Urban transport transitions: Copenhagen, City of Cyclists

Journal of Transport Geography 33 (2013) 196–206

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Urban transport transitions: Copenhagen, City of Cyclists Stefan Gössling ⇑ Dept. of Service Management, Box 882, 25108 Helsingborg, Sweden School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Keywords: Command-and-control Cycling Cycle culture Soft policy Urban transport transitions

a b s t r a c t Mobility growth poses considerable challenges to city planners around the world, as it entails problems of congestion, air pollution, and accidents. Many cities have thus sought to increase the share of sustainable transport, and specifically travel by bicycle. However, it appears that measures to foster cycling are often implemented on an ad hoc basis, lacking strategic focus and a more profound understanding of bicycle cultures. New insights can be gained from Copenhagen, Denmark, a selfdeclared City of Cyclists that has made considerable progress towards increasing the share of travel by bicycle, with the political goal to become the ‘‘world’s best city for bicycling’’. In this article, the success, reproducibility and limitations of the Copenhagen bicycle strategy are discussed in an urban transport transitions framework, based on a content- and discourse analysis of the city’s official documents to assess the respective role of market-based, command-and-control, and soft policy measures in encouraging bicycling. Results suggest that soft policies, integrated with command-and-control measures, and the consideration of bicyclist expectations and concerns with regard to perceptions of safety, speed and comfort have been key in achieving high bicycle trip shares. Integrating these in comprehensive planning frameworks appears to be an approach that is more likely to foster bicycle cultures that can result in urban transport transitions. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Most urban agglomerations face problems of congestion and air pollution due to high or increasing levels of individual motorised transport, and in particular car use (Gilbert and Perl, 2008; Stanley et al., 2011). To restructure transport systems is thus high on the agenda of policy makers. In the European Union, the 2011 White Paper Transport (EC, 2011a) suggests that sustainable urban transport systems demand a phasing out of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs), smaller road passenger vehicles, higher shares of collective transport, and urban mobility and infrastructure designs that facilitate walking and cycling (EC, 2011a). However, there is currently limited evidence of urban transport systems becoming more sustainable in significant ways (e.g. Stanley et al., 2011; for case study exceptions see Santos et al., 2010), raising the question as to how transport transitions on a larger scale can be initiated. In this paper, three general mechanisms to achieve changes in transport behaviour are distinguished, including (i) market-based instruments, (ii) command-and-control approaches, and (iii) soft policy measures. Market-based instruments include taxes, subsidies or duties, which affect behaviour because of rising or

⇑ Address: School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden. Tel.: +46 70 4922634, 480 497194; fax: +46 42 356660. E-mail address: [email protected] 0966-6923/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.10.013

declining costs for travel (e.g. OECD, 2009; OECD and UNEP, 2011). Control-and-command instruments, sometimes also referred to as hard policy (e.g. Friman et al., 2012), set standards for products and services as well as behaviour, affecting transport choices through urban design and land use planning, or investments in specific transport infrastructure. Soft policy measures have the objective to support decisions that are more socially desirable, generally relying on the distribution of information on more sustainable transport choices. All of these measures have in common that their success in significantly changing urban transport behaviour has been limited, in the sense of achieving overall reductions in personalised ICE transport, even though individual measures may have been successful. For example, market-based instruments have included taxes for cars, which in the EU have significantly reduced growth rates in car use (Sterner, 2007). Cities like Stockholm and London have had considerable success with the introduction of congestion charges (e.g. Börjesson et al., 2012; Tuerk et al., 2012), and in France, a bonus/malus system for cars based on emission performance has initiated shifts in consumer preferences (D’Haultfœuille et al., 2011). While there are consequently various examples of successful market-based strategies to achieve changes towards urban transport systems as envisioned in the EU 2011 White Paper, there is little evidence that market-based instruments have been used systematically to stimulate significant change in transport behaviour (e.g. OECD and UNEP, 2011).

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Command-and-control measures have included fuel efficiency standards, speed limits, High Occupancy Vehicles (HOV) and bicycle lanes/tracks, as well as infrastructure developments to support specific transport mode choices (e.g. Pucher et al., 2010). Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards have existed in the US since 1975 (Leiby and Rubin, 2004), and EU policy implemented in 2009 has sought to reduce per km CO2 emissions from newly registered automobiles through efficiency standards (Frondel et al., 2011). Fuel standards are essentially considered a success, though energy-efficient car ownership has also been found to lead to fuel economy rebound effects (Greene et al., 1999), i.e. owners of new efficient cars tend to drive more. Such rebound-effects are substantial, and have recently achieved greater attention even in more general contexts (Santarius, 2012). In the context of this article, all infrastructure developments for cyclists, as well as urban designs and layouts that would seek to make cycling more attractive are considered command-and-control measures, even though it may be argued that land use planning can be aimed at incentivising changes in transport behaviour through seductive or suggestive means, and thus be considered soft policy (Allen, 2006; Jensen, 2011). Soft-policy measures focus on facilitating more sustainable transport behaviour through education and information, and may include instruments as diverse as travel policies, personalised travel planning based on software or smartphone apps, information and marketing campaigns, campaigns for alternative transport modes, car sharing initiatives, car co-operatives, tele-/video-conferencing, or shopping from home (e.g. Cairns et al., 2008). Various soft policy campaigns appear to have had success in affecting transport behaviour, though available meta-studies (e.g. Bamberg et al., 2012; Friman et al., 2012) have raised concerns regarding the validity of evaluation results, and it remains unclear whether more fundamental, significant changes in transport behaviour have been achieved through such policies. Though not representing a complete overview, examples as presented above indicate that most market-based, commandand-control, and soft policy measures have had some success in affecting transport behaviour. In absolute terms, however, individual motorised transport volumes continue to grow. For instance, in the EU27, growth in passenger growth (measured in passenger kilometres, pkm) has averaged 1.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, notably including a slight decline in transport volumes in 2009 and 2010 due to the financial crisis in 2008, affecting mostly air travel (EC, 2012). Further growth in transport volumes is however anticipated (e.g. Dubois et al., 2011; OECD and UNEP, 2011). As an example, the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2012) expects a doubling of the global number of passenger cars in the period 2011–2035, and ICAO expects growth in global aviation emissions in the order of 290–670% by 2050 (compared to 2006; EC, 2011b). These developments are in conflict with global greenhouse gas mitigation objectives, as well as sustainable urban transport futures as for instance outlined in the EU 2011 White Paper Transport, calling for more fundamental changes in transport behaviour (Anable et al., 2012; Dubois et al., 2011; Stanley et al., 2011). Specifically, bicycles are increasingly advocated as ideal mobility choices in urban contexts, as they require less area, cause less congestion, contribute to better health, are pollution free, and cause fewer accidents (Heinen et al., 2010; Horton et al., 2007; Pucher et al., 2010).

