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Quantifying the Coordination of Energy Development and Environmental Protection: A Case Study of China
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
CUE2016-Applied Energy Symposium and Forum 2016: Low carbon cities & urban energy systems
Quantifying the Coordination of Energy Development and Environmental Protection: a Case Study of China Fang Zhao a, Wenqiang Zhang a, Yetang Wangb* a
Business School, Unversity of Jinan, Jinan 250002,China College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014,China
b
Abstract
Today, balancing energy development with the desire to protect the environment remains a challenge in the world, especially in developing countries such as China. To make public policy for the balancing of alternative futures, quantification of the coordination between energy development and environmental protection is required. To achieve this end, we firstly establish the index system of energy-environment comprehensive development. Then we calculate the coordination degree of energy development and environment protection by means of principal component analysis and membership function of fuzzy mathematics. The resulting coordination of energy and environment systems in China during 2000-2012 is low with an average coordination degree of 0.6301. In 5 years, energy and environment systems are in the status of incoordination to different extents. To further improve the coordinated status, based on phenomenon analyses and economic theoretical interpretation on the reasons behind, some helpful policies are suggested, including establishment of a policy guarantee system for a coordinated development, implementation of energy green insurance and standardization of new energy market etc.. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Selection and/or peer-reviewofunder responsibility of of CUE Peer-review under responsibility the scientific committee the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum, CUE2016: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems. Keywords: Energy Development; Environmental Protection˗Coordination Degree
1. Introduction The concept of coordination has been widely applied to the modern science and culture. The coordination of a compound system is the mutual dependency, mutual restraints, harmonious coexistence
*Yetang Wang. Tel.: +86-156-1010-0956. E-mail address: [email protected].
1876-6102 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum, CUE2016: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.12.088
Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
among the respective systems under the influence of self-organization in the internal system and management activities from the outside. In the development process, respective systems coexist in harmony with each other showing multiple relations of cooperation, complementation and synchronization etc., which reflects the ordered structure and status of the compound system. However, many contradictions and conflicts exist in the development process between energy system and environment system. For example, the traditional energy structure with the coal and petroleum as the dominance decides the large amount of pollutants such as waste gas and water discharged in the process of energy production and consumption, which caused the deterioration of environmental quality. Environmental factors such as environmental capacity also create apparent restrictions on the energy development. What’s more, energy departments of many countries have to pay high development costs due to the international performance. In this context, thorough and deep research on the coordinated status of the “two systems” of energy development and environmental protection has great significance for governments to deepen its understanding of “two systems”, contribute to solving contradictions of “two systems”, and draw up the scientific development planning for promoting healthy and sustainable development of the society. To determine relations between energy and environment systems, Pearson and Peter [1] mainly quantified environmental effects of energy production and transformation. Sinton et al. [2] focused on shared environmental responsibilities of the respective countries concerning the global climate change from the perspective of energy policy. Lorna and Steve [3] designed coordinated energy and environmental policies by means of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Vahid et al. [4] employed a simultaneous equations system to find out interactions between energy and environment on long and short timescales in Iran during the period 1974-2012. According to his studies, per capita CO2 emissions and energy consumption exhibit the strongest relationships and elasticities in the equations system as a whole on long timescale. Energy consumption should be reduced to decrease environmental pollution and improve the level of system coordination. In China, many studies also center on energy development and its relations with environment. Li Zhuoya [5] pointed out that China’s industrialized economy brings the growth of energy production and consumption demand, but the unreasonable energy structure and low efficiency of the energy utilization cause the imbalance between China’s environmental pollution and ecological system. The author put forward measures such as building green energy consumption pattern for the enhancement of coordination between energy and environment. Generally speaking, certain limitations still exist for the relevant research. For example, the evaluation system and the measuring methodologies with general guidance have not been formed to convert two different systems into a unified system. In addition, policy studies considering the coordinated status of energy and environment in a specific country are still limited, especially for developing countries. These limited studies did not provide adequately targeted policies according to internal contradictions between systems and the reasons behind. Energy police studies are often lack of full interaction and integration with environmental policy research. The main originality of this paper is that by building a comprehensive evaluation index system and applying membership function of fuzzy mathematics, it clarifies the current coordinated status of energy and environment systems in China. Meanwhile it conducts phenomenon analyses and economic theoretical interpretation on those incoordinations. This paper also tires to provide some creative suggestions on future government polices aiming at promoting the coordinated development of energy and environment. 2. Design of the index system The two-dimensional index system of the comprehensive development level of energy and environment is established: one dimension is the energy and environment index, measured with the index
