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Towards a new social input-output table: The dynamics of social groups and institutions
TECHNOLOGICAL
FORECASTING
AND SOCIAL
CHANGE
10, 89-101
(1977)
89
Towards a New Social Input-Output Table: the Dynamics of Social Groups and Institutions * H. AUJAC
ABSTRACT
Input-output analysis has been very helpful to elaborate the 5 and 10 years sectoral thrccasts which support the French medium-term economic policy, This analysis makes it possible to take into account the interdcpcndcnccs between the various sectors of the economy. This sort of analysis must be completed by another kind of analysis which is not based on the sectors of the economic activity but instead on the groups which characterize the French society in its present state of devclopmcnt. The relations between the groups set up on scvcral plans, i.e., the economic, sociological, political and ideological plans. On the one hand, the behavior of each group depends on the characteristics proper to the groups, and. on the other hand, on its situation on the various plans, and mainly on the other groups. In this system of social accounting, which has still to be built up, the social groups play the part of the industries, the inputs are the modifications of the situation of each group and the outputs are the behavior of this group facing these modifications of its situation. This is the beginning of a research endeavor made particularly difficult by the great number of plans of interactions bctwccn the groups that have to be taken into account.
I. Introduction This paper has the limited aim of describing the outline of what is as yet no more than a research project. But the project itself is an ambitious one. Its aim is to develop a tool for analysis and forecasting to serve a similar and complementary purpose to, but nevertheless different from, that of an input-output table. The latter analyzes production relationships. The new table would analyze society itself. based not on the technical coefficients relating production activities, but on the strategies of social groups and institutions [I ] . The need to build such a model stems from the transformations undergone by the French and other social bodies through technical progress, the opening of frontiers to international trade and real economic growth occurring at a rate unknown heretofore. The model would be used to analyze and perhaps to program these transformations. It
H. AUJAC ic a Scientific Adviser to the Chairman, Bureau d’Informations et de PrCvisions Economiques, (B.I.P.E.), Neuilly-sur-Seine. France; Director of Studies, Ecole dcs Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociates. Paris, France. * Paper submitted to the Input-Output International meeting-UN0 Vienna, Austria, April 1974. 0 Elsevier North-Holland,
Inc., 1977
90
H. AUJAC
became evident in the mid-1960’s that such a model is necessary. The grave social crisis Until 1968 economic growth in France within the existing institutional, social and political framework, which there seemed reason to into question. growth process was satisfactorily analyzed and controlled using the instruments might be achieved table was used to forecast level of production number of jobs corresponding public authorities’ final and full employment objectives. At that time seemed close link between the real content of growth tools available secure its balanced pursuit. Nonetheless. before the social crisis of May An irreversible mutation of the institutional. social and political frame under way. In changing circumstances. economic taking on a different significance. New and services social groups taking beside those already power to make of view prevail. social apparatus normal operation Social progress growth are no longer synonymous. although might have been thought of as the same as little decade ago. The very meaning of the word development change is so that the realities social evolution narrow limits table in particular. paper is that we must seek to construct model capable of analyzing. those most intcrestcd model are to whom the future French society is an important issue, but the problems raised and the results which within are such as to deserve the attention West. In the analysis, those experienced II. The New Social Reality: Definition of a Suitable Analytical Tool The national accounts. and more specifically the input-output table, have so closely depicted the social and economic realities of France in the 1960’s that it seems useful to take them as a starting point for identifying the areas in which reality has progressively escaped them. The distinguishing feature of these tables is the nomenclature used to define economic agents, the goods and services taken into account and the economic and technical ’ This rcscnrch is the subject of the author’s seminar at the Ecole Pratiquc des Hautcs Etudes, en Sciences Socialcs. It is at its beginnings, nnd will bc carried out during some months for the account of the Commissariat CXnkral du Plan. It is a ions and complex enquiry. and one of the purposes of dexribing it at this early stage is to benefit from the support of those who consider it worthwhile furthering.
91
DYNAMICS 01: SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITCTIONS
mechanisms economic
which
constitute
development
their structure.
on which
A brief
reminder
their use for forecasting
follows
and control
of the theory is based.
of
At each
stage of the discussion an attempt will be made to show how and why they are gradually losing touch with the realities of the social and economic situation of today. A. NIW PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL GROUPS: TIlE I:ORMALIZATION
OI: BEHAVIOR
ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL
(I) New products They often have no day by day. Among
AND STRATEGY: MLCAHNISMS
have entered exchange
the
the social demand function alongside the old ones. and may be nonmaterial, but their social value rises obvious are the stress laid on working conditions. job
value,
most
security, satisfactory housing accommodation environment. Intensified needs are expressed
and the quality of the social and cultural in the fields of health and education. There
is a demand for enhanced participation by those concerned in the decisions which determine their lot. Constant reference is made to the desirable equality of treatment of immigrant and French workers, to the need for accrued social integration and perhaps even t‘l-icndship, to the respect of human dignity and to a horizon with some hope. These goods arc of a new character. But although their social significance is growing constantly. they are not a pal-t of the national accounts terminology. The economic accounts recognize households, the business sector. the government and the foreign sector as social operators which may be thought of as the beginnings of a nomenclature of the groups and institutions which characterize our society today. However, this is superficial and deceptive. The true agents dealt with in the national accounts are such aggregates as consumption, investment. or savings, and they are related to each other by propensities which it is difficult, if not impossible (we will bc returning to this point). to match up with the strategy of a given social group or groups of firms. Yet the social entities appearing daily on the economic and social scene, whether in leading or minor roles, are easily identifiable social categories or pressure gm~lps. Examples include unskilled labor, immigrant workers, engineers over the age of SO years, dairy farmers. inhabitants of backward regions. specific categories of civil servants, students, would-be new entrants into the labor market. etc. There are also the lobbies, the employer federations. the trade unions, the political parties, etc. Nor can we neglect the surge of public opinion on specific issues, such as the outcry against pollution and atomic weaponry, the movement in favor of family planning or Women’s Liberation. Again. thcrc is the panoply of institutions: not just the public sector and the business corporations. but also various public and private agencies. the churches, etc. These social operators. whose activity is on occasion input-output table.
crowned
with total success,
are nowhere
to be found
in the
The operators taken into account by the input-output table are the various branches of economic activity (almost 100 branches in the French table). But the economic and social strategies of these branches cannot be expressed by the ex post relationships conveyed in a set of technical coefficients and capital/output ratios. (2) Although the national accounts, nominally intended to appraise the elements forming current society, have an inadequate terminological armory, their main shortcoming is the unsuitability of the behavioral functions used to animate the economic and social mechanisms of the model. A brief overview is in order here. The various propensities, technical coefficients and input-output ratios used are all ex
92
H. AUJAC
post quantitative data whose observed values are the outcome of the daily conflicts between social partners striving to make their point of view prevail. These conflicts arise because there is no reason for the ex ante ambitions of the proponents to be compatible. What we discover ex post is the result of the confrontation of the strategies implemented by the actors in the process, after their behavior has been impressed into compatibility by the constraints which society brings to bear on them (obviously including economic constraints), in order to secure its own reproduction. By reason of the interplay of the mechanisms determining the interdependence of the social partners, we are not entitled to assign a behavior to any given group or institution: the behavioral pattern can only be attributed to the system as a whol~.~ For as long as technical progress is characterized by higher productivity for the same goods rather than the proliferation of innovations, for as long as each member of society 01 social group patterns itself on the bcllavior of tile individual or group immediately above it on the income scale, for as long as the members of a society accept the norms of the consumer society, maintain the extant political and social consensus and experience no particular difficulties in their external economic and political dealings: for so long will the economy progress steadily, and the problems emerging will be strictly economic in nature. This may seem to justify the conclusion that the relative stability of the plans and strategies of operators induces a degree of stability in the observed values of the propensities, technical coefficients and capital/output ratios. Indeed. this claim may properly be made for the observed record of the early 1960’s. But today’s society is very different. There is no longer a social and political consensus. The aims of the various social categories, pressure groups and institutions are incompatible. The concept of Social Progress of Society is being voided of meaning: all that is left is the social progress of individual groups or institutions. To analyze this kind of society, the true behavior functions must be brought to the surface, i.e., a statement for each economic operator of his aims and means of action, and the strategy he will adopt given the opportunities and obstacles presented by the economic and social environment, one of whose essential constituents, moreover, is the pursuit of their own strategies by the other groups and institutions in the system, Similarly, the National Accounts relate only to economic mechanisms, which is reasonable enough since this is what they are intended to do. However, in parallel with the economic apparatus, but occasionally cutting right across it. there are other social as well as political mechanisms, in particular those working to foster the survival of the existing social patterns, which determine the rate, and even more important, the content of growth. In the final analysis, the National Accounts recognize the right to existence of a single decision-taking center, the public authorities, to whom are assigned the means of acting on the other social partners via the fiscal system, social security, investment policy, etc. The other partners are ascribed a single role only: obedience to the powers that exist. As autonomous decision-taking centers, they do not exist. This schematization of economic and social evolution is steadily becoming less and less realistic. Today the public authorities are one sometimes dominant pressure group among many.
