Tornado warning: Understanding the National Weather Service’s communication strategies

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TornadoWarning: Understanding the National Weather Service’s communication strategies Brooke Fisher Liua,*, Anita Atwell Seatea, Irina Ilesb, Emina Herovicc a

University of Maryland, 4300 Chapel Drive, College Park, MD, 20740, United States National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, PO Box Number 266, 5245 Greenbelt Rd, College Park, MD, 20740, United States c Risk Communication and Resilience Program First-Year Innovation and Research Experience (FIRE), University of Maryland PO Box Number 266, 5245 Greenbelt Rd, College Park, MD, 20740, United States b

A R T I C LE I N FO

A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Crisis Fully functioning society theory Public relations Risk Tornado

This study explores the National Weather Service’s communication through a multi-sited rapid ethnography that extends the fully functioning society theory. National Weather Service field offices do not employ public information officers. Instead, forecasters predict the weather, craft messages, and build relationships with their publics. Scholars have called for public relations research that examines messages, including how crisis communication can help publics cope. Additionally, scholars have noted that all organizations need public relations, even if they do not employ formal public relations personnel. In our study, forecasters emphasized the need to build their publics’ tornado threat awareness and provided strategies to make weather science accessible. Forecasters discussed a variety of message strategies including avoiding fear appeals, humanizing the organization, and visualizing risks. Forecasters also built relationships with active publics through soliciting weather spotters and empowering them to prepare others for severe weather. Overall, findings expand knowledge about how organizations can employ strategic public relations to benefit society, thereby extending fully functioning society theory.

1. Introduction In a fully functioning society, public relations contributes to managing risk, communicating the consequences of crises, and reducing uncertainty (Heath, 2006; McKie & Heath, 2016; Palenchar, Heath, Levenshus, & Lemon, 2017). Disasters – such as tornadoes, tsunamis, and hurricanes – can devastate societies, but responsible public relations professionals can work with communities to mitigate harm and foster resilience. Organizations like the National Weather Service frequently communicate to help prepare their publics for severe weather, increasingly through social media (Olson et al., 2019). Yet, current theories provide minimal guidance on how risk and crisis messages can help people protect themselves and their communities during disasters (Coombs, 2016; Liu & Fraustino, 2014; Liu, Xu, Lim, & Egnoto, 2019). One emerging perspective, fully functioning society theory, unveils how organizations can fulfill public relations’ “higher obligation, as a profession, to serve the public good” (Halff & Gregory, 2015, p. 723). Fully functioning society theory has the potential to provide guidance on how risk and crisis communication messages can contribute to public safety

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during disasters (Heath, 2016), though limited prior research has explored this potential (Heath, Lee, & Ni, 2009; Logan, 2018; Palenchar & Heath, 2007). One reason for the lack of fully functioning society research at the message level may be that “the message variable in the public relations process has been largely overlooked by scholars” in general (Werder, 2005, p. 218). Neglecting messaging may be a legacy of early public relations theory building (Halff & Gregory, 2015), which called for scholars to turn away from publicity and media relations to focus on “the strategic management function through which organizations interact with their publics” (Grunig, Grunig, & Dozier, 2006, p. 21). The lion’s share of this strategic management work has focused on how organizations build relationships with their publics (e.g., Cheng, 2018). However, the rise of social media has led some scholars to call for more research conceptualizing public relations as “a foundational part of society” that provides information to, as well as builds relationships with, publics (Yang, Taylor, & Saffer, 2016, p. 147). Building off the nascent fully functioning society research, this study investigates how the National Weather Service’s messages can

Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: bfl[email protected] (B.F. Liu), [email protected] (A. Atwell Seate), [email protected] (I. Iles), [email protected] (E. Herovic).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubrev.2019.101879 Received 31 January 2019; Received in revised form 4 December 2019; Accepted 21 December 2019 0363-8111/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Brooke Fisher Liu, et al., Public Relations Review, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubrev.2019.101879

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behavior (Waymer, Cannon, & Curry, 2012). For nonprofit and government organizations contributing to a fully functioning society may mean taking a social requirement perspective given that these organizations’ goals are to advance society (Waymer et al., 2012). On the messaging front, Peñaloza de Brooks and Waymer (2009) found that messages focusing on publics’ pressing needs (e.g., water treatment, sewerage systems) may help establish organizational legitimacy.

help their publics prepare for tornadoes. The National Weather Service is an ideal organization for this study because its mission is to provide “weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy” (National Weather Service, 2016). In other words, the National Weather Service aims to contribute to a fully functioning society. Tornadoes are one of nature’s most violent storms (National Severe Storms Laboratory, 2019a). The United States has the most tornadoes out of any country in the world, with 800 tornadoes in an average year (National Weather Service, 2019a). Since the 2011 devastating tornado outbreak in Alabama, the National Weather Service has focused on the Southeastern U.S. to improve tornado messaging and forecasting for this region (National Severe Storms Laboratory, 2019b). In this study, we conducted multi-sited rapid ethnographic research (Halme, Kourula, Lindeman, Kallio, & Korsunova, 2016) at three weather forecast offices in the Southeastern U.S to uncover how public relations messages can contribute to a fully functioning society.