521
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Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
of energy comprehensive development level C and the index of environmental comprehensive development level D respectively. Both of them have 13 specific evaluation indicators. The other dimension is the index of total amount and speed, structure and ratio, quality and benefit, which are measured respectively with X as the index of total amount, Y as the index of structure, Z as the index of quality (see Table 1). According to the nature of the contribution to system development level, the original indicators in the table are divided into positive indicator (with no mark, the bigger the indicator value is, the better) and negative indicator (marked with “n”, the smaller the indicator value is, the better). Table.1 Index system of the comprehensive development level of energy & environment system Index of total amount X
Comprehensive development level of energy (C)
C1 total energy production (TCE) C2 total energy consumption (TCE) C3 urban energy industry investment (100 million yuan) C4 total oil imports (10 KT)
D1
D2 Comprehensive development level of environment (D)
D3
D4
D5
total discharge of waste water (billion tons) (n) total discharge of smoke (10 KT) (n) total discharge of industrial solid waste (billion tons) (n) total discharge of industrial SO2 (10 KT) (n) total discharge of COD (10 KT) (n)
Index of structure Y C5 coal consumption ratio (%) (n) C6 proportion of oil and natural gas production (%) C7 ratio of power consumption growth to GDP growth (%) (n) C8 proportion of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power in total energy production (%) C9 proportion of thermal power in power output % (n)
D6 proportion of total investment in environmental pollution treatment in GDP (%) D7 forest coverage rate (%) D8 proportion of natural reserve area in jurisdiction area (%) D9 comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste (%)
Index of quality Z C10 electricity consumption per unit GDP (KW.H/ten thousand yuan) (n) C11 energy consumption per unit GDP (TCE/ten thousand yuan) (n) C12 electricity consumption / population (KW.H) C13 energy consumption/population (KGCE)
D10 annual average concentration of SO2 in major cities (mg/ cubic meter) (n) D11 annual average concentration of pm in major cities (mg/ cubic meter) (n) D12 urban public green area per capita (square meter/ person) D13 average water resource amount per capita (cubic meter / person)
3. Empirical measurement First of all, we converse the value of indicator with currency unit into the constant value of the year 2000 (2000=100), then conduct the positive transformation for negative indicators with reciprocal. One principal component XC1 is extracted from total amount and speed index of energy development (C1-C4), which represents 99.193% of the information of original data. As a result, the total amount index of energy development XC=0.99193XC1 is got (see Table 2). In the same way, we can get the structure index of energy development Yc=0.56709YC1+0.26187YC2+0.14050YC3 and the quality index of energy development ZC=0.93690ZC1. If we extract principal components from environmental indicators, the total amount index of environmental development XD=0.58405XD1+0.23867XD2+0.16575XD3 can be gained. The structure index of environmental development YD=0.81833YD1+0.11819YD2 and the quality index of environmental development ZD=0.47595ZD1+0.32063ZD2+0.14160ZD3 can also be acquired.
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Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
Table.2 Principal component extraction results of energy total amount index Component
Initial Eigenvalues
Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Total
% of Variance
Cumulative %
Total
% of Variance
Cumulative %
1
3.968
99.193
99.193
3.968
99.193
99.193
2
.024
.599
99.792
3
.007
.185
99.977
4
.001
.023
100.000
At the present stage of social development, the increase of total amount, the reasonable structure and the improvement of quality are all important labels and guarantee for the healthy development of Chinese society. Therefore, if the proportion of the total amount, structure and quality of energy development are equal, the index of the comprehensive development level of energy can be calculated by the following formula. C=α1XC+α2YC+α3ZC (1) Where, α1, α2, α3 are the weighting coefficients of total amount index, structure index and quality index respectively, α1+α2+α3=1. In the same way, D=γ1XD+γ2YD+γ3ZD. The index of environment comprehensive development level D can be gained. Using the concept of membership grade in the fuzzy mathematics to describe the coordination between two systems and reflecting the membership grade change law through the membership function, we can establish the coordination degree function: U (i / j ) exp[( Fi F ' ) 2 / S 2 ] (2) Where: U(i/j) is the coordination degree of system i relative to system j, Fi is the actual value of comprehensive development level index of system i in that year; F’ is the coordination value of system i required by system j; s2 is the variance of the actual value of system i. We can evaluate the coordinated status between two systems with the coordination degree U. (3) U (i, j) min{u(i / j), u( j / i)}/ max{u(i / j), u( j / i)} Where: U(i,j) is the coordination degree of system i and system j; u(j/i) is the coordination degree of system j relative to system i. Substitute the index(C, D) of energy and environment comprehensive development level gained above to the formula (2), (3), we can get the coordination degree between the two systems( see Fig 1).
