Readings books and rankings of macromonetary articles, authors and journals

JAMES M. ROCK Uniuersity

of

Utah

Readings Boo&s and Rankings of Macromonetary Articles, Authors and Journals* Articles republished rank macromonetary inate analysis and from their articles

in commercial readings books prove to be a feasible way to articles, authors, and journals. Rankings are tested by discrimby comparison to alternate rankings. Authors’ fame is derived and from the journals in which their articles are published.

1. Introduction Economists are inveterate judges of their own status. We rate our departments [Cartter (RX%), Dean (1976), and Siegfried and Zak (1979)], our journals [Bush, Hamelman, and Staaf (1974) and Kagann and Leeson (1978)], and our ability to have articles accepted for publication [Hanson and Weisbrod (19791 and cited by others [Love11 (1973) and Quandt (1976)]. Ranking articles, however, is more difficult because of the rapid growth and wide variety published, and, especially, because they are not directly valued in the market place [Love11 (1973), pp. 29-331. The purpose of this article is to determine if any aggregation of selected articles will yield a defensible ranking of current macromonetary (macroeconomics, money and banking, and monetary economics) articles. In the past the American Economic Association (AEA) has provided an implicit ranking of articles in most economic areas through its Series of Republished Articles on Economics. Presently, the only attempts being made to assess the intrinsic value of individual articles are through the media of selected bibliographies [e.g., Rock (1977)] and books of selected republished readings. Singular bibliographies or readings books are deficient as a *I wish to thank all the editors and publishers and answered my many questions. A special Thomas M. Havrilesky, D. James Croft, Lance ymous referees. Journal Copyright

of

Macroecotwmics, Winter Q 1982

by Wayne

State

who thanks Girton,

1982, Vol. 4, No. University Press.

filled goes Don

1, pp.

out my questionnaires to Kent L. Granzin, Roper, and the anon-

71-87

71

James M. Rock method of ranking articles, however. A bibliography contains too many selections and readings books are editor-biased selections. Consequently, the selected bibliography used here to rank macromonetary articles, authors, and journals is the articles republished in twenty commercial readings books published since 1988. That volume and concentration of published readings books is unlikely to reoccur because of the declining relative cost of photocopying. A short history of economic readings books is given in Section 2 to demonstrate that editors of readings books do select (subjectively) the “best” articles either because that. is their commission (AEA Series editors) or because of the market’s coercion (editors of commercial readings books); keeping in mind, of course, that any selection is a result of a value judgement. In Section 3 discriminant analysis and telephone and mail surveys are used to determine which characteristics of macromonetary articles separate the republishable from the nonrepublishable ones. In the fourth section my ranking of the most-republished macromonetary economists is compared to three other well-known rankings of economists. The comparisons are another test of the legitimacy of using commercial macromonetary readings books’ selections as a selected bibliography from which articles, authors, and journals are ranked.

2. Readings

Books:

Past and Present

In days gone by, it was possible for a moderately energetic economist to keep abreast of the economic literature. By the late 193Os, however, the American Economic Association was asked by members to rank the economic literature by quality and subject in some convenient way. The AEA’s Series of Republished Articles on Economics “grew out of informal conversations among members of the American Economic Association regarding the desirability of having in convenient form articles of permanent interest which tend to lose their full usefulness by being widely scattered through old issues of the various journals” [Hoover and Dean (1942), P.T. Homan’s “Preface,” p. v.]. The primary purpose of the Series, as noted in the Preface of the individual volumes, was to select articles of permanent interest and pedagogical usefulness. In addition it was hoped that the Series would “help to lessen the intellectual provincialism of specialists” and would be of “lasting benefit, if not delight” to the intelligent layman. If an article was selected by the Association’s 72