2.3. Responsible power, balance interests, and responsible advocacy The theory’s third premise is that public relations practitioners should responsibly use their power and control (Heath, 2006; Palenchar et al., 2017). In democracies, social media can contribute to a fully functioning public sphere through offering opportunities for engagement (Klyueva, 2016), which has also been noted in other public relations theoretical perspectives (e.g., Kent & Taylor, 1998). Through engagement, organizations can identify publics’ evolving and diverse expectations, value community voices, correct power differentials, and provide space for voice (Johnston & Lane, 2019; Palenchar et al., 2017). Organizations also can support authenticity by listening to community members, using diverse data to close feedback loops, and contribute relevantly to the community (Johnston & Lane, 2019). While there is a dearth of work indicating what message strategies support responsible use of power and control, recent theorizing by Palenchar et al. (2017) suggests that dialogue between risk bearers and risk managers is a fruitful avenue for future research. We support this line of inquiry because dialogue could provide insights into the types of messages that help publics navigate risks such as tornadoes. Relatedly, the fourth premise of the fully functioning society is that communities are constituted of conflicting and conjoined interests, and organizations and individuals need to balance their interests and those of others (Heath, 2006). In an analysis of how corporate and government organizations responded to the Flint water crisis, Logan (2018) found that organizations prioritized corporate persons over human persons, leading to severe harm that will last for generations. This finding is consistent with work by Boyd and Waymer (2011) who cautioned that organizations may not always live up to their potential in creating a fully functioning society, instead sending messages to their publics that conceal organizations’ interests. In line with responsible use of power and balanced interests, the fifth premise of the fully functioning society is that organizations should engage in responsible advocacy through varying degrees of dialogue (Palenchar et al., 2017). Specifically, organizations should “give the evidence, facts, identifications, and policy choices full potential for responsible and reflective review” (Heath, 2006, p. 108). The Flint water case is an example of responsible advocacy failure because the General Motors Corporation received access to clean water while residents were not informed about the high health risks of drinking tap water from the Flint River (Logan, 2018).

2. Literature review Heath (2006) proposed the fully functioning society theory to emphasize how public relations should serve communities’ needs. As Palenchar et al. (2017) argued, a society is fully functioning if “organizations and individuals serve [society] rather than it serving them” (p. 712). Heath (2006) proposed seven premises of how organizations can practice public relations for the good of society. Next, we describe each premise and relate them to messaging strategies during crises. 2.1. Bring order to uncertainty First, public relations should support management’s efforts to bring order to uncertainty through being responsive to others’ communication needs, being collaborative in decision-making, being willing to consider and advance others’ interests, and practicing strong relationship management (Heath, 2006). In the context of risk communication, the goals of public relations are providing education and sustaining quality organizational-public relationships to help make society more fully functional (Palenchar & Heath, 2007). Accordingly, organizations’ risk messages need to reflect community members’ decision-making expectations, rather than attempting to manipulate desired behaviors (Heath et al., 2009; Palenchar & Heath, 2007). Effective risk communication “brings sound scientific knowledge to be the servant of the public interest” (Heath et al., 2009, p. 129). During severe weather, such as tornadoes, the National Weather Service issues messages in the form of watches and warnings, which are distributed via local radio and television stations, broadcast over weather radios, and communicated via wireless emergency alerts. A challenging aspect to issuing warnings and other risk messages is communicating an urgent action for self-protection while accounting for storm uncertainty and publics’ diverse information needs (Jin, Austin, Vijaykumar, Jun, & Nowak, 2019; League et al., 2010; Palenchar & Heath, 2002). However, tailoring messages may be effective in increasing various forms of risk-related efficacy (Heath et al., 2009), as well as increasing motivations to comply with the message (Ahn, 2015). For example, Heath et al. (2009) found that message sensitivity (i.e., the perception that the message is sensitive to identityrelated concerns) positively predicted self-efficacy, expert efficacy, and community efficacy.

2.4. Foster communitas and shared narratives The sixth premise is that in a fully functioning society, organizations (and individuals) make instrumental contributions to society to foster communitas (Heath, 2006). To foster communitas, organizations engage in two-way communication “based on listening for and sharing valuable information as well as being responsive, respectful, candid, and honest” (Heath, 2006, p. 106). Organizations must also be trustworthy; engage in collaborative decision making with stakeholders; align their interests, rewards, and goals with those of their stakeholders; foster mutual understanding and agreement with their stakeholders; and support the community by being involved and invested in it. In the context of risk communication, communitas should include dialogue with risk bearers, especially marginalized publics (Palenchar et al., 2017). Through fostering communitas, organizations support the creation

2.2. Drive corporate responsibility practices The second premise of a fully functioning society is that public relations should drive sound corporate responsibility practices to establish organizational legitimacy and meet stakeholders’ expectations (Heath, 2006). In doing so, organizations incentivize stakeholders to also do good, rather than offering negative incentives to avoid bad 2

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of shared narratives among community members to lead to “enlightened choice” (Heath, 2006, p. 109). This sixth premise of the theory further asserts that narratives allow people to “know and act in predictable ways,” including during times of uncertainty (Heath, 2006, p. 109). For example, Waymer et al. (2012) found that black churches met their communities’ needs, but also served as community change agents through their online narratives. Relatedly, Guo (2017) found that the Boston Athletic Association helped facilitate community resilience after the marathon bombing by providing adjusting information on their Facebook page, by echoing publics’ restorative discourse, and by focusing on community’s needs. In short, Guo’s work shows that organizations can serve the public good by employing fully functioning society theory principles into their message design.

men), observed forecasters in their natural work spaces, and collected 151 social media posts issued by the three offices. Interviews averaged 65 min in length each and were professionally transcribed. During data collection, tornadoes occurred at each of our field offices, and the focus of our data collection was these three tornadoes. 3.2. Data analysis During formal analysis, the researchers created codes based on the literature review and inductively (Kvale & Brinkmann, 2009; Lindlof & Taylor, 2011). Dedoose®, a qualitative analysis program, was used to code all of the data. Researchers employed Corbin and Strauss (2014) analytical strategies whereby they constantly reflected on the data during coding, looked for negative-case examples, and inquired about the implications of participants’ experiences during the coding process. In reporting the results, researchers applied pseudonyms to protect participants’ identities.

2.5. Moving the theory forward The fully functioning society is a normative theory that has been used in limited empirical research (e.g., Logan, 2018; Waymer et al., 2012). More typically, scholars have employed the theory as a foundation without direct empirical validation (Johnston & Lane, 2019; Klyueva, 2016; Yang et al., 2016).