2. Bicycling in cities The use of bicycles as a transport mode has constantly declined in industrialised countries since 1950, when bicycles were still the most important transport modes (e.g. Agervig Carstensen and

Ebert, 2012). Since then, bicycling has fallen from more than 1400 km per person per year to less than 1000 km on global average (Gilbert and Perl, 2008). Car use, on the other hand, increased since the early 20th century, from virtually car-free environments before 1910 to a global average of 2000 km/person/year driven in the 1990s (Gilbert and Perl, 2008: 66), and an EU27 average of 9490 km/person/year in 2010 (EC, 2012). Table 1 shows the share of trips made by bike in a wide range of cities, indicating that there is huge variation from 1% (London, UK) to 40% (Groningen, The Netherlands). Notably, in virtually all cities listed in Table 1, considerable growth in bicycle use has been reported over the last decades, though in some cases from very low starting points. Shares of bicycle use <1% have been reported for cities including Hong Kong, Warsaw, Sao Paulo, Valencia, Stockholm, Lisboa, Geneva, Rome, and Dubai (in 2001; Gilbert and Perl, 2008). In comparison, car use shares range from 16% (Hong Kong) to 88% (Chicago). While Table 1 thus indicates a renaissance in bicycling in European cities, transitions in other parts of the world continue to favour the car, as shown by Wang (2012), who reports that, referring to the Beijing Transportation Research Centre, bicycle use in the Chinese capital had declined from 63% of all trips in the mid 1980s to 39% of all trips in 2000 and 17% in 2010. Programs and policies to promote bicycling in urban environments have included a wide range of market-based, commandand-control and soft policy measures. Market-based measures mostly seek to reduce ICE-transport – through congestion charges or taxation –, creating better conditions for cyclists as a side effect. Vice versa, command-and-control measures have focused on safety, preferential treatment, and infrastructure development for bicyclists, and have thus been more successful in creating interest in this transport mode. A meta-review of 139 studies (Pucher et al., 2010) suggests that interventions such as on-road bicycle lanes, two-way travel on one-way streets, shared bus/bike lanes, offstreet paths, signed bicycle routes, bicycle boulevards, cycletracks (separated by kerb from other traffic infrastructure), coloured lanes, shared lane markings, bike boxes (also called ‘advanced stop lines’), bicycle phases/traffic signals, maintenance of infrastructure, wayfinding signage, techniques to shorten cyclists’ routes, traffic controls/traffic calming, home zones, car-free zones, complete streets, bike parking, bicycle stations, parking at rail stations, parking at bus stops, bike racks on buses, bikes on rail cars, short-term rental bikes, and showers at workplaces all have had positive impacts on bicycling levels (for an alternative approach to a discussion of bicycle determinants see Heinen et al., 2010). Moreover, while Pucher et al. (2010) suggest that though any individual intervention is likely to increase bicycling levels, these are more effective when introduced in integrated packages, and possibly in combination with measures to restrict car use. Results consequently suggest that both pull and push measures are important,

Table 1 Share of trips made by bicycle and growth rates, various cities. City

Trips made by bike (%)

Growth by period

London, UK Bogota, Columbia Berlin, Germany Paris, France Barcelona, Spain Amsterdam, Netherlands Portland, OR Copenhagen, Denmark Münster, Germany Freiburg, Germany Odense, Denmark Groningen, Netherlands

1.2% (2006) 3.2% (2003) 10.0% (2007) 2.5% (2007) 1.8% (2007) 37.0% (2005) 6.0% (2008) 38.0% (2005) 35.0% (2001) 27.0% (2007) 25.0% (2002) 40.0% (since 1990s)

2000–2008: +99% 1995–2003: +300% 1975–2011: +275% 2001–2007: +150% 2005–2007: +100% 1970–2005: +48% 1990–2008: +445% 1998–2005: +52% 1982–2001: +21% 1982–2007: +80% 1994–2002: +9% 1990–2005: +0%

Source: Pucher et al. (2010).