Readings Books and Rankings editorial committee to appear in a readings book, it denoted that article as the “best” in its area of economics. However, the editorial committees attempted to restrict their choices to unrepublished articles. The Association commenced publishing books of readings as a service to its members. It was not a very profitable endeavor.’ When commercial publishers began to publish such books, their main objective was profit not service. Nonetheless, the AEA’s Committee on Publications recommended that the free market be allowed to work unhindered and, consequently, the Association withdrew completely from publishing readings books by 1970. The Association, however, never chose to publish a readings book in the specific area of macroeconomics or money and banking, only in monetary theory [Lutz and Mints (1951)] and that over thirty years ago.2 This lack of competition by the Association, combined with a rapidly growing college student population-especially economics and business majors+ncouraged commercial book publishers in the mid-1960s to enter the macromonetary readings book market. Macroeconomics and money and banking textbooks had begun to be published in increasing profusion several years earlier than readings books. Some textbook publishers began to offer a package of workbook and/or readings book along with the textbook to increase their market share and profits by differentiating and full-line forcing their product. Besides the demand for macromonetary readings books in college courses, commercial publishers believed there was a demand independent of textbook demand; the same combined audience that the American Economic Association had hoped to reach through its Series. At first, commercial book publishers thought it prudent (mimicking the AEA) to select an editor whose reputation would “certify” that the articles republished were the best possible selections. By 1968 publishers were no longer overly concerned about the value of any editor’s imprimatur. The market for college books was a sellers’ market and publishers were hiring their own experts from academia to serve as consultants in the determination of which manuscripts should be published. This allowed relatively unknown ‘Personal correspondence from Roger L. Ross, Assistant Vice President and Executive Editor, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., June 12, 1978. *In addition, there were two books published on business cycles [Haberler (1944) and Gordon and Klein (1965)] which did republish some macromonetary artitles 73

James M. Rock editors a chance to have their readings book outlines accepted for publication. Editors of readings books, whether they are selecting articles for a commercial readings book or the AEA’s sponsored series, are dedicated at least in part to choosing articles of permanent interest and pedagogic usefulness-economists are inveterate rankers and may not be averse to possible royalties. Contrariwise, commercial publishers and the AEA do not seem to have the same objective: profit versus convenience. In a fuller sense, however, their objectives are compatible, only the order of priorities is reversed. Readings books are not published unless they are expected to be profitable (if only as a prestige item as was the AEA’s Series) and they will not be bought unless they provide a service of convenience. The commercial readings books are surrogates for a macromonetary AEA readings book, albeit with considerably more articles.

3. Characteristics

of a Republished

Article

There are 887 articles-including duplications-republished in the 20 macromonetary readings books classified in Table 1.3 Of the 887 republished articles, 568 (64 percent) are unduplicated, but 157 (less than 18 percent) are by authors who had only one article republished. In addition 39 economists, whose articles are republished five or more times, authored or co-authored 364 (41 percent) of all the republished articles and 225 (40 percent) of the unduplicated articles.4 The selection of which articles to republish involves an extensive sifting and winnowing process. In 1967 alone, the Zndex of Economic Articles listed approximately 650 unreplicated articles under subject headings similar to those in Table 2. Because so many macromonetary articles are published each year, an editor needs a facile selection process. Observation of what others have sArticles are defined as professional writings in books, professional journals, or government documents. Writings not previously published are excluded. Some of the articles included were shortened by editors and, in Mittra (1971), abstracted. The twenty readings books are assumed to constitute a census not a sample of the readings books published from 1968 to 1976. ‘This list, although not reproduced here, is available from the author. There are four sets of coauthors who are among those economists with five or more republished articles (Andersen and Jordan, Brunner and Meltzer, Gurley and Shaw, and Samuelson and Solow). The 16 double-counted, coauthored articles are excluded from the last computation. 74

Readings Books and Rankings TABLE

1.

Readings Books Published:

Macromonetaw

1968-76 Number

of

5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.