4. Results 4.1. Communicate responsibly The foundation of fully functioning society theory is that public relations contributes to managing risks through responsible communication (Heath, 2006; McKie & Heath, 2016). According to the theory, effective risk communication “brings sound scientific knowledge to be the servant of the public interest” (Heath et al., 2009, p. 129). In our study, National Weather Service forecasters communicate responsibly through motivating action and avoiding fear appeals.

2.6. Research questions Given the literature reviewed, we ask the following questions: RQ1: What message strategies do National Weather Service forecasters employ to communicate tornado risks? RQ2: To what extent does the National Weather Service’s tornado risk communication contribute to a fully functioning society?

4.1.1. Motivate action When a threat is imminent, forecasters responsibly advocate through educating the public about what actions they can immediately take to protect their lives. Forecasters motivate action through careful word choices, by updating tornado event timing, by providing specific precautions publics should take, and by employing their personal social media channels.

3. Method To answer our research questions, this project took a qualitative approach, which enables researchers to deeply investigate phenomena of interest (Lindlof & Taylor, 2011). Researchers engaged in ethnographic field research at three weather field offices in the Southeastern U.S. Ethnography enables constant movement among theory development, data collection, and data analysis because it straddles a structured research design with an “improvised inquisitive adventure” (Harrison, 2014, p. 224). Ethnographers access naturally occurring events (Emerson, Fretz, & Shaw, 2011), which provides valuable context for data interpretation (Quarantelli, 2002). On-site disaster fieldwork allows ethnographers to access documents and other information that may be difficult to access or even lost after an emergency is resolved (Horsley, 2012). In this study, we conducted a multi-sited rapid ethnography, which is a “2-4 week ethnographic study conducted sequentially at multiple sites, consulting independent informants and involving interactive shadowing, observation, and interview data supplemented by secondary data” (Halme et al., 2016, p. 115). This approach allows for gathering insights and understanding from multiple sites, while recognizing time and budget constraints that researchers and participants face (Halme et al., 2016).

4.1.2. Word choices Forecasters discussed how the words they use to convey tornado threats can impact whether their publics take action. As Kennedy shared: “We've tried several things. This has been National Weather Service-wide. We've tried the enhanced wording and we've tried tornado emergency, and I think those are working. But, again, we can never make people take action.” In their social media posts, forecasters used all capital letters, emphasized the importance of taking action, communicated that the radar detected a tornado, shared measurements (e.g., size of hail size), used exclamation points, and emphasized the tornado risk (see Table 1 below). 4.1.3. Update timing Providing updates on the timing of a potential tornado is another way forecasters motivate action via their social media. As Laurel explained: “People want to know what time… And so we do the best we can. Convey the threat, do the best you can to tell them what time it's going to happen.” Timing remains a challenge on social media, especially Facebook. Forecasters need to proactively mark prior messages as expired so that incorrect timing information is not circulating on their social media channels. Justin also noted that it is a slippery slope to update information too often. He explained the challenge as follows:

3.1. Data collection procedures Before deployment, the research team received Institutional Review Board approval to conduct and record interviews, record conversations, take videos and photos, and collect documents while in the field, with informed consent. Once in the field, researchers spent nine days in Weather Forecast Office A (i.e., 60 hours); four days at Weather Forecast Office B (i.e., 30 hours); and four days at Weather Forecast Office C (i.e., 37 hours). We selected these offices because they represent diverse approaches to forecasting and tornado communication. While in the field, the team conducted 32 interviews (7 women; 25

It's like a waterfall of data coming in. These models are all coming in at different times, and we're able to look at the information as it's coming in. For consistency, we try to just hold off and just wait to make changes on a less frequent scale for consistency, so that is a challenge that we face. We want to always give them the latest 3

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Table 1 Motivate Action. Word Choices Tactics

Examples

All capital letters and explanation points

VERY STRONG ROTATION AND LIKELY TORNADO in northern Calhoun County. If you are north of Jacksonville along or near highway 21 (west and east) SHELTER NOW!! #alwx Radar indicates a tornado could develop at any time in western Stewart County. Dover is in the path of this circulation. Take shelter! TORNADO WARNING FOR BLOUNT COUNTY! Hail to 2.50" also expected. TAKE SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND COVER YOURSELF. Golfball-sized hail reported with this storm A CONFIRMED AND DANGEROUS tornado is heading into Haralson county. Everyone in the path of this storm including the cities of Tallapoosa and Bremen should TAKE COVER NOW!!! #gawx

Radar detection and explanation points Share measurements, all capital letters, and explanation points Emphasized tornado risk and all capital letters

out it wasn't. It was a misapplication of new technology and the tornado was misdiagnosed…She took shelter outside of her house, went into a storm drain, and drowned.

information, but we don't want to look like it's inconsistent. 4.1.4. Precautionary measures The heart of a tornado warning is to take a recommended protective action, typically shelter in place for people living in fixed homes (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, n.d.). Forecasters motivate precautionary measures that their publics can take before a warning is issued, such as knowing where you are on a map, keeping your phone turned on to receive warnings while you sleep, and having a plan to shelter when warnings are issued. See Fig. 1 for examples of how forecasters recommend precautionary measures in their social media.

One proactive strategy to minimize fear before severe weather is conducting community outreach and education so community members are better prepared for severe weather. 4.1.7. Bring order to uncertainty A premise of the fully functioning society theory is that organizations should bring order to uncertainty (Heath, 2006). In our study, National Weather Service forecasters must first alert their publics to potential threats before they can address community members’ concerns about a threat. We also found that forecasters bring order to uncertainty through visualizing the risk.

