- Email: [email protected]
Indian futures texts
364
Annotated bibliography
Institute of Applied (IIASA) in Austria.
Systems
Analysis
To Choose a Future (Stockholm, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1974; Swedish original: Att vilja framtid, SOU, 1972) The relationship between futures studies and public decision making and planning is a central issue in this report. Alva Myrdal, then a member of the Cabinet, was chairman of a commission set up to give
Indian futures
Satish
advice on the development of futures studies in Sweden. According to its report, futures studies should rather make it possible for people to shape the future than passively allowing it to be shaped for us. Several possible futures therefore need to be presented, to strengthen democratic control over societal development. The report resulted in the establishment of a new governmental organ, the Secretariat for futures studies, the following year.
texts
C. Seth
This bibliographical note is divided into five sections establishing the progression of futures work and thinking in India since 1970. Each section catalogues only an illustrative and not an exhaustive listing. It particularly omits all references to articles pertaining to the future that have appeared in the Indian newspapers and journals, specifically those that appeared in the Indian Review of Management and Future. (I) The Second India series sponsored and funded by the Ford Foundation of India constitutes the earlier futures-related studies of the 1970s. Many individual scholars were entrusted the task of developing descriptive scenarios in areas like industry, housing, energy and so on, on the premise, that by 2000 AD India’s population, would double. Similarly, the Ford Foundation also sponsored studies for different states to catalogue likely sectoral needs and developments up to the year 2000 AD. Only a few Second India national-level studies are available as printed books. Illustratively, see: M. C. Chaturvedi, Second India Studies: Water (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1976) Satlsh C. Seth, EB-166, Maya Enclave, G-8 Area, New Delhi-110 064, India (Tel: 540-2903).
H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Industry (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1975) H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Overview (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1978). (2) Another set of futures-related database studies partly inspired by the Ford Foundation came from the Operations Research Croup (ORC), Baroda. These studies constitute extrapolated projections; some studies are woven around the Indian demographic and housing sector database. Also see: A. Lahiri, Minerals and Metals: lndia (Baroda, ORC, 1975) Operations Perspective, Heinemann,
2000 AD in
Research Group, India in Vol 1 (New Delhi, Arnold1977)
D. N. Basu, Operations Research Group, Consumption Pattern and Life Style in India in Perspective, Vol 2 (New Delhi, Arnold-Heinemann, 1977). (3) The Department of Science and Technology (DST) was created in 1970. ‘Futurology’ was one of the items entrusted to it by the Government of India. In 1973, a National Committee on Science and Technology Futurology Panel was set up with Dr Satish C. Seth as its
FUTURES
April
1993
Annotated bibliography
member-secretary. Its earlier documents are mostly cyclostyled materials dealing with the approach and methodology that the Futurology Panel and its working groups may adopt in the fields of food, energy, housing, communication, transrural development, urban portation, development, management and education. These reports were based on official data and offered two scenarios-a trend and a ‘preferred future scenario’ for each given sector. All nine such reports are included in the Government of India publication entitled: An Outlook for India’s Future (2000 AD), Interim Reports on Futurology, Energy, Housing, Transport Development, Communications, Urbanology, Rural Development, Food, Management and Education; National Committee on Science and Technology (New Delhi, Covt of India Press, 1978). S. C. Seth (editor). Cyclostyled Documents of Historical value for Researchers, include the base document of Futurology, NCST Publication (cyclostyled) S. C. Seth (editor), An Outlook for India’s Future: (2000 AD): A Summary of Methodology, Approach and Views (cyclostyled) S. C. Seth (editor), NCST Panel on Futurology Background Papers and Special Notes for Discussion: Futurology (New Delhi, NCST, 1974, cyclostyled). (4a) ies:
Writings
specifically
on futures
stud-
M. S. lyengar, ‘Technology Assessment and its Relevance to the Developing Countries, The Hague Conference Proceedings 11973). (Note: Also see M. S. lyengar’s contributions in Japan Society of Futurology, Proceedings of the International Conference (Kodnasha, Japan, 1970), Also, see, M. S. lyengar, ‘Are there any limits to growth’, Indian Administrative and Management Review
365
