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Toward a better understanding of energy consumption—I. The distribution of per capita energy consumption in the world
Enray.
Vol. I, pp. 325-334
Pergamon Press 1976.
Printed in Great Britain
TOWARD A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION-I. THE DISTRIBUTION OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD J. P. CHARPENTIER IIASA, 2361Laxenburg, Austria (Receioed 28 April 1976)
Abstract-This paper deals with the inputs that are necessary for investigating future energy demands in various countries. With the view of providing inputs that are indispensable for writing scenarios, we have investigated how energy is linked to the state of the economy and how the life styles of individuals relate to the state of technology achieved, to name two important issues. The information will be presented in three parts. This Part I deals with the distribution of energy consumption in the world. The simple distribution curve of the world’s per capita consumption provides considerable insight into the importance of energy for different life styles. In Part II, factor analysis will be used to compare energy consumption with other economic indices and to relate it to the structure of energy consumption. Part III will be devoted to energy analysis, the concept and its applicability. Energy analysis will also be discussed from the points of view of engineering and statistics. The quantitative information presented here provides a crude picture as to how energy is used today, by whom and what for. The figures, which were mainly derived from statistical data, are largely self-explanatory and should be generally useful. I. INTRODUCTION
Difficulties such as the oil crisis, the burden of environmental pollution, the discussion of economic growth and related problems have increasingly emphasized the need for a better understanding of the linkages between economic and social welfare and energy consumption. The global nature of the problem of future energy demand has led to the reorientation in the field of energy, promoting the development and sophistication of a variety of analytical tools that serve to explain energy consumption as a function of other parameters, and to project energy demand. Many of these engineering and econometric studies of growth and consumption parallel and complement each other. It may be indicative, for example, that prices have come to play a minor role because they were understood as being less influenced by market forces than by political decisions. More attention is now paid to the physical boundaries of economic development. Also, possible modifications in the fixed economic sectors are closely examined. It is felt that it would be conducive to further elaboration of these modeling efforts if the understanding of the present day conditions of energy demand were also improved. Therefore, today’s energy consumption will be described for a variety of countries, differing in population and level of economic development. It will be discussed in two ways. Side-stepping the analytical line, a hypothetical more even distribution of energy consumption is considered and the corresponding global growth rates of per capita energy consumption will be shown for the near and medium term future. Finally, the structure of energy consumption of typical societies, as derived from the present distribution function, and statistics on the use of energy in different economic sectors will be discussed. 2. THE DISTRIBUTION
OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN THE WORLD
Figure 1 gives the distribution of per capita energy consumption for different countries in the world in 1971, using data from the 1972 Statistical Yearbook of the United Nations.’ The figure contains 178 countries of the world that have reached a certain level of primary energy consumption.? The distribution function would be quite similar if instead of the number of tFor reasons of availability of data, only commercial energy has been taken into account. For developing countries like India, the discrepancy between real energy consumption and commercial energy consumption could reach 40 to 50%. In a forthcoming study devoted to developing countries only, this point will be carefully studied. 325
326
J. P.
&4RPENlTER
Fig. 1. The distribution of per capita energy consumption in the world. Source: Statistical Yearbook of the United Nations.’
countries the number of people at a certain level of energy consumption were used. The majority of the countries (75%) holding 72% of the population, consumed lesst than 2 kW(th)/cap of primary energy, the largest fraction of this group being around 0.3 kW(th)/cap. This group III covers developing countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America. Group II, which is mainly made up of the European countries, the Soviet Union and Japan corresponds to 22% of the world population. Its per capita energy consumption ranges from 2 kW(th) to 7 kW(th). Three percent of the countries, i.e. the United States, Canada and Kuweit, corresponding to 6% of the world population, make up group I with a per capita consumption higher than 7 kW(th). One should note that the energy consumption in the U.S. is 40 times that of the countries at the mode of the distribution function. The discrepancy among developing countries, which make up the largest group, reaches a factor of about ten. This distribution also illustrates the fact that, even if the world population were to stop growing, the necessarily increasing use of energy in the developing countries would continue to push up the global annual energy consumption, which at present is around 1.7 kW(th)/cap.
