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Recent Doctoral Dissertations
expected values from 1970 to 1990, and testing it for statistical significance. The dissertation was carried out in three stages. First, it developed the methodology for the municipal-level systemic evaluation. For this, causal maps reflecting the complex interaction of elements which comprise: population, total employment, average income, housing, and land use subsystems were developed. Flow diagrams reflecting the relationships of the causal model subsystems were created. Mathematical and functional relationships based on these diagrams were used to develop the entire system model for Fajardo; using existing data, the model is validated and calibrated. Then, the model is utilized to project changes in all subsystems for the 1990-2010 period. During projection, changes in all of the economic variables are analyzed in terms of their spatial pattern trends.
Transportation and land use guidelines for developing urban areas. Potgieter, Louis Jacobus, Ph.D. University of Pretoria (South Africa), Co-supervisors: H.S. Joubert; MS. Badenhorst.
1994.
Urbanization is taking place at a rapid rate in South Africa, especially in the developing areas. The majority of the urban population is poor and is dependent on walking and public transport as modes of movement. The existing urban land use structure generates enormous and often unnecessary amounts of movement. Existing planning procedures fail to integrate land use and transportation planning and to adequately involve the public. No evaluation methodology exists which can be used to determine the quality of the public transportation system. The objective of this study is to investigate urban systems which would satisfy normal requirements of land use planning and at the same time improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the urban transportation system in developing communities. A secondary aim is to develop methodologies for the evaluation of planning layout patterns, planning legislation and existing public transportation systems. An urban layout pattern is proposed which is used for the preparation of urban structure plans. The urban layout pattern, based on node development, enhances public transport in developing areas. A planning methodology was developed for the evaluation of alternative urban layout patterns for a specific area from the transportation point of view. A sketch planning model, called QPLAN, was found to be a useful tool in evaluating these alternative urban layout patterns. An evaluation methodology was developed in order to determine the quality of the public transportation system. The evaluation methodology has been applied in practice and various issues and problems could be identified. A planning procedure, which combines multi-disciplinary planning and public involvement, is proposed for the preparation of the urban structure plan. The existing planning legislation was analyzed in terms of the requirements of the proposed planning procedure. The
existing planning legislation needs to be altered achieve an integrated planning process.
to
Transportation and regional development. Huang, Chia-Hsing, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania, 1994. 195 pp. Supervisor: W. Bruce Allen. Order Number DA94-27550 This dissertation integrates an input-output model and a transportation network model to evaluate the impact of transportation on the urban economy. The transportation network of the Philadelphia primary metropolitan statistical area is used for the empirical study. The dissertation sheds new light on the study of urban goods movement within the context of a realistic transportation network. A model that describes both the economy and the transport system is created. Regional demand and supply are estimated by the input-output models. A Philadelphia regional input-output model is created based on regional purchase coefficients, regional export coefficients, and national input-output technical coefficients. A gravity model is used to simulate the passenger and commodity flows through the transportation network to calculate the transportation cost. The transportation cost changes due to transportation improvement will affect the commodity flow patterns and the regional economy. An interregional input-output model is used to determine the industrial and regional impacts of a change in transportation prices. This dissertation shows that a specific transportation investment can have significant impacts on a metropolitan area where a highly developed transportation network is already in place.
TRANSPORTATION
FINANCE
Design of a system for analysis and forecast of highway revenues. Varma, Amiy, Ph.D. Purdue University, 1993. 281 pp. Major Professor: C. Sinha.
Kumares
Order Number DA94-20912 Increased emphasis is being placed on improved financial control and planning within state transportation agencies due to continuing shifts in escalation of construction, revenue sources, maintenance and operating costs, instability of revenue bases, and mandates of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991. This has underscored the importance of analysis, estimation, and forecast of highway revenues. The present research focused on the problems associated with highway revenue analysis, highway financing mechanisms, and highway revenue forecasting. A detailed review of highway revenues was conducted and the problems of