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UK visitor survey
Case studies UK visitor survey This case study deals with the much neglected topic of visitor survey methodology, set within the general framework of the needs of local and regional tourism industries. Gareth Shaw and A//an Williams of the University of Exeter, and Justin Greenwood of Teesside Polytechnic explore the shortcomings of national based surveys for local needs using the example of Cornwall. They also address the importance of undertaking regular visitor surveys and the difficulties of constructing a longitudinal survey.
The ever increasing debate on tourism’s role in the UK economy and its potential for the development of a wide range of local economies is placing new demands on available sources of information. In the recent past there was a fairly well defined collection of resort areas, and to a considerable extent published statistics met many of the needs of the industry. However, the recent clamour by many urban, as well as rural areas. to develop new tourism economies is calling into question the adequacy of existing statistical sources for specific local needs. Furthermore, the changing nature of demand and the increasing segmentation of the holiday market in the established tourism regions are also raising the need for more regionally-based informaaccurate, tion. At present much of the information used by regional tourist boards and local authorities comes from surveys carried out at national level by the British Tourist Authority. The two major sources are the Brirish Tourism Survey Monfhly (formerly the Brirish Home Tourism Survey) and the Brirish Tourism Survey Yearly (formerly the British National TrarzelSurvey), which provide general information on such features as purpose of visit, duration of trip, mode of transport, estimated spend and size of group. Information from the former survey has been available on an annual basis from 1972, and is based on a combination of personal interviews and estimated non-survey data. The interview data are collected from a randomly selected sample of some 4000 adults (19S7 survey), with in-home interviews being carried out
TOURISM
MANAGEMENT
in all months of the year.’ Problems arise not with such survey techniques per se. but rather in the grossing-up of figures. Thus. in the 1957 survey ‘numbers of tourist trips are rounded to the nearest million, nights to the nearest five million and spending to the nearest f3 million’.’ As a national barometer of change, such rounding-up is acceptable, but at a regional or local level much more doubt is cast on the reliability of these figures. Indeed, these problems are recognized by the British Tourism Survey, which states that because of estimates and rounding measures it ‘cannot provide a sufficiently precise measure of tourism activity in small areas of Britain’.’ It is, however, at the regional, and more importantly the local level, that most development trends in tourism need to be assessed. This paper seeks to explore the increasing demand for more local and regional tourist statistics, and how these requests can be satisfied. The latter aspects are discussed within the context of a specific example, that of Cornwall, which is also used to illustrate the advantages and problems of initiating a longitudinal survey at a local level. To this end the discussion will largely focus on the practical and methodological problems of constructing a longitudinal survey, rather than giving full details of the results, which in any case have been presented elsewhere.’
Visitor surveys methodological issues Much of the available survey data on visitors is designed to measure a broad
September
1990
profile of the existing tourism market - length of stay. timing of visit and mode of travel. As Hollo\vay remarks. these are questions which deal with the ‘how’. ‘when’ and ‘u-here’ aspects of tourists and, as such. they are fundamental in any visitor survey.’ Most of this information, and certainly that contained within official surveys. is collected by standard questionnaire methods. In the official surveys the emphasis is clearly on collecting direct, factual data with little interest in attitudinal information. Even within surveys where attitudinal data on the decision-making process would seem to be of obvious value (such as BriM Holiciq fnterlriorls), only basic factual responses are sought.6 Here we have another dichotomy between the needs of local tourism industries and the provision of official statistics. Given the complexities of visitor behaviour, increasing numbers of local communities are requiring information on tourist motivation and behaviour. This is an essential part of the analysis of demand, kvhich should be a necessary preliminary for evaluating local management strartpies. In the face of this data gap. many local tourist authorities have turned to carrying out or commissioning their own surveys. A range of survey methods is available (see Table 1). although most local surveys have used questionnaire techniques, largely because of ease of operation and lower costs. Cost factors have also encouraged the use of inquiry conversion surveys. especially within North America.‘This approach involves surveying those individuals who write for tourist information and resort guides. These people are usually interviewed using postal questionnaires. However, as Perdue and Botkin have shown, considerable bias exists within such samples and they differ from visitor surveys by having fewer repeat visitors, different trip planning behaviour, larger group sizes and by purpose of visit.’ The arguments for using other methods. such as diar) approaches and time-budgets are, of course, well known. Pearce, for example, has shown that alternative
247
Cusr srrdirs Table 1. Main survey
than
in visitor studies.
methods
the
Pearce Method
Best use environment
(1) Ouestlonnalres
(3) Diary surveys (4) Behawoural
observation
(5) Cognitive mapping methods
methods ty
of
could
be used in a wide varie-
settings,
studies
although
have
the major these
been
British
methods
of
touring
surveys focused
on the
island
approach
reasons
tourists
destinations, their
holiday
work
by
both
occurred
time
periods. detailed
”
advantages,
in
survey
returns
rarely
exceeded
ized in many
corridors. given
many of which
holiday the
America
have
that
with
termed a short
sites
being at visitor
respondents
survey
Significantly,
rate
bias
both
and
In contrast the UK
248
of
to such studies,
to
to be
are cross-sectional
the vast
surveys
Pearce claims abuse
many
questions,
ticulated
response
over-long
lists
in
in nature,
of the presenr
in
UK.
the
academics
on adequthis
situation
veys undertaken
\rlth
more
local and Indeed.
by the tourist
try did produce
adecluatr
indus-
datasets.
least at the local or subregional closer
academic tourist
cooperation
tourist
industry
tourism
offers local
between and
It
that
and more
the example
paper,
has developed.
to
Gsitor
e\-piored
in this
Cornish visitor surve? rrtrrl pros~wcts
of
In contrast nature
the Cornish dinal survey
of
aimed
poorly
visitors,
and
earlier
visitor
basis
basic
ar-
to the short-term.
of many
sur\ey.
veys
probably
apply
to
of
with
kind
The
data
on
new. apart
in Cornbvall is the
Not
and
construct
out
may produce
poorly
questionnaires.
In
simple
often
percentages
Nash and Pearce
limit
argue.
be obtained
from
the
analysis
which,
survey.
thought-
addition.
to
as Dann,
seriously
res-
that can
such questionnaire
being plied,
try,
analysis
is, however,
a straightforward analysis,
far from
issue.
if inappropriately
can be even
more
Multiap-
detrimental
TOURISM
a large-scale. The
within
had
in visitor
an adequate for future surveys,
indusmarked
and lacked
on which
to plan
The initial
in 1987 and l9SS (funded of public
and pri\.ate
the establishment
Tourism
Programme financed
came
tourism
demand
database
the
to
longitudinal
experienced
investment.
pre-dated wall’s
attempt
idea for the survey Cornwall’s
which
changes
variety
surveys.”
variate
from
studies
Sur-
nothing
sets the work
budgets
on
experience. are
other
low
of
information
from
expertise
the
characteristics
holiday
this
a longitu-
collection.
and
together
surveys,
established
to collect
patterns
the Cornish
of
data
limited
local
in 1987, set out to develop
Some
limited
this
Cornihh
What
least,
guide
is against
the
survey,
the
the opportunity
sur\eys
planning.
at
level.
researchers
more informative
background
it
many of the sur-
surveys.
criticisms
with-
and
authorities.
whether
is
as a de-
more
are working
is debatable
users’ em-
categories
as
tourist
sets’.
