Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour to Study Fertility Intentions in Romania

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ScienceDirect Procedia Economics and Finance 10 (2014) 125 – 133

7th International Conference on Applied Statistics

Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour to study fertility intentions in Romania Raluca Caplescua* a

Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Piața Romană nr. 6, Bucharest 010374, Romania

Abstract Fertility intentions are considered an important determinant of behaviour. Using binary logistic regression on a sample of 1851 women aged 18-44 years from the Generations and Gender Survey 2005 wave in Romania, the present paper analyses the factors influencing intentions to have a child on the short-term. The results indicate that age and the number of children already born to a respondent, together with her attitude and the woman’s perception of her significant others’ attitude towards having a birth in the near future are important in determining the odds that a woman will intend to perform the analysed behaviour. Also, the use of contraception plays an important role, but its impact is complex. © 2014 2014 Elsevier The Authors. Published by Elsevier © B.V. This is an open access B.V. article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economicand Studies. Economic Studies. Key words: fertility intentions; the Theory of Planned Behaviour; Romania; logistic regression;

1. Introduction One of the focuses of demographic research in the present is the difference between the intended and the actual number of children. Although for an overwhelming proportion of European countries the average intended number of children has been for a long time around two (OECD, 2010; Testa, 2006, 2012), the actual average number of children is, in many cases, much lower. According to EUROSTAT, only three countries had, in 2011, a total fertility rate above 2.0 (Ireland, Iceland and France), while there were ten countries with a TFR of 1.36 and lower. Although

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +40-725-291-229. E-mail address: [email protected].

2212-5671 © 2014 Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00285-8

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the TFR may be biased by postponement (Haragus, 2008; Sobotka, 2004), there is little doubt that fertility levels are low in many European countries. The demographic change is increasingly more often analysed with focus on micro level fertility intentions and the behaviour they generate. Having the possibility to decide upon their fertility levels allows for the analysis of readiness and desire to have children at various points of the life cycle. A theory which may be employed to study such factors is the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1969; Ajzen, 1991; Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010), used for underlining the link between beliefs and behaviour. Under these circumstances, the main question raised is which factors increase the odds of having children, more precisely, what would determine a woman to have a child on the short term. The present paper aims at focusing on the specific context of Romania in order to shed some light on the mechanisms behind reproductive behaviour by analysing the influence of various categories of factors on fertility intentions. Further the paper is structured as follows: first, a description of the conceptual framework employed is made based on the existent literature on the topic. Next, the data used and the model are specified together with a short description of the sample. Results and final remarks conclude the paper. 2. The Theory of Planned behaviour as a framework for studying fertility intentions The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is the most used framework in the category of behavioural models (Morgan & Bachrach, 2011). The main assumptions of the TPB are that intention is a strong predictor of behaviour and intention may be assessed by evaluating general attitudes, beliefs and preferences. An important feature of the TPB is that it is not discipline-specific, or as its authors call it, it is a ‘content-free’ model of human behaviour (Ajzen, 2011). This gives TPB both advantages and disadvantages. On the positive side, it can be applied to various different domains that study human behaviour, because it is based on assumptions that are common across domains. It also allows for great flexibility in defining the variables to be used and the macrolevel context in which the micro model is developed (Philipov, 2011). On the other hand, the variables must be very carefully chosen and they should either rely on previous research or on alternative models for hypotheses generation, since there are no a priory specifications (Ajzen, 2011; Liefbroer, 2011). According to Klobas (2011), the main issue regarding the usefulness of the TPB concerns the cases in which it may be appropriately used, rather than if it is appropriate to use the TPB and her conclusion is that it should be applied to decisions regarding fertility about which the individual in the target population is likely to have reasoned. The ideas of the TPB have been applied by Liefbroer to various demographic topics, such as leaving home (Billari & Liefbroer, 2007), union formation (Liefbroer & De Jong Gierveld, 1993) and fertility (Liefbroer, 2005). In demography, fertility is seen as the result of rationally taken decisions, based on the assessment of costs and benefits. This, however, does not imply that rational behaviour in the sense of economic rationality is required in order to work within the TPB framework (Ajzen, 2011; Klobas, 2011; Liefbroer, 2011; Philipov, 2011). As both Ajzen (2011) and Philipov (2011) point out, beliefs are subjectively held information, possibly even incomplete and/or biased, but the TPB is not concerned with the process through which the individuals arrive at their beliefs, so whether this is a rational process or not does not affect the results obtained. What matters is how these beliefs shape the attitudes, norms and perception of behavioural control with which the TPB operates, thus also the intention to perform the behaviour. The greater control individuals have on their fertility, ranging from effective contraceptive methods to fertility treatments, combined with increasing social acceptance of choices regarding fertility, renders necessary the understanding of how decisions about childbearing are made (Klobas, 2011) and the impact these decisions have on fertility patterns. Under these circumstances, the occurrence of an unintended birth for example is more likely due to ineffective actual control than to (i)rationality issues (Barber, 2011; Philipov, 2011). In other words, within the TPB framework the focus is on the intention and not on the outcome. Various factors may lead to impeding the individual to behave as they intended. If pregnancy occurs due to ineffective control, the context, as well as the actual behaviour of the individual need to be taken into account. Barber (2011) refers to three possible reasons why the initial intention to avoid pregnancy by using adequate protection may not be translated into behaviour. One of them is sexual arousal, which increases the risk of a person to ‘get carried away’ and put aside the initial intention. Also, it may be that one has a stronger desire to please their

