 716 837 3924; e-mail: [email protected].)

can

Spatial Analysis (CASA), l44 171 813 2843; e-mail: Professorship in the DepartYork at Buffalo, NY 14261.

277

on the future: M Batty and S Co/r

Perspectives

readily be appreciated from the way it is presented, the problems the way it solves them. 4 Within

the broad umbrella

it poses for itself, and

of geographic discourse,

the papers

here fall largely into the frame of economic geography, and regional science, and take an Anglo-Saxon

male perspective.’ Thus,

we do not claim that the papers are representa-

tive of all geography, although they may provide a useful compass reference in the atlas of world-views. Peuquet has observed that geography’s study of processes over space and time is neither new nor unique.” Since the passage from the paradigm of geography as c-hronology in the 195Os, a variety of approaches to studying evolved, from Clark’s historical Hagerstrand’s,

Parkes’ and Thrift’s

fusion of natural and cultural Whatever

space-time

phenomena have

geography, Cliff and Ord’s sequenced map-scanning, and models of time-geography,

which incorporate the dif-

phenomena.’

the background the authors bring, it is apparent that their contributions

depend on far more than formal economic theory, let alone computerized

models. Each

takes a sophisticated view based on a disciplinary holism, which is to be expected since the authors are eclectic in their disciplines and their professional lives. Several of the contributors

have long been involved in futures studies. Brian Berry relates to the geogra-

phy of the United

States in the Year 2000,

Michael Batty to information munications

Peter Hall

to the post-industrial

theory of urban growth, and has been a member of the futures

since its inception. Peter Rogerson, as a demographer, necessarily Walter

city, and

and network cities. Richard Meier (1962) developed a com-

lsard has told us that the reason he became involved

movement

takes a long term view. in regional science was

because he wished to be able to forecast the future. Sam Cole would count himself a futurist,

and like Isard, only an accidental geographer

Thus,

while

as

many futurists

are

geographers, many geographers are futurists.

Geographic The first

perspectives

paper by Walter

establishes

on the future:

contributions

Isard, ‘Perspectives

evolutionary

of a Political

in Futures.

a bridge to recent literature

to this volume Geographer on the Future’,

In this paper he offers a sweeping

perspective on geography that focuses on a fascinating discussion

metry breaking (drawing parallels with quantum physics), commonality coordination,

and co-evolution),

and co-adaptive survival

explore the current nature of human consciousness marized these commonalities, ral systems,

he questions

machines.

of sym-

(such as altruism, He uses this

and social organization.

to

Having sum-

which suffuse present physical, biological, and sociocultu-

their implications

for the future, and especially

for a broadly

defined spatial geography. A key question here is how economies of scale, localization, proximity,

and their co-adaptation governing the specialization

cessing, and transmitting

information,

in storing, recalling,

are impacted by the communications

pro-

revolution.

He uses geographers’ concepts of hierarchical nodes and nested areal units to speculate about hierarchies of governance, and to explore the implications for political stability and democracy. He anticipates great diversity in per capita incomes, and social conditions, and diversity in spatial settlement. In discussing conditions of health, he notes that new information technologies will have little impact on income distribution and that the pattern of settlement

and movement

of a large part of the world

population

will

remain constrained by poverty. He cautions that this may be exacerbated by new military build-ups in developing countries as they jostle for regional power in the wake of the

270

Perspectives

Cold War.

In his conclusion

technologies,

which

he warns also of the great uncertainty

means that global society confronts

in negative directions,

on the future:

bifurcations

M Batty and S Co/e

arising

from new

that can propel it

accelerating the present decay of human political

institutions,

and

portending the advance of a new Dark Ages in world affairs. Brian Berry’s

paper ‘Long Waves and Geography in the 21st Century’ makes some

courageous forecasts for the next half century. rhythms,

particularly

He bases his analysis

on macrohistorical

those associated with the long-wave cycles and demography. Berry

can claim a serviceable track record as a forecaster. For example, 30 years ago anticipating the information

revolution,

he noted that the then prevailing

geographical concepts

were overly mechanical, and too preoccupied with the movement of people. He emphasized then that the challenge (for geographers) was to discern the signs, to fit them into a pattern, determine the process, and to deduce the logical consequences. Thus,

Berry

sought patterns in time and space, and he continues this tradition

to good effect in this

new paper. He brings together two forceful cycles, the Kondratief

long wave, which has

long been a topic of interest to futurists, insights

from the intersection

logistics

and the demographic cycle. Berry derives new

of these temporal phenomenon,

and explores

how growth

and stagflation crises of the long wave interact with demographic generations

(such as Boomers

and Millennials)

across time. He uses the dichotomy

of idealist and

civic versus reactive and recessive and their notion of ‘generational seasons of social history’ that manifests itself as a four-phase rhythm of eras and moods that structure social history.