However.
scription
items.”
of
data
most of the locally-produced
these
Data locally-based
sloppy
with
on the
tricts the range of information
cost effective.‘” majority
surveys.
is a widespread
same constraints
to com-
and to post back
area.
there
ploying
studies.
been
of the results.
be
prob-
impinge
data.”
by
applied
by the tourist
less appropriate
Problems
to
questionnaire
being
use basic nnaly>is
becoming
b>
former.
characterized
conducted
sets of
or
dynamic. needs
are
adequate
those
industry ate
surveys
The
techniques
‘marginally
while
between
en-
is a re-
activity,
strongly
such techniques,
inter-
has been shown
response
in using
reliability
has been util-
in those
to the methodological
diary
These
after reduce
lems
interview
plete on their this approach
low and
tour-
concerning
claims.
sophisticated t0
Iso-Ahoia.
industry.“’
to develop
use
local
tourist
Pearce
of argument
and those undertaken
sophisticated
Such
limited
tourism
attention
the
linking
picture.
it is particularly
As Hunt
be-
surveys.
of only
economic
directed
of
official
especially
new
where
visitor
the
percentages.
line
paradox
by academics
This
of
in scope and only
where
dis-
American
a diary
latively
one
to those indicators
regional
ism strategies, vironments
travel
have
at sample
leaving
have
questionnaire
one-minute)
access
to
To overcome
methods,
undertaken are then
and longer
many
North
‘front-end’ (often
both
of
knowledge
and operating
Finally,
surveys
techniques
a broad
in planning
to col-
a method
diary
give
of stu-
repeated.
in
annual
short
on
30%.”
and quick
views with
by
data are therefore
necessary
in North
problems,
collected
our
These are restricted
for
a part
changes
levels
relatively
rates.
have shown,
Such
reasons
particular
Cadez
simple
is confined
methods
levels of response
for
haviour
and
an
most
the
hv
the apparent
regional
visitor
throughout
season and rarely term
have
assess
to be one-off
undertaken
particular longer
Furthermore,
diary
tend
weeks
Few studies
Furthermore,
surveys
dies,
a few
and behaviour season.
budgeted
variations
variations
to
As a consequence,
based surveys.
However,
such
strong
a
the
study,
it is often
changes
on
season.
particular
information
trends,
use diary
used
reveal
they
over
of
these
and
visitors’
these short-term term
attempted
sites, and in their
satisfaction,
lect
have
Australia.
that
certain
One
on patterns
This
in
in the
visiting of
time.
Pearce
revealed
the holiday
entire
visited
at best
during
1974 study
to
and how
undertaken
applied
using one of
is Cooper’s
time-budget why
few
reported.’
of Jersey. “I This
advanced
Post travel phase of tourist expenence Establlshlng vIsItor profiles Quick lntervlews of basic tounst data - usually llnked to follow-up diary surveys Assessing tourist behavtour. especially through use of timebudget research (a) non-pamcipant mefhods Recording on-site behaviour of visitors either by research or electronic recording devices (b) partfcipant methods Detailed assessment of tourist behaviour using anthropoliglcal approaches Detailed assessment of visitors’ spatial knowledge
(2) Front-end surveys
uhe of simple
follous
bodies), of Corn-
Development (TDAP).
two by a
which
Action has
1989 survey.
MANAGEMENT
September
1990
Table 2. Structure
of Cornwall
visitor
Topics common to accommodation ist attraction questionnaires
survey. and tour-
specific
to tourist
survey
tributed
as shown
of Cornwall.
similar
their
A further,
Vwfor profile data Place of residence Size of famllyinon-family group Structure of group Type and reasons for choice of holiday accommodation Length of stay Prewous vwts Type of holiday lnformatlon on Cornwall Choice of holiday resort Pattern of travel Holiday experience data Holiday actiwties ReactIons to Cornwall Use of local informatlon centres Topics
the 10%
ibly affecting their overall perceptions
through
attraction
survey
holiday.
important
of Southwest
rationalizing
is es-
and reducing
indus-
modation
try.
therefore
survey
explore
the characteristics
viewing
throughout
period from tionnaires period
April
through
all
accommodation
(Table
by inter-
sary for the long-term
attractions.
This
which
only
views
during
previous
conducted July
visitor
visitor
survey
is
one directed at holiday tion establishments. the
county’s
(Table
2).
accommoda-
and the other
tourist
Due
structured
attractions.
at By
using these two main sectors it is possible to survey term
both short-
holidaymakers
and
can be seen in Table
As
clusters visitor
of questions movements.
2, a series
of
are used to assess component of the
and, to a lesser extent. holiday
planning. naires
In
addition.
circulated
attractions
the question-
through
contained
tourist
specific
ques-
The questionnaires through units
on the basis location
attractions,
as shown
useful
travel
size,
scale
survey
launched.” April
of
inter-
tion units and tourist
attractions
of its
long-term
In the Cornish
case
the
and October
were
the accom-
participating
instructed
attractions
possible,
in
to ask
the their
to the tourist of the tourists have
TOURISM
such a strategy was
although
again asked
questionnaire
only
accommodation establish-
ments. where response
through
was between
participating
to 34.3%
rates fell from
with
trend occurred as the oper-
cific to their
particular
over 45X,
rates
of
attractions
producing
44.9%
(6571)
(5408) respectively.
re-
response
instance.
and 30.9%
to reduce costs.
Therefore,
By
(Table
re-
4).
in response rates besectors of the sur-
vey raises one of the major problems associated with this type of approach
of questionnaires surveys,
attraction.
exceeding all previous
The variations in
the spe-
rates had increased to
tween the different
it was decided to
in subsequent
realized
sponses from the survey
As the survey ivas
designed to be repeated annually the first
the
benefits of collecting information
establishments.
Lvhile tourist
attractions
ators of these businesses
distributed
tion units.
17 500.
tourist
1987 and
ficantly.
1989 response
ceived
between
opposite
Of these 14 613 went to accommoda-
to
respondents complete
the
at the end of their visit attraction.
