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What futurists believe
oping the model identification skills that, as the authors emphasize, are needed for successful model building. A more complete catalog of ACF/PhCF patterns would have been useful. Many, too, will find the authors overly sanguine in their assessment that “[sluch parsimonious models will rarely yield disappointing forecast performance”. (p. 300.) Chapter 9 offers an instructive and insightful discussion of the relationships existing between the various models and algorithm The authors’ preference for ARIMA models over exponential smoothing algo~thms is clear, but the presentation is not without balance. “On occasion, if only by chance, a particular exponential smoothing algorithms will yield better forecasts than a care&i@ fitted ARIMA model” (emphasis added; p. 300) is, however, either a tautology or empirically incorrect. The relationship between regression and ARIMA models is nicely developed. and the introduction of transfer and intervention models in this context is convincingly appropriate. The discussion of combining forecasts (Chapter 12) is up-todate and underscores the oft repeated caution that there is no universally best model. The importance of evaluating forecasting performance is stressed in Chapter 13. It is a topic that is too often omitted or treated perfunctorily. Newbold and Bos provide a thoughtful and perceptive summary of performance evaluation issues and procedures. The reader may, however, wish that more was said on how the evaluation of performance can be used to improve future forecasts. These several chapters are very well done but have a subtlety and sophistication that suggest a very different reader from the one for whom Chapters 2 and 3 were intended. The same comment is equally appropriate with respect to Chapter 13’s brief survey of other quantitative forecasting methods. In addition, the choice of ‘other’ is highly arbitrary; the need to consider these additional methods not compelling. The inclusion of judgmental methods and technological forecasting (Chapter 11) seems still less necessary. I read this book during a six hour layover at the Miami Airport. It made the time pass quickly and enjoyably. The chapters are well written, some admirably so. The authors express the hope that some of their thoughts and opinions will be found stimulating by their professional colleagues. Perhaps they have succeeded too well. This is a book
that I shall keep: however, I have difficulty envisioning the course and group of reasonabfy homogeneous students for which this would be the preferred text.
George
Heitmann
The Pmnsylvania State University lx4
References Jonathan D. fryer, 1986, Time Series An&is
fI?tlxhury Press,
Boston, MA).
Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, 19X9, Forecasring Methods for Management, 5th ed. (Wiley. New York). Walter Vandaele, 1983* Applied Time Series and Box- Jenkins Models (Academic Press. New York).
Joseph
F.
Coates
Jennifer Jarrett, What Publication, Inc., Mt. Worid Future Society, Be-
and
Futurists Be&we (Lomond Airy, MD, and The thesda, MD, 1989).
Sponsored by the World Future Society this unusual volume is a compendium of the thinking of 17 futurists plus five chapters by Coates and Jarrett, four of which characterize compare, analyze and criticize the 17, plus a final chapter in which the two have their say about the subject, The book is a s~?~or~asbor~with the table loaded with intellectual dishes almost without number, some tasty and others indigestible. According to the Preface, the project was supported by eight well-known American corporations and two corporate service organizations. Seventeen futurists out of a large number of candidates were selected for inclusion: Roy Amara, Robert U. Ayres, Daniel Bell, Kenneth E. Boulding, Arthur C. Clarke, Peter Drucker, Victor C. Ferkiss, Barry B. Hughes, Alexander King, Richard D. Lamm, Michael Marien, Dennis L. Meadows, James A. Ogilvy, Gerard K. O’NeilI, John R. Pierce, Peter Schwartz, and Robert ‘Theobald. Each was interviewed and had the opportunity to examine the write-up of his chapter and to
