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Trends and seasonal variation of tourist demand in Spain: The role of rural tourism
Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 123–128
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Trends and seasonal variation of tourist demand in Spain: The role of rural tourism Vanesa F. Guzman-Parra a,⁎, Cristina Quintana-García a, Carlos A. Benavides-Velasco b, Jose Roberto Vila-Oblitas a a b
Dpto. Economía y Administración de Empresas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Campus El Ejido, s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain Dpto. Economía y Administración de Empresas, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Campus El Ejido, s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 11 January 2013 Received in revised form 21 July 2015 Accepted 25 July 2015 Available online xxxx JEL classification: L83
a b s t r a c t Demand for tourist services is characterised by strong seasonal variations, despite various policies and commercial strategies employed by tourist companies. Using data collected over a 14-year period starting in 2001, timeseries analyses were conducted to identify the trend and the presence of seasonal variations. Results show that rural tourism had a relatively stable pattern and a sustained growth rate during the period of study, which suggests that it is advisable to promote rural tourism as one of the formulas for fostering stable regional development. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Tourism Seasonality Hotels Tourist apartments Campsites Rural tourism
1. Introduction Rural tourism has witnessed constant growth in Spain during the last decade. The aim of this study is to identify the current trends peculiar to the Spanish tourism demand. This paper analyses the role that rural tourism can play in regional development and the domestic economy. We carried out a study of the trend in tourist demand in Spain for the period 2001–2015, with a specific focus on existing seasonal variations. Tourism in Spain is highly seasonal. This poses difficulties for the directors of tourist service enterprises and particularly affects the management of human resources, which has an impact on the quality of service and the company image. At the same time, the fall in profits due to the inability to optimise the use of resources and capabilities during the less active periods, has a negative impact on regional economic development. Despite the fact that seasonal variation is one of the most salient features of the tourist industry, it is still understudied (Higham & Hinch, 2002). Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that there is a lack of consensus on the exact definition of seasonality with reference to tourism. ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (V.F. Guzman-Parra), [email protected] (C. Quintana-García), [email protected] (C.A. Benavides-Velasco), [email protected] (J.R. Vila-Oblitas).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2015.07.014 2211-9736/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Moore (1989) defines seasonal variation in demand as the displacements produced in a period of time, during a particular time of year, which occur in a similar fashion every year. Hylleberg (1992) exposes that seasonality is the systematic intrayear movement caused by changes in the weather, the calendar, and timing of decisions, directly or indirectly through the production and consumption decisions made by the agents of the economy. López Bonilla & López Bonilla (2005), Allcock (1994) and Butler (1994) understand tourist seasonal variation as the temporary imbalance caused mainly by the higher incidence of tourist activity in certain periods of the year and in which factors of both supply and demand are involved. García & Grande Esteban (2005) point out that knowledge of tourist demand is essential for the appropriate design and adaptation of rural tourist products to market demand; this knowledge also facilitates the design of medium and long term strategies which will enable us to find new ways of developing rural areas. Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that relatively few authors have closely examined ways of quantifying and comparing empirical seasonality patterns. The paper is structured as follows: firstly, we describe the variables studied which make up the different types of accommodation, with special reference to rural tourism; then, we describe the methodology and the results of the seasonal variation analysis of tourist demand; finally we discuss the results and the conclusions of the research study.
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2. Types of tourist accommodation: special reference to rural tourism Tourist accommodation can be classified into four main types: hotels, campsites, tourist apartments and rural accommodation. These are defined as follows by the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE, 2015): 1. Hotels: this category includes all hotels registered as such in the corresponding registers of the Tourist Boards of each Autonomous Region. These are establishments which offer collective accommodation services for a charge, with or without other complementary services (hotel, aparthotels, motels, hostels, guest houses, etc.). 2. Tourist campsites, refer to plots of land with limited boundaries, equipped with the necessary services. They offer, on a regular basis for a stipulated rate, outdoor accommodation for a limited time for holiday or tourist purposes, with clients staying in mobile homes, caravans, tents or other similar mobile elements. 3. Tourist apartments: rented accommodation which is let out on a regular basis for temporary board and lodging, including apartments, chalets, villas and bungalows. 4. Rural accommodation: houses and cottages providing tourist accommodation for a charge, with or without complementary services and registered in the corresponding “Registro de Alojamientos Turisticos of each Autonomous Region”. According to the Rural Tourism Planning Manual (Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1994), rural tourism depends on the natural, geographic and ethnological features of each country and this makes it difficult to achieve a consensus regarding the conceptual boundaries. There is no academic or legal consensus regarding the concept of rural tourism, but it can be broadly defined as tourism which takes place in rural areas (Ghaderi & Henderson, 2012). This definition is the same as that provided by the European Community (Farmaki, 2012). There is not a consistent definition of rural tourism in the case of Spain (Barke, 2004). Table 1 shows a sample of the many existing definitions. According to the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE, 2015), rural accommodation refers generally to those establishments offering tourist accommodation for a fee, with or without additional services and which are registered in the corresponding “Registro de Alojamientos Turísticos of each Autonomous Region”. The rural establishments studied have the following characteristics: a) they are situated in a rural environment, b) they are buildings with an architecture typical of the area or are in buildings which maintain active agricultural operations (agrotourism), and.