nology, Short Studies in Futures Research (New Delhi, Covt of India, 1980) Satish C. Seth, India: The Next 7000 Days (New Delhi, Wiley Eastern Ltd, 1985). A lucid introduction to the concept and methodology of futures studies. Establishes its significance for the three major instrumentalities of change and development, namely, education, management and technology. The book also delineates a few national and sectoral scenarios for India. Satish C. Seth, Future Scan and Anticipatory Management (New Delhi, CAM, 1988). The author pleads that management should, hereafter, be seen in terms of the future. Managers should first scan the future and then work to realize one’s preferred goals. This is an indispensable work for policy makers, planners and industrial managers more specifically of the Third World countries. The book is being widely used for the M Phil/M Tech courses at Indian universities and for secondary schools’ futurology teacher training programmes. Satish C. Seth, Rebuilding Bureaucracy for the 2lst Century (New Delhi, CAM, 1990). This book advocates the use of position classification as against the ranking system for organizing bureaucracy. It specifically addresses the questions of the administrative reform of the Indian bureaucracy. It emphasizes that bureaucrats have to be trained in futures studies in order to become an effective force to cope with the challenges of the 21st century. The book gives a good bibliographical review and also includes futurology games and exercises for trainers and educators in futures studies in Indian schools, colleges and universities. (4b) Sectoral books: These books provide sectoral futuresrelated thinking in specific areas such as urbanization, economics, education, social and political futures:
P. K. Rohatgi and B. Bowonder, Technology ForecastingcDelhi, Tata McGraw Hill, 1980)
A. Bose, A. Mitra, P. B. Desai and J. N. Sharma, Population in India’s Deveiopment: 7947-2000 (Bombay, Vikas, 1975)
National Committee
C. K. N. Nair, Natural
FUTURES April 1993
on Science and Tech-
Rubber
Research
up
366
Annotated bibliography
to 2000 AD (India, Rubber Planters ence, 1974)
Confer-
Study in Futurism Publications, 1976).
M. 5. Swaminathan, Our Agriculture Future, Sardar Pate1 Memorial Lecture 1973 (New Delhi, All India Radio, 1973) 6. N. Banerjee, India on the Threshold of the Zlst Century (New Delhi, Paribus Publications, 1986) Ashsis Bose, India’s Urbanization 19012001 (Delhi, Tata McGraw Hill, 1978) Kothari Rajni, Footsteps into the Future (New Delhi, Orient Longman, 1974) Kothari Rajni, ‘World order perspective on the futures’, in S. R. Cupta (editor), India; A
Australian
and South
(New
Delhi,
Abhinav
(5) In addition to the above titles, an important bibliographical reference is that of the Indian Journal on Futurology, Indian Review of Management and Future, (1977901, a successor to the Indian Administrative and Management Review, (1969-75). Both journals were started and edited by Dr Satish C. Seth. These journals had an international editorial advisory board. The different issues of these quarterly journals contain a valuable and comprehensive record of Indian developments in futurology and includes articles written by Indian and international scholars in futures studies. A combined bound IO-volume record of these journals is now available at a cost of US$350 excluding airmail postage (ISSN: 0019-4928).
Asian futures
texts
Tony Stevenson C. Birch, Confronting the Future--Australia and the World: The Next Hundred Years (Ringwood, Victoria, Penguin, 1975) Almost two decades ago, the biologist Charles Birch warned in lay terms of the consequences of lacking a global vision for a possible world. Then, he saw the world at the crossroads: either humankind would perpetuate past values, drift or seek a totally new orientation. In Australia, he saw the possibility for humanity to control itself and its technology-to act against the unsustainable society. It could be a mirror for the world, in that it was remote, small in population, and a lucky country that had not experienced war (he is forgetting the European invasion on Aboriginal
Tony Stevenson, Director, The Communications Centre, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, Gardens Point, 2 George Street, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane Q 4001, Australia.
Australia) or natural disaster, simply basking in the sun eating steak. He presents a case for hope in the face of facts which are stacked against a change in public awareness of the world problematique, the cargo cult mentality, human self-centredness and class-consciousness, and unworkable free world governments. W. L. Hare (editor), J. P. Marlow, M. L. Rae, F. Gray, R. Humphries and R. Ledgar, Ecologically Sustainable Development (Melbourne, Victoria, Australian Conservation Foundation, Greenpeace (Australia), The Wilderness Society and World Wide Fund for Nature-Australia, 1990) This cooperative submission responds to an Australian government paper on ecologically sustainable development. The analysis integrates economics, which is traditionally and primarily concerned with quantitative growth, with ecological sustainability, which emphasizes qualitative aspects, including: biodiversity, social and
FUTURES
April
1993
Annotated bibliography
Institute of Applied (IIASA) in Austria.