3. A POSSIBLE
FUTURE
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMPTION
OF PER CAPITA ENERGY
IN THE WORLD
With this distribution function in hand, one may be tempted to digress into statistics to search for distribution laws that correspond to the present distribution function. Needless to say, such a step must be closely examined. It seems that the distribution functions of Rayleigh and Laplace represent the present distribution function well, yielding coefficients of R = 0.15 and L = 0.33. The densities of both are repeated here for the reader’s convenience (Fig. 2). It is clear that the adopted distribution function is not a distribution in a strictly statistical sense. The purpose of the following statistical game is merely to indicate one possibility of describing the present per capita energy consumpffx)
(a)“bxm
(b)
L$QO_,
Fig. 2. Rayleigh and Laplace distribution laws. (a) Rayleigh density: f(x) = (x/R2). e-‘““*R*~. (b) Laplace density: f(x) = (L/2). emti. tHere and in the following energy figures, the term kW(th)/cap is to be understood as kilowatt year(therma1)per year and capita.
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I
321
tion; given a certain set of assumptions, one may thus arrive at a possible future energy consumption. We proceed from our previous observations that about three fourths of the world population now consume less than 2 kW(th)/cap and the present average energy consumption in the world is about 1.7 kW(th)/cap. It is further assumed that the distribution function of the per capita energy consumption will remain the same. When will this great majority of the world population (75%) have an energy consumption that corresponds to the present European upper range of 7 kW(th)/cap? Figure 3 contains this new distribution which is labeled “future” in contrast to the “1971” per
DlSTRl~UTlCN OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CCNSUMPTDN
Fig. 3. Present and possible future distributions of per capita energy consumption in the world as derived from Rayleigh and Laplace distribution laws. Average in 1971:I.6 kW(th) R = 0.15,L = 0.33.Future average: 5.4 kW(th) R = 4, L = 0.005.D: cumulative distribution. d: density distribution.
capita energy consumption as they are presented in the form of the respective density and cumulative distributions. It is interesting to note that this game has provided us with a “future” average of a world energy consumption of some 5.4 kW(th)/cap, which roughly corresponds to the present European level. The Rayleigh and Laplace coefficients for this “future” energy consumption are R = 4 and L = 0.005.
If this energy distribution were to become the target figure for the world population in the next 30-70 years, the global annual average growth rate of per capita energy consumption is that indicated in Table 1. Table
1. World
average primary energy 5.4 kW(th)/cap
consumption
at
By the year
2ooo
2020
2040
At annual energy consumption growth rate
4%
2.5%
1.8%
One may recall that the trend line of the world energy consumption since 1800 has an annual increase of 2%. 4. PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN DIFFERENT
ECONOMIC
SECTORS
Before any attempt can be made to interpret the dramatic differences in Fig. 1, it is useful to consider the various uses to which energy is put in the three groups of countries. The following Tables 2 and 3 show the primary energy inputs into three basic economic sectors, averaged over
I. P.
328
CHARPENTIER
Table 2. Primary energy consumption of different sectors (average of 1955) Sectors
Type of country I. High level of energy consumption, e.g. U.S.A. II. Medium level of energy consumption, e.g. Europe III. Low level of energy consumption, e.g. developing country
Energy per cap. kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
Z .kW(th)
E/c.,>7
47
3.4
22
1.6
31
2.2
7.2
2< El,.,<7
56
2.0
13
0.4
31
1.0
3.4
E/,,G 2
46
0.13
28
0.08
26
0.09
0.3
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
Table 3. Primary energy consumption of different sectors (average of 1970) Sectors Energy per cap. kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
El,.,>7
42
4.2
22
2.2
36
3.6
2
56
2.5
14
0.6
30
1.3
4.4
47
0.5
29
0.3
24
0.25
1.05
Type of country I. High level of energy consumption, e.g. U.S.A. II. Medium level of energy consumption, e.g. Europe III. Low level of energy consumption, e.g. developing country
E/c.,,< 2
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
I kW(th)
10
the years 1955 and 1970, respectively. These sectors are industry, transport and all other energy consumers, i.e. mainly household, agriculture, commercial and public services. These entries are not average values for each of the entire groups I to III of Fig. 1. Instead, they are typical examples of countries in these groups. For example the United States has been chosen as the model of group I. A number of European countries and Japan are at the center of group II. For group III a number of developing countries with an energy consumption level of about 1 kW(th)/cap was selected; this is more by a factor of five than the average of group III in 1970. It is of interest in this context to look at the evolution of the structure of energy consumption. Did the weight each of the three sectors carried within a given country change between 1955and 1970? For the U.S.A., a typical country with a high level of per capita primary energy consumption, the change is significant. While the fractional use in the transport sector remained the same, i.e. at 22%, the energy use in household, agriculture and other sectors increased by five percent at the cost of industry. In the societies chosen to represent medium and low levels of the consumption, the structure remained more or less the same, as can be seen from the following Table 4. As regards the transport sector, it is worthwhile noting two points. The weight of this sector in developing countries is striking, as they generally do not have the necessary infrastructure, either in railways or in roads. However, speaking in relative terms, they rely more than other countries on air transport which is highly energy consuming. The transport sector in highly developed countries, on the other hand, seems to retain the same fractional level of primary energy Table 4. Increase in primary energy consumption in different sectors, 1955-1970 Industry
Society (I) E/cap > 7
Transport
Other sectors
%
kW(th)/cap
%
kW(th)/cap
%
kW(th)/cap
I kW(th)/cap
-5
0.8
0
0.6
+5
1.4
2.8
0.5
+I
0.2
-1
0.3
1
0.37
t1
0.22
-2
0.16
0.75
Society (II) 2
0
Society (III) E/cap < 2
+1
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I
329
consumption; this is so in spite of the fact that these countries have started to shift from an industrial society toward tertiary society.
