- Email: [email protected]
Transport in transition: Lessons from the history of energy
Book reviews prospects of non-fossil generating options. However, given the capital intensity o f n u c l e a r power and the higher discount rates sought by competitive utilities, MBls would need to have a significant impact on prices. The political will to impose high prices unilaterally by a single government is not evident; efforts to secure international agreements to this approach at regional (EU) or global levels appear even more distant. Thus nuclear power, so long the beneficiary of government support, finds itself increasingly at the mercy of the market. As a result of liberalization, the market is much more risk averse. For many governments it is politically impossible to advocate greater reliance on the market on the one hand with an admission of market failure on the other. Nuclear power's fortunes are thus still compromised by dogma and ideological conviction - but now not from greens on the left but from the laissez-/aire attitudes of liberalizing governments on the right. John Chesshire SPRU University of Sussex Falmer, UK
Transport in Transition: Lessons from the History of Energy Stephen Peake Earthscan, 1994, £12.95 Nobody who has worked in the fields of energy and transport policy can have failed to be struck by the similarities, and also the differences, between the two. As a consequence, those with a foot in both camps can often benefit from applying lessons from the former to the latter. In spite of this, there is little in the literature which attempts to narrate the history of policy development and analytical frameworks in the two areas in a coherent and comparative fashion, or to draw the relevant conclusions. As such, Transport in Transition: Lessons from the History o f Energy is both welcome and timely, distilling as it does the author's wide-ranging doctoral thesis into a slim and readable volume. The early chapters outline developments in energy policy surrounding the
732
Energo,Policy 1995 Volume23 Number 8
oil crises of the 1970s, and the potentially analogous but rather later developments in transport policy. The latter culminated in the National Road Traffic Forecasts of 1989, which are now regarded as a watershed in UK transport policy, in this descriptive section parallel themes are mapped o u t - notably the progression from 'predict and provide' to a more sophisticated policy framework. This progression, it is argued, involved a complex set of changes in both c a s e s including changes of conceptualization, new approaches to policy and developments in forecasting methodology. Subsequent chapters pursue the relevant analogues in greater detail. Chapter 5 is largely devoted to measurements, and proposes a unifying metric for transport activity. This consists of gross mass movements and net mass movements, which would be broadly analogous to primary and delivered energy respectively. In particular this would give a means to analyse freight and passenger movements together, much as mtoe are used for primary fuels. in support of this proposal, the author discusses the example of grocery distribution, where a small number of HGV movements to stock a supermarket have been shown to engender a far greater number of car trips to take those goods home. Certainly this is an area where a common measure could be a useful tool to consider the total impact of the system, and to analyse the effects of alternative shopping patterns. But it is useful precisely because the supermarket checkout is at the interface between freight distribution and personal travel, and because the analysis focuses on one specific end use sector. In the broader transport picture, however, it is more open to question whether common units unify, or merely obscure, the underlying processes at work. For example, the reviewer's cycle trip to the office equates (unflatteringly, I feel) to 1.2 tonne kilometres of gross mass movement under the proposed metric. This would be equivalent to (say), moving a large consignment of soft toys approximately 31 metres round the M25. Can we learn anything useful from this? Personally I hope not, although I am prepared to be convinced otherwise. The author, to be fair, is aware of these pitfalls, noting that 'There is always a
price to pay in simplifications'. And even for those who remain unconvinced of the value of unified measurement, there are some interesting issues raised in this section. For example, the author has calculated that 22% of all freight movement is for the transport sector's 'own use', particularly for the supply of fuels. By way of comparison, this is twice the level of activity generated by the supply of food to the entire human and animal population. For these and othe~ reasons, he is able to demonstrate that the transport intensity of the UK economy is steadily increasing, and argues that this process is being, or must be, reversed. This then is the policy challenge of the late 1 9 9 0 s - the pursuit of 'transport efficiency'. Later sections deal with the policy response analogies which may follow from the above, with particularly thought provoking sections on barriers to implementation, and on forecasts versus backcasting and scenario analysis. To me these were the most interesting parts of the book, but not alas those which were developed in the greatest detail. Some interesting points raised include the parallels between the nuclear power programme and the national roads programme - both grandiose supply-side measures which have provoked considerable opposition, and yet which have fallen foul of financial rather than environmental arguments. Other potential parallels naturally suggest themselves. For example, will rail privatization do for integrated transport planning what utility privatization has done for integrated energy resource management? And will road pricing present political difficulties similar to those which beset VAT on fuel? This is not to suggest (as the author himself does not) that where energy policy leads, transport policy must follow. He rightly points out that for urban areas at least, transport policy is arguably ahead of energy policy, in that the central objective is now clearly to live within capacity constraints. He also emphasizes that local environment and social impacts are a key determinant of transport policy development; and one which has been less to the fore for energy. Indeed, this difference may explain why a transport Green Paper now appears imminent, while energy policy remains fragmented.