c) they offer a number of vacancies and rooms for the limited lodging of guests, and combine certain infrastructure and basic provision requirements. There are many types of rural tourism activities present in different localities in Spain (Barke, 2004). An increasing number of studies have begun to highlight the value of quietness in natural environments (Klijn, Buij, Dijkstra, Luttik, & Veeneklaas, 2000; Pan & Ryan, 2007; Votsi, Mazaris, Kallimanis, & Pantis, 2014). Tourism has long been considered an effective catalyst of rural socio-economic development and regeneration. Throughout Europe, in particular, tourism has been widely promoted and relied upon as a means of addressing the social and economic challenges facing peripheral rural areas, primarily those associated with the decline of traditional agrarian industries (Cavaco, 1995; Hoggart, Buller, & Black, 1995; Opperman, 1996; Williams & Shaw, 1998; Sharpley, 2002; Panyik, Costa, & Rátz, 2011; Komppula, 2014). 3. Methodology In this paper we analyse the seasonal variations affecting tourism in Spain during the period from January 2001 to March 2015. We use data from the survey of hotel, apartment, campsite occupancy and rural tourism accommodation carried out continuously by the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE). The purpose of the survey is to study the behaviour of a series of variables, which show the basic characteristics (supply and demand) of the sector. One of the main aspects examined was the number of travellers, a variable which enables us to show the trend in demand. The INE (2015) defines the figure of “traveller” as the number of people who stay one or more consecutive nights in the same place. Crouch (1994) argues that the number of tourists is generally the basic unit used for measuring tourist demand. In our study, among other variables, we examine the number of travellers staying in each type of accommodation, but we could also calculate the seasonal variation in demand in relation to other more specific variables, such as those referring to overnight stays, points of departure, average stay, reasons for travelling or average expenditure of the tourists. Taking into account the high level of seasonal variation existing in the tourist sector (Kulendran & Wong, 2005), in order to make a correct analysis of the series, it is necessary to separate these variations. The procedure, which allows us to isolate the seasonal component, is based on the breakdown via moving average. In our case, the series analysed have a periodicity of 12, since we have all the monthly data. In this way the seasonal component is a factor by which we multiply (or add if the scheme is additive) the seasonal adjusted series to give
Table 1 Examples of definitions of Rural Tourism in Spain. Bardón Fernández (1990) Blanco Portillo and Benayas del Alamo (1994) Galiano (1991) Gannon (1994) Gilbert (1992) European Communities Commission(1990) Crosby and Moreda (1996) Fuentes García (1995)
Mediano and Vicente (2002) Secretaría General de Turismo (1992) Traverso Cortés (1996) Valdés Peláez (2004)
Accommodation, installations, leisure facilities, natural and architectural resources present in predominantly agricultural areas. Recreational and tourist activities carried out in natural rural areas including all types of adventure and sports tourism. Rural tourism and all sports, cultural and hunting activities carried out in the rural environment. The range of activities and amenities provided by farmers and rural people to attract tourists to their areas in order to generate extra income for their businesses. Journey or overnight stay in a rural agricultural or natural area. Tourist activities in a rural environment. A tourist activity carried out in a rural area, consisting of integrated leisure activities, for those whose aim is contact with the local environment, and which is interrelated with the local society. A type of tourism which takes place in non urban areas and which has a completely different development model to mass coastal tourism. Tourist activity which takes place in rural areas, consisting of integrated leisure activities, for those whose objective is contact with the local environment, i.e. nature, gastronomy, traditional architecture, folklore and popular traditions, and which is interrelated with the local society. Rural tourism refers to that which affects all type of tourism in the rural environment. Recreational activities, accommodation and related services located in the rural environment, aimed mainly at city dwellers who are seeking holidays which bring them into contact with nature and the local people. Sustainable tourist activity in a rural environment. Tourist activity taking place in the rural environment, whose main objective is the search for tourist attractions associated with rest, the countryside, traditional culture and escape from the crowds.
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rise to the original series. In our model, the observations without seasonal variation have a seasonal component of 1. Several authors refer to the behaviour and treatment of seasonal series (Allcock, 1994; Pérez López, 2001). The Seasonal Decomposition procedure decomposes a seasonal series into a seasonal component, a combined trend and cycle component, and an “error” component (Makridakis, Wheelwright, & McGee, 1983). The seasonal series (Yt) of the number of travellers, with t = 1,…,T, can be expressed as (Shiskin, Young, & Musgrave, 1967): Yt ¼ TCt ∗St∗It ; t ¼ 1; …; n where: – Tendency or Tt: the regular movement in the long term, it represents the long term trend of the series. – Cyclical factor or Ct: the oscillatory movement. They are fluctuations in the medium term in the trend. The duration (width or period) of the cycles show certain regularity (this width is measured from one peak to the next peak, or from one valley to the next valley). In practise, it is difficult to separate Tt from Ct. Hence, both components are usually included in just one, known as trend-cycle component TCt, which reflects the changes in level (height of sequence graph) throughout the development of the series. – Seasonal variation or seasonal component St: are oscillations of the series within the same year (unlike the cyclical factor, which are short term oscillations) of the trend that repeats itself in a similar way over successive years. The period is equal to or less than a year. The reasons for seasonal variation are of a physical- natural kind (weather, biological cycles, etc.) and of an institutional kind (school holidays, festivals, opening hours). – Irregular movement or It: variations of the series not included in the above. They are of a residual nature. They can be broken down into two parts: random component, which includes minor accidental effects, and erratic component, which is the consequence of events which are not always foreseeable but which can be identified afterwards (catastrophes, political upheaval, strikes, etc.). In the case of the seasonal series of the number of travellers, the model can be applied since the variables should not contain lost incrusted data and there is a component of periodic date. After performing the seasonal decomposition analysis, we obtained four series which together with the error component are: – Seasonally adjusted series (SAS). The values obtained after eliminating the seasonal variation of a series. – Smoothed trend-cycle components (STC). These values show the cyclical trend and behaviour of the series. – Seasonal factor. Seasonal adjustment factor (SAF). These values indicate the effect of each period on the level of the series.