4.1.5. Personal networks Some forecasters discussed the tactic of communicating via their personal social media to encourage action taking. As Kyle shared:

4.1.8. Build threat awareness Building tornado threat awareness is a pre-cursor to bringing order to uncertainty. For example, Tash explained:

When we were headed into this event [the office’s last tornado], I was sharing a couple of graphics from our office because I find that if it's coming directly from me, a meteorologist, people tend to think, ‘Well, if he's posting this, then it must serious.’

If there's not a threat right now, but we know there's going to be a threat in the relatively near future, it just seems like that's a good time to try to remind people what you should be doing, where you should be going.

Other forecasters shared that they tweet on their personal account when there are “high impact” or “big” events that are likely to hit where they live.

Building awareness can be as simple as reminding people what the difference is between a watch and a warning. Often, building threat awareness emphasizes storm timing. See Table 2 for additional examples of building threat awareness. Building tornado threat awareness is especially important because the National Weather Service can be an authoritative and accurate source on social media. As Drew shared:

4.1.6. Avoid fear appeals to avoid fear mongering A strategy that forecasters discussed was avoiding fear mongering in order to communicate responsibly. As Micah summarized: Something we definitely don't try to do though is fear monger. We don't want to try to say it like, ‘Hey everybody, there's going to be a ton of tornadoes. There's going to be a ton of death and destruction today. Take this seriously or something bad is going to happen.’ We don't engage in that 'cause that's not our job.

There are a lot of people on social media that put fake or false information out there. It's good that people know, ‘Okay, I'm looking at this graphic of a tornado watch. It came from the National Weather Service. They're not hyping, or lying, or anything like that.’

To avoid fear mongering, forecasters report the data they have. They also, at times, need to help calm down their publics. As Avery noted:

Several forecasters noted that Twitter is better for real-time threat awareness, compared to Facebook. As Jo stated, Twitter’s “up-to-date, real-time type environment that it's in” is a better fit for issuing timesensitive information. As previously noted, to mitigate any potential negative effects of publics viewing outdated social media posts, especially on Facebook, forecasters edit their prior posts to add language such as “*** EXPIRED ***” and “***THIS POST IS OUTDATED.***” Some forecasters also time stamp their posts.

We do get a lot of phone calls from people. What I find is that there is a common core of people that tend to call all the time out of fear or out of for whatever reason they want to call. I think we do a pretty good job of trying to manage that and handle that because it can be overwhelming when you're dealing with everything else as well. Forecasters emphasized that some broadcast media employ fear mongering during tornadoes, which makes it even more important for National Weather Service forecasters to avoid this risk communication strategy. Kyle shared the example of a 75-year-old resident, noting:

4.1.9. Visualize the risk Once awareness is built, forecasters extensively discussed the strategy of visualizing tornado risks to quickly and accurately convey threats. Visualizing the risk enables forecasters to help their publics mitigate tornado uncertainty. As Micah explained:

She was so scared of the television coverage on The Weather Channel saying a tornado was heading toward her, which it turned

We've found graphics to be extremely useful a lot of times…You 4

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Table 2 Build Threat Awareness. Examples “Threat for some severe storms Tuesday night for areas N of #I85. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out across the Slight Risk area. #alwx” “This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Tennessee! Please join us today at 230 pm here on our Facebook page at for a joint Facebook Live with the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency!” “We'll be doing a Facebook Live this evening at 7 P M with an update on the severe weather risk on Saturday evening/night - join us then for the latest!” “Confidence has grown in the large hail threat (& overall severe threat) for Monday afternoon/evening…hence the upgrade to an enhanced risk. The tornado threat is still unclear, but appears to be trending a bit higher. Stay up-to-date on the latest info!” “Northern Blount County, Etowah and Cherokee Counties need to be closely monitoring the weather. A cluster of severe storms with a history of very large hail and tornadoes are approaching. Please stay tuned for possible warnings! #alwx”

Visuals, like photos, can be especially helpful for people to see what is happening now (i.e., in the current storm environment) and even prepare for the next tornado. Forecasters use the following visuals in their social media to convey tornado risk: tornado track maps and Geographic Information System (GIS) data, radar loops, radar scans, and graphics displaying areas at risk for tornadoes and likely threat timing. Some of these were moving visuals in Graphic Interchange Format (GIFs). See Fig. 2 for examples of how forecasters visualize risk in their social media. When designing visuals, forecasters recommended “using the least amount of text” (Kennedy); “more bullet points, bold stuff, capitalize things; making words useful like tornadoes today” (Avery); “using color gradient slide bars, form low, medium, and high” to depict risk; and “clearly stating the threat” (Ryan). Forecasters also recommended using consistent and professional formatting. Forecasters further explained that words without graphics could help publics visualize their risk for severe weather, such as the following tweet from one office in our sample: “hail of 1″+ confirmed with this storm!” In order to be successful, forecasters discussed how the visualizing risk strategy needs to be hyper-local. From a tactical perspective, visualizing the risk through Facebook Live videos can overcome the challenge of social media users not being alerted about new content. Live or recorded videos also are a method for effectively visualizing risks. For example, Barrett noted: “You can convey seriousness if you're being live as a person.” One challenge that forecasters mentioned in visualizing risks is low map literacy among their publics. To combat this challenge, forecasters attempt to build map literacy via their social media. They use and explain color shading to indicate counties at risk for tornadoes in their posts. Forecasters also provide maps during quiet weather and urge their publics to learn where their county is on a map. For example, one office posted on Facebook: Do you know where you are on a map? It's an important step in being weather-ready! Doing so will help you understand your forecast and tell when severe weather is heading your way. How about types of bad weather that can affect you through the year? We discuss in this video. Click the 'CC' button to enable captioning for this video. 4.2. Responsibly advocate through science translation

Fig. 1. Recommend Precautionary Measures Examples.

The fully functioning society theory calls for organizations to engage in responsible advocacy through varying degrees of dialogue. Related premises of the theory are that public relations should responsibly use power and balance interests (Heath, 2006; Palenchar

don't have to read a long discussion to understand what's going on… We get as much information out there that demands less attention from people. 5

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Fig. 2. Visualize the Risk Examples.

