Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics

Journal Pre-proof Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics Ricardo Oliveira, Sandra Oliveira, José Luís Zêzere, Domingos Xavier Viegas PII:

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101370

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IJDRR 101370

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Received Date: 4 April 2019 Revised Date:

12 October 2019

Accepted Date: 16 October 2019

Please cite this article as: R. Oliveira, S. Oliveira, José.Luí. Zêzere, D.X. Viegas, Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101370. This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. © 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics Ricardo Oliveira*1; Sandra Oliveira2; José Luís Zêzere2; Domingos Xavier Viegas1,3

1

Forest Fires Research Centre, University of Coimbra (Universidade de Coimbra), Coimbra, Portugal

2

Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon (Universidade de Lisboa), Lisbon, Portugal

3

FCTUC; Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Coimbra (Universidade de Coimbra), Coimbra, Portugal

*

Corresponding author.

E-mail: [email protected]. Postal Address: Rua Pedro Hispano, nº12, 3030-289 Coimbra, Portugal 2

E-mail: [email protected]. Postal Address: Rua Branca Edmée Marques, Cidade Universitária, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal 2

E-mail: [email protected]. Postal Address: Rua Branca Edmée Marques, Cidade Universitária, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal 3

E-mail: [email protected]. Postal Address: Rua Luís Reis Santos, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal

1 2

Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics

3 4

Abstract

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Wildfires are a major environmental hazard in Portugal and cause deep social and economic disruption, demanding urgent actions for risk mitigation and people’s protection. We aimed to understand if the personal characteristics of people, such as age, gender or education level, influenced their knowledge and perception regarding specific topics related to wildfires: i) wildfire risk; ii) spot fires and the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI); iii) self-protection possibilities; iv) community involvement and v) knowledge on legal instruments and plans from government agencies, in order to identify potential mitigation and prevention actions more suited to their experience and needs. Starting with the residents of two small villages recently affected by wildfires, and then extended to other areas in the mainland, we used responses to 282 survey questionnaires to discover people’s perception on the different topics. Younger and more educated people feel confident with their knowledge on how to act in high fire danger situations. People with jobs related to forest industries mentioned having the ability to defend themselves and property. Most people found it difficult to provide a clear definition of wildfire risk and they did not know what WUI is, indicating that these concepts are not sufficiently understood amongst the civil society. Most people said they do not know about legal measures or plans that could mitigate wildfire risk, although these are commonly based on intervention at community level and individual household responsibility. Wildfire risk management strategies must address the challenges linked to the need to tailor communication to people’s conditions, educating at-risk communities in order to enhance the connection between citizens and community wildfire safety policies.

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Keywords: wildfire knowledge, population, questionnaire, mitigation, Portugal

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1. Introduction

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Wildfires are one of the most devastating environmental hazards in Portugal, causing severe

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social, economic and environmental consequences (Nunes et al., 2016; Oliveira et al., 2017;

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San-Miguel-Ayánz et al., 2013; Tedim et al., 2015; Turco et al., 2016). Most wildfires in the

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country result from human activities, with negligence associated with leftover burning as the

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primary cause (ICNF, 2015). The year of 2017 was particularly severe, with 115 fatalities due to

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wildfires, the highest annual number ever recorded in the country, and a total burned area of

35

around 500 000 ha (ICNF, 2017). The temporal trends of wildfire occurrence during that year

1

36

indicate that the larger fires, which having caused higher losses, occurred in late spring (June)

37

and autumn (October). The main wildfire season in Portugal usually extends from late spring to

38

early autumn, and it is defined between the 15th May and 15th October by the Portuguese

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National Plan for Prevention and Protection of Forests against Fires (Law nr. 124/2006, of 28th

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June) (Carreiras et al., 2014). During this period, an extra effort is carried out by the civil

41

protection services through additional financial and human resources, and most fires are

42

controlled in the early stages of development. However, some fires still escape control during

43

the early attack by suppression resources and may develop into large fires, above 100 ha

44

(Ferreira-Leite et al., 2016; Gill & Allan, 2008). A similar pattern is found in other European

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Mediterranean countries, where a small number of fire events are responsible for over 70 % of

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the burned area (San-Miguel-Ayánz et al., 2013). When driven by favorable weather

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conditions, in areas with irregular topography and higher slopes, these fires exhibit extreme

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and unexpected behavior and are very difficult to control ( Pereira et al., 2005; Tedim et al.,

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2013; Viegas et al., 2017).

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The tragic situation in Central Portugal in 2017 also derived from other characteristics of the

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territory, in particular the dispersion of small settlements scattered in wildland areas, where

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fire-prone fuels have accumulated due to depopulation and the abandonment of agricultural

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activities in the last decades (Moreira et al., 2011; Nunes et al., 2016; San-Miguel-Ayanz et al.,

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2012). These areas, generally defined as Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), have been the focus

55

of multiple studies regarding wildfire mitigation, since the coexistence of vegetated areas with

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human structures and potential ignition agents increase risk levels (Badia et al., 2011; Calviño-

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Cancela et al.,2017; Chas-Amil et al., 2013; Lampin-Maillet et al, 2011; Modugno et al., 2016).

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Due to these characteristics and the inability to control other drivers, such as climatic

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conditions, exacerbated by climate change, fuel management around built-up areas has been

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identified as a crucial strategy to reduce wildfire risk and increase human safety in WUI areas

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around the world (Ager et al., 2010; Bradstock et al., 2012; Fernandes, 2013; Oliveira et al., 2

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2016). Although a consensual definition is still lacking among the scientific community, the

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WUI can be defined as the areas where humans and built-up structures intermix with wildland

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fuels (Miller, 2018), and this coexistence of people, buildings and vegetation, brings further

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challenges to wildfire management.