Systems
Analysis
To Choose a Future (Stockholm, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1974; Swedish original: Att vilja framtid, SOU, 1972) The relationship between futures studies and public decision making and planning is a central issue in this report. Alva Myrdal, then a member of the Cabinet, was chairman of a commission set up to give
Indian futures
Satish
advice on the development of futures studies in Sweden. According to its report, futures studies should rather make it possible for people to shape the future than passively allowing it to be shaped for us. Several possible futures therefore need to be presented, to strengthen democratic control over societal development. The report resulted in the establishment of a new governmental organ, the Secretariat for futures studies, the following year.
texts
C. Seth
This bibliographical note is divided into five sections establishing the progression of futures work and thinking in India since 1970. Each section catalogues only an illustrative and not an exhaustive listing. It particularly omits all references to articles pertaining to the future that have appeared in the Indian newspapers and journals, specifically those that appeared in the Indian Review of Management and Future. (I) The Second India series sponsored and funded by the Ford Foundation of India constitutes the earlier futures-related studies of the 1970s. Many individual scholars were entrusted the task of developing descriptive scenarios in areas like industry, housing, energy and so on, on the premise, that by 2000 AD India’s population, would double. Similarly, the Ford Foundation also sponsored studies for different states to catalogue likely sectoral needs and developments up to the year 2000 AD. Only a few Second India national-level studies are available as printed books. Illustratively, see: M. C. Chaturvedi, Second India Studies: Water (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1976) Satlsh C. Seth, EB-166, Maya Enclave, G-8 Area, New Delhi-110 064, India (Tel: 540-2903).
H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Industry (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1975) H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Overview (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1978). (2) Another set of futures-related database studies partly inspired by the Ford Foundation came from the Operations Research Croup (ORC), Baroda. These studies constitute extrapolated projections; some studies are woven around the Indian demographic and housing sector database. Also see: A. Lahiri, Minerals and Metals: lndia (Baroda, ORC, 1975) Operations Perspective, Heinemann,
2000 AD in
Research Group, India in Vol 1 (New Delhi, Arnold1977)
D. N. Basu, Operations Research Group, Consumption Pattern and Life Style in India in Perspective, Vol 2 (New Delhi, Arnold-Heinemann, 1977). (3) The Department of Science and Technology (DST) was created in 1970. ‘Futurology’ was one of the items entrusted to it by the Government of India. In 1973, a National Committee on Science and Technology Futurology Panel was set up with Dr Satish C. Seth as its
FUTURES
April
1993
Annotated bibliography
member-secretary. Its earlier documents are mostly cyclostyled materials dealing with the approach and methodology that the Futurology Panel and its working groups may adopt in the fields of food, energy, housing, communication, transrural development, urban portation, development, management and education. These reports were based on official data and offered two scenarios-a trend and a ‘preferred future scenario’ for each given sector. All nine such reports are included in the Government of India publication entitled: An Outlook for India’s Future (2000 AD), Interim Reports on Futurology, Energy, Housing, Transport Development, Communications, Urbanology, Rural Development, Food, Management and Education; National Committee on Science and Technology (New Delhi, Covt of India Press, 1978). S. C. Seth (editor). Cyclostyled Documents of Historical value for Researchers, include the base document of Futurology, NCST Publication (cyclostyled) S. C. Seth (editor), An Outlook for India’s Future: (2000 AD): A Summary of Methodology, Approach and Views (cyclostyled) S. C. Seth (editor), NCST Panel on Futurology Background Papers and Special Notes for Discussion: Futurology (New Delhi, NCST, 1974, cyclostyled). (4a) ies:
Writings
specifically
on futures
stud-
M. S. lyengar, ‘Technology Assessment and its Relevance to the Developing Countries, The Hague Conference Proceedings 11973). (Note: Also see M. S. lyengar’s contributions in Japan Society of Futurology, Proceedings of the International Conference (Kodnasha, Japan, 1970), Also, see, M. S. lyengar, ‘Are there any limits to growth’, Indian Administrative and Management Review
365
