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Visions for the 21st century
106
BOOK
REVIEWS
Futures:
hard and soft publishing
Richard
A. Slaughter
Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future Brian Burrows, Alan Mayne and Paul Newbury 442 pages, London, Adamantine Press, 1991, Pb f 15.95 Inventing the Future: Reflections on Science, Technology and Nature David Suzuki 256 pages, London, Adamantrne Press, 1991, Pb f 14.95 (Reprint)
The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come Warren Wagar lY2 pages. London, Adamantrne Press, 1991, Pb f 13.95 (Reprint)
Visions for the 21st Century Sheila Moorcroft (editor) 170 pages, Pb f 14.95
I ondon,
Adamantine
Press, 1992,
Adamantine Press is to be congratulated for seeing the potential in a linked series of futures books and for pursuing this growing market with energy and flair. It has assembled an impressive international board and, with the irrepressible Jeremy Ceelan at the helm, looks set to dominate this underdeveloped market niche for some time to come. However, Adamantine will have to be more careful in its selection of material. One of the present
Rick Slaughter can be contacted at Futures Study Centre, 62 Disraeli Street, Kew, Victoria 3101, Australia (Tel: (613) 853 78821, or at Dept of Policy, Context and Evaluation, Institute of Education, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia (Tel: (6131 344 8662; fax: (61 3) 344 8204; e-mail Internet: Rick_Slacrghter((I muwayf.unimelb.edu.au).
quartet is not a futures book at all. Suzuki’s volume was originally published in Canada in 1989. It is a collection of weekly newspaper columns from The Toronto Star. So, while some of the pieces are occasionally brilliant-the good-and book overall is scrappy and unsatisfying. I have two major problems with it. One is a dislike of this writer’‘’ polemical style. Some of the early futures literature became a liability precisely due its self-righteousness, its moral to tendency to preach and its over-confident tone of urgent warning. Thus, while many of the things Suzuki says are true enough, I find his mode of discourse rather dated. The other problem is that I am weary of endless rehearsals of ‘the problem’. At this late stage most people have some awareness of environmental issues, so it is more productive to focus on solutions: on social innovations, strategies, new ways of conceptualizing the world beyond industrialism. But there are few such pointers here. The one potentially positive chapter dealing with ‘What educators can do’ is disappointing. Significantly, it makes no mention whatever of the work carried out over two-and-a-half decades by futures educators writer
around they For
and
the
world.
Plainly,
for
this
do not exist.
me Suzuki
depressing
is a gadfly, to
boot.
an irritant,
He
is
very
his overheated message many times before, and feel that understatement is far more effective. At best he has a minor educative role. At worst he is an over-hyped media personality who has surprisingly little of substance to say about futures. The title of this book is pure hokum. It might be more accurately called ‘Suzuki’s views on just about everything’! It may be acceptable as opinionated.
But I’ve heard
FUTURES January/February
1993
Book reviews
polemic, as diatribe, but a futures book it is not. Into the 27st Century is a different kettle of fish. It is divided into three parts: ‘Approaches to current problems’, ‘New paradigms’, and ‘Future scenarios’. As may be seen, it covers a wide range of concerns. However, it does so thoroughly and well. I do not recall having seen another book which summarizes so much relevant material in such a limited space. Careful attention has been given to providing readers with access to other sources. There is a comprehensive annotated bibliography as well as sections on ‘exploring further’ at the end of each chapter. Both provide useful references and conceptual maps of specific areas. The book will therefore be particularly useful to students and others who wish to look into aspects of the ‘global problematiqucl”. It is a very useful handbook and guide to its subject. The Next Three Futures, by Warren Wagar, suffers a bit from having been written from within a North American mindset. For example, he speaks of research being ‘contaminated’ by ‘values, feelings, ideas and interests’ thereby dismissing the critical/hermeneutic practice of regarding them as highly useful (albeit unreliable) resources. in fact, as is common with much American writing, the book misses the critical dimension completely and even regrets that futurists are not better at prediction than they are. The assumed link between futures work and prediction perpetuates an unfortunate stereotype. But, having said this, Wagar is clearly well placed to write about the future. He is one of that select band actually to have taught tertiary courses on futures for nearly 20 years. Moreover he is a historian, with a special interest in H.C. Wells. So Wagar’s account of ‘technoliberal’, ‘radical’ and ‘countercultural’ outlooks provides a stimulating and useful framework for considering the near-term future. Again (and my own bias is certainly involved here) I do not favour an extrapolative ‘the future of _’ approach which heads four of the later chapters. These deal with the earth, wealth and power, war and peace, and living. Yet some cogent observations are made in these chapters. I particularly noted his point that
