Water supply challenge in the Gulf region

Desalination, 78 (1990) 133-145 Elsevier science Publishers B .V ., Amsterdam - Printed in The Netherlands

133

Water Supply Challenge in the Gulf Region* ADIL A . BUSHNAK Water Membrane Manufacturing Company, P .O . Box 13744,

Tel .

966-667-2222, Fax 966-661-0581,

Telex

Jeddah

21414 (Saudi Arabia)

601130

SUMMARY

The scarcity of natural water resources and the growing gap between demand and available supply of potable water in most countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force them to face their water challenge with wise policies and plans . This paper highlights some of the water challenges facing the Gulf region and recommends some key policies and programs to turn these challenges into opportunities . Maintaining economic prosperity with limited water supply, finding enough capital to increase supply, mastering advanced water technologies, securing supplies under all conditions, reducing negative impact to the environment, and coordinating the efforts of existing water institutions are only some of the challenges facing the Gulf region . The key policies recommended include establishing regional water plans, reducing water subsidies, creating competition in water supply, increasing water supply options for both short and long terms, developing a local industrial base in desalination and other advanced water related technologies, and reducing the current waste in water use . Some specific programs to implement above policies are outlined . They include having government water organizations buy water through competitive market pricing, establishing a GCC fund for developing water technologies under the GCC General Secretariat, securing strategic water reserves, building a regional water pipeline network and making water conservation a duty for all users and sectors .

`Presented at the Fourth World Congress on Desalination and Water Re-Use, Kuwait, November 4-8, 1989 .

0011-9164/90/$03 .50

0 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B .V .

134 INTRODUCTION Water has a high strategic value for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC because of its limited natural sources . Scarcity of future supplies is expected in most GCC countries under present water policies and supply structure . Shortages in water will affect not only the economic prosperity of the region but also the security and well-being of its inhabitants . The gulf region has to overcome major challenges to secure water supply in the next decade and beyond . Luckily, the region has the resources and the ability to turn these challenges into opportunities for economic growth and expansion . This paper highlights the dimension of the water supply problem in the Gulf, and reviews some proposed policies and programs that need to be adopted by the countries of the region . A regional approach is followed in this paper because it makes economic sense to all countries of the region as it will be clarified through the paper . While the noted problems may not be common to all GCC countries, the proposed policies and programs can benefit all countries in the region . THE PRICE OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY As water use usually increases in proportion to prosperity and the level of economic activities, GCC countries have been struggling over the last two decades to increase their water supply to satisfy the growing demand . Their struggle will intensify in the next decade as they face the challenge of maintaining their economic prosperity with reduced water resources . The present total water demand in the region is estimated to be 18 .5 billion cubic meters annually of which about 12% is for municipal use, 2% for industrial use, and the remaining 86% is for agriculture use. This level of consumption can not be sustained for very long beyond the year 2000 with present proven water reserves of the region . Per capita water use rates in GCC major cities is among the highest in the world and mostly falls in the range of 500-600 liters per day, see Fig . 1 . The increase in municipal water demand is caused by many factors including increased urbanization and level of income, high subsidy for water, and increased landscaping in the cities . The growth of municipal and industrial water demand is shown in Fig . 2. Municipal demand includes domestic, commercial and urban landscaping uses . Municipal demand growth at present averages 1015% in most urban centers in the region . This growth is expected to continue for the next decade with increased urbanization, population growth and heavily subsidized water rates .



135 Water use for industry constitutes about 5% of the levels indicated in Fig . 1 . Water demand for industry has grown only moderately over the last decade and its relative share of total water demand was reduced by 50% since 1980 . Yet industrial output has increased by many folds during the same period . This efficiency in water use was achieved simply by the fact that industry pays close to the actual cost of water production and supply . Refineries and other major industries are forced to build their own desalination or water reclamation plant to guarantee their water supply . Abu Dhabi

600

State of Bahrain .J

600

Dammam

)

Doha 1

564

Dubai

614

528

Jeddah 1

250

State of Kuwait Madina

200

Masqat

200

472

Riyadh

I

New York City 1

700

1

700

Los Angeles

I

0

200

I

I

400

600 Liters/day

I

800

800

I 1000

Fig. 1 . Per capita water use. 1988 daily average including commercial and industrial use.