Fig. 1. Evolution of travellers according to type of accommodation. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
issues in time series analysis (González & Moral, 1996). Therefore, the series, after eliminating seasonal variation (SAS) confirms the break in the upward trend in the last few years. In order to better appreciate the trend in the three types of accommodation with a lower number of travellers, Fig. 3 shows only these three series. Furthermore, Fig. 3 shows that the seasonal variation factor differs between different types of establishment. The seasonal variation factor related to rural tourism is the one that shows less pronounced seasonal behaviour compared to hotel accommodation, which has a very marked seasonal component. The diagnosis of the seasonal factor, summarised in Table 2, illustrates that when the value is greater than 1 in a specific period, the variable value will be higher than the average for this period, while, when it is lower than 1, the opposite occurs. Average monthly seasonal factors are estimated using the moving average approach. Results show that during the months of low season, the seasonal variation component has lower values (see January, February, November and December). While in July, August and September, this component has higher values. The consequences of this seasonal variation demand a strategic response in supply to overcome their adverse effects. Hence, tourist companies must adopt different measures to face the increase in demand, for example, in the number of staff hired, which may have negative implications derived from variations in training levels of employees or productivity levels. Below, we offer a description of the state of supply with variables that, according to the INE (2015), are defined as follows: – Number of establishments: it refers to the number of open establishments estimated in accordance with the corresponding Tourist Office Register of each Autonomous Community, an establishment open for the season is that establishment in which the reference month is included within its opening period.
4. Results Fig. 1 shows the first approximation before the seasonal breakdown. It presents the evolution in the number of travellers according to the type of accommodation. We are going to analyse the series' trends in order to clearly detect whether this is a sustained decline and the level of seasonal variation in the four variables under analysis. Fig. 2 shows the cycle of trends in which we no longer see the marked peaks (a consequence of the seasonal variation) which enables us to easily note the trend. In the four types of accommodation studied, but particularly in the hotel sector, we can identify a variation in the growing trend since 2007. This contrasts with the high rise in the hotel sector between the years 2003 and 2006. The estimation of trends, seasonalities, and underlying growth yield results that are important
Fig. 2. Series' trend. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
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Fig. 3. Seasonally adjusted series. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
– Personnel employed: all the paid and unpaid people who contribute through their work to the production of goods and services in the establishment during the month covering the period of reference of the survey, although they might work off premises. – Estimated places: the number of places estimated by the survey of establishments open in season. The number of places is equivalent to the number of permanent beds in the establishment. It does not include, therefore, extra beds. Double beds count as two places. Fig. 4 shows the evolution in places offered in each type of establishment. We can observe the growing trend in the case of hotel establishments and rural tourism accommodation. Another aspect identified in the graph is the high seasonal variation in the first three types of accommodation shown. We can observe the growth in the variables studied related, firstly, to the supply of hotels and secondly to rural tourism establishments. In addition, the average number of estimated vacancies open in each year are shown in Table 3. We can note the rise in the average number of vacancies offered, especially in the case of rural tourism. In the monthly series, we observe the corresponding seasonal variation existing in the case of personnel employed, with a significantly higher number of staff hired in the high season. Table 4 shows the annual average, which provides evidence of the rise in personnel employed in the case of rural accommodation. Fig. 5 clearly shows a very relevant fact: the high rise in the number of open rural tourism accommodation establishments, which is almost the same as the number of hotel establishments in recent years.
Fig. 4. The number of open estimated bed-places in each type of accommodation. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
5. Discussion and conclusions The data analysis illustrates the existence of a generally growing trend and of a very pronounced seasonal pattern: the maximum annual value is systematically observed in the month of August followed by the variable values in July and September. At the same time, in the months of January, February, November and December we systematically see the lowest minimum values. Given that high seasonal variation makes it difficult to extrapolate conclusions to correctly analyse the trend in demand for tourist services in Spain (in the last few years) we have eliminated the seasonal variation from the series and, as a result, we have been able to observe the stagnation in the growing number of travellers. However, there has been no fall in the number of places and there has been a marked seasonal variation parallel to that of demand, except in the case of rural accommodation which maintains a more constant supply of places throughout the year. In addition, this study reflects the relative greater level of supply and demand existing in hotel establishments as opposed to rural accommodation, campsites and tourist apartments. Specifically, it is worth noting the increase in the last few years in the number of rural tourist places offered and the demand for this type of accommodation. The results show the importance of promoting rural tourism since it experiences less seasonal oscillation and can support stable tourist demand, and therefore sustained economic development.