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partner, to bond with them, or they are more inclined towards nurturing, which could imply an unconscious desire to become parent. Individual variation in these characteristics could be used to explain why the intentions of some individuals are more likely to translate into behaviour. The TPB gives best results with short term intentions, which are stable and allow for a more accurate estimation of their realisation. Also, unlike the long-term intentions, their realisation may be assessed easier and it brings valuable information about contemporary childbearing decision-making and its subsequent behaviour. For example, using data from a two-wave panel in four countries, Spéder and Kapitány (2009, 2012) analysed childbearing intentions and their subsequent realisation and were able to classify the respondents into three categories. The first category comprised people who intended to have a child at the moment of the first wave and they gave birth to one until the second interview (‘intentional parents’). A second category was formed by the ‘postponers’, namely those who initially declared they intend to have a child in the two years following the first interview, failed to do so and declared the same intention at the second wave as well. The last category was that of ‘abandoners’, who intended to have a child at the time of the interview or during the subsequent two years, failed to translate their intention into behaviour and declared no such intention at the second interview. In response to Morgan and Bachrach’s (2011) critique that the TPB is a micro-model strongly centred on the individual and poorly incorporating the macro-level context, Philipov (2011) underlines that the concept of ‘belief’ is fundamental for the TPB and that these are inevitably formed within given social influences and through continuous socialisation (Liefbroer, 2011). And since these beliefs are the ones determining the core elements of the TPB, the macro context is automatically accounted for. Moreover, control beliefs are strongly connected with actual control, which in turn is based on enablers and constraints (Klobas, 2011). Thus, changing contexts may either change intentions (and behaviour) through the attitudes, norms and perceptions of behavioural control, or determine the individual to attach them different weights (Liefbroer, 2011). 3. Data used The data comes from the 2005 wave of the Romanian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), which is part of the Generations and Gender Progamme (GGP). The GGP aims to improve the knowledge base for policy-making in the UNECE countries. The nationally representative sample comprises respondents aged 18-74 years and it is designed as a panel of 3 waves by 3 years (Vikat et al., 2006). A sample comprising female respondents aged 18-44 years was extracted from the initial database. Due to the fact that the demographic behaviour of retired women, as well as that of invalid and long term sick ones is different, they were excluded from the sample. Moreover, women who were pregnant, who had no sexual experience and those whose health (or their partner’s) did not allow them to have children were also eliminated from the analysis. The resulting sample comprises 1851 respondents, all of whom are theoretically able to have children. In order to determine what set of factors influences the intention to have a child on the short term, the binomial logistic regression was performed. The category of reference chosen was ‘no’, as this would allow the comparison to highlight the characteristics of women who declared they intend to perform the behaviour. The intention to have a child is influenced by a varied range of factors of demographic, economic, social, psychological or cultural nature. Using the logistic regression these factors may be analysed within the TPB framework in order to obtain the profile of women who are most likely to intend to have a child on the short term (three years). The distribution of women according to each of the independent variables used is presented in Table 1 below, together with the parameter coding used. Most women in the sample live in the rural area, are in their 30s, married and they have already given birth to one or two children. The highest education attained is secondary education, they live in households with low to middle income and are employed. From the point of view of their beliefs system and their attitude towards a new birth, these women believe that the attitude of their significant others is negative and have a neutral attitude themselves, not perceiving much influence from the external environment over their intention to have a child on the short term. Also, only 26% of them declared such intention, which is consistent with the extensive use of contraception.