The

rhythms,

generational

dynamics,

interlocked

with

Berry turns to the spatial implications

of fifth-wave technologies

ture or cyberspace). He notes that full telemobility least that the patterning variables familiar action

growth

logistics

and long-wave

provide the key to what is ahead. Having reviewed the temporal dimension,

costs-will

unlocking

have little

into electronic

Already

infrastruc-

consequences, not

‘friction-free

and transcapitalism’

and increased specialization

is

of pro-

depend on the extent to which functions can be cost-effectively flows,

the need for spatial proximity

different styles of work (such as telecommuting). cyberspace intersects

(information

have multiple

to spatial analysts-transportation saliency.

powerful forces forcing the concentration

duction, which ultimately transferred

residual

will

with generational

rhythms

Berry explores

across industries,

and

how the emergence of

and moods. In his conclusion

he illus-

trates how the coming stagflation crisis of the 2030s and the Awakening era that will drive society towards the mid-century, invoke a futurists’ instinct that crisis eras begin with collective

unity

in the face of perceived peril,

and culminate

in secular crisis

in

which change is overcome and a new set of ideals prevails. Peter Hall

in ‘Modelling

the Post-industrial

City’ presents

another important

and

deep-seated challenge to quantitative geography. Hall explains why urban modelling fell out of favour in the mid-1970s in the general disenchantment with the rational-comprehensive model of planning. He describes how classical urban models, developed in the late 1950s and the 196Os, were based on the urban theory developed in the United States and Germany between the mid-1920s and the mid-1940s, and described a world of relatively self-contained agrarian regions that exchanged goods and services with their rural hinterlands; and at the intra-urban scale, a world of centralized cities in which their business districts interacted with their suburbs in simple and tractable ways. Hall explains that the urban world of the 1990s is profoundly different, with cities competing in a global economy, constantly redefining their economic roles as the old functions of goods production are lost and new functions involving the creation and exchange and use of

279

on the future:M Batty and S Cole

Perspecfives

information

replace

systems of cities capture

this new

geographical

them.

linked

Cities

are deconcentrating

together

world

by flows

we need

locations

(such

and spreading

of people

a re-specification

as individual

to become

and information. of urban

business

Hall

models,

centres)

within

complex

argues that to

that will

position

the ambit

of their

mega-metropolitan regions, and simultaneously relate them to other places in other such mega-regions, indeed in other countries and continents: a single theory of information exchange

should

encompass

and situate

are sparse but that we should the perfectly

specified

In his paper

proceed

and calibrated

‘W(h)ither

Spatial

the future of the sub-discipline. analysts

still

associated

survive

with

considerably early

from

marginalized

nodes, hierarchies, discipline Here,

Johnston

the

role

of power

and

this topic

of political

left spatial

ston ponders national,

analysts

how

unbundled

era,

analytic

remains

a continuing

Michael world

is changing

presents an approach

geographic

ing importance

of mainframe

same may be true of graphical constituted

within

the real world

through

which

the convergence

came,

had recognized

on time-geography.

shrunk with

defined

‘project’,

of geographers,

by cyberspace,

lohn-

local,

inter-

national,

and direction

are increasingly

He questions

whether,

as territoriality

He answers the

new

in the

becomes

no, concluding spatial

that

organization

disc usses how the evolution

in both

subtle

of industry computing

technologies. Adding an entirely new dimension changed through virtual communication while

dramatic

how entire linked

of the

ways.

He

and to the future.

impacts

to predict

as examples.

intimately

of a plethora

social

‘experts’

He describes is now

and

to its mainstream

ideas have dramatic

and desktop

the computer,

entities? to address

geography

failure

computing.

work

obsolete

Geography’, thought

virtual

how powerful

and cites the complete

structures.

within.

at his answer in the title to his paper.

‘Virtual

that connects

Batty begins by observing anticipated,

by which hinting

in his paper,

in a world

is becoming

and supra-national

frameworks challenge,

Batty,

too

the entire

space. This neglect

space are changing

and changing

in the

networks,

space, artifacts

up by the next wave

Today,

wave

has been

from

bounded

its too narrowly

spaces, and that distance

space

into sub-national new

digital

and global

bounded

seeking

was soon taken

of bounded

to connectiveness,

postmodern

with

critique

‘IS Hagerstrand

in his seminal

analysts

on the side-lines.

concepts

transnational,

subordinated

constraints

scholar

of spatial

in the 196Os, concepts

of intense

on geographic

questions

science

interaction,

may have rescued

chose to neglect

place

the field

of spatial

that while,

maximization

analysts

by the spatial

geography

in vain for

197Os, and a new

through

it soon fell foul

societies

authority

it was neglected

and

community

has emerged,

He indicates

the fact that such a pre-eminent

Although who

spatial

that human

notwithstanding

1960s

systems)

utility

oblivion,

why

Ron Johnston

a substantial

years. He traces the origins

and distance

considers

such as apartheid

of the

information

in recent

from

that data for this system rather than wait

Analysis’,

that while

and its stages of development:

region

of geography

and Spatial

years

surfaces and diffusion.

such as the nodal

is available

model.