’ A simple illustrative cvample is given by equilibrium theory. The ex ante strategy of each firm is to maximize its profits. The cs post result is that none make any profits. Can one then accept the guideline that the behavioral criterion for firms as a whole is the quest for zero profit?
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITUTIONS
93
Nor can the current organization of the National Accounts translate the variety of means of action deployed by the various social partners. Some are of course economic and are expressed in terms of prices, wages, etc. But others are social and even political, for example, strikes or political pressures to modulate legislation in certain desired directions. As the public authorities intervene in a growing range of areas while their ability to resist the pressures of different groups or institutions is being steadily eroded, the new social and political currents are tending to move in channels alongside and in some cases supplanting the standard ones. However, when the problem of the correspondence between reality and the model of it offered by the National Accounts is approached, the same conclusion is reached: the divorce has gone so far that the very notion of social and economic development on which the model is based must be reappraised. B. TOWARDS A CONCEPT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY’S
ADAPTED TO
REALITY
It seems clear that the rather reassuring view of growth based on the harmonious balance between aggregates linked by propensities, technical coefficients and capital/ output ratios must give way to a more “tragic ” image of development based on the recognition of conflicts between social partners, to be analyzed in terms of strategies of domination, adaptation or surrender. From this standpoint, economic and social development should be considered as both the cause and the effect of a series of “social disequilibria” successively affecting a given aspect of the situation of a certain social group or institution. These disequilibria translate the vicissitudes of the confrontation between the aspirations of the members or leadership of an individual category or institution and their scope for action, given the means at hand and the constraints imposed by the environment. They engender reactions which, according to the case-the opportunity or the ruling circumstances, take concrete form as an economic, political or social initiative, or several of these simultaneously. These efforts of a social category or an institution to implement to itself a more satisfactory social equilibrium may entail the reversal of an initial imbalance. More often the result is to propagate the movement among other social categories, but in a different form. This being so, the content of national planning should be designed to allow the public authorities to practise the art of managing the conflicts which arise between social groups and institutions, including those in which they are directly embroiled as one pressure group among others. This view of economic and social development puts the strategy of the members of social groups and the representatives of institutions squarely at the center of the social and economic dynamic process. Of course it is difficult to express it in traditional national accounting terms. A suitable socioeconomic model is required for this purpose and an attempt should be made to lay down the broad lines of such a model if it is to provide an operational image of the relevant characteristics of current reality.
III. A First Outline of a Socioeconomic Model It is now time to translate the foregoing appraisal of social and economic trends in France into terms of a research program for the development of the socioeconomic model we now know to be necessary. In the first place, the groups and institutions characterizing our society must be defined: in the model, they will be treated as decision-taking centers. This is followed by
94
H. AUJAC
a statement of the spirit in which the analysis will bc done of the behavior patterns or rather, the strategies on which the model is grounded. Finally. this section will review ways to take account of the main relations of interdependence or domination which can be discerned in our society today. A. THI; DLI’INITION DECISION-TAKING
Or THl: GROUPS
AND INSTITUTIONS
TO CONSIDL R AS AlJTONOXlOUS
(‘b:NTI:KS
(I) The groups and institutions to be taken into account should clearly be those whose records of the past twenty years and analysis of current trends show as having played-or being capable of playin?-a substantial economic, political or social role in determining the content and orientation of the development of the French social body. Examples of the groups worth studying include, among others:3 groups which are defined by the institutions in which their members carry on their activities. The production process, for example, leads to the sociooccupational categories described in employment statistics, and some of the groups to bc considered UC subsets of these. For example, “unskilled workers” will be split into French and nonFrench: they face different problems. In the category “executives”. production executives will bc distinguished from higher management executives in staff functions such as marketing, E.D.P., Kesearch and Development, etc: there are marked differences in the trade union and political views of each of these groups. “Farm operators” will be classified according to the type of agriculture practized: large-scale industrial-style farming in the Parisian region and the north of Prance, the one-crop agriculture in certain parts of the South (wine, market gardening, etc.) and the small-scale multicrop farmin, ~7characteristic of Central France and the South West. Obviously the position, problems, influence and reactions of each arc not comparable. The same is true of the liberal professions, the civil service, etc. Other groups are of a different nature; examples of this are the social categories savers, investors-but also. new distinguished in the national accOLlnts-consI1mers. entrants into the labor market, students, the elderly, mothers of large families. the physically handicapped, etc.; or again: the government. the political parties, the trade unions, the employer federations. lobbies. pressure groups and movements of opinion. These are ;I few examples of many. It is important to allow for all groups which pose, or have some possibility of posin g economic, social or political problems. Obviously, there is overlap between many of these groups, and a given person may well belong to several of them.’ The existence of groups which al-e defined through their membership in institutions (especially firms and government departments) means that a nomenclature of institutions must also be drawn up. This nomenclature must be constantly collated with the nomenclature of the groups concerned, with a progressive set of reciprocal adjustments.
DYNAMICSOFSOCIALGROUPSANDINSTITUTIONS
95
(2) The need to establish correspondence between the group nomenclature and the institutional nomenclature provides the opportunity to raise a very important problem. It is not enough to adjust the titles used in the nomenclatures. The content of each heading must also be reviewed, or more specifically, the criteria for defining and describing the groups and institutions to be identified. This can be illustrated by an example which is not in itself of major significance for the present study, but does provide a useful demonstration of the difficulties to be overcome. If we attempt to set up the correspondence between firms as an institution and a group of employees, e.g., unskilled workers, in order to translate information on an industry’s long-term prospects in terms of its impact on the situation of these war-kers, several ways to describe the production process are available, and some of them are more efficient for the purpose than others: -The national plan contains a description of the production process and its probable development over the next 5 to 10 years, couched in terms of the input-output table. The forecasts relate mainly to the level of activity of the various industries, tr-ends in labor productivity, probable requirements for skilled and unskilled worker-s, engineers, etc. Obviously these are precious data, since they describe the foreseeable movement of parameters of prime importance to the future of unskilled workers as a group. However, they are not enough on their own to describe the position of the group. Other descriptions may enhance our knowledge in relevant ways. Two of them are noted below: -The purpose of the technological forecasts [2] prepared on behalf of the Commissariat General du Plan is to identify innovations which might affect the level of employment, the mix of skills required, the structure of investment or the structure of firms. Such innovations would have a direct impact on the labor- force, including the group of unskilled workers. It is clear, for example, that if the anticipated transformation of textile manufacturing into a heavy chemical- and electronic-based industry comes about, several hundred thousand workers will find themselves in danger of a radical change in their position. -Another style of description which can provide useful complementary information is in terms of enterprises. The position and outlook of these workers is obviously affected by the situation of the firm employing them, which may be (using the jargon of the dualist economy theoreticians) located in a central or peripheral sector, have modern or out-of-date facilities or be organized internally along modern or traditional lines, etc. In each case, the wage level, working conditions, staff relationships and the extent of worker participation, etc., will be different. It can be seen that to establish an unambiguous correspondence between the institutional and group nomenclatures means developing and using compatible languages for labelling the headings and defining their contents. This is no mean task, from what has just been said- and that comment was limited to the economic aspect of the correspondence. The path described should simultaneously be travelled in reverse, by defining the group “unskilled workers” so as to make its influence clear on, in particular, the structure of firms and their organizational system or on changes in the legal and political framework within which firms operate. All in all, a fairly complex iterative process must be followed before the goal of setting up a nomenclature of groups and institutions can be achieved.