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Raluca Caplescu / Procedia Economics and Finance 10 (2014) 125 – 133 Table 1. Independent variables used and their codings Parameter coding Type of factor

Categorical Variable

Age group

Demographic Number of children

Marital status

Highest education attained

Social Degree of traditionalism

Type of settlement

Total household income Economic

Activity status

Attitude towards birth in next 3 years

Psychological

Norm regarding birth in next 3 years

Category

Frequency

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

18-24 years

82

0

0

0

0

25-29 years

226

1

0

0

0

30-34 years

306

0

1

0

0

35-39 year

416

0

0

1

0

40-44 years

200

0

0

0

1

no children

184

0

0

0

1 child

479

1

0

0

2 children

436

0

1

0

3 or more children

131

0

0

1

not married

152

0

married

1078

1

up to lower secondary

342

0

0

0

upper secondary

665

1

0

0

post secondary non-tertiary

71

0

1

0

tertiary

152

0

0

1

liberal views

25

0

0

neutral views

619

1

0

traditional views

586

0

1

urban

512

0

rural

718

1

up to 500 lei

257

0

0

0

501-1200 lei

574

1

0

0

1201-1900 lei

283

0

1

0

more than 1900 lei

116

0

0

1

employed

807

0

0

unemployed

35

1

0

inactive

388

0

1

positive

111

0

0

neutral

967

1

0

negative

152

0

1

positive

239

0

0

neutral

407

1

0

negative

584

0

1

no influence

272

0

0

593

1

0 1

External factors influencing birth in next little influence 3 years big influence Behavioural

Used contraception for avoiding pregnancy

365

0

no

240

0

yes

990

1

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4. Factors determining the intention to have a child on the short term In order to see which factors and to what degree they contribute to the formation of short-term childbearing intention, the data was analysed using logistic regression. The synthetic results are presented in Table 2 below. The model is well fitted to the data and it has a correct classification rate of 89.3%, with reasonably high percentages for each of the two categories. Table 2. Significant odds-ratios of women to intend to have a child in the near future Demographic factors

Exp(B)

Number of children (ref.=no children)

Psychological factors

Exp(B)

Attitude (ref.=positive) .163

neutral

.274

2 children

.025

negative

.019

3 or more children

.094

Subjective norm (ref.=positive)

25-29 years

.929

30-34 years

.571

35-39 year

.178

40-44 years

.099

Exp(B)

Using contraception (ref.=no)

1 child

Age group (ref. 18-24 years)

Behavioural factors

neutral

.205

negative

.054

yes

.408

Values in bold are significant at the 0.05 level. The first thing to be noted is that social and economic characteristics of the respondent have no significant impact on her intention formation process, and neither does the perception of respondents regarding the influence of external factors. Also, the marital status, which exerts an important influence on the number of children, looses importance when it comes to intentions. As mentioned earlier, it is important to make a distinction between intention and behaviour, both when it comes to intention to obtain a certain outcome, such as having a child, and intention to behave in a certain way in order to obtain the intended outcome. Further, the focus will be on the significant results obtained. 4.1. Number of children The odds of a woman intending to have a child decrease with the number of children she already has. Thus, it is most likely that a childless woman intends to have a child, while women who already gave birth once are 6.1 times less likely to intend to repeat the experience during the three years following the interview (2005-2008). Given that the data indicate 1-2 children as a norm, with a bias towards the lower end, it is not surprising that mostly women with no children are the ones who intend to have one on the short term. 4.2. Age of the respondent The second demographic factor that influences fertility intentions is the age the respondent had at the time of the interview. The odds that a respondent aged 35 years or more intends to have a child in the near future are significantly smaller than those of a younger woman, namely she is 5.6 times less likely to express such an intention if she is aged between 35 and 39 years and 10.1 times less likely if she has 40 years or more. Intentions of women younger than 35 years do not seem to be significantly different, regardless of the age group they belong to. It is possible that as they approach the upper limit of the specified interval they are less inclined to intend to have a child on the short term, especially in the case of women in the middle group, but the data does not definitely support such an assumption. On the other hand, given the very high significance values for the parameter

