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Visions of sustainability
Futures 1994 26(2)
115-116
VISIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY introduction Michael Marien
Environmentalism has been growing ever stronger over the past few decades. ‘Sustainability’, however, has rapidly emerged only in the past five years as a commonly held objective for those concerned with population/resource/environment issues and futures in general. It is obvious to anyone who has thought about these issues that humankind’s present destructive relationship with its natural environment cannot continue. And there is thus a growing crescendo of calls to move away from simplistic industrial-era thinking towards ecosystems thinking, sustainable development, sustainable agriculture, sustainable society, and, in general, a sustainable future. Indeed, if we are to have a future, how can it be anything other than sustainable? This special issue of Futures has two purposes. First, we seek to bring together the latest thoughts of some leading thinkers on sustainability issues, to push this thinking forward by a few notches, and to illustrate the complexities involved in what appears to be a profound and necessary multifold transition, now just under way. The second purpose is to confront those futurists who have yet to incorporate sustainability matters into their thinking. If ‘futures studies’ are to be more than just a loose scatteration of futures-related ideas, as often appears to be the case, such studies ought to employ key concepts such as ‘sustainability’, as argued in the April 1993 special issue of Futures on ‘The knowledge base of futures studies’. Yet many ‘futurists’ who ought to premise their thinking on the long-range global population/ resources/environment problematique make no reference at all to these matters. For example, consider the July-August 1993 special issue of Futures on ‘The future of industrialization’, which has no reference, to any degree, to any of the facts about burgeoning human populations, destructive technologies, and defective notions of ‘progress’ and economic accounting. Is this intellectually and morally adequate? I think not. If concerns for sustainability are not relevant or overstated, the argument should be explicitly made. But the argument for perpetuating the industrial era has not been made since the days of Herman Kahn, who died more than a decade ago. And sticking one’s head in the sand has never been an acceptable method, even for a college freshman. Why, then, should it be tolerated among futurists?
Michael Marien is Editor of Future Survey and can be contacted at 5413 NY 13084, USA (Tel: + 1 315 677 9278; fax: t- 1 315 677 92481.
FUTURES
March 1994
0016-3287~94~0~011
S-02 @ 1994
Webster
Road, LaFayette,
Butterworth-Hein~mann
Ltd.
1 16
Visions
of sustainabi/ity
These essays were written by members of HOLIS: The Society for a Sustainable Future-a small network of largely North American scholars and activists that seeks to advance thought and action on sustainability-related matters. Founded in early 1992 by Lester Milbrath, Michael Marien, Doug McKenzie-Mohr, and others, information on membership is available from any of ‘The Three MS’. With the exception of the essays by Sally Lerner and Duane El&n, all the contributions are based on presentations at the World Future Society’s Seventh General Assembly, held in Washington in late June 1993. Several of these contributions (Olson, Dahlberg, Corson, Pirages, McKenzie-Mohr, and Marien) were also presented in a revised form at a conference on ‘Footsteps to sustainability’ arranged by Dennis Pirages and held at the University of Maryland and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in late October 1993. The conference proceedings will be published in late 1994 or in 1995. These essays are arranged in two broad categories. The first section, ‘Key elements of sustainability’, focuses on many (but not necessarily all) major aspects of a sustainable society. Lester Milbrath leads off by pointing out the inadequacies of the ‘dominant social paradigm’ (DSP) and the societal imperatives of the ‘new environmental paradigm’ (NEP). Hazel Henderson follows with an explanation of the broader set of social indicators that would be used by any society concerned with sustainability. The key concern of stabilizing human population remains as a major issue, albeit one that is all too often ignored. As Virginia Abernethy points out, the USA is the fastest growing industrialized country, and may well be sending the wrong signals to the rest of the world. Her distinctive view on population is followed by two papers that both elaborate on the I = PATformula, whereby impacts are the result of population times affluence times technology. Robert Goodland, Herman Daly and John Kellenberg, all from the World Bank, consider the startling message of I = PAT, and then list imperative priorities for both high- and low-income nations. Robert L. Olson considers how I = PAT would grow under three scenarios of ‘Continued and ‘Social transformation’. (The last two growth’, ‘Technology transformation’, essays, by Duane Elgin and Michael Marien, also employ a trio of scenarios.) Kenneth A. Dahlberg elaborates on the necessary transition from industrial-era agriculture to regenerative and sustainable food and fibre systems. Mary E. Clark points to the necessity of addressing basic human needs such as genuinely shared meaning. Sally Lerner focuses on the basic need of any sustainable society to seriously consider work, employment and income distribution. The five essays in the second section, ‘Moving towards sustainability’ focus on theproblemsand possibilitiesoftakingact~on. Dennis Piragesconsiderssustainabil~ty as an evolving process, requiring something on the order of a ‘sociocultural genome project’. Walter H. Corson provides specific outlines of needed changes, barriers to change, general strategies, specific agents of change, and how to monitor progress through indicators of sustainability. Doug McKenzie-Mohr moves further down to the micro level, discussing the fine points of promoting residential energy conservation. Moving back to the far reaches of the macro level, Duane Elgin offers an integrated vision of our evolutionary journey toward a sustainable species-civilization, viewing us in the midst of seven major stages of development. Elgin suggests the possibility of arrested development in his ‘dynamic stagnation’ scenario, as does Michael Marien in theconcludingessay that explores the key barriers of infoglut and competing problems. In sum, it is hoped that these articles inform and provoke. Our future, if we are to have one, must be sustainable. The only questions are when and how.