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Wildfire management in Portugal, at the national level, rests on three pillars: i) the National

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Forest Service (ICNF), which is responsible for the coordination and planning of structural

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prevention and for forest firefighters; ii) the Civil Protection Authority (ANEPC), responsible for

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coordinating firefighting activity, including the management of firefighter services and aerial

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means; iii) the National Republican Guard (GNR), which is responsible for the initial attack and

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for the coordination of surveillance and detection activities. At the local level, municipalities

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are in charge of the elaboration and implementation of the municipal forest fire protection

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plans, usually made by a dedicated department, called the Forestry Technical Office; these

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plans are then revised and approved by the National Forest Service. The municipal services are

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also responsible for articulating with forest owners’ associations and private companies

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working in their territory. The local fire brigades, mostly composed of volunteer firefighters,

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contribute mainly to suppression activities (Beighley & Hyde, 2018). This management

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framework was implemented after the large wildfires of 2003, which were the worst recorded

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at the time, based on a restructuring of existing entities and the creation of new legal

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instruments and guidelines (Carreiras et al., 2014; Montiel-Molina, 2013).

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Most forested land in Portugal is privately owned (ICNF, 2013) and fuel management

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interventions shall, therefore, be primarily applied by individual landowners. In this context,

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investigating the perception of people about fire occurrence in their area of residence, on

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mitigation measures to reduce damages on their property and their ability for self-defense, is

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critical to identify efficient approaches of wildfire risk management in WUI areas. Prior studies

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have shown that risk perception and the way landowners respond to mitigation and

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adaptation options, depend on several factors; on the one hand, personal characteristics 3

88

influence the likelihood of adopting measures, such as education level, age and gender. In a

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survey done in southern United States, Gan et al. (2015) have found that higher educated

90

people were more likely to adopt wildfire mitigation measures. Regarding age, used often as a

91

proxy of the physical ability of landowners, Fischer et al. (2014) and Champ et al. (2013), also

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in the USA, have found that older people were less likely to conduct fuel treatments or to

93

apply mitigation actions. However, Brenkert-Smith et al. (2012) have found the opposite trend.

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Regarding gender, studies done in Australia have found women to be less engaged with issues

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of wildfire safety, risk perception and mitigation (Eriksen, 2014; McNeill et al., 2013).

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Other factors shaping the social context of respondents have been found relevant in wildfire

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risk perception, mitigation and response, namely the past experience with wildfires, place

98

attachment, social interactions and community cohesion, perceived property risk or

99

expectations (Bihari & Ryan, 2012; Brenkert-Smith et al., 2006, 2012; Carroll & Paveglio, 2016;

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Fischer et al., 2014; McFarlane et al, 2011; McCaffrey et al., 2011; Olsen et al., 2017; Paveglio

101

et al., 2016; Prior & Eriksen, 2013 Smith et al., 2007). However, the significance of these

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factors varies across space and with different levels of mitigation actions.

103

Our study aimed to uncover people’s knowledge of wildfire occurrence and its effects, and to

104

understand if and how their personal characteristics influence their responses and attitudes

105

toward prevention, mitigation and self-protection strategies, so far not done for Portugal. The

106

main purpose was to obtain exploratory data and analyze trends that could provide insights on

107

relevant factors shaping an individual’s response, which could potentially inform future

108

approaches regarding wildfire management and communication to the civil society.

109

2. Materials and methods

110

2.1. Study area and data collection

111

The data was collected through questionnaires composed of 40 questions, divided in 4 sections

112

(see section 2.2 for a detailed description). The survey was implemented in two distinct

4

113

phases: the first one was done in two local areas of central Portugal that have been recently

114

affected by wildfires: Algeriz (Vila Nova de Monsarros, Anadia) in 2016, and Pedrógão Grande

115

in 2017 (Fig. 1). In this phase, the approach was to do the questionnaires face-to-face, because

116

digital communications were not yet fully reestablished at the time of the survey and residents

117

are mostly elderly people with low digital literacy, therefore this alternative allowed to reach

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people who do not use digital means. In a second phase, the questionnaire was enlarged to

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mainland Portugal through an online platform, to obtain sample data from a wider territorial

120

and demographic scope. This option also allowed to reduce costs and time, since available

121

resources were limited. In both phases, the same questions were made and the only difference

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was the required personal contact with the interviewer in phase 1, who had a neutral role in

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the responses obtained.

124 125

Phase 1 – Algeriz and Pedrógão Grande

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Study Area 1 – Algeriz is a village located in the countryside of the civil parish of Vila Nova de

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Monsarros, in the municipality of Anadia, Aveiro district (Fig. 1). According to the latest Census

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Survey of 2011 (INE, 2012), the municipality of Anadia has 29 150 residents, distributed by 10

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civil parishes, and a population density of 134,58 people/km2. The civil parish of VN Monsarros

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occupies an area of 23.72 km² and has 1 713 inhabitants, with a population density of 72.2

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people/km², lower than the municipal average. In Algeriz village, currently live 30 people.

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Algeriz is representative of the type of human settlements present in inland areas of central

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Portugal, largely affected by wildfires, where small villages survive with few residents, low road

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accessibility and incomplete coverage of mobile and digital communications (Nunes et al.,

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2016; Oliveira et al., 2017).

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The municipality of Anadia was affected by a wildfire that started on 10th August 2016, with a

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burned area extending for 2 538.9 ha, which corresponds to 11.7 % of the municipality total

5

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area. The civil parish of VN Monsarros by itself, contributed with 1 691 ha, corresponding to

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71.3 % of its total surface. The cause of the fire has supposedly been the contact between a

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fallen electric line, in a steep slope, and the vegetation, mainly composed of eucalyptus, under

141

windy conditions (ICNF, 2016b). The fire did not cause human casualties, however there were

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damaged houses, electrical and communication services were disrupted, as well as the water

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supply for few days. From this area, 27 questionnaires were obtained, over12 weeks in

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summer and early autumn of 2017.