He observes,

GIS (geographic

He recognizes

what

Science

the boom

part of the century,

both.

with

that are rarely

the overwhelm-

He suggests that the geographies with

of communication

are being

the geography

of

and computing

to geography, real geographies are being virtual geographies are being invented

that bear little or no resemblance to the geography Batty dissects the contemporary variants of ‘reality’

of reality. To explain these changes, distinguishing between geographers’

traditional notions of place, and the abstract cspace (within the computer), cyberspace (from the computer), and cyberplace (the resultant impact on traditional space). HP illus-

280

Perspectives

trates personal, intersections.

individual,

organizational,

In his conclusion

and collective

on the future:

uses of each space, and their

he ponders the challenges

virtual geography face from the simultaneous

shrinking

that both geographers and

and expanding of local and global

space and time, as the boundaries between the digital and non-digital Juval Portugali’s paper “The Self-Organizing istic global behaviours of complex systems

M Batty and S Cole

blur and dissolve.

City” begins by describing the character-

in time and space. He follows

Haken in sug-

gesting that it is useful to examine the overall or global behaviour of the system. Portugali uses the idea of the city as a self-organizing pockets of sociospatial basis for planning general umbrella

stability

and policy.

system to describe the emergence of local

and he develops ways of developing this paradigm as a Portugali

for several theoretical

explains

that the term “self-organization”

is a

approaches which share general principles,

but

differ in the emphasis placed on subjects, processes, and properties. He discusses several applications to urbanism, tal cities, cellular

including dissipative cities, synergetic cities, chaotic cities, frac-

automata cities, and sandpile cities. This

(free agents on a cellular describe the structure discussion

space) and IRN

leads to a discussion

(Inter-Representation

and dynamics between two scales of self-organizing

of each category of cities starts with a short introduction

ciples of the approach and then elaborates its self-organizing like postmodernism ermodern qualities

Networks)

city, come with

systems.

His

to the general prin-

city. Portugali asserts that,

and its post modern urban phenomena, self-organization

self-organized

of FACS

models that

an air of recentness,

and its hyp-

of the newly

acquired

of our global village and city at the end of the 20th century and on the verge

of the 21 st, of hypermodernity. ing in the postindustrial Peter Rogerson’s

In short, his ideas provide a forceful approach to interven-

geographical future. paper ‘The Future

of Global

topic that has always been central to futurists.

Population

Modelling’

addresses a

It is at the heart of the Malthusian

debate

and many futures studies begin with reference to the prospect of global over-population. As Rogerson shows, many demographers are equally as concerned about declining population. In seeking to clarify, and even reconcile, these concerns, Rogerson considers geographic scale, linkages between populations, monitoring

and surveys,

and possibilities

as well as issues of measurement,

He shows that issues of geographic scale are central to proper analysis, there is tremendous

variation

in fertility,

such as

for improved forecasts of demographic change. migration,

and mortality

not just because

across the populations

who reside in different parts of the globe, but because of the frailty of our techniques of analysis.

He makes a central point that the structure

function

of the geographic scale at which they are intended to operate, but that in the

past, transnational

linkages that affect fertility

of population

and infant mortality

Because forecasts are always tenuous and errors are surprisingly ing of the components of assessment of population other tools of visualization appreciate new and more Nonetheless, Rogerson is

models should

be a

have been understated. large, continual monitor-

population change is critical in order to achieve an up-to-date prospects. In his conclusion, Rogerson explains how GIS and can aid our comprehension of past change, help us to better reliable data, and realize the implications of current forecasts. equivocal. Given the increased pace of global change, new

waves of international migration, new technologies of reproduction and health and lifestyle, and political agendas of demographers and institutions, and even changing definitions of what is human, he reviews in what sense population forecasts have improved, or can be further extended, or the range of uncertainty reduced. In his paper ‘Futures in Global Space//WWW.Model.s.GIS.Media’, Sam Cole summar-

281

Perspectives

on the future: M Batty and S Cole

izes and contextualizes attempts

to build

past and

a bridge

that the geographers’ insights,

in global

geography,

modelling,

noting

then considers technologies

despite

their contributions

by ideological,

old and new approaches

trends,

might

the new directions

being

regional

in the

scientists

years, and their

undertaken

contribution

modellers’

expensive

projects.

methods

by global

Nonetheless,

out a great deal of innovative

modellers,

research

question,

considers

that special

of the exploding sustainability. projections,

conurbations

in China

other

the litany

of reports

trade,

and

he suggests that opportunities

depend

substitution

the need to scan new knowledge, for the next Green mers about setting), ture,

efficient

extending might

as well

synthetic

inputs, cultivation

the present overly and human time,

to coastal

lease from other

as shifting

traditional

recycling

Meier

Western

illustrates

provides

he

based on linear new knowlfood

supplies,

to outline the

sol-

fundamental

of famines planning

in China, and

inter-

of the metrop-

systems, facilitating He stresses

some promising

directions

eco-village

tdboos

to

Although

production.