prepare a short commentary. I use the word, his, because no woman was among the 17. To the extent I am able to judge, the chapters summarizing and ~~Ii~hting the work of the 17 futurists are quite acceptable. In the section called Second Thoughts each of them had a chance to register disapproval, but most simply added a few thoughts. Governor Lamm began his commentary by saying, “I stand pat.” He then repeated his gloomy view of the U.S. future. I found Professor Boulding’s rejoinder most interesting: “Perhaps the greatest danger which faces futurists is their failure to recognize the profound uncertainties of the future and hence to think about structures which will handie these uncertainties.” In the opening chapters Coates and Jarrett, futurists themselves, struggle to characterize and compare the beliefs of the 17, not an easy undertaking since the 17 range far and wide over the terrain of the future. They note what the 17 strongly agree on (for example, complexity, dominance of technology, slow-down of economic growth in the U.S., and inadequacies of government), what the 17 disagree about (images of the future and societal changes), what they are uncertain of (world population growth, values and attitudes, Africa), and what they ignore. In this last category appear for starters such items as foreign affairs, the physical infrastructure, women, minorities, immigrants, crime, unions, environment, and religion. I rather think many, perhaps all, of the 17 would cringe at this if they stopped to think about it. This points to one of the problems with the book. Coates and Jarrett, in a laudable effort to condense and crystalize a mass of books, articles, and verbal comments from the 17, have to squeeze ideas, insights, and even visions into a limited number of categories having to do with time horizons, geographic areas, underlying causes, inhibiters, organizational structures, alternative emerging societies, and so on. Considering that the 17 selected futurists are free-wheeling in the extreme. I suppose our two authors have done reasonably well in organizing their material. But the apples and oranges problem remains. As you would expect from the sponsorship, the project was planned to elicit thoughts and suggestions about the future relevant to business corporations. One of the ingenious charts in the book reveals that of the 17 ffrucker, Schwartz, Ogilvy,
and Pierce have the greatest orientation to the corporation, the first two with a broader interest and the other two with a more particular interest. Coates and Jarrett conclude that the American corporation is weakest in plarming and that futurists can help here by: (1) heightening an awareness of the power and sometimes near inevitability of long-term forces and trends; (2) creating positive and negative visions of the corporate future; (3) helping to formulate policy choices and the selection among them; (4) identifying radical, new, or strikingly different strategies along any dimension of corporate concern or activity. It is worth noting that few, if any, of the 17 give high rating to the U.S. government as a significant actor in charting the course into the future. In contrast, corporations and especially multinational corporations are viewed by most of them as major players. Those who are looking for lots of statistics, quantitative models, and the like will not find much sustenance in this book. Those seeking imaginative broad brush paintings of the future will have a field day. The impressionistic, judgmental, idiosyncratic, far-out nature of the book wifl make it fun to read for anyone curious about what may lie ahead. So the book is for more of us than the insider group of futurists - the experts, devotees, and gurus. In a way it is like reading a condensed version of the beliefs of 17 Old Testament prophets, only our 17 are modern style, inforl~~ation age prophets. Coates and Jarrett note that the strength of the futurists is like that of the Delphic oracle who spoke somewhat beside the point but always with a number of different meanings. So with the I7 futurists: taken together, they offer enough different pronouncements that whatever happens later, they could always say, that is what we told you.
Joseph L. Fisher
Douglas C. Montgomery. Lyrtwood A. Johnson and John S. Gardiner, ~~~e~~~f~~~ und Time Series
that I shall keep: however, I have difficulty envisioning the course and group of reasonabfy homogeneous students for which this would be the preferred text.
George
Heitmann
The Pmnsylvania State University lx4
References Jonathan D. fryer, 1986, Time Series An&is
fI?tlxhury Press,
Boston, MA).
Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, 19X9, Forecasring Methods for Management, 5th ed. (Wiley. New York). Walter Vandaele, 1983* Applied Time Series and Box- Jenkins Models (Academic Press. New York).
Joseph
F.
Coates
Jennifer Jarrett, What Publication, Inc., Mt. Worid Future Society, Be-
and
Futurists Be&we (Lomond Airy, MD, and The thesda, MD, 1989).