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Study Area 2 – Pedrógão Grande is a municipality located in the Leiria district (Figure 1) that

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covers 128,75 km2. It has 3 915 residents (INE, 2012) divided by 3 civil parishes. The population

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density is 30.4 people/km2, which is much lower than the national average (114.5 people/km²)

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and less than half of the population density of VN Monsarros (Study Area 1).

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This municipality was severely affected by a wildfire that started on 17th June 2017, with a

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burned area extending for 9407.6 ha, corresponding to 73.1 % of the municipality area. The

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probable cause of the fire has been identified as the contact between an electric line and the

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canopy of a cork oak tree, in dry and windy weather conditions (Viegas et al., 2017). In this

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municipality, 66 people died in this large fire, although not all were residents there. Over 1000

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buildings were damaged, some totally destroyed. Roads were also affected and caused traffic

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disruptions and road block for several days. The other services, such as electrical power,

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communication and water supply, were also disrupted (Viegas et al., 2017). From this area,

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additional 20 questionnaires were collected throughout a period of 6 weeks between July and

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September 2017.

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[FIGURE 1] Figure 1 - Location of the municipalities recently burned, where face-to-face questionnaires were carried out (first phase)

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6

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Phase 2 – Extension to other areas in mainland Portugal

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In a subsequent phase, the same questionnaire used in first phase was extended electronically

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to other areas of the country; in this case, the questionnaire was made available online for 6

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weeks in autumn 2017, using the Google Forms platform to reduce costs and decrease the

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time required for data collection. The questionnaire was disseminated throughout other areas

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in the country mainly via social networks and professional connections; anybody interested

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above 18 years old could respond, as long as they were currently living in the country, no

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matter the region where they were located. There was no limitation regarding the area of

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residence of the respondent, to obtain responses from people with different experiences

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regarding wildfires.

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In this phase, 237 questionnaires were obtained, the majority from residents of municipalities

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in central Portugal, such as Coimbra, Cantanhede, Mortágua and Santa Comba Dão. In total,

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from both phases, we obtained 282 validated questionnaires (Figure 2).

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[FIGURE 2] Figure 2 - Municipalities where residents have responded to the questionnaire (both phases), in relation to the % burned area of the municipality between 1990 and 2017

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2.2. Survey questionnaire

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The questionnaire had the purpose to collect information on residents’ perception of risk and

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their knowledge of WUI conditions. Data on personal characteristics and experiences of the

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respondents were also compiled, since these are linked to a person’s attitude regarding the

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implementation of prevention and mitigation measures (Paveglio et al., 2015; Prior & Eriksen,

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2013).

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The questionnaire was composed of 40 questions, divided in 4 sections:

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i) The first section included questions regarding the individual characteristics of people (age,

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gender, nationality, place of origin, education level and occupation). Additionally, the 7

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relation of people with forest activities and their prior experience with wildfires were also

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included (Error! Reference source not found.);

194 195 196 197 198 199

ii) The second section comprised the conceptual understanding of wildfire risk, spot fires and wildland-urban interface areas; iii) The third section focused on the prior experience of people with different wildfire impacts and their knowledge on propagation conditions related to construction and property; iv) The fourth section included questions about the knowledge and preferences of people regarding wildfire prevention and mitigation measures.

200 201

2.2.1. Categories for personal characteristics

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The lowest age group was set between 18 and 25 years and the highest age group threshold

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was above 65, considering that age, linked to certain levels of knowledge and experience,

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influences wildfire perception and risk mitigation measures (Olsen et al., 2017; Paveglio et al.,

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2016; Pereira et al., 2016). The education categories were defined according to the school

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levels established in Portugal; “no education” means the person did not go to school and is

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assumed to be illiterate; the “elementary” school level corresponds to the first 4 years of

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formal education; the “intermediate” category matches the following 5 years of schooling,

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whereas the “secondary” represents the subsequent 3 years required to complete the

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compulsory 12-year school path. The “university” level mentioned here includes all kinds of

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post-secondary formal education, whether university (the most common in Portugal) or other

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options, for simplicity purposes.

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The jobs related to forest represent the professional activities which require direct contact

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with forested areas or whose tasks relate to the management of forest areas, such as

8

215

lumberjack, forest firefighter or forester, and people working in industry activities like cork

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transformation or paper pulp (Louro, 2015).

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Table 1 - Description of the questions related to personal characteristics Personal Categories Characteristics Gender Age group Education level Job related to forest

Female

Male

No response

<25

25-35

36-49

50-65

>65

No response

No education

Elementary

Intermediate

Secondary

University

No response

Yes

No

No response

219 220 221

2.2.2. Categories for other questions

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From the 40 questions available in the questionnaire, 11 are here presented and discussed, as

223

they are the ones associated with the purposes of this work. The questions (translated to

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English) and the corresponding response possibilities or categories are shown in Table 2.

225 226

Table 2 - Description of the questions analyzed and the possibilities of response Topic

Code

Question

Type

What is wildfire risk?

Open-ended (b)

Probability of occurrence

Risk

Favourable conditions

Lack of fuel management

How do you evaluate your knowledge regarding wildfire risk?

Multiple choice/ closed

None

Low

High

No response

Q3

Do you know what spot fires are?

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Q4

Do you know what is the Wildland-Urban Interface?

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Q1 Wildfire risk Q2

WUI, spot fire and flammability Q5

Q6 Selfprotection

Q7

Measures Q8 and

Categories

Do you know the flammability levels of the vegetation surrounding your house? Do you know what to do on days with high wildfire danger (very hot and dry)? Do you think you can protect yourself, your dependents and your property against wildfires, autonomously? Do you think that sufficient measures (political and operational) have been applied to mitigate wildfire risk in WUI

Other

No response

9

instruments

areas?

Q9

Q10 Community involvement Q11

227 228 229

Do you know any political instrument (a) to prevent and mitigate wildfire risk? Do you think a better informed and prepared community is an important condition for the prevention and mitigation of wildfire risk? In your opinion, what can be the main contribution of civil society to solve issues related to wildfires?

