Visual interactive modelling and manpower planning

European Journal of Operational Research 30 (1987) 77-84 North-Holland

77

Visual interactive modelling and manpower planning J.N. BILLINGTON

Barclays Bank PLC, Electronic Banking Department - Barclaybank Section, 1 5 / 1 6 Gracechurchstreet, London EC3 V ODH, United Kingdom

Abstract: Following some years extensive use of a Staff Simulation Model by the Personnel Department of Barclays Bank to demonstrate the effect of different staffing policies, it was felt that there was a need to improve the model, both technically and from the point of view of the presentation of the results. It was decided to use Visual Interactive Modelling Systems as in this way, the changes in the assumptions could be seen in a colour, pictorial form on a screen. The results could also be shown diagrammatically either on the screen or as a screen print-out. The pictorial output had an immediate impact, and was felt to be a vast improvement on the large number of sheets of numerical computer print-outs previously produced.

Keywords: Manpower planning, simulation, visual interactive modelling

I. Introduction Some ten years ago the Business Research Section of Barclays Bank started to work with the Personnel Department in the area of Manpower Planning. Barclays Bank has over two thousand retail branches in England and Wales, employing approximately 6000 staff who are of 'managerial' status. In addition there are a large number of managers in Head Office Departments, together with managers and staff in branches in 80 countries in Europe and around the world. As has been stated on several occasions, the Bank's managers and staff are its greatest a s s e t - certainly there is a very large amount of money tied up in staff who tend to join the Bank when they leave school or college, and stay for the remainder of their working life-some forty years. Note: While the original presentation itself made use of colour slides it is regretted that only a limited number of black and white versions can be reproduced with this paper. All figures given are for illustrative purposes only. Paper presented at the Eurobanking Meeting in Oslo, 12-14 June 1985. Received May 1985; revised November 1985

It was therefore recognised that it was particularly important for Personnel Department to have a tool with which to explore the impact of alternative policies on the staff for whom they are responsible. The original exercise was therefore to produce a "Staff Simulation Model", which would show information on how staff would progress in a branch management structure over a number of years. This original model whose output comprised a large volume of reports and tables, was used m a n y times by Personnel Department. Frequently Business Research Section would be asked to carry out both the amendments and the simulation runs for Personnel Department. This was obviously not the most desirable method of o p e r a t i o n - - i t would have been far preferable if Personnel Department had the opportunity to sit at a computer and be in full control of the simulation runs themselves, This paper will therefore describe the background to the production of a new "Managerial Manpower Model" which has been prepared to supersede this original model, and to show how computer graphics have been incorporated to highlight the assumptions and the different forms of the output report. The system is now flexible and easy to use, so that the Manpower Planning

0377-2217/87/$3.50 © 1987, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland)

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J.N. Billington //VIM and manpowerplanning

Manager in Personnel Department may have full control over running the programs himself. In this instance there were many reasons for replacing the original simulation and installing it on a more updated system, and hence it is not possible to give a true comparison between the option of developing the new system and simply amending and running the old simulation program. While a considerable amount of time has been spent in developing the system, it has already had the benefit of ensuring that BRS can now spend its time improving the systems and on other projects, rather than running standard programs for other parts of the Barclays Group. The idea was to provide Personnel Department with a tool which they could use to solve any number of different situations. For example, Personnel Department has looked at the number of Branch Managers in individual grades which might be expected over the years to come, if the present promotion rules are applied. This can show that there may be a number of Managers who would hope or expect to have moved, but there may not be places for them. The model can, therefore, be used to show if sideways moves, or changes of career direction could eliminate these problems and the training that would be required. An alternative situation which has also been examined is the impact that different early retirement schemes could have on the career structures. Again, if there appears to be a bottleneck with a large number of people looking for a small number of posts, different retirement policies could aleviate some of these problems. Thus, our Personnel Department can change the rules relating to the career paths and length of time required to be in a post to show the effect of alternative scenarios. As a final example, the model has been used to show how 'high fliers' would have to move through the grades in order to achieve a specific post by a desired age. As well as the production of Manpower Planning models within Barclays Bank, discussions have also been held with organisations such as the Institute of Manpower Studies and some of their specialised programs have been used. Other approaches to Manpower Planning have been described at previous Eurobanking meetings and also in the Journal of the Operational Research Society. (A brief list of references is given as an Appendix to this paper).

