Grim outlook for the Twenty-first Century

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 69-71. 1981. Prinled in Great Brilain.

Grim Outlook for the Twenty-first Century The Global 2000 Report to the President (of the U.S.A.) Entering the Twenty First Century, volume 1, the Summary Report (Price $3.50), volume 2, the Technical Report (Price $13.00) and volume 3, The Government's Technical Model (Price $8.00) is obtainable from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. It is a document prepared by the Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State and has its origin in a directive included in President Carter's Environmental Message to the Congress of May 23, 1977, which included the following passage: " I am directing the Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State, working in cooperation with t h e Environmental Protection Agency, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other appropriate agencies, to make a l-yr study of the probable changes in the world's population, natural resources and environment through the end of the century. This study will serve as the foundation of our longer-term planning." In fact the study was extended over a 3 yr period, hardly surprising in view of the content of the report. I have been able to see only a copy of the Summary Report (Vol. 1, 47 pages) which had clipped to it short extracts from Vol. 2, the Technical Report. Three points should be emphasized at the outset about this remarkable document. Firstly it is a set of projections not predictions; projections based on the assumptions that national policies regarding population stabilization, resource conservation and environmental protection will remain essentially unchanged through the end of the century. But it is noted that, in fact, policies are already beginning to change for the better, and several examples are given. Secondly, the Report relates to conditions only 20 years ahead, and thirdly, although produced in the United States, the Report is global in character and application. It could serve widely as the basis for action both nationally and internationally and, indeed, it is to the U.N. Agencies that one looks for an immediate response. It is a picture of almost unrelieved gloom, with all the truly vital needs of the world (food, fuel, water supply, etc.) in short supply and population swelled immensely. As noted above, since these are projections, no allowance is made for improved human perception or behaviour or for new discoveries and it is here that the greatest hope lies. Unfortunately, although many will conclude that the causes of the worst problems originate in the developed and industrialized nations (for example reckless overconsumption of food, energy and many raw materials) their consequences are often most evident in the less developed nations where the application of remedies (such as improved cropping practices and population control) may be exceedingly difficult. Curiously enough, almost the only bright spot in the report is the outlook for non-fuel minerals;

0025-326X/81/030069~)3 $02.00/0 © 1981 Pergamon Press Ltd.

reserves of virtually all the essential minerals are already adequate to carry us through to the twenty-first century, assuming existing trends in usage continue until that time, and new discoveries of importance and significant substitutions will almost certainly be made during the interim years. Starting at the beginning - global population is expected to increase by 50070by the year 2000, i.e. to 6.35 billion with 100 million people added each year. Nearly all this growth will occur in the poorest countries and the economic gap between the richest and the poorest is expected to widen, with large numbers in the less developed countries (LDCs), especially in South Asia, remaining below $200 (1975 values) gross national product per capita. Only in the LDCs in Latin America is a dramatic improvement in per capita income anticipated. World food production is expected to increase by 90% from 1970 to 2000 but the increase in arable land projected is only 4% so that most of the extra yield must come from improved yields per hectare. Most unfortunately, most of the factors upon which improved yields depend (extra fertilizers, pesticides, machinery and irrigation) are heavily dependent for their realization upon oil and gas. Oil production is expected to reach the maximum production capacity shortly before the close of this century, but will undoubtedly be accompanied by much higher real prices. In consequence the extra supplies will go mainly to the industrialized countries where much of it will be used to little good global purpose, while less developed countries with poor natural resources will be unable to afford to increase their supplies. Fuel and water shortages will undoubtedly create some of the most serious problems. Developed countries are already feeling the pinch of reduced and more expensive oil supplies, but the position of the .world's poorer nations, largely dependent upon wood for heating, is already desperate. As indigenous wood supplies are used up these peoples burn dung and crop residues in increasing amounts and this leads to loss of land fertility and hence towards reduced yields - a very vicious circle indeed. There is already scarcely a developed country which does not lack sufficient piped water for domestic and industrial supplies but fortunately, in a great many, actual rainfall is sufficient and adequate conservation is the obvious solution. However, there are large areas of the earth where agricultural production is limited by shortage of water and deserts are constantly creeping further over the land. Some at least of the remedies are clear but their application in countries starved of power supplies and natural resources, from which foreign currency can be obtained, is exceedingly difficult. The outlook for increased production of food from the sea is little better. World supplies of fish are not expected to increase and, indeed, many experts are beginning to wonder whether they can be maintained. Possibly there may be a breakthrough in methods of artificial culture which could add significantly to global supplies. Recent progress in conservation has been on such a modest scale that there must certainly be doubts about maintaining production from current fisheries, while, apart from the krill of the Antarctic, squids of all kinds and mesopelagic fish, the untapped sources of supply seem to be very meagre. These three resources may be quite large, particularly krill, but in each 69