FUTURES ~anua~/February
1993
107
futurists often tend to dismiss questions about future conflicts. The best part of the book is the conclusion, which is frustratingly brief. However, it is one of the most effective pieces of visionary futures writing I have ever seen. Finally, VLGons for the 21~ Century, is a compendium of 21 short pieces by some well known, and some not so well known writers. It also contains a few surprises, such as Vaclav Have1 (writing before he lost power) and Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan. There are several outstanding essays. Those by Hama, Harman and Ogilvy are particularly worth mentioning. It is one of the strengths of this book that the essays are written from many different points of view. Yet the text coheres. It does more. By approaching the subject from a variety of angles Visions for the 27st Century makes a powerful impact. Almost as a side-effect, it exposes the intellectual bankruptcy of the view that ‘the future’ is merely an ‘empty category’. So the richness of the futures enterprise permeates these pages and captures one almost unawares. This is rare, but not surprising-it is a seductive enterprise; the book and the field. If anyone were to ask me where to begin, I would have no hesitation in saying ‘begin here, or with fnto the 27st Century’. If one were already a well-grounded futurist (as many readers of Futures wili be), read Visions. anyway. it is by far the best of this quartet. It remains to be seen how this bold new venture will fare in the cold economic climate of the 1990s. However, Adamantine Studies on the 21st Century (the thematic title of the series) deserves to be taken seriously. The books provide a timely resource which should be well within the range of students, academics and the general public. With the qualifications noted, I heartily recommend them. I do wish the covers looked a bit more attractive-the original ones are very dull. But then, it’s early days. According to the latest publicity in my possession another 10 volumes are on the way. If the covers can be improved and overall quality control maintained they will do much to open out the futures area as a substantive publishing category. This would be a real achievement.
BOOK
REVIEWS
Futures:
hard and soft publishing
Richard
A. Slaughter
Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future Brian Burrows, Alan Mayne and Paul Newbury 442 pages, London, Adamantine Press, 1991, Pb f 15.95 Inventing the Future: Reflections on Science, Technology and Nature David Suzuki 256 pages, London, Adamantrne Press, 1991, Pb f 14.95 (Reprint)
The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come Warren Wagar lY2 pages. London, Adamantrne Press, 1991, Pb f 13.95 (Reprint)
Visions for the 21st Century Sheila Moorcroft (editor) 170 pages, Pb f 14.95
I ondon,
Adamantine
Press, 1992,
Adamantine Press is to be congratulated for seeing the potential in a linked series of futures books and for pursuing this growing market with energy and flair. It has assembled an impressive international board and, with the irrepressible Jeremy Ceelan at the helm, looks set to dominate this underdeveloped market niche for some time to come. However, Adamantine will have to be more careful in its selection of material. One of the present
Rick Slaughter can be contacted at Futures Study Centre, 62 Disraeli Street, Kew, Victoria 3101, Australia (Tel: (613) 853 78821, or at Dept of Policy, Context and Evaluation, Institute of Education, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia (Tel: (6131 344 8662; fax: (61 3) 344 8204; e-mail Internet: Rick_Slacrghter((I muwayf.unimelb.edu.au).
quartet is not a futures book at all. Suzuki’s volume was originally published in Canada in 1989. It is a collection of weekly newspaper columns from The Toronto Star. So, while some of the pieces are occasionally brilliant-the good-and book overall is scrappy and unsatisfying. I have two major problems with it. One is a dislike of this writer’‘’ polemical style. Some of the early futures literature became a liability precisely due its self-righteousness, its moral to tendency to preach and its over-confident tone of urgent warning. Thus, while many of the things Suzuki says are true enough, I find his mode of discourse rather dated. The other problem is that I am weary of endless rehearsals of ‘the problem’. At this late stage most people have some awareness of environmental issues, so it is more productive to focus on solutions: on social innovations, strategies, new ways of conceptualizing the world beyond industrialism. But there are few such pointers here. The one potentially positive chapter dealing with ‘What educators can do’ is disappointing. Significantly, it makes no mention whatever of the work carried out over two-and-a-half decades by futures educators writer
around they For
and
the
world.