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Multiple choice/ closed

Yes

No

No response

Open-ended (b)

Fuel management

Community engagement

Prevention

Training/ information

Other

No response

(a) Political instruments comprise a set of legal measures, regulations or guidance for good practices to deal with hazards and catastrophes, among which emergency and risk mitigation plans, that may be applied at different decision levels.

(b) Categories defined based on text mining techniques (see section 3.2)

230 231

2.3. Data analysis

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The data analysis was made for the whole set of questionnaires compiled, regardless of the

233

implementation phase, to ensure that the results mirrored the diverse set of socio-

234

demographic conditions and personal circumstances and experiences, as well as a wider

235

geographical coverage.

236

The personal characteristics of the interviewees, compiled in section 1 of the questionnaire,

237

were first analyzed with descriptive statistics, to uncover the overall sociodemographic

238

context. These characteristics were subsequently tested for association with the responses

239

given in the other sections (Tables 1 and 2). To attain this goal, the Pearson χ2 (chi-square) test

240

was applied to multiple pairs of questions. This test measures the difference between the

241

observed values in each category and the expected values, which should be similar among

242

categories if no significant association exists (Scheffe, 1959). For open-ended questions, to

243

which no prior option was provided and where the responses were based on the individual’s

244

own knowledge or experience, a data-driven analysis based on text mining techniques was first

245

applied to classify the responses obtained. These techniques allow to explore the frequency of

246

specific terms, the relation between different words and to visualize graphically the most 10

247

common words that people associate with the question posed (with word clouds, for

248

example). These results were used to define particular categories of responses retrieved from

249

the open-ended questions, for further analysis regarding their association with personal

250

characteristics. The statistical analysis of the questionnaire responses was made with the R

251

software (R Core Development Team, 2018), to create automatic routines and to enable the

252

replication of the analysis procedure in other areas and with new data.

253 254

3. Results and Discussion

255

3.1. Personal characteristics and sociodemographic context

256

The majority of respondents were women (60 %) and nearly half were between 35 and 65

257

years old (Fig. 3). Regarding education, the large majority (59 %) have completed a university

258

degree, who belonged predominantly in lower age groups, up to 50 years old. Still, 5 % of the

259

interviewed people did not go to school, 76 % of whom are women. All the illiterate people in

260

our database are now above 65 years old and they all live in the affected areas of Algeriz and

261

Pedrogão (Error! Reference source not found.), where data collection was based on face-to-

262

face questionnaires. In fact, the illiteracy, the weak mobile network and internet access in

263

these locations, are barriers to the implementation of other types of data collection methods.

264

The people who have only the elementary school level are all, nowadays, above 50 years old,

265

and 85 % of them also live in these two small villages. About 15 % of people had a job related

266

to forest activities and from these, 80 % are men (Error! Reference source not found.).

267

[FIGURE 3]

268

Figure 3 - Job related to forest in relation to gender (% responses)

269 270

[FIGURE 4]

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Figure 4 - Education level by age groups (% responses)

11

272 273

3.2. Classification of open-ended questions

274

Questions Q1 and Q11 (Table 2) presented many different responses, since no prior option

275

was provided (open-ended). The application of text mining techniques allowed to retrieve the

276

most frequent words used by people and how they related to each other.

277

In Q1, the most frequent words, besides fire (“incendio”), were probability (“probabilidade”),

278

occurrence (“ocorrencia”), forest (“floresta”/”florestal”), conditions (“condicoes”), risk

279

(“risco”) and fuel management (“limpeza”); in addition, words related to weather were also

280

presented, such as moisture (“humidade”) and temperature (“temperature”), as well as

281

concepts like danger (“perigo”) and ignition (“ignicao”) (Fig. 5).

282

[FIGURE 5]

283

Figure 5 - Word cloud representing the most common terms used by people in responses to Q1. The bigger the word, the more

284

frequently it was used. Translation in English is provided in the table on the right

285 286

Regarding Q11, the most frequent words were, by descending order, fuel management

287

(“limpeza”), prevention (“prevenção”), land (“terrenos”), training (“formação”), everybody

288

(“todos”) and firefighting (“combate”). The term “prevention” was found to be associated to

289

words such as articulation, behaviour, control, coordination (combined efforts) and legislation,

290

whereas the term “training” appeared together with action, rural, intervention and residents

291

(Error! Reference source not found.).

292 293

[FIGURE 6]

294

Figure 6 - Word cloud representing the most common terms used by people in responses to Q11. The bigger the word, the more

295

frequently it was used. Translation in English is provided in the table on the right

296

From these results, we applied the following categories to the responses of Q1 and Q11 (Table

297

3):

12

298

Table 3 - Categories applied to the responses given for Q1 and Q11

Categories of Q1 Probability of occurrence Risk Favourable conditions Lack of fuel management Other Doesn’t know/No response

Categories of Q11 Fuel management Community involvement Prevention Training/Information Other Doesn’t know/No response

299 300 301

3.3. Association of wildfire perception and mitigation preferences with personal characteristics

302

The responses given were significantly different depending on the personal characteristics of

303

people; of the 11 questions analyzed in this work, Q2 (risk knowledge) and Q5 (flammability of

304

species in property) showed a significant relationship with the 4 types of personal

305

characteristics, and the other questions have a significant relation with either 2 or 3 of the

306

characteristics analyzed (Table 4).

307 308

Table 4 - Personal characteristics associated with the responses given in each question

Topic

Question Code

Personal characteristics Gender

Q1

Age group

Education level

Job related to forest

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Wildfire risk

WUI, spot fire and flammability

Selfprotection

309 310

Q2

X

Q3

X

Q4

X

Q5

X

Q6 Q7

X X

X

X

X

X

X

Measures and instruments

Q8

Community involvement

Q10

X

X

Q11

X

X

Q9

X X

X

X

X

X

X

Note: The X marks a significant relationship found (p-value <0.05) between the categories of personal characteristics and the categories of the response, which are identified by code and the general topic.