Table 3 Average number of estimated vacancies according to type of accommodation.
Table 2 Seasonal adjustment factor.
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
Period
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
58 69 86 100.7 113.9 120.6 133.5 146.6 124.3 106.9 72.8 66.3
17.7 21.3 43.6 84.6 85.7 133.1 276.0 346.7 103.5 44 22.7 21
63.7 68.8 79.1 86 93.5 118.2 154.9 178.2 123 95.6 67.7 71.3
46.1 64.1 91.2 111.5 94.9 99 129.9 170 102.8 109.1 79.4 104.0
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
1,055,863.7 1,080,290.4 1,122,052.4 1,175,513.6 1,212,597.8 1,263,779.4 1,297,648.8 1,340,438.8 1,363,934.3 1,398,900.4 1,427,699.7 1,427,699.7 1,432,582.1 1,434,520.2 1,437,330.2
466,774.5 485,867.0 475,361.3 487,823.8 490,176.4 482,163.2 480,066.2 486,298.0 483,630.5 485,771.6 479,538.0 479,538 487,702.2 494,759.7 488,048.9
425,649.8 429,045.9 432,564.3 446,452.9 438,064.6 445,710.3 440,810.6 441,656.3 443,110.0 434,971.3 439,695.3 439,695.3 444,807.3 453,421.5 450,072.8
42,925.4 51,111.3 59,884.3 71,488.3 83,916.2 95,905.8 103,312.9 114,766.3 126,222.3 130,882.0 137,760.8 137,760.8 142,468.4 139,827.9 141,478.2
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
V.F. Guzman-Parra et al. / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 123–128 Table 4 Annual average of personnel employed according to type of accommodation.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
152,044 153,576 162,223 168,828 179,137 192,049 198,524 198,613 200,438 188,941 192,509 186,785 182,628 184,230
5014 5221 5129 5290 5405 5452 5583 5574 6667 5439 5493 5558 5604 5638
26,829 27,239 26,447 26,061 25,226 27,003 26,997 26,719 27,148 24,494 22,822 22,380 22,781 24,061
8101 9762 10,497 13,662 16,125 17,962 19,239 19,807 21,438 21,722 21,989 21,623 21,411 21,794
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that there is a lack of studies that analyse when tourism seasonality occurs, how tourism seasons can be differentiated or how seasonality can be compared between different variables such as regions or years. A substantial change of the seasonal pattern of demand, particularly in this type of rural destination is a difficult task considering uncontrollable determinants of the phenomenon, such as climate (Allcock, 1994). Seasonality in tourism literature is usually considered a problem, causing negative economic, socio-cultural and environmental impacts on a destination (Butler, 1994; Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005). Nevertheless, seasonality does not always have a negative impact on the industry and the destination as the off-peak season has benefits such as time for environmental reclamation and resident recovery (Butler, 1994). Several authors have shown that the off-peak season provides a time to recover (Higham & Hinch, 2002; Hartmann, 1986; Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005). Crosby (1993) highlights the importance of sustainable tourist development and its permanence, which require integrated action in order to make the most of the resources, which involve the local population and the conservation and enhancement of the environment. Several authors, such as Andres Sarasa (2000) and Martínez Roget (2004) point out the opportunities which rural tourism can provide for the development of rural areas as a driving force. In this framework, we were able to detect that there has been spectacular growth in recent years in rural accommodation. Rural tourism is a determining factor in rural development and a driving force in some cases for the development of a region (Haven-Tang & Jones, 2012; Baležentis, Kriščiukaitienė, Baležentis, & Garland, 2012). This cross-sectional characteristic contributes essentially to the development of rural areas since it has a major revitalising effect on the rural environment.
Fig. 5. Evolution of estimated open establishments in Spain. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
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Cristina Quintana-García is Associate Professor of Management in the Faculty of Economics and Business Science at the University of Malaga (Spain). She is Director of Santander Center for Corporate Social Responsibility in the mentioned University, and previously she was Director for Quality and Strategic Development at such University (2008–2011). Her research interests are technology management, strategic alliances and other factors that help small and medium firms to perform their innovation processes, and more recently, family firms and the tourism sector.
Carlos A. Benavides-Velasco is Associate Professor of Management in the Technical Higher School of Industrial Engineering at the University of Malaga (Spain), and Director of the Strategic Plan and Social Responsibility at the mentioned University. His research interests include quality management (EFQM Model, ISO-9000, QFD, etc.), management of R&D activities, family firms and the tourism sector.
Jose Roberto Vila Oblitas is Assistant Professor of Marketing in the Faculty of Economics and Business Science at the University of Malaga (Spain). His research interests include Film Industry, Family firms Innovation in teaching methodology, Tourism and Rural tourism.