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Table 3 Science Translation. Tactics

Examples

Explain radar

This HPX radar loop from Saturday evening shows 3 of 4 #tornadoes that struck #MiddleTennessee on 2/24/18. Note the strong circulations west of Clarksville (EF1), just east of Clarksville (EF2), and east of Adams (EF1). You can also see the EF2 #tornado that hit Hopkinsville, KY It's much COLDER outside this morning, with a few showers to deal with following the passage of the "back door" front. Breezy easterly winds will continue during the day, and we can't rule out a few gusts up to 30mph. A few isolated showers will also remain in the forecast. #alwx NEW: our team in the field is indicating the Jacksonville tornado had a peak intensity of EF-2/winds near 130mph, which continued to/ beyond the GA state line. The same storm spawned additional separate tornadoes upstream/to Ashville and I-59 #alwx Data continues to come in from the weather balloon instruments in the air, the atmosphere is becoming more unstable across central Alabama. We will continue to review this information and refine the forecast.

Explain weather phenomena

Explain science Showcase scientific data collection

think sometimes that picks up people because we're not robot scientist anymore. We had a really popular post that was like a spin off from Game of Thrones, so it was like ‘winter is coming’ for a winter gig that we were having, and that went viral. I think that reaches anybody.

et al., 2017). Forecasters responsibly advocated through their science translation, as further discussed below. In translating science, forecasters responsibly advocate about making their information accessible to their publics. Several forecasters shared that they think about whether family members would understand a post, and that guides how they approach social media. For example, Hayden said: “I ask myself, will my mom understand this graphic?” In their social media, other examples of how forecasters translate science can be found (see Table 3). Forecasters share radar images and explain what the radar means in terms of weather threats. They explain weather phenomena such as a “back door” front. They also explain the science behind their work, such as conducting tornado damage assessments and collecting data about the atmosphere via weather balloons. Forecasters showcase scientific data collection to advance the science of meteorology. Despite focusing on translating science, forecasters shared that they sometimes struggle with this translation work. As Justin emphasized: “As a scientist, I'm very technical, okay? It's hard for me sometimes to break things down.” Forecasters also discussed a tension between scientific complexity and effectively breaking down the science.

In addition to humorous or fun posts, forecasters discussed connecting the weather to current special weather events (e.g., solar eclipses) or events in their communities. To further humanize their organization, forecasters post tornado throwbacks, such as: “Today (March 24th) in Georgia weather history: The Governor's Tornado.” Offices also showed what their forecasters are doing when they are out of the office, such as conducting tornado damage assessment surveys. 4.3.3. Admit errors Humanizing the organization further occurs through admitting errors. Errors are a part of forecasting simply because the weather is uncertain. As Micah shared: But it's a tough job, and so we're here trying to do the best that we can at any given time, and like I said predicting the future is hard. One analogy I like to do, anytime somebody says, ‘Oh, you got the temperature wrong, or the rain forecast wrong.’ I always like to say, ‘Well, look at your NCAA bracket. It's not always easy to predict the future.’

4.3. Drive corporate responsibility practices through humanizing the organization Another premise of a fully functioning society is that public relations should drive sound corporate responsibility practices to establish organizational legitimacy and meet stakeholders’ expectations (Heath, 2006). In our study, forecasters establish their legitimacy through humanizing their organization. Forecasters discussed humanizing the organization as an important risk communication strategy to foster organizational legitimacy, and employed this strategy in a variety of ways further discussed below. While forecasters support humanizing the organization as a risk communication strategy, some indicated that it was not appropriate to do so during severe weather events. For example, Ryan shared: “When it comes to severe weather threats, it's almost like you need to keep to the cookie cutter, so that people know this isn't a joke; take it seriously, kind of thing.”

When admitting errors, forecasters can take the opportunity to provide weather education. As, Avery noted: “If they [a social media follower] are upset, and to a point they may be upset, we just try to address it and use it as an educational tool to try to explain why certain things happen.” Multiple forecasters, however, distinguished between the positive practice of admitting errors and the nonproductive practice of interacting with trolls. As Reagan explained: “If it's clearly trolling we would just ignore it. If they have a legitimate question, we'll try to answer it the best we can…If it's anything inappropriate or something, we just delete it or hide the comment.” However, forecasters noted those problematic members of the public are rare and that other community members oftentimes respond positively on behalf of the organization.

4.3.1. Showcase personalities Through humanizing, forecasters showcase their personalities and can build stronger relationships with their publics. As Bailey explained: “Any time that they can associate who we are as people putting these warnings out, that these aren't just computers issuing these warnings… So if they associate us as people that they trust, I think they're more likely to heed what we say.”

4.3.4. Express compassion A few forecasters discussed expressing compassion as an important risk communication strategy to humanize the organization. During severe weather, Barrett recommended that forecasters “show that we want to make sure that you are okay, so please do this, right now.” Compassion is also important after storms end. As Laurel explained: “If there's been people killed then you walk very gingerly. This is not the time for funny Facebook posts.” As another example, Parker recommended that when conducting tornado damage assessment surveys: “Give them a hug [people with destroyed property]. It’s a government agency and we’re not just skinny ties and black suits.” Additionally, Shel shared: “We live here too. This is our community. We care about our neighbors.”