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corresponding to women aged 25-29 years, the likelihood that women in the first two age group have practically the same odds with regard to short term intention is also high. Therefore, it may be assumed that voluntary childlessness is not spread among women in Romania in 2005, women manifesting intentions of childbearing for the short term until the age of 29, and to a lesser extent, even before 35 years. If women in the third group most likely already have at least one child, women in the first age group are probably childless, while among women in the middle group there are both women who have children, and women who do not. This supports the 1-2 children norm assumption. 4.3. Attitude towards having a birth in the next 3 years Intention to have a child in the short-term is strongly dependent on a positive attitude of the woman towards her having a birth, as a woman with neutral attitude is 3.6 times less likely to express an intention to have a child, while women who believe a birth in the near term will have a negative impact on their lives are 53.6 times less likely to intend to obtain such an outcome. These results underline the relationship between intentions and the process of their formation. However, it is not the purpose of the present analysis to go into further details regarding this issue. Thus, it suffices to say that, given the strong predictive power of intentions on behaviour (Golovlyanitsina, 2007; Liefbroer, 2005, 2011; Philipov, 2009, 2011; Spéder & Kapitány, 2009, 2012), the attitude a woman has towards the impact a possible short term birth would have on her life is an important factor in the decision making process. 4.4. Attitude of the significant others towards the woman having a birth in the next 3 years The results obtained are similar to those for the woman’s own attitude, namely women most likely to express an intention for short-term childbearing are those who perceive a positive attitude from her significant others. In other words, if the woman feels she has the support of her partner, her parents and her friends, she is likely to form an intention to have a child in the near future. Also, is it also possible that a perception of positive norm exerts certain pressure on the woman, thus leading to the same intention, but for different reasons. Conversely, if she feels that her significant others, on whom she will most likely rely for help in childrearing in the event of a birth, are against her having a child, the odds of her expressing such intention are 18.5 times smaller. An interesting aspect to be noted here is that, although subjective norm plays an important role in the intention formation process, it is much less influential than the impact a woman believes birth will have on her life. 4.5. Use of contraception Women using contraceptive means are 2.5 times less likely to express an intention of childbearing. However, aspects relating to planning of a birth, especially for timing-related issues and type of contraception used, need to be considered here. The distribution of women in Figure 1 suggests that few women who are not using contraception intend to have a child in the next 3 years or want to have one at the time of the interview. More interesting conclusions arise from the distribution among women who intended to give birth until 2008. As indicated by the preliminary analysis, there is a large share of women who use contraception among those who declared intention of childbearing in the short term. However, deepening the analysis, shows that more than half of these women want to have a child rather towards the end of the 3 year period than in its first part, while among those not using contraception, almost three quarters are planning to give birth sooner rather than later.

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Fig. 1. Distribution of women by intention to have a child in the next 3 years, desire to have a child at the time of the interview and their contraceptive behaviour

There still remains a category of women who are contracepting, despite having expressed both intention and desire to have a child soon. Although the analysis did not focus on the type of contraception to which women resort to, the database does allow for studying contraception from this perspective. As may be seen in Figure 2, most women who are not using contraception want to have a child as soon as possible, while among the others, the most frequently used methods are condoms, pills and the safe period method, and to a lesser extent, intra-uterine devices and withdrawal. With the exception of oral contraception, all other methods for conception theoretically immediately after stopping to use them (the safe period method and withdrawal even pose the risk of pregnancy while using them). For the women using pills, conception may occur within few months since they are not administered, depending on the organism and the duration of treatment.