Fig.1 Coordination degree of energy and environment systems
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Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
4. Result and discussion The value of coordination degree is generally in the interval of (0,1). When the coordination degree is 1, it means complete coordination. 0 represents complete incoordination. The classification for the coordination level is as follows: Table.3 System coordination degree classification (OECD, 1998) [6] Coordination
0≤U<0.4
0.4≤U<0.5
0.5≤U<0.6
0.6≤U<0.7
0.7≤U<0.8
0.8≤U<0.9
0.9≤U<1
Coordination evaluation
Seriously incoordination
Medium incoordination
Light incoordination
Weak coordination
Medium coordination
Good coordination
High quality coordination
Learning from the empirical study, during 2000-2012, the average coordination degree of energy and environment systems is 0.6301. There were 5 years with different levels of incoordination, among which in 2010 the coordination degree of two systems is only 0.4897 belonging to the medium incoordination. The reason is that for a long time, China neglected its attention and investments on environmental protection when it focused on the development of energy economy. With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, the period of 2000-2005 became the fastest time of the energy demand growth. Building materials, chemicals and other energy intensive industries developed rapidly. Then production and sales volume of coal and oil as well as power generation volume grew rapidly too, contributing to the speedy energy expansion and continuous decline of environmental quality. After 2005, many deficiencies remained in terms of energy structure adjustment, reasonable utilization of energy, upgrading of industrial structure and environmental protection etc.. For example, the proportion of fossil energy in the total energy consumption structure of China was as high as 92.7%, among which coal percentage was 41 percent higher than that of the international average level. The outer dependency for oil gradually surpassed 55%; In 2010, China’s GDP ranked the second in the worldwide, accounting for 9.5% of the world’s GDP. But it consumed 20.3% of the total amount of global energy. Energy consumption per unit GDP in China was 2.2 times higher than that of the global average; (Qiao, 2013) [7] In the same year,China’s proportion of the secondary industry was still far higher than that of the world average level. Especially the proportion of its heavy industry was higher than the peak that the United States, Germany, Japan reached in the process of their industrializations. Three major high energy consuming industries accounted for 80% of the total energy consumption. Besides, China was in the low end of global industry chain and exported large amount of low value added primary commodities, which caused huge losses of resources and energy; The situation of environmental protection was not optimistic. Around 2010, China's discharge amount of SO2, polluted water and solid waste reached the top of the history. In short, although China’s high speed development pattern based on high energy consumption and high pollution promoted the economic growth, costs of environment were extremely enormous. This resulted in the average coordination degree of 0.5628 between energy and environment systems during 2008-2011 with the lowest degree of 0.4897 in 2010. In addition, during 2000-2012 coordination degrees between two systems fluctuated greatly. The amplitude of variation was the largest reaching about 20% during 2002-2003 and 2010-2011. The development level of each system was up and down, on and off for years. The growth rate of the development level of environment system was often much lower than that of energy system. Thus coordination degree between two systems had a high fluctuation within 13 years. From an economics view, we can find the major root causes of uncoordinated phenomenon between energy and environment are: publicity of environment and resource as well as unclear property right arrangement, widely existed external diseconomy in the use of environment and energy, imperfect market and price mechanism of
Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
environment and energy, hard calculation of effects of resource inputs with the aim to realize outside economic equilibrium, imperfect institutional arrangement under the human behaviour hypothesis. If the above weak coordinated status and numerous contradictions between two systems can not be treated well, they will definitely bring a huge challenge for the future sustainable development of the whole society. Therefore, they must be regulated and controlled actively, for example, establish an effective policy guarantee system for a coordinated development between energy and environment. To be specific, government should calculate the current coordination degree of two systems, then comprehensively combine the coordination level with the coordination tendency and target etc. to determine the corresponding objectives, polices and measures of energy development and environmental protection. Setting up environmental information disclosure system, implementing the energy green insurance and standardizing new energy market will also be conducive to enhancing the coordination. 