- Email: [email protected]
A Computer Assisted Long Range Comprehensive Planning System for a Regional Project Impact Assessment in Land Use Planning
A COMPUTER ASSISTED LONG RANGE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING SYSTEM FOR A REGIONAL PROJECT IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN LAND USE PLANNING
T. Shiina , President , IBM Japan. S . Ogasawara *, Director of Planning Dept . Hyogo Prefecture T. Matsuzaki*,* Sr . Researcher Tokyo Scientific Center , IBM Japan *** Y. Sawaragi , Professor , Kyoto University ABSTRACT A systems approach has been made to assist planners in drawing a regional plan along with a comprehensive plan through the use of HYOGO DYNAMICS - a computer assisted planning system . Regional development projects are assessed from the point of view of economical , social and environmental impact . A multi - level model structure is employed both for industrializ ed regions along the Seto Inland Sea and for the rest of Hyogo Prefecture . Simulation results on computers have been successfully submitted to symposia attended by residents of the regions in order to obtain a consensus. A regional manage ment system concept is proposed. INTRODUCTION Japan has attained today the highest degree of affluence and prosperity in its history as a result of the great strides made by its economy in recent years . Its National Gross Product ranks second in the Free World after the United States . This fast growth of the economy , however , has created various social strains . For instance , environmental pollution has become a nation - wide problem , jeopardizing the living environment and the health of the people. (1) , (23) Hyogo Prefecture has set its sights on the realization by 1985 of a " New Com prehensive Plan " that would result in the creation of a welfare state. This plan , will replace and complement an earlier plan, which , upon examination in the light of present conditions , proved to lack a sufficiently concrete and systematic attitude towards human life , social welfare and cultural re quirements . (2),(3) , (4) , (32) I FAC S ix t h Tri enn ia l Wo rl d Con gress, Bo s to n /C ambri d g e , Aug . 1975 .
The Comprehensive Plan consists of a basic plan and a regional development plan. In drawing up the basic plan , consideration had to be given to the long - term possibilities and limitations of important societal elements. In the regional development plan , region al management concepts require the es tablishment of multi - dimensional assess ment criteria so as to enable the respon sible planners to make sensible decisions under uncertain conditions. The factors to be evaluated are not always quantita tive . Therefore , it is essential that tested value systems of experienced plan ners be incorporated into the management support systems , together with the partici pation of citizens and that of researchers in system development . (33)
*
Hy o g o Dy nam i c sTeam , Hy o g o Pref . (H . Miyazaki et al . )
** Pr oj ec t L ea de r, Env ir onment a l Co n t r ol T ea m. ( M. Oh k ohch i, M. Udo ) *** Env ir o nmental P o ll ut i on Cont r ol Pr oject , Ministry o f Ed uca t i o n . ( J . Ko n do e t al. )
603
IJ THE PROBLEM AND REQUIREMENT STATEMENT The objective of the new comprehensive plan , stated in general terms , is to frame an effective political strategy for a wide range of problem areas with an inter - related complex structure , tak ing into account the social and economic developments in Hyogo prefecture up to the 21st century . This should be follow ed by the full examination of its long term trend in time as well as in regional and policy space . (3) , (32) , (33) The Necessity of Long - Term Comprehensive Information for Trade - Offs The way to problem solution must be prob ed not only by an individual and sepa rate approach but by a comprehensive and systematic approach .
Widening Discrepancies between Planning and Management The wide gap between planning and manage ment is evidence that planning has not been responsive to the needs of the deci sion makers . A unique feature of a sys tems approach is its potential for bridg ing this gap . (26) 2J THE OBJECTIVE OF SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT Regi o n a l development projects require the establishment of a management system in order to adjust the series of process es of development from the framing stage to its implementation . Urban and regional management in our coun try is a key area in recent studies of local government as well as of national government because of the seriousness of the complexity of the problems .
Furthermore , it is necessary to assess the effectiveness of political decision for a reasonably long period since many of such decisions which once appeared appropriate from the short - term view have proved to cause new contradictions after some decades . Trade - offs are to be made properly by feeding and forward ing appropriate information .
These functions aim to promote popular understanding , when residents join in planning activities , of trade - off rela tionships in dealing with environment , traffic problems and the quality of life so as to eliminate paroch i alism .
Primarily , the absence of a long - term outlook in urban and regional decision making has led to conflicts between in dividual agencies and to the ineffective ness of many programs .
For the time being the emphasis will be put on the issuing of warning information. Development activities in this field will continue until policy decisions for the Comprehensive Plan are completed .
Urban and Regional Management for the Solution of Complex Regional Problems
Trade - offs and compromises are inevitable . We can no longer afford to manage accord ing to a set of utopian objectives , mere ly dependent on " crisis management ". (20) , (25) , ( 26)
It is widely and generally accepted that a regional development project should be an instrument to improve the welfare of the people and the quality of life which in itself is diversified and has multi ple obj e ctives . However , in fact , the conventional way of the decision making process does not necessarily meet this specific require ment .
3] PROCESS OF SYSTEMS APPROACH The systematic approach is considered to be effective in relatively new , compli cated and inter - related problem areas . The systems approach is to be executed in a cyclic manner with steady and re peated examination . Each process can be described as follows ,
For example , the siting and location of plants , housing construction , designs o f infra - structure, r o ad or harbour fa cil i ties . reconstructi o n of urban areas have not been managed in an inter - related manner on a comm o n an d c o mprehensive ba sis . Impacts of regional development on the natural and societal environment is tremendous. Such shortcomings are ap parent when we c o nsider the relation between industrial development and pol lution problems . The importance of en vironmental impact assessment has been recently emphasized .
604
-
systems exploration for the purpose of understanding the entirety of the problem ,
-
systems planning as a step towards the establishment of a fundamental direction putting ordre in the way of thinking and offe r ing alterna tives in problem solving ,
-
feasibility study for the purpose of probing thoroughly and from various aspects , the technical p o ssibilities , along the develop ment of prototype system , and
-
documentation for the introduction and guidance required for the im plementation of a real system and for communication purposes .
4] CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF REGIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR COMPUTER ASSISTED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING The main objectives of urban and regio na l management is to exploit the latent and potential capabilities of the subject region to the maximum, taking into account such factors as regional settlement, traffic , environmental impact assessment and citizens ' action for a solution . A comprehensive management system for regional consolidation seeks to promote effectively adjustment activities offering the necessary information for assessment and adjustment purposes . Regional Effects Prediction Subsystem The function of this system is to fore cast multi - dimensiona l effects caused by development , by identifying the network connecting seemingly isolated problems . Effects of development work can be mea sured in the light of regional environment which surrounds human lives , and it con tains various inter - relating factors.
The main function of land use control system is to check whether the land should or not be developed in the light of the nature of the land and to impose fixed conditions on development for the purpose of forming a better regional en vironment . Associated Higher Level System Hyogo Dynamics is identified as an upper system to support a long range comprehen sive planning . 5] A COMPUTER ASSISTED LONG RANGE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING SYSTEM HYOGO DYNAMICS The prefecture needs a "N ew Comprehensive Plan " . The Hyogo Dynamics Model has been developed as an information presentation system to assist work on the New Compre hensive Plan . The activities are being carried on with the participation of both the Council for the Comprehensive Plan which is an advisory body to the governor , and the general public. (1),(3),(6),(15), ( 33 ) , ( 34 ) The Basic Procedure in Systems Planning The process of model development was as follows: - to order problem definition and value system by scenario writing, - to select systems variable.
Through simulation analysis it is ex pected that it will be possible to study the effects of alternative pro brems and policies .
- to divide the problem area into fou: such sectors as population, envlronmental pollution , industry , resources,
Interactive Evaluation and Communication Subsystem
- to establish the structure in the form of a flow diagram , at the same time to frame policies examining positive and negative feed - back loops ,
Symposia and meetings with prefectural inhabitants, repetitive questionnaires , and advisory committees led by general public, shall be integrated in to the method .
- to establish each supposition by reexamination of data availability and collection of data,
Bas ic Regional Information Management Sub sys tem
-
The system consists of an environmental control system and a land use control system. Its function is to offer infor mation on basic elements such as envi ronmental and land use conditions.
to carry out programming and to check major variables by sensitiv ityanalysis ,
- through these processes, to run the simulation of a total model ,
The function of the environmental control system is to check a developing process by establishing a quantitative limit to each activity so as to p r eserve clean water and air and to maintain the service water supply .
- to edit output material by means of diagrams, and - to probe the means of solution by examining the cause of risk and by policy experimentation which alters policy parameters or adds another feed - back loop .
605
The formation of Simulation Systems The Two Levels of Model Structure
Resources Sector
The Hyogo Dynamics includes two models; one is a model for the whole prefecture and the other for the industrialized coastal area along the Seto Inland Sea . *
Food Model : This is to examine a balance of th~unt of food consumption and food production within the prefecture . An approximate estimate of productivity is made in agriculture and fisheries.
The former model will offer informations concerning the maximum capacity of the Prefecture. The latter is mainly used to give warning informations . Since 70% of the population and more than 90% of industrial production are concentrated in this coastal area , the problem areas described in the model de fine the most grave ones in the Hyogo district . There are four major sectors in the sim ulation system as in the following:
Population Sector The population model expresses birth , growth , death and migrating in and out in terms of the different age groups which were divided in five - year groups . In addition two groups of newly born infants and a group of persons 65 years old were established . Industrial Sector Industrial Model : This model is for the secondary industry which is closely related to the problems of environmental pollution , water demand , and the people ' s income in the prefecture . Traffi c Mo del : The traffic model is de signed to describe problems of an urban transportation system by automobiles . In this model the traffic volume has been computed by summing up the number of trips by passenger car and busses and the number of truck trips . Environmental Pollution Sector This sector includes four problem areas such as pollution of the ocean , rivers and air , and solid wastes.
* The
industrialized coastal region in cludes following cities and towns . Amagasaki City , Itami City, Takarazuka City, Kawanishi City , Ashiya City , Kobe City , Akashi City , Harima Town , Inarimi Town , Kakogawa City , Takasago City , Himeji City, Mizu Town , Taishi Town , Ibogawa Town, Tatsuno City , Aioi City, Ako City and Kamigouri Town.
Water Resources Model: The model exam ines the balance between demand and sup ply of water by comparing the two vari able values of the potential water re sources supply and its demand . Energy Demand Model : This model has been added to the previous one in March 1974 , in compliance with a request of Council members . This request was triggered by the worldwide energy crisis . Since energy supply remains uncertain, it is difficult to approach the problem from the viewpoint of supply . Therefore , in this model demand forecasting is done dividing it into the fields of industry , transportation, public welfare , etc .
Warning by Simulation Results ; Population and Industry The standard run tells that the popula tion of Hyogo prefecture will reach 630 million in 2010 , and after then will decrease gradually . The proportion of aged people (65 years or over) would reach 20% in 1995 and would continue to increase thereafter . These results imply that a further and thorough study on the social status of the aged and their welfare should be carried out . Industry is a major cause of environmental pollution . A non too rapid but sta ble growth of industry thus becomes de sirable . Therefore , it is necessary to promote a shift to an intellect - or ien ted industry structure to realize this equi librium of industrial growth. The Environmental Pollution The forecast shows that in the year 2020 air pollution along the coast would be six times , as severe as it is today , river pollution along the coast nine times , ocean pollution five times , solid wastes 10 times through a year and its acc~mulated volume no less than 171 times. Overpopulation in the City Population density in the city area would be four times higher in the year 2020 . This indicates that innovative city deve lopment and control of population and in dustry growth should be recommended.