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the latter also including reductions in parking spaces, high costs of car ownership, or speed limits for cars. Notably, some commandand-control policies such as helmet laws have had negative impacts on bicycle use. Soft policy programs, on the other hand, including trip reduction programs, individualised marketing, travel awareness programs, safe routes to school, and bike-to-work days appear to have had more limited effects on bicycling, and Pucher et al. (2010) conclude that where such programs actually had significant impact, growth in transit use and walking were greater than growth in cycling. Overall, these findings raise the question as to whether soft policy measures have a role in bicycle transitions, or if urban planners should focus on market-based or commandand-control measures. Developments in the Denmark’s capital Copenhagen are studied to gain further insight with regard to these aspects. 3. Methodology Copenhagen is currently in a dynamic urban transition process with a broadly communicated goal to become the ‘‘world’s best bicycle city’’. To gain insight into the Danish capital’s transition process, the following sections present a history of cycling in Copenhagen, and a description of the political goals and indicators used by the City of Copenhagen to measure progress in cycling levels in the period mid-1990s to 2010. As shown in Fig. 1, this overview is followed by an analysis of the measures and instruments implemented to support and foster bicycling in Copenhagen, on the basis of a qualitative research approach based on a thematic content analysis (which measures have been implemented?) and a discourse analysis (how is the implementation of these measures communicated)? To differentiate, the analysis distinguishes (i) market-based, (ii) command-and-control, and (iii) soft policies. In a last step, content and discourse analyses are complemented with two interviews with city planners, and all findings analysed in a transition theory framework. More specifically with regard to the methods chosen, the thematic content analysis identifies all measures that have been implemented to foster bicycling, on the basis of categories (Lacity and Janson, 1994; Bernard and Ryan, 1998). For this purpose, the entire documentation made available on the Internet by the City of Copenhagen – including a total of 10 documents (see reference

Fig. 1. Methodology.

list under ‘‘City of Copenhagen’’) –, is evaluated to identify instruments, measures and policies that represent either command-andcontrol, market based or soft policies. Data collected on this basis is structured to assess the relative importance of the three categories, measured in terms of the number of policies existing in each category. In a parallel discourse analysis of the documents, linguistic strategies are investigated (Gee, 1999; Burman and Parker, 1993), i.e. the language and interpretations used by the City of Copenhagen to support pro-bicycle perspectives. For the purpose of discussion, the analysis uses quotations as examples of the themes that have been identified. As official documents reveal specific discursive strategies i.e. potentially omitting conflicts or attempting to mediate an understanding of a single, unifying discourse on bicycling, the analysis was complemented with two comparative, semi-structured expert interviews involving leading traffic planners at Copenhagen’s ‘Bicycle secretariat’. Two telephone interviews were made to provide background information on developments in Copenhagen from ‘‘within’’, involving a set of broad questions (‘‘In your opinion, which measures to foster cycling have been the most successful?’’, ‘‘Is there resistance to restructuring the city?’’). Interviews were recorded and lasted 40–60 min. Anonymity was offered, but traffic planners suggested to reveal their identities (Annex I). Interviews provide more critical perspectives on the transition process not necessarily in line with official views. The interviews thus serve the purpose to add analytical depth, and to understand potential conflicts and complexities. Analysis was carried out with the purpose to identify confirming/complementary/contradictory viewpoints. All results are discussed in the analysis within a transition management framework, outlining key elements in the Copenhagen model for an urban bicycle transition and critically assessing their broader transferability to culturally and geographically different urban environments.

4. Bicycle use in Copenhagen As virtually everywhere in Europe, the bicycle was the major transport mode in Copenhagen at the turn of the 20th century. During its ‘‘Golden Age’’ (Agervig Carstensen and Ebert, 2012), the bicycle subsequently turned into a means of mass transportation that remained important throughout WWII to the 1950s: only then became cars more widely available in Denmark and their use was no longer restricted due to the rationing of oil, fuel, and rubber (Agervig Carstensen and Ebert, 2012; Gade Jeppesen, 2012). In the 1960s, car use expanded and rapidly surpassed the use of bicycles. However, a renaissance of the bicycle was noticeable already in the 1970s as a result of the oil crisis and economic recession, forcing the city to give up several large urban renewal projects focused on automobility, which ‘‘would have transformed the city radically’’ (Agervig Carstensen and Ebert, 2012, p. 45). Socially important was the fact that many Copenhageners had continued to cycle during the car boom of the 1960s (Gade Jeppesen, 2012). This trend continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s, fostered by new bicycle technology developments, and, in 1995, Copenhagen’s free bike-sharing programme, the first in the world (Gade Jeppesen, 2012). Copenhagen municipality published its first bicycle strategy in 2002 (Cycle Policy 2002–2012), which provided a first comprehensive vision for the development of cycling in the city (City of Copenhagen, 2002). This was followed by various strategy documents, such as the Bicycle Track Priority Plan 2006–2016 (City of Copenhagen, 2009a), and monitored in bi-annually published Bicycle Accounts assessing key performance indicators such as accident risk (e.g. City of Copenhagen, 2006, 2011a). In 2007,