& Banking

Undergrad Grad Undergrad

43 22 34

& Banking

Undergrad

37

M&B/Monetary

G/U

40

415 607 424

Macro Macro Macro

Undergrad Undergrad Grad

37 61 44

1 1 1643 2 1 1

514 571 490 448 495

Macro Macro Money Macro Money Macro

Undergrad Undergrad Undergrad Grad Undergrad Grad

42 74 101 31 57 32

3 1 2

556 524 689

M&B/Macro Macro Monetary

G/U Grad Grad

46 52 24

1

536

Macro

Grad

25

1

734

Money

& Banking

Undergrad

52

1

488

Money

& Banking

Undergrad

33

Macromonetary Subarea

Edition

Pages

Carson (1972) Clower (1970) Entine (1968) Gibson & Kaufman (1971) Havrilesky & Boorman (1976) Johnson & Kamerschen (1970) Keiser (1970) Lindauer (1968) Mitchell, et al. (1974) Mittra (1971) Mittra (1970) Mueller (1971) Prager (1971) Shapiro (1970) Smith & Teigen (1974) Surrey (1976) Thorn (1976) Williams & Huffnagle (1969) Williams & Wondenberg (1970) Wolf & Doenges

2 1 1

507 360 510

Money Monetary Money

& Banking

1

524

Money

1

613

1 1 1

Wf33)

Editor 1. 2. 3. 4.

Academic Level

Republished Articles

& Banking & Banking

done is perhaps the best and most pliant approach. For example, all four of the most republished articles in Table 3 [Domar (1947), Duesenberry (1948), Hicks (1937) and Patinkin (1Q48)15 are republished in the same four readings books [Lindauer (19689, Mueller (1971), Shapiro (1970), and Williams and Huffhagle (lQ69)]. In addition Lindauer and Mueller have five other articles in common. Editors of commercial readings books chose to republish only

the

‘The most republished articles readings books in which they

are referenced are republished.

in Table

3 (not

in References)

by

75

James M. Rock TABLE

2.

Classification

of Republished

Subject Heading

Articles Number 84 65 56

Percent

Federal Reserve System Fiscal Policy and Theory Fiscal versus Monetary Policy Financial Intermediaries Incomes Policy and Theory Macroeconomic Theory Monetary Policy and Theory Miscellaneous

72 67 188 326 29

9.5 7.3 6.3 8.1 7.6 21.2 36.7 3.3

Grand Total

887

100.0

eight articles also chosen by the AEA Series editors. Series books are not a good source of inspiration due to the Association’s aforementioned policy on republication and its failure to sanction a Series book specifically on macroeconomics or money and banking or a more recent book on monetary theory. However, four of the jointly chosen articles are among the most republished articles: Hicks (1937), Patinkin (1948), Samuelson (1939), and Schlesinger (1960). The paucity of coincident selections does emphasize the temporal nature of most macromonetary writings. As confirmation, only two editors chose a selection by John Maynard Keynes. Of the 35 articles that are republished three or more times in Table 3, ten were not published in a periodical and, therefore, are excluded from the two-group discriminant analysis, because of the difficulty of finding a nonbiased corresponding entrant for the nonrepublished group. Five of the ten excluded articles are concentrated in two books: three from Banking and Monetary Studies [Polakoff (1963), Ritter (1963) and Tobin (1963)] and two from Controlling Monetary Aggregates, no. 1 [Holmes (1969) and Smith (1969)]. Th e o th er f ive articles not appearing in a periodical are by Friedman (1963) and (1957), Duesenberry (1948), Jorgensen (1967), and Wallich (1966). The 887 articles in the twenty readings books have now been reduced to twenty-five articles that are republished, on average, slightly over four times apiece. Consequently, the characteristics of these twenty-five articles should exemplify why they are republished and most other articles are not. To more fully understand the article-selection process, ques76

Readings Books and Rankings

TABLE 3.

Article

Republished

Al-t&i? Baumol

(1952)

Transactions Demand for Money Debt Management Monetarists vs. New View Special Drawing Rights Federal Keynesian Relative Permanent Flexible Postwar Natural

Patinkin (1948) Polakoff (1963) Ritter (1963) Samuelson (1939) Samuelson 4 Solow NW Schlesinger (1960) Smith (1956) Smith (1963) Smith (1865) Smith (1969) Spenser (1969) Tobin (1955) Tobin (1958) Tobin (1963) WaBich (1966) Witte (1963) readings

Readings Books in which Republished *

Subject

Beard (1964) Brunner (1968) Davis (1968) DeLeeuw C Gramlich (1969) Domar (1947) Duesenberry (1948) Friedman (1957) Friedman (1963) Friedman (1964) Friedman (1968) Gurley t Shaw ww Hicks (1937) Holmes (1969) Jordan (1969) Jorgenson (1967) Laird (1963) MundeIl (1962) Mundell (1964)