4.3.2. Have fun during quiet weather Humanizing the organization occurs through making social media posts “fun” during quiet weather. For example, Charlie shared: For holidays, we try to do something that's a little bit more fun. I 7

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way communication via social media. One challenge to fostering communitas through social media is that not all publics, of course, are on social media. Forecasters repeatedly referred to their social media followers as “weather enthusiasts” and “weather weenies,” rather than diverse members of the public. Additionally, forecasters can have more social media followers from urban rather than rural areas. Another challenge is that forecasters rarely have the time and skillset to tailor their risk communication message for diverse publics, which may inhibit their ability to foster communitas. Instead, they primarily rely on partnerships with emergency managers, broadcast media, and volunteers to tailor risk communication. For example, Avery shared:

4.4. Foster communitas To foster communitas, organizations engage in dialogue and create shared narratives (Heath, 2006). Forecasters further foster communitas through asking for help and engaging with citizens on social media and at community events. 4.4.1. Ask for help and recruit volunteers Forecasters asked for help from the community as a way to engage with their publics, improve their forecasting, and responsibly share power. For example, one office tweeted: We are still gathering storm reports from Saturday's severe storms. If you have any damage reports or photos you'd like to share with us, please reply below with a location, time, and photo (if you have one) plus use hashtag #tspotter!

I'm sure there's a whole section and population that we're not reaching out to like we should…We're just doing our best to work with our partners, and that's 'cause we have to rely on our emergency managers, first responders, to help push that information out to their locals and make sure that they're prepared.

Some forecasters empower their office’s social media followers help others to take action. For example, Taylor recommended:

Notwithstanding, some forecasters develop tailored social media messages for mobile home residents. Additionally, some Warning Forecast Offices attempt to reach non-English speakers and the hearingimpaired through working with partners to communicate warnings via social media. However, forecasters have to be careful that one office is not providing special services that other offices cannot provide. As Drew explained:

We see our regulars, you know, tweeting out information and those are the folks that are getting the message. How can we leverage their interests and get the message and the information to other folks in their network that don't necessarily always get it? As another example, Hayden stated: “Graphics are action based. We’re expecting nighttime tornadoes. Telling people what to do. They can then bully other people to take action.” Forecasters also invited their active publics to participate in their spotter networks through announcing training events. These spotter networks are instrumental to warning decision-making. As Justin explained during their office’s last tornado event:

If I started doing Facebook live with interpreters, then people in other parts of the country could start asking their weather office, 'Why aren't you offering this?'…It sets up a situation where we would be providing the special service that other offices weren't capable of doing.

We were trying to assimilate the best information we could, because that helps the radar meteorologists, because what they see on radar they can confirm with the spotter reports and mentally make that assessment about what is going on. It helps them greatly increase confidence if what they're looking at jives with what's happening on the ground.

4.4.3. Communitas through face-to-face engagements Forecasters also foster communitas through face-to-face engagements with members of the public, such as Severe Weather Awareness Days, school tours of their offices, and hosting booths at state fairs. As Anna observed: “I get a lot of feedback at that Severe Weather Day that I mentioned. Because we have a lot of what we call weather weenies that come out to that. And they're very good at giving good feedback.” Sometimes, communitas flows between on and offline interactions. For example, Laurel recounted how his office posted on Facebook about a college group visiting his Weather Forecast Office late at night, and someone responded, “How can I get a ticket to this?” Through that interaction, the office created “Evenings at the Weather Service,” which has become one of their signature outreach events. Despite sharing success stories, forecasters across the board emphasized that it is challenging building relationships with community members because of resource constraints.

After severe weather, forecasters validate why volunteers are important to their work through expressing appreciation. For example, one office tweeted: “We greatly appreciate all the storm reports and scientific data/imagery from yesterday's storms!” 4.4.2. Communitas through social media In addition to asking for help and recruiting volunteers via social media, forecasters also employ social media to engage in two-way communication with their publics. Most often, they engage in two-way communication to answer questions and to receive reports about severe weather. Reagan explained: We use [social media] a lot, kind of two-way. We try to post a lot leading up to [an event] and during. We answer questions, and then we get reports…that's how we usually know when something's going on.

5. Discussion and conclusion Public relations scholars have called for research that helps understand how organizations can help their publics better cope with risks and crises (Coombs, 2016; Liu & Fraustino, 2014), especially research that advances knowledge about public relations in the “real world” (Heath et al., 2009; Manias-Muňoz, Jin, & Reber, 2019). In a fully functioning society, public relations contributes to managing risk, communicating the consequences of crises, and reducing uncertainty (Heath, 2006; McKie & Heath, 2016; Palenchar et al., 2017). As Edwards (2011) noted, research needs to uncover how organizations employ public relations to benefit society regardless of whether the public relations function is “formally constituted” within organizations (p. 22). In this study, we answered these calls through examining how National Weather Service forecasters help their publics prepare for and respond to tornadoes, which can have devastating impacts on

Some forecast offices are approved to use Facebook Live videos, which helps visualize risks. These live videos also support communitas. As Drew noted: “People really like the live videos, and we take time to do a quick Q and A, so that helps a lot too.” In some cases, active publics support communitas by responding to others’ questions on Warning Forecast Offices’ social media sites. As Alex explained: We actually have weather enthusiasts who will take on that. They'll help respond to other people. I go back and see that a lot, where people have asked questions, we just can't get to it, and I'll see other people have helped those others. These active publics are especially important during severe weather events when forecasters often do not have the time to engage in two8

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communities. Almost all of NWS’s messages are targeted at “general publics” (Kruckeberg & Vujnovic, 2010, p. 120) because organizations with public safety missions like the National Weather Service attempt to communicate and build relationships with every individual in society. Some messages, however, are targeted at active publics, as further discussed below.

5.1.3. Translate science In their risk communication, forecasters attempt to make meteorological science accessible to their publics through science translation, such as explaining phenomena related to severe storms. Forecasters shared how they sometimes struggle with science translation, revealing a desire to responsibly use their power to advocate for appropriate protective action taking. Prior research indicates that forecasters are wise to be concerned about the effects of their science translation. When science is oversimplified by translating technical jargon and omitting complex information, an easiness effect may occur. This effect manifests itself as overconfidence such that individuals conclude that they can rely more on their own judgment and less on that of experts because science does not appear to be that difficult anymore (Scharrer, Rupieper, Stadtler, & Bromme, 2017). It is an empirical question whether this phenomenon occurs in the context of forecasters’ science translation, indicating the critical importance of message evaluation research. Forecasters in our study lamented their inability to assess whether their messages are successfully saving lives, and called for researchers to help them rigorously evaluate their risk communication strategies.