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Copenhagen announced to aim at becoming the ‘‘world’s best city for cyclists’’ in the document ‘‘Eco-Metropolis – Our Vision for Copenhagen 2015’’ (City of Copenhagen, 2007). Specifically, this included the goal to have achieved, by 2015, (i) a minimum of 50% of Copenhageners to commute by bike to their place of work or education, (ii) a reduction of at least 50% in the number of cyclists seriously injured in traffic, (iii) at least 80% of cyclists feeling safe in traffic, and (iv) a new bike-share system, the latter launched as an international design competition. The policy document also included a goal to increase bicycle travel speed by 10% to improve the competitiveness of cycling. In 2011, the city presented its ‘‘Good, Better, Best – The City of Copenhagen’s Bicycle Strategy 2011–2025’’, once more confirming the goal to become the world’s best bicycle city before the end of 2015 (City of Copenhagen, 2011b). This was followed, in 2012, by the document Environmental Balance Sheet for Copenhagen, detailing progress on the various goals (City of Copenhagen, 2012a). According to the Bicycle Account 2010 (City of Copenhagen, 2011a), the city currently has 350 km of cycle tracks, 23 km of cycle lanes, and 43 km of green cycle routes. Cycling as a mode of transport now accounts for 33% of all trips starting and/or terminating in Copenhagen, 35% of all trips to work/education, and 50% of commuting to work/education, including all commuters in the greater Copenhagen area (Fig. 2). The latest Bicycle Account establishes that 84% of all Copenhageners have access to a bike, and 68% cycle at least once a week, which amounts to 1.2 million kilometres travelled by bike each working day. As shown in Table 2, there has been progress on the goals postulated: the number of seriously injured cyclists declined from 252 in 1996 to 92 in 2010, and is set to fall to 59 by 2015. The percentage of cyclists that feel safe has increased from 60% in 1996 to 67% in 2010, with a goal to increase to 80% by 2015. While the percentage of people cycling to work has declined between 2008 and 2010, the number of kilometres cycled on weekdays has increased (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). All other key performance indicators improved as well, with the exception of speed, which declined from an average 16.2 km/h to 15.8 km/h (door to door). The Bicycle Accounts also report bicyclist opinions and perceptions. Motivations for bicycling include convenience, health, cost and lifestyle aspects, the most important being ‘‘it is faster’’ (55%), followed by ‘‘more convenient’’ (33%), ‘‘healthy’’ (32%), ‘‘cheap’’ (29%), ‘‘makes me feel good’’ (26%) and ‘‘a good way to start the day’’ (21%) (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). Notably, environmental concerns have virtually no importance. With regard to the most important motivation, speed, it deserves to be mentioned that even though bicycling is slower at an average 16 km/h than car driving at 27 km/h, downtown values may be different, as there are more red lights and greater congestion. The bike may also be faster even though average speeds are lower, as it takes less time to find parking space. In comparison to public transport, bicycling may also be faster if including waiting times. Furthermore, the Bicycle Account measures bicyclist satisfaction (Fig. 3). Satisfaction with Copenhagen as a bicycle city has increased constantly since 1996, and now has a 94% approval rate. With the exception of the ‘‘condition of cycle tracks’’, ‘‘bicycle parking’’ and ‘‘cycle track width’’, polled aspects have generally seen growing approval rates. Where satisfaction has declined, this is mostly a result of growing bicyclist numbers (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). The city also polls bicyclists with regard to improvements. Safety is a general issue, with two thirds of cyclists (67%) feeling safe in traffic. Of those cyclists reporting to feel unsafe, 58% cite cars as the major cause. The high share is reflected in accident statistics: in 78% of accidents involving cyclists, cars are the counterparts (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). To improve the situation, cyclists demand more space on bicycle tracks (37%), better cyclist

199

Fig. 2. (a–c) Distribution of trips by mode of transport, 2010. Source: City of Copenhagen, 2011a.

road manners (35%), better motorist road manners (34%), more bicycle tracks (rather than lanes, 31%) and a better segregation between cyclists and motorised traffic (29%) (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). Considerable growth in bicycling levels is expected in the future. Fig. 4, which depicts growth in bicycle trips from/to the inner city between 6.00 AM and 6.00 PM on weekdays, shows a steep upward trend in bicycling levels since the 1990s, with a decline in the period 2008–2010 as a result of two harsh winters. An additional 60,000 bicycle trips are expected by 2025. All changes are monitored in Bicycle Accounts, and can be compared to specific goals formulated with regard to (a) the share of trips made by bicycle to work and education, (b) the share of the network that has three lanes, (c) cyclists’ travel time reduction,

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Table 2 Key performance indicators (KPIs) for bicycling.

Percentage that cycle to work or education (%) Seriously injured cyclists (number per year) Percentage of cyclists that feel safe (%) Cycled kilometres (million km per weekday) Cycled km between serious casualties (million km) Cycle speed (km/h) Cycle tracks (km) Cycle lanes (km) Green cycle routes (km) Cycle parking spaces on roads and pavements (1000 spaces)a

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

15

30 252 60 0.93 1.2

30 173 58 0.92 1.8

34 146 57 1.05 2.4

32 152 56 1.11 2.4

302 6 30

307 10 31

323 12 32

36 97 53 1.15 4.0 16.0 332 17 39 42

37 121 51 1.17 3.2 16.2 338 18 41 47

35 92 67 1.21 4.4 15.8 346 23 42 48

50 59 80

294

36 125 58 1.13 3.0 15.3 329 14 37

29

Source: City of Copenhagen, 2011a. a New method of calculation, which is why the figures have been adjusted in relation to the Bicycle Accounts of 2006 and 2008.

5.1. Market-based measures No market-based measures were identified in information materials, with the exception of cycles that may be carried free of charge on urban trains, representing a subsidy to cyclists. Vice versa, comparably high parking fees in the city centre have existed for decades, representing a disincentive to travel by car. 5.2. Command-and-control measures

Fig. 3. Cyclist satisfaction. Source: City of Copenhagen, 2011a.

Command-and-control measures have mostly focused on infrastructure and technical developments to create comfortable bicycling conditions. Due to the wide range of measures identified, these have been further divided in the sub-categories ‘‘physical infrastructure’’, ‘‘comfort and service’’, ‘‘technology development’’ and ‘‘regulation’’. Notably, infrastructure developments appear to have consistently had a starting point in cyclist concerns, i.e. in particular speed and perceived safety. 5.2.1. Physical infrastructure

Fig. 4. Trips numbers on weekdays*. * Number of bicycle trips to/from the inner city from 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM on weekdays. Source: City of Copenhagen, 2011b: 4.

– 40 km of ‘‘green cycle routes’’ (now implemented), with another 60–70 km in planning. – 300 km of ‘‘cycle super highways’’, allowing for high speeds, in collaboration between 18 municipalities (so far about 8 km have been implemented). – New bicycle tracks and curb ramps connecting elevated cycle tracks with roads. – Widening cycle tracks to adjust to greater bicycle flows. – Layout of tracks based on perceptions of safety (pedestrian walk – bicycle track – parked cars – road). – Skewed rubbish bins for cyclists along tracks. – Experimental covers for cargo bikes, replacing parking spaces. – Footrests, so that cyclists do not have to dismount while waiting for green light. Additional bicycle parking facilities.

