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When it comes to defence, our priorities are wrong
EDITORIAL
LOCATIONS UK Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250 Australia Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Tel +61 2 9422 2666 Fax +61 2 9422 2633 USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451 Tel +1 781 734 8770 Fax +1 720 356 9217 201 Mission Street, 26th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 Tel +1 415 908 3348 Fax +1 415 704 3125 to SUBSCRIbe UK and International Tel +44 (0) 8456 731 731 [email protected] The price of a New Scientist annual subscription is UK £143, Europe €228, USA $154, Canada C$182, Rest of World $293. Postmaster: Send address changes to New Scientist, PO Box 3806, Chesterfield, MO 63006-9953, USA. cONTACTS Editorial Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Picture desk Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268 Who’s who newscientist.com/people Contact us newscientist.com/contact Enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 Display Advertising Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 [email protected] Recruitment Advertising UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 [email protected] Permission for reuse [email protected] Media enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 Marketing Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1286 Back Issues & Merchandise Tel +44 (0) 1733 385170 Syndication Tribune Media Services International Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588 UK Newsagents Tel +44 (0) 20 3148 3333 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, The Blue Fin Building, 110 Southwark St, London SE1 OSU Tel: + 44 (0) 20 8148 3333 © 2012 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Polestar (Colchester)
Adapt or die Freak weather is fast becoming normal. Brace yourself for a rough ride IT HAS been yet another week of Researchers now think they are extraordinary weather. Torrential starting to understand why (see rainfall caused chaos across the page 32). Human activity cannot UK. A record-breaking heatwave be held solely responsible for all drifted across the US, broken by of these extreme events, but by freak thunderstorms that left a adding carbon dioxide to the trail of destruction from Chicago atmosphere, we have loaded the to Washington DC. Meanwhile, in climate dice. Only political leaders India and Bangladesh more than and corporate masters have the 100 people were killed and half a power to do anything about that – million fled when the monsoon but they are doing little to help. arrived with a vengeance. Those opposed to cutting We have become used to emissions sometimes argue that reports of extreme weather events we will simply adapt to a warming playing down any connection world. That is fast becoming a with climate change. The refrain “The effects of global is usually along the lines of warming are becoming “you cannot attribute any single ever more obvious – and event to global warming”. But we ain’t seen nothing yet” increasingly this is no longer the case. The science of climate attribution – which makes causal necessity, rather than a choice, connections between climate but we are doing a lousy job of it. change and weather events – is Take the recent devastating forest advancing rapidly, and with it fires in Colorado. Recent weather our understanding of what we conditions have been ideal for can expect in years to come. them, but they were worsened by From killer heatwaves to forest-management practices that destructive floods, the effects of led to a build-up of combustible global warming are becoming fuel (see page 6). Elsewhere in ever more obvious – and we ain’t the US, subsidised insurance seen nothing yet. Our weather is encourages development in not only becoming more extreme coastal areas that are increasingly as a result of global warming, it at risk from storms and flooding. is becoming even more extreme China, too, is failing. Most of than climate scientists predicted. rapidly growing Shanghai is
barely above sea level. The land is sinking and the sea is rising. In a century or two, it will be another New Orleans. And what sort of extreme events will we have to endure by 2060, when the planet could already be 4 °C hotter and counting? We need to start planning for a future of much wilder weather now, to prepare for ever more ferocious heatwaves, storms, floods and droughts. For example, building codes should be toughened so that homes and offices can withstand whatever is thrown at them. Vital infrastructure should be situated in areas far from the risk of floods and other natural disasters, as Thailand learned the hard way last year when an economically important industrial site was destroyed by floodwater. We are in this position as a result of decades of foot-dragging over emissions cuts and cleanenergy investment. That was perhaps understandable given the distant and abstract nature of the threat. Now the threat has become a real and present danger. Those who offer blithe reassurances of our ability to adapt need to start putting their money where their mouths are. n
Our mistaken defence priorities IN 1908, a small asteroid exploded in the sky above Siberia, flattening a vast area of remote forest. Had the airburst happened over a big city, countless people would have been killed without warning. If a similar object were hurtling towards Earth today, it would probably be spotted in good time to evacuate anyone living in harm’s way – at least for the time being. Next month the only
telescope scanning the southern hemisphere sky for dangerous space rocks will shut down for lack of money. It won’t be replaced until 2017 at the earliest. In the interim, Earth’s defences will have a blind spot. Panic stations? Not quite. The chance of another asteroid on the scale of 1908 hitting before 2017 is minuscule, and any threat will probably be visible from the
northern hemisphere at some point. The real worry is that without continuous monitoring, evacuation time will be lost. That is still ample reason not to accept the closure and just hope for the best. Keeping the telescope running for five more years would cost about $1 million. In the same period, global “defence” spending will be about $7.5 trillion. It seems we have our priorities wrong. n 7 July 2012 | NewScientist | 5