5. Conclusion Energy system and environment system influence each other greatly. Coordination and conflict coexist between them. According to the empirical analysis of this paper, during 2000-2012, two systems of China were generally in the status of weak coordination. For many years the two systems were in the incoordination status to different extents. Based on the above research results and economic analyses, government is suggested to establish a policy guarantee system between energy and environment in order to further improve the coordinated status between these two systems. Some other helpful and innovative policies are also suggested, such as establishment of environmental information disclosure system, implementation of the energy green insurance and standardization of new energy market. Acknowledgements This paper benefits from National Statistical Research Program (LX2012Y24), National Statistical Research Program (2015LX63) and Scientific Research Fund Project of University of Jinan (14ZD01). We deeply appreciate the valuable comments of the anonymous referees. References [1] Pearson, Peter J.G.. Assessment of technological options to address climate change——a report for the prime minister’s strategy unit. Journal of the Society of Instrument & Control Engineers 1989;134:1215-26. [2] Sinton J E, Fridley D G, Logan J. China energy, environment and climate study: background issues paper.2000. Berkeley, California. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc721395/. Accessed June 1, 2016. [3] Lorna. A Greening, Steve Bernow. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decisionmaking. Energy Policy 2004;4: 721-35. [4] Vahid Mohamad Taghavee, Alireza Seifi Aloo, Jalil Khodaparast Shiraz. Energy, environment, and economy interactions in Iran with cointegrated and ECM simultaneous model. Procedia Economics and Finance 2016;36: 414-24. [5] Li Zhuoya. Examine China’s energy production and consumption with model of 3E system. Ecological Economy 2013;10: 1-2. [6] OECD. The Environmental implications of renewable. 1st ed. Paris: Publishing House of DIDOT;1998. [7] Qiao Haishu. China’s Low-Carbon Economic Development and Low-Carbon Financial Mechanism Study. 1st ed. Beijing: Economy & Management Press; 2013.
Biography Fang Zhao (1977-), Female, Business School of University of Jinan, associate professor, doctor, the reseach field is resources and environmental economics, Tel:+86-137-0531-2604, E_mail: [email protected].
525
ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
CUE2016-Applied Energy Symposium and Forum 2016: Low carbon cities & urban energy systems
Quantifying the Coordination of Energy Development and Environmental Protection: a Case Study of China Fang Zhao a, Wenqiang Zhang a, Yetang Wangb* a
Business School, Unversity of Jinan, Jinan 250002,China College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014,China
b
Abstract
Today, balancing energy development with the desire to protect the environment remains a challenge in the world, especially in developing countries such as China. To make public policy for the balancing of alternative futures, quantification of the coordination between energy development and environmental protection is required. To achieve this end, we firstly establish the index system of energy-environment comprehensive development. Then we calculate the coordination degree of energy development and environment protection by means of principal component analysis and membership function of fuzzy mathematics. The resulting coordination of energy and environment systems in China during 2000-2012 is low with an average coordination degree of 0.6301. In 5 years, energy and environment systems are in the status of incoordination to different extents. To further improve the coordinated status, based on phenomenon analyses and economic theoretical interpretation on the reasons behind, some helpful policies are suggested, including establishment of a policy guarantee system for a coordinated development, implementation of energy green insurance and standardization of new energy market etc.. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Selection and/or peer-reviewofunder responsibility of of CUE Peer-review under responsibility the scientific committee the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum, CUE2016: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems. Keywords: Energy Development; Environmental Protection˗Coordination Degree
1. Introduction The concept of coordination has been widely applied to the modern science and culture. The coordination of a compound system is the mutual dependency, mutual restraints, harmonious coexistence
*Yetang Wang. Tel.: +86-156-1010-0956. E-mail address: [email protected].