Marine Pollution Bulletin

case there are likely to be severe marketing problems if used for human consumption. Aquaculture offers better prospects of increased production, and some of the established techniques are applicable in countries in South Asia and Africa where the need for additional protein is greatest. This is particularly true of molluscs: yields comparable with those from good pasture land can be obtained from coastal flats, only a tiny percentage of which is at present utilized. Moreover, there are proven culture methods which, although developed in industrialized countries such as Japan, the Netherlands, France and Spain, could be adapted with little modification to meet the needs of developing countries in Asia and Africa. Unfortunately most of the favoured species of marine fish are carnivorous and fish-farming becomes little more than a means of converting low-grade protein into high quality fish flesh. Molluscs, on the other hand, are mostly filter feeders living on natural plankton, the production of which may be encouraged by suitable fertilization and other techniques. Freshwater fish stocks are not considered to be capable of much improvement but fish culture in freshwater ponds and channels is capable of giving increased supplies and is already well developed in areas (such as South Asia) where there is most need. Increasing population means more industry, more wastes and increased pollution and, although this does not seem to be at present a factor significantly depressing production from the sea, it cannot be said that this will always be so. There is increasing danger that supplies from coastal waters, although sustained in volume, may become increasingly inedible because of residues of persistent wastes such as heavy metals and pesticides. The report deals with these questions at some length; it is concluded that pollution has already degraded the marine environment and reduced production particularly in estuaries and coastal waters. It should be remembered in this connection that species of fish and shellfish which obligatorily spend part or the whole of their life cycle in estuaries or coastal shallows figure very largely in the catches from North America, although less prominently in northern Europe. In the report, the main threat is believed to come, not from spectacular effects, such as massive oil spills and the discharge or dumping of highly toxic substances such as certain heavy metals, but from the slow development of chronic low-level pollution, particularly by persistent substances. Such pollution is unnoticed at first but is expected to build up over a long time-span, even hundreds of years, to a level where marine resources are jeopardized. The point is made that "demonstrable effects to marine resources are seldom available within time spans that could effectively stop the pollution prior to adverse accumulations". In a further striking passage the main problem is spelt out: " H o w a given material will affect components of the ocean, and how much of a substance or habitat modification jeopardizes a resource requires an ability to predict events in the ocean. This in turn requires a knowledge of the natural processes in the undisturbed system. It is highly problematical that such knowledcge will be accumulated rapidly enough to detect and correct adverse effects. ' ' Not everyone is ready to accept that marine living resources are under threat in this way from long-term 70