LOCATIONS UK Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250 Australia Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Tel +61 2 9422 2666 Fax +61 2 9422 2633 USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451 Tel +1 781 734 8770 Fax +1 720 356 9217 201 Mission Street, 26th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 Tel +1 415 908 3348 Fax +1 415 704 3125 to SUBSCRIbe UK and International Tel +44 (0) 8456 731 731 [email protected] The price of a New Scientist annual subscription is UK £143, Europe €228, USA $154, Canada C$182, Rest of World $293. Postmaster: Send address changes to New Scientist, PO Box 3806, Chesterfield, MO 63006-9953, USA. cONTACTS Editorial Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Picture desk Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268 Who’s who newscientist.com/people Contact us newscientist.com/contact Enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 Display Advertising Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 [email protected] Recruitment Advertising UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 [email protected] Permission for reuse [email protected] Media enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 Marketing Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1286 Back Issues & Merchandise Tel +44 (0) 1733 385170 Syndication Tribune Media Services International Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588 UK Newsagents Tel +44 (0) 20 3148 3333 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, The Blue Fin Building, 110 Southwark St, London SE1 OSU Tel: + 44 (0) 20 8148 3333 © 2012 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Polestar (Colchester)
Adapt or die Freak weather is fast becoming normal. Brace yourself for a rough ride IT HAS been yet another week of Researchers now think they are extraordinary weather. Torrential starting to understand why (see rainfall caused chaos across the page 32). Human activity cannot UK. A record-breaking heatwave be held solely responsible for all drifted across the US, broken by of these extreme events, but by freak thunderstorms that left a adding carbon dioxide to the trail of destruction from Chicago atmosphere, we have loaded the to Washington DC. Meanwhile, in climate dice. Only political leaders India and Bangladesh more than and corporate masters have the 100 people were killed and half a power to do anything about that – million fled when the monsoon but they are doing little to help. arrived with a vengeance. Those opposed to cutting We have become used to emissions sometimes argue that reports of extreme weather events we will simply adapt to a warming playing down any connection world. That is fast becoming a with climate change. The refrain “The effects of global is usually along the lines of warming are becoming “you cannot attribute any single ever more obvious – and event to global warming”. But we ain’t seen nothing yet” increasingly this is no longer the case. The science of climate attribution – which makes causal necessity, rather than a choice, connections between climate but we are doing a lousy job of it. change and weather events – is Take the recent devastating forest advancing rapidly, and with it fires in Colorado. Recent weather our understanding of what we conditions have been ideal for can expect in years to come. them, but they were worsened by From killer heatwaves to forest-management practices that destructive floods, the effects of led to a build-up of combustible global warming are becoming fuel (see page 6). Elsewhere in ever more obvious – and we ain’t the US, subsidised insurance seen nothing yet. Our weather is encourages development in not only becoming more extreme coastal areas that are increasingly as a result of global warming, it at risk from storms and flooding. is becoming even more extreme China, too, is failing. Most of than climate scientists predicted. rapidly growing Shanghai is
barely above sea level. The land is sinking and the sea is rising. In a century or two, it will be another New Orleans. And what sort of extreme events will we have to endure by 2060, when the planet could already be 4 °C hotter and counting? We need to start planning for a future of much wilder weather now, to prepare for ever more ferocious heatwaves, storms, floods and droughts. For example, building codes should be toughened so that homes and offices can withstand whatever is thrown at them. Vital infrastructure should be situated in areas far from the risk of floods and other natural disasters, as Thailand learned the hard way last year when an economically important industrial site was destroyed by floodwater. We are in this position as a result of decades of foot-dragging over emissions cuts and cleanenergy investment. That was perhaps understandable given the distant and abstract nature of the threat. Now the threat has become a real and present danger. Those who offer blithe reassurances of our ability to adapt need to start putting their money where their mouths are. n
Our mistaken defence priorities IN 1908, a small asteroid exploded in the sky above Siberia, flattening a vast area of remote forest. Had the airburst happened over a big city, countless people would have been killed without warning. If a similar object were hurtling towards Earth today, it would probably be spotted in good time to evacuate anyone living in harm’s way – at least for the time being. Next month the only
telescope scanning the southern hemisphere sky for dangerous space rocks will shut down for lack of money. It won’t be replaced until 2017 at the earliest. In the interim, Earth’s defences will have a blind spot. Panic stations? Not quite. The chance of another asteroid on the scale of 1908 hitting before 2017 is minuscule, and any threat will probably be visible from the
northern hemisphere at some point. The real worry is that without continuous monitoring, evacuation time will be lost. That is still ample reason not to accept the closure and just hope for the best. Keeping the telescope running for five more years would cost about $1 million. In the same period, global “defence” spending will be about $7.5 trillion. It seems we have our priorities wrong. n 7 July 2012 | NewScientist | 5