1876-6102 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum, CUE2016: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.12.088
Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
among the respective systems under the influence of self-organization in the internal system and management activities from the outside. In the development process, respective systems coexist in harmony with each other showing multiple relations of cooperation, complementation and synchronization etc., which reflects the ordered structure and status of the compound system. However, many contradictions and conflicts exist in the development process between energy system and environment system. For example, the traditional energy structure with the coal and petroleum as the dominance decides the large amount of pollutants such as waste gas and water discharged in the process of energy production and consumption, which caused the deterioration of environmental quality. Environmental factors such as environmental capacity also create apparent restrictions on the energy development. What’s more, energy departments of many countries have to pay high development costs due to the international performance. In this context, thorough and deep research on the coordinated status of the “two systems” of energy development and environmental protection has great significance for governments to deepen its understanding of “two systems”, contribute to solving contradictions of “two systems”, and draw up the scientific development planning for promoting healthy and sustainable development of the society. To determine relations between energy and environment systems, Pearson and Peter [1] mainly quantified environmental effects of energy production and transformation. Sinton et al. [2] focused on shared environmental responsibilities of the respective countries concerning the global climate change from the perspective of energy policy. Lorna and Steve [3] designed coordinated energy and environmental policies by means of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Vahid et al. [4] employed a simultaneous equations system to find out interactions between energy and environment on long and short timescales in Iran during the period 1974-2012. According to his studies, per capita CO2 emissions and energy consumption exhibit the strongest relationships and elasticities in the equations system as a whole on long timescale. Energy consumption should be reduced to decrease environmental pollution and improve the level of system coordination. In China, many studies also center on energy development and its relations with environment. Li Zhuoya [5] pointed out that China’s industrialized economy brings the growth of energy production and consumption demand, but the unreasonable energy structure and low efficiency of the energy utilization cause the imbalance between China’s environmental pollution and ecological system. The author put forward measures such as building green energy consumption pattern for the enhancement of coordination between energy and environment. Generally speaking, certain limitations still exist for the relevant research. For example, the evaluation system and the measuring methodologies with general guidance have not been formed to convert two different systems into a unified system. In addition, policy studies considering the coordinated status of energy and environment in a specific country are still limited, especially for developing countries. These limited studies did not provide adequately targeted policies according to internal contradictions between systems and the reasons behind. Energy police studies are often lack of full interaction and integration with environmental policy research. The main originality of this paper is that by building a comprehensive evaluation index system and applying membership function of fuzzy mathematics, it clarifies the current coordinated status of energy and environment systems in China. Meanwhile it conducts phenomenon analyses and economic theoretical interpretation on those incoordinations. This paper also tires to provide some creative suggestions on future government polices aiming at promoting the coordinated development of energy and environment. 2. Design of the index system The two-dimensional index system of the comprehensive development level of energy and environment is established: one dimension is the energy and environment index, measured with the index
521
522
Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
of energy comprehensive development level C and the index of environmental comprehensive development level D respectively. Both of them have 13 specific evaluation indicators. The other dimension is the index of total amount and speed, structure and ratio, quality and benefit, which are measured respectively with X as the index of total amount, Y as the index of structure, Z as the index of quality (see Table 1). According to the nature of the contribution to system development level, the original indicators in the table are divided into positive indicator (with no mark, the bigger the indicator value is, the better) and negative indicator (marked with “n”, the smaller the indicator value is, the better). Table.1 Index system of the comprehensive development level of energy & environment system Index of total amount X
Comprehensive development level of energy (C)
C1 total energy production (TCE) C2 total energy consumption (TCE) C3 urban energy industry investment (100 million yuan) C4 total oil imports (10 KT)
D1
D2 Comprehensive development level of environment (D)
D3
D4
D5
total discharge of waste water (billion tons) (n) total discharge of smoke (10 KT) (n) total discharge of industrial solid waste (billion tons) (n) total discharge of industrial SO2 (10 KT) (n) total discharge of COD (10 KT) (n)
Index of structure Y C5 coal consumption ratio (%) (n) C6 proportion of oil and natural gas production (%) C7 ratio of power consumption growth to GDP growth (%) (n) C8 proportion of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power in total energy production (%) C9 proportion of thermal power in power output % (n)
D6 proportion of total investment in environmental pollution treatment in GDP (%) D7 forest coverage rate (%) D8 proportion of natural reserve area in jurisdiction area (%) D9 comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste (%)
Index of quality Z C10 electricity consumption per unit GDP (KW.H/ten thousand yuan) (n) C11 energy consumption per unit GDP (TCE/ten thousand yuan) (n) C12 electricity consumption / population (KW.H) C13 energy consumption/population (KGCE)
D10 annual average concentration of SO2 in major cities (mg/ cubic meter) (n) D11 annual average concentration of pm in major cities (mg/ cubic meter) (n) D12 urban public green area per capita (square meter/ person) D13 average water resource amount per capita (cubic meter / person)
3. Empirical measurement First of all, we converse the value of indicator with currency unit into the constant value of the year 2000 (2000=100), then conduct the positive transformation for negative indicators with reciprocal. One principal component XC1 is extracted from total amount and speed index of energy development (C1-C4), which represents 99.193% of the information of original data. As a result, the total amount index of energy development XC=0.99193XC1 is got (see Table 2). In the same way, we can get the structure index of energy development Yc=0.56709YC1+0.26187YC2+0.14050YC3 and the quality index of energy development ZC=0.93690ZC1. If we extract principal components from environmental indicators, the total amount index of environmental development XD=0.58405XD1+0.23867XD2+0.16575XD3 can be gained. The structure index of environmental development YD=0.81833YD1+0.11819YD2 and the quality index of environmental development ZD=0.47595ZD1+0.32063ZD2+0.14160ZD3 can also be acquired.