‘The

Three or More Times

books

14,

16,

17

7, 8, 20 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 19

Reserve-MIT Model Growth Model Income Hypothesis Income Hypothesis Exchange Rates Monetary Trends Rate Hypothesis

1, 8, 8, 7, 9, 3, 4,

4, 12, 12, 10, 19, 8, 6,

5 14, 14, 18 20 20 10,

Inside-Outside Money IS-LM Model Money Supply Growth Money Stock Investment Behavior Debt Management Internal-External Balance Consistency of Keynesian Models Real Balance Effect FRS Discount Policy Money in Keynesian Model Multiplier-Accelerator

8, 8, 1, 1, 10, 3, 8, 6,

15, 12, 4, 4, 16, 7, 11, 10,

17, 14, 5 5 18 15, 15, 14

Anti-Inflation Policy Monetary Policy Keynesian Graphics FRS Instruments FRS Pohcy Tools Neo-Keynesian Monetary Policy Incomes Policy Dynamic Aggregative Model Liquidity Preference Money Creation Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy Microfoundations of Investment

8, 8, 5, 3, 3, 1, 6, 10, 12, 3, 3, 6,

are

listed

alphabetically

11

18, 20 18

11,

14,

19, 20 17, 18

19, 20 16, 19

8, 10, 12, 14, 3, 11, 13 3, 7, 8, 11, 8, 12, 18

by number

10, 11, 6, 7, 10, 4, 9, 17, 16, 15, 10, 16,

12, 20 12, 8, 15, 5 10, 18 17, 16, 11 18

15

18 12,

13,

14

20 15, 20 15, 19 20

in Table

13,

19

18 19

1.

77

James M. Rock tionnaires were sent to both. the editors and the publishers of the twenty readings books; all replied. Telephone and personal interviews of publishers’ economics editors emphasized the direct influence readings book editors and publishers have on the articles republished, but also underlined the influence of the reputation, albeit indirect, of the author and of the initial publisher. To test the hypothesis that republished articles are different than nonrepublished articles, the most republished journal articles (Group 0) are compared to twenty-five other articles (Group 1). The Group 1 articles are, hypothetically, from the same journal, same placement in the journal, but one year earlier than the corresponding Group 0 articles. If that potential Group 1 article was not a macromonetary article, all of the intervening articles (excluding Comments, Replies, etc.) between it and the Group 0 article were sequentially reviewed, proceeding forward toward the republished article, until a macromonetary article was found. From a list of characteristics thought to be significant indicators of republishability, a subset of 11 characteristics that could be distinguished between the two groups is statistically tested by the computer program BMD Stepwise Discriminant Analysis. Discriminant analysis extends analysis of variance to provide a test of the equality of a pair of multivariate rather than univariate means.6 In general, those explanatory variables which best differentiate between the two groups claim the most significant coefficients in the discriminant function, subject to the usual cautions with regard to multicollinearity. The differentiating ability of the discriminant function is assessed by means of a classification matrix. The characteristics of each article are entered into the discriminant function and a score for the article is computed. This score is compared with the mean discriminant score (centroid) of the republished group and of the nonrepublished group. Each article is then predicted to be a member of the group whose centroid is closest to its discriminant score. Each of the 11 characteristics thought to be of importance in producing a macromonetary readings book is described below: 1. Reputation of Authors. The measure used is the number of times an author’s articles are republished; the only rating scheme available. Editors realize that acceptance of their readings book is

the

78

6Discriminant dependent

analysis may be viewed as a form of regression variable is categorical rather than continuous.