Book reviews The conclusions of the book, when they come, are rather brief; but none the less it should provide an interesting and thought provoking read for energy policy analysts wanting to know more about transport, or vice versa. Even those who already know about both are likely to find something to their advantage here. On balance the book provides a useful framework for a field of analysis which has to date been underrepresented in the literature, and it is a promising start from a young author. Perhaps inevitably the policy analysis and conclusions presented do not take us far enough or into sufficient detail; but there is enough here to stimulate further work on a number of issues. 1 trust that the author and others will pursue these possibilities, and I await the sequel with interest.
Malcolm Fergusson Institute.for European Environmental Policy London, UK
Planning for Demand-side Management in the Electricity Sector Jyoti K Parikh, B Sudhakara Reddy and Rangan Banerjee
Tata McGraw-Hill. New Delhi, India 1994, 279pp Demand-side management (DSM) or consumer load management, as it might more clearly be called, is now gaining momentum throughout the world. Together with least cost planning (LCP) there is a growing body of literature, methodology, case studies and implementation appraisals which can be culled to provide a framework for any utility, electricity supply company, industrial and commercial complex and even individual residential consumer to assess the likely savings from careful consideration of the many options now available to reduce electricity bills. Naturally, any DSM must ultimately provide a payback or other saving incentive to be worthwhile, mainly to the individual, but also to the supply utility and the national economy. Normally the individual or company is the most likely beneficiary of DSM but if at the same time the utility and the country benefit too, then it must surely be a 'good thing'.
This book is really a case study on DSM by the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Bombay, for the state of Maharashtra where a number of high tension (HT) industries (industrial companies with supplies taken at 11 kV and above) accounting for 17% of electricity consumption in India, were surveyed in 1992-93 to determine the potential for energy (kWh) and demand (kW) savings which would be less expensive than installing new plant in the supply utility over the next 20 years. As a good example of DSM and LCP methodologies it is to be recommended, but as a guide to possible savings in other consumer sectors and countries, the results and recommendations should be treated with caution. This is not because the findings are wrong but because the survey shows yet again how difficult it is to transfer implementation strategies from one sector to another, particularly if they are for another country with a different lifestyle, GDP, growth rate etc. Having said that, many lessons could be learnt from delving into this book. In particular the choice of 12 DSM programmes ranges from compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) through variable speed drives and good housekeeping measures to power factor improvement and time of day tariffs. Out of a possible 6218 HT industrial consumers, 62 were selected to represent the range of industries in the state, including textile, paper, cement, pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals among others. All in the sample were individually interviewed and an extensive questionnaire was answered; the results were collated and verified to give as valid an indication as possible of where useful DSM investment could be made. From the recommendations, it is worth noting that electric motors for fans, pumps, compressors, machine tools etc account for 60-70% of consumption, so replacement by more efficient motors and/or variable speed drives was an obvious option. However, when considered on a least cost basis, the 'winners' were implementation of a time of day tariff, more power factor correction, and improvements to electric arc furnaces and scrap preparation procedures. Good housekeeping such as reduction of process losses, steam leaks etc was thought to need investment in training, monitoring and personnel and thus it came much further
down the list. In terms of energy saved, however, good housekeeping came second and cogeneration third out of ten saving measures, the latter provided by far the most saving in kilowatt hours compared to others. What is gained from this book? Out of the eight chapters, the most useful was that on the methodology of the study, in which the technique of analysis are outlined, the evaluation of the various programmes given and the preparation for the survey recounted. The possible savings and implications of each programme are explained in another chapter and the savings estimated over the period 1994 to 2012 are tabulated and commented upon. As the survey included aspects of awareness by the HT industries of the benefits of DSM (some were very ignorant) and also the barriers to implementation or even sheer inertia, this section provides a useful guide for others. Finally, among the recommendations, the thought that in India investment in DSM would require a discount rate of 25% for the customer compared to (only) 14% for a government agency highlights again the problems in translating the results of this 20 year survey where demand is growing by 7% per annum, to developed countries with only 1-2% growth. B J Colt Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine London, UK
Generation in the 1990s: Electricity Capacity and New Power Projects P Gray, M Aveline, M Brough and L Mason