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Tourism Management Perspectives journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tmp
Trends and seasonal variation of tourist demand in Spain: The role of rural tourism Vanesa F. Guzman-Parra a,⁎, Cristina Quintana-García a, Carlos A. Benavides-Velasco b, Jose Roberto Vila-Oblitas a a b
Dpto. Economía y Administración de Empresas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Campus El Ejido, s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain Dpto. Economía y Administración de Empresas, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Campus El Ejido, s/n, 29071 Málaga, Spain
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 11 January 2013 Received in revised form 21 July 2015 Accepted 25 July 2015 Available online xxxx JEL classification: L83
a b s t r a c t Demand for tourist services is characterised by strong seasonal variations, despite various policies and commercial strategies employed by tourist companies. Using data collected over a 14-year period starting in 2001, timeseries analyses were conducted to identify the trend and the presence of seasonal variations. Results show that rural tourism had a relatively stable pattern and a sustained growth rate during the period of study, which suggests that it is advisable to promote rural tourism as one of the formulas for fostering stable regional development. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Tourism Seasonality Hotels Tourist apartments Campsites Rural tourism
1. Introduction Rural tourism has witnessed constant growth in Spain during the last decade. The aim of this study is to identify the current trends peculiar to the Spanish tourism demand. This paper analyses the role that rural tourism can play in regional development and the domestic economy. We carried out a study of the trend in tourist demand in Spain for the period 2001–2015, with a specific focus on existing seasonal variations. Tourism in Spain is highly seasonal. This poses difficulties for the directors of tourist service enterprises and particularly affects the management of human resources, which has an impact on the quality of service and the company image. At the same time, the fall in profits due to the inability to optimise the use of resources and capabilities during the less active periods, has a negative impact on regional economic development. Despite the fact that seasonal variation is one of the most salient features of the tourist industry, it is still understudied (Higham & Hinch, 2002). Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that there is a lack of consensus on the exact definition of seasonality with reference to tourism. ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (V.F. Guzman-Parra), [email protected] (C. Quintana-García), [email protected] (C.A. Benavides-Velasco), [email protected] (J.R. Vila-Oblitas).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2015.07.014 2211-9736/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Moore (1989) defines seasonal variation in demand as the displacements produced in a period of time, during a particular time of year, which occur in a similar fashion every year. Hylleberg (1992) exposes that seasonality is the systematic intrayear movement caused by changes in the weather, the calendar, and timing of decisions, directly or indirectly through the production and consumption decisions made by the agents of the economy. López Bonilla & López Bonilla (2005), Allcock (1994) and Butler (1994) understand tourist seasonal variation as the temporary imbalance caused mainly by the higher incidence of tourist activity in certain periods of the year and in which factors of both supply and demand are involved. García & Grande Esteban (2005) point out that knowledge of tourist demand is essential for the appropriate design and adaptation of rural tourist products to market demand; this knowledge also facilitates the design of medium and long term strategies which will enable us to find new ways of developing rural areas. Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that relatively few authors have closely examined ways of quantifying and comparing empirical seasonality patterns. The paper is structured as follows: firstly, we describe the variables studied which make up the different types of accommodation, with special reference to rural tourism; then, we describe the methodology and the results of the seasonal variation analysis of tourist demand; finally we discuss the results and the conclusions of the research study.
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2. Types of tourist accommodation: special reference to rural tourism Tourist accommodation can be classified into four main types: hotels, campsites, tourist apartments and rural accommodation. These are defined as follows by the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE, 2015): 1. Hotels: this category includes all hotels registered as such in the corresponding registers of the Tourist Boards of each Autonomous Region. These are establishments which offer collective accommodation services for a charge, with or without other complementary services (hotel, aparthotels, motels, hostels, guest houses, etc.). 2. Tourist campsites, refer to plots of land with limited boundaries, equipped with the necessary services. They offer, on a regular basis for a stipulated rate, outdoor accommodation for a limited time for holiday or tourist purposes, with clients staying in mobile homes, caravans, tents or other similar mobile elements. 3. Tourist apartments: rented accommodation which is let out on a regular basis for temporary board and lodging, including apartments, chalets, villas and bungalows. 4. Rural accommodation: houses and cottages providing tourist accommodation for a charge, with or without complementary services and registered in the corresponding “Registro de Alojamientos Turisticos of each Autonomous Region”. According to the Rural Tourism Planning Manual (Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1994), rural tourism depends on the natural, geographic and ethnological features of each country and this makes it difficult to achieve a consensus regarding the conceptual boundaries. There is no academic or legal consensus regarding the concept of rural tourism, but it can be broadly defined as tourism which takes place in rural areas (Ghaderi & Henderson, 2012). This definition is the same as that provided by the European Community (Farmaki, 2012). There is not a consistent definition of rural tourism in the case of Spain (Barke, 2004). Table 1 shows a sample of the many existing definitions. According to the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE, 2015), rural accommodation refers generally to those establishments offering tourist accommodation for a fee, with or without additional services and which are registered in the corresponding “Registro de Alojamientos Turísticos of each Autonomous Region”. The rural establishments studied have the following characteristics: a) they are situated in a rural environment, b) they are buildings with an architecture typical of the area or are in buildings which maintain active agricultural operations (agrotourism), and.