311 312 313

3.3.1 Wildfire risk

13

314

The definition of the wildfire risk concept (Q1) varies according to age and education level

315

(Table 5). The most evident pattern is the response “Doesn’t know/respond”, given by 70 % of

316

the people who are above 65 years old. The majority of people who gave an open response

317

mentioned that wildfire risk is not a probability, weather conditions nor fuel management,

318

giving a wide diversity of opinions that were difficult to classify (“Others”). However, 30 % of

319

the younger interviewees (below 25 years old) provided definitions implying “probability” or

320

“risk”. Regarding education levels, people with lower education say predominantly “Doesn’t

321

know/respond”, a trend linked to the fact that these people are usually older. The relation of

322

wildfire risk with “probability" was mostly selected by people with university level (33 %) and

323

with secondary education (20 % of the people with this school level). Indeed, we noted that

324

even among the people with higher education, it was not easy to define wildfire risk.

325

The self-evaluation of wildfire risk knowledge (Q2) is associated with all 4 characteristics (Table

326

5). In general, more women mention having lower knowledge than men. A similar trend was

327

found for people with no education or with only elementary school level, with 85 % and 58 %

328

responding “Do not know/respond”, respectively. No one within these education categories

329

responded having “High” knowledge. The proportion of people that responded “High

330

knowledge” was greater in younger people, particularly between 25 and 35 years old. Having a

331

job related to forest also increases significantly the proportion of people mentioning “High

332

knowledge” on wildfire risk, a response likely derived from their direct work experience.

333

Despite wildfires being common in mainland Portugal, the lack of precise knowledge of wildfire

334

risk seems to be shared by people with different characteristics. This may be due to the

335

terminology used, since wildfire-related concepts are not consensual, even among academics,

336

technicians and stakeholders (Birkmann et al., 2013; Pereira et al., 2016). Moreover, as

337

McCaffrey et al. (2013) found, wildfire risk perception is subjective and depends on factors

338

such as personal risk tolerance, spatial and temporal scale and severity of fire outcomes. On

339

the other hand, Champ and Brenkert-Smith (2016) have also found, for communities in 14

340

Colorado, USA, that the perceived probability of a fire did not change substantially over time,

341

even after extreme wildfire events, indicating that prior experience correlates weakly with

342

perceived risk. In this case, our results indicate that it is difficult for people, overall, to provide

343

a clear definition of what wildfire risk is, although younger people and those with jobs related

344

to forest were more confident in the level of knowledge they have.

345 346 347

Table 5 - Results of the χ2 test of association between the responses regarding wildfire risk perception and knowledge and the personal characteristics of interviewees Gender Code Q1

Wildfire risk concept

Q2

Risk knowledge

Main results of the association

348 349

Age group

Education level

Job related to forest

Question Topic χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

10,731

5

0,0570

104,443

25

0,0000

106,289

20

0,0000

15,031

10

0,1309

24,636

3

0,0000

30,192

15

0,0112

40,380

12

0,0001

30,814

6

0,0000

Risk Knowledge Low • 73% women • 47% men High • 21% women • 49% men

Risk concept • 70% elders (>65 years old) say “Doesn’t know/respond” Risk knowledge The proportion of people who say “Low” increases with age • 38% people aged 25-35 say “High”

Risk concept • 85% of illiterate and 58% with elementary school say “Doesn’t know/respond” Risk knowledge • 77% of illiterate say “Low” and 0% say “High” • 32% with university and 38% with intermediate level say “High”

Risk Knowledge • 65% with forest job say “High” • 67% without forest job say “Low”

χ2 – value of the Pearson χ2 test; p-value indicates significance of the association; if the p-value is less than 0.05, the difference in the responses related to the personal characteristic tested is significant at 95% level. df – degrees of freedom

350 351

3.3.2 Spot fire, WUI and species flammability

352

The awareness of the spot fire concept varies significantly with gender, education and with the

353

forest-related job (Table 6). The majority of people mentioned knowing what a spot fire is,

354

although the proportion increases for men and for people having a job related to forest.

355

Regarding education levels, the most evident pattern is the higher percentage of people with

356

lower education saying “No” to spot fire knowledge (85 % of illiterate and 50 % of people with

357

elementary level), whereas people with secondary and university levels say predominantly

358

“Yes”, with 68 % and 70 %, respectively. People with higher education were more confident

359

with their knowledge of the concept, which indicates that this term is likely disseminated

360

through formal education, specifically at the higher levels. Nevertheless, we could not assess if

361

their notion of a spot fire matches the concept used in the scientific domain. This knowledge is 15

362

particularly important with regards to the protection of one’s property, since it is linked to

363

specific fire impacts (Egorova et al., 2018; Suzuki & Manzello, 2017; Viegas et al., 2012),

364

therefore its suitable dissemination to all segments of society, through different means

365

besides formal education, is crucial to improve self-preparedness.

366

Unlike what was found for spot fires, most people said “NO” with regards to knowing what the

367

Wildland-Urban Interface is (Table 6). The percentage is higher for women, for elderly people

368

and for people without a job related to forest. This indicates that the WUI concept is not yet

369

sufficiently disseminated outside the scientific domain and is restricted to certain activities,

370

despite being a focused topic for wildfire researchers for at least two decades (Calkin et al.,

371

2014; Calviño-Cancela et al., 2017; Cohen, 2008; Lampin-Maillet et al., 2010; Stewart et al., ,

372

2007). This lack of knowledge of the general public is a concern, since the approaches and

373

measures being proposed and tested to mitigate wildfire risk are focused in the WUI; indeed,

374

since these measures are to be implemented by land or property owners, their suitable

375

involvement requires a proper understanding of the landscape they are supposed to intervene

376

on. Our findings indicate that the concept of WUI is not engrained in people’s lives, which can

377

hamper the implementation of the strategies planned.