analysis,

when

Readings Books and Rankings initially based on recognition of the authors’ names. The circularity introduced by this measure of fame does not change the final results, for any measure of fame will be highly correlated with the extent to which an author’s articles are republished. For articles that are coauthored, the measure is divided by the number of authors. Reputation of Authors exhibited the largest difference between means and, consequently, was entered first into the stepwise analysis. 2. Seminal-Classic Articles and 3. Survey Articles. All of the articles are classified by the percentage of their paragraphs that are deemed to be: a) a seminal idea or a classic interpretation of a theoretic construct; b) an in-depth survey; or c) neither one of the first two classifications. Ten republished articles [Baumol (1952), Domar (1947), Gurley and Shaw (1956), Friedman (1968), Hicks (1937), Mundell (1962), Patinkin (1948), Samuelson (1939), Tobin (1955), and Tobin (1958)] are in category a) and ten republished articles [Beard (1964), B runner (1968), Friedman (1964), Laird (1963), Samuelson and Solow (1960), Schlesinger (1960), Smith (1956), Smith (1963), Spencer (1969), and Witte (1963)] are in category b). All of the Group 1 articles are classified in category c). 4. Ratings of Colleges where Authors Are Teaching (School Affiliation), and 5. Ratings of Colleges where Authors Got Terminal Degrees (Value of Degree). The mutual rating schedule used here is founded on Cartter (1966), because of its general acceptance and because a majority of the most republished articles originally were published in the 1960s. Cartter’s indexes of quality of graduate faculty and effectiveness of graduate program are summed to formulate the rating schedule. Economics departments and institutions unranked by Cartter were subjectively rated from best available knowledge. 6. Number of Pages with Equations per Article, 7. Complexity of Articles, 8. Number of Figures per Article, and 9. Number of Tables per Article. All four of these characteristics are used both as an indicator of the articles’ difficulty and, more importantly, of the cost of typesetting. Ten articles are judged to be understandable only to graduate students, three in Group 0 and seven in Group 1. 10. Subject Headings of Republished Articles. The percent of the 887 republished articles that are under each heading in Table 2 is used as an index of republishability. 11. Pages per Article. An index is constructed of the gross

79

James M. Rock number of pages in the article. No attempt is made to compute a “standard” page because of the impossibility of converting tables, figures, and equations into lines of type. The F-Ratios in Table 4 show that the first five variables are significantly different between the two groups of articles on a univariate basis. All five are also indicative of the author’s fame. However, the discriminant coefficients of seminal articles and survey articles are the only ones to show significant discriminatory power on a multivariate basis. (The size of the discriminant coefficients is a measure of the marginal predictive power of each variable over and above that supplied by all other variables in the discriminant function.) In Table 5 the percentage of correctly classified articles is called the “hit rate”; those incorrectly classified are “misses. ” The higher the percentage of hits, the greater is the confidence placed in the discriminate function. The five, of 50, articles misclassified are Davis (EM%), DeLeeuw and Gramlich (1969), Jordan (1969), Mundell (1964), and Smith (1965). Two non-quantifiable inputs focus on the cost of publishing TABLE

4.

Means, Uniuariate Coefficients

F-Ratios,

and Discriminant

Means Variables Reputation of Author Seminal Articles Survey Articles School Affiliation Value of Degree Pages with Equations Article’s Complexity Number of Tables Number of Figures Subject Headings Pages per Article

Republished

Nonrepublished

F-Ratios”

14.76 0.40 0.40 41.60 53.04 2.68 0.88 0.92 2.16 95.56 14.48

1.96 0.00 0.00 29.84 37.48 3.24 0.72 1.84 1.60 88.64 14.12

24.93 16.09 16.09 4.13 6.44 0.19 2.00 2.20 0.90 0.12 0.05

Discriminant Coefficients 0.04 0.89 0.79 -0.07 0.02 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.01

‘The first three variables are significant beyond the ,003 level and the next variables are significant at the .05 level. The centroids for the republished and +.89, respectively; the overall F-statistic nonrepublished groups are -.89 34.75, which is significant beyond the .003 level. 80

two and is

Readings Books and Rankings TABLE

5.