1 36

In contrast, water use by the agricultural sector has grown by many folds over the last decade . Free water supply and generous government subsidies expanded agriculture production, specially in Saudi Arabia, and hence water consumption to levels that can not be sustained for very long by proven water reserves . Official figures on water consumption by agriculture are not readily

UAE

M

117 263 J

532

45 Bahrain 116 143

Saudi Arabia

aa\\

502 1700 I

2900

Oman

50 Qatar 107 149

Kuwait

M

146 296

I I 500

530

I

I

1000

1500

lmwl )Iuoicip.l and rohutxiel D 1900

1990

I

I

2000

2500

I 3000

o4 ip Xilliora of tthic wtu. 2000

I I

Fig. 2 . Increasing demand for potable water in GCC countries . Source: Ministry of Electricity and water in UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait : Ministr of Planning in Saudi Arabia .



1 37

available . However, an estimate can be made using official figures on cultivated areas for each major crop [1,3] and proven average water demand for each crop for the soil and climate conditions prevailing in the GCC region [2,4], see Table I. Water demand for agriculture is expected to continue to increase in the near future as more countries in the region expand their agriculture production or shift more cultivated areas to production of barely, fruits and vegetables which demand increasing amount of water. TABLE I Water use for agriculture( *) in GCC countries,

1988.

U.A.E. Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Qatar Kuwait Total

Million cubic meters per year 800 130 14,000

800 75

80 15,885

`Source : Author's estimate based on [1,2,3,4,5] . To supply the growing demand for portable water the region invested heavily in building large desalination plants. Fig. 3 indicates the total number of desalination plants sold over 5 years intervals in GCC countries . Projections for the period 1990-2000 is based on the assumption that all expansion projects and new plants already identified but mostly delayed over the last five years will be sold in the next decade . As desalination plants have a limited service life, most of the capacity installed during the period 1975-1985 . will have to be refurbished or replaced after the year 2000 . It is interesting to note in this Congress the future growth of sea water desalting using membrane process compared to thermal processes which reflects the changing economics as well as technical evolution of desalination technology. WHO PAYS THE COST OF WATER? Increasing water supply requires large outlays of capital be it for a new desalination plant or an expansion of a pipeline network . Water facilities are extensive to operate, maintain and replace at the end of their service life . The average unit water cost reaching the end user in GCC countries is estimated to range between US$ Q .5-2 .5 per cubic meter depending on the source of water . Much higher water costs exist for remote inland or coastal locations where extensive pumping is needed or small scale desalination plants are used .



1 38 800750700650-

MILLIONS OF IMPERIAL GALLONS PER DAY

Membrane Thermal

600550500450400-

350300250200150100-

so0

1965

1970 T975

1985 1990

1995

21100

Fig . 3. Total sold capacity of desalting plants in GCC countries . Source: 1988 IDA Worldwide Desalting Plants Inventory . GCC governments have traditionally allocated the financial resources required to make water available to almost all the people of the region . Yet, they usually charge very little in return for this valuable service . Table II summarizes the present monthly water rates structure in GCC countries which indicates that water is heavily subsidized in these countries . Water subsidy is the major barrier to expansion of water supply in the region . Low water rates encourages excessive waste of this valuable resource . Subsidized rates do not generate the funds needed for maintaining the existing investment or expanding it, and reduces economic efficiency . Huge investments are needed to expand and replace existing water production and distribution facilities . For example over 4 billion U.S . dollars will be needed by GCC countries before the year 2000 to build specific desalinations plants which have been mostly delayed for many years but are needed very urgently to expand their desalting capacity by 2 million m 3/day (500 mgd) . Additional 15 billion U .S . dollars (1989 value) will be needed soon after the year 2000 to replace existing plants which are aging very rapidly by excessive use. Similar investment levels will be required to expand pipelines and water distribution networks, waste water collection and treatment systems . Future water supply can not be secured with public capital becoming increasingly limited. Private capital must be attracted to invest in increasing water supply and maintaining the development momentum initiated over the last two decades . But first water subsidy must gradually be eliminated specially for