96
H. AUJAC
B. THE DETERMINANTS Bl3AVIOR
OI- THI; MODLL:
AND STRATEGY
The socioeconomic on the consideration groups and institutions is the definition
model we are trying to construct is essentially based, as was seen. of the behavior. or better still, the strategy of the social partners, of which society is composed. At the heart of the present research
of what is meant
by the terms “behavior”
and “strategy”.”
To show the approach, perhaps the most fruitful method is to describe the work program (still provisional) now being implemented to study groups and institutions. For the sake of clarity, groups will be used as the basis of the discussion. but the same technique applies. mutatis mutandis, for institutions. The first step is to collect the basic relevant information’. after which a start can be made on the fundamental task. which is to define the strategies of the group under review. This is approached from the standpoint that the group exists and operates in its own specific environment, which we will refer to as its “universe”. Its members use certain specific techniques, and likewise use goods produced through application of specific techniques. They have contacts with certain other groups and institutions only. Their social status is specific to them, and determines their specific rights and powers. The group’s universe thus has several dimensions. technical, economic, social. political, etc., which al-e to be identified by appropriate parameters, some of which, morcovel-, cannot be measured quantitatively. The universe of a group may resemble that of another quite closely, to an extent which may even enable them to intercommunicate with relative ease. But many universes differ fundamentally: there is no mutual coml.‘rchension, no bridge between their groups. Further, each universe evolves under the influence of technical, economic, social and political consequence of the strategies system. Located in their own appl-sisal of their situation, know
or think
tions-even universes.
they
know
factors which. in the final analysis, are no more deployed by the other groups and institutions
universe, the members of a group based on the information at their and understand
of the situation
than the in the
cal-ry out a permanent disposal. and what the)
of other
groups
though, as was noted above, they have no means of penetrating Also pertinent is their cultural level. in the broad sense of this term.
and instituthe other
The judgment they reach, whatever its validity, provides the basis for the formulation of their claim to remedy whatever feature of their universe they consider to be unpleasant
’ Unanilnit)! on the meaning of these turns is noteworthy for its absence. In this study. they arc taken in the following scnscs: -“Social behavior” is both the mode of existence and mans of action of a certain group. The term is intended to convey an imprccsion of positive but neutral observation. indepcndcnt of the values sclectod by the members of the group or any judgment by the observer. --“Strateg) ” is dcfincd both by the dctcrmination of an aim to bc achicvcd and the orfanitation chosen to give concrete exprcsbion to the means employed for the purpow, which includcy;. whcrc appropriate, prevailing over the conflicting objectives w-hi& other groups or institutions may be striving to attain. The term “Ftratcgy” has therefore a richer and more prccisc content than “behavior”. ” This information i< mainly descriptions of material chnractcristics of the group, its sire. age structure, source of intake and wctor of destination, and if the group is engaged in economic xti>ity, its dictrihution among economic sectors. its employment rate, etc. Alvo ncccssary is to dcterminc ho\\ cohesive the group is, and in many instances, its organizational structure.
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITUTIONS
97
or actively intolerable. It is also the benchmark for their aspirations to reach the ideal situation their cultural level enables them to perceive as a development from their present position. If and when their claims and aspirations reach a sufficient degree of consensus and intensity, they become objectives. At this point the group will define the strategy which it hopes, given its means of action and the obstacles to be surmounted, will enable it to achieve its ends. The analysis of the historical behavior of a group should help to reveal the strategies characteristically pursued by it in response to modifications of its universe. Domination strategies show its efforts to gain control of the movement of a relevant parameter. Other strategies disclose the group’s acceptance of the changes in its universe, in that the practical problem addressed is how it can make the best of things. Also observed on occasion are “disaster strategies”, which arc completely unsuited to achievement of the aim pursued. This then is the starting point on which the present approach to the determination of the strategies of groups and institutions is based. It may stem as it does to the author, a little mechanical, since the autonomy of each actor on the social scene is limited to choosing the most efficient among the strategies used earlier to deal with a similar situation. In this schema, neither a group nor an institution is deemed capable of inventing a new strategy or promoting a social innovation. However, this is only the first phase. History can instruct us as to the dynamics of groups and institutions, the disappearance of some and the birth of others, the emergence of new aspirations and the strategies usually adopted. This information can then help to formulate the framework of the model and test its reliability by verifying that it can adequately reconstitute the main features of the economic and social development of the past 2 decades. As a collateral follow up. one is entitled to hope that surveys of group and institution leaders will yield further inputs enabling a forecast to be made, within acceptable margins of error, of the reactions of those cancel-ned to foreseeable modifications of their universe. The stages of the project can be seen clearly, and may be summarised as follows: -Definition of the “universe” of a group, -Analysis of the conditions governing the group’s assessment of its position, -Identification of its claims and aspirations; formulation of its objectives, -Identification of the means at its disposal, -Research for and statement of its characteristic strategies. Before defining the content of each stage, a word is in order as to the documentation required. At present, given that the aim is to see whether or not it is worth pursuing this line of research, only written materials are being used. As it happens, ink has been flowing copiously since the events of May 1968. The economists and sociologists in particular have had a field day writing about the main social groups. It is intended also to consult the trade union press, the general newspapers and the program of the political parties and unions. The intention is to determine whether an analytical framework can be built up in which all this information can be integrated. In addition, a number of group or institution leaders will be interviewed, inter alia because the results will help to develop a schema for the surveys to be carried out later. A brief summary of the content of the various stages will now be presented (the identity profile is that of a group of workers-which particular group will not be stated).
