- Email: [email protected]
Trendy science findings more likely to be wrong
MIKE THEISS/ULTIMATE CHASE/CORBIS
UPFRONT
Blast clues in rare clouds WHAT do the space shuttle and a giant explosion in 1908 have in common? Both have been followed by strange, glowing clouds, and these may point to what caused the Tunguska blast a century ago. The blast destroyed a swathe of Siberian forest near the Tunguska river, and a day later people across Europe saw strange clouds that lit up the night sky. These were probably noctilucent clouds: rare clouds of ice crystals high enough to reflect sunlight long after sunset (see image). The fact that the clouds were seen just a day later suggests the explosion somehow injected water vapour into the normally dry upper atmosphere. But no one could explain how vapour travelled to the western edge of
Europe in less than 24 hours. Michael Kelley of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, now believes the water was carried by high-speed winds in the thermosphere, a region between 90 and 500 kilometres up, about which little is known. Although such eddies have never been measured, Kelley believes these winds would explain why observers near the poles have seen noctilucent clouds a few days after shuttles have launched from distant locations (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038362). Kelley thinks the clouds mean that the explosion was caused by a wet, icy comet, which shed some of its moisture up in the thermosphere, rather than by a dry, stony asteroid.
Drug-resistant flu
She has now recovered after taking the antiviral Relenza, and the drug-resistant strain appears not to have spread. The State Serum Institute in Copenhagen assumes resistance emerged during treatment with Tamiflu, as low doses can favour the emergence of resistant strains. If health authorities continue to hand out prophylactic treatments, further resistant cases are likely to emerge. As many countries have stockpiled Tamiflu, and a specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in time for the next wave of swine flu, this could prove disastrous.
–Day and night combined–
Doubt in fashion
“Claims involving extremely popular proteins were half as likely to be confirmed as less trendy ones ” at Harvard University has found that “popular” results are indeed less reliable – at least those regarding protein interactions in yeast. Such interactions are of 6 | NewScientist | 4 July 2009
FLIP NUKKLIN/MINDEN/NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC STOCK
SHOULD fashionable scientific findings be subject to a higher burden of proof? Yes, says a study that found links between the research popularity of certain proteins and the accuracy of reports about their behaviour. Researchers have previously suspected that trendy fields may attract spurious results, for two reasons. First, because there are greater rewards for getting positive results, so there is a stronger incentive to massage data or ignore outliers. Second, because more groups test trendy hypotheses. This would lead to more negative results, too, but the positive ones get reported more. Now biologist Thomas Pfeiffer
huge interest because they identify links between genes and their function. Pfeiffer scoured the literature for reports that one yeast protein interacts with another, and compared these to systematic measurements of these interactions. Claims involving extremely popular proteins were only half as likely to be confirmed as ones involving less glamorous ones. “For some research fields, a higher burden of proof would certainly be appropriate,” says Pfeiffer (PLoS ONE, DOI: 10.1371/ journal pone.0005996).
THE first case of swine flu resistant to Tamiflu raises questions about a policy in some countries of giving low, “prophylactic” doses of drugs to those who have come into contact with infected people. On 29 June, Denmark’s National Board of Health announced the first known case of H1N1 swine flu resistant to the most popular antiviral drug. The woman was in contact with an infected person and was put on low-dose Tamiflu as a precaution, but she developed flu anyway.
Preservation pays WATCHING whales is far more profitable than eating them, concludes a report published last week by the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW). It found that revenues from whale watching in 2008 reached $2.1 billion – double the amount earned a decade ago. “It’s clearly the most sustainable use of whales,” says Patrick Ramage of the IFAW. “You can watch the –Look but don’t kill– same whales dozens of times, but
UPFRONT
Blast clues in rare clouds WHAT do the space shuttle and a giant explosion in 1908 have in common? Both have been followed by strange, glowing clouds, and these may point to what caused the Tunguska blast a century ago. The blast destroyed a swathe of Siberian forest near the Tunguska river, and a day later people across Europe saw strange clouds that lit up the night sky. These were probably noctilucent clouds: rare clouds of ice crystals high enough to reflect sunlight long after sunset (see image). The fact that the clouds were seen just a day later suggests the explosion somehow injected water vapour into the normally dry upper atmosphere. But no one could explain how vapour travelled to the western edge of
Europe in less than 24 hours. Michael Kelley of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, now believes the water was carried by high-speed winds in the thermosphere, a region between 90 and 500 kilometres up, about which little is known. Although such eddies have never been measured, Kelley believes these winds would explain why observers near the poles have seen noctilucent clouds a few days after shuttles have launched from distant locations (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038362). Kelley thinks the clouds mean that the explosion was caused by a wet, icy comet, which shed some of its moisture up in the thermosphere, rather than by a dry, stony asteroid.
Drug-resistant flu
She has now recovered after taking the antiviral Relenza, and the drug-resistant strain appears not to have spread. The State Serum Institute in Copenhagen assumes resistance emerged during treatment with Tamiflu, as low doses can favour the emergence of resistant strains. If health authorities continue to hand out prophylactic treatments, further resistant cases are likely to emerge. As many countries have stockpiled Tamiflu, and a specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in time for the next wave of swine flu, this could prove disastrous.
–Day and night combined–
Doubt in fashion
“Claims involving extremely popular proteins were half as likely to be confirmed as less trendy ones ” at Harvard University has found that “popular” results are indeed less reliable – at least those regarding protein interactions in yeast. Such interactions are of 6 | NewScientist | 4 July 2009
FLIP NUKKLIN/MINDEN/NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC STOCK
SHOULD fashionable scientific findings be subject to a higher burden of proof? Yes, says a study that found links between the research popularity of certain proteins and the accuracy of reports about their behaviour. Researchers have previously suspected that trendy fields may attract spurious results, for two reasons. First, because there are greater rewards for getting positive results, so there is a stronger incentive to massage data or ignore outliers. Second, because more groups test trendy hypotheses. This would lead to more negative results, too, but the positive ones get reported more. Now biologist Thomas Pfeiffer
huge interest because they identify links between genes and their function. Pfeiffer scoured the literature for reports that one yeast protein interacts with another, and compared these to systematic measurements of these interactions. Claims involving extremely popular proteins were only half as likely to be confirmed as ones involving less glamorous ones. “For some research fields, a higher burden of proof would certainly be appropriate,” says Pfeiffer (PLoS ONE, DOI: 10.1371/ journal pone.0005996).
THE first case of swine flu resistant to Tamiflu raises questions about a policy in some countries of giving low, “prophylactic” doses of drugs to those who have come into contact with infected people. On 29 June, Denmark’s National Board of Health announced the first known case of H1N1 swine flu resistant to the most popular antiviral drug. The woman was in contact with an infected person and was put on low-dose Tamiflu as a precaution, but she developed flu anyway.
Preservation pays WATCHING whales is far more profitable than eating them, concludes a report published last week by the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW). It found that revenues from whale watching in 2008 reached $2.1 billion – double the amount earned a decade ago. “It’s clearly the most sustainable use of whales,” says Patrick Ramage of the IFAW. “You can watch the –Look but don’t kill– same whales dozens of times, but