5.1. Communicating about tornadoes for a fully functioning society Our two research questions examined what message strategies forecasters employ to communicate about tornado risks and inquired whether these strategies contribute to a fully functioning society. Warning messages must urgently communicate how publics can protect themselves while accounting for uncertainty inherent in chaotic events (League et al., 2010; Palenchar & Heath, 2002). Prior research, however, has not comprehensively identified communication strategies organizations can employ to disseminate warnings, thereby contributing to a fully functioning society. We found that forecasters employ a variety of risk communication strategies, discussed below, to meet the premises of the fully functioning society theory (Heath, 2006). Our findings add to the nascent research on how message strategies contribute to functional societies (Boyd & Waymer, 2011; Logan, 2018; Peñaloza de Brooks & Waymer, 2009; Waymer et al., 2012), as well as addresses the dearth of public relations theory on messaging (Werder, 2005).

5.1.4. Motivate action In their warnings, forecasters attempt to responsibly use their power and control to motivate their publics to take appropriate actions, such as seeking a safe shelter. They motivate action through careful word choices; by updating tornado event timing; by providing specific precautions publics should take; and by employing their personal social media channels to communicate about risks. Future research should test which of these strategies motivate behaviors that optimally contribute to a fully functioning society, such as families taking protective actions like sheltering in place and neighbors alerting each other to impending severe weather. This also suggests that taking a network approach to understanding these relationships would be beneficial (e.g., Yang et al., 2016). It could be that these strategies, when coupled with other message design features, such as providing visual information, work together in motivating publics to take protective action during tornadoes. Though this is conjecture, our suggestion is consistent with scholarship finding that visual exemplars are effective in motivating behavioral intentions when presented alongside base-rate information in the context of a food contamination crisis (Spence, Lachlan, Sellnow, Rice, & Seeger, 2017). Most of forecasters’ risk communication aimed at motivating actions targets general publics, but one approach targets active publics: empower followers to communicate risks through their personal networks. Palenchar and Heath (2007) advocated for collaborative risk communication and decision making in fully functioning societies. In this study, we show how message strategies can support this goal. Additionally, Heath (2006) conceptualized communitas as organizations engaging in two-way communication with their publics while being responsible, respectful, candid, and honest. We found that forecasters empower publics to communicate about risks in their personal networks, thereby creating an opportunity for two-way communication among publics without an organizational presence. This compliments work by Guo (2017) who showed that one way the Boston Athletic Associated fostered community resilience after the Boston Marathon Bombing was fostering a digital community where their organizational needs were decentered. We also found that forecasters’ active publics organically respond to questions posed for forecasters on social media when forecasters do not have the bandwidth to respond to these questions during severe weather. Therefore, communitas can be fostered by organizational social media, as prior research in this area has noted (Klyueva, 2016) and is inherent in dialogic communication theory (Kent & Taylor, 1998). We add that organizations can provide reliable information for community members to share on their own personal social media networks to foster communitas. Additionally, communitas may occur organically in

5.1.1. Build threat awareness Forecasters build threat awareness well before they issue a warning. In doing so, they assist their publics in preparing for risks. If people are not aware of a severe weather threat, they have not yet reached the point where they need public relations to help bring order to uncertainty, as advocated by the fully function society theory (Heath, 2006). Therefore, we add a new premise to the fully functioning society theory finding that sometimes public relations needs to build threat awareness before helping publics manage threats. In discussing how to build threat awareness, forecasters noted that Twitter is a better social media channel for real-time awareness than Facebook, as the Facebook algorithm may delay when a post is shown to a follower (Beasley, 2018). To mitigate the risk of publics viewing outdated social media posts, forecasters add language to their prior posts to indicate that they are expired or outdated. 5.1.2. Visualize the risk Forecasters visualize tornado risk to quickly and accurately convey threats, thereby aiming to bring order to uncertainty. Through extensive use of infographics, forecasters can convey necessary information while demanding less cognitive processing from publics (compared to text-only messages). Photos, GIS data, radar loops, and radar scans can help publics see what is happening during a severe weather event and motivate protective action. In order to be successful, forecasters discussed how the visualizing risk strategy needs to be hyper-local, emphasizing the importance of understanding community members’ needs through responsible advocacy (Heath, 2006). Forecasters also need to use their power and control responsibly (Heath, 2006) through improving their publics’ visual literacy (e.g., map literacy). Forecasters explained that words without visuals could also help publics visualize their risk for severe weather (e.g., communicating hail size). Forecasters further minimize the amount of text they have in their social media posts through formatting approaches such as bolding and bulleting. When used appropriately and sparingly, writing techniques like bullet points can aide in recall of scientific information (Kozak & Hartley, 2011). Scholars have called for additional research on how organizations can effectively employ visuals in their crisis communication (Coombs & Holliday, 2011; Jin, Austin, Guidry, & Parrish, 2017; Liu et al., 2017). Here we begin to answer that call through showing how forecasters’ visuals aim to concisely and effectively communicate risk. 9

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5.1.8. Admit errors Forecasters admitted errors, when they occurred, to further responsibly employ their power. Prior research argued that when organizations connect lessons learned from crises with their core values, organizations have the potential to become stronger after crises (e.g., Seeger, Ulmer, Novak, & Sellnow, 2005; Ulmer, Sellnow, & Seeger, 2015). Admitting mistakes may also improve the National Weather Service’s reputation. When organizations apologize for wrongdoings, they can improve how publics evaluate their crisis response (Benoit, 1995; Coombs, 2012). Therefore, responsibly using power, as advocated in the fully functioning society theory (Heath, 2006), may also produce other positive outcomes such as greater public trust in the Weather Service, which future research should test.

public-to-public communication, when organizations provide a space for community dialogue about important issues like risks.