\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
HIGH LEVEL Et USA
\ \
MEDIUM LEVEL Eli EUROPE.YFW
LOW LEVEL E.G.CWEUPNG COJMRY
Fig. 4. Per capita primary energy consumption per sector and country for the year 1970in kW(th)/cap
5. SURVEY OF TODAY’S PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN I5 COUNTRIES
We conclude by presenting an overview of today’s primary energy consumption for 15 c0untries.t The figures are based on 1971 data from “Statistics of Energy 1959-1973” of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)? The energy uses in various sectors in these countries are shown in terms of per capita (primary) energy consumption. The unit kW year(th) for the year 1971 was simplified to become kW(th). It was felt that these data, although presented in a merely descriptive form, are useful in supplementing the observations made above. As these figures are largely self-explanatory, only specific points will be stressed in the following. Table 5 summarizes the statistics used for Figs. 5-11. Figure 6 gives the per capita energy consumption by economic sectors. The major differences between Europe and North America appear essentially in the household and transport sectors. Because of its prominence in some of these countries, the steel industry has been eliminated from these statistics. Figure 7 shows the fractional uses of different energy forms. It is interesting to note (a) the stability of the fraction of electricity in primary form at 25% in all countries and (b) the tremendous fractional use of fuel oil in all countries shown, which is nearly 50% on an average. Figure 8 shows that there are only small differences among the countries considered in the percentages of energy consumed in different sectors. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note the relative importance of transport for both highly developed countries such as the U.S.A. and developing countries such as Greece or Portugal. In Fig. 9, the transport sector is more closely examined. It shows that air transport is relatively important in developing countries such as Greece or Portugal. This could be explained by the fact that it is easier to install airports than build roads or railway networks in developing countries. The conclusion is emphasized by the representation of the fractional uses of energy in the transport sector in Fig. 10. For countries like Greece or Portugal, air transport makes up about 30% of the total energy use in this sector. tFor the present purpose, the E.E.C. is considered as a “country”.
-gas -fuel oil
-transport -industry -industry except steel -others’
-transport -industry -industry except steel -other?
Per cap. energy consumption in diierent sectors (except energy sector) [LWW~PI
Weight of energy consumption in dierent sectors (except energy sector) [%I
12
-11
37
36
79
13 40 35
2.6
0.8 2.5 2.0
39 3 1 57
2.5 0.2 0.1 3.6
1.43 0.55
6.3
4438
Sweden
52
35
13 41 32
1.8
0.6 2.0 1.4
25 18 12 45
1.2 0.9 0.6 2.2
1.40 0.35
5.0
3572
FKG
58
36
14 37 31
1.6
0.6 1.7 1.3
30 18 14 38
1.3 0.8 0.6 1.7
1.85 0.56
4.4
2410
UK
70
35
15 39 32
1.4
0.6 1.6 1.2
26 13 14 47
1.1 0.5 0.6 1.9
1.a 0.44
4.1
2418
CEE’
67
46
20 27 26
1.9
0.8 1.1 1.0
35 2 1 62
1.4 0.1 0.1 2.5
1.07 0.38
4.1
3793
Switzer.