‘just-in-time’

the necessary

information recycling

communities aquaculture,

to far-

to the urban (even on land and maricul-

and fads, and adopting

even

re-design

from

of cities

away

resource consuming structures to designs that conserve space, energy, calling for experimental designs in arid lands. He anticipates that the

dgro-industrial complex will become obsolete technological innovation must be accompanied Peter Rimmer’s paper ‘China’s infrastructure Century’

Through

and control

such as Austr,llia),

from

of the threat

food provision

desert food-exporting

nations,

diets away

foods.

(extending

He

and prosperity

attempt’

family

and details

providing

the

literature.

stance.

of the history

computing

example,

urban

feasible.

degradation,

and so identifies

large

addresses

and powerful

in the mix of inputs to food

revolution-for

Cities’,

for enhancing

for the future

upon telecommunications,

a process of continuous

their best with

now can carry

food scarcity

actions

and a review

Despite

are the heart

He offers an ‘audacious

environmental

few

in populations

hope

economically

and

for the next

researchers

global

offer

some of

geographers,

especially

Chinese

elsewhere

will

ecology’

variability,

prevail.

he takes an optimistic innovative

of perspec-

and development

growth

pronouncing

famine.

by ‘community

climatic

olises will

inevitable

are technologically

offered

migration,

that China

and

observers,

but not yet utilized,

almost

that

national

many

available,

and avoiding appraisal

posed by the rapid

He

using low cost PCs, geographic

in the futures

he suggests that unprecedented

now

utions

questions

Unlike

does not discount edge

once again so topical

factors.

He suggests that a con-

agendas,

and independent

He

and in

information

panorama

and challenges process.

were

studies

as new

quantitative

software, and data downloaded from the Web. Richard Meier, in his paper ‘Food Futures to Sustain Malthusian

the futur-

He then describes

new and old, will

and less fettered

new

change.

and technical

as geography’s

up in institutional

academics

bring

with

of global

as well

modelling.

to the knowledge-building and approaches,

space,

in futures

institutional,

as well

He

arguing

that so few geographers

in geography,

to global

efforts are caught

and local

to theories

199Os, and the possibilities

range of methods

intentions,

contribute

modelling.

perspective,

that are consistent

laments

the fate of quantitative

the part played

economy

futurist’s

global

questions Cole

such as CIS and the Internet,

tives on global

siderable

to global locally’.

between

how

in global

and a global

on the links between

globally-act

some parallels

directions

geography

and methods

of ‘think

involved draws

emphasis

perspectives,

ists’ motto

present

between

a fascinating

account

of how

within a few generations, but that each by innovative appropriate organizations. and Economic Development in the 21 st the past translates

into the iuturtk,

and

Perspectives on the future: M Batty and S Cole

how

despite

One

aspect

the upheavals

of the last 100 years,

of this strong

creates

fresh visions,

China’s

historical

national

and sets future

geography

particularly

railroads

and provided

vision

of modernization

cursor

for the Four Modernizations, for future trajectories.

By this time

Deng’s

technocratic

will

that the visions revolution,

rural enterprises

economy

where

computer

networks.

Rimmer’s

recognize

that each place,

each region

it enables

A second quantitative

revolution

respects

several

marketing

China with

a cornerstone

inland

areas will

well

to deal with

to transform visions

assertion group

the

small

of a mid-2lst

are galvanized

or city, or any social

and

his forecasts

areas such as Tibet.

technology

societies

as a

growth

extends

and many

groups,

and village

paper supports

and that reconstructing

In some

urban

and Deng

for the year 2000.

focus on minority

have prepared

This

was pre-

geography

population

Rimmer

He

the political in China.

Zedong,

economic

slowing

in the coastal

that

in transport

experiences

for Mao

well.

to use information

into efficient

China’s

future

will

of modernization

had transformed

in China’s

of China’s

that incomes

for example,

changes

for infrastructure

guidance

be proceeding

leadership

see the way ahead’.

plans and expectations

so that modernization

information century

vision

He anticipates

He explains and scattered

He reviews

great continuity.

that ‘If we do not know

and international

and afforded

development

have risen considerably

vision

past developments

spring board

to the year 2050.

and telegraph,

based on Sun’s national

reinterprets

economic

observes

1900s technological

the basis for Dr Sun Yatsen’s

Rimmer

spurring

Rimmer

how by the early

arena,

Xiaoping.

targets.

has also been

has been through

over the past 100 years we cannot

begins his story by explaining and communication,

there

sense of direction

by micro-

of geographers has a unique

who history

understanding.

in geography?

papers

in this issue may appear

as a sub-discipline

pondering

its future. The quantitative early

revolution

197Os, and overlapped

the 1950s geographers ment and regional to explain societies with

in similar

the advent

tems analysis,

physical

in geography

explored

of the spatial

place

organization by similar

determinism

but failed

to explain

and led to a retreat

and new disciplines

for gaining

of economic

By

develop-

was an attempt the diversity studies.