378

Regarding the knowledge of the flammability of species in their property, only 13 % of people

379

above 65 years old said “Yes”, against 55 % of the people below 25 years old. When analyzed

380

in view of the education level, the majority of people said “NO”, although the percentage

381

increased for illiterate people, which are all nowadays above 65 years old. For those people

382

with university education, 54 % also said having no knowledge on species flammability,

383

whereas for people with only elementary education this proportion decreases slightly (50 %).

384

About 65 % of the people with a job related to forest said they have a high knowledge on

385

species flammability, against 39 % of those with different professional activities. These results

386

indicate that formal education is not the main source of information regarding species

387

flammability on their property, but most likely the prior experience with forest and rural 16

388

activities. The people with elementary education level are, nowadays, above 50 years old, and

389

therefore have a stronger connection to the land and have lived through the transformations

390

of the rural areas occurred in Portugal in the past decades (Moreira et al., 2011; Nunes et al.,

391

2016; Oliveira et al., 2017; San-Miguel-Ayánz et al., 2012). Since current lifestyles are less

392

dependent on land and farming practices, the knowledge on species and their flammability

393

should be fostered through other means, to counteract the detachment from traditional land

394

management activities and to improve homeowners’ self-protection abilities.

395 396 397

Table 6 - Results of the χ2 test of association between the responses regarding WUI, spot fires and flammability, and the personal characteristics of interviewees Gender Code

Education level

Job related to forest

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

12,43

2

0,0020

13,1307

10

0,2165

23,3137

8

0,0030

35,2153

4

0,0000

Q3

Spot fires

Q4

WUI

8,6577

2

0,0132

15,1639

10

0,1262

8,8292

8

0,3569

15,2779

4

0,0042

Q5

Flammability levels

7,3463

2

0,0254

33,2376

10

0,0002

25,9611

8

0,0011

13,7358

4

0,0082

Spot fires, most people say Yes • 57% women • 74% men

Main results of the association

WUI, most people say No • 74% women • 58% men Flammability, variable • 35% women say Yes • 51% men say Yes

398 399

Age group

Question Topic

Flammability, most people below 65 years old say Yes • 55% below 25 years old • 53% 25-64 years old • Only 13% of people >65 years old say Yes

Spot fires, % of Yes increases with education level • 85% of illiterate and 50% with elementary school say No • 68% with secondary and 70% with university say Yes Flammability, variable • 77% illiterate say No • 54% university say No • 50% elementary say No

Proportion of people saying Yes increases if job is related to forest Spot fires • 64% without forest job • 89% with forest job WUI • 24% without forest job • 54% with forest job Flammability • 39% without forest job • 65% with forest job

χ2 – value of the Pearson χ2 test; p-value indicates significance of the association; if the p-value is less than 0.05, the difference in the responses related to the personal characteristic tested is significant at 95% level. df – degrees of freedom

400 401

3.3.3 Self-protection

402

In what concerns knowing what to do on days of extreme weather conditions (Q6), the

403

proportion of people saying “Yes” decreases in the upper age class (>65 years old). Education

404

level seems to have an effect as well, since the proportion of people that mentioned knowing

405

what to do increased with education level, particularly in intermediate levels (secondary)

406

(Table 7).

17

407

Regarding the self-protection of people and their property (Q7), most people mentioned they

408

are not confidently able to protect themselves; 92 % of the people with no education

409

mentioned they cannot protect themselves properly, but most of the people with secondary

410

and university education levels also said they had no conditions for self-protection (80 % and

411

83 %, respectively). The proportion of people saying “No” decreases significantly for the group

412

with only elementary education (Table 7). For the people with a job related to forest, 64%

413

mentioned feeling prepared to protect themselves, others and property, whereas only 19% of

414

those with a different professional activity responded affirmatively.

415

These findings point out that younger and more educated people feel more confident with

416

their knowledge on how to act in situations of high fire danger. However, these results change

417

when the question focuses on the protection of people and property. In this case, both

418

illiterate and highly educated people mentioned their inability for an autonomous defense.

419

These results can be associated with dominant wildfire management policies, which have

420

focused on suppression to solve most fire problems (Silva et al., 2010; Tedim et al., 2016),

421

rather than investing in prevention and self-protection. For this reason, people may tend to

422

neglect the importance of their individual role and, instead, attribute the defense

423

responsibilities to civil protection, firefighting and emergency services. In recent years, fire

424

management strategies have shifted toward promoting a stronger community involvement in

425

fire management and reinforcing the importance of improving individual self-protection

426

(McFarlane et al., 2011; Strahan et al., 2018; Tedim et al., 2016), although these are not yet

427

embedded in current practices.

428

The majority of people with jobs related to forest responded as having the ability to defend

429

themselves and property autonomously; indeed, their daily practices provide them with

430

specific skills and knowledge that increase their self-confidence in these matters. The

431

experience with land management practices may also be the reason why nearly half the

432

people with elementary school levels, most being above 50 years old today, said they had the

18

433

ability to protect people and property, unlike more educated (and younger, possibly land-

434

detached) people.