606
ate r Res our ces ust ria liz ed ate r sho rtag e in the ind muc h mor e se ome bec ld wou a are oas tal pre sen t in the of n sio ver The con ere . ed to ent ori one to ust ria l stru ctu re ycl ing the use rec by ion vat ser con s ard use is nec ess ary . f wat er for ind ust ria l ity Tra nsp ort atio n ld be 2 . 3 tim es 'raf fic con ges tion wou eig ht tim es in and lore sev ere in 198 5 In the yea r 200 0 . ay tod is it n tha ~020 car s wil l rea ch ger sen pas of ;he num ber sho ws tha t a fur s Thi ;atu rat ion lev el . atio n of the ;he r and tho rou gh exa min h emp has is on wit , tem sys n atio ;ra nsp ort , sho uld be ies ilit fac )ub lic tra nsp ort 2ar ried out . Ene rgy rgy dem and in the rhe gro ss amo unt of ene kca ls) wou ld be n llio tri 0 (13 e tur pre fec The ene rgy . 0 202 in e larg six tim es as to be ad e hav s thu sup ply pro blem wil l Eff ort s vis ion . term g lon a h wit d dre sse p a cle an elo dev to and rgy ene to con ser ve l hav e to be ex ene rgy sup ply sys tem wil ami ned . al Con sen sus An App r oac h to a Reg ion can be use d not The mo del ing app roa ch sib le lon g - term fea ng fyi onl y for ide nti ing whi ch of ess goa ls but als o for ass ves can bes t ati ern alt n isio dec s ' tod ay mod el tra ns The . ls goa ach iev e tho se ren t act ion s. cur o lat es fut ure goa ls int n wil l lea d to the The war nin g inf orm atio ple xiti es of com the und ers tan din g of und ers tan ds the one n whe as are blem pro urb an/ reg ion al rea l con stra int s of the can be sep a ons uti sol Fea sib le sys tem . . e ibl rat ed from the inf eas the mec han ism for Reg ion al sym pos ia are acc ept ing tra de and gen era ting con sen sus ) (25 . s off n Bei ng For med A New Com pre hen sive Pla a ser ies of com put The out put res ult s of sub mit ted to re n bee er sim ula tion hav e com pila tion and gio nal sym pos ia aft er The pre sen ta on . tati sen pre edi t t ing for has bee n mad e ple peo tio n to the reg ion al ipp ed wit h a equ ner in a sop his tica ted man sym pos ia The . ch roa app al con ver sat ion ion of reg sub ent fer wer e hel d in 52 dif the opi nio n gat h of 80% . t tric Dis go Hyo ces ses are to be ere d thro ugh the se pro of the new com pre ft dra ref lec ted in the ing 10 yea rs . hen siv e pla n for the com not to imp lem ent The dec isio n whe the r or gov ern or ' s dis the thi s pla n was lef t to . n cre tio
TIO N AND 6) AN AIR POL LUT ION PRE DIC IONAL REG A FOR TEM SYS CONTROL
ESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASS A CASE STUDY
tion of 420 , 000 is Him eji, wit h its pop ula Har ima ind ust ria l g tlin the hub of the bus nd Sea in wes tern reg ion fac ing the Inla der ed by hil ls to bor is y cit The Hon shu . tly sou thw ard to gen pes the nor th and slo mil ls , the rma l pow er the coa st whe re ste el and ma nuf act urin g al mic che ro pet pla nts , sky line . the te ina ind ust rie s dom ust ria l pow er , In add itio n to its ind new kin d of sig ly ire ent Him eji has an tin g gro und for tes It is the nif ica nce : ent usi ng the erim exp g itin exc , a fre sh Jap an ' s mos t of one l tro con com put er to ion . lut pol air ins idi ous bli ght s: h thro ugh A Co nve rsa tion al App roac Com pute r Gra phi cs roa ch is emp loye d A man - mac hin e sys tem s app ass ess ing the in r nne to ass ist the pla reg ion al env iron pro jec ts imp act on the al Em issi on Tot the h wit e lin men t in ion aba tem ent . lut pol air Con trol Law for is intr odu ced tem sys The gra phi c dis pla y amo ng pla nne rs ium med ion icat mun com as a tion sys tem . and the com put er sim ula in suc h a way tha t Our sys tem is des ign ed iste d by inv est i ass is n isio dec a hum an con cen trat ion ion lut pol gat ing the air lev el ove r the und gro the at rns tte pa Gau ssia n plum e mod el is sub jec t are a . wel l est abl ish ed use d on the bas is of a ) , (17 ) ,( 18) ,( 24) (16 sta tis tic al met hod . our ce Air Pol lut ion Sim ula tion of a Mu ltis Dif fus ion for the Him eji Inf orm atio n pro gram med , win d dir ect ion , ed spe d mod el inc lud es win ine d by sol ar term (de atm osp her ic sta bil ity loc atio n of the , ed) spe d win and rad iati on and ef al sic phy ir the smo kes tack s and fac tor y of els fec tiv e hei ght s , and lev Thi s las t n. ptio sum con l fue and ope rati on ent in elem nt orta imp r fac tor was ano the the cho ice of Him eji . roa chi ng the pro ble m , As the bes t way of app ssia n plum e mod el Gau we hav e emp loye d the abo ut 20 x 20 km in the sim ula tion are a Set o Inl and Sea . the of st alo ng the coa ula tion met hod , the In dev elo pin g the sim cul ate d by the cal is ion trat S02 con cen res ult obt ain ed the of lin ear sum mat ion el for a sin gle mod from the Gau ssia n plum suc h tha t the ons diti con the er sta ck und ten tly and sis con ws blo pre vai lin g win d dy sta te . stea its dif fus ion pro ces s is in (30 )
607
Interactive Simulation System for Air Pollution (ISSAP) An interactive simulation system of air pollution (ISSAP) has been developed to show the efficiency and feasibility of an interactive systems approach to solve the air pollution problem. The ISSAP also provides the user with an evaluation tool for planning related to air pollution , such as regional planning and environmental control planning. Graphical representation of simulated results is given on a cathode ray tube display (IBM 2250 graphic display unit) , and moreover , any parameter of the model can be easily retrieved and modified interactively through the display in the course of simulation . (30)
REFERENCES (1)
Shiina , T ., Systems Approach to Human Survival , Life Science Symposium , Tokyo , Nov . 1974 .
(2)
Nikkei Sangyo Shimbun (Japan Econo mic Industry Press) Hyogo Dynamics 15 October 1973 .
(3)
Planning councilor in charge of the Comprehensive plan , Planning Depart ment , Hyogo prefecture , As to Plan ning of the Comprehensive plan and the Long range policy examination works , December 1973 .
(4)
Information division , Hyogo prefecture Hyogo prefecture in f i fty years after , What would happen if the present situation continues New Hyogo. Jan . 1974 .
(5)
Supervision of Satoru Ogasawara , Hyogo Dynamics Research Team , Hyogo Dynamics , Shinyosha , forthcoming 1975.