(d) the percentage of bicyclists feeling secure in traffic, (e) the maximum number of seriously injured cyclists, (f) the share cyclists who find cycle tracks well maintained and (g) the share of Copenhageners who think that bicycle culture positively affects the city’s atmosphere (Table 3). 5. Content analysis The following section analyses materials provided by the City of Copenhagen in terms of the measures/instruments presented in each policy category.

5.2.2. Comfort and service – Green wave for cyclists on designated routes (at 20 km/h). – Bike butlers at five metro stations that lubricate chains, pump up tires (for a limited period of time, no longer maintained). – Options to take bikes on board s-trains (free of charge), local and regional trains, InterCity trains, and harbour busses. The Metro system allows bicycles to be taken on board outside rush hours.

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S. Gössling / Journal of Transport Geography 33 (2013) 196–206 Table 3 Bicycling-related goals in Copenhagen. Modal split for bicycles

2015 (%)

2020 (%)

2025 (%)

Share of all trips by bicycle to work and education in Copenhagen (2010: 35%) Share of the network that has three lanes (2010: 25%) Relative to 2010, cyclists´ travel time is reduced by Percentage of Copenhageners that feel safe cycling in traffic (2010: 67%) Relative to 2005, the number of seriously injured cyclists will fall by Percentage of Copenhagen cyclists who find the cycle tracks well maintained (2010: 50%) Share of Copenhageners who think that bicycle culture positively affects the city´s atmosphere (2010: 67%)

50 40 5 80 50 70 70

50 60 10 85 60 75 75

50 80 15 90 70 80 80

Source: City of Copenhagen, 2011b.

5.2.3. Technology development – LED sensors that warn lorry drivers of approaching cyclists at high-risk intersections (experimental). 5.2.4. Regulation – One way streets and limitation of parking spaces. – Norms for bicycle parking: commercial developments: 0.5 bicycle parking spaces per employee, residential: 2.5 bicycle parking spaces per 100 m2. 5.3. Soft-policy measures Soft policy measures were found to include a wide range of campaigns to create a positive vision of Copenhagen as an Eco Metropolis, specifically addressing bicyclist concerns, individual and societal benefits, and offering participation. As the way in which the municipality communicates its policies is also the focus of the discourse analysis, soft policy measures are presented in more detail in the following sections. 6. Discourse analysis The analysis revealed three major discursive lines, along which the City of Copenhagen develops its arguments for cycling, including (i) a more desirable urban future, (ii) individual and societal benefits, and (iii) opportunities for participation. 6.1. ‘Desirable urban futures’ One predominant aspect of the documents studied is that these strongly associate bicycling with a positive urban vision. Negative depictions, for instance with regard to car driving, or morally underlined claims are nowhere to be found. The choice of photographs includes healthy looking bicyclists – mothers with young children, elderly, people belonging to different religious groups, overweight cyclists, as well as men in business suits –, all moving leisurely or at brisk speeds in different weather situations, conveying the message that bicycling is a cultural norm and pleasurable for everyone. Many photographs also show large numbers of bicyclists, suggesting that bicycling is a mass phenomenon. The brochure ‘‘Good, better, best’’ (City of Copenhagen, 2011b) is introduced with a historical photograph from the 1930s showing vast cyclist numbers on a road free of motorised traffic, reminding readers that Copenhagen has been a bicycle city in the past, while simultaneously offering a vision of what the city might look like again in the future. To support an understanding that there is an equivalent infrastructure development to back up this vision, ‘‘PLUSnet 2025’’ presents a vision that uses wording including ‘Green Routes’ or ‘bicycle superhighways’, also promising improvements along major roads with regard to space, maintenance and safety (City of Copenhagen, 2011b).

The municipality’s materials also use a combination of rational and affective arguments to underline personal and societal benefits of bicycling. Headlines include, for instance, ‘‘Cycling is good business for Copenhagen’’ or ‘‘The cargo bike is the SUV of the Copenhageners’’. One campaign uses the slogan ‘‘I Bicycle Copenhagen’’, written in the renowned ‘‘I love New York’’ design, with a large black I, a bicycle symbol in red, and the black letters CPH – for ‘‘Copenhagen’’ – on a white background. There is also a route-finding website and app with the same name (www.ibikecph.dk). Even messages that seek to remind bicyclists of adequate traffic behaviour are packaged positively, such as rule #1 for bicyclists: ‘‘Spread good karma’’. Two ‘‘karma campaigns’’ by the municipality encouraged bicyclists to show adequate behaviour in traffic, rewarding bicyclists with chocolates. Another notable aspect of discursive strategies is to pro-actively address ‘‘problematic’’ aspects of bicycling, such as adverse weather conditions or safety perceptions. With regard to rain, the major deterrent to bicycling (see also Bergström and Magnusson, 2003), the Bicycle Account (2006: 12) states that: Although 33% of cyclists say that rain is their main reason for not cycling, information from the Danish Meteorological Institute [DMI] may convince sceptics that this is not a major issue. . . . DMI’s fictive character, Cassandra, cycled 498 trips between September 2002 through August 2003 and had to cycle in rain only 17 times. This is the equivalent of 3.5% of the trips cycled or an average of 1 1/2 times per month. Traffic safety is addressed in a similar way, and evidence is presented that risk of injury has declined considerably (City of Copenhagen, 2011a: 2): The present Bicycle Account shows that Copenhagen cyclists feel more secure in traffic than formerly, and with good reason: For every major cyclist casualty, cyclists have biked 4.4 million kilometres, the equivalent of 110 times around the world. Parents feel comfortable sending their children to school by bike and cyclists generally feel secure. Copenhagen is one of the most bike friendly cities in the world. 6.2. Individual and societal benefits Positive outcomes of cycling are also underlined in information materials, focusing on individual (‘‘physically active people live approximately 5 years longer. . .’’) and societal benefits. For instance, ‘‘If the number of kilometres cycled increased by 10%’’, health consequences would be:  The healthcare system would save DKK 59 million annually.  There would be annual savings of DKK 155 million due to reduced production loss.  The labour market would have 57,000 fewer annual days of absence.