Sponsored by the World Future Society this unusual volume is a compendium of the thinking of 17 futurists plus five chapters by Coates and Jarrett, four of which characterize compare, analyze and criticize the 17, plus a final chapter in which the two have their say about the subject, The book is a s~?~or~asbor~with the table loaded with intellectual dishes almost without number, some tasty and others indigestible. According to the Preface, the project was supported by eight well-known American corporations and two corporate service organizations. Seventeen futurists out of a large number of candidates were selected for inclusion: Roy Amara, Robert U. Ayres, Daniel Bell, Kenneth E. Boulding, Arthur C. Clarke, Peter Drucker, Victor C. Ferkiss, Barry B. Hughes, Alexander King, Richard D. Lamm, Michael Marien, Dennis L. Meadows, James A. Ogilvy, Gerard K. O’NeilI, John R. Pierce, Peter Schwartz, and Robert ‘Theobald. Each was interviewed and had the opportunity to examine the write-up of his chapter and to
prepare a short commentary. I use the word, his, because no woman was among the 17. To the extent I am able to judge, the chapters summarizing and ~~Ii~hting the work of the 17 futurists are quite acceptable. In the section called Second Thoughts each of them had a chance to register disapproval, but most simply added a few thoughts. Governor Lamm began his commentary by saying, “I stand pat.” He then repeated his gloomy view of the U.S. future. I found Professor Boulding’s rejoinder most interesting: “Perhaps the greatest danger which faces futurists is their failure to recognize the profound uncertainties of the future and hence to think about structures which will handie these uncertainties.” In the opening chapters Coates and Jarrett, futurists themselves, struggle to characterize and compare the beliefs of the 17, not an easy undertaking since the 17 range far and wide over the terrain of the future. They note what the 17 strongly agree on (for example, complexity, dominance of technology, slow-down of economic growth in the U.S., and inadequacies of government), what the 17 disagree about (images of the future and societal changes), what they are uncertain of (world population growth, values and attitudes, Africa), and what they ignore. In this last category appear for starters such items as foreign affairs, the physical infrastructure, women, minorities, immigrants, crime, unions, environment, and religion. I rather think many, perhaps all, of the 17 would cringe at this if they stopped to think about it. This points to one of the problems with the book. Coates and Jarrett, in a laudable effort to condense and crystalize a mass of books, articles, and verbal comments from the 17, have to squeeze ideas, insights, and even visions into a limited number of categories having to do with time horizons, geographic areas, underlying causes, inhibiters, organizational structures, alternative emerging societies, and so on. Considering that the 17 selected futurists are free-wheeling in the extreme. I suppose our two authors have done reasonably well in organizing their material. But the apples and oranges problem remains. As you would expect from the sponsorship, the project was planned to elicit thoughts and suggestions about the future relevant to business corporations. One of the ingenious charts in the book reveals that of the 17 ffrucker, Schwartz, Ogilvy,
and Pierce have the greatest orientation to the corporation, the first two with a broader interest and the other two with a more particular interest. Coates and Jarrett conclude that the American corporation is weakest in plarming and that futurists can help here by: (1) heightening an awareness of the power and sometimes near inevitability of long-term forces and trends; (2) creating positive and negative visions of the corporate future; (3) helping to formulate policy choices and the selection among them; (4) identifying radical, new, or strikingly different strategies along any dimension of corporate concern or activity. It is worth noting that few, if any, of the 17 give high rating to the U.S. government as a significant actor in charting the course into the future. In contrast, corporations and especially multinational corporations are viewed by most of them as major players. Those who are looking for lots of statistics, quantitative models, and the like will not find much sustenance in this book. Those seeking imaginative broad brush paintings of the future will have a field day. The impressionistic, judgmental, idiosyncratic, far-out nature of the book wifl make it fun to read for anyone curious about what may lie ahead. So the book is for more of us than the insider group of futurists - the experts, devotees, and gurus. In a way it is like reading a condensed version of the beliefs of 17 Old Testament prophets, only our 17 are modern style, inforl~~ation age prophets. Coates and Jarrett note that the strength of the futurists is like that of the Delphic oracle who spoke somewhat beside the point but always with a number of different meanings. So with the I7 futurists: taken together, they offer enough different pronouncements that whatever happens later, they could always say, that is what we told you.
Joseph L. Fisher
Douglas C. Montgomery. Lyrtwood A. Johnson and John S. Gardiner, ~~~e~~~f~~~ und Time Series