Ox[ord Energy Research Associates, 1994, 151 pp, £14.95 If the preprivatization UK electricity supply industry was good at anything, it was producing large volumes of data about its power stations. While at the strategic level, such as nuclear costs, there could be some quibbles about the comprehensiveness of the coverage, Electricity Council Handbooks and CEGB Statistical Yearbooks generally left few analysts short on detailed information. However, in the post-privatization era, things have changed. There are now many companies involved in the
Energy Policy 1995 Volume23 Number 8 733
Transport in Transition: Lessons from the History of Energy Stephen Peake Earthscan, 1994, £12.95 Nobody who has worked in the fields of energy and transport policy can have failed to be struck by the similarities, and also the differences, between the two. As a consequence, those with a foot in both camps can often benefit from applying lessons from the former to the latter. In spite of this, there is little in the literature which attempts to narrate the history of policy development and analytical frameworks in the two areas in a coherent and comparative fashion, or to draw the relevant conclusions. As such, Transport in Transition: Lessons from the History o f Energy is both welcome and timely, distilling as it does the author's wide-ranging doctoral thesis into a slim and readable volume. The early chapters outline developments in energy policy surrounding the
732
Energo,Policy 1995 Volume23 Number 8
oil crises of the 1970s, and the potentially analogous but rather later developments in transport policy. The latter culminated in the National Road Traffic Forecasts of 1989, which are now regarded as a watershed in UK transport policy, in this descriptive section parallel themes are mapped o u t - notably the progression from 'predict and provide' to a more sophisticated policy framework. This progression, it is argued, involved a complex set of changes in both c a s e s including changes of conceptualization, new approaches to policy and developments in forecasting methodology. Subsequent chapters pursue the relevant analogues in greater detail. Chapter 5 is largely devoted to measurements, and proposes a unifying metric for transport activity. This consists of gross mass movements and net mass movements, which would be broadly analogous to primary and delivered energy respectively. In particular this would give a means to analyse freight and passenger movements together, much as mtoe are used for primary fuels. in support of this proposal, the author discusses the example of grocery distribution, where a small number of HGV movements to stock a supermarket have been shown to engender a far greater number of car trips to take those goods home. Certainly this is an area where a common measure could be a useful tool to consider the total impact of the system, and to analyse the effects of alternative shopping patterns. But it is useful precisely because the supermarket checkout is at the interface between freight distribution and personal travel, and because the analysis focuses on one specific end use sector. In the broader transport picture, however, it is more open to question whether common units unify, or merely obscure, the underlying processes at work. For example, the reviewer's cycle trip to the office equates (unflatteringly, I feel) to 1.2 tonne kilometres of gross mass movement under the proposed metric. This would be equivalent to (say), moving a large consignment of soft toys approximately 31 metres round the M25. Can we learn anything useful from this? Personally I hope not, although I am prepared to be convinced otherwise. The author, to be fair, is aware of these pitfalls, noting that 'There is always a
price to pay in simplifications'. And even for those who remain unconvinced of the value of unified measurement, there are some interesting issues raised in this section. For example, the author has calculated that 22% of all freight movement is for the transport sector's 'own use', particularly for the supply of fuels. By way of comparison, this is twice the level of activity generated by the supply of food to the entire human and animal population. For these and othe~ reasons, he is able to demonstrate that the transport intensity of the UK economy is steadily increasing, and argues that this process is being, or must be, reversed. This then is the policy challenge of the late 1 9 9 0 s - the pursuit of 'transport efficiency'. Later sections deal with the policy response analogies which may follow from the above, with particularly thought provoking sections on barriers to implementation, and on forecasts versus backcasting and scenario analysis. To me these were the most interesting parts of the book, but not alas those which were developed in the greatest detail. Some interesting points raised include the parallels between the nuclear power programme and the national roads programme - both grandiose supply-side measures which have provoked considerable opposition, and yet which have fallen foul of financial rather than environmental arguments. Other potential parallels naturally suggest themselves. For example, will rail privatization do for integrated transport planning what utility privatization has done for integrated energy resource management? And will road pricing present political difficulties similar to those which beset VAT on fuel? This is not to suggest (as the author himself does not) that where energy policy leads, transport policy must follow. He rightly points out that for urban areas at least, transport policy is arguably ahead of energy policy, in that the central objective is now clearly to live within capacity constraints. He also emphasizes that local environment and social impacts are a key determinant of transport policy development; and one which has been less to the fore for energy. Indeed, this difference may explain why a transport Green Paper now appears imminent, while energy policy remains fragmented.