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 61,000 extra years of life.  46,000 fewer years of prolonged, severe illness.  25 fewer early retirement pensions annually. (Bicycle Account 2006: 14). Such messages are combined with notions of success: ‘‘Every time the city creates a new cycle track, it results in 20% more cyclists (and 10% less cars) using that stretch’’ (City of Copenhagen, 2011b). To further support change, Bicycle Accounts communicate improvements that have actually been made, creating an image of honesty and transparency, and an interest in the individual’s and society’s economic and health-related well-being. Politically, change is justified in economic terms. For this, a methodology was developed in 2008 to assess costs and benefits of cycling infrastructure construction projects, including factors such as transport costs, security, comfort, branding/tourism, transport times and health (City of Copenhagen, 2009c). The analysis revealed that the net social gain for each cycled kilometre is €0.16, compared to the net social cost of €0.09 per km driven by car. On this basis, cycling infrastructure costs are assessed, showing that these usually give a high rate of socio-economic return, justifying further investments. Societal benefits of cycling are calculated to be in the order of €228 million per year (City of Copenhagen, 2011b).

6.3. Opportunities for participation To involve bicyclists actively in the transition process, various efforts to enhance participation are made. For instance, suggestions

for change can be submitted through the Internet or by mobile phone. For the latter, an app can be downloaded, which identifies the bicyclist’s specific geographical location through triangulation, with an option to make suggestions for improvement. Fig. 5 shows a screen shot of a section of the city map with pictograms such as ‘‘Henvendelse modtaget’’ (‘‘Suggestion received’’) and on-going work by the city to address these (‘‘Udbedring i gang’’ – ‘‘repair in progress’’). Since May 2010 to December 2012, the corresponding website ‘‘Giv et praj’’ (‘‘Tip us off’’) received 1016 suggestions for improvements, 393 of which had been addressed, another 52 being in progress, and 82 in planning. As the city notes, the remaining 489 suggestions cannot be addressed under the ‘‘Tip us off’’ scheme, but are seen to provide input for new cycle tracks or intersection reconstruction (City of Copenhagen, 2011a). The overall goal of this measure is to build a participative platform, and to visualise the power of the individual to influence developments in ‘‘his/her’’ city, ultimately creating Copenhagen bicyclist identities. Participation also means that tourists are involved in the vision of the bicycle city. Visitors are informed that bicycling is a way of life aspired to by all Copenhageners, underlined by the frequent use of ‘‘we’’, ‘‘us’’ and ‘‘our’’ (City of Copenhagen, 2009b: 2), and presented in a way to make Copenhageners proud of their achievements: This never-ending flow of Copenhageners on bicycles is like a symphony of human power, and it’s been forty years in the making. In the 1960’s, this city was just as car-clogged as anywhere else. Visionary decisions were made and the result can be seen all around you. There are few places in the world where the morning rush hour is graced with such poetic motion. [...]

Fig. 5. Map showing received tips and improvements in progress. Symbols read from left to right: ‘‘tip received’’; ‘‘improvement in progress’’; ‘‘fixed’’; ‘‘cannot be fixed’’; ‘‘your tip’’; (second row to the left) ‘‘data collection’’. Source: http://givetpraj.kk.dk/.

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The vast network of safe, segregated bike lanes criss-crossing the city has encouraged us to choose the bicycle. [. . .] The bicycle is not exclusively the domain of small sub-cultural groups. It has become the spiritual property of every citizen and it continues to fulfil the liberating role for which it was intended. Cycling in Copenhagen brings us closer to the life of the city and the people who inhabit it. Your fellow citizens are right there next to you, propelling themselves effortlessly through the urban landscape. We are one with our town on our bicycles. Visitors are also informed that the city was the first in the world to launch a free bike sharing programme, and that cycle taxis have existed for a long time to transport tourists through the city. There is information on bike rentals, and guided tours by bike. Copenhagen is appraised as the City of Bicycles, and its role models are presented humourously: Pictures show, for instance, a ‘‘Copenhagen Soccer Mom’’ (a women transporting her kids in a cargo bike), and a ‘‘Copenhagen SUV’’ (a bike with a cargo area). 7. Transition processes in Copenhagen Transitions are processes in which society changes significantly over comparably short periods of time (Rotmans et al., 2001), reaching new dynamic equilibrium (Smith et al., 2005). Copenhagen is an example of a city that has gone through two bicycle-related transport transitions, reflecting broader changes in Northern European cycling cultures. Agervig Carstensen and Ebert (2012) refer to these as the ‘Golden Age’, i.e. the development of cycling in Denmark and the Netherlands from the 1880s to the 1950s, and, after a period of car dominance, the ‘Renaissance’ of bicycle cultures in the 1970s due to the oil crisis and economic recession. This second transition subsequently saw Copenhagen re-defining itself as a bicycle city. Smith et al. (2005) have suggested that substantive change to a development trajectory is unlikely without some form of internal or external pressure. In the case of Copenhagen, internal pressure to build more cycle tracks grew during the bicycle renaissance period in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the voice of cyclists became increasingly heard in public debates (Interview Niels Jensen, 14.12.2012). This met, in the 1990s, a political ambition to re-design urban transportation systems, advocated by leading figures such as Klaus Bondam, Copenhagen’s Mayor of Technology and Environment in the period 2006–2010, who was nicknamed ‘‘the Bicycle Mayor’’. According to Niels Jensen (Interview 14.12.2012), Bondam formulated many of the policies and strategies for the bicycle city Copenhagen, and he was recognised for his strong will to implement infrastructural change even in the face of resistance. Bondam also had far-reaching ambitions, such as the goal to achieve a 50% share of commuting trips made by bike. Two important preconditions for the re-design of urban space may have existed. First of all an estimated half of today’s bicycle infrastructure already existed since the 1970s, showing that it was possible for cyclists to ‘‘co-exist’’ in large urban agglomerations and that there was an actual demand for this infrastructure (Niels Jensen, 14.12.2012). Secondly, there always existed a ‘‘silent majority’’ of citizens approving of cycling (Marie Kåstrup, Interview 8.10.2013). This allowed the city to subsequently ‘‘treat cycling as any other mode of transport’’ (Kåstrup), and to justify a continuous expansion of the cycling infrastructure, ultimately turning cycles into self-evident transport modes, and cycling into ‘‘normal’’ behaviour. As Jensen (2013) argues, it is exactly this ‘‘normalization’’ of urban cycle mobility that fosters cycle cultures, as it acknowledges cyclists as traffic participants: more often than not, cyclists are unwanted, excluded or made invisible in urban space (Jones and Novo de Azevedo, 2013; Aldred, 2013).