Fig. 2. Distribution of women who intend to have a child by desire to have a child at the time of the interview and contraceptive means used

Therefore, the fact that there are women in the sample who declared they intend to have a child during the next 3 years and who use contraception, their current behaviour is not likely to have a negative impact on acting towards having a child. In other words, the fact that these women were resorting to contraception at the time of the interview does not hinder the odds that they will transpose their intention into practice. 4.6. Profile of the respondents according to their intention to have a child in the short-term Starting from the results obtained, the profile of women who intend to have a child in the 3 years following the interview may be drawn. Thus, the women most likely to express such an intention are young, aged up to 35 years, but most likely in their 20s, and with no children. They believe a birth will bring benefits to her life in the sense of enhancing her joy and the satisfaction she gets from life, of improving the relationship with her partner and her parents, but also adding value to her social status in a context where children are still valued and the accent is on their emotional rather than economic role in the life of an individual. Furthermore, women intending to have a child on the short term feel that they benefit from the support of her significant others, thus being able to count on their help with the child, once it is born.

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The relationship between their stated intention and their actual behaviour regarding contraception does not suggest, in the case of women resorting to contraceptive means, an incompatibility between the two. Moreover, it is less likely that they are resorting to such measures. 5. Final remarks Qualitative studies made on the intention to have children indicate a strong detachment from the childless model in more traditional countries, such as Poland (Matysiak & Mynarska, 2010; Mishtal, 2009; Mynarska, 2009), while for countries more advanced on the path of the ‘Second Demographic Transition’, the situation is different, but there are also various models (Brachet, Letablier, & Salles, 2010; Salles, Rossier, & Brachet, 2010). In France, supportive measures for working parents and a variety of affordable childcare options have not allowed a so called ‘culture of childlessness’, on the contrary, fertility revolves around the replacement level. On the other hand, in Germany a degree of voluntary childlessness was found. The authors explain this by the traditional-oriented family institutions, as well as the gender bias in favour of mothers in case of divorce, in a context with high divorce rates. Although the results for Italy are similar to those for Germany, the motivations behind the decision to remain childless differ substantially. Difficult access of youth to the labour market, especially for young women, combined with an important degree of traditionalism regarding gender roles, generates a strong conflict between the status of mother and that of employee. The results of the present analysis indicate that Romanian behaviour is closer to that in Poland, rather than in the countries more advanced on the path of the Second Demographic Transition. The influence of already born children and age of the respondent found on the intention of a woman to have a child is in accordance with the literature: younger and childless women are more likely to express childbearing intentions. On the other hand, the psychological and the behavioural factors that significantly influence the intention to have a child may lead to important conclusions regarding the pronatalist measures that could be taken in order to avoid damage to the age structure of the population and irreversible population decline (Lutz, Skirbekk, & Testa, 2006). Such areas should target promotion and stimulation of family as the key agent in the society and the economy, while decreasing uncertainty. Also, the emerging trends regarding demographic behaviour (postponement of marriage and childbearing, increasing time spent in education, greater desire to have a career etc.) should not be fought, but integrated into the system through adaptation and by finding solutions that would make them simulative, rather than negative factors. Acknowledgements The work on this study was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/77213 „Ph.D. for a career in interdisciplinary economic research at the European standards”. References Ajzen, I. (1991). The Theory of Planned Behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179–211. Ajzen, I. (2011). Reflections on Morgan and Bachrach’s critique. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 9, 63–69. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2011s63 Ajzen, I., & Fishbein, M. (1969). The Prediction of Behavioral Situation Intentions in a Choice. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 5, 400–416. doi:10.1016/0022-1031(69)90033-X Barber, J. S. (2011). The Theory of Planned Behaviour: considering drives, proximity and dynamics. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 9, 31–35. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2011s31 Billari, F. C., & Liefbroer, A. C. (2007). Should I stay or should I go? The impact of age norms on leaving home. Demography, 44, 181–198. Brachet, S., Letablier, M., & Salles, A. (2010). Devenir parents en France et en Allemagne: normes, valeurs, représentations. Politiques sociales et familiales, (1), 79–92. Retrieved from https://www.caf.fr/sites/default/files/cnaf/Documents/Dser/PSF/100/PSF100-1-SBrachet MTLetablier et SSalles.pdf Davidson, A. R., & Morrison, D. M. (1983). Predicting contraceptive behavior from attitudes: a comparison of within- versus across-subjects procedures. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 997–1009. Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (2010). Predicting and changing behavior. Psychology (Vol. 3, p. 79).

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