Clearly
thus interviewed been
part
Table 3. Sampling
framework
of the post-
at the end of their stay. In the case of not
value.
the holiday
1987, some 37 123 were
are
guests to complete the questionnaire tourist
in
large-
Cornwall
Consequently,
to
longitudinal
in
motivation.
in
factors
of
MANAGEMENT
used in Cornwall
3. Given
techniques
in studies
units
were
selected type and
in Table
phase of the visit.
modation survey
type is to
research
In the Cornish
lessened
or
-
namely
project two
undermined
the
were distributed
of their
questionnaire
most
of this
a sample of accommodation
and tourist
that
survey
a longitud-
19% and to just 20.3”/, in 1989. Signi-
order
sites.
in
and running
-
interest
a relatively
distributed
particular
4.
Indeed, one of the major difficulties
ly been undertaken.
faction
these
re-
-14.9%
reduce the number
with,
as is shown
they
in
that only limited studies had previous-
tions concerning the use of, and satislevels
although changes
of accommoda-
of 1987. and the fact
questionnaires
visitors.
the holiday experi-
ence (an important survey)
and longday
survey
economics and
this has proved more of a problem in
to the widespread
the first
five
in Table
inal visitor
main holiday months. The
and
10 to
convince the owners
studies
and August
from
produce
establishing
approach is different
that of many
of accom-
7-t to 25.
of the survey,
sponse rates,
tourist
by
3). Such changes \vere neces-
inevitably
Ques-
participating and
attractions
funding
during this
units
from
of visitor
to October.
achieved
the number
units
tourist
a seven-month
were distributed
of the 1YSY and also
set out to
and behaviour
1. with a
the sampling framework.
there
from
around two questionnaires
was
in the tourism
seasonality
survey
surveys
treme sensonulity The
England.
IZ 131) were dis-
in Table
reduced size
19S9
and in other parts
only
pattern in l9SY.
The
feature of the
is its coverage of the holidab
season. In Cornwall
Choice of tourist attraction InformatIon on tourist attraction Use of other tourist attractions
a factor poss-
the
Newquay Penzance BudeiNorth Cornwall St IvesiHayle LooeiLiskeard Area Falmouth-Helston Area Truro-St Austell Miscellaneous
visitor
survey
Small guest-house
Medium hotel/ guest-house
1 (4) 2 (3)
0 (1) 1 (2)
1 (2)
0 (1)
1 (1) 1 (1) 0 (3)
0 1 1 0 0
2 (2) 0 (2) 1 (3) 0 (4) 0 (0)
0 0 0 0 0
4 (15)
2 (9)
(4) (3Y (3) (1) (1)
Total (74) 6 (21) + 5125 tourist attractions 30 (85) Total survey points
1987-1989.
Large hotel
(1) (1) (2) (0) (0)
Large caravan1 campsite
Chalet
Selfcatering cottage
1 (2) 1 (1)
0 (1) 0 (0) 1 (1) 1 (1) 0 (1) 1 (1)
2 (5) 1 (4) 2 (4) 0 (0) 2 (3)’ 1 (0)
0 (0) 0 (0)
0 (1) 0 (0)
0 (0) 0 (1)
2 (7)
3 (6)
8 (17)
0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (1)
many would way
Notes: 1987 figures are given in brackets. “Some establishments are in both categories.
September
1990
249
Table 4. Variations in response rates in Cornwall survey 1987-1989.
Year
Rate of response
Number of returned questionnaires
96
1967 1987 1988 1908 1989 1989
Accommodation Tourist attractions Accommodation Tourist attractions Accommodation Towst attractions
6571 5406 1586 2963 1143 2807
34 9 30 9 34.3 39.5 23.6 46.6
motivation of the owners of holiday accommodation to participate fully in the survey. The first was associated with the dominance of small and medium sized establishments in Cornwall’s tourist business. and related to the high levels of repeat business that many establishments claimed. Therefore. in 19SS some participating firms felt it was rather pointless to continue with the survey because they would he surveying the same holidaymakers on a repeat visit. To highlight this point, the 1958 survey did reveal that 8.7% of the sampled populations had visited Cornwall for each of the last six years. hforeover, 3-t’% declared their intention to return to the county for a holiday the next year. While the practice of return visits may not always be exactly matched by intentions. the 19% survey found that only 17.5% of the sample were first time visitors to Cornwall.‘Y The second factor working against high participation rates is the level of visitor demand. In a good season, for example the summer of 1989, the estra effort in coping with an increase in holidaymakers. together with a feeling that future demand prospects are bright, induced a poor attitude to the survey. Consequently, many owners of accommodation establishments sent back fewer completed forms, often claiming they uere too busy. Such problems are inevitable in attempting to use long-term survey methods, based on voluntary participation, in the competitive environment of tourism-based businesses. The only successful means of counteracting such difficulties is through good publicity, showing the benefits that accrue from this research and, most importantly, careful monitoring. The latter was based around a system of monthly checks, following-up those establishments that had failed to return completed questionnaires. At the
250
allow thr vaiur: of the longitudin~ll survey to be demonstrated. Hovvever, given the increased competition among Britain‘s tourist regions and the growth of more market segmentation. it may well be that the areas which prosper are those which are most aware. through better market research, of changes in demand.
height of the busy season in 19S9 even the monitoring system failed to elicit a response in some cases. T‘he probiems of developing continuous annual surveys in some of the smaller hotels and the self-catering establishments have been offset by the increased participation and response rates from tourist attractions. Furthermore. the similarity in findings between visitor surveys from the two sectors and from the three different years indicate that a strong degree of reliability can be attached to the 19SS and 1989 results. Despite these difficulties, the estnblishment of the Corn&h visitor sursey in 1987 has proved successful in a number of ways. It has been responsible for raising the awareness of the local tourist industry of the importance of data gathering and improved market intelligence. This has been particularly so in the case of tourist attractions, whose quick recognition of the survey’s benefits may be measured in increased response rates. In addition. it has provided a wealth of new and detailed information on visitors’ perceptions - their likes and dislikes - about Cornwaif. Finally. it has also exposed the need for other forms of local survey work. especially the need to find out more about those people who do not visit Cornwall and the reasons for this. This has stimulated the demand for a non-visitor survey which is being conducted during 1990. The challenges of developing a longitudinal survey of the type described for Cornwall clearly involve keeping interest and motisation alive in the medium term. It is during the early stages of such work. certainly over the first five years or so, that interest among participating establishments and financial sponsors may wane. Not least the timescate is too short to highlight tong-term trends, and to
TOURISM
The t9S7-89 visitor surveys have prosided one of the cornerstones of a much larger series of projects which have investigated the changing level and form of tourism in Cornwall. Firm-level surveys of directly and indirectly tourism-dependent firms have provided the other data cornerstones.“’ Taken together these offer a basis for investigating both demand and supply conditions in the industry. Indeed. one of the more fruitful aspects of the study has been to took at the aspirations, motivation and interests of tourists in parailei with an analysis of business ownrrs’ perceptions of these. In a scientific sense. no research investigation is ever ‘finished’. It is rather terminated at a point which may be more or less relevant for obtaining a realistic assessment of underlying processes and structures. The Cornwall tourist project has neither been finished nor terminated in either of these senses. A 1990 visitor survey, and a follow-up survey of 19S7 and 19&S visitors. are currently under way and will enhance the breadth and depth of our understanding of the industry in Cornwall. However, even at this stage, it is possible to identify sev,eral important features of the industry, and of emerging temporal trends. Tourism in Cornwall is, essentially. in a healthy state. The region is attractive to in-migrant entrepreneurs and there are high rates of new firm formation. The county also offers a variety of holiday experiences which are positively evaluated by tourists, hence contributing to high rates of return and recommended visits. Indeed. the same qualities tend to attract both tourists and in-migrant entrepreneurs - these are the outstanding natural
MANAGEMENT
September
7 990
beauty of Cornwall.
and the variety of
rural
Isisurr
and coxtxl there
Yet.