115-116
VISIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY introduction Michael Marien
Environmentalism has been growing ever stronger over the past few decades. ‘Sustainability’, however, has rapidly emerged only in the past five years as a commonly held objective for those concerned with population/resource/environment issues and futures in general. It is obvious to anyone who has thought about these issues that humankind’s present destructive relationship with its natural environment cannot continue. And there is thus a growing crescendo of calls to move away from simplistic industrial-era thinking towards ecosystems thinking, sustainable development, sustainable agriculture, sustainable society, and, in general, a sustainable future. Indeed, if we are to have a future, how can it be anything other than sustainable? This special issue of Futures has two purposes. First, we seek to bring together the latest thoughts of some leading thinkers on sustainability issues, to push this thinking forward by a few notches, and to illustrate the complexities involved in what appears to be a profound and necessary multifold transition, now just under way. The second purpose is to confront those futurists who have yet to incorporate sustainability matters into their thinking. If ‘futures studies’ are to be more than just a loose scatteration of futures-related ideas, as often appears to be the case, such studies ought to employ key concepts such as ‘sustainability’, as argued in the April 1993 special issue of Futures on ‘The knowledge base of futures studies’. Yet many ‘futurists’ who ought to premise their thinking on the long-range global population/ resources/environment problematique make no reference at all to these matters. For example, consider the July-August 1993 special issue of Futures on ‘The future of industrialization’, which has no reference, to any degree, to any of the facts about burgeoning human populations, destructive technologies, and defective notions of ‘progress’ and economic accounting. Is this intellectually and morally adequate? I think not. If concerns for sustainability are not relevant or overstated, the argument should be explicitly made. But the argument for perpetuating the industrial era has not been made since the days of Herman Kahn, who died more than a decade ago. And sticking one’s head in the sand has never been an acceptable method, even for a college freshman. Why, then, should it be tolerated among futurists?
Michael Marien is Editor of Future Survey and can be contacted at 5413 NY 13084, USA (Tel: + 1 315 677 9278; fax: t- 1 315 677 92481.
FUTURES
March 1994
0016-3287~94~0~011
S-02 @ 1994
Webster
Road, LaFayette,
Butterworth-Hein~mann
Ltd.
1 16
Visions
of sustainabi/ity
These essays were written by members of HOLIS: The Society for a Sustainable Future-a small network of largely North American scholars and activists that seeks to advance thought and action on sustainability-related matters. Founded in early 1992 by Lester Milbrath, Michael Marien, Doug McKenzie-Mohr, and others, information on membership is available from any of ‘The Three MS’. With the exception of the essays by Sally Lerner and Duane El&n, all the contributions are based on presentations at the World Future Society’s Seventh General Assembly, held in Washington in late June 1993. Several of these contributions (Olson, Dahlberg, Corson, Pirages, McKenzie-Mohr, and Marien) were also presented in a revised form at a conference on ‘Footsteps to sustainability’ arranged by Dennis Pirages and held at the University of Maryland and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in late October 1993. The conference proceedings will be published in late 1994 or in 1995. These essays are arranged in two broad categories. The first section, ‘Key elements of sustainability’, focuses on many (but not necessarily all) major aspects of a sustainable society. Lester Milbrath leads off by pointing out the inadequacies of the ‘dominant social paradigm’ (DSP) and the societal imperatives of the ‘new environmental paradigm’ (NEP). Hazel Henderson follows with an explanation of the broader set of social indicators that would be used by any society concerned with sustainability. The key concern of stabilizing human population remains as a major issue, albeit one that is all too often ignored. As Virginia Abernethy points out, the USA is the fastest growing industrialized country, and may well be sending the wrong signals to the rest of the world. Her distinctive view on population is followed by two papers that both elaborate on the I = PATformula, whereby impacts are the result of population times affluence times technology. Robert Goodland, Herman Daly and John Kellenberg, all from the World Bank, consider the startling message of I = PAT, and then list imperative priorities for both high- and low-income nations. Robert L. Olson considers how I = PAT would grow under three scenarios of ‘Continued and ‘Social transformation’. (The last two growth’, ‘Technology transformation’, essays, by Duane Elgin and Michael Marien, also employ a trio of scenarios.) Kenneth A. Dahlberg elaborates on the necessary transition from industrial-era agriculture to regenerative and sustainable food and fibre systems. Mary E. Clark points to the necessity of addressing basic human needs such as genuinely shared meaning. Sally Lerner focuses on the basic need of any sustainable society to seriously consider work, employment and income distribution. The five essays in the second section, ‘Moving towards sustainability’ focus on theproblemsand possibilitiesoftakingact~on. Dennis Piragesconsiderssustainabil~ty as an evolving process, requiring something on the order of a ‘sociocultural genome project’. Walter H. Corson provides specific outlines of needed changes, barriers to change, general strategies, specific agents of change, and how to monitor progress through indicators of sustainability. Doug McKenzie-Mohr moves further down to the micro level, discussing the fine points of promoting residential energy conservation. Moving back to the far reaches of the macro level, Duane Elgin offers an integrated vision of our evolutionary journey toward a sustainable species-civilization, viewing us in the midst of seven major stages of development. Elgin suggests the possibility of arrested development in his ‘dynamic stagnation’ scenario, as does Michael Marien in theconcludingessay that explores the key barriers of infoglut and competing problems. In sum, it is hoped that these articles inform and provoke. Our future, if we are to have one, must be sustainable. The only questions are when and how.