2. Model outline

Both the original Staff Simulation Model, and the new Managerial Manpower Model, were designed to simulate the paths followed by managers in the main retail banking arm of the Group. The new model follows managers through from the Assistant Manager level to the highest grade of Branch Manager--thirteen 'grades' in total, but the model excludes the Senior Management at Local Head Offices, and other Head Office Departments. Staff can also be split into different groups depending on their rate of progress in the Bank. Three different categories are used and these are called 'potentials' reflecting the highest grade which they are expected to reach in their career with the Bank. The senior management in the Personnel Department have then to define the career paths which they would expect managers with each potential classification to follow. While the models concentrated on the Branch Managers within the Group, the Head Office Departments are not ignored. One of the important parts of any career planning is to ensure that a manager who is deemed to have high potential is given the opportunity to extend his experience by working in both Local Head Office and certain Head Office Departments including, of course, the possibility of transfers to and from the International Banking side. The model therefore has to take account of the number of staff who may transfer in and out of the main Branch banking route each year. The other basic piece of information which must be provided at the outset is the forecast of the number of posts expected for each grade for the period being simulated. The model also requires information for the start year detailing the number of staff in each grade, their age and retirement date and their promotion potential. An estimate is also made of the ' wastage rate', that is the proportion of staff in each grade who might leave the Bank's employment, either through ill-health, or to go to other employers. At the start of the simulation it is assumed that all posts are filled. Then for each year of the simulation the following steps are carried out: (a) The number of managers in each grade who are expected to retire in the first year is found by examining their age and the retirement rules. (b) The number predicted to leave by 'natural

J.N. Billington / VIM and manpower planning

wastage' is calculated by taking the percentage suggested for each grade a n d / o r potential of staff. (c) Any change in the number of posts due to branch structuring is noted. (d) Transfers in and out of the Branch Network are noted. (e) Hence the number of vacancies at each grade for the first year of the simulation is found. The simulation then operates from 'the top down', by first looking at the top managerial grade, noting the number of vacancies, then considering who would be eligible to be promoted into that grade. The career paths (known from the diagrams as career staircases) illustrate that the 'eligible' staff could be considered to be those with Potential 1 with say three years experience in the immediately lower grade, or they could even have say three years experience in the grade below that, and 'jump' a grade. Alternatively, it may be possible for managers with Potential 2 to be pulled into the grade if they have, say, four years experience at the immediately lower grade. Potential 3 managers would not, by definition, reach this level of managerial grade. Thus staff are promoted upwards depending on these promotion rules and the defined possible career staircases. If there are insufficient staff who are eligible, by means of these rules and their experience, then an unfilled vacancy will be defined, and this will be carried forward to the starting point for the next year of the simulation. Equally if there are staff, who because of the number of years in their present grade and their potential, are eligible for a promotion, but there are insufficient posts to be filled, then the number of 'eligible staff' is noted.

This procedure is repeated for the required number of years in the simulation, and is not novel in manpower planning systems. The major change which was offered to our Personnel Department was the form of the input and output, making much use of colour graphics, as well as the opportunity to operate the system themselves. Throughout the formulation of the model, there was, of course, a continuing dialogue with Personnel Department--dealing with the different rules to be built in to the simulation. However, many of the possible rules such as the 'promotion paths' were deliberately designed so that they could be altered by the user and would not be incorporated in the program.

3. Input The user can first select from a previously agreed set of assumptions, or he can re-define the scenario. A menu offers the user the chance to change each of the factors such as the wastage rate for any grade, the retirement age, priority rules for promotion (potential or number of years in previous grade). While these are simple text screens, the career staircase and the vacancies predicted for the years of the simulation are colour diagrams. The career staircase shows, for each potential, the number of managers in each grade, and also the number of years experience required for promotion from one grade to the next, or even to 'jump' one or two grades. The size of the 'jump' is indicated by a different colour to emphasise the difference. The user can then move the cursor directly from one grade to another, changing for

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J.N. Billington / VIM and manpower planning

80 YEAF GRADE

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is taken automatically from the present staff record system, and the user simply then moves the cursor to the required point in the g r a d e / y e a r table and keys in the predicted figure. However to eliminate as much keying as possible, the user can simply input the end figure, and the system will interpolate between the two to give the number of posts for the intervening years. If the number of posts for an individual grade remains constant over the period of the simulation, the base figure will automatically be carried across. To the right of this table a histogram shows how the number varies (for a grade) over the years. Again the illustration brings out the variation, and reminds the user of changes over the years. (Figure 2). Throughout these input routines the object was to eliminate as much as possible of the data to be input by the user, by using the system to replicate data or to interpolate automatically. In the past, the user had felt isolated as it was difficult for him to make changes to the data or assumptions himself. In this case we aimed to make the system both easy to use and to illustrate the basic assumptions.