Clussifwation

of Articles:

Stevs First Classified Classified Second Classified Classified Third” Classified Classified *There

Number

and (Percentage)

Actual Republished

Actual Nonrepublished

Republished Nonrepublished

14 (56) 11 (44)

2 23

Republished Nonrepublished

16 (64 Q (36)

0 (0) 25 (100)

Republished Nonrepublished

20 (80) 5 (20)

0 (0) 25 (100)

is no change

in the

hit

rate

after

the

third

(8) (92)

step.

readings books and on the initial journal publishers of the readings: 12. Financial Considerations. The costs of publishing a readings book, in addition to the usual book publishing costs, are conditional on the amount paid for permission fees to republish the articles. Survey data indicate that editors paid permission fees for 46 percent of their choices. In fact 16 of the 35 most republished articles are free to republish. U.S. government publications, including Federal Reserve System publications, are fast becoming the most widely republished articles for that very reason. The average cost per book is approximately $2,100, while the most “lavish” editor-publisher paid $3,000 and the least $1,000.’ Usually a large share, if not the total burden, of the permission fees falls on the editor. Consequently, an editor’s choices are circumscribed, in part, by the size of permission fees. But the choices at the margin are usually not the seminal-survey articles. The sales figures for 18 of the 20 readings books [all except Smith and Teigen (1974) and Surrey (1976)] were secured. Slightly over 9,000 copies are sold on the average over the in-print life of these 18 readings books. Given that the usual minimum first printing for softback books is 7,500 (5,000 for hardbacks), a number of the readings books did not “sell out”-complimentary copies plus sales-their first printing. In fact some books are still in inventory ‘A mailed survey of journal publishers, commercial and university dicated that the average permission fee per page is now slightly over $10 in 1968.

presses, in$10. It was

81

James M. Rock although complimentary copies may run from 10 percent to over 20 percent of the first printing. On the whole, sales are less than the publishers expected. There are three factors that caused publishers to overestimate the market demand: 1) the short half-life of a macromonetary readings book. A successful readings book [e.g., Smith and Teigen (1974)] is revised every four to five years; 2) the rapidly diminishing relative cost of photocopying; and 3) the flood of competitive books concomitant with a reduction in the number of students attending coliege. To be a successful venture, publishers hope to recover all the costs of the first printing of a readings book in the first year. Although there is a range among publishers, on the average, selling about 4,500 copies the first year is the breakeven point. Currently a publisher will consider republishing a readings book if sales of 5,500 copies the first year are attained with a drop off of 500 copies per year so that by the fourth year, and usually last year of serious republishing considerations, that edition will have sold close to 20,000 copies. With books that have rapid decay rates, as one publisher’s economics editor put it, “It is the second editions that keep the publishers’ doors open. ” 13. Quality of Journals. Just as certain articles and certain authors are republished more than others, the same is true about where republished articles are initially published. Thirteen journals published the 25 most republished journal articles in macromonetary economics. American Economic Review was the original publisher of five of these articles. Journal of Political Economy, National Banking Review, and FRB of St. Louis Review all published three and the journal of Finance published two. The National Banking Review did not and the St. Louis Review does not charge permission fees. American Economic Reuiew, Journal of Finance, and Journal of Political Economy, on the other hand, are all permission-fee-charging, major journals in this field of economics. There was only one article republished (out of the 887), interestingly enough, from four newer journals publishing macromonetary articles: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and Journal of Monetary Theory. The Journal of Macroeconomics commenced publication too recently to be represented. The two non-tested characteristics, financial consideration and quality of journals, furnish these additional insights: 1) that fewer reading books are published and republished but the number of 82

Readings Books and Rankings seminal-survey articles selected is not greatly affected and 2) that most republished articles are either from prestige journals or they are free to republish. Both confirm that editors do republish some articles because they are cheaper to republish; however, the most republished articles are by and large written by noted economists at prestige schools with degrees from prestige schools.

4. Ranking

Macromonetary

Economists

A ranking of the most republished macromonetary economists is given by Table 6. Richard Quandt [(1976), p. 7551 has speculated that there may be a difference in the fame of “having one article cited 100 times and having written 100 articles, each cited only once. ” Here the number of individual articles republished is considered to be a better indicator of an author’s rank than the number of times one’s articles are republished. There is, however, little difference in the rankings. Five of the six most republished macromonetary economists, excluding Smith, are listed in both of the well-known rankings of the best economists, with regard to quality (number of citations) [Love11 (1973) and Quandt (1976)]. Using data from 1965, Love11 ordered the 12 “star’‘-most frequently cited in four major jourTABLE

6.