research

a more general

of But

and sysquantitat-

systems. This quantitative

in other

and

studies.

of spatial

to empirical

such as operations

changes

the mid-1950s

era in futures

of explanations

environmental

to be new possibilities

was paralleled

between

quantitative

a number

of endowments,

environments,

of computers,

took

short-lived

For example,

in terms

there appeared

ive understanding ution

had already

disparities.

differences

in geography

the more

revol-

areas. It was incorporated

into the ‘moon-ghetto’ metaphor-a term coined by then US vice-president Hubert Humphrey to explain how the same science that had landed humans on the moon, would help to solve the problems of the cities. A new generation attempted to create a radically different theoretical approach

of quantitative geographers based on mathematics and

positive scientific method but this was soon critiqued from several directions. It was overly technocratic, and deterministic, and it built on the work of mainstream economists that distastefully reduced human psyche to that of economic maximizers. Marxist geographers focusing on class relations soon offered a positivist structuralist critique, while radical humanists encompassing individualist values, provided an emphatic post-positivist critique.

and feminist

and cultural

concerns,

283

Since

several

geography, ution?

contributors

it brings

space, there

Batty and 5 Co/e

future: M

on the

Perspectives

is a second

issue were

of whether,

quantitative

since the authors

or its surrogates

to this

the question

revolution

also ask the question

have a future debate

Spatial

(and

analysts

describe

were

and aggregate

gation

underpins

groups,

how

across

most

populations,

data are always spatial

with

are) quite sciences

how

classifications? only

partial

wide

grail to geographers

variety

tronic

of theories.8

communications,

have opened ambitious

new

able detail amount

of information,

the dissonance point

Portugali through well

models

personal with

model

the spatial

1960s during

systematic

collection

is practically

physical

with

With

world

offer new

cellular

automata

and

versa. social

‘cellular

even

Beyond

to the this as

psychologists

societies

insights

as to the

this, it seems that

narrows,

or vice

and biological

most

in consider-

and can be processed,

veracity.

space into very many

a

elec-

At their

seem unlimited

available

economists

human

systems. phenomena

coupled

the real world,

worldwide

in

‘self-organize’

automata’

that are

into the ways that cities

economies.

both as an industry

as a phenomenon

and as a tool

that GIS would tools

revolution. inquiry

of GIS viewing of geographical

facilitate

all predictions.”

the efficient

“l For some authors

the Internet

and regional

that had been developed

since the Renaissance’.”

it as little

alongside

in urban

age, its use has surpassed

and the modelling

in geographic

phers are sceptical

have

bases, and GIS together

global

possibilities

of empirical

over the last decade

the quantitative

agent of change

that

and evolved

power,

and predict

it becomes

scale. These models

it was announced analysis

analysts

organized

data

and the modelled

of how

most areas of the information

development

expanded

explain,

are replicating

explanation

that subdivide

computers,

given

this to other

that spatial

computer

and modelling

becomes

geographers

in industrializing

social

differences

and so on. And,

challenge

to

of aggre-

to categorize significant

space becomes

the technical

the real world

GIS has emerged

of how

the question

of how

units,

As Batty has explained, reality,

and improvement

the national

challenges

how can we translate

increased

much

seek to describe,

detail

implies,

below

emerge

sensing,

between

‘bottom-up’

of how

the speed at which

that the electronic

applying

theory

for visualizing

and virtual

and to the visual

geographic

to some criteria,

geography.

it even matters.

and, over the years, they have appropriated

over space and time.

animation,

or whether

abstract

questions

distance

space obsolete?

how to demonstrate

This is a profound

remote

models,

through

In the last decade,

horizons

GIS modellers

kind of revol-

of physical

success.

The search for a sustainable the holy

If so, what

In one form or another,

to add together according

with

in

and cyber-

all others that characterize

this variable,

preoccupied

space.

sectors of production,

collected

or social

addressed

above

of this revolution geography

the notion

age. Is physical

as to how to view

social

to define

in the making.

in an electronic

geographic

GIS, cellular

of whether

The papers focus on this one dimension There is a tremendous

at the forefront

with

and

analysis.

As

Early in its

implementation in the 1950s

of and

GIS is seen as ‘the greatest In contrast,

more than a technological

many geograpackage

for the

facts, and that GIS in and of itself is intellectually

sterile. Gregory has described GIS fanatics as ‘Latter-day a discredited philosophy echoing the blithe assumptions GIS enthusiasts make the imperialistic claim positivism.”