139

major users . Water subsidies must be eliminated in order to achieve self-finance water supply. A realistic price must be established for water, including underground water, since the region is using mostly non renewable sources . The cost

of replacing

such water for future generations should be considered in establishing the fair water rate for its users . TABLE B Water rate structure in GCC countries Country In local currency

Rate structure based on consumption per month Based on $/1000 gallons $/m 3

U .A .E

15 DI-I/1000 gal

Bahrain

Domestic 0.45 BD/m3 1 .10 BD/m3 2.00 BD/m3

<50 m3 51-100 m 3 >101 m 3

Industrial users 3 .00 BD/m3 4 .00 BD/m3

<450 m 3 >450 m 3

Saudi

0 .30 SR/m3 1 .00 SR/m3 2 .00 SR/m3 4 .00 SR/m 3 Free for tankers

Oman

<100 m 3 101-200 m3 201-300 m3 >300 m 3

1 .0

4.0

1 .2 2.9 5 .3

4 .8 11 .6 21 .2

8 .0 10 .6

32.0 42.4

0 .08 0 .27 0 .53 0 .07

0.32 1 .08 1 .08 4 .28

2 .00 OR/1000 gal

1 .3

5 .2

Qatar

4 .40 QR/m 3

1 .2

4 .8

Kuwait

Potable water Domestic 0 .800 KD/1000 gal Industrial 0 .250 KD/1000 gal Tankers 0.300 KD/1000 gal

0.67 0.21 0.25

1 .68 0 .84 1 .00

0.08 0.08 0.02

0 .32 0 .32 0 .08

Brackish water Domestic 0 .100 KD/1000 gal Industrial 0 .100 KD/1000 gal Agriculture 0 .020 KD/1000 gal Free for tankers

DH-dirhans BD-Bahrain dinars SR-Saudi riyals OR-Oman riyals QR-Qatar riyals KD-Kuwait diners



140 TECHNICAL LEADERSHIP The GCC region constitute the larges market for desalination in the world, see Fig . 4 . There is a strong economic incentive for the countries of the region to establish a local industrial base to reduce the cost of replacing and expanding their desalination plants . The strategic value of local industries may equal or exceed their economic value since desalination technology provides over 60% of the total potable water needs of the region and over 90% of the water needs of most capitals and major cities . A local industrial base requires more than local production or assembly facilities. It requires a local technological capability to provide the knowledge and innovation needed to support industrial investment and increase its value . It requires proper education and training to provide the brains and experts needed . It requires long term investments and comprehensive programs not just political support . Most countries of the region have the experience and the resources to establish world class research programs in desalination . Kuwait and Saudi Arabia took the first step and established facilities devoted to desalination research . DROP Program of Kuwait has provided and continues to provide valuable data to all users of the technology and there are other examples of successful research programs in the region . Yet most research efforts continue to be fragmented, localized, and short term . The solar desalination plant using freezing process is an example of a research program that took longer to build than its total operation or utilization life . By the author's estimate, the region has appropriated a total of US$ 100 million for desalination research over the last NORTH AMERICA 11%

Worb TOW 12 MNbn CUbb Melere Per Day

OTHER MIDDLE EMT 12%

SAUDI ARABIA 51%

WORLD TOTAL

Fig. 4 . Total sold capacity of desalting plants . Source : IDA Desalting Plants inventory, 1988 .