83
34
16 40 34
1.2
0.6 1.5 1.1
24 11 10 55
0.9 0.4 :::
1.15 0.27
3.7
3192
France
54
34
17 42 35
1.2
0.6 1.5 1.1
29 14 16 41
1.0 0.5 0.5 1.5
1.58 0.46
3.5
2234
Austria
%
24
13 54 44
0.8
0.4 1.7 1.2
33 9 5 52
1.1 0.3 0.2 1.7
1.45 0.49
3.2
2186
Japan
99
31
17 44 39
0.8
0.4 1.1 0.9
27 3 14 56
0.7 0.1 0.3 1.4
1.35 0.56
2.5
1876
Italy
“CEE: for this purpose the nine Common Market countries are put together; bothers: agriculture, household, public and commercial services.
Imported minus exported primary energy/final energy consumption [%I
18 33 31
3.4
3.5
23 29 25
1.6 3.0 2.7
32 3 22 43
2.9 0.3 2.0 3.9
2.12 0.68
9.1
4301
Canada
2.2 2.8 2.4
26 4 33 37
-electricity
Fractional energy consumption by energy form I%1
-Coal
2.6 0.4 3.2 3.6
-electricity -coal -gas -fuel oil
Per cap. energy consumption by energy form mwwlcaPl
9.7
1.92 0.51
-.
5051
Energy consumption/GNP [lo-’ kW(th)/S] Electricity consumption/GNP
[LWWcapl
Per capita energy consumpt.
Per capita GNP [S]
USA
Table 5. Energy consumption in OECD countries (1971)
80
19
20 48 42
0.3
0.3 0.8 0.6
31 11 7 51
0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8
1.53 0.47
1.7
1081
Spain
84
22
28 40 37
0.3
0.4 0.5 0.5
29 11 1 59
0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7
1.09 0.31
1.3
1211
Greece
98
26
26 37 36
0.2
0.2 0.3 0.3
31 5 2 62
0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5
1.14 0.35
0.8
710
Port.
45
41
24 28 24
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
16 25 3 56
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
1.48 0.24
0.5
327
Turkey
i&l
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I kW(
th )/cap
lo?
USA
CDN
S
FRG
UK
CEE
CH
F
A
I
J
E
GR
P
TR
Fig. 5. Per cop&~ energy consumption by energy form, 1971.
0 USA
CDN
I
I
S
FRG
UK
CEE
Fig. 6. Per capita energy consumption
CH
F
A
J
I
E
GR
in different sectors (except the steel and energy sectors), 197 I.
P
TR
J. P.
332
CHAREWTIER
%
I
I i !ELEC/RICITY ! I I !
i
I
I
USA
CDN
S
FRG
UK
1 ’1 i
CEE
Cl-4
l
!
I
I
I
I
j
i
!
I
I
I F
A
J
I
Fig. 7. Fractional energy uses in different countries, 1971.
Fig. 8. Fractional energy uses in different sectors, 1971.
E
GR
P
TR
Toward
a better understanding
333
of energy consumption-l
kW
Fig. 9. Per capita energy use in transport sector, 1971.
c
I 9
CON
S
I
1
FRG
UK
_L’!
-GR
Fii. 10. Fractional pcrcapita energy uses in transport sector, 1971
P
TR
J. P. CHARPENTIER
334
MNIMGANG STEEL
CLoms 10
BUILDING FOOD
163
-i!
Fii. 11. Fractional energy uses in the French industry.
Figure 11 exemplifies the energy needs of different industrial sectors in France. Except for the chemical and steel industries, the fractions of all other sectors were remarkably stable during the time period 19591%9. 6. CONCLUDING
REMARKS
In the first part of this series, a preliminary step has been taken to analyze the structure of the global energy demand. While firm conclusions from this presentation of the energy demand pattern would be premature, it nevertheless provides some guidelines towards the overall objective of building an energy-demand scenario. Thus, it is important to realize that a diffusion process of a by and large identical technological and economic way-of-life can be considered as being the driving force for today’s energy consumption. REFERENCES United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical O&e, New York, 1973;World Energy Supplies 197&1973,Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Statistical OtlIce, Series J No. 18, New York, 1975. 2. Statistics of Energy, 19561970, Basic Statistics OECD, Paris, 1972. I.