98
H. AUJAC
a. Definition
of the Group’s
“Universe”
For each
dimension of the universe, it is necessary to ascertain which elements are specific to the group. Its social relationships with institutions and other groups, and the nature and contents of these relationships will be analyzed. For example, this group of workers is in contact during working hours with the firm employing it, with members of its own group and of other groups such as foreign laborers, foremen, factory medical staff, etc. It is also of interest to note which groups the group under review has no contact with. Outside working hours, the group is in contact with such institutions as the public transport system, the social security authorities, the tax office, recreational clubs, the schools attended by its members’ children, etc., and with members of other groupsneighbors. shopkeepers, friends with whom they share common activities, doctors, the police. etc. As can be seen, the idea is to define each group (and institution) by the elements which characterize the various dimensions of its universe. b. Analysis
of the Conditions
they
components: what its members think of the position of the members of other groups, the image of society to them by the mass media, the interpretation
know
development. etc. In this light, a French worker’s viewpoint stands every chance of differing from that of his North African workmate. Their universes are comparable only insofar as they do the same job in the same workshop in the same plant. For the rest, the between their universes are evident, as are the in the extent of their knowledge of French society and the content of their cultural endowment. c. Identification
Formulation
of Objectives
Current and potential claims can be brought to light by analyzing the elements entering the group’s appraisal of its position, which is defined by the “readings” of the parameters which specify the group’s universe. Given the overall state of the for the assessment is usually an overall one-the state of each individual parameter will be judged to be satisfactory, or less than satisfactory. Members of the group can be surveyed to determine the ranking of these parameters in order of the intensity of the claim made in respect to each. For example, a certain category of workers may assign higher wages as its top priority, followed in order by a shorter working week, better housing, training to improve occupational executives, by contrast, may assign top place to job interest, followed by increased leisure time, better knowledge of career potential. closer with the decision-taking
“Aspirations” society which
Tatisfaction of needs which can be met in the csisting social are the quest, conscious or unconscious, formulated, is thought to be better than today’s,
framework. for a new
DYNAMICS
sarily
OF SOCIAL
the second
GROUPS
99
AND INSTITUTIONS
on the list since the order
depends
on the weighting
attached
to each
claim. By analyzing in this manner the position of social groups over the past 20 years, the cycle of claims renewed and new claims brought forward will be laid bare: the existence of this phenomenon is known, and it has concerned all groups. A claim which musters the support of a sufficient number of members of a group may be considered to have become one of the group’s objectives. There is no doubt that aspirations
play a fundamental
role in the long-term
develop-
ment of society, but it is still too early to address this problem. Analysis of party trade union platforms and the political press should help reveal what they are.
d. Iderl tification c1.fthe Means at the Group s Disposal As ;1general rule, settlement of one of a group’s claims modifies parameters of the universe be considered unfavorable
one or more
and
of the
of other groups or institutions in a direction which will tend to by their members or leaders. The first group will thus come into
conflict with certain of its partners. Like its adversaries, it can bring certain arms to bear, and may choose the ground on which it wishes to fight. For each clashing group and institution a list of the means of action and the terrain of endeavor is to be drawn up.
e. Research Jbr and Statement
oj’a Grmp’s Characteristic Strategies
A table will be prepared covering the last 2 decades for each group and institution showing the correspondence between changes in its universe on the one hand, and its aims and methods of mobilizing its resources on the other. This correspondence may be referred to as its “behavior function”. For many groups and institutions there is a quasi-cyclical repetition of situations which although not identical, have comparable features, and of strategies which turn out to be limited in number and change only slowly over time. It may well prove that the behavior functions are, all in all, as stable or as unstable as the technical coefficients in the input-output table, and that social innovation OCCUI-sas rarely as does technical innovation. In any case, the systematic pursuit of this type of historical analysis, whose difficulty should not be underestimated, should bring to light the most frequently met situations and strategies, and will perhaps unveil the changes in strategies which may flow from the slow apprenticeship of its universe
of a social operator
as altered
C. INTCRDIXPENDENCL
following
trying
to adapt to or dominate
the new structures
a lasting change.
AND DOhlINATION
I;FI‘ECTS
As we know, there is a continual process of interaction between groups and institaking the form of interdependence or domination. The interdependence tutions, relations may be of many kinds. Among the examples one must obviously include economic interdependence, which is adequately depicted by the national accounts, and also political and social links. Research involves identifying the mechanisms, institutions. legislation, regulations and social habits which govern the various types of interdependence. Domination effects may be temporary or permanent, and are equally numerous. They include economic monopolies, but clearly also important are control of the educational system or the mass media, which almost the only vehicles through which members practical application of technical progress. The history
of French
society
have the formidable property of social groups can be initiated
since the end of the war yields
an abundant
of being into the harvest
of
100
H. AUJAC
information on all these questions. The concept of economic and social development was defined earlier in this paper in these words: “this development should be considered as both the cause and the effect of a series of social disequilibria successively affecting a given aspect of the situation of a certain social group or institution. . . . These disequilibria engender reactions which, according to the case, the opportunity or the ruling circumstances, take concrete form as an economic, political or social initiative, or several of these simultaneously”. To come to grips with all this involves analyzing such varied phenomena as the practically continuous inflation experienced since the end of the war, the technical progress achieved, the consequences of economic growth, the operation of the Common Market, the population explosion. the bulk importation of foreign labor, university reform, the alternation of political parties in power under the Fourth Republic and, in the Fifth Republic, the occasionally disparate trends that can be identified within the governmental majority. The analytical framework which has been described here offers an instrument for translating the diversity of universes. objectives and strategies of each of the social partners into interdependence and domination relationships of various kinds. Rightly or wrongly, the author believes that it corresponds to a realistic concept of the way society actually works. IV. Conclusion Two remarks will serve as a conclusion. the second relates to its structure.
A. POSSIBLE
The first concerns possible uses of the model;
USES
In increasing order of ambition
the results sought for are:
-The collection of information of all kinds pertaining to the development of the French economy and society, to be organized in a coherent frame which facilitates meaningful analysis; -Appraisal of the impact on the development of the situation of individual social partners of the long run forecasts made as part of the national planning process; -The establishment of the social balance sheet of the various groups and institutions by bringing to light the main constituent elements of their universes and the state of the parameters characterizing them, as perceived by their members; -The submission for the information of those responsible for economic policy of other and more efficient ways to meet the claims of a given social group than, for example, implementing a practically identical rate of wage increase for all social groups as usually tends to be done; -The provision of the framework needed to organize coordination between social groups so that national planning need no longer limit itself to economic aims with a few special measures thrown in for the most underprivileged, as at present. Instead, planning would be given a greater social orientation. Its aims would be to program the improvement in the position of individual groups in the light of the position of all groups and institutions. It would be underpinned by a lucid prior analysis of the areas of possible agreement and the points on which the opponents in a conflict hold irreconcilably divergent views.
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL
GROUPS
B. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC
101
AND INSTITUTIONS
MODEL AND ECONOMIC
Obviously, the socioeconomic from the conventional input-output able, in such ways as:
ANALYSIS
model described here is very different table. Yet in many respects its structure
in nature is compar-
-It relates to the satisfaction of social demands as expressed through claims and aspirations including final demand for goods and services as measured in the input-output table, but also a whole series of new goods, often intangible and not open to market transactions because they have no price, but which are nonetheless a growingly important component of the needs of today’s society. -It is set up on the basis of a nomenclature of groups and institutions whose role is similar to the industry nomenclature in the input-output table. The problem is always how to disaggregate an aggregate. In this case the aggregate is society; until now it has been the production process. The aim in both cases is to specify the constituent parts in order to discern the particular features of each and analyze their mutual links. -It is structured by behavior functions whose role is analogous to that of the input-output coefficients. However, in the model, the inputs into a group or institution are the modifications of its universe engendered by the strategies of other groups or institutions. In place of production the outputs are on the one hand, claims and aspirations, and on the other, the strategies adopted by each group or institution in response to changes in its environment. As can be seen, there is a certain affinity between the two structures. Unfortunately, there is a capital difference that is evident at first glance: the behavior functions are incomparably more complex than the technical coefficients. The correspondence they are intended to establish between changes in universes and the strategies adopted can be brought to light only with difficulty, for the universes are multidimensional and incomparable, and the strategies vary as to both the objectives sought and the means brought to bear. There can be no doubt that the task is onerous indeed. Hence this request for any help that can be given to accomplish it. References 1. Aujac, H., Remarks
on the Relationship between the Efficiency of the National Planning Process Economic and Political Structure, paper submitted to the First International Symposium ofNational Productivity Centres, Budapest, Hungary, March 19-22, 1974. Aujac, H., A new Approach to Technological Forecasting, in Science and Technology in Economic Growth, B. R. Williams, ed., Proceedings of a Conference by the International Economic Association at Saint Anton, Austria, 1973. and
2.
the Technical,
Received I 7 December 19 75
FORECASTING
AND SOCIAL
CHANGE
10, 89-101
(1977)
89
Towards a New Social Input-Output Table: the Dynamics of Social Groups and Institutions * H. AUJAC
ABSTRACT
Input-output analysis has been very helpful to elaborate the 5 and 10 years sectoral thrccasts which support the French medium-term economic policy, This analysis makes it possible to take into account the interdcpcndcnccs between the various sectors of the economy. This sort of analysis must be completed by another kind of analysis which is not based on the sectors of the economic activity but instead on the groups which characterize the French society in its present state of devclopmcnt. The relations between the groups set up on scvcral plans, i.e., the economic, sociological, political and ideological plans. On the one hand, the behavior of each group depends on the characteristics proper to the groups, and. on the other hand, on its situation on the various plans, and mainly on the other groups. In this system of social accounting, which has still to be built up, the social groups play the part of the industries, the inputs are the modifications of the situation of each group and the outputs are the behavior of this group facing these modifications of its situation. This is the beginning of a research endeavor made particularly difficult by the great number of plans of interactions bctwccn the groups that have to be taken into account.