OCC TOTAL

141 three decades . Yet this total is only 30% of what the U.S . Federal Government alone has allocated over the same period . While government funding for desalination and other water research is expected to diminish in the next decade, the GCC region has more potential than ever before to implement successful research programs . The research facilities at KISR, SWCC Research Center and KFUPM Research Institute are well equipped and staffed . The local engineers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain have gained the experience and confidence to initiate innovations in design and operation of large desalination plants . In addition, there is a strong economic incentive now to find more cost-effective solutions to expand and replace the existing plants and finally an effective regional institution exists which can coordinate and manage a collective effort. What is needed is for the GCC secretariat to establish a research fund devoted to the purpose of building the generic capabilities of the region in the fields of desalination and other advanced water technologies . The fund can be established by allocating 2-3% of the value of each water related contract to be let in any of the GCC countries . Long term research objectives and programs, should be well defined and established in order to recognize the priorities against competing short term needs . In addition, the GCC countries should adopt a policy of encouraging each major international contractor or supplier to transfer a needed technology through local joint ventures in engineering, manufacturing, maintenance, services and training . The GCC fund for Water Research will serve as a catalyst to develop the local technological base which is essential for the survival and growth of industrialization . The present private sector active in the water field has mostly contracting interest rather than industrial interest . No major research allocation from local private companies are expected unless the countries of the region adopt the policy of buying water instead of plants as discussed later in this paper. In any case, government funding is always needed to achieve long term strategic research objectives . It is important to note that the development of advanced water technologies will enhance the region's technical and industrial abilities in related process industries such as power generation, petrochemicals, oil production and oil refining. All of these industries have many common basic components, material requirements and technologies which can benefit from a generic technological base in desalination and related fields . SECURING SUPPLIES Securing water supplies under all conditions is a major concern to all water

142 authorities in the region . "Water Security" is not only a short term challenge under emergency conditions but should also be a major concern for long term planning . The best strategy is always to increase the options of supply sources . Increasing water supply options under all conditions requires either a strategic water reserve or a stand by source in addition to developed and tested plans for logistics of water distribution under emergency conditions . A stand by source could be in the form of excessive installed capacity of existing plants to be used under emergency conditions . Another stand by source could be a pipeline network connecting more than one supply source with more than one urban center in which water can be pumped in both directions . A regional water pipeline network connecting all major urban centers of GCC countries is very much needed . It complements the regional power grid already approved . It will help reduce the cost of water as excess plants' capacities can be utilized more efficiently and larger economy of scale can be obtained . Its cost could be less than the cost of building separate strategic water reserves for each urban center . The availability of a regional water pipeline network will increase the supply options in the long term as new water sources will become economic or accessible. Local manufacturing and production of essential spare parts and components will also enhance the long term security and economic prosperity of the region . Competition in water production

The region should adopt a policy of creating and maintaining competition in water production and supply . It is the best mechanism to guarantee availability of water at the lowest cost. Competition will also encourage innovations and development of new solutions and processes which is very essential in the long terms . The present water supply system is basically a monopoly by government organizations . Decisions and financial allocations are not based on minimum life cycle cost. Efficiencies and innovations are not rewarded . Past efforts to create autonomous water 'corporations' or 'departments' have not succeeded in increasing efficiencies because these departments are not financially independent. What is needed is for governments to buy water at the best competitive price . Eventually, they may want to buy water distribution services as well . But that should come at a later stage to make sure that public monopoly is not replaced with a private one . Evolution in the present water supply institution should come slowly and following careful studies and experiments in order to obtain the benefits of competition.



143

TABLE III Public organizations responsible for water production, distribution and policies Country

Water plans and policies

Production and supply

Distribution

U.A .E .

HCWRM, MEW WEDAD,MAF WEDS,WEDRAK WDD

MEW, WEDAD WEDS, WEDRAK

MEW, WEDAD, WEDS,WEDRAK WDD

Bahrain

WRC, MWPW, MTA

MWPW

MWPW

Saudi Arabia

MOAW, MOMRA

RWSDD, ERWCDD, SWCC, MOAW RWSDD, ERWSDD WRWSDD, MWSDD, WRWSDD, MWSDD AWSDD, QWSDD, MOAW

Oman

MEW, MAF

MEW

MEW

Qatar

MEW

MEW

MEW, WED

Kuwait

MEW

MEW

MEW

Key: U .A .E . :