;lre
also
inherent
nesscs in this position. ment
unfavourably
problems,
on traffic and on
wz:~li-
Tourists on
difficulties
and Justin Greenwood Department of Administrative and Social Studies Teesside Polytechnic Middlesbrough C/eve/and, TSl 3BA, UK
activities. com-
cleanliness
nnd congestion the
lack
of
all-
weather attractions in uII three surveys and. on balance. the wlume plaints
of com-
has increased over time.
may. or may not, be connected with a significant
decline in the percentnsr
first-time stantial
visitors number
motivated
of
A suh-
of non-econornicall4
entrepreneurs
the industry sensitive
to Cornwall.
meant that
;~s a whole is not alloys
as
to such trends as it could be.
Therefore.
one of the major contribu-
tions of the project has been to hiphlight the difference hetsvern the shortterm
;md the long-term
tourism
in Cornwall.
interests
It
is
of
precisely
because of this that it is inip~~rt~~nt to establish
accurate long-term
ing of tourism
monitor-
trends in Cornwll
indeed, in :lIi major tourist
Notes
This
anif,
re$xxi.
Gareth Shaw and Allan Williams Department of Geography University of Exeter Exeter, Devon EX4 4RJ, UK
‘British Tourist Authority, The British Tourism Survey, London 1987: see also English Tourist Board and Wales Tourist Board, The British Tourism Market 1988, London, 1989. These surveys are also discussed in J. Latham, ‘The statistical measurement of tourism’, in C.P. Cooper. ed. Progress in Tourism. Recreation and Hospitality Management, Belhaven Press, London, 1989, pp 55-76. ‘British Tourist Authority, ibid. 3British Tourist Authority, ibid. 4J. Greenwood, G. Shaw and A. Williams, Cornwali Visitor Surveys 1987, 1988 and 1989, Tourism Researdh Group, University of Exeter. UK. 1988. 1989. 1990. ‘J.C. Holloway, The Business of Tourism, Pitman 2nd ed. London, 1985. ‘British Tourist Authority, British Holiday lntenfions f 988, London, 1988. ‘A. Woodside, ‘Measuring the conversion of advertising coupon inquirers into visitors’, Journal Travel Research, Vol 19, No 2, 1981, pp 3&41. ‘R.P. Perdue and MR. Botkin, ‘Visitor survey versus conversion study’, Anna/s of
Tourrsm Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp 76 87. ‘P.L. Pearce, The Ulysses Factor: Evaluaring Visitors !n Tourist Settings. SpringerVerlag, New York, 1988. “‘C.P. Cooper, ‘Spatial and temporal patterns of tourist behaviour’, Regional Studies, Vol 15. No 1, 1981, pp 359-371. “0. Pearce, ‘Tourist time-budgets‘, Anna/s of Tourism Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp 106-121. ‘*J. Hunt and G. Cadez, Utah Tourism Spring 1978, Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, Utah State University, USA, 1980. 13R.R. Perdue, ‘The 1983 Nebraska visitor survey: achieving a high response rate with a diary questionnaire’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol 24, No 2, 1985, pp 23-26. ‘“0~ tit, Ref 9. p 48. 15G, Dann. 0. Nash and P.L. Pearce. ‘Methodology of tourism research’, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp l-28. ‘6Pearce. op cit. Ref 9, p 58; and SE. lso-Ahola, The Social Psychoiugy of Leisure and Recreatjon, Dubuque, IA, USA, 1980. “Pearce, ibid. “Op cif, Ref 4. “Ibid. “Part of the project is described in G. Shaw and A. Williams, ‘Firm formation and operating charactenstics in the Cornish tourist industry - the case of Looe’. Tourism Management, Vol 8, No 4. 1987. pp 344-348. ample.
Beamish Museum - modelling visitor flows
tourism has
econometric
demand
received
attention formally
between
countries research
demand. While
modelling
and
results of an analysis
study
Attention
tourist
nttrac-
may provide
a
understand-
nature and deter-
a sounder
basis
for
equation elementary shown
background,
MANAGEMENT
that
flows to
attraction,
Open Air
the
Museum
the form:11 modelling
of demand cannot be ;I substitute the intimate their visitor
flows
have built quently,
intuitive
is
focused
demand
on
model
economic
n sinple based
theory.
that such a model,
up over many years - frecan-
capture some of the more
.qualitntive’
factors
think
are
nevertheless
which
managers
important
provide
-
it
can
an appropriate
from which to work.
It is thus a
useful
complement
to managerial
tuition
and an aid to judpment.
It
on is
despite its
Background
in-
to Beamish
The idea of an open-air museum in the Xorth
of England
was first formalized
can provide some interest-
in 1958 tvhen a proposal
ing insights
and may be of value as a
Durham
County
1luseum
Sub
management tool.
Decisions staffing.
and product development
1990
of
that munl\gers ma!
an econometric annlysis
not easily
txw
for
knwledge
limitations,
September
,Iforeover.
tviil be ;l cw-
are presented.’
ing. investment.
It is against this
of visitor
individual
of England
at Beamish,
forecasting.’
TOURISM
North
by
of demand for the attraction
hence
a major
at the
better and more rigorous ing of the underlying
It is against this background thnt the
demand
level of the individual
minants
This
these ‘macro’ studies
modelling
Such
of
considerable
in recent years.’
complements
tion.
modelling
demand.
~~‘~~~~~~?~~ of past or forecast trends in
mny formal
to be affected by their for
some of these decisions
An econometric model of visitor flows to a single tourist aftfaction - Beamish Museum - has been developed by Adrian Darnell, Peter Johnson and Barry Thomas of the University of Durham, UK. The study complements the work on aggregate studies of tourism demand. The single equation model is subject to various limitations, which are discussed, but it nevertheless provides some robust results which are of interest both as a test of economic theory and as a potentially useful management tool. The
likely
implications
on pricmarketing
are. for es-
Atkinson, Curator
~vns put to
Council’s
Committee
Bowes by Frank
the then ne\cIy appointed of
the
Boues
Lfuseum.’