(6)
Hyogo Dynamics Research Team (1974) Hyogo Dynamics , ' bit ' 6 , p . 61 - 68 .
(7)
Planning department , Hyogo prefecture , Econometric anal y sis and Living structure analysis , 1968 .
(8)
Kawasaki , S ., (1974) , OIR on a local administration , Operations Resea r ch vol. 7 , p. 8 - 12 .
(9)
Institute of Social Development Statistics , Social Indicator Sy stem Study i n Hy ogo trefecture in Fiscal 1973 , March 197 .
Environmental Impact Assessment Pollution control in Japan has been lagging because of the failure to relate cause and effect . However , with the model , it is now possible to determine in advance the pattern in which pollutants will diffuse in d irecti on , density , and so on - under any combination of conditions . And it is possible to obtain a diffusion pattern not only for the area , but for each individual smokestack as well . This kind of information will make it possible to determine , for example , not to permit the construction of a new plant at site ' A ' because its smokestack emission will contaminate area ' B ' which is a residential section , or to reduce factory operation during certain hours in certain months when prevailing wind currents could otherwise carry contaminants over dense population areas .
7] CONCLUDING REMARKS
(10) Sy stem Dy namics , " bit " special issue vol . 5 , No . 13 . (11) Forrester, Jay W., Urban Dy namics , the MIT Press , 1969.
We hope systems concepts will assist in ac celerating communication between poeple and organization with diversified value systems .
(12 ) Hamilton , H . R ., et al. , Systems Simulation for Regional Anal y sis an Application to River Basin Plan~ing the MIT Press , 1969 .
An interactive and conversational systems approach seems to have been effective for a human idea and experiences to be incorpo rated and realized in the process of resolv ing urban and regional problem complex .
(13) Matsuzaki , T . , Pollution Infor mation Control and Environmental Impact Assessment by Computer , Kankyo Gijutsu (Environmental technology) , June 1974.
ACKHOYlLEDGEI1ENT
(14) Ishida , I. , Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M., Udo , M., The State of the Art Survey Report on Systems for Environ mental Control and Com p uter , Report of Tokyo Scientific Center , IBM Japan NG318 - 0009 - 1 , December 1972 .
The authors would like to appreciate the assistance and cooperative efforts in carry ing out project activities , by staff members of Hyogo Prefecture (Hyogo Dynamics Team, Air Pollution Prediction Research Team and (15) Hyogo Dynamics Research Team (Hyogo Himeji City Team) , Tokyo Scient ific Center , Prefecture), Environmental Project IBM Japan and the Ministry of Educat ion Research Team , Tokyo Scientific Center (The Environmental Pollution Control Project) . IBM Japan , A Computer Assisted Long
608
Range Comprehensive Planning System Study meeting for Simulation Tech niques , Social System Model Symposium May 1974 . (16) Matsuzaki , T ., System for Air Pollution Forecasting and Control by Computer , Keiso , January 1974 . (17) Matsuzaki , T. , Diffusion Simulation of Air Pollution - Interactive Approach by Computer , 0 H M Journal March 1973 . (18) Ogasawara , S ., Development of Air Pollution Diffusion Forecasting System in Hyogo Pr e fecture , IBM Review No . 44 , 1973 . (19) Ki shida , J ., Lecture s on the Structure of Post Industrial Society . Infor mation Society Sc i ence 8 , Discussion of Information Society (infor mationalized society theory) II. (20) Sawaragi , Y. , Nai t o u, M., Systems Engineering Appr oach to Environmental Controls , Nippon Kikai Gakkaishi (Japan Machine Society Journal) A special edition of large scale tech nology development, Aug . 1973 . (21) James , L ., McElroy and Francis Pooler , Jr ., St . Louis Dispersion Stud y Vol . II - Anal y sis , U . S . Department of Health , Education and We l fare , December 1968. (22) Shi e h , L . J. , Halpern , P . K. , Clemens , B.A ., Wang, H. H . an d Abraham , F . F . The IBM Air Qualit y Diffusion Model with an Application to New York City , IBM Palo Alto Scientific Center Report G320 - 3290 , June 1971 . (23) Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M. , Udo , M., and Ogasawara , S ., A Systems Approach to a Prediction and Control of the Air Pollution i n the Local Government of Japan - Dist rict of Hyogo , Proceedings of the 1st World Congress of Environ mental Medicine and Biology , UNESCO House , Paris , July 1974.
(26) Collins , J.F., Managing Our Cities Can We Do Better? Readings in Urban Dynamics Vol . 1 , Wright - Allen Press , 1974. (27) Forrester , J.W ., Systems Analysis as a Tool for Urban Planning (28) Alfred , L . E ., and Meadows , D . L ., A Systems Approach to Urban Revival ~ (29) Gabus, A. , DEMATEL - Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, Communication Procedure, Battelle , 1973 . (30) Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M., and Udo M. , An Air Pollution Prediction and Control System for a regional environ mental i mpact assessment - a conver sational approach through computer graphics. Symposium on Modelling for Prediction and Control of Air Pol lution held in Kyoto , Feb. 1975 . (31) THINK Magazine , IBM , January - February , 1974 . (32) Hyogo Prefecture , Prefectural Develop men t P l an , 1970. (33) Matsuzaki , T ., Ogasawara , S ., and Sawaragi , Y., A Computer - Assisted Long Range Com pr ehensive Planning Sy stem for a Regiona l Project Impact Assess ment as a Subs y stem of Regional Manage ment Sy stem , Proceedings of Conference on National Settlement Systems and St r ategies , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Austria , Dec . 1974 . (34) Ogasawara , S. , (Hyogo Dynamics Team) and Environmental Control Research Project Team (Tokyo Scientific Center, IBM Japan) , A Systems Appr o ach to Regional Problems -- Hyogo Dynamics to the Regional Management System , IBM Review , No . 52, Dec . 1974 .
(24) Environmental Control Research Project Team (IBM Sci . Center) and Air Pol lution Prediction Special Research Team (Hyogo District) , The Interim Report on Group Research - Development of an Air Pollution Diffusion Model for Himeji City , IBM Japan , Tokyo Scientific Center Report Z318 - 1906 - 0 , 1973 (25) Mass , N. J ., ed ., Readings in Urban Dynamics Vol . I, Wright - Allen Press , 1974 .