HCWRM = Higher Council for Water WEDS = Water and Electricity Dept ., Shargah Resources Management WEDRAK= Water and Electricity MEW = Ministry of Electricity & Water Department, Ras-Al-Khaimah MAF = Ministry of Agriculture and WDD = Water Department, Dubai Fisheries WEDAD = Water and Electricity Department, Abu-Dhabi Bahrain : WRS = Supreme Water Resources Council MTA = Ministry of Trade and Agriculture MWPW = Ministry of Works, Power and Water Saudi Arabia : MOAW = Ministry of Agriculture &Water WRWSDD = Western Region Water MOMRA = Ministry of Municipal and & Sanitary Disposal Department Rural Affairs MWSDD = Medina Water and Sanitary SWCC = Saline Water Conversion Disposal Department Commission AWSDD = Abba Water and Sanitary Disposal RWSDD = Riyadh Water and Sanitary Department Sanitary Disposal Department QWSDD = Qasim Water and Sanitary Disposal ERWSDD = Eastern Region Water and Department Sanitary Disposal Department Oman : MEW = Ministry of Electricity and Water MAP = Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Oatar : MEW = Ministry of Electricity and Water WED = Water and Electricity Department Kuwait : MEW = Ministry of Electricity and Water

144 Another institutional challenge is to adopt and implement coherent water policies and programs . A regional water plan is very much needed not only because the GCC countries share some common water sources but because they can share the cost and benefits of developing their water supply options. Some countries have too many organizations responsible for water supply and distribution, see Table III . Yet, the existing institutions should not prevent the GCC countries from coordinating some of their efforts and policies as a first step toward a more integrated regional water plan . Wasting money and the environment

In spite of the high cost of producing potable water, a large percentage of it is wasted through municipal distribution and household storage systems . The percentage of water unaccounted for in major cities of the region averages 30% . This waste is not only a drain of money but also a contributing source to a major environmental problem in these cities which is rising ground water levels . Contamination of municipal water supply is another side-effect because water pressure can not be maintained throughout the week in most municipal networks . Some countries, such as Bahrain, have a national program to bring this problem under control, and some cities, such as Riyadh, have started taking active measure to reduce this waste . Water reuse remains to be a minor source of water at the regional level . While 30% of municipal water in the region is estimated to go through waste water treatment plants, less than 5% of total water supply is recycled . The percentage of recycled water is much higher in some cities such as Riyadh and others where a system of delivering the recycled water to industrial and agriculture users exist. As GCC countries can not afford now to build separate municipal distribution systems for recycled water, they should adopt policies that provide incentives for water reuse by the consumer . All major water users should be forced by law to build water reuse plants. Increasing water rates will also lead to the same effect and will force home owners to reduce leakage and waste within their houses . A comprehensive water conservation program used to be implemented by most GCC countries to reduce waste and negative environmental impact . The program should be based on education and mass communication addressing the Islamic values which encourage water conservation . The generation which was born and raised during the age of abundance and cheap water need to be reminded that wasting water is an anti-social behavior. Needless to say that such a program will be ineffective unless governments policies and actions enforce the importance of conservation.



145 CONCLUSIONS

The paper reviewed the dimensions of the water challenge facing the GCC region . Several policies and programs to deal with this challenge are recommended. The key water policies proposed are the following : a.

Adopt and implement consistent water policies leading to a regional water plan . Reduce water subsidies specially for major users . Increase water supply options under all conditions in both short and long terms . Create competition in water supply institutions . Reduce waste and increase utilization of available water sources .

b. c. d. e.

The following specific programs or actions to support above policies where also recommended: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Users should buy water not plants and equipment . A GCC Research Fund to support water technologies . Strategic water reserves for all urban centers . A regional water pipeline network. Water conservation programs .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The author want to acknowledge and express his appreciation to all those who contributed information to this paper specially the many decision makers in water related government departments and organizations in all GCC countries . REFERENCES I

Al-Tanmiyah AI-Ziraiyyah (Agriculture Development in GCC Countries), GCC secretariat, Riyadh 1988 . 2 M. Nimah, F. Al-Samarai,1 . Bashur, E . Quintana, M . Abu-Khait, Water Requirements of Important Crops in Saudi Arabia, Ministry of Agriculture and Water, Riyadh, 1986 . 3 Agriculture Statistics Year Book, Ministry of Agriculture and Water, Riyadh, 1986/87. 4 J .B. Parker, Using Policies and Technology to Boost Wheat Production : The Example of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Economic Survey, August 23, 1989 .