Victorians’ who have inherited and dreary illusions of logical that science is the only guaran-

tor of objective truth. Post-positivist geographers believe that geographic reality is a socially and culturally produced puzzle that is infinitely complex and cannot be unproblematically represented by simplifying the world into a digital format. According to Sui, the

284

Perspectives

GIS drama is unfolding diametrically

on the future:

rapidly as we enter the 21st Century,

opposed views on the philosophical

M Batty and S Co/e

but a reconciliation

of the

issues will rest on the close cooperation

of the parties involved. Geography is also an integrative subject. During the course of this century geographers have borrowed from other disciplines

to enhance the geographical ‘perspective’,

indeed some authors complain that this practice is too prevalent. Traditions and anthropology,

psychology,

the classics,

among the ideas that have been distilled geography a constantly

evolving

Marxist

analysis,

and transmuted

subject.

The

methods are shared by other fields, witnessed,

of geology

and quantum physics,

into the discipline.’

difficulties

are

3 This makes

of re-integrating

quantitative

for example, by recent efforts to integrate

the ‘new ecology’ into human geography. Here there is a strong critique of notions of generalized

carrying

capacity,

area biodiversity

relationships

and stability,

based on

location and isolation,

and biodiversity

and dubious principles

of systems ecology, and questionable assumptions

and spatial regularities

in biophysical

environments.

geographic

that depend on disproven assertions about temporal

l4 The convergence of local partici-

patory development, which involves technical and social knowledge of local inhabitants and the new ecology, will prove fruitful tal conservation, While

recognizing

the demise of quantitative

that methods in the disciplines methods

for research in human geography on environmen-

and also has relevance for futures studies.

may once again hold sway. Since,

changing structures,

spatial analysis,

change with the political

these methods

it is to be expected that they would

undergoing profound transformations, bal and social structures.

Thus,

and the tools of investigation.

Berry

also suggests

seasons, and that quantitative have not dealt well

with

fail when the real world

is

and re-emerge with new more clearly defined glo-

authors perceive an intimate relationship

between reality

For example, in his paper, Berry sees the future of geogra-

phy as a ‘dialectic of alternating geographies’ unlocked by these same processes of technical change. Batty foresees a merging of virtual

spaces and real virtuality.

There are rifts in geography, just as in futures studies, and other disciplines. considers that fragmentation

is the norm in mature academic disciplines

could be addressed to the quantitative sub-discipline provide an erudite

appraisal of the future

within

any discipline.

of spatial analysis

within

Johnston

and his analysis He and Berry

the discipline

of

geography. In this late 20th century, there is a raging debate within geography as in many areas of intellectual endeavour including futures studies, between broadly positivist and non-positivist/postmodern

modes of analysis. Although

in this issue have been associated with the positivist some recognition quantification,

amongst them and with their

formal

representation,

several of the authors with articles

school of geography, there has been

wider

constituency,

and computational

modelling

of the limits impose

that

on geo-

graphic theorizing. Yet it seems that the power of these ideas has held the field together, rather than any clear successes in developing better and more appropriate theory in the quantitative mould. There is a certain intellectual safety in formal methods that quantitative geographers have been reluctant to abandon. Johnston poses the question of why certain ‘potentially great’ ideas are ignored and especially why spatial geographers chose to set aside notions of bounded space that have become the mainstream of geography. One may speculate that the desire of quantitative geographers to remain analytically and empirically elegant has somewhat precluded their being explicit about more fundamental geographic issues. One genre of geographic futures

that is missing

from this volume,

but has been

285

Perspectives

on the future:

introduced

to futurists,

a well-founded

is found

geography

maps of possible points

M Batty and S Cole

futures,

of intervention

position,

been engaged

but to provide

from

Slaughter

in the book

which

better

(in a review

for many

geographers

Harvey,

Justice and the City’,

how

to recognize

transactions

separates

them...

space creatively, maps well

between

individuals the relevance

the template

In Gregory’s

‘Geographical

the present

that ‘anticipates

constructed

geographies.

Portugali” and

plurality;

will

he too

the

that

will

allow

humanistic)

and deconstructive

coexistence

but a dialogue

entities

such

compromises an agreed

the political

of

a theory

working

together,

that the declaration

for sustained

geography

of

possibilities

of

to the geography

(non-stratified),

of oppositions, with will

make

While

this

little and

and its

possible

not only

theories,

or social

is a fine

in any endeavour

within

plurality

(structuralist-Marxist-

it world-views, like.

spa-

of differences

present

positivist

that

becomes

research

This

imagination.

of a system of differences

beliefs,

the differences-be

or all disciplines

and use

by others.”

speculation.

coexistence

and the

to be made

by the space that to fashion

for the temporal

coexistence

groups,

programme

enables

is a non-stratigraphic

ethnic

about

imagination’

sets out an historical

forms,

geography;

among

as nations,

any discipline,

the

this have

lives and to recognize

forms created

is the theorization

allow

with

people

in 1973

places...

by representing

possible

For example,

are affected

in other

of spatial

is needed

and better

also that thinking

in their own

have advocated

the far and the near, of past events, a theory

futures

futures studies.

of space

theory-that

that

concurring

‘many

But it appears

it offers some earnest that what

While

issue of Futures pays less attention

This special

has written

that

and organizations

future’

or more

that a ‘geographical

the meaning

a better

and thus non-totalitarian

future;

wrote

that futurists

although

a theory

years’.