609
T. Shiina , President , IBM Japan. S . Ogasawara *, Director of Planning Dept . Hyogo Prefecture T. Matsuzaki*,* Sr . Researcher Tokyo Scientific Center , IBM Japan *** Y. Sawaragi , Professor , Kyoto University ABSTRACT A systems approach has been made to assist planners in drawing a regional plan along with a comprehensive plan through the use of HYOGO DYNAMICS - a computer assisted planning system . Regional development projects are assessed from the point of view of economical , social and environmental impact . A multi - level model structure is employed both for industrializ ed regions along the Seto Inland Sea and for the rest of Hyogo Prefecture . Simulation results on computers have been successfully submitted to symposia attended by residents of the regions in order to obtain a consensus. A regional manage ment system concept is proposed. INTRODUCTION Japan has attained today the highest degree of affluence and prosperity in its history as a result of the great strides made by its economy in recent years . Its National Gross Product ranks second in the Free World after the United States . This fast growth of the economy , however , has created various social strains . For instance , environmental pollution has become a nation - wide problem , jeopardizing the living environment and the health of the people. (1) , (23) Hyogo Prefecture has set its sights on the realization by 1985 of a " New Com prehensive Plan " that would result in the creation of a welfare state. This plan , will replace and complement an earlier plan, which , upon examination in the light of present conditions , proved to lack a sufficiently concrete and systematic attitude towards human life , social welfare and cultural re quirements . (2),(3) , (4) , (32) I FAC S ix t h Tri enn ia l Wo rl d Con gress, Bo s to n /C ambri d g e , Aug . 1975 .
The Comprehensive Plan consists of a basic plan and a regional development plan. In drawing up the basic plan , consideration had to be given to the long - term possibilities and limitations of important societal elements. In the regional development plan , region al management concepts require the es tablishment of multi - dimensional assess ment criteria so as to enable the respon sible planners to make sensible decisions under uncertain conditions. The factors to be evaluated are not always quantita tive . Therefore , it is essential that tested value systems of experienced plan ners be incorporated into the management support systems , together with the partici pation of citizens and that of researchers in system development . (33)
*
Hy o g o Dy nam i c sTeam , Hy o g o Pref . (H . Miyazaki et al . )
** Pr oj ec t L ea de r, Env ir onment a l Co n t r ol T ea m. ( M. Oh k ohch i, M. Udo ) *** Env ir o nmental P o ll ut i on Cont r ol Pr oject , Ministry o f Ed uca t i o n . ( J . Ko n do e t al. )
603
IJ THE PROBLEM AND REQUIREMENT STATEMENT The objective of the new comprehensive plan , stated in general terms , is to frame an effective political strategy for a wide range of problem areas with an inter - related complex structure , tak ing into account the social and economic developments in Hyogo prefecture up to the 21st century . This should be follow ed by the full examination of its long term trend in time as well as in regional and policy space . (3) , (32) , (33) The Necessity of Long - Term Comprehensive Information for Trade - Offs The way to problem solution must be prob ed not only by an individual and sepa rate approach but by a comprehensive and systematic approach .
Widening Discrepancies between Planning and Management The wide gap between planning and manage ment is evidence that planning has not been responsive to the needs of the deci sion makers . A unique feature of a sys tems approach is its potential for bridg ing this gap . (26) 2J THE OBJECTIVE OF SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT Regi o n a l development projects require the establishment of a management system in order to adjust the series of process es of development from the framing stage to its implementation . Urban and regional management in our coun try is a key area in recent studies of local government as well as of national government because of the seriousness of the complexity of the problems .
Furthermore , it is necessary to assess the effectiveness of political decision for a reasonably long period since many of such decisions which once appeared appropriate from the short - term view have proved to cause new contradictions after some decades . Trade - offs are to be made properly by feeding and forward ing appropriate information .
These functions aim to promote popular understanding , when residents join in planning activities , of trade - off rela tionships in dealing with environment , traffic problems and the quality of life so as to eliminate paroch i alism .
Primarily , the absence of a long - term outlook in urban and regional decision making has led to conflicts between in dividual agencies and to the ineffective ness of many programs .
For the time being the emphasis will be put on the issuing of warning information. Development activities in this field will continue until policy decisions for the Comprehensive Plan are completed .
Urban and Regional Management for the Solution of Complex Regional Problems
Trade - offs and compromises are inevitable . We can no longer afford to manage accord ing to a set of utopian objectives , mere ly dependent on " crisis management ". (20) , (25) , ( 26)
It is widely and generally accepted that a regional development project should be an instrument to improve the welfare of the people and the quality of life which in itself is diversified and has multi ple obj e ctives . However , in fact , the conventional way of the decision making process does not necessarily meet this specific require ment .
3] PROCESS OF SYSTEMS APPROACH The systematic approach is considered to be effective in relatively new , compli cated and inter - related problem areas . The systems approach is to be executed in a cyclic manner with steady and re peated examination . Each process can be described as follows ,
For example , the siting and location of plants , housing construction , designs o f infra - structure, r o ad or harbour fa cil i ties . reconstructi o n of urban areas have not been managed in an inter - related manner on a comm o n an d c o mprehensive ba sis . Impacts of regional development on the natural and societal environment is tremendous. Such shortcomings are ap parent when we c o nsider the relation between industrial development and pol lution problems . The importance of en vironmental impact assessment has been recently emphasized .
604
-
systems exploration for the purpose of understanding the entirety of the problem ,
-
systems planning as a step towards the establishment of a fundamental direction putting ordre in the way of thinking and offe r ing alterna tives in problem solving ,
-
feasibility study for the purpose of probing thoroughly and from various aspects , the technical p o ssibilities , along the develop ment of prototype system , and
-
documentation for the introduction and guidance required for the im plementation of a real system and for communication purposes .
4] CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF REGIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR COMPUTER ASSISTED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING The main objectives of urban and regio na l management is to exploit the latent and potential capabilities of the subject region to the maximum, taking into account such factors as regional settlement, traffic , environmental impact assessment and citizens ' action for a solution . A comprehensive management system for regional consolidation seeks to promote effectively adjustment activities offering the necessary information for assessment and adjustment purposes . Regional Effects Prediction Subsystem The function of this system is to fore cast multi - dimensiona l effects caused by development , by identifying the network connecting seemingly isolated problems . Effects of development work can be mea sured in the light of regional environment which surrounds human lives , and it con tains various inter - relating factors.