Book reviews The conclusions of the book, when they come, are rather brief; but none the less it should provide an interesting and thought provoking read for energy policy analysts wanting to know more about transport, or vice versa. Even those who already know about both are likely to find something to their advantage here. On balance the book provides a useful framework for a field of analysis which has to date been underrepresented in the literature, and it is a promising start from a young author. Perhaps inevitably the policy analysis and conclusions presented do not take us far enough or into sufficient detail; but there is enough here to stimulate further work on a number of issues. 1 trust that the author and others will pursue these possibilities, and I await the sequel with interest.
Malcolm Fergusson Institute.for European Environmental Policy London, UK
Planning for Demand-side Management in the Electricity Sector Jyoti K Parikh, B Sudhakara Reddy and Rangan Banerjee
Tata McGraw-Hill. New Delhi, India 1994, 279pp Demand-side management (DSM) or consumer load management, as it might more clearly be called, is now gaining momentum throughout the world. Together with least cost planning (LCP) there is a growing body of literature, methodology, case studies and implementation appraisals which can be culled to provide a framework for any utility, electricity supply company, industrial and commercial complex and even individual residential consumer to assess the likely savings from careful consideration of the many options now available to reduce electricity bills. Naturally, any DSM must ultimately provide a payback or other saving incentive to be worthwhile, mainly to the individual, but also to the supply utility and the national economy. Normally the individual or company is the most likely beneficiary of DSM but if at the same time the utility and the country benefit too, then it must surely be a 'good thing'.
This book is really a case study on DSM by the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Bombay, for the state of Maharashtra where a number of high tension (HT) industries (industrial companies with supplies taken at 11 kV and above) accounting for 17% of electricity consumption in India, were surveyed in 1992-93 to determine the potential for energy (kWh) and demand (kW) savings which would be less expensive than installing new plant in the supply utility over the next 20 years. As a good example of DSM and LCP methodologies it is to be recommended, but as a guide to possible savings in other consumer sectors and countries, the results and recommendations should be treated with caution. This is not because the findings are wrong but because the survey shows yet again how difficult it is to transfer implementation strategies from one sector to another, particularly if they are for another country with a different lifestyle, GDP, growth rate etc. Having said that, many lessons could be learnt from delving into this book. In particular the choice of 12 DSM programmes ranges from compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) through variable speed drives and good housekeeping measures to power factor improvement and time of day tariffs. Out of a possible 6218 HT industrial consumers, 62 were selected to represent the range of industries in the state, including textile, paper, cement, pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals among others. All in the sample were individually interviewed and an extensive questionnaire was answered; the results were collated and verified to give as valid an indication as possible of where useful DSM investment could be made. From the recommendations, it is worth noting that electric motors for fans, pumps, compressors, machine tools etc account for 60-70% of consumption, so replacement by more efficient motors and/or variable speed drives was an obvious option. However, when considered on a least cost basis, the 'winners' were implementation of a time of day tariff, more power factor correction, and improvements to electric arc furnaces and scrap preparation procedures. Good housekeeping such as reduction of process losses, steam leaks etc was thought to need investment in training, monitoring and personnel and thus it came much further
down the list. In terms of energy saved, however, good housekeeping came second and cogeneration third out of ten saving measures, the latter provided by far the most saving in kilowatt hours compared to others. What is gained from this book? Out of the eight chapters, the most useful was that on the methodology of the study, in which the technique of analysis are outlined, the evaluation of the various programmes given and the preparation for the survey recounted. The possible savings and implications of each programme are explained in another chapter and the savings estimated over the period 1994 to 2012 are tabulated and commented upon. As the survey included aspects of awareness by the HT industries of the benefits of DSM (some were very ignorant) and also the barriers to implementation or even sheer inertia, this section provides a useful guide for others. Finally, among the recommendations, the thought that in India investment in DSM would require a discount rate of 25% for the customer compared to (only) 14% for a government agency highlights again the problems in translating the results of this 20 year survey where demand is growing by 7% per annum, to developed countries with only 1-2% growth. B J Colt Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine London, UK
Generation in the 1990s: Electricity Capacity and New Power Projects P Gray, M Aveline, M Brough and L Mason
Ox[ord Energy Research Associates, 1994, 151 pp, £14.95 If the preprivatization UK electricity supply industry was good at anything, it was producing large volumes of data about its power stations. While at the strategic level, such as nuclear costs, there could be some quibbles about the comprehensiveness of the coverage, Electricity Council Handbooks and CEGB Statistical Yearbooks generally left few analysts short on detailed information. However, in the post-privatization era, things have changed. There are now many companies involved in the
Energy Policy 1995 Volume23 Number 8 733