I. Introduction This paper has the limited aim of describing the outline of what is as yet no more than a research project. But the project itself is an ambitious one. Its aim is to develop a tool for analysis and forecasting to serve a similar and complementary purpose to, but nevertheless different from, that of an input-output table. The latter analyzes production relationships. The new table would analyze society itself. based not on the technical coefficients relating production activities, but on the strategies of social groups and institutions [I ] . The need to build such a model stems from the transformations undergone by the French and other social bodies through technical progress, the opening of frontiers to international trade and real economic growth occurring at a rate unknown heretofore. The model would be used to analyze and perhaps to program these transformations. It
H. AUJAC ic a Scientific Adviser to the Chairman, Bureau d’Informations et de PrCvisions Economiques, (B.I.P.E.), Neuilly-sur-Seine. France; Director of Studies, Ecole dcs Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociates. Paris, France. * Paper submitted to the Input-Output International meeting-UN0 Vienna, Austria, April 1974. 0 Elsevier North-Holland,
Inc., 1977
90
H. AUJAC
became evident in the mid-1960’s that such a model is necessary. The grave social crisis Until 1968 economic growth in France within the existing institutional, social and political framework, which there seemed reason to into question. growth process was satisfactorily analyzed and controlled using the instruments might be achieved table was used to forecast level of production number of jobs corresponding public authorities’ final and full employment objectives. At that time seemed close link between the real content of growth tools available secure its balanced pursuit. Nonetheless. before the social crisis of May An irreversible mutation of the institutional. social and political frame under way. In changing circumstances. economic taking on a different significance. New and services social groups taking beside those already power to make of view prevail. social apparatus normal operation Social progress growth are no longer synonymous. although might have been thought of as the same as little decade ago. The very meaning of the word development change is so that the realities social evolution narrow limits table in particular. paper is that we must seek to construct model capable of analyzing. those most intcrestcd model are to whom the future French society is an important issue, but the problems raised and the results which within are such as to deserve the attention West. In the analysis, those experienced II. The New Social Reality: Definition of a Suitable Analytical Tool The national accounts. and more specifically the input-output table, have so closely depicted the social and economic realities of France in the 1960’s that it seems useful to take them as a starting point for identifying the areas in which reality has progressively escaped them. The distinguishing feature of these tables is the nomenclature used to define economic agents, the goods and services taken into account and the economic and technical ’ This rcscnrch is the subject of the author’s seminar at the Ecole Pratiquc des Hautcs Etudes, en Sciences Socialcs. It is at its beginnings, nnd will bc carried out during some months for the account of the Commissariat CXnkral du Plan. It is a ions and complex enquiry. and one of the purposes of dexribing it at this early stage is to benefit from the support of those who consider it worthwhile furthering.
91
DYNAMICS 01: SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITCTIONS
mechanisms economic
which
constitute
development
their structure.
on which
A brief
reminder
their use for forecasting
follows
and control
of the theory is based.
of
At each
stage of the discussion an attempt will be made to show how and why they are gradually losing touch with the realities of the social and economic situation of today. A. NIW PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL GROUPS: TIlE I:ORMALIZATION
OI: BEHAVIOR
ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL
(I) New products They often have no day by day. Among
AND STRATEGY: MLCAHNISMS
have entered exchange
the
the social demand function alongside the old ones. and may be nonmaterial, but their social value rises obvious are the stress laid on working conditions. job
value,
most
security, satisfactory housing accommodation environment. Intensified needs are expressed
and the quality of the social and cultural in the fields of health and education. There
is a demand for enhanced participation by those concerned in the decisions which determine their lot. Constant reference is made to the desirable equality of treatment of immigrant and French workers, to the need for accrued social integration and perhaps even t‘l-icndship, to the respect of human dignity and to a horizon with some hope. These goods arc of a new character. But although their social significance is growing constantly. they are not a pal-t of the national accounts terminology. The economic accounts recognize households, the business sector. the government and the foreign sector as social operators which may be thought of as the beginnings of a nomenclature of the groups and institutions which characterize our society today. However, this is superficial and deceptive. The true agents dealt with in the national accounts are such aggregates as consumption, investment. or savings, and they are related to each other by propensities which it is difficult, if not impossible (we will bc returning to this point). to match up with the strategy of a given social group or groups of firms. Yet the social entities appearing daily on the economic and social scene, whether in leading or minor roles, are easily identifiable social categories or pressure gm~lps. Examples include unskilled labor, immigrant workers, engineers over the age of SO years, dairy farmers. inhabitants of backward regions. specific categories of civil servants, students, would-be new entrants into the labor market. etc. There are also the lobbies, the employer federations. the trade unions, the political parties, etc. Nor can we neglect the surge of public opinion on specific issues, such as the outcry against pollution and atomic weaponry, the movement in favor of family planning or Women’s Liberation. Again. thcrc is the panoply of institutions: not just the public sector and the business corporations. but also various public and private agencies. the churches, etc. These social operators. whose activity is on occasion input-output table.
crowned
with total success,
are nowhere
to be found
in the
The operators taken into account by the input-output table are the various branches of economic activity (almost 100 branches in the French table). But the economic and social strategies of these branches cannot be expressed by the ex post relationships conveyed in a set of technical coefficients and capital/output ratios. (2) Although the national accounts, nominally intended to appraise the elements forming current society, have an inadequate terminological armory, their main shortcoming is the unsuitability of the behavioral functions used to animate the economic and social mechanisms of the model. A brief overview is in order here. The various propensities, technical coefficients and input-output ratios used are all ex
92
H. AUJAC
post quantitative data whose observed values are the outcome of the daily conflicts between social partners striving to make their point of view prevail. These conflicts arise because there is no reason for the ex ante ambitions of the proponents to be compatible. What we discover ex post is the result of the confrontation of the strategies implemented by the actors in the process, after their behavior has been impressed into compatibility by the constraints which society brings to bear on them (obviously including economic constraints), in order to secure its own reproduction. By reason of the interplay of the mechanisms determining the interdependence of the social partners, we are not entitled to assign a behavior to any given group or institution: the behavioral pattern can only be attributed to the system as a whol~.~ For as long as technical progress is characterized by higher productivity for the same goods rather than the proliferation of innovations, for as long as each member of society 01 social group patterns itself on the bcllavior of tile individual or group immediately above it on the income scale, for as long as the members of a society accept the norms of the consumer society, maintain the extant political and social consensus and experience no particular difficulties in their external economic and political dealings: for so long will the economy progress steadily, and the problems emerging will be strictly economic in nature. This may seem to justify the conclusion that the relative stability of the plans and strategies of operators induces a degree of stability in the observed values of the propensities, technical coefficients and capital/output ratios. Indeed. this claim may properly be made for the observed record of the early 1960’s. But today’s society is very different. There is no longer a social and political consensus. The aims of the various social categories, pressure groups and institutions are incompatible. The concept of Social Progress of Society is being voided of meaning: all that is left is the social progress of individual groups or institutions. To analyze this kind of society, the true behavior functions must be brought to the surface, i.e., a statement for each economic operator of his aims and means of action, and the strategy he will adopt given the opportunities and obstacles presented by the economic and social environment, one of whose essential constituents, moreover, is the pursuit of their own strategies by the other groups and institutions in the system, Similarly, the National Accounts relate only to economic mechanisms, which is reasonable enough since this is what they are intended to do. However, in parallel with the economic apparatus, but occasionally cutting right across it. there are other social as well as political mechanisms, in particular those working to foster the survival of the existing social patterns, which determine the rate, and even more important, the content of growth. In the final analysis, the National Accounts recognize the right to existence of a single decision-taking center, the public authorities, to whom are assigned the means of acting on the other social partners via the fiscal system, social security, investment policy, etc. The other partners are ascribed a single role only: obedience to the powers that exist. As autonomous decision-taking centers, they do not exist. This schematization of economic and social evolution is steadily becoming less and less realistic. Today the public authorities are one sometimes dominant pressure group among many.