Statistid
Yearbook
1972,
Vol. I, pp. 325-334
Pergamon Press 1976.
Printed in Great Britain
TOWARD A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION-I. THE DISTRIBUTION OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD J. P. CHARPENTIER IIASA, 2361Laxenburg, Austria (Receioed 28 April 1976)
Abstract-This paper deals with the inputs that are necessary for investigating future energy demands in various countries. With the view of providing inputs that are indispensable for writing scenarios, we have investigated how energy is linked to the state of the economy and how the life styles of individuals relate to the state of technology achieved, to name two important issues. The information will be presented in three parts. This Part I deals with the distribution of energy consumption in the world. The simple distribution curve of the world’s per capita consumption provides considerable insight into the importance of energy for different life styles. In Part II, factor analysis will be used to compare energy consumption with other economic indices and to relate it to the structure of energy consumption. Part III will be devoted to energy analysis, the concept and its applicability. Energy analysis will also be discussed from the points of view of engineering and statistics. The quantitative information presented here provides a crude picture as to how energy is used today, by whom and what for. The figures, which were mainly derived from statistical data, are largely self-explanatory and should be generally useful. I. INTRODUCTION
Difficulties such as the oil crisis, the burden of environmental pollution, the discussion of economic growth and related problems have increasingly emphasized the need for a better understanding of the linkages between economic and social welfare and energy consumption. The global nature of the problem of future energy demand has led to the reorientation in the field of energy, promoting the development and sophistication of a variety of analytical tools that serve to explain energy consumption as a function of other parameters, and to project energy demand. Many of these engineering and econometric studies of growth and consumption parallel and complement each other. It may be indicative, for example, that prices have come to play a minor role because they were understood as being less influenced by market forces than by political decisions. More attention is now paid to the physical boundaries of economic development. Also, possible modifications in the fixed economic sectors are closely examined. It is felt that it would be conducive to further elaboration of these modeling efforts if the understanding of the present day conditions of energy demand were also improved. Therefore, today’s energy consumption will be described for a variety of countries, differing in population and level of economic development. It will be discussed in two ways. Side-stepping the analytical line, a hypothetical more even distribution of energy consumption is considered and the corresponding global growth rates of per capita energy consumption will be shown for the near and medium term future. Finally, the structure of energy consumption of typical societies, as derived from the present distribution function, and statistics on the use of energy in different economic sectors will be discussed. 2. THE DISTRIBUTION
OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN THE WORLD
Figure 1 gives the distribution of per capita energy consumption for different countries in the world in 1971, using data from the 1972 Statistical Yearbook of the United Nations.’ The figure contains 178 countries of the world that have reached a certain level of primary energy consumption.? The distribution function would be quite similar if instead of the number of tFor reasons of availability of data, only commercial energy has been taken into account. For developing countries like India, the discrepancy between real energy consumption and commercial energy consumption could reach 40 to 50%. In a forthcoming study devoted to developing countries only, this point will be carefully studied. 325
326
J. P.
&4RPENlTER
Fig. 1. The distribution of per capita energy consumption in the world. Source: Statistical Yearbook of the United Nations.’
countries the number of people at a certain level of energy consumption were used. The majority of the countries (75%) holding 72% of the population, consumed lesst than 2 kW(th)/cap of primary energy, the largest fraction of this group being around 0.3 kW(th)/cap. This group III covers developing countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America. Group II, which is mainly made up of the European countries, the Soviet Union and Japan corresponds to 22% of the world population. Its per capita energy consumption ranges from 2 kW(th) to 7 kW(th). Three percent of the countries, i.e. the United States, Canada and Kuweit, corresponding to 6% of the world population, make up group I with a per capita consumption higher than 7 kW(th). One should note that the energy consumption in the U.S. is 40 times that of the countries at the mode of the distribution function. The discrepancy among developing countries, which make up the largest group, reaches a factor of about ten. This distribution also illustrates the fact that, even if the world population were to stop growing, the necessarily increasing use of energy in the developing countries would continue to push up the global annual energy consumption, which at present is around 1.7 kW(th)/cap.