Authors

Authors Friedman, Milton Tobin, James Smith, Warren L.” Johnson, Harry G.b Samuelson, P.A. b Solow, Robert M. b

of Articles

Most Often Republished

Number of Zndividual Articles Republished Rank Number 25 18 16 (14) 12 10 10

1 2 3 4 5 5

Number of Times Articles Are Republished Number 41 ii (23) 16 18 15

Rank 1 3 (2) 2 (3) 5 4 6

*The numbers in parentheses omit those of his articles Smith republished in his readings book. This causes Smith to be ranked third under both categories. bThe coauthored article by Samuelson and Solow (1960), republished four times, is added in toto to both names. No other economist had more than seven individual articles republished. own

James M. Rock m&-economists. The first nine places are filled by M. Friedman, II. Solow, K. Arrow, J.R. Hicks, P.A. Samuelson, T.C. Koopmans, H. Theil, H.G. Johnson, and J. Tobin. In addition, if Table 6 is extended, Sir John Hicks would be tied for ninth place with four others in the first category and tied for seventh place with eight others in the second category. The correlation between Quandt’s 1970 list of the 26 most cited economists (in eight major journals) and my list of the most republished macromonetary economists is consistent with Lovell’s survey. Besides the five most republished macromonetary economists which are included in the first nine places in Quandt’s ranking, two of the other four economists among Quandt’s first nine are also included among the 39 most republished (five or more times) macromonetary economists: D.W. Jorgenson and F. Modi4’ iani. Switching from quality to quantity, Hanson and Weisbrod’s line-up of “current batting champions” (most total articles published, by biennium) for 1964-65 and 1966-67 includes eight economists who are republished in macromonetary readings books five or more times (W. J. Baumol, H.G. Johnson, D.W. Jorgenson, A.H. Meltzer, F. Modigliani, R.A. Mundell, and P.A. Samuelson). Given that my quality ranking is for macromonetary economists and Hanson and Weisbrod’s quantity ranking is for all economists, the coincidence is notable. The only macromonetary economists ranked by Lovell, Quandt, Hanson and Weisbrod, and me are P.A. Samuelson and the late H.G. Johnson. Besides Johnson and Samuelson, six macromonetary economists are included in three out of four of the rankings: W.J. Baumol, M. Friedman, D.W. Jorgenson, F. Modigliani, R.M. Solow and J. Tobin. Friedman, Solow, and Tobin are on all three of the quality lists. Richard Quandt [(1976), p. 7521 has surmised that the number of times economists make his most frequently cited authors list may be a way of determining potential Nobel Laureates. Baumol and Solow made Quandt’s list for the last two successive turns of the decade; the other three top candidates (Jorgenson, Modigliani, and Tobin, the new Laureate) are only on the 1970 list.

5. Conclusions The use of republished articles as a selected bibliography to rank articles, authors, and journals does pass the statistical test for

84

Readings Books and Rankings significance of variance and the correspondence test to other rankings. The best macromonetary articles in Table 3 can be further gleaned by selecting only those articles republished five or more times [Domar (1947), Friedman (KM%), Gurley and Shaw (1956), Hicks (1937), Laird (1963), Mundell (1962), Patinkin (1948), Ritter (X%3), Smith (1956) and (1963), and Spencer (1969)]; all are classified as seminal-classic or survey articles, except Ritter (1963) which was not published in a periodical. Table 6 shows that M. Friedman is the most republished as well as the most cited and controversial macromonetary economist of the 1950s and 1960s. And, American Economic Review is the leader among the journals that published the articles listed in Table 3. However, the U.S. Government published the largest percentage of the most republished articles and of the 887 republished articles. All of the rankings are somewhat dated, however, because of the time lag between publication and republication and because three-fourths of the twenty readings books were published before 1973. Consequently, the simplest way to bring these rankings upto-date, given that the statistical analysis shows the fame of the author is of most importance, is to survey well-known economists as to their choices. Making sure, of course, that they do not neglect their own articles. Receiued:

Final

September,

uersion

receiued:

1980 April,

1981

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