Figure 2. Number of posts, per year, per grade

4. Output example the number of years experience, or eliminating some promotion routes. This colour diagram has had the effect of illustrating the rules that were to be used much more dramatically than would be the case from a table of figures. (Figure 1). To complete the number of posts required for each year under consideration, the starting point

One of the features of the earlier Staff Simulation Model was the amount of paper that was generated, and the amount of information that was produced. There was a number of tables that were output automatically for each year of the simulation together with a summary for the whole period, and also a group of tables which were

Table 1 Output menu Managerial manpower model - Output menu Run Number: 73 Title: Output test one I - Colour Print R - Return

SIS File Date: 30.6.85

M - Menu

Q - Quit

B - Back

X - Exit

Parameters

Summaries

End/start comparisons

Comparison of 2 years

Yearly information

Promotion rules Stocks at start Transfers

Difficulties Pipelines Vacancy analysis

Age/grade map H o t / c o l d spots Distribution of ages by grade

Stocks Career corridors

Stocks Career corridors Pipelines

Number of posts Early retires Constraints Others

Vacancy analysis Difficulties Early retires

J.N. Billington / VIM andmanpowerplanning

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(a) Parameters--enabling the initial assumptions to be displayed giving (Table 2): - promotion rules, stocks of staff at the start, number of transfers in and out of each grade each year, - the number of posts forecast for each grade for each year being simulated, Early retirements (the number and age for each grade/year), - P r o m o t i o n constraints (the maximum percentage that can be promoted out of any one grade in any year), other factors such as wastage rates. (b) Summaries--giving information covering the whole period of the simulation, histograms illustrating difficulties seen by having, for example, too many eligible staff, at the same time as having unfilled vacancies (Figure 3), - an analysis of the vacancies in each grade over the period.

'optional extras'. Unfortunately, the standard tables in the original model produced so much information that the optional reports, which could be very useful, were rarely called for. At times it was felt that so many tables and figures were produced that it was difficult to spot the important points--particularly if the 'user' in the Personnel Department changed, and was not used to interpreting the results. It was therefore thought particularly important for this revised version of the model that the results should be given diagrammatically, enabling the user to trace any problems by going to one screen and then another, printing out only those which were found to be relevant. Only at that time, and if required, would detailed figures by printed out. The user is therefore presented with a menu outlining the types of reports screens that can be called up (Table 1). This menu screen is itself split into five columns:

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Table 2 Basic parameters Parameters Run Number: 65 - Early Retirements Test Regions inc: London Soutern Central Northern Grades included: 8 10 11 12a 12b 13 14 15 Potentials included: 1 2 3 Duration of simulation: 9 years Mode: Normal Promotion Priority: Grade: 10 11 12a Priority: G G P

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New Staff Age Spread From - 5 to + 8 years Retirement Age (New Staff): 60 Maximum Retirement Age: 63 Staff are terminal when within 5 years of retirement or if they have been eligible for promotion in the same grade for more than 10 years

J.N. Billington / VIM and manpower planning

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(c) E n d / s t a r t comparisons--showing changes in, for example, the age distributions of staff in each grade over the period of simulation. (Figure 4). (d) Comparison of any two years--giving an indication of the change in the stocks of staff between one year and the next, or indeed between any two years, The actual career paths or career corridors used rather than those initially proposed. (e) Yearly information--details can be requested for any year of the simulation for any grade of staff for virtually any of the report screens mentioned above. To call an individual screen the user simply keys in the initial letter of the column, and the

information required. Thus PP would bring down the screen from the Parameters column showing the P r o m o t i o n rules. It will be appreciated that by being able to look at diagrams giving details for both individual years and combinations of years as well as for the grades under examination the number of screens involved can swiftly multiply. In fact with thirteen grades, and a simulation covering nine years over 200 screens could be generated! The beauty of this system is that the user can be guided, because of a problem that he is considering, to look at a particular set of screens. Alternatively, the screens themselves can give clues to the problems, and hence which is the next screen to be looked at. For example, the user might start

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J.N. Billington / VIM and manpowerplanning

off by looking at the summary screen indicating whether there is any problem at all by noting any discrepancy between the total number of 'Unfilled vacancies' and t h e ' Eligible staff'. The screen shows which year this mismatch occurs, and hence the 'Yearly information' screen can be brought down and this will highlight the grade at which difficulties occur. The 'Stocks' chart can then show if the problem can be alleviated by promoting managers earlier than normal, or from those with a different potential. In addition to the graphical and diagrammatic presentation of the results, tables giving the detailed numbers involved are also produced, ensuring that those who were used to interpreting the results in that way would also be satisfied.

