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A critical-analysis on the development of China hydropower
Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
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Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Review
A critical-analysis on the development of China hydropower Zhao Xingang, Liu Lu *, Liu Xiaomeng, Wang Jieyu, Liu Pingkuo School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beinong Road No. 2, Beijing 102206, China
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 9 March 2011 Accepted 10 January 2012 Available online 22 February 2012
With the increasing scarcity of fossil fuel resources, the demand for greenhouse gas reduction and environmental protection all over the world, developing hydropower becomes one of the most important energy strategies. This paper introduces the current development situation of hydropower in China from following aspects: economy, environment and society as well as assesses their existing problems, and then demonstrates that China must accelerate the development of small hydropower and CDM projects in order to realize the sustainable development of economy, environment and society. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hydropower Small hydropower Sustainable development
1. Introduction Chinese government has paid increasing attention to economic, environmental and social benefits of energy’s sustainable development. As specified in the 11th Five-Year Plan for Development of Renewable Energy, consumption of non-fossil fuel will account for 15% of the primary energy consumption by 2020, and carbon emissions will reduce by 40%e45% by 2020 compared with 2005. Hydropower, due to its huge reserves (Fig. 1) as well as its economic, environmental and social benefits, will orient the development of renewable energy during the 12th Five-Year Plan. However, the potential problems such as immigration, environment and social cost constrain the sustainable development of hydropower, and how to coordinate the development of hydropower and those problems is crucial to the whole economic and social development. This paper described the current situation of hydropower development from the following three aspects: economy, environment and society, and analyzes their existing problems, then points out some relevant suggestions and prospects. 2. The current situation of hydropower 2.1. Overall situation of small hydropower Hydropower, due to its huge reserves (Fig. 1) as well as its economic, environmental and social benefit, will orient the development of renewable energy during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ86 15210725703. E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Lu). 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.005
2.1.1. Economic benefit As shown in Fig. 1, the installed capacity of hydropower and GDP increased significantly. The installed capacity is 19679 million kW and GDP is 335,353 billion RMB by 2009. The increasing trend of installed capacity is similar to that of economy, except 2004, since the long construction time of hydropower makes its installed capacity increase slowly compared to the increase speed of China’s GDP. In addition, the 12th Five-Year Plan specifies that the investment of hydropower will be 130 million and the total installed capacity will reach 300 million kW by 2020, which implies that hydropower is crucial for the development of renewable energy in China before 2030. Hydropower distribution and regional economic development. Water resource concentrates in the central and southern China and the installed capacities of hydropower in the two areas respectively account for 40.7% and 30.7%. The other area’s proportions can be seen from Fig. 3. China’s economy developed well in eastern, northern and central China, with GDP of 25.9%, 21.4%, 20.3% respectively. The economy of the southern regions is also developing rapidly, which is account for 16.1%, but the economy of northwest, northeast develops relatively slow, account for 5.2% and 8.4% respectively (Figs. 2 and 3). The distribution of hydropower has a big coupling with regional economic growth in China. For instance, southern and eastern China developed economy well with little primary energy but rich hydropower resources, which implies hydropower is the motive force for the economic development. Operation efficiency and additional economic benefits. The hydropower enterprises have advantages in growth ability, operation ability, profit-making ability, compared with thermal
2
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
Fig. 1. The installed capacity and GDP and their respective rate in China. Fig. 3. Regional GDP rate in 2009 [5].
power. For instance, the total profit is 268.64 billion (Tables 1 and 2), which is higher than that of in the firepower enterprise. The hydropower enterprise doesn’t need to pay fuel costs, and thus obtain the significant economic benefits. Moreover, hydropower has high net asset growth rate, which are good for the rapid development of renewable energy. Hydropower projects can also stimulate the development of local economy and improve local people’s living standard. 2.1.2. Environmental benefits According to statistics, SO2 emissions are about 20 million tons per year, 50% of which are from thermal power [6]. The construction of three gorges project reduces the coal’s consumption over 30 million tons as well asSO20.5 million tons. Fig. 4 shows the energy returns rate of various forms. Obviously, hydropower has environmental benefits for energy conservation and emission reduction. Hydropower also has a positive effect on river ecosystem [7]. Firstly, it’s helpful for the rational allocation of water resources and improving rivers’ adjustment ability, which makes rivers motive. According to statistics, there is 300 million tons of sediment rushed into the sea during the five water-sediment regulations in 2002e2005, which improves the minimum flow capacity from 1800 m3 per second to 3500 m3 per second. Secondly, it improves rivers’ regulation ability, which will reduce floodwater damage. Thirdly, it will help to prevent the discontinuous flow and improve ecosystem. 2.1.3. Social benefits Hydropower project as a practical activity has features such as flood control, irrigation, shipping as well as supply water for people’s daily life and social life. Take the three gorges for example. The flood control system is in shape, which has improved the flood control standards from ten years in the past to hundred years now.
Fig. 2. Regional distribution of China hydropower in 2009 [4].