c) they offer a number of vacancies and rooms for the limited lodging of guests, and combine certain infrastructure and basic provision requirements. There are many types of rural tourism activities present in different localities in Spain (Barke, 2004). An increasing number of studies have begun to highlight the value of quietness in natural environments (Klijn, Buij, Dijkstra, Luttik, & Veeneklaas, 2000; Pan & Ryan, 2007; Votsi, Mazaris, Kallimanis, & Pantis, 2014). Tourism has long been considered an effective catalyst of rural socio-economic development and regeneration. Throughout Europe, in particular, tourism has been widely promoted and relied upon as a means of addressing the social and economic challenges facing peripheral rural areas, primarily those associated with the decline of traditional agrarian industries (Cavaco, 1995; Hoggart, Buller, & Black, 1995; Opperman, 1996; Williams & Shaw, 1998; Sharpley, 2002; Panyik, Costa, & Rátz, 2011; Komppula, 2014). 3. Methodology In this paper we analyse the seasonal variations affecting tourism in Spain during the period from January 2001 to March 2015. We use data from the survey of hotel, apartment, campsite occupancy and rural tourism accommodation carried out continuously by the “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE). The purpose of the survey is to study the behaviour of a series of variables, which show the basic characteristics (supply and demand) of the sector. One of the main aspects examined was the number of travellers, a variable which enables us to show the trend in demand. The INE (2015) defines the figure of “traveller” as the number of people who stay one or more consecutive nights in the same place. Crouch (1994) argues that the number of tourists is generally the basic unit used for measuring tourist demand. In our study, among other variables, we examine the number of travellers staying in each type of accommodation, but we could also calculate the seasonal variation in demand in relation to other more specific variables, such as those referring to overnight stays, points of departure, average stay, reasons for travelling or average expenditure of the tourists. Taking into account the high level of seasonal variation existing in the tourist sector (Kulendran & Wong, 2005), in order to make a correct analysis of the series, it is necessary to separate these variations. The procedure, which allows us to isolate the seasonal component, is based on the breakdown via moving average. In our case, the series analysed have a periodicity of 12, since we have all the monthly data. In this way the seasonal component is a factor by which we multiply (or add if the scheme is additive) the seasonal adjusted series to give
Table 1 Examples of definitions of Rural Tourism in Spain. Bardón Fernández (1990) Blanco Portillo and Benayas del Alamo (1994) Galiano (1991) Gannon (1994) Gilbert (1992) European Communities Commission(1990) Crosby and Moreda (1996) Fuentes García (1995)
Mediano and Vicente (2002) Secretaría General de Turismo (1992) Traverso Cortés (1996) Valdés Peláez (2004)
Accommodation, installations, leisure facilities, natural and architectural resources present in predominantly agricultural areas. Recreational and tourist activities carried out in natural rural areas including all types of adventure and sports tourism. Rural tourism and all sports, cultural and hunting activities carried out in the rural environment. The range of activities and amenities provided by farmers and rural people to attract tourists to their areas in order to generate extra income for their businesses. Journey or overnight stay in a rural agricultural or natural area. Tourist activities in a rural environment. A tourist activity carried out in a rural area, consisting of integrated leisure activities, for those whose aim is contact with the local environment, and which is interrelated with the local society. A type of tourism which takes place in non urban areas and which has a completely different development model to mass coastal tourism. Tourist activity which takes place in rural areas, consisting of integrated leisure activities, for those whose objective is contact with the local environment, i.e. nature, gastronomy, traditional architecture, folklore and popular traditions, and which is interrelated with the local society. Rural tourism refers to that which affects all type of tourism in the rural environment. Recreational activities, accommodation and related services located in the rural environment, aimed mainly at city dwellers who are seeking holidays which bring them into contact with nature and the local people. Sustainable tourist activity in a rural environment. Tourist activity taking place in the rural environment, whose main objective is the search for tourist attractions associated with rest, the countryside, traditional culture and escape from the crowds.
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rise to the original series. In our model, the observations without seasonal variation have a seasonal component of 1. Several authors refer to the behaviour and treatment of seasonal series (Allcock, 1994; Pérez López, 2001). The Seasonal Decomposition procedure decomposes a seasonal series into a seasonal component, a combined trend and cycle component, and an “error” component (Makridakis, Wheelwright, & McGee, 1983). The seasonal series (Yt) of the number of travellers, with t = 1,…,T, can be expressed as (Shiskin, Young, & Musgrave, 1967): Yt ¼ TCt ∗St∗It ; t ¼ 1; …; n where: – Tendency or Tt: the regular movement in the long term, it represents the long term trend of the series. – Cyclical factor or Ct: the oscillatory movement. They are fluctuations in the medium term in the trend. The duration (width or period) of the cycles show certain regularity (this width is measured from one peak to the next peak, or from one valley to the next valley). In practise, it is difficult to separate Tt from Ct. Hence, both components are usually included in just one, known as trend-cycle component TCt, which reflects the changes in level (height of sequence graph) throughout the development of the series. – Seasonal variation or seasonal component St: are oscillations of the series within the same year (unlike the cyclical factor, which are short term oscillations) of the trend that repeats itself in a similar way over successive years. The period is equal to or less than a year. The reasons for seasonal variation are of a physical- natural kind (weather, biological cycles, etc.) and of an institutional kind (school holidays, festivals, opening hours). – Irregular movement or It: variations of the series not included in the above. They are of a residual nature. They can be broken down into two parts: random component, which includes minor accidental effects, and erratic component, which is the consequence of events which are not always foreseeable but which can be identified afterwards (catastrophes, political upheaval, strikes, etc.). In the case of the seasonal series of the number of travellers, the model can be applied since the variables should not contain lost incrusted data and there is a component of periodic date. After performing the seasonal decomposition analysis, we obtained four series which together with the error component are: – Seasonally adjusted series (SAS). The values obtained after eliminating the seasonal variation of a series. – Smoothed trend-cycle components (STC). These values show the cyclical trend and behaviour of the series. – Seasonal factor. Seasonal adjustment factor (SAF). These values indicate the effect of each period on the level of the series.