5. Discussion

Visual Interactive Models (VIM) are themselves slightly unusual in that they require the use of some specialised hardware and software. They cannot at the present time be run on small personal micro-computers, but need micros such as the SAGE linked to an INTERCOLOR terminal. Two major general purpose visual interactive modelling systems have been marketed in the United Kingd o m since 1981--FoRSSIGHT and SEE-WHY, although both have now been brought together and are being developed further by ISTEL. In the past Visual Interactive Models have been used mainly in the area of production planning. Indeed the ideas were developed principally by the British Steel Corporation to examine their production facilities. V I M were developed to enable management and unions to 'see' the effect of changes simulated by their operational research department. Similarly British Leyland developed a system to look at alternative production line arrangements at their plants. Last year Eurobanking saw how the Bank of Ireland has used the British Steel's FORSSIGIJT system to look at branch operations. But this was still almost a 'production line' operation. The application described uses the same type of Visual Interactive Modelling system to demonstrate the solutions to a different type of problem. As mentioned above, one of the objectives of

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the system was therefore to make the system VISUAL. The second was to increase the user's involvement by making the input and output as ' u s e r friendly' as possible. In other words the aim was to make the system as INTERACTIVEas possible. Finally, by providing the user with a MODEL he could test for himself the effect of changing his own assumptions. The major advance in this model is in the use of a different technology to present the results of the work to our Personnel D e p a r t m e n t - - t h e r e are few major advances in the actual manpower planning systems or mathematical techniques in this model. The reason for the introduction of Visual Interactive Models was to increase the IMPACT of the assumptions and the eventual results on the user. Whenever the system has been demonstrated it has quickly been apparent that the method of displaying the ' p r o m o t i o n paths' in a coloured diagrammatic form had a much greater effect than simply providing a tabulation of the number of years in each grade. Finally, the way in which the user could progress from one screen to another and see the cause of the managerial problems in any grade or any year was again preferable to receiving a pile of computer printouts many centimeters in height. The Managerial Manpower Model has therefore had the desired effect of reinforcing the Personnel Department's involvement in the use of Manpower Planning Models. This re-established Business Research Section's involvement in producing the model itself, and removed the need for the Section to run the programs for Personnel Department. It must be emphasised that Visual Interactive Modelling is not a new technique. It is a way of involving 'clients' to a much greater extent by being able to illustrate much more forcibly the models that have been developed by operational research departments. The experience of Barclays Business Research Section confirms the view of Professor Peter Bell, the President of the Operational Research Society of Canada, who wrote in a recent article that with Visual Interactive Models, " a picture is worth a thousand words, and carefully managed visually interactive problem solving systems can be a cost-effective high-technology management tool".

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J.N. Billington / VIM and manpower planning

Acknowledgement The author acknowledges the e n c o u r a g e m e n t a n d e n t h u s i a s m of two groups of people. First, the Senior M a n a g e m e n t of the Personnel D e p a r t m e n t of Barclays Bank who have given permission to p u b l i s h this paper, a n d secondly the tem from Business Research Section who have carried out the work, a n d are b r i n g i n g the ideas to fruition; Phil Brown, Julia Shepherd a n d Jon Glanville.

References Jones, R.C. Morrison, S.R. and Whiteman, R.P. (1973), "Helping to plan a bank's manpower resources", Oplerational Research Quartely 24, 365-374. National Westminster Bank (1976) "Manpower planning" Eurobanking 1976, Rome. Workshop 3 (1977), Manpower Planning Eurobanking 1977, Amsterdam.

Ladeforged, P. (Privatbanken)(1980), "Manpower planning", Eurobanking 1980, Edinbrugh. Cordon, T. (Bank of Ireland), (1984), "Use of FORSSIGHT", Eurobanking 1984, Ashdown Park. Davies, R.L. and Howard, K. (1981), "A manpower planning model for small groups", IJM 2 (4). Davies, R.L. (1983), "A contingency approach to the use of manpower modelling techniques", Local Government Studies. Barnes, A. (1984), "Manpower planning for the 1990's--How models beat muddles", Personnel Management, July. Bell, P.C., Parker, D.C., and Kirkpatrick, P. (1984), "Visual interactive problem solving--A new look at management problems", Business Quarterly, Spring. Bell, P.C. (1984), "Visual interactive modelling in operational research--Successes and opportunities", OR Society Conference, Lancaster. Institute of Manpower Studies (1983) "Manpower modelling information brief 1983". Institute of Manpower Studies (1984), "Computers in personnel conference" IMS Paper no 86 June. Bennison, M., and Casson, J. (1984) The Manpower Planning Handbook, McGraw-Hill, New York.