’ A simple illustrative cvample is given by equilibrium theory. The ex ante strategy of each firm is to maximize its profits. The cs post result is that none make any profits. Can one then accept the guideline that the behavioral criterion for firms as a whole is the quest for zero profit?
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITUTIONS
93
Nor can the current organization of the National Accounts translate the variety of means of action deployed by the various social partners. Some are of course economic and are expressed in terms of prices, wages, etc. But others are social and even political, for example, strikes or political pressures to modulate legislation in certain desired directions. As the public authorities intervene in a growing range of areas while their ability to resist the pressures of different groups or institutions is being steadily eroded, the new social and political currents are tending to move in channels alongside and in some cases supplanting the standard ones. However, when the problem of the correspondence between reality and the model of it offered by the National Accounts is approached, the same conclusion is reached: the divorce has gone so far that the very notion of social and economic development on which the model is based must be reappraised. B. TOWARDS A CONCEPT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY’S
ADAPTED TO
REALITY
It seems clear that the rather reassuring view of growth based on the harmonious balance between aggregates linked by propensities, technical coefficients and capital/ output ratios must give way to a more “tragic ” image of development based on the recognition of conflicts between social partners, to be analyzed in terms of strategies of domination, adaptation or surrender. From this standpoint, economic and social development should be considered as both the cause and the effect of a series of “social disequilibria” successively affecting a given aspect of the situation of a certain social group or institution. These disequilibria translate the vicissitudes of the confrontation between the aspirations of the members or leadership of an individual category or institution and their scope for action, given the means at hand and the constraints imposed by the environment. They engender reactions which, according to the case-the opportunity or the ruling circumstances, take concrete form as an economic, political or social initiative, or several of these simultaneously. These efforts of a social category or an institution to implement to itself a more satisfactory social equilibrium may entail the reversal of an initial imbalance. More often the result is to propagate the movement among other social categories, but in a different form. This being so, the content of national planning should be designed to allow the public authorities to practise the art of managing the conflicts which arise between social groups and institutions, including those in which they are directly embroiled as one pressure group among others. This view of economic and social development puts the strategy of the members of social groups and the representatives of institutions squarely at the center of the social and economic dynamic process. Of course it is difficult to express it in traditional national accounting terms. A suitable socioeconomic model is required for this purpose and an attempt should be made to lay down the broad lines of such a model if it is to provide an operational image of the relevant characteristics of current reality.
III. A First Outline of a Socioeconomic Model It is now time to translate the foregoing appraisal of social and economic trends in France into terms of a research program for the development of the socioeconomic model we now know to be necessary. In the first place, the groups and institutions characterizing our society must be defined: in the model, they will be treated as decision-taking centers. This is followed by
94
H. AUJAC
a statement of the spirit in which the analysis will bc done of the behavior patterns or rather, the strategies on which the model is grounded. Finally. this section will review ways to take account of the main relations of interdependence or domination which can be discerned in our society today. A. THI; DLI’INITION DECISION-TAKING
Or THl: GROUPS
AND INSTITUTIONS
TO CONSIDL R AS AlJTONOXlOUS
(‘b:NTI:KS
(I) The groups and institutions to be taken into account should clearly be those whose records of the past twenty years and analysis of current trends show as having played-or being capable of playin?-a substantial economic, political or social role in determining the content and orientation of the development of the French social body. Examples of the groups worth studying include, among others:3 groups which are defined by the institutions in which their members carry on their activities. The production process, for example, leads to the sociooccupational categories described in employment statistics, and some of the groups to bc considered UC subsets of these. For example, “unskilled workers” will be split into French and nonFrench: they face different problems. In the category “executives”. production executives will bc distinguished from higher management executives in staff functions such as marketing, E.D.P., Kesearch and Development, etc: there are marked differences in the trade union and political views of each of these groups. “Farm operators” will be classified according to the type of agriculture practized: large-scale industrial-style farming in the Parisian region and the north of Prance, the one-crop agriculture in certain parts of the South (wine, market gardening, etc.) and the small-scale multicrop farmin, ~7characteristic of Central France and the South West. Obviously the position, problems, influence and reactions of each arc not comparable. The same is true of the liberal professions, the civil service, etc. Other groups are of a different nature; examples of this are the social categories savers, investors-but also. new distinguished in the national accOLlnts-consI1mers. entrants into the labor market, students, the elderly, mothers of large families. the physically handicapped, etc.; or again: the government. the political parties, the trade unions, the employer federations. lobbies. pressure groups and movements of opinion. These are ;I few examples of many. It is important to allow for all groups which pose, or have some possibility of posin g economic, social or political problems. Obviously, there is overlap between many of these groups, and a given person may well belong to several of them.’ The existence of groups which al-e defined through their membership in institutions (especially firms and government departments) means that a nomenclature of institutions must also be drawn up. This nomenclature must be constantly collated with the nomenclature of the groups concerned, with a progressive set of reciprocal adjustments.
DYNAMICSOFSOCIALGROUPSANDINSTITUTIONS
95
(2) The need to establish correspondence between the group nomenclature and the institutional nomenclature provides the opportunity to raise a very important problem. It is not enough to adjust the titles used in the nomenclatures. The content of each heading must also be reviewed, or more specifically, the criteria for defining and describing the groups and institutions to be identified. This can be illustrated by an example which is not in itself of major significance for the present study, but does provide a useful demonstration of the difficulties to be overcome. If we attempt to set up the correspondence between firms as an institution and a group of employees, e.g., unskilled workers, in order to translate information on an industry’s long-term prospects in terms of its impact on the situation of these war-kers, several ways to describe the production process are available, and some of them are more efficient for the purpose than others: -The national plan contains a description of the production process and its probable development over the next 5 to 10 years, couched in terms of the input-output table. The forecasts relate mainly to the level of activity of the various industries, tr-ends in labor productivity, probable requirements for skilled and unskilled worker-s, engineers, etc. Obviously these are precious data, since they describe the foreseeable movement of parameters of prime importance to the future of unskilled workers as a group. However, they are not enough on their own to describe the position of the group. Other descriptions may enhance our knowledge in relevant ways. Two of them are noted below: -The purpose of the technological forecasts [2] prepared on behalf of the Commissariat General du Plan is to identify innovations which might affect the level of employment, the mix of skills required, the structure of investment or the structure of firms. Such innovations would have a direct impact on the labor- force, including the group of unskilled workers. It is clear, for example, that if the anticipated transformation of textile manufacturing into a heavy chemical- and electronic-based industry comes about, several hundred thousand workers will find themselves in danger of a radical change in their position. -Another style of description which can provide useful complementary information is in terms of enterprises. The position and outlook of these workers is obviously affected by the situation of the firm employing them, which may be (using the jargon of the dualist economy theoreticians) located in a central or peripheral sector, have modern or out-of-date facilities or be organized internally along modern or traditional lines, etc. In each case, the wage level, working conditions, staff relationships and the extent of worker participation, etc., will be different. It can be seen that to establish an unambiguous correspondence between the institutional and group nomenclatures means developing and using compatible languages for labelling the headings and defining their contents. This is no mean task, from what has just been said- and that comment was limited to the economic aspect of the correspondence. The path described should simultaneously be travelled in reverse, by defining the group “unskilled workers” so as to make its influence clear on, in particular, the structure of firms and their organizational system or on changes in the legal and political framework within which firms operate. All in all, a fairly complex iterative process must be followed before the goal of setting up a nomenclature of groups and institutions can be achieved.