Fig. 1. Evolution of travellers according to type of accommodation. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
issues in time series analysis (González & Moral, 1996). Therefore, the series, after eliminating seasonal variation (SAS) confirms the break in the upward trend in the last few years. In order to better appreciate the trend in the three types of accommodation with a lower number of travellers, Fig. 3 shows only these three series. Furthermore, Fig. 3 shows that the seasonal variation factor differs between different types of establishment. The seasonal variation factor related to rural tourism is the one that shows less pronounced seasonal behaviour compared to hotel accommodation, which has a very marked seasonal component. The diagnosis of the seasonal factor, summarised in Table 2, illustrates that when the value is greater than 1 in a specific period, the variable value will be higher than the average for this period, while, when it is lower than 1, the opposite occurs. Average monthly seasonal factors are estimated using the moving average approach. Results show that during the months of low season, the seasonal variation component has lower values (see January, February, November and December). While in July, August and September, this component has higher values. The consequences of this seasonal variation demand a strategic response in supply to overcome their adverse effects. Hence, tourist companies must adopt different measures to face the increase in demand, for example, in the number of staff hired, which may have negative implications derived from variations in training levels of employees or productivity levels. Below, we offer a description of the state of supply with variables that, according to the INE (2015), are defined as follows: – Number of establishments: it refers to the number of open establishments estimated in accordance with the corresponding Tourist Office Register of each Autonomous Community, an establishment open for the season is that establishment in which the reference month is included within its opening period.
4. Results Fig. 1 shows the first approximation before the seasonal breakdown. It presents the evolution in the number of travellers according to the type of accommodation. We are going to analyse the series' trends in order to clearly detect whether this is a sustained decline and the level of seasonal variation in the four variables under analysis. Fig. 2 shows the cycle of trends in which we no longer see the marked peaks (a consequence of the seasonal variation) which enables us to easily note the trend. In the four types of accommodation studied, but particularly in the hotel sector, we can identify a variation in the growing trend since 2007. This contrasts with the high rise in the hotel sector between the years 2003 and 2006. The estimation of trends, seasonalities, and underlying growth yield results that are important
Fig. 2. Series' trend. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
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Fig. 3. Seasonally adjusted series. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
– Personnel employed: all the paid and unpaid people who contribute through their work to the production of goods and services in the establishment during the month covering the period of reference of the survey, although they might work off premises. – Estimated places: the number of places estimated by the survey of establishments open in season. The number of places is equivalent to the number of permanent beds in the establishment. It does not include, therefore, extra beds. Double beds count as two places. Fig. 4 shows the evolution in places offered in each type of establishment. We can observe the growing trend in the case of hotel establishments and rural tourism accommodation. Another aspect identified in the graph is the high seasonal variation in the first three types of accommodation shown. We can observe the growth in the variables studied related, firstly, to the supply of hotels and secondly to rural tourism establishments. In addition, the average number of estimated vacancies open in each year are shown in Table 3. We can note the rise in the average number of vacancies offered, especially in the case of rural tourism. In the monthly series, we observe the corresponding seasonal variation existing in the case of personnel employed, with a significantly higher number of staff hired in the high season. Table 4 shows the annual average, which provides evidence of the rise in personnel employed in the case of rural accommodation. Fig. 5 clearly shows a very relevant fact: the high rise in the number of open rural tourism accommodation establishments, which is almost the same as the number of hotel establishments in recent years.
Fig. 4. The number of open estimated bed-places in each type of accommodation. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
5. Discussion and conclusions The data analysis illustrates the existence of a generally growing trend and of a very pronounced seasonal pattern: the maximum annual value is systematically observed in the month of August followed by the variable values in July and September. At the same time, in the months of January, February, November and December we systematically see the lowest minimum values. Given that high seasonal variation makes it difficult to extrapolate conclusions to correctly analyse the trend in demand for tourist services in Spain (in the last few years) we have eliminated the seasonal variation from the series and, as a result, we have been able to observe the stagnation in the growing number of travellers. However, there has been no fall in the number of places and there has been a marked seasonal variation parallel to that of demand, except in the case of rural accommodation which maintains a more constant supply of places throughout the year. In addition, this study reflects the relative greater level of supply and demand existing in hotel establishments as opposed to rural accommodation, campsites and tourist apartments. Specifically, it is worth noting the increase in the last few years in the number of rural tourist places offered and the demand for this type of accommodation. The results show the importance of promoting rural tourism since it experiences less seasonal oscillation and can support stable tourist demand, and therefore sustained economic development.