257
The ever increasing debate on tourism’s role in the UK economy and its potential for the development of a wide range of local economies is placing new demands on available sources of information. In the recent past there was a fairly well defined collection of resort areas, and to a considerable extent published statistics met many of the needs of the industry. However, the recent clamour by many urban, as well as rural areas. to develop new tourism economies is calling into question the adequacy of existing statistical sources for specific local needs. Furthermore, the changing nature of demand and the increasing segmentation of the holiday market in the established tourism regions are also raising the need for more regionally-based informaaccurate, tion. At present much of the information used by regional tourist boards and local authorities comes from surveys carried out at national level by the British Tourist Authority. The two major sources are the Brirish Tourism Survey Monfhly (formerly the Brirish Home Tourism Survey) and the Brirish Tourism Survey Yearly (formerly the British National TrarzelSurvey), which provide general information on such features as purpose of visit, duration of trip, mode of transport, estimated spend and size of group. Information from the former survey has been available on an annual basis from 1972, and is based on a combination of personal interviews and estimated non-survey data. The interview data are collected from a randomly selected sample of some 4000 adults (19S7 survey), with in-home interviews being carried out
TOURISM
MANAGEMENT
in all months of the year.’ Problems arise not with such survey techniques per se. but rather in the grossing-up of figures. Thus. in the 1957 survey ‘numbers of tourist trips are rounded to the nearest million, nights to the nearest five million and spending to the nearest f3 million’.’ As a national barometer of change, such rounding-up is acceptable, but at a regional or local level much more doubt is cast on the reliability of these figures. Indeed, these problems are recognized by the British Tourism Survey, which states that because of estimates and rounding measures it ‘cannot provide a sufficiently precise measure of tourism activity in small areas of Britain’.’ It is, however, at the regional, and more importantly the local level, that most development trends in tourism need to be assessed. This paper seeks to explore the increasing demand for more local and regional tourist statistics, and how these requests can be satisfied. The latter aspects are discussed within the context of a specific example, that of Cornwall, which is also used to illustrate the advantages and problems of initiating a longitudinal survey at a local level. To this end the discussion will largely focus on the practical and methodological problems of constructing a longitudinal survey, rather than giving full details of the results, which in any case have been presented elsewhere.’
Visitor surveys methodological issues Much of the available survey data on visitors is designed to measure a broad
September
1990
profile of the existing tourism market - length of stay. timing of visit and mode of travel. As Hollo\vay remarks. these are questions which deal with the ‘how’. ‘when’ and ‘u-here’ aspects of tourists and, as such. they are fundamental in any visitor survey.’ Most of this information, and certainly that contained within official surveys. is collected by standard questionnaire methods. In the official surveys the emphasis is clearly on collecting direct, factual data with little interest in attitudinal information. Even within surveys where attitudinal data on the decision-making process would seem to be of obvious value (such as BriM Holiciq fnterlriorls), only basic factual responses are sought.6 Here we have another dichotomy between the needs of local tourism industries and the provision of official statistics. Given the complexities of visitor behaviour, increasing numbers of local communities are requiring information on tourist motivation and behaviour. This is an essential part of the analysis of demand, kvhich should be a necessary preliminary for evaluating local management strartpies. In the face of this data gap. many local tourist authorities have turned to carrying out or commissioning their own surveys. A range of survey methods is available (see Table 1). although most local surveys have used questionnaire techniques, largely because of ease of operation and lower costs. Cost factors have also encouraged the use of inquiry conversion surveys. especially within North America.‘This approach involves surveying those individuals who write for tourist information and resort guides. These people are usually interviewed using postal questionnaires. However, as Perdue and Botkin have shown, considerable bias exists within such samples and they differ from visitor surveys by having fewer repeat visitors, different trip planning behaviour, larger group sizes and by purpose of visit.’ The arguments for using other methods. such as diar) approaches and time-budgets are, of course, well known. Pearce, for example, has shown that alternative
247
Cusr srrdirs Table 1. Main survey
than
in visitor studies.
methods
the
Pearce Method
Best use environment
(1) Ouestlonnalres
(3) Diary surveys (4) Behawoural
observation
(5) Cognitive mapping methods
methods ty
of
could
be used in a wide varie-
settings,
studies
although
have
the major these
been
British
methods
of
touring
surveys focused
on the
island
approach
reasons
tourists
destinations, their
holiday
work
by
both
occurred
time
periods. detailed
”
advantages,
in
survey
returns
rarely
exceeded
ized in many
corridors. given
many of which
holiday the
America
have
that
with
termed a short
sites
being at visitor
respondents
survey
Significantly,
rate
bias
both
and
In contrast the UK
248
of
to such studies,
to
to be
are cross-sectional
the vast
surveys
Pearce claims abuse
many
questions,
ticulated
response
over-long
lists
in
in nature,
of the presenr
in
UK.
the
academics
on adequthis
situation
veys undertaken
\rlth
more
local and Indeed.
by the tourist
try did produce
adecluatr
indus-
datasets.
least at the local or subregional closer
academic tourist
cooperation
tourist
industry
tourism
offers local
between and
It
that
and more
the example
paper,
has developed.
to
Gsitor
e\-piored
in this
Cornish visitor surve? rrtrrl pros~wcts
of
In contrast nature
the Cornish dinal survey
of
aimed
poorly
visitors,
and
earlier
visitor
basis
basic
ar-
to the short-term.
of many
sur\ey.
veys
probably
apply
to
of
with
kind
The
data
on
new. apart
in Cornbvall is the
Not
and
construct
out
may produce
poorly
questionnaires.
In
simple
often
percentages
Nash and Pearce
limit
argue.
be obtained
from
the
analysis
which,
survey.
thought-
addition.
to
as Dann,
seriously
res-
that can
such questionnaire
being plied,
try,
analysis
is, however,
a straightforward analysis,
far from
issue.
if inappropriately
can be even
more
Multiap-
detrimental
TOURISM
a large-scale. The
within
had
in visitor
an adequate for future surveys,
indusmarked
and lacked
on which
to plan
The initial
in 1987 and l9SS (funded of public
and pri\.ate
the establishment
Tourism
Programme financed
came
tourism
demand
database
the
to
longitudinal
experienced
investment.
pre-dated wall’s
attempt
idea for the survey Cornwall’s
which
changes
variety
surveys.”
variate
from
studies
Sur-
nothing
sets the work
budgets
on
experience. are
other
low
of
information
from
expertise
the
characteristics
holiday
this
a longitu-
collection.
and
together
surveys,
established
to collect
patterns
the Cornish
of
data
limited
local
in 1987, set out to develop
Some
limited
this
Cornihh
What
least,
guide
is against
the
survey,
the
the opportunity
sur\eys
planning.
at
level.
researchers
more informative
background
it
many of the sur-
surveys.
criticisms
with-
and
authorities.
whether
is
as a de-
more
are working
is debatable
users’ em-
categories
as
tourist
sets’.