5.1.5. Ask for help and recruit volunteers The National Weather Service recruits volunteers through their SKYWARN Storm Spotter Program. Trained spotters provide severe weather reports to the National Weather Service (National Weather Service, 2019b). In our study, forecasters asked for help from their community of spotters as a way to engage with their active publics and improve their forecasting, as well as help spread forecasts to others. In doing so, they responsibly shared power, as advocated for in a fully functioning society (Heath, 2006). Importantly, responsibly sharing power requires active, supportive publics who are interested in helping the Weather Service.

5.1.9. Foster communitas Forecasters rely on social media, spotter trainings, and special events to build relationships with their publics. Fully functioning society theory advocates for the importance of building community through shared narratives (Heath, 2006). Forecasters in our study acknowledged that the majority of their risk communication targets the general public, with very few messages for publics with special needs (e.g., mobile home residents, non-English speakers, and deaf and hardof-hearing residents). They are constrained by resources, especially personnel, and organizational structures that encourage similar communication coming from neighboring offices. Building community through shared narratives is an area for growth for the Weather Service. Building partnerships with community groups and other government agencies is one avenue for overcoming this gap, as indicated by some of our research participants. Part of a fully functioning society is balancing interests of all community members (Heath, 2006), including those with special needs (Palenchar et al., 2017). Some forecasters advocated for the importance of expressing compassion for building communitas. According to these forecasters, expressing compassion helps show their publics that they care about them. Compassion falls within situational crisis communication theory’s adjusting information, which is an under-researched crisis communication strategy (Ma & Zhan, 2016). Future research is needed to test whether expressing compassion builds trust between forecasters and their publics, thereby contributing to community building, as advocated in fully functioning society theory (Heath, 2006).

5.1.6. Humanize the organization Forecasters discussed humanizing the organization as an important risk communication strategy to foster organizational legitimacy, and important precursor to driving responsible organizational practices (Heath, 2006). Through humanizing the organization, forecasters display their personalities, including with humor. Prior research is mixed regarding the effectiveness of humor appeals, especially in a risk communication context (Fraustino & Ma, 2015; Moyer-Gusé, Robinson, & Mcknight, 2018; Xiao, Cauberghe, & Hudders, 2018). Of note, humor has been found to be especially effective in building strong relationships between organizations and their publics (e.g., Eisend, 2011; Ge & Gretzel, 2018; Speck, 1990), though this positive benefit has not been tested in a risk communication context. Furthermore, prior research found that employing conversational human voice on organizational blogs was positively associated with relationship management theory outcomes (i.e., trust, satisfaction, commitment, and control mutuality) (Kelleher, 2009). Clearly, future research is needed to test the potential positive outcomes of humanizing the organization during quiet weather as well as any unanticipated negative outcomes.

5.1.7. Avoid fear appeals Forecasters adamantly opposed employing fear appeals in their risk communication in line with the corporate responsibility practices advocated for in a fully functioning society (Heath, 2006). This is consistent with Jin et al. (2019) who found that public health information officers did not want to “scare people” while accurately conveying risk severity (p. 171). Forecasters in our study expressed concern that “fear mongering” would damage the National Weather Service’s reputation as an authoritative source for severe weather information and, overall, would be an ineffective persuasive message strategy. Their interpretation is consistent with previous research suggesting that fear appeal tornadic messages are perceived as less credible (compared to non-fear appeal messages) (Perreault, Houston, & Wilkins, 2014). On the other hand, the literature is clear that fear appeals are efficacious when they include efficacy statements (Meczkowski & Dillard, 2017; Tannenbaum et al., 2015), which have not been tested in a tornado context. Fully functioning research alludes that message tailoring may be another concept to consider when evaluating fear appeals as a communication strategy. Specifically, Heath et al. (2009) found that when publics perceived emergency messages as tailored to relevant group identities, such as race/ethnicity (i.e., message sensitivity), there were higher levels of self-, expert, and community efficacy. This may suggest that fear appeals need to be tailored to important group identities to be effective at motivating appropriate protective action. Hence, future research should explore to what extent fear appeals are (in)effective messages strategies for the National Weather Service. In doing so, research could extend our knowledge on how message strategies can support, rather than hinder, corporate responsibility practices as advocated for in the fully function society theory (Heath, 2006).

5.2. Limitations This research is limited by several factors. The study examined one severe weather threat and the findings about tornadoes may not apply to other threats. In taking an ethnographic approach, we were able to dive deeply into how three Weather Forecast Offices communicate. However, our results may not be transferrable to other forecasting contexts. Additionally, the findings apply to the U.S., and additional research is needed globally. Most significantly, this research does not identify which risk and crisis communication strategies are most effective in preparing communities for severe weather, which future research needs to explore. 5.3. Conclusion Through multi-sited rapid ethnographic research, we closely examined how three Weather Forecast Offices communicate with their publics during “real-world” tornado events. We identified the following risk communication strategies in support of a fully functioning society: (1) communicate responsibly (motivate action and avoid fear appeals), (2) bring order to uncertainty (build threat awareness and visualize the risk), (3) translate science; (4) humanize the organization (showcase personalities, have fun during quiet weather, admit errors, and express compassion), and (5) foster communitas (ask for help, recruit volunteers, and engage with citizens 10

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on and offline). Forecasters in our study repeatedly implored the scholarly community to provide more evidence-based guidance on how their risk communication can mitigate harm during severe weather, echoing similar calls from researchers (e.g., Coombs, 2016; Liu & Fraustino, 2014). This study adds to our nascent body of knowledge about how risk communication can contribute to a fully functioning society and echoes calls for additional public relations research for the public good.

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