persistent pollutants. There is no convincing evidence that the PCB story is about to be repeated in respect of other persistent organics. The position with regard to mercury and cadmium is fairly well understood and the importance of persistence in sediments has been recognized. This is a difficult problem with many persistent pollutants and perhaps some of those which may be potentially damaging have not been identified as yet but already certain persistent organics which have been found to be widespread in the environment have been pronounced to be harmless, e.g. phthalates. Recently scares have been raised in respect of certain petroleum hydrocarbons which, in certain circumstances, may be carcinogenic but the general consensus of view is that the seas are dealing rather well with the amount ofoil at present put into them and no long-term threat to either marine living resources or their human consumers has been established. Indeed, in respect of certain hydrocarbons under suspicion, oil is not the main source of those present in the marine environment - other sources including natural metabolic and breakdown procedures are more important. The open oceans are seen as less at risk than coastal waters but certain substances, e.g. radioactive wastes, cause anxiety and few are satisfied with the methods of disposal of these wastes so far developed. The importance of aerial transport to the oceans of many pollutants is stressed in the Global 2000 report and some projections are available concerning future atmospheric loads, arising, for example, from increased consumption of coal and oil. The Report anticipates much enhanced usage of coastal areas for human settlement, industry and recreation and goes into some detail concerning the environmental impact of such increased coastal area developments. It is concluded that coastal water quality will be degraded and that this and the physical effects of development, including additional sewage and industrial wastes, will have a harmful effect on the living resources of coastal and shelf waters, it is recognized that many recreational activities demand a high standard of water quality so that industrial development and recreational usage are to some extent incompatible. On the other hand, such high standards of water quality are conducive to the maintenance of suitable conditions for fish and shellfish so that recreational use and fisheries can exist together with efficient planning. It seems that the current interest of the United Nations in the encouragement of effective planning and management of coastal area development, particularly in LDCs, is very timely. The actual projections contain some very interesting and arresting material, for example marine transport is expected to have increased three- to seven-fold by the year 2000. To accommodate and service this increased marine traffic, existing port facilities will have to be expanded significantly and this will entail corresponding increases in human settlement and secondary economic developments. Increasing marine traffic will inevitably bring proportional increases in catastrophic spillages and operational losses from ships such as ballast discharges and tank washings. One may ask whether, taking the broad view, there are really more than two problems-over-population and reliance upon non-renewable sources of energy. If these were solved certainly the outlook for natural resources and the environment would be vastly improved if not revolutionized. Certainly population stabilization is accepted as a

Volume 12/Number 3/March 1981

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sensible policy in all but a few parts of the world and population reduction is looked for by some of the world's most advanced nations. Nowhere is the amount of effort directed towards the solution of this problem approaching adequacy and in many countries (including the U.K.) more human endeavour and ingenuity is directed towards the solution of the fertility problems of childless couples• Moreover, nowhere in the world is the R. & D. effort to provide alternative sources of power to oil, gas and coal commensurate with the urgency and scale of the problem. Those natural sources of immense power, waves and the wind, are largely neglected, while efforts to tap the immense sources of heat in the earth's crust attract little support• This despite the fact that we are treated several times a year to terrifying demonstrations of the vast energy sources which can be released by volcanic outbursts and similar phenomena• Even energy conservation, for example by restricting usage of oil or gas, makes a rather poor showing although the path forward is obvious• Too many seem ready to accept the philosophy that "it will never happen"; if it does nothing else, this Report, based as it is on the continuation of existing trends for no more than 20 years, should shake a few people out of their present complacency• As pointed out in the Report "long lead times are required for effective action"• If there is delay this has the effect of steadily reducing the options available while the problems become increasingly acute• Of course it will be said that we have had predictions of

similar disasters before but it is noteworthy that this exercise reaches very similar conclusions to those global studies (reviewed in the report) which have preceded it, and the uncomfortable feeling is growing that the projections represent the future and that time for action to alter the trends is running out. It is a grim picture that is being painted and if it is to be prevented from becoming reality, concerted international and regional cooperation will be needed on a scale far beyond anything so far contemplated. Moreover this cooperation must be extended to almost every side of human activity, and continue for decades, if the gap between the rich and the poor is not to be greatly extended and the shareout of the world's resources to become even more unbalanced than it is at present• Fortunately many of the dangers are now clearly recognized and although some of the remedies are very difficult to apply, it is reasonably clear that two basic problems affecting most others are population stabilization and energy conservation• In both fields possible ways forward are already evident and the main requirements seem to be to admit their prime importance and to give their solution absolute priority• If this were done secondary problems like food, fuel and water shortages and the protection of the environment could be attacked with new hope. The time for further 'megaconferences' is past, what is needed now is action to change the policies of nations. It is appropriate that the U.S. should give the lead but we must all follow• H. A. COLE

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