However.
scription
items.”
of
data
most of the locally-produced
these
Data locally-based
sloppy
with
on the
tricts the range of information
cost effective.‘” majority
surveys.
is a widespread
same constraints
to com-
and to post back
area.
there
ploying
studies.
been
of the results.
be
prob-
impinge
data.”
by
applied
by the tourist
less appropriate
Problems
to
questionnaire
being
use basic nnaly>is
becoming
b>
former.
characterized
conducted
sets of
or
dynamic. needs
are
adequate
those
industry ate
surveys
The
techniques
‘marginally
while
between
en-
is a re-
activity,
strongly
such techniques,
inter-
has been shown
response
in using
reliability
has been util-
in those
to the methodological
diary
These
after reduce
lems
interview
plete on their this approach
low and
tour-
concerning
claims.
sophisticated t0
Iso-Ahoia.
industry.“’
to develop
use
local
tourist
Pearce
of argument
and those undertaken
sophisticated
Such
limited
tourism
attention
the
linking
picture.
it is particularly
As Hunt
be-
surveys.
of only
economic
directed
of
official
especially
new
where
visitor
the
percentages.
line
paradox
by academics
This
of
in scope and only
where
dis-
American
a diary
latively
one
to those indicators
regional
ism strategies, vironments
travel
have
at sample
leaving
have
questionnaire
one-minute)
access
to
To overcome
methods,
undertaken are then
and longer
many
North
‘front-end’ (often
both
of
knowledge
and operating
Finally,
surveys
techniques
a broad
in planning
to col-
a method
diary
give
of stu-
repeated.
in
annual
short
on
30%.”
and quick
views with
by
data are therefore
necessary
in North
problems,
collected
our
These are restricted
for
a part
changes
levels
relatively
rates.
have shown,
Such
reasons
particular
Cadez
simple
is confined
methods
levels of response
for
haviour
and
an
most
the
hv
the apparent
regional
visitor
throughout
season and rarely term
have
assess
to be one-off
undertaken
particular longer
Furthermore,
diary
tend
weeks
Few studies
Furthermore,
surveys
dies,
a few
and behaviour season.
budgeted
variations
variations
to
As a consequence,
based surveys.
However,
such
strong
a
the
study,
it is often
changes
on
season.
particular
information
trends,
use diary
used
reveal
they
over
of
these
and
visitors’
these short-term term
attempted
sites, and in their
satisfaction,
lect
have
Australia.
that
certain
One
on patterns
This
in
in the
visiting of
time.
Pearce
revealed
the holiday
entire
visited
at best
during
1974 study
to
and how
undertaken
applied
using one of
is Cooper’s
time-budget why
few
reported.’
of Jersey. “I This
advanced
Post travel phase of tourist expenence Establlshlng vIsItor profiles Quick lntervlews of basic tounst data - usually llnked to follow-up diary surveys Assessing tourist behavtour. especially through use of timebudget research (a) non-pamcipant mefhods Recording on-site behaviour of visitors either by research or electronic recording devices (b) partfcipant methods Detailed assessment of tourist behaviour using anthropoliglcal approaches Detailed assessment of visitors’ spatial knowledge
(2) Front-end surveys
uhe of simple
follous
bodies), of Corn-
Development (TDAP).
two by a
which
Action has
1989 survey.
MANAGEMENT
September
1990
Table 2. Structure
of Cornwall
visitor
Topics common to accommodation ist attraction questionnaires
survey. and tour-
specific
to tourist
survey
tributed
as shown
of Cornwall.
similar
their
A further,
Vwfor profile data Place of residence Size of famllyinon-family group Structure of group Type and reasons for choice of holiday accommodation Length of stay Prewous vwts Type of holiday lnformatlon on Cornwall Choice of holiday resort Pattern of travel Holiday experience data Holiday actiwties ReactIons to Cornwall Use of local informatlon centres Topics
the 10%
ibly affecting their overall perceptions
through
attraction
survey
holiday.
important
of Southwest
rationalizing
is es-
and reducing
indus-
modation
try.
therefore
survey
explore
the characteristics
viewing
throughout
period from tionnaires period
April
through
all
accommodation
(Table
by inter-
sary for the long-term
attractions.
This
which
only
views
during
previous
conducted July
visitor
visitor
survey
is
one directed at holiday tion establishments. the
county’s
(Table
2).
accommoda-
and the other
tourist
Due
structured
attractions.
at By
using these two main sectors it is possible to survey term
both short-
holidaymakers
and
can be seen in Table
As
clusters visitor
of questions movements.
2, a series
of
are used to assess component of the
and, to a lesser extent. holiday
planning. naires
In
addition.
circulated
attractions
the question-
through
contained
tourist
specific
ques-
The questionnaires through units
on the basis location
attractions,
as shown
useful
travel
size,
scale
survey
launched.” April
of
inter-
tion units and tourist
attractions
of its
long-term
In the Cornish
case
the
and October
were
the accom-
participating
instructed
attractions
possible,
in
to ask
the their
to the tourist of the tourists have
TOURISM
such a strategy was
although
again asked
questionnaire
only
accommodation establish-
ments. where response
through
was between
participating
to 34.3%
rates fell from
with
trend occurred as the oper-
cific to their
particular
over 45X,
rates
of
attractions
producing
44.9%
(6571)
(5408) respectively.
re-
response
instance.
and 30.9%
to reduce costs.
Therefore,
By
(Table
re-
4).
in response rates besectors of the sur-
vey raises one of the major problems associated with this type of approach
of questionnaires surveys,
attraction.
exceeding all previous
The variations in
the spe-
rates had increased to
tween the different
it was decided to
in subsequent
realized
sponses from the survey
As the survey ivas
designed to be repeated annually the first
the
benefits of collecting information
establishments.
Lvhile tourist
attractions
ators of these businesses
distributed
tion units.
17 500.
tourist
1987 and
ficantly.
1989 response
ceived
between
opposite
Of these 14 613 went to accommoda-
to
respondents complete
the
at the end of their visit attraction.
Clearly
thus interviewed been
part
Table 3. Sampling
framework
of the post-
at the end of their stay. In the case of not
value.
the holiday
1987, some 37 123 were
are
guests to complete the questionnaire tourist
in
large-
Cornwall
Consequently,
to
longitudinal
in
motivation.
in
factors
of
MANAGEMENT
used in Cornwall
3. Given
techniques
in studies
units
were
selected type and
in Table
phase of the visit.
modation survey
type is to
research
In the Cornish
lessened
or
-
namely
project two
undermined
the
were distributed
of their
questionnaire
most
of this
a sample of accommodation
and tourist
that
survey
a longitud-
19% and to just 20.3”/, in 1989. Signi-
order
sites.
in
and running
-
interest
a relatively
distributed
particular
4.