Imaginations’,‘”

tial,

between

follow.

the role of space and place

to judge

of the imagination,

will

may have paralleled

and to appreciate

onto

futures

This suggests that

utopias,

of the present and identify

in Futures16) observed

in such activities

in ‘Social

the Futures’.15

or better

better analysis

the future amongst individuals

‘Mapping

is not to call for more

more

across

there than

agenda,

for

are so many

rhetoric

disciplines

unless

and fields

is established. One

of the challenges

explanation

of how

years geographers organizing simulate

view

the growth

by theories

to be yet further localized

actions. patterns

metropolitan

of regions

patterns

examples grow

regions

from

models

to classical

transposition

in the way attempt

that

gravitation

are being

Cities

are claimed

from

seek to reproduce

the process

by which

of varying

size. The spatial

from

small

analysis

to sup-

can give rise to

features.

that emerge

of clusters

the

of self-

theories

decision-making

of familiar

a formal

note that over

structures

an amalgamation

and towns

Top-down

uncoordinated

of self-organizing

is to provide

as the basis for explanations

of cities.

by analogy how

science

and Hardwick

there has been another

that are reminiscent

The new

regional

Courtney

of theories

and change

that emphasize

global

and

Indeed,

used a variety

the organization

coordinated

simplest

have

evolve.

systems. Over the last decade

geographers planted

for geography

regions

a multitude

villages

and urban

even

of the

to large theory

of

the last half-century has been unable to replicate the actual empirical patterns that are observed. Batty sees this as having profound implications for planning.‘” Since it was institutionalized in Western societies some 100 years ago, this has remained a top-down activity. But this style is waning as societies become decentralized. The old concept of the city is changing as economic constraints on communication loosen and new technologies emerge

so that cities based on a single core are disappearing,

and are being

replaced

by

Perspectives

phenomena such as the Edge city and the world communication.

How we can theorize

on the future: M Batty and S Cole

cities with their global tentacles of

and model such spaces is Hall’s

perspective for

this geographic future. Broadly, the authors writing here are optimists

about the future, about the possibilities

for anticipating the future, and about their discipline forthright

in defending his predictions,

claiming

(or sub-discipline).

a substantive

Berry is the most

track record. In 1969

he

foresaw that ‘The essence of change is that we are moving into an era of telemobility, from

mechanical

environments

to electronic

environments...

the revolutionary

is not that they reduce the friction

they move the experience

There

itself...‘.

aspect of electronic

in moving goods and people, but that

is also a technologically

optimistic

flavour to

several of the papers, but is this out of place when so much of futures studies is so often subdued by gloom and doom? Meier calls his proposals for increasing food production in China ‘audacious’. But viewed in the light of Rimmer’s nese attitudes to modernization,

historical

explanation

be a topic of three papers in this issue-lsard,

also uses China’s history

of political

of the growing anticipation,

hension,

organization-is

that the world

surely

a reflection

about possibilities

at a time when many leading futurists

about deconstructing

others’ futures. this

Someone

deconstruct!

While

interpretation

to reveal biases and manipulations,

even appre-

for ‘prediction’ and for the future is

suggest that futures studies are primarily has to make the forecasts for others to

does not suggest that forecasts

and theories

phy, climate change, and so on. Although

deserve careful

there is still a need to pin down aspects

of the future for a host of mundane and practical purposes involving failures

as an exemplar

is at the dawn of ‘China’s Century’.

In many ways this optimism refreshing,

of Chi-

these proposals appear more feasible. That China, should

quantitative

economy, demogra-

analysts are rightly

humbled by

of forecasting, there have been successes, and the idea that we cannot forecast,

or that forecasting ultimately knowledge

is no more than a manipulative

manipulative is socially

exercise,

is itself a rhetorical

stance. It has been argued, for example, that maintaining or culturally

constructed

is simply

the mirror

and

that all

image of appealing

to nature as the ground for all knowledge claims. *’ Both approaches are distinctly

‘mod-

ern’ in that they subscribe to an image of the world that is cut up into domains, which from certain points of view can subsume all others. For some geographers, the contemporary outcry against determinism from the difficult messiness

represents nothing so much as an easy way out, an escape

challenge of trying to discover ultimate

of the human condition.

causes within

the ineluctable

It has been argued that the one-sided antipathy for

any and all deterministic features in the human realm is the chief unreasonable extreme in today’s prevailing geographic theory.22

Imagining

geographical

All the authors writing

futures here are attempting to link the past and present configuration

of

their understanding of geography, which is conceived in terms of spatial categories and relations in the general order of things, to the dramatic changes that are currently dominating global society. Although as editors we have been at pains to emphasize that this issue is simply one slice through a vast and complex landscape of geographical knowledge and imagination, what perhaps is most surprising is that a previously worked out and somewhat discredited paradigm as embodied within geography’s first quantitative revolution should still reveal such persistent and fascinating clues to the future. And per-