3. A POSSIBLE
FUTURE
DISTRIBUTION
CONSUMPTION
OF PER CAPITA ENERGY
IN THE WORLD
With this distribution function in hand, one may be tempted to digress into statistics to search for distribution laws that correspond to the present distribution function. Needless to say, such a step must be closely examined. It seems that the distribution functions of Rayleigh and Laplace represent the present distribution function well, yielding coefficients of R = 0.15 and L = 0.33. The densities of both are repeated here for the reader’s convenience (Fig. 2). It is clear that the adopted distribution function is not a distribution in a strictly statistical sense. The purpose of the following statistical game is merely to indicate one possibility of describing the present per capita energy consumpffx)
(a)“bxm
(b)
L$QO_,
Fig. 2. Rayleigh and Laplace distribution laws. (a) Rayleigh density: f(x) = (x/R2). e-‘““*R*~. (b) Laplace density: f(x) = (L/2). emti. tHere and in the following energy figures, the term kW(th)/cap is to be understood as kilowatt year(therma1)per year and capita.
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I
321
tion; given a certain set of assumptions, one may thus arrive at a possible future energy consumption. We proceed from our previous observations that about three fourths of the world population now consume less than 2 kW(th)/cap and the present average energy consumption in the world is about 1.7 kW(th)/cap. It is further assumed that the distribution function of the per capita energy consumption will remain the same. When will this great majority of the world population (75%) have an energy consumption that corresponds to the present European upper range of 7 kW(th)/cap? Figure 3 contains this new distribution which is labeled “future” in contrast to the “1971” per
DlSTRl~UTlCN OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CCNSUMPTDN
Fig. 3. Present and possible future distributions of per capita energy consumption in the world as derived from Rayleigh and Laplace distribution laws. Average in 1971:I.6 kW(th) R = 0.15,L = 0.33.Future average: 5.4 kW(th) R = 4, L = 0.005.D: cumulative distribution. d: density distribution.
capita energy consumption as they are presented in the form of the respective density and cumulative distributions. It is interesting to note that this game has provided us with a “future” average of a world energy consumption of some 5.4 kW(th)/cap, which roughly corresponds to the present European level. The Rayleigh and Laplace coefficients for this “future” energy consumption are R = 4 and L = 0.005.
If this energy distribution were to become the target figure for the world population in the next 30-70 years, the global annual average growth rate of per capita energy consumption is that indicated in Table 1. Table
1. World
average primary energy 5.4 kW(th)/cap
consumption
at
By the year
2ooo
2020
2040
At annual energy consumption growth rate
4%
2.5%
1.8%
One may recall that the trend line of the world energy consumption since 1800 has an annual increase of 2%. 4. PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN DIFFERENT
ECONOMIC
SECTORS
Before any attempt can be made to interpret the dramatic differences in Fig. 1, it is useful to consider the various uses to which energy is put in the three groups of countries. The following Tables 2 and 3 show the primary energy inputs into three basic economic sectors, averaged over
I. P.
328
CHARPENTIER
Table 2. Primary energy consumption of different sectors (average of 1955) Sectors
Type of country I. High level of energy consumption, e.g. U.S.A. II. Medium level of energy consumption, e.g. Europe III. Low level of energy consumption, e.g. developing country
Energy per cap. kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
Z .kW(th)
E/c.,>7
47
3.4
22
1.6
31
2.2
7.2
2< El,.,<7
56
2.0
13
0.4
31
1.0
3.4
E/,,G 2
46
0.13
28
0.08
26
0.09
0.3
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
Table 3. Primary energy consumption of different sectors (average of 1970) Sectors Energy per cap. kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
%
kW(th)
El,.,>7
42
4.2
22
2.2
36
3.6
2
56
2.5
14
0.6
30
1.3
4.4
47
0.5
29
0.3
24
0.25
1.05
Type of country I. High level of energy consumption, e.g. U.S.A. II. Medium level of energy consumption, e.g. Europe III. Low level of energy consumption, e.g. developing country
E/c.,,< 2
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
I kW(th)
10
the years 1955 and 1970, respectively. These sectors are industry, transport and all other energy consumers, i.e. mainly household, agriculture, commercial and public services. These entries are not average values for each of the entire groups I to III of Fig. 1. Instead, they are typical examples of countries in these groups. For example the United States has been chosen as the model of group I. A number of European countries and Japan are at the center of group II. For group III a number of developing countries with an energy consumption level of about 1 kW(th)/cap was selected; this is more by a factor of five than the average of group III in 1970. It is of interest in this context to look at the evolution of the structure of energy consumption. Did the weight each of the three sectors carried within a given country change between 1955and 1970? For the U.S.A., a typical country with a high level of per capita primary energy consumption, the change is significant. While the fractional use in the transport sector remained the same, i.e. at 22%, the energy use in household, agriculture and other sectors increased by five percent at the cost of industry. In the societies chosen to represent medium and low levels of the consumption, the structure remained more or less the same, as can be seen from the following Table 4. As regards the transport sector, it is worthwhile noting two points. The weight of this sector in developing countries is striking, as they generally do not have the necessary infrastructure, either in railways or in roads. However, speaking in relative terms, they rely more than other countries on air transport which is highly energy consuming. The transport sector in highly developed countries, on the other hand, seems to retain the same fractional level of primary energy Table 4. Increase in primary energy consumption in different sectors, 1955-1970 Industry
Society (I) E/cap > 7
Transport
Other sectors
%
kW(th)/cap
%
kW(th)/cap
%
kW(th)/cap
I kW(th)/cap
-5
0.8
0
0.6
+5
1.4
2.8
0.5
+I
0.2
-1
0.3
1
0.37
t1
0.22
-2
0.16
0.75
Society (II) 2
0
Society (III) E/cap < 2
+1
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I
329
consumption; this is so in spite of the fact that these countries have started to shift from an industrial society toward tertiary society.