Indeed, one of the major difficulties
ly been undertaken.
faction
these
re-
-14.9%
reduce the number
with,
as is shown
they
in
that only limited studies had previous-
tions concerning the use of, and satislevels
although changes
of accommoda-
of 1987. and the fact
questionnaires
visitors.
the holiday experi-
ence (an important survey)
and longday
survey
economics and
this has proved more of a problem in
to the widespread
the first
five
in Table
inal visitor
main holiday months. The
and
10 to
convince the owners
studies
and August
from
produce
establishing
approach is different
that of many
of accom-
7-t to 25.
of the survey,
sponse rates,
tourist
by
3). Such changes \vere neces-
inevitably
Ques-
participating and
attractions
funding
during this
units
from
of visitor
to October.
achieved
the number
units
tourist
a seven-month
were distributed
of the 1YSY and also
set out to
and behaviour
1. with a
the sampling framework.
there
from
around two questionnaires
was
in the tourism
seasonality
survey
surveys
treme sensonulity The
England.
IZ 131) were dis-
in Table
reduced size
19S9
and in other parts
only
pattern in l9SY.
The
feature of the
is its coverage of the holidab
season. In Cornwall
Choice of tourist attraction InformatIon on tourist attraction Use of other tourist attractions
a factor poss-
the
Newquay Penzance BudeiNorth Cornwall St IvesiHayle LooeiLiskeard Area Falmouth-Helston Area Truro-St Austell Miscellaneous
visitor
survey
Small guest-house
Medium hotel/ guest-house
1 (4) 2 (3)
0 (1) 1 (2)
1 (2)
0 (1)
1 (1) 1 (1) 0 (3)
0 1 1 0 0
2 (2) 0 (2) 1 (3) 0 (4) 0 (0)
0 0 0 0 0
4 (15)
2 (9)
(4) (3Y (3) (1) (1)
Total (74) 6 (21) + 5125 tourist attractions 30 (85) Total survey points
1987-1989.
Large hotel
(1) (1) (2) (0) (0)
Large caravan1 campsite
Chalet
Selfcatering cottage
1 (2) 1 (1)
0 (1) 0 (0) 1 (1) 1 (1) 0 (1) 1 (1)
2 (5) 1 (4) 2 (4) 0 (0) 2 (3)’ 1 (0)
0 (0) 0 (0)
0 (1) 0 (0)
0 (0) 0 (1)
2 (7)
3 (6)
8 (17)
0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (1)
many would way
Notes: 1987 figures are given in brackets. “Some establishments are in both categories.
September
1990
249
Table 4. Variations in response rates in Cornwall survey 1987-1989.
Year
Rate of response
Number of returned questionnaires
96
1967 1987 1988 1908 1989 1989
Accommodation Tourist attractions Accommodation Tourist attractions Accommodation Towst attractions
6571 5406 1586 2963 1143 2807
34 9 30 9 34.3 39.5 23.6 46.6
motivation of the owners of holiday accommodation to participate fully in the survey. The first was associated with the dominance of small and medium sized establishments in Cornwall’s tourist business. and related to the high levels of repeat business that many establishments claimed. Therefore. in 19SS some participating firms felt it was rather pointless to continue with the survey because they would he surveying the same holidaymakers on a repeat visit. To highlight this point, the 1958 survey did reveal that 8.7% of the sampled populations had visited Cornwall for each of the last six years. hforeover, 3-t’% declared their intention to return to the county for a holiday the next year. While the practice of return visits may not always be exactly matched by intentions. the 19% survey found that only 17.5% of the sample were first time visitors to Cornwall.‘Y The second factor working against high participation rates is the level of visitor demand. In a good season, for example the summer of 1989, the estra effort in coping with an increase in holidaymakers. together with a feeling that future demand prospects are bright, induced a poor attitude to the survey. Consequently, many owners of accommodation establishments sent back fewer completed forms, often claiming they uere too busy. Such problems are inevitable in attempting to use long-term survey methods, based on voluntary participation, in the competitive environment of tourism-based businesses. The only successful means of counteracting such difficulties is through good publicity, showing the benefits that accrue from this research and, most importantly, careful monitoring. The latter was based around a system of monthly checks, following-up those establishments that had failed to return completed questionnaires. At the
250
allow thr vaiur: of the longitudin~ll survey to be demonstrated. Hovvever, given the increased competition among Britain‘s tourist regions and the growth of more market segmentation. it may well be that the areas which prosper are those which are most aware. through better market research, of changes in demand.
height of the busy season in 19S9 even the monitoring system failed to elicit a response in some cases. T‘he probiems of developing continuous annual surveys in some of the smaller hotels and the self-catering establishments have been offset by the increased participation and response rates from tourist attractions. Furthermore. the similarity in findings between visitor surveys from the two sectors and from the three different years indicate that a strong degree of reliability can be attached to the 19SS and 1989 results. Despite these difficulties, the estnblishment of the Corn&h visitor sursey in 1987 has proved successful in a number of ways. It has been responsible for raising the awareness of the local tourist industry of the importance of data gathering and improved market intelligence. This has been particularly so in the case of tourist attractions, whose quick recognition of the survey’s benefits may be measured in increased response rates. In addition. it has provided a wealth of new and detailed information on visitors’ perceptions - their likes and dislikes - about Cornwaif. Finally. it has also exposed the need for other forms of local survey work. especially the need to find out more about those people who do not visit Cornwall and the reasons for this. This has stimulated the demand for a non-visitor survey which is being conducted during 1990. The challenges of developing a longitudinal survey of the type described for Cornwall clearly involve keeping interest and motisation alive in the medium term. It is during the early stages of such work. certainly over the first five years or so, that interest among participating establishments and financial sponsors may wane. Not least the timescate is too short to highlight tong-term trends, and to
TOURISM
The t9S7-89 visitor surveys have prosided one of the cornerstones of a much larger series of projects which have investigated the changing level and form of tourism in Cornwall. Firm-level surveys of directly and indirectly tourism-dependent firms have provided the other data cornerstones.“’ Taken together these offer a basis for investigating both demand and supply conditions in the industry. Indeed. one of the more fruitful aspects of the study has been to took at the aspirations, motivation and interests of tourists in parailei with an analysis of business ownrrs’ perceptions of these. In a scientific sense. no research investigation is ever ‘finished’. It is rather terminated at a point which may be more or less relevant for obtaining a realistic assessment of underlying processes and structures. The Cornwall tourist project has neither been finished nor terminated in either of these senses. A 1990 visitor survey, and a follow-up survey of 19S7 and 19&S visitors. are currently under way and will enhance the breadth and depth of our understanding of the industry in Cornwall. However, even at this stage, it is possible to identify sev,eral important features of the industry, and of emerging temporal trends. Tourism in Cornwall is, essentially. in a healthy state. The region is attractive to in-migrant entrepreneurs and there are high rates of new firm formation. The county also offers a variety of holiday experiences which are positively evaluated by tourists, hence contributing to high rates of return and recommended visits. Indeed. the same qualities tend to attract both tourists and in-migrant entrepreneurs - these are the outstanding natural
MANAGEMENT
September
7 990
beauty of Cornwall.
and the variety of
rural
Isisurr
and coxtxl there
Yet.