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Furthermore, the normalisation of cycling indirectly considers the experience of urban space as ‘‘mobile sense-scapes’’, i.e. responding to emotional encounters and desires of ‘‘speed, flexibility, zero-friction and overcoming of distance’’ (Jensen, 2013: 224), thereby creating ‘‘an alternative culture of automobility’’ (Vannini, 2009). This shift may now represent ‘‘Copenhagen identity’’ (Jensen, 2013), as also expressed by Marie Kåstrup: ‘‘. . .we talk about Copenhageners, not cyclists’’. These views confirm findings of the text analyses, with documents referring to the identity of ‘‘The Copenhagener’’, who is also, and often primarily, a cyclist.. Transition management also involves integrative and multilevel governance to shape and foster development processes, and the choice of policy instruments based on consensus-guiding visions (Rotmans et al., 2001). In Copenhagen, the vision to become the ‘‘world’s best bicycle city’’ has been communicated strategically as a ‘desirable future’ (cf. Brubaker, 1978), with tangible benefits for the individual and society, i.e. including fast, safe and comfortable transport (individual) and a healthy and prosperous society. As environmental concerns are never mentioned as a motivation for chance, communication is in stark contrast to the dystopic futures often presented in the context of climate change, associating demands to change behaviour with notions of fear and restrictions. ‘‘People don’t feel like saving the world when cycling to work in the morning, they just want to get to work. That is why cycling should be convenient and easy. . . . We try not to make cycling over-complicated’’ (interview Marie Kåstrup, 8.10.2013). As outlined in the discourse analysis, positive, playful and humourous messages are underlying this strategy. In contrast to other studies suggesting that soft policy measures have a limited role in affecting transport behaviour (Pucher et al., 2010), the situation found in Copenhagen would thus suggest otherwise. Notably, all change in transport behaviour in Copenhagen is voluntary, facilitated by infrastructural change. Resistance to restructuring exists, though it is limited: No significant resistance to the reconstruction of the city appears to exist from the Danish car owner organisation. However, sometimes shopowner organisations and citizens are against changes as well as political parties when it comes to a reduction in car parking to make room for cycle tracks on major streets (Niels Jensen. 14.12.2012). The media is perceived to often present critical viewpoints, however. Marie Kåstrup (interview 8.10.2013) points out that ‘‘when you change a city’s layout, someone will always feel to miss out on something’’, and that the debates in the media overlook that 69% of all car owners are positive or very positive to municipalities reducing car traffic. Much of the critical media discourse is thus not founded in public disapproval: There is a discourse all over the world that bicyclists drive like crazy and don’t respect rules. It is a discourse in the media [also in Copenhagen], but when we ask the public, 73% of the people say that bicyclists contribute to better vibes in the city (Marie Kåstrup, 8.10.2013). As noted by Pucher et al. (2010), the attractiveness of bicycling will always be interlinked with the perceived unattractiveness of car driving. In Copenhagen, a few, though far from all possible measures to reduce the convenience and attractiveness of the car (cf. Pucher and Buehler, 2008) have been implemented. Measures included the reduction of the number of lanes for cars, parking spaces, and high parking fees, though road pricing, as well as a toll ring around the inner city – measures that were ready to be implemented –, were ultimately abandoned (Interview Niels Jensen, 14.12.2012). Yet, in cities where the share of