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Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
Table.2 Principal component extraction results of energy total amount index Component
Initial Eigenvalues
Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Total
% of Variance
Cumulative %
Total
% of Variance
Cumulative %
1
3.968
99.193
99.193
3.968
99.193
99.193
2
.024
.599
99.792
3
.007
.185
99.977
4
.001
.023
100.000
At the present stage of social development, the increase of total amount, the reasonable structure and the improvement of quality are all important labels and guarantee for the healthy development of Chinese society. Therefore, if the proportion of the total amount, structure and quality of energy development are equal, the index of the comprehensive development level of energy can be calculated by the following formula. C=α1XC+α2YC+α3ZC (1) Where, α1, α2, α3 are the weighting coefficients of total amount index, structure index and quality index respectively, α1+α2+α3=1. In the same way, D=γ1XD+γ2YD+γ3ZD. The index of environment comprehensive development level D can be gained. Using the concept of membership grade in the fuzzy mathematics to describe the coordination between two systems and reflecting the membership grade change law through the membership function, we can establish the coordination degree function: U (i / j ) exp[( Fi F ' ) 2 / S 2 ] (2) Where: U(i/j) is the coordination degree of system i relative to system j, Fi is the actual value of comprehensive development level index of system i in that year; F’ is the coordination value of system i required by system j; s2 is the variance of the actual value of system i. We can evaluate the coordinated status between two systems with the coordination degree U. (3) U (i, j) min{u(i / j), u( j / i)}/ max{u(i / j), u( j / i)} Where: U(i,j) is the coordination degree of system i and system j; u(j/i) is the coordination degree of system j relative to system i. Substitute the index(C, D) of energy and environment comprehensive development level gained above to the formula (2), (3), we can get the coordination degree between the two systems( see Fig 1).
Fig.1 Coordination degree of energy and environment systems
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Fang Zhao et al. / Energy Procedia 104 (2016) 520 – 525
4. Result and discussion The value of coordination degree is generally in the interval of (0,1). When the coordination degree is 1, it means complete coordination. 0 represents complete incoordination. The classification for the coordination level is as follows: Table.3 System coordination degree classification (OECD, 1998) [6] Coordination
0≤U<0.4
0.4≤U<0.5
0.5≤U<0.6
0.6≤U<0.7
0.7≤U<0.8
0.8≤U<0.9
0.9≤U<1
Coordination evaluation
Seriously incoordination
Medium incoordination
Light incoordination
Weak coordination
Medium coordination
Good coordination
High quality coordination
Learning from the empirical study, during 2000-2012, the average coordination degree of energy and environment systems is 0.6301. There were 5 years with different levels of incoordination, among which in 2010 the coordination degree of two systems is only 0.4897 belonging to the medium incoordination. The reason is that for a long time, China neglected its attention and investments on environmental protection when it focused on the development of energy economy. With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, the period of 2000-2005 became the fastest time of the energy demand growth. Building materials, chemicals and other energy intensive industries developed rapidly. Then production and sales volume of coal and oil as well as power generation volume grew rapidly too, contributing to the speedy energy expansion and continuous decline of environmental quality. After 2005, many deficiencies remained in terms of energy structure adjustment, reasonable utilization of energy, upgrading of industrial structure and environmental protection etc.. For example, the proportion of fossil energy in the total energy consumption structure of China was as high as 92.7%, among which coal percentage was 41 percent higher than that of the international average level. The outer dependency for oil gradually surpassed 55%; In 2010, China’s GDP ranked the second in the worldwide, accounting for 9.5% of the world’s GDP. But it consumed 20.3% of the total amount of global energy. Energy consumption per unit GDP in China was 2.2 times higher than that of the global average; (Qiao, 2013) [7] In the same year,China’s proportion of the secondary industry was still far higher than that of the world average level. Especially the proportion of its heavy industry was higher than the peak that the United States, Germany, Japan reached in the process of their industrializations. Three major high energy consuming industries accounted for 80% of the total energy consumption. Besides, China was in the low end of global industry chain and exported large amount of low value added primary