\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
HIGH LEVEL Et USA
\ \
MEDIUM LEVEL Eli EUROPE.YFW
LOW LEVEL E.G.CWEUPNG COJMRY
Fig. 4. Per capita primary energy consumption per sector and country for the year 1970in kW(th)/cap
5. SURVEY OF TODAY’S PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IN I5 COUNTRIES
We conclude by presenting an overview of today’s primary energy consumption for 15 c0untries.t The figures are based on 1971 data from “Statistics of Energy 1959-1973” of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)? The energy uses in various sectors in these countries are shown in terms of per capita (primary) energy consumption. The unit kW year(th) for the year 1971 was simplified to become kW(th). It was felt that these data, although presented in a merely descriptive form, are useful in supplementing the observations made above. As these figures are largely self-explanatory, only specific points will be stressed in the following. Table 5 summarizes the statistics used for Figs. 5-11. Figure 6 gives the per capita energy consumption by economic sectors. The major differences between Europe and North America appear essentially in the household and transport sectors. Because of its prominence in some of these countries, the steel industry has been eliminated from these statistics. Figure 7 shows the fractional uses of different energy forms. It is interesting to note (a) the stability of the fraction of electricity in primary form at 25% in all countries and (b) the tremendous fractional use of fuel oil in all countries shown, which is nearly 50% on an average. Figure 8 shows that there are only small differences among the countries considered in the percentages of energy consumed in different sectors. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note the relative importance of transport for both highly developed countries such as the U.S.A. and developing countries such as Greece or Portugal. In Fig. 9, the transport sector is more closely examined. It shows that air transport is relatively important in developing countries such as Greece or Portugal. This could be explained by the fact that it is easier to install airports than build roads or railway networks in developing countries. The conclusion is emphasized by the representation of the fractional uses of energy in the transport sector in Fig. 10. For countries like Greece or Portugal, air transport makes up about 30% of the total energy use in this sector. tFor the present purpose, the E.E.C. is considered as a “country”.
-gas -fuel oil
-transport -industry -industry except steel -others’
-transport -industry -industry except steel -other?
Per cap. energy consumption in diierent sectors (except energy sector) [LWW~PI
Weight of energy consumption in dierent sectors (except energy sector) [%I
12
-11
37
36
79
13 40 35
2.6
0.8 2.5 2.0
39 3 1 57
2.5 0.2 0.1 3.6
1.43 0.55
6.3
4438
Sweden
52
35
13 41 32
1.8
0.6 2.0 1.4
25 18 12 45
1.2 0.9 0.6 2.2
1.40 0.35
5.0
3572
FKG
58
36
14 37 31
1.6
0.6 1.7 1.3
30 18 14 38
1.3 0.8 0.6 1.7
1.85 0.56
4.4
2410
UK
70
35
15 39 32
1.4
0.6 1.6 1.2
26 13 14 47
1.1 0.5 0.6 1.9
1.a 0.44
4.1
2418
CEE’
67
46
20 27 26
1.9
0.8 1.1 1.0
35 2 1 62
1.4 0.1 0.1 2.5
1.07 0.38
4.1
3793
Switzer.