96
H. AUJAC
B. THE DETERMINANTS Bl3AVIOR
OI- THI; MODLL:
AND STRATEGY
The socioeconomic on the consideration groups and institutions is the definition
model we are trying to construct is essentially based, as was seen. of the behavior. or better still, the strategy of the social partners, of which society is composed. At the heart of the present research
of what is meant
by the terms “behavior”
and “strategy”.”
To show the approach, perhaps the most fruitful method is to describe the work program (still provisional) now being implemented to study groups and institutions. For the sake of clarity, groups will be used as the basis of the discussion. but the same technique applies. mutatis mutandis, for institutions. The first step is to collect the basic relevant information’. after which a start can be made on the fundamental task. which is to define the strategies of the group under review. This is approached from the standpoint that the group exists and operates in its own specific environment, which we will refer to as its “universe”. Its members use certain specific techniques, and likewise use goods produced through application of specific techniques. They have contacts with certain other groups and institutions only. Their social status is specific to them, and determines their specific rights and powers. The group’s universe thus has several dimensions. technical, economic, social. political, etc., which al-e to be identified by appropriate parameters, some of which, morcovel-, cannot be measured quantitatively. The universe of a group may resemble that of another quite closely, to an extent which may even enable them to intercommunicate with relative ease. But many universes differ fundamentally: there is no mutual coml.‘rchension, no bridge between their groups. Further, each universe evolves under the influence of technical, economic, social and political consequence of the strategies system. Located in their own appl-sisal of their situation, know
or think
tions-even universes.
they
know
factors which. in the final analysis, are no more deployed by the other groups and institutions
universe, the members of a group based on the information at their and understand
of the situation
than the in the
cal-ry out a permanent disposal. and what the)
of other
groups
though, as was noted above, they have no means of penetrating Also pertinent is their cultural level. in the broad sense of this term.
and instituthe other
The judgment they reach, whatever its validity, provides the basis for the formulation of their claim to remedy whatever feature of their universe they consider to be unpleasant
’ Unanilnit)! on the meaning of these turns is noteworthy for its absence. In this study. they arc taken in the following scnscs: -“Social behavior” is both the mode of existence and mans of action of a certain group. The term is intended to convey an imprccsion of positive but neutral observation. indepcndcnt of the values sclectod by the members of the group or any judgment by the observer. --“Strateg) ” is dcfincd both by the dctcrmination of an aim to bc achicvcd and the orfanitation chosen to give concrete exprcsbion to the means employed for the purpow, which includcy;. whcrc appropriate, prevailing over the conflicting objectives w-hi& other groups or institutions may be striving to attain. The term “Ftratcgy” has therefore a richer and more prccisc content than “behavior”. ” This information i< mainly descriptions of material chnractcristics of the group, its sire. age structure, source of intake and wctor of destination, and if the group is engaged in economic xti>ity, its dictrihution among economic sectors. its employment rate, etc. Alvo ncccssary is to dcterminc ho\\ cohesive the group is, and in many instances, its organizational structure.
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL GROUPS AND INSTITUTIONS
97
or actively intolerable. It is also the benchmark for their aspirations to reach the ideal situation their cultural level enables them to perceive as a development from their present position. If and when their claims and aspirations reach a sufficient degree of consensus and intensity, they become objectives. At this point the group will define the strategy which it hopes, given its means of action and the obstacles to be surmounted, will enable it to achieve its ends. The analysis of the historical behavior of a group should help to reveal the strategies characteristically pursued by it in response to modifications of its universe. Domination strategies show its efforts to gain control of the movement of a relevant parameter. Other strategies disclose the group’s acceptance of the changes in its universe, in that the practical problem addressed is how it can make the best of things. Also observed on occasion are “disaster strategies”, which arc completely unsuited to achievement of the aim pursued. This then is the starting point on which the present approach to the determination of the strategies of groups and institutions is based. It may stem as it does to the author, a little mechanical, since the autonomy of each actor on the social scene is limited to choosing the most efficient among the strategies used earlier to deal with a similar situation. In this schema, neither a group nor an institution is deemed capable of inventing a new strategy or promoting a social innovation. However, this is only the first phase. History can instruct us as to the dynamics of groups and institutions, the disappearance of some and the birth of others, the emergence of new aspirations and the strategies usually adopted. This information can then help to formulate the framework of the model and test its reliability by verifying that it can adequately reconstitute the main features of the economic and social development of the past 2 decades. As a collateral follow up. one is entitled to hope that surveys of group and institution leaders will yield further inputs enabling a forecast to be made, within acceptable margins of error, of the reactions of those cancel-ned to foreseeable modifications of their universe. The stages of the project can be seen clearly, and may be summarised as follows: -Definition of the “universe” of a group, -Analysis of the conditions governing the group’s assessment of its position, -Identification of its claims and aspirations; formulation of its objectives, -Identification of the means at its disposal, -Research for and statement of its characteristic strategies. Before defining the content of each stage, a word is in order as to the documentation required. At present, given that the aim is to see whether or not it is worth pursuing this line of research, only written materials are being used. As it happens, ink has been flowing copiously since the events of May 1968. The economists and sociologists in particular have had a field day writing about the main social groups. It is intended also to consult the trade union press, the general newspapers and the program of the political parties and unions. The intention is to determine whether an analytical framework can be built up in which all this information can be integrated. In addition, a number of group or institution leaders will be interviewed, inter alia because the results will help to develop a schema for the surveys to be carried out later. A brief summary of the content of the various stages will now be presented (the identity profile is that of a group of workers-which particular group will not be stated).