Table 3 Average number of estimated vacancies according to type of accommodation.
Table 2 Seasonal adjustment factor.
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
Period
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
Seasonal factor (%)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
58 69 86 100.7 113.9 120.6 133.5 146.6 124.3 106.9 72.8 66.3
17.7 21.3 43.6 84.6 85.7 133.1 276.0 346.7 103.5 44 22.7 21
63.7 68.8 79.1 86 93.5 118.2 154.9 178.2 123 95.6 67.7 71.3
46.1 64.1 91.2 111.5 94.9 99 129.9 170 102.8 109.1 79.4 104.0
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
1,055,863.7 1,080,290.4 1,122,052.4 1,175,513.6 1,212,597.8 1,263,779.4 1,297,648.8 1,340,438.8 1,363,934.3 1,398,900.4 1,427,699.7 1,427,699.7 1,432,582.1 1,434,520.2 1,437,330.2
466,774.5 485,867.0 475,361.3 487,823.8 490,176.4 482,163.2 480,066.2 486,298.0 483,630.5 485,771.6 479,538.0 479,538 487,702.2 494,759.7 488,048.9
425,649.8 429,045.9 432,564.3 446,452.9 438,064.6 445,710.3 440,810.6 441,656.3 443,110.0 434,971.3 439,695.3 439,695.3 444,807.3 453,421.5 450,072.8
42,925.4 51,111.3 59,884.3 71,488.3 83,916.2 95,905.8 103,312.9 114,766.3 126,222.3 130,882.0 137,760.8 137,760.8 142,468.4 139,827.9 141,478.2
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
V.F. Guzman-Parra et al. / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 123–128 Table 4 Annual average of personnel employed according to type of accommodation.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hotels
Tourist campsites
Tourist apartments
Rural accommodation
152,044 153,576 162,223 168,828 179,137 192,049 198,524 198,613 200,438 188,941 192,509 186,785 182,628 184,230
5014 5221 5129 5290 5405 5452 5583 5574 6667 5439 5493 5558 5604 5638
26,829 27,239 26,447 26,061 25,226 27,003 26,997 26,719 27,148 24,494 22,822 22,380 22,781 24,061
8101 9762 10,497 13,662 16,125 17,962 19,239 19,807 21,438 21,722 21,989 21,623 21,411 21,794
Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff (2005) note that there is a lack of studies that analyse when tourism seasonality occurs, how tourism seasons can be differentiated or how seasonality can be compared between different variables such as regions or years. A substantial change of the seasonal pattern of demand, particularly in this type of rural destination is a difficult task considering uncontrollable determinants of the phenomenon, such as climate (Allcock, 1994). Seasonality in tourism literature is usually considered a problem, causing negative economic, socio-cultural and environmental impacts on a destination (Butler, 1994; Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005). Nevertheless, seasonality does not always have a negative impact on the industry and the destination as the off-peak season has benefits such as time for environmental reclamation and resident recovery (Butler, 1994). Several authors have shown that the off-peak season provides a time to recover (Higham & Hinch, 2002; Hartmann, 1986; Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005). Crosby (1993) highlights the importance of sustainable tourist development and its permanence, which require integrated action in order to make the most of the resources, which involve the local population and the conservation and enhancement of the environment. Several authors, such as Andres Sarasa (2000) and Martínez Roget (2004) point out the opportunities which rural tourism can provide for the development of rural areas as a driving force. In this framework, we were able to detect that there has been spectacular growth in recent years in rural accommodation. Rural tourism is a determining factor in rural development and a driving force in some cases for the development of a region (Haven-Tang & Jones, 2012; Baležentis, Kriščiukaitienė, Baležentis, & Garland, 2012). This cross-sectional characteristic contributes essentially to the development of rural areas since it has a major revitalising effect on the rural environment.
Fig. 5. Evolution of estimated open establishments in Spain. Source: Compiled by the authors from INE data (2015).
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Cristina Quintana-García is Associate Professor of Management in the Faculty of Economics and Business Science at the University of Malaga (Spain). She is Director of Santander Center for Corporate Social Responsibility in the mentioned University, and previously she was Director for Quality and Strategic Development at such University (2008–2011). Her research interests are technology management, strategic alliances and other factors that help small and medium firms to perform their innovation processes, and more recently, family firms and the tourism sector.
Carlos A. Benavides-Velasco is Associate Professor of Management in the Technical Higher School of Industrial Engineering at the University of Malaga (Spain), and Director of the Strategic Plan and Social Responsibility at the mentioned University. His research interests include quality management (EFQM Model, ISO-9000, QFD, etc.), management of R&D activities, family firms and the tourism sector.
Jose Roberto Vila Oblitas is Assistant Professor of Marketing in the Faculty of Economics and Business Science at the University of Malaga (Spain). His research interests include Film Industry, Family firms Innovation in teaching methodology, Tourism and Rural tourism.