83
34
16 40 34
1.2
0.6 1.5 1.1
24 11 10 55
0.9 0.4 :::
1.15 0.27
3.7
3192
France
54
34
17 42 35
1.2
0.6 1.5 1.1
29 14 16 41
1.0 0.5 0.5 1.5
1.58 0.46
3.5
2234
Austria
%
24
13 54 44
0.8
0.4 1.7 1.2
33 9 5 52
1.1 0.3 0.2 1.7
1.45 0.49
3.2
2186
Japan
99
31
17 44 39
0.8
0.4 1.1 0.9
27 3 14 56
0.7 0.1 0.3 1.4
1.35 0.56
2.5
1876
Italy
“CEE: for this purpose the nine Common Market countries are put together; bothers: agriculture, household, public and commercial services.
Imported minus exported primary energy/final energy consumption [%I
18 33 31
3.4
3.5
23 29 25
1.6 3.0 2.7
32 3 22 43
2.9 0.3 2.0 3.9
2.12 0.68
9.1
4301
Canada
2.2 2.8 2.4
26 4 33 37
-electricity
Fractional energy consumption by energy form I%1
-Coal
2.6 0.4 3.2 3.6
-electricity -coal -gas -fuel oil
Per cap. energy consumption by energy form mwwlcaPl
9.7
1.92 0.51
-.
5051
Energy consumption/GNP [lo-’ kW(th)/S] Electricity consumption/GNP
[LWWcapl
Per capita energy consumpt.
Per capita GNP [S]
USA
Table 5. Energy consumption in OECD countries (1971)
80
19
20 48 42
0.3
0.3 0.8 0.6
31 11 7 51
0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8
1.53 0.47
1.7
1081
Spain
84
22
28 40 37
0.3
0.4 0.5 0.5
29 11 1 59
0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7
1.09 0.31
1.3
1211
Greece
98
26
26 37 36
0.2
0.2 0.3 0.3
31 5 2 62
0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5
1.14 0.35
0.8
710
Port.
45
41
24 28 24
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
16 25 3 56
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
1.48 0.24
0.5
327
Turkey
i&l
Toward a better understanding of energy consumption-I kW(
th )/cap
lo?
USA
CDN
S
FRG
UK
CEE
CH
F
A
I
J
E
GR
P
TR
Fig. 5. Per cop&~ energy consumption by energy form, 1971.
0 USA
CDN
I
I
S
FRG
UK
CEE
Fig. 6. Per capita energy consumption
CH
F
A
J
I
E
GR
in different sectors (except the steel and energy sectors), 197 I.
P
TR
J. P.
332
CHAREWTIER
%
I
I i !ELEC/RICITY ! I I !
i
I
I
USA
CDN
S
FRG
UK
1 ’1 i
CEE
Cl-4
l
!
I
I
I
I
j
i
!
I
I
I F
A
J
I
Fig. 7. Fractional energy uses in different countries, 1971.
Fig. 8. Fractional energy uses in different sectors, 1971.
E
GR
P
TR
Toward
a better understanding
333
of energy consumption-l
kW
Fig. 9. Per capita energy use in transport sector, 1971.
c
I 9
CON
S
I
1
FRG
UK
_L’!
-GR
Fii. 10. Fractional pcrcapita energy uses in transport sector, 1971
P
TR
J. P. CHARPENTIER
334
MNIMGANG STEEL
CLoms 10
BUILDING FOOD
163
-i!
Fii. 11. Fractional energy uses in the French industry.
Figure 11 exemplifies the energy needs of different industrial sectors in France. Except for the chemical and steel industries, the fractions of all other sectors were remarkably stable during the time period 19591%9. 6. CONCLUDING
REMARKS
In the first part of this series, a preliminary step has been taken to analyze the structure of the global energy demand. While firm conclusions from this presentation of the energy demand pattern would be premature, it nevertheless provides some guidelines towards the overall objective of building an energy-demand scenario. Thus, it is important to realize that a diffusion process of a by and large identical technological and economic way-of-life can be considered as being the driving force for today’s energy consumption. REFERENCES United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical O&e, New York, 1973;World Energy Supplies 197&1973,Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Statistical OtlIce, Series J No. 18, New York, 1975. 2. Statistics of Energy, 19561970, Basic Statistics OECD, Paris, 1972. I.
Statistid
Yearbook
1972,