The main function of land use control system is to check whether the land should or not be developed in the light of the nature of the land and to impose fixed conditions on development for the purpose of forming a better regional en vironment . Associated Higher Level System Hyogo Dynamics is identified as an upper system to support a long range comprehen sive planning . 5] A COMPUTER ASSISTED LONG RANGE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING SYSTEM HYOGO DYNAMICS The prefecture needs a "N ew Comprehensive Plan " . The Hyogo Dynamics Model has been developed as an information presentation system to assist work on the New Compre hensive Plan . The activities are being carried on with the participation of both the Council for the Comprehensive Plan which is an advisory body to the governor , and the general public. (1),(3),(6),(15), ( 33 ) , ( 34 ) The Basic Procedure in Systems Planning The process of model development was as follows: - to order problem definition and value system by scenario writing, - to select systems variable.
Through simulation analysis it is ex pected that it will be possible to study the effects of alternative pro brems and policies .
- to divide the problem area into fou: such sectors as population, envlronmental pollution , industry , resources,
Interactive Evaluation and Communication Subsystem
- to establish the structure in the form of a flow diagram , at the same time to frame policies examining positive and negative feed - back loops ,
Symposia and meetings with prefectural inhabitants, repetitive questionnaires , and advisory committees led by general public, shall be integrated in to the method .
- to establish each supposition by reexamination of data availability and collection of data,
Bas ic Regional Information Management Sub sys tem
-
The system consists of an environmental control system and a land use control system. Its function is to offer infor mation on basic elements such as envi ronmental and land use conditions.
to carry out programming and to check major variables by sensitiv ityanalysis ,
- through these processes, to run the simulation of a total model ,
The function of the environmental control system is to check a developing process by establishing a quantitative limit to each activity so as to p r eserve clean water and air and to maintain the service water supply .
- to edit output material by means of diagrams, and - to probe the means of solution by examining the cause of risk and by policy experimentation which alters policy parameters or adds another feed - back loop .
605
The formation of Simulation Systems The Two Levels of Model Structure
Resources Sector
The Hyogo Dynamics includes two models; one is a model for the whole prefecture and the other for the industrialized coastal area along the Seto Inland Sea . *
Food Model : This is to examine a balance of th~unt of food consumption and food production within the prefecture . An approximate estimate of productivity is made in agriculture and fisheries.
The former model will offer informations concerning the maximum capacity of the Prefecture. The latter is mainly used to give warning informations . Since 70% of the population and more than 90% of industrial production are concentrated in this coastal area , the problem areas described in the model de fine the most grave ones in the Hyogo district . There are four major sectors in the sim ulation system as in the following:
Population Sector The population model expresses birth , growth , death and migrating in and out in terms of the different age groups which were divided in five - year groups . In addition two groups of newly born infants and a group of persons 65 years old were established . Industrial Sector Industrial Model : This model is for the secondary industry which is closely related to the problems of environmental pollution , water demand , and the people ' s income in the prefecture . Traffi c Mo del : The traffic model is de signed to describe problems of an urban transportation system by automobiles . In this model the traffic volume has been computed by summing up the number of trips by passenger car and busses and the number of truck trips . Environmental Pollution Sector This sector includes four problem areas such as pollution of the ocean , rivers and air , and solid wastes.
* The
industrialized coastal region in cludes following cities and towns . Amagasaki City , Itami City, Takarazuka City, Kawanishi City , Ashiya City , Kobe City , Akashi City , Harima Town , Inarimi Town , Kakogawa City , Takasago City , Himeji City, Mizu Town , Taishi Town , Ibogawa Town, Tatsuno City , Aioi City, Ako City and Kamigouri Town.
Water Resources Model: The model exam ines the balance between demand and sup ply of water by comparing the two vari able values of the potential water re sources supply and its demand . Energy Demand Model : This model has been added to the previous one in March 1974 , in compliance with a request of Council members . This request was triggered by the worldwide energy crisis . Since energy supply remains uncertain, it is difficult to approach the problem from the viewpoint of supply . Therefore , in this model demand forecasting is done dividing it into the fields of industry , transportation, public welfare , etc .
Warning by Simulation Results ; Population and Industry The standard run tells that the popula tion of Hyogo prefecture will reach 630 million in 2010 , and after then will decrease gradually . The proportion of aged people (65 years or over) would reach 20% in 1995 and would continue to increase thereafter . These results imply that a further and thorough study on the social status of the aged and their welfare should be carried out . Industry is a major cause of environmental pollution . A non too rapid but sta ble growth of industry thus becomes de sirable . Therefore , it is necessary to promote a shift to an intellect - or ien ted industry structure to realize this equi librium of industrial growth. The Environmental Pollution The forecast shows that in the year 2020 air pollution along the coast would be six times , as severe as it is today , river pollution along the coast nine times , ocean pollution five times , solid wastes 10 times through a year and its acc~mulated volume no less than 171 times. Overpopulation in the City Population density in the city area would be four times higher in the year 2020 . This indicates that innovative city deve lopment and control of population and in dustry growth should be recommended.