287

Perspectives

on the future:

haps even should

more

surprising

digm would

make practical

theories

ing theory locally’,

of very

provides

and systematic

insights

different

it is bringing

so central

to all good

systems,

which from

approaches

it is now quantitative bilities.

possible

revolutions

lowed

of these

phrase:

is founded

and social

have critique

papers,

‘To know

much

and traditions

to offer.

policy

relevant

and explicable in the kind

The papers

presented

and previous

positive

limits to our present at

optimistic

all; to imagine

and the

forecasting.

and which

about

hitherto, way

here suggest paradigms, enforce

act that

theorizing

of structured

in that they

globally,

that is clearly

than anything

knowledge

and

consider media

and good

and timely

assumed.

are profoundly

who

In this, the new

to good

media

and the emerg-

the kind of imagination

science,

flexible

with

of ‘think

for those

para-

thus providing

But computation

of current

is nothing

revolution

the computational

on the cliche

suggest that

can be conducted

ize space and suggest important in many

persuasions

understanding.

have

and space are more

The reasoned

in which

the past to the future

on the future

that they

the first quantitative

logic of its universality,

a basis for exercising

science

These perspectives the role of place

intellectual

a bridge

the way

theoretical

their own

provide

with

second.

the intrinsic

and develop

of complex now

associated

no one was able to anticipate

tools to enhance

formal

is that those

be one part of an emerging

Of course many

M Batty and S Co/e

that

but past

such possi-

which

emphas-

are embodied Thibault’s

hal-

is everything’.

Notes and references 1. 2. (. 4. 5 0.

7.

8. Y.

IO. 11. 12. 1 3. 14. 15. 1 f,. 17. 18.

288

In addition, by inviting leading academics from the disciplines to engage in futures studies, we hope to bring new ideas to futures studies, and to encourage their younger colleagues to try their hantl. L. Courteney and W. Hardwick, Self-organizing systems in geography: a response to Peterman, Protessioml Geographer 47(2), 218-220 (1995). D. Sui, GIS and positivism, post-positivism, and beyond, Urban C,eography 15(3), L-7 11’194). See Johnston in this issue. It is unfortunate that we have no female contributors, although several were invited. Peuyuet, D., It’s about time: a conceptual framework for the representation of temporal dynamlts 111 geographic information systems. Anna/s of the Association American Geographers, 1994, 84(l), 441 -461. Pred, A., Social reproduction and time geography of everyday life. In A Search for Common Ground, eds P. Could and G. Olsson. Pion, London, 1982, pp. 137-186. liagerstrand, T., What about people in regional Science! Papers and Proceedings of the Regional kience Association, 24, 7-24, 1Y70. Pect, K., Radical Geography, Methuen, London, 1988. Parkes, D. and Thrift, N., Putting time in its place. In Timing and Spacing Time, eds T. CarlsteIn, D. Parkes and N. Thrift. Edward Arnold, London, 1978, 11 l-1 29; Clark, A., rhree Centuries on the /s/,lnd. Toronto University Press, Toronto, Ontario, 1959. Cliff, A. and Ord, I., S/xt~,,/ Processes: Mode/s and App/ic ,ilfons. Pion, l.ondon, 1982. (‘ourtncy and Hardwick, op tit reference 2. Sui, op c-it. Tomlinson, R., CIS and geographers in the 1990s. The Canadian Geographer, 33, 290-299. (198Y). 1, Dobson, The geographic revolution: a retrospective on the age of automated geography, Profession,l/ Geogrq~her 45, 431439 (1993). Gregory, D., Geographical Imaginations. Blackwell, Oxford, 1995. 4712). C. Campell, Does quantum theory add to the geographic perspective.,z Professional Gengr+her 21hG217 (1995). K. Zimmerer, Human geography and the new ecology: the prosprxrt and promise of Integration, Annals of Americ an Geographers Association 84(l), 108-l 25 (1994). Bird R. el al., Mapping the Futures: Local Cultures, Global Change. Routledge, London, 1992. K. Slaughter, Futures as an interdisciplinary field or an occluded subject, Futures 26(7), 792 -7Yh ( 1994). tiarvey. D.. Social /ustice and the City. Edward Arnold, London, 1972, quoted in Gregory. op c It retcrencr 12. Gregory, 0~ c.it reference 12.

of

Perspectives

19. 20. 21. 22.

on the future: M Batty and S Cole

j. Portugali, The shrew environment, Science in Context 7(2), 307-326 (1994). M. Batty, New ways of looking at cities, Nature, 377, 574 (1995). Latour, B. We Have Never Been Modern. Harvester, Wheatsheaf, Hemel Hempstead, UK, 1993. Chappell, J., Geography and quantum physics. Professional Geographer, 47(2), 220-221, 1995; Peterman, W., Quantum theory and geography: what can Dr Bertlmann teach us?. Professional Geographer, 46(l), l-9, 1994.

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