435 436 437

Table 7 - Results of the χ2 test of association between the responses regarding self-protection and the personal characteristics of interviewees Gender Code Q6 Q7

Self-protection with high fire danger Protection of people and property

Education level

Job related to forest

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

0,6855

2

0,7098

23,0844

10

0,0104

39,5399

8

0,0000

4,3760

4

0,3575

14,577

2

0,0007

12,8777

10

0,2306

23,4436

8

0,0028

37,9174

4

0,0000

Protection of people and property, most people not confident • 71% women • 51% men

Main results of the association

438 439

Age group

Question Topic

Self-protection, proportion of people saying Yes decreases with age • 43% >65 years • 73% other age groups

Self-protection, proportion of people saying Yes increases with education level • 70% of illiterate say No • 88% with secondary school level say Yes Protection of people and property, most people not confident • 92% of illiterate say No • 79% with university level say No • 43% of people with elementary level say Yes

Protection of people and property, proportion of people saying Yes increases if job is related to forest • 19% without forest job say Yes • 64% with forest job say Yes

χ2 – value of the Pearson χ2 test; p-value indicates significance of the association; if the p-value is less than 0.05, the difference in the responses related to the personal characteristic tested is significant at 95% level. df – degrees of freedom

440 441

3.3.4 Measures and instruments

442

The answers regarding mitigation measures (Q8) were significantly associated with age and

443

education; most people of all age groups said “No” regarding the application of sufficient

444

measures to mitigate wildfire risk, and the same trend was found for all education levels, with

445

only some people (10 %) with higher education answering positively to this question (Table 8).

446

Although Portugal has many legal instruments and plans to mitigate wildfire risk in WUI areas

447

(Q9), most people said they do not know, a tendency transversal to all personal characteristics

448

(Table 8), although the proportion of “No” is higher for women and for people not working in

449

forest activities.

450

These results indicate a disconnection between the policies and the citizens, particularly

451

relevant when considering the fuel management measures around individual houses,

452

established as mandatory to all property owners since 2006 (Law nº 124/2006 of Jul 28th), and

19

453

reinforced after the extreme fire events of 2017 (Law nr. 76/2017 of Aug 17th). This lack of

454

knowledge and recognition of political instruments that affect them directly could be

455

aggravated by difficulties in understanding and interpreting correctly the legal documents

456

(Carreiras et al., 2014; Montiel-Molina, 2013). The dissemination of these instruments, and the

457

policies and measures therein, should be done with multiple means and using specific

458

communication tools, in order to reach people with different characteristics. As also pointed

459

out by previous studies, distinctive features of local communities with regards to fire incidence

460

may influence their ability to implement required mitigation and self-protection strategies

461

(Carroll & Paveglio, 2016; Oliveira et al., 2017; Paveglio et al., 2016). In the case of women

462

being less knowledgeable than men regarding political instruments, it could be due to the

463

different social roles attributed to them, particularly visible in older age groups, which have

464

made women less active in certain issues and because, overall, women have less support to

465

carry out specific activities, even if their risk perception is high (Paton et al., 2015).

466 467 468

Table 8 - Results of the χ2 test of association between the responses regarding measures and instruments and the personal characteristics of interviewees Gender Code

Age group

Education level

Job related to forest

Question Topic

Q8

Measures to mitigate wildfire risk

Q9

Political instruments

Main results of the association

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

0,9394

2

0,6252

21,5752

10

0,0174

25,7822

8

0,0011

7,1590

4

0,1277

7,4581

2

0,0240

17,3723

10

0,0665

14,4365

8

0,0711

13,4388

4

0,0093

Political instruments Most people say No, higher for women • 72% women • 58% men

Mitigation Measures Higher proportion of No in all age groups. Elderly people (>65 years old) 0% Yes

Mitigation Measures Most people say No, even with higher education • Lower education and illiterate, 0% Yes • People with university level, 10% Yes

Political instruments Most people say No, but proportion of people saying Yes increases if job is related to forest • 18% without forest job • 43% with forest job

469 470 471

χ2 – value of the Pearson χ2 test; p-value indicates significance of the association; if the p-value is less than 0.05, the difference in the responses related to the personal characteristic tested is significant at 95% level. df – degrees of freedom

472

3.3.5 Community engagement

473

For most people in all age groups and education levels, a better informed and prepared

474

community (Q10) is an important condition for mitigating wildfire risk (Table 9). Despite this

475

general trend, 40% of elderly people said otherwise, that a prepared community was not

476

important, a response likely related to the lower ability of older people to intervene in the 20

477

territory (Oliveira et al., 2017), a stronger dependence on external help and their prior

478

experience with smaller and less dangerous fires, that could then be tackled more easily by

479

existing suppression resources. The responses regarding the main contributions of civil society

480

(Q11) were also significantly associated with age and education (Table 9). “Training” and

481

“Prevention” are the predominant categories for most age groups, whereas “Fuel

482

management” and “Community involvement” appear as options in people specifically between

483

36 and 49 years old, and in those with university education. In view of the expected increase in

484

extreme events due to climate change (Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016; Bowman et al., 2017;

485

Carvalho et al., 2011; Lozano et al., 2017) and the subsequent inability of suppression

486

resources to tackle extremely large fires (Fernandes et al., 2016; Tedim et al., 2016),

487

community involvement and preparedness regarding wildfires become even more important.

488 489 490

Table 9 - Results of the χ2 test of association between the responses regarding community involvement and the personal characteristics of interviewees Gender Code Q10 Q11

Age group

Education level

Better informed and prepared community The main contribution of civil society

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

χ2

df

p-value

2,2617

2

0,3228

41,9409

10

0,0000

78,3394

8

0,0000

3,2712

4

0,5135

6,0292

5

0,3034

39,6017

25

0,0320

33,4837

20

0,0298

13,5155

10

0,1963

Prepared community Most people say Yes, but proportion decreases in elderly group (40% say No)

Main results of the association

491 492

Job related to forest

Question Topic

Contribution of civil society Training and Prevention are the predominant categories for most age groups. Fuel management appears mostly in age groups [25-35; 36-49], with 78% of the total responses in this class. Community involvement is more evident for the group aged [36-49], with 48% of the total responses given in this class.