606
ate r Res our ces ust ria liz ed ate r sho rtag e in the ind muc h mor e se ome bec ld wou a are oas tal pre sen t in the of n sio ver The con ere . ed to ent ori one to ust ria l stru ctu re ycl ing the use rec by ion vat ser con s ard use is nec ess ary . f wat er for ind ust ria l ity Tra nsp ort atio n ld be 2 . 3 tim es 'raf fic con ges tion wou eig ht tim es in and lore sev ere in 198 5 In the yea r 200 0 . ay tod is it n tha ~020 car s wil l rea ch ger sen pas of ;he num ber sho ws tha t a fur s Thi ;atu rat ion lev el . atio n of the ;he r and tho rou gh exa min h emp has is on wit , tem sys n atio ;ra nsp ort , sho uld be ies ilit fac )ub lic tra nsp ort 2ar ried out . Ene rgy rgy dem and in the rhe gro ss amo unt of ene kca ls) wou ld be n llio tri 0 (13 e tur pre fec The ene rgy . 0 202 in e larg six tim es as to be ad e hav s thu sup ply pro blem wil l Eff ort s vis ion . term g lon a h wit d dre sse p a cle an elo dev to and rgy ene to con ser ve l hav e to be ex ene rgy sup ply sys tem wil ami ned . al Con sen sus An App r oac h to a Reg ion can be use d not The mo del ing app roa ch sib le lon g - term fea ng fyi onl y for ide nti ing whi ch of ess goa ls but als o for ass ves can bes t ati ern alt n isio dec s ' tod ay mod el tra ns The . ls goa ach iev e tho se ren t act ion s. cur o lat es fut ure goa ls int n wil l lea d to the The war nin g inf orm atio ple xiti es of com the und ers tan din g of und ers tan ds the one n whe as are blem pro urb an/ reg ion al rea l con stra int s of the can be sep a ons uti sol Fea sib le sys tem . . e ibl rat ed from the inf eas the mec han ism for Reg ion al sym pos ia are acc ept ing tra de and gen era ting con sen sus ) (25 . s off n Bei ng For med A New Com pre hen sive Pla a ser ies of com put The out put res ult s of sub mit ted to re n bee er sim ula tion hav e com pila tion and gio nal sym pos ia aft er The pre sen ta on . tati sen pre edi t t ing for has bee n mad e ple peo tio n to the reg ion al ipp ed wit h a equ ner in a sop his tica ted man sym pos ia The . ch roa app al con ver sat ion ion of reg sub ent fer wer e hel d in 52 dif the opi nio n gat h of 80% . t tric Dis go Hyo ces ses are to be ere d thro ugh the se pro of the new com pre ft dra ref lec ted in the ing 10 yea rs . hen siv e pla n for the com not to imp lem ent The dec isio n whe the r or gov ern or ' s dis the thi s pla n was lef t to . n cre tio
TIO N AND 6) AN AIR POL LUT ION PRE DIC IONAL REG A FOR TEM SYS CONTROL
ESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASS A CASE STUDY
tion of 420 , 000 is Him eji, wit h its pop ula Har ima ind ust ria l g tlin the hub of the bus nd Sea in wes tern reg ion fac ing the Inla der ed by hil ls to bor is y cit The Hon shu . tly sou thw ard to gen pes the nor th and slo mil ls , the rma l pow er the coa st whe re ste el and ma nuf act urin g al mic che ro pet pla nts , sky line . the te ina ind ust rie s dom ust ria l pow er , In add itio n to its ind new kin d of sig ly ire ent Him eji has an tin g gro und for tes It is the nif ica nce : ent usi ng the erim exp g itin exc , a fre sh Jap an ' s mos t of one l tro con com put er to ion . lut pol air ins idi ous bli ght s: h thro ugh A Co nve rsa tion al App roac Com pute r Gra phi cs roa ch is emp loye d A man - mac hin e sys tem s app ass ess ing the in r nne to ass ist the pla reg ion al env iron pro jec ts imp act on the al Em issi on Tot the h wit e lin men t in ion aba tem ent . lut pol air Con trol Law for is intr odu ced tem sys The gra phi c dis pla y amo ng pla nne rs ium med ion icat mun com as a tion sys tem . and the com put er sim ula in suc h a way tha t Our sys tem is des ign ed iste d by inv est i ass is n isio dec a hum an con cen trat ion ion lut pol gat ing the air lev el ove r the und gro the at rns tte pa Gau ssia n plum e mod el is sub jec t are a . wel l est abl ish ed use d on the bas is of a ) , (17 ) ,( 18) ,( 24) (16 sta tis tic al met hod . our ce Air Pol lut ion Sim ula tion of a Mu ltis Dif fus ion for the Him eji Inf orm atio n pro gram med , win d dir ect ion , ed spe d mod el inc lud es win ine d by sol ar term (de atm osp her ic sta bil ity loc atio n of the , ed) spe d win and rad iati on and ef al sic phy ir the smo kes tack s and fac tor y of els fec tiv e hei ght s , and lev Thi s las t n. ptio sum con l fue and ope rati on ent in elem nt orta imp r fac tor was ano the the cho ice of Him eji . roa chi ng the pro ble m , As the bes t way of app ssia n plum e mod el Gau we hav e emp loye d the abo ut 20 x 20 km in the sim ula tion are a Set o Inl and Sea . the of st alo ng the coa ula tion met hod , the In dev elo pin g the sim cul ate d by the cal is ion trat S02 con cen res ult obt ain ed the of lin ear sum mat ion el for a sin gle mod from the Gau ssia n plum suc h tha t the ons diti con the er sta ck und ten tly and sis con ws blo pre vai lin g win d dy sta te . stea its dif fus ion pro ces s is in (30 )
607
Interactive Simulation System for Air Pollution (ISSAP) An interactive simulation system of air pollution (ISSAP) has been developed to show the efficiency and feasibility of an interactive systems approach to solve the air pollution problem. The ISSAP also provides the user with an evaluation tool for planning related to air pollution , such as regional planning and environmental control planning. Graphical representation of simulated results is given on a cathode ray tube display (IBM 2250 graphic display unit) , and moreover , any parameter of the model can be easily retrieved and modified interactively through the display in the course of simulation . (30)
REFERENCES (1)
Shiina , T ., Systems Approach to Human Survival , Life Science Symposium , Tokyo , Nov . 1974 .
(2)
Nikkei Sangyo Shimbun (Japan Econo mic Industry Press) Hyogo Dynamics 15 October 1973 .
(3)
Planning councilor in charge of the Comprehensive plan , Planning Depart ment , Hyogo prefecture , As to Plan ning of the Comprehensive plan and the Long range policy examination works , December 1973 .
(4)
Information division , Hyogo prefecture Hyogo prefecture in f i fty years after , What would happen if the present situation continues New Hyogo. Jan . 1974 .
(5)
Supervision of Satoru Ogasawara , Hyogo Dynamics Research Team , Hyogo Dynamics , Shinyosha , forthcoming 1975.
(6)
Hyogo Dynamics Research Team (1974) Hyogo Dynamics , ' bit ' 6 , p . 61 - 68 .