98
H. AUJAC
a. Definition
of the Group’s
“Universe”
For each
dimension of the universe, it is necessary to ascertain which elements are specific to the group. Its social relationships with institutions and other groups, and the nature and contents of these relationships will be analyzed. For example, this group of workers is in contact during working hours with the firm employing it, with members of its own group and of other groups such as foreign laborers, foremen, factory medical staff, etc. It is also of interest to note which groups the group under review has no contact with. Outside working hours, the group is in contact with such institutions as the public transport system, the social security authorities, the tax office, recreational clubs, the schools attended by its members’ children, etc., and with members of other groupsneighbors. shopkeepers, friends with whom they share common activities, doctors, the police. etc. As can be seen, the idea is to define each group (and institution) by the elements which characterize the various dimensions of its universe. b. Analysis
of the Conditions
they
components: what its members think of the position of the members of other groups, the image of society to them by the mass media, the interpretation
know
development. etc. In this light, a French worker’s viewpoint stands every chance of differing from that of his North African workmate. Their universes are comparable only insofar as they do the same job in the same workshop in the same plant. For the rest, the between their universes are evident, as are the in the extent of their knowledge of French society and the content of their cultural endowment. c. Identification
Formulation
of Objectives
Current and potential claims can be brought to light by analyzing the elements entering the group’s appraisal of its position, which is defined by the “readings” of the parameters which specify the group’s universe. Given the overall state of the for the assessment is usually an overall one-the state of each individual parameter will be judged to be satisfactory, or less than satisfactory. Members of the group can be surveyed to determine the ranking of these parameters in order of the intensity of the claim made in respect to each. For example, a certain category of workers may assign higher wages as its top priority, followed in order by a shorter working week, better housing, training to improve occupational executives, by contrast, may assign top place to job interest, followed by increased leisure time, better knowledge of career potential. closer with the decision-taking
“Aspirations” society which
Tatisfaction of needs which can be met in the csisting social are the quest, conscious or unconscious, formulated, is thought to be better than today’s,
framework. for a new
DYNAMICS
sarily
OF SOCIAL
the second
GROUPS
99
AND INSTITUTIONS
on the list since the order
depends
on the weighting
attached
to each
claim. By analyzing in this manner the position of social groups over the past 20 years, the cycle of claims renewed and new claims brought forward will be laid bare: the existence of this phenomenon is known, and it has concerned all groups. A claim which musters the support of a sufficient number of members of a group may be considered to have become one of the group’s objectives. There is no doubt that aspirations
play a fundamental
role in the long-term
develop-
ment of society, but it is still too early to address this problem. Analysis of party trade union platforms and the political press should help reveal what they are.
d. Iderl tification c1.fthe Means at the Group s Disposal As ;1general rule, settlement of one of a group’s claims modifies parameters of the universe be considered unfavorable
one or more
and
of the
of other groups or institutions in a direction which will tend to by their members or leaders. The first group will thus come into
conflict with certain of its partners. Like its adversaries, it can bring certain arms to bear, and may choose the ground on which it wishes to fight. For each clashing group and institution a list of the means of action and the terrain of endeavor is to be drawn up.
e. Research Jbr and Statement
oj’a Grmp’s Characteristic Strategies
A table will be prepared covering the last 2 decades for each group and institution showing the correspondence between changes in its universe on the one hand, and its aims and methods of mobilizing its resources on the other. This correspondence may be referred to as its “behavior function”. For many groups and institutions there is a quasi-cyclical repetition of situations which although not identical, have comparable features, and of strategies which turn out to be limited in number and change only slowly over time. It may well prove that the behavior functions are, all in all, as stable or as unstable as the technical coefficients in the input-output table, and that social innovation OCCUI-sas rarely as does technical innovation. In any case, the systematic pursuit of this type of historical analysis, whose difficulty should not be underestimated, should bring to light the most frequently met situations and strategies, and will perhaps unveil the changes in strategies which may flow from the slow apprenticeship of its universe
of a social operator
as altered
C. INTCRDIXPENDENCL
following
trying
to adapt to or dominate
the new structures
a lasting change.
AND DOhlINATION
I;FI‘ECTS
As we know, there is a continual process of interaction between groups and institaking the form of interdependence or domination. The interdependence tutions, relations may be of many kinds. Among the examples one must obviously include economic interdependence, which is adequately depicted by the national accounts, and also political and social links. Research involves identifying the mechanisms, institutions. legislation, regulations and social habits which govern the various types of interdependence. Domination effects may be temporary or permanent, and are equally numerous. They include economic monopolies, but clearly also important are control of the educational system or the mass media, which almost the only vehicles through which members practical application of technical progress. The history
of French
society
have the formidable property of social groups can be initiated
since the end of the war yields
an abundant
of being into the harvest
of
100
H. AUJAC
information on all these questions. The concept of economic and social development was defined earlier in this paper in these words: “this development should be considered as both the cause and the effect of a series of social disequilibria successively affecting a given aspect of the situation of a certain social group or institution. . . . These disequilibria engender reactions which, according to the case, the opportunity or the ruling circumstances, take concrete form as an economic, political or social initiative, or several of these simultaneously”. To come to grips with all this involves analyzing such varied phenomena as the practically continuous inflation experienced since the end of the war, the technical progress achieved, the consequences of economic growth, the operation of the Common Market, the population explosion. the bulk importation of foreign labor, university reform, the alternation of political parties in power under the Fourth Republic and, in the Fifth Republic, the occasionally disparate trends that can be identified within the governmental majority. The analytical framework which has been described here offers an instrument for translating the diversity of universes. objectives and strategies of each of the social partners into interdependence and domination relationships of various kinds. Rightly or wrongly, the author believes that it corresponds to a realistic concept of the way society actually works. IV. Conclusion Two remarks will serve as a conclusion. the second relates to its structure.
A. POSSIBLE
The first concerns possible uses of the model;
USES
In increasing order of ambition
the results sought for are:
-The collection of information of all kinds pertaining to the development of the French economy and society, to be organized in a coherent frame which facilitates meaningful analysis; -Appraisal of the impact on the development of the situation of individual social partners of the long run forecasts made as part of the national planning process; -The establishment of the social balance sheet of the various groups and institutions by bringing to light the main constituent elements of their universes and the state of the parameters characterizing them, as perceived by their members; -The submission for the information of those responsible for economic policy of other and more efficient ways to meet the claims of a given social group than, for example, implementing a practically identical rate of wage increase for all social groups as usually tends to be done; -The provision of the framework needed to organize coordination between social groups so that national planning need no longer limit itself to economic aims with a few special measures thrown in for the most underprivileged, as at present. Instead, planning would be given a greater social orientation. Its aims would be to program the improvement in the position of individual groups in the light of the position of all groups and institutions. It would be underpinned by a lucid prior analysis of the areas of possible agreement and the points on which the opponents in a conflict hold irreconcilably divergent views.
DYNAMICS
OF SOCIAL
GROUPS
B. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC
101
AND INSTITUTIONS
MODEL AND ECONOMIC
Obviously, the socioeconomic from the conventional input-output able, in such ways as:
ANALYSIS
model described here is very different table. Yet in many respects its structure
in nature is compar-
-It relates to the satisfaction of social demands as expressed through claims and aspirations including final demand for goods and services as measured in the input-output table, but also a whole series of new goods, often intangible and not open to market transactions because they have no price, but which are nonetheless a growingly important component of the needs of today’s society. -It is set up on the basis of a nomenclature of groups and institutions whose role is similar to the industry nomenclature in the input-output table. The problem is always how to disaggregate an aggregate. In this case the aggregate is society; until now it has been the production process. The aim in both cases is to specify the constituent parts in order to discern the particular features of each and analyze their mutual links. -It is structured by behavior functions whose role is analogous to that of the input-output coefficients. However, in the model, the inputs into a group or institution are the modifications of its universe engendered by the strategies of other groups or institutions. In place of production the outputs are on the one hand, claims and aspirations, and on the other, the strategies adopted by each group or institution in response to changes in its environment. As can be seen, there is a certain affinity between the two structures. Unfortunately, there is a capital difference that is evident at first glance: the behavior functions are incomparably more complex than the technical coefficients. The correspondence they are intended to establish between changes in universes and the strategies adopted can be brought to light only with difficulty, for the universes are multidimensional and incomparable, and the strategies vary as to both the objectives sought and the means brought to bear. There can be no doubt that the task is onerous indeed. Hence this request for any help that can be given to accomplish it. References 1. Aujac, H., Remarks
on the Relationship between the Efficiency of the National Planning Process Economic and Political Structure, paper submitted to the First International Symposium ofNational Productivity Centres, Budapest, Hungary, March 19-22, 1974. Aujac, H., A new Approach to Technological Forecasting, in Science and Technology in Economic Growth, B. R. Williams, ed., Proceedings of a Conference by the International Economic Association at Saint Anton, Austria, 1973. and
2.
the Technical,
Received I 7 December 19 75