Prepared community Most people say Yes, proportion increases for people with secondary (95%) and university (90%) education levels Contribution of civil society People with lower education respond more “Doesn’t know/respond” • 69% of illiterate • 36% with elementary People with university level present options of Fuel management (27%) and community involvement (21%)

χ2 – value of the Pearson χ2 test; p-value indicates significance of the association; if the p-value is less than 0.05, the difference in the responses related to the personal characteristic tested is significant at 95% level. df – degrees of freedom

493 494

The associations found between individual characteristics and experience with wildfire

495

perception and knowledge were based on a simple approach, using few and straightforward

496

possibilities of response for most questions. This option was preferred, to ensure a clear

21

497

distinction between the responses given directly by the interviewees and to allow testing for

498

potential associations that could be easily interpreted. In further studies, other possibilities of

499

response may be included, depending on the type of analysis defined.

500

Also, the personal characteristics of respondents tested here are not the only ones that can

501

influence their responses, and these shall be considered in future research, such as income

502

level, place of origin and residency (rural or urban), nationality and the importance of wildfire

503

hazard in the country of origin, among others.

504 505

3.4. Implications for wildfire risk management

506

Understanding people’s perception regarding wildfire occurrence and risk is paramount to

507

improve communities’ preparedness and resilience. This perception varies with gender, age,

508

education level and professional activity (related to forest or not). From these results, some

509

patterns can be highlighted, and can eventually be linked to strategies to improve

510

communication, resilience and protection of local people.

511

i.

The wildfire terminology is not consensual, and people are not very familiar with the

512

terms used by the scientific community. The Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) is an

513

example, even among the more educated people the term is rather unknown. The

514

theoretical knowledge of WUI may be one of the factors promoting risk awareness and

515

the activation of self-protection strategies and actions, as current fire mitigation

516

strategies focus on these areas and demand action by local people (land or

517

homeowners); therefore, a common understanding of what the WUI represents must

518

be fostered;

519

ii.

Most people do not know legal instruments and regulations that define wildfire

520

management measures which imply individual or collective action within the

521

community. This reveals a disconnection between the citizens and the legal and

522

political framework that hinders the suitable application of the measures defined;

523

different approaches should be considered to reduce the gap between citizens and

22

524

policies, either by implementing transdisciplinary studies in formal education, or in

525

focused training programmes for other segments of the population;

526

iii.

In most responses, elderly people showed lower confidence in their knowledge about

527

the issues asked, as well as in their ability to protect themselves or to get involved.

528

This indicates the need to focus on specific communication and training strategies

529

tailored to their needs; on the other hand, their experience with land management

530

practices is a valuable asset to improve local prevention and mitigation actions;

531

iv.

Despite the scientific, technical and legal advances regarding wildfire mitigation in

532

recent years, these improvements are not easily transferred to the civil society, due to

533

cultural, institutional or communication practices that are difficult to change. In a

534

context of climate change and more frequent extreme events, mitigation approaches

535

must focus also on improving individual and collective skills to improve self-defense

536

and the relation of residents with the land.

537 538

4. Conclusion

539

This study had the purpose to identify links between people’s personal characteristics and

540

their perception and attitudes regarding wildfire occurrence, a dominant hazard in Portugal.

541

Our findings provided insights on how the characteristics of residents of different wildfire-

542

affected areas can influence their knowledge on wildfire risk and WUI, their perception on self-

543

protection abilities, their awareness of political and operational instruments and their

544

preferences regarding community involvement. Depending on their age, gender, education

545

level and professional activity (related to forest or not), people indicated different perceptions

546

and choices, which should be further investigated and integrated in communication and

547

training actions to increase their efficiency. Despite the differences shown, our findings also

548

allowed identifying similar responses among all segments of the population, particularly

23

549

related to the lack of knowledge of the WUI, a common and precise definition of wildfire risk

550

and the reduced awareness of existing political instruments, even though they strongly rely on

551

individual or collective actions in local communities. Therefore, the apparent disconnection

552

between the policies and the citizen’s needs to be overtaken and decision makers must design

553

efficient measures adjusted to each specific group of population.

554

To improve wildfire management and mitigation, communication must be improved, and a

555

universal terminology should be promoted, as well as a better connection between the citizens

556

and policies and the definition of approaches tailored to people’s conditions and experience.

557

Several communication and awareness options can be devised further on by fire management

558

and civil protection authorities to deal with this issue; on the one hand, improve the

559

dissemination of the WUI concept through accessible means, such as newspapers and public

560

reports, and to different audiences, such as schools. On the other hand, it is possible that

561

people understand what the WUI represents without recognizing the specific term and other

562

expressions could be used instead without compromising the efficiency of communication,

563

although this was not tested in this work.

564

Despite advances in scientific and technical studies, in firefighting strategies and the evolution

565

of legal instruments, wildfire impacts continue to grow and are expected to exacerbate in the

566

future, also due to climate changes. As such, wildfire management must integrate the

567

individuals and the communities, enhance their self-preparedness and put them at the centre

568

of both the problem and the solution.

569

Taking into account that the sample analyzed should not be considered representative of the

570

whole of the country further work should extend the questionnaire to other areas in the

571

country and compare the results, to verify if the trends found in the studied areas are similar in

572

other Portuguese municipalities.

573

24

574

Acknowledgements

575

This work was partially financed by national funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for

576

Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project “People&Fire, Reducing Risk,

577

Living with Risk” (PCIF/AGT-0136/2017) and by the Research Unit UID/GEO/00295/2019.

578 579

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Uncovering the perception of local population regarding wildfires in mainland Portugal

Highlights

• • • • •

Understanding people’s perception of wildfires is crucial to risk management Questionnaires were made to residents of wildfire-affected areas in Portugal Responses are related to age, gender, education level or professional activity Most people don’t know WUI nor the legal instruments that depend on their actions A stronger connection between citizens and policies must be promoted

Dear Prof. Fantina Tedim, Associated Editor The authors of manuscript ID: IJDRR_2019_390, entitled ‘Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics, declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Sincerely, Ricardo Oliveira Sandra Oliveira José Luís Zêzere Domingos Xavier Viegas Oct-12-2019