(7)
Planning department , Hyogo prefecture , Econometric anal y sis and Living structure analysis , 1968 .
(8)
Kawasaki , S ., (1974) , OIR on a local administration , Operations Resea r ch vol. 7 , p. 8 - 12 .
(9)
Institute of Social Development Statistics , Social Indicator Sy stem Study i n Hy ogo trefecture in Fiscal 1973 , March 197 .
Environmental Impact Assessment Pollution control in Japan has been lagging because of the failure to relate cause and effect . However , with the model , it is now possible to determine in advance the pattern in which pollutants will diffuse in d irecti on , density , and so on - under any combination of conditions . And it is possible to obtain a diffusion pattern not only for the area , but for each individual smokestack as well . This kind of information will make it possible to determine , for example , not to permit the construction of a new plant at site ' A ' because its smokestack emission will contaminate area ' B ' which is a residential section , or to reduce factory operation during certain hours in certain months when prevailing wind currents could otherwise carry contaminants over dense population areas .
7] CONCLUDING REMARKS
(10) Sy stem Dy namics , " bit " special issue vol . 5 , No . 13 . (11) Forrester, Jay W., Urban Dy namics , the MIT Press , 1969.
We hope systems concepts will assist in ac celerating communication between poeple and organization with diversified value systems .
(12 ) Hamilton , H . R ., et al. , Systems Simulation for Regional Anal y sis an Application to River Basin Plan~ing the MIT Press , 1969 .
An interactive and conversational systems approach seems to have been effective for a human idea and experiences to be incorpo rated and realized in the process of resolv ing urban and regional problem complex .
(13) Matsuzaki , T . , Pollution Infor mation Control and Environmental Impact Assessment by Computer , Kankyo Gijutsu (Environmental technology) , June 1974.
ACKHOYlLEDGEI1ENT
(14) Ishida , I. , Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M., Udo , M., The State of the Art Survey Report on Systems for Environ mental Control and Com p uter , Report of Tokyo Scientific Center , IBM Japan NG318 - 0009 - 1 , December 1972 .
The authors would like to appreciate the assistance and cooperative efforts in carry ing out project activities , by staff members of Hyogo Prefecture (Hyogo Dynamics Team, Air Pollution Prediction Research Team and (15) Hyogo Dynamics Research Team (Hyogo Himeji City Team) , Tokyo Scient ific Center , Prefecture), Environmental Project IBM Japan and the Ministry of Educat ion Research Team , Tokyo Scientific Center (The Environmental Pollution Control Project) . IBM Japan , A Computer Assisted Long
608
Range Comprehensive Planning System Study meeting for Simulation Tech niques , Social System Model Symposium May 1974 . (16) Matsuzaki , T ., System for Air Pollution Forecasting and Control by Computer , Keiso , January 1974 . (17) Matsuzaki , T. , Diffusion Simulation of Air Pollution - Interactive Approach by Computer , 0 H M Journal March 1973 . (18) Ogasawara , S ., Development of Air Pollution Diffusion Forecasting System in Hyogo Pr e fecture , IBM Review No . 44 , 1973 . (19) Ki shida , J ., Lecture s on the Structure of Post Industrial Society . Infor mation Society Sc i ence 8 , Discussion of Information Society (infor mationalized society theory) II. (20) Sawaragi , Y. , Nai t o u, M., Systems Engineering Appr oach to Environmental Controls , Nippon Kikai Gakkaishi (Japan Machine Society Journal) A special edition of large scale tech nology development, Aug . 1973 . (21) James , L ., McElroy and Francis Pooler , Jr ., St . Louis Dispersion Stud y Vol . II - Anal y sis , U . S . Department of Health , Education and We l fare , December 1968. (22) Shi e h , L . J. , Halpern , P . K. , Clemens , B.A ., Wang, H. H . an d Abraham , F . F . The IBM Air Qualit y Diffusion Model with an Application to New York City , IBM Palo Alto Scientific Center Report G320 - 3290 , June 1971 . (23) Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M. , Udo , M., and Ogasawara , S ., A Systems Approach to a Prediction and Control of the Air Pollution i n the Local Government of Japan - Dist rict of Hyogo , Proceedings of the 1st World Congress of Environ mental Medicine and Biology , UNESCO House , Paris , July 1974.
(26) Collins , J.F., Managing Our Cities Can We Do Better? Readings in Urban Dynamics Vol . 1 , Wright - Allen Press , 1974. (27) Forrester , J.W ., Systems Analysis as a Tool for Urban Planning (28) Alfred , L . E ., and Meadows , D . L ., A Systems Approach to Urban Revival ~ (29) Gabus, A. , DEMATEL - Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, Communication Procedure, Battelle , 1973 . (30) Matsuzaki , T ., Ohkohchi , M., and Udo M. , An Air Pollution Prediction and Control System for a regional environ mental i mpact assessment - a conver sational approach through computer graphics. Symposium on Modelling for Prediction and Control of Air Pol lution held in Kyoto , Feb. 1975 . (31) THINK Magazine , IBM , January - February , 1974 . (32) Hyogo Prefecture , Prefectural Develop men t P l an , 1970. (33) Matsuzaki , T ., Ogasawara , S ., and Sawaragi , Y., A Computer - Assisted Long Range Com pr ehensive Planning Sy stem for a Regiona l Project Impact Assess ment as a Subs y stem of Regional Manage ment Sy stem , Proceedings of Conference on National Settlement Systems and St r ategies , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Austria , Dec . 1974 . (34) Ogasawara , S. , (Hyogo Dynamics Team) and Environmental Control Research Project Team (Tokyo Scientific Center, IBM Japan) , A Systems Appr o ach to Regional Problems -- Hyogo Dynamics to the Regional Management System , IBM Review , No . 52, Dec . 1974 .
(24) Environmental Control Research Project Team (IBM Sci . Center) and Air Pol lution Prediction Special Research Team (Hyogo District) , The Interim Report on Group Research - Development of an Air Pollution Diffusion Model for Himeji City , IBM Japan , Tokyo Scientific Center Report Z318 - 1906 - 0 , 1973 (25) Mass , N. J ., ed ., Readings in Urban Dynamics Vol . I, Wright - Allen Press , 1974 .
609