nology, Short Studies in Futures Research (New Delhi, Covt of India, 1980) Satish C. Seth, India: The Next 7000 Days (New Delhi, Wiley Eastern Ltd, 1985). A lucid introduction to the concept and methodology of futures studies. Establishes its significance for the three major instrumentalities of change and development, namely, education, management and technology. The book also delineates a few national and sectoral scenarios for India. Satish C. Seth, Future Scan and Anticipatory Management (New Delhi, CAM, 1988). The author pleads that management should, hereafter, be seen in terms of the future. Managers should first scan the future and then work to realize one’s preferred goals. This is an indispensable work for policy makers, planners and industrial managers more specifically of the Third World countries. The book is being widely used for the M Phil/M Tech courses at Indian universities and for secondary schools’ futurology teacher training programmes. Satish C. Seth, Rebuilding Bureaucracy for the 2lst Century (New Delhi, CAM, 1990). This book advocates the use of position classification as against the ranking system for organizing bureaucracy. It specifically addresses the questions of the administrative reform of the Indian bureaucracy. It emphasizes that bureaucrats have to be trained in futures studies in order to become an effective force to cope with the challenges of the 21st century. The book gives a good bibliographical review and also includes futurology games and exercises for trainers and educators in futures studies in Indian schools, colleges and universities. (4b) Sectoral books: These books provide sectoral futuresrelated thinking in specific areas such as urbanization, economics, education, social and political futures:
P. K. Rohatgi and B. Bowonder, Technology ForecastingcDelhi, Tata McGraw Hill, 1980)
A. Bose, A. Mitra, P. B. Desai and J. N. Sharma, Population in India’s Deveiopment: 7947-2000 (Bombay, Vikas, 1975)
National Committee
C. K. N. Nair, Natural
FUTURES April 1993
on Science and Tech-
Rubber
Research
up
366
Annotated bibliography
to 2000 AD (India, Rubber Planters ence, 1974)
Confer-
Study in Futurism Publications, 1976).
M. 5. Swaminathan, Our Agriculture Future, Sardar Pate1 Memorial Lecture 1973 (New Delhi, All India Radio, 1973) 6. N. Banerjee, India on the Threshold of the Zlst Century (New Delhi, Paribus Publications, 1986) Ashsis Bose, India’s Urbanization 19012001 (Delhi, Tata McGraw Hill, 1978) Kothari Rajni, Footsteps into the Future (New Delhi, Orient Longman, 1974) Kothari Rajni, ‘World order perspective on the futures’, in S. R. Cupta (editor), India; A
Australian
and South
(New
Delhi,
Abhinav
(5) In addition to the above titles, an important bibliographical reference is that of the Indian Journal on Futurology, Indian Review of Management and Future, (1977901, a successor to the Indian Administrative and Management Review, (1969-75). Both journals were started and edited by Dr Satish C. Seth. These journals had an international editorial advisory board. The different issues of these quarterly journals contain a valuable and comprehensive record of Indian developments in futurology and includes articles written by Indian and international scholars in futures studies. A combined bound IO-volume record of these journals is now available at a cost of US$350 excluding airmail postage (ISSN: 0019-4928).
Asian futures
texts
Tony Stevenson C. Birch, Confronting the Future--Australia and the World: The Next Hundred Years (Ringwood, Victoria, Penguin, 1975) Almost two decades ago, the biologist Charles Birch warned in lay terms of the consequences of lacking a global vision for a possible world. Then, he saw the world at the crossroads: either humankind would perpetuate past values, drift or seek a totally new orientation. In Australia, he saw the possibility for humanity to control itself and its technology-to act against the unsustainable society. It could be a mirror for the world, in that it was remote, small in population, and a lucky country that had not experienced war (he is forgetting the European invasion on Aboriginal
Tony Stevenson, Director, The Communications Centre, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, Gardens Point, 2 George Street, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane Q 4001, Australia.
Australia) or natural disaster, simply basking in the sun eating steak. He presents a case for hope in the face of facts which are stacked against a change in public awareness of the world problematique, the cargo cult mentality, human self-centredness and class-consciousness, and unworkable free world governments. W. L. Hare (editor), J. P. Marlow, M. L. Rae, F. Gray, R. Humphries and R. Ledgar, Ecologically Sustainable Development (Melbourne, Victoria, Australian Conservation Foundation, Greenpeace (Australia), The Wilderness Society and World Wide Fund for Nature-Australia, 1990) This cooperative submission responds to an Australian government paper on ecologically sustainable development. The analysis integrates economics, which is traditionally and primarily concerned with quantitative growth, with ecological sustainability, which emphasizes qualitative aspects, including: biodiversity, social and
FUTURES
April
1993