commodities, which caused huge losses of resources and energy; The situation of environmental protection was not optimistic. Around 2010, China's discharge amount of SO2, polluted water and solid waste reached the top of the history. In short, although China’s high speed development pattern based on high energy consumption and high pollution promoted the economic growth, costs of environment were extremely enormous. This resulted in the average coordination degree of 0.5628 between energy and environment systems during 2008-2011 with the lowest degree of 0.4897 in 2010. In addition, during 2000-2012 coordination degrees between two systems fluctuated greatly. The amplitude of variation was the largest reaching about 20% during 2002-2003 and 2010-2011. The development level of each system was up and down, on and off for years. The growth rate of the development level of environment system was often much lower than that of energy system. Thus coordination degree between two systems had a high fluctuation within 13 years. From an economics view, we can find the major root causes of uncoordinated phenomenon between energy and environment are: publicity of environment and resource as well as unclear property right arrangement, widely existed external diseconomy in the use of environment and energy, imperfect market and price mechanism of
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environment and energy, hard calculation of effects of resource inputs with the aim to realize outside economic equilibrium, imperfect institutional arrangement under the human behaviour hypothesis. If the above weak coordinated status and numerous contradictions between two systems can not be treated well, they will definitely bring a huge challenge for the future sustainable development of the whole society. Therefore, they must be regulated and controlled actively, for example, establish an effective policy guarantee system for a coordinated development between energy and environment. To be specific, government should calculate the current coordination degree of two systems, then comprehensively combine the coordination level with the coordination tendency and target etc. to determine the corresponding objectives, polices and measures of energy development and environmental protection. Setting up environmental information disclosure system, implementing the energy green insurance and standardizing new energy market will also be conducive to enhancing the coordination. 5. Conclusion Energy system and environment system influence each other greatly. Coordination and conflict coexist between them. According to the empirical analysis of this paper, during 2000-2012, two systems of China were generally in the status of weak coordination. For many years the two systems were in the incoordination status to different extents. Based on the above research results and economic analyses, government is suggested to establish a policy guarantee system between energy and environment in order to further improve the coordinated status between these two systems. Some other helpful and innovative policies are also suggested, such as establishment of environmental information disclosure system, implementation of the energy green insurance and standardization of new energy market. Acknowledgements This paper benefits from National Statistical Research Program (LX2012Y24), National Statistical Research Program (2015LX63) and Scientific Research Fund Project of University of Jinan (14ZD01). We deeply appreciate the valuable comments of the anonymous referees. References [1] Pearson, Peter J.G.. Assessment of technological options to address climate change——a report for the prime minister’s strategy unit. Journal of the Society of Instrument & Control Engineers 1989;134:1215-26. [2] Sinton J E, Fridley D G, Logan J. China energy, environment and climate study: background issues paper.2000. Berkeley, California. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc721395/. Accessed June 1, 2016. [3] Lorna. A Greening, Steve Bernow. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decisionmaking. Energy Policy 2004;4: 721-35. [4] Vahid Mohamad Taghavee, Alireza Seifi Aloo, Jalil Khodaparast Shiraz. Energy, environment, and economy interactions in Iran with cointegrated and ECM simultaneous model. Procedia Economics and Finance 2016;36: 414-24. [5] Li Zhuoya. Examine China’s energy production and consumption with model of 3E system. Ecological Economy 2013;10: 1-2. [6] OECD. The Environmental implications of renewable. 1st ed. Paris: Publishing House of DIDOT;1998. [7] Qiao Haishu. China’s Low-Carbon Economic Development and Low-Carbon Financial Mechanism Study. 1st ed. Beijing: Economy & Management Press; 2013.
Biography Fang Zhao (1977-), Female, Business School of University of Jinan, associate professor, doctor, the reseach field is resources and environmental economics, Tel:+86-137-0531-2604, E_mail: [email protected].
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