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bicycling increases, anti-car measures can represent a ‘‘democratic’’ process: There are some who think that we are discriminating car owners, but the distribution of road surface is always in favour of someone, so when we give more space to bicyclists, we are actually favouring the majority of transport users (Marie Kåstrup, 8.10.2013). It is currently unclear whether the share of trips made by bike will continue to increase. The City of Copenhagen (2012b: 54) anticipates that it will demand a considerably greater effort to reach the goal of a 50% overall share in bicycle trip numbers by 2015. In the opinion of Niels Jensen (interview 14.12.2012), this goal is unrealistic because moving beyond current bicycle levels demands ‘sticks’, added to the current system of ‘carrots’. Specifically, scrapped plans for a toll ring around Copenhagen are seen as a lost opportunity. Jensen also points out that to change transport infrastructures has become more difficult in recent years, as car ownership in the city is growing. As an example, families are cited, who used to move to the suburbs, but who now have become more attracted by the more liveable conditions in the city. Most families do use bicycles for their daily commuting, but many also have cars, which are mostly employed to visit friends in the weekend or to go shopping. Paradoxically, this creates a situation where demand for parking space increases, even though the share of trips made by car declines. This development is also in conflict with plans to build more cycle tracks (Interview Niels Jensen, 14.12.2012). Yet, coherent bicycle infrastructures are important, as the worst part of a trip affects the perception of the whole trip (Interview Marie Kåstrup, 8.10.2013). This again, has relevance for other aspects, such as safety, as for instance van Duppen and Spierings (2013) emphasise that cyclists develop tactics of manoeuvring and handling chaotic traffic situations, which can include disregarding traffic rules, increasing the risk of accidents. On the other hand, where there is ‘‘flow’’, experiences of cycling will be more positive, reducing barriers to cycling: creating bicycle cultures is thus about the availability of infrastructure, as well as about the perceived quality of this infrastructure (Jungnickel and Aldred, 2013). Where such infrastructure is perceived positively, it represents an important ‘‘trigger’’ (Chatterjee et al., 2013) to take up cycling. This has been confirmed by other studies. For instance, a methodology for the identification of negative spots has been suggested by Snizek et al. (2013), indicating the existence of both positive and negative experiences of cyclists in Copenhagen. Where negative experiences such as interruptions in travel flow, conflict spots or dangers associated with specific locations can be reduced, cyclist identities will be positively influenced. Transport transitions are more likely when they have gained momentum, i.e. when cyclists become more visible in traffic, reaching a critical mass and ‘‘safety in numbers’’ (Jacobsen, 2003). In such a situation, motorists become more sensitive to the needs and rights of cyclists, and where many people cycle, public and political support for more investment in bicycling infrastructure generally increases (Pucher et al., 2010). Transitions also demand cycling to be ‘normal’ and ‘being a cyclist’ to be stigma-free (Aldred, 2013). While for instance Aldred (2013: 252) suggests that ‘‘after 20 years of pro-cycling policy discourse cycling is still not ‘normal’ in the UK’’, the point may have been reached in Copenhagen in the 1990s, when a steep growth period in cycle trip numbers more than doubled trip numbers in 2000–2010, compared to the lowest points in the 1980s. Insights from Copenhagen confirm Pucher et al. (2010), who conclude that bicycle levels are high in countries and cities where infrastructure is extensive, where safety is good, and where

pro-bicycle policies and programs exist (e.g. Pucher and Buehler, 2008; Pucher and Dijkstra, 2003). In the case of Copenhagen, demand for bicycling existed, and has been made more attractive though command-and-control measures in combination with soft policy instruments. This would confirm that transitions involving high bicycle shares are more likely where these can be embedded in prevailing transport cultures (Aldred, 2013), while regime change is more difficult where car cultures dominate. In the case of Copenhagen, positively framed soft policy campaigns have focused on the fostering of social identities approving of bicycle cultures, facilitating a co-evolution of behavioural and infrastructural change.

8. Conclusions Urban transport systems will need to change dramatically over the next 30–40 years to be in line with perspectives as envisioned in the EU’s Transport White Paper (EC, 2011a). The White Paper foresees to ban combustion engines from cities, to introduce smaller vehicles, higher shares of collective transport, and greater shares of walking and cycling. Currently, only very limited changes in this direction are visible. Copenhagen with its vision to become the ‘‘world’s best city for bicycling’’ and its considerable progress in this direction were consequently studied to derive new insights as to how urban transport choices can be influenced and changed. Results indicate that Copenhagen’s situation is different from other urban contexts, as the city has a long-standing cycling tradition dating back to the late 19th century, and because half of the city’s current cycling infrastructure already existed in the 1970s. Results are thus not necessary transferable, as the transport transition has had roots in an existing bicycle culture, and because infrastructure development could be based on an existing network of bicycle tracks and lanes. This made it easier for the city to establish a common vision of Copenhagen as a bicycle capital, and to treat the bicycle as a transport mode equal to the car, in turn justifying investment in bicycle infrastructure and the re-distribution of urban space in favour of the bicycle. Content and discourse analyses of the city’s bicycle documentation show that policies introduced since the 2000s combine a wide range of command-and-control measures – in particular infrastructure development –, and soft policies, the latter focusing on the creation of positive bicycle visions. Infrastructure development includes new cycle lanes, ‘‘cycle super highways’’, widened cycle tracks to accommodate growing cyclist numbers, and additional parking space for bicycles. Soft policy campaigns seek to mediate an understanding that bicycling is fun, faster, comfortable and safe, and associated with tangible personal and societal benefits. Market-based measures have had a less significant role in the urban restructuring process, and are essentially restricted to high parking fees and the free transport of bicycles on trains, i.e. representing an internalisation of environmental costs through charges and subsidies. Progress on widely communicated goals including trip shares, cycle speed, accident numbers and perceptions of safety is measured and communicated in bi-annual Bicycle Accounts. Politically, costs of infrastructure construction are justified on the basis of the calculation of the socio-economic costs of bicycling in comparison to automobility, i.e. also representing a process of internalizing the costs of different transport modes. As a result of these measures and policies, bicycling has seen considerable growth in Copenhagen, with trip numbers more than doubling between the 1980s and 2010s. This may be seen as a genuine urban transport transition, achieved through a combination of policies and measures. First of all, the communication of a clear political vision framed as a desirable urban future

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Annex I: Telephone interviews Jensen, N. Personal Communication. Senior Traffic Planner, Bicycle Secretariat, City of Copenhagen, 14.12.2012. Kåstrup, M. Personal Communication. Project Leader Communications & Strategy, Bicycle Secretariat, City of Copenhagen, 08.10.2013.