Plainly,
for
this
do not exist.
me Suzuki
depressing
is a gadfly, to
boot.
an irritant,
He
is
very
his overheated message many times before, and feel that understatement is far more effective. At best he has a minor educative role. At worst he is an over-hyped media personality who has surprisingly little of substance to say about futures. The title of this book is pure hokum. It might be more accurately called ‘Suzuki’s views on just about everything’! It may be acceptable as opinionated.
But I’ve heard
FUTURES January/February
1993
Book reviews
polemic, as diatribe, but a futures book it is not. Into the 27st Century is a different kettle of fish. It is divided into three parts: ‘Approaches to current problems’, ‘New paradigms’, and ‘Future scenarios’. As may be seen, it covers a wide range of concerns. However, it does so thoroughly and well. I do not recall having seen another book which summarizes so much relevant material in such a limited space. Careful attention has been given to providing readers with access to other sources. There is a comprehensive annotated bibliography as well as sections on ‘exploring further’ at the end of each chapter. Both provide useful references and conceptual maps of specific areas. The book will therefore be particularly useful to students and others who wish to look into aspects of the ‘global problematiqucl”. It is a very useful handbook and guide to its subject. The Next Three Futures, by Warren Wagar, suffers a bit from having been written from within a North American mindset. For example, he speaks of research being ‘contaminated’ by ‘values, feelings, ideas and interests’ thereby dismissing the critical/hermeneutic practice of regarding them as highly useful (albeit unreliable) resources. in fact, as is common with much American writing, the book misses the critical dimension completely and even regrets that futurists are not better at prediction than they are. The assumed link between futures work and prediction perpetuates an unfortunate stereotype. But, having said this, Wagar is clearly well placed to write about the future. He is one of that select band actually to have taught tertiary courses on futures for nearly 20 years. Moreover he is a historian, with a special interest in H.C. Wells. So Wagar’s account of ‘technoliberal’, ‘radical’ and ‘countercultural’ outlooks provides a stimulating and useful framework for considering the near-term future. Again (and my own bias is certainly involved here) I do not favour an extrapolative ‘the future of _’ approach which heads four of the later chapters. These deal with the earth, wealth and power, war and peace, and living. Yet some cogent observations are made in these chapters. I particularly noted his point that
FUTURES ~anua~/February
1993
107
futurists often tend to dismiss questions about future conflicts. The best part of the book is the conclusion, which is frustratingly brief. However, it is one of the most effective pieces of visionary futures writing I have ever seen. Finally, VLGons for the 21~ Century, is a compendium of 21 short pieces by some well known, and some not so well known writers. It also contains a few surprises, such as Vaclav Have1 (writing before he lost power) and Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan. There are several outstanding essays. Those by Hama, Harman and Ogilvy are particularly worth mentioning. It is one of the strengths of this book that the essays are written from many different points of view. Yet the text coheres. It does more. By approaching the subject from a variety of angles Visions for the 27st Century makes a powerful impact. Almost as a side-effect, it exposes the intellectual bankruptcy of the view that ‘the future’ is merely an ‘empty category’. So the richness of the futures enterprise permeates these pages and captures one almost unawares. This is rare, but not surprising-it is a seductive enterprise; the book and the field. If anyone were to ask me where to begin, I would have no hesitation in saying ‘begin here, or with fnto the 27st Century’. If one were already a well-grounded futurist (as many readers of Futures wili be), read Visions. anyway. it is by far the best of this quartet. It remains to be seen how this bold new venture will fare in the cold economic climate of the 1990s. However, Adamantine Studies on the 21st Century (the thematic title of the series) deserves to be taken seriously. The books provide a timely resource which should be well within the range of students, academics and the general public. With the qualifications noted, I heartily recommend them. I do wish the covers looked a bit more attractive-the original ones are very dull. But then, it’s early days. According to the latest publicity in my possession another 10 volumes are on the way. If the covers can be improved and overall quality control maintained they will do much to open out the futures area as a substantive publishing category. This would be a real achievement.