;lre
also
inherent
nesscs in this position. ment
unfavourably
problems,
on traffic and on
wz:~li-
Tourists on
difficulties
and Justin Greenwood Department of Administrative and Social Studies Teesside Polytechnic Middlesbrough C/eve/and, TSl 3BA, UK
activities. com-
cleanliness
nnd congestion the
lack
of
all-
weather attractions in uII three surveys and. on balance. the wlume plaints
of com-
has increased over time.
may. or may not, be connected with a significant
decline in the percentnsr
first-time stantial
visitors number
motivated
of
A suh-
of non-econornicall4
entrepreneurs
the industry sensitive
to Cornwall.
meant that
;~s a whole is not alloys
as
to such trends as it could be.
Therefore.
one of the major contribu-
tions of the project has been to hiphlight the difference hetsvern the shortterm
;md the long-term
tourism
in Cornwall.
interests
It
is
of
precisely
because of this that it is inip~~rt~~nt to establish
accurate long-term
ing of tourism
monitor-
trends in Cornwll
indeed, in :lIi major tourist
Notes
This
anif,
re$xxi.
Gareth Shaw and Allan Williams Department of Geography University of Exeter Exeter, Devon EX4 4RJ, UK
‘British Tourist Authority, The British Tourism Survey, London 1987: see also English Tourist Board and Wales Tourist Board, The British Tourism Market 1988, London, 1989. These surveys are also discussed in J. Latham, ‘The statistical measurement of tourism’, in C.P. Cooper. ed. Progress in Tourism. Recreation and Hospitality Management, Belhaven Press, London, 1989, pp 55-76. ‘British Tourist Authority, ibid. 3British Tourist Authority, ibid. 4J. Greenwood, G. Shaw and A. Williams, Cornwali Visitor Surveys 1987, 1988 and 1989, Tourism Researdh Group, University of Exeter. UK. 1988. 1989. 1990. ‘J.C. Holloway, The Business of Tourism, Pitman 2nd ed. London, 1985. ‘British Tourist Authority, British Holiday lntenfions f 988, London, 1988. ‘A. Woodside, ‘Measuring the conversion of advertising coupon inquirers into visitors’, Journal Travel Research, Vol 19, No 2, 1981, pp 3&41. ‘R.P. Perdue and MR. Botkin, ‘Visitor survey versus conversion study’, Anna/s of
Tourrsm Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp 76 87. ‘P.L. Pearce, The Ulysses Factor: Evaluaring Visitors !n Tourist Settings. SpringerVerlag, New York, 1988. “‘C.P. Cooper, ‘Spatial and temporal patterns of tourist behaviour’, Regional Studies, Vol 15. No 1, 1981, pp 359-371. “0. Pearce, ‘Tourist time-budgets‘, Anna/s of Tourism Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp 106-121. ‘*J. Hunt and G. Cadez, Utah Tourism Spring 1978, Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, Utah State University, USA, 1980. 13R.R. Perdue, ‘The 1983 Nebraska visitor survey: achieving a high response rate with a diary questionnaire’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol 24, No 2, 1985, pp 23-26. ‘“0~ tit, Ref 9. p 48. 15G, Dann. 0. Nash and P.L. Pearce. ‘Methodology of tourism research’, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 15, 1988, pp l-28. ‘6Pearce. op cit. Ref 9, p 58; and SE. lso-Ahola, The Social Psychoiugy of Leisure and Recreatjon, Dubuque, IA, USA, 1980. “Pearce, ibid. “Op cif, Ref 4. “Ibid. “Part of the project is described in G. Shaw and A. Williams, ‘Firm formation and operating charactenstics in the Cornish tourist industry - the case of Looe’. Tourism Management, Vol 8, No 4. 1987. pp 344-348. ample.
Beamish Museum - modelling visitor flows
tourism has
econometric
demand
received
attention formally
between
countries research
demand. While
modelling
and
results of an analysis
study
Attention
tourist
nttrac-
may provide
a
understand-
nature and deter-
a sounder
basis
for
equation elementary shown
background,
MANAGEMENT
that
flows to
attraction,
Open Air
the
Museum
the form:11 modelling
of demand cannot be ;I substitute the intimate their visitor
flows
have built quently,
intuitive
is
focused
demand
on
model
economic
n sinple based
theory.
that such a model,
up over many years - frecan-
capture some of the more
.qualitntive’
factors
think
are
nevertheless
which
managers
important
provide
-
it
can
an appropriate
from which to work.
It is thus a
useful
complement
to managerial
tuition
and an aid to judpment.
It
on is
despite its
Background
in-
to Beamish
The idea of an open-air museum in the Xorth
of England
was first formalized
can provide some interest-
in 1958 tvhen a proposal
ing insights
and may be of value as a
Durham
County
1luseum
Sub
management tool.
Decisions staffing.
and product development
1990
of
that munl\gers ma!
an econometric annlysis
not easily
txw
for
knwledge
limitations,
September
,Iforeover.
tviil be ;l cw-
are presented.’
ing. investment.
It is against this
of visitor
individual
of England
at Beamish,
forecasting.’
TOURISM
North
by
of demand for the attraction
hence
a major
at the
better and more rigorous ing of the underlying
It is against this background thnt the
demand
level of the individual
minants
This
these ‘macro’ studies
modelling
Such
of
considerable
in recent years.’
complements
tion.
modelling
demand.
~~‘~~~~~~?~~ of past or forecast trends in
mny formal
to be affected by their for
some of these decisions
An econometric model of visitor flows to a single tourist aftfaction - Beamish Museum - has been developed by Adrian Darnell, Peter Johnson and Barry Thomas of the University of Durham, UK. The study complements the work on aggregate studies of tourism demand. The single equation model is subject to various limitations, which are discussed, but it nevertheless provides some robust results which are of interest both as a test of economic theory and as a potentially useful management tool. The
likely
implications
on pricmarketing
are. for es-
Atkinson, Curator
~vns put to
Council’s
Committee
Bowes by Frank
the then ne\cIy appointed of
the
Boues
Lfuseum.’
257