In addition, shipping conditions has improved greatly, the freight volume breakthroughs 50 million tons in 2006, which has become the golden waterway [8]. 2.2. Current situation of small hydropower In China, the small hydropower, also called the rural hydropower, is a hydropower station with installed capacity less than 5 million kW. The small hydropower has achieved social, environmental and economic benefits for the following advantages: no necessary emigration, appropriate scale, economical investment, short construction period and rapid recovery. Therefore, in order to ensure the development of hydropower adapt to the economy’s development, China needs to develop small hydropower based on local conditions. 2.2.1. Economic benefit The installed capacity of small hydropower and economic growth. The installed capacity of China’s small hydropower increases 2e3 million kW annually. By the end of 2009, there were 45,000 hydropower stations with total installed capacity of nearly 55.12 million kW and annual generating capacity reached nearly 160 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of the whole respectively. China’s small hydropower is growing mature. According to statistics, the construction scale is almost 20 million kW and the hydropower potential is 87 M kW, which occupies 40% of the world’s total [9] and is No. 1 in the world. The economically potential capacity is about 120 million kW and undeveloped resources is nearly 90 million kW [10], which implies that small hydropower has a bright future (The total demand for the small hydropower is predicted to be 575.2 kWh by 2020 [1]) The distribution of small hydropower and regional economy’s growth. The small hydropower mainly distributes in southwest China, which accounts for 44.3% of the whole country’s hydropower potential. In addition, northwest, central and eastern China account for 13.2%, 21.1%, and 13.2% respectively (Fig. 5). With contrast to Fig. 4, the distributed small hydropower pattern can not only solve the regional problems and relieve the pressure of power grid, but also promote the rapid development of China’s economy. In addition, the small hydropower mainly concentrates in the remote areas which are far from power grid (distributed in1700 mountain areas, and nearly 1/2 areas, 1/3 counties, and 1/4 populations are relying on the small hydropower [11]) and has greatly promoted the development of rural economy. According to statistics, there are 653 counties that have realized primary electrification, especially Hunan province the financial income increased from
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
3
Table 1 The summary of China hydropower resources [3]. Serial number
Project
1
Theory reserves
2
Technology exploited hydropower Economical exploited hydropower Exploited
3
4
Annual generation Average power Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation
Unit
Value
Billion-kWh Million-kW Station Million-kW Billion-kWh Station Million-kW Billion-kWh Station Million-kW Billion-kWh
60829 69440 13286 þ 28/2 54164 24740 11653 þ 27/2 40179.5 17534 6053 þ 4/2 13098.19 5258.85
Fig. 4. The energy returns rate of various forms.
2.2.2. Environmental benefits Firstly, the development of small hydropower reduces the environmental pollution. The electricity from small hydropower is about 150 billion kWh, which saves nearly 78 million tons of coal, about 1.7 million tons of soot, 1.8 million tons of sulfur dioxide, 170 million tons of carbon monoxide, and0.64 million tons of chlorinated nitrogen. Secondly, governments are vigorously promoting small hydropower station for wood-fired power plants, which reduces consumption of timber. At present, the small hydropower generation have made it possible for approximately 20 million households to use electricity for cooking, which reduces deforestation about 1333 km2annually, and saves timber of about 9 million m3 [12].
3.76 billion Yuan to 5.996 billion Yuan during the 11th Fiveyear Plan [11]. Economic benefit of small hydropower station. As shown in Fig. 2, planned installation projects are located in western regions, which accounts for 50%. In addition, the project of small hydropower replacing woody fuel (SHPF) not only improves rural employment, but also releases the farmers’ burden. According to statistics, nearly 8000 farmers benefited from the decreasing of lighting tariff from 0.5 Yuan per kWh to 0.3 RMB per kWh, which decreased farmers’ burden of more than 600,000 thousand RMB [11]. Operation efficiency and additional economic benefits of small hydropower. Small hydropower can bring direct benefits for local government and people. According to statistics, the assets of small hydropower amounted to over 100 billion RMB, the business income is more than 40 billion RMB and net profit is more than 7 billion RMB. At present, there are more than 70 transnational small hydropower companies and 9 companies of them became listed companies. In particular, Sichuan and Guangxi have established small-hydropower-centered group companies at the provincial level. Small hydropower also can partially replace thermal power, which benefits the whole society with resource conservation (the cost of hydropower is definitely lower than that of thermal power), and drive the development of relevant industries (Tables 3 and 4).
2.2.3. Social benefits Firstly, the small hydropower improves farmers’ living conditions due to its low cost for lighting. Secondly, it promotes the development of rural economy for its cheap electricity. Thirdly, it’s useful for irrigation, drought and flood control. At present, China has harnessed thousands of medium and small rivers, which increase capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, irrigates area of 16,866 km2, and solves water problems for 64.25 million people and 47.45 million livestock. Meanwhile, the development of small hydropower in the mountainous areas mainly realizes multiple social benefits, for instance, during the snow disaster in 2008, there were 200 counties and 2000 towns relying on small hydropower [12].
Table 2 The related indexes of Chinese thermal power and hydropower in 2008 [3]. Growth ability
Operation capacity
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Index
Growth rate of industrial output Growth rate of advocate business income (%) Increases or decreases of total profits than that in last year (Billion) The growth rate of total assets (%) The growth rate of net assets (%)
10.04 12.18 996.31
23.5 24.8 23.86
Occupied fund of finished goods The growth rate of occupied fund of finished goods The rate of occupied fund of finished goods
Thermal power
13.98
15.8
Accounts receivable net
2.94
14.62
Hydropower
74.70 69.06 1.96
5.30 48.12 0.5
958.15
202.36
The net growth rate of accounts receivable net
2.56
10.95
Turnover number of current assets (annual change)
2.31
1.16
Profit-making ability
Solvency
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Advocate business income Growth rate of advocate business income Advocate business cost Growth rate of advocate business cost Total profit Growth of total profit Ratio of sales Financial profit rate (annual change)
8082.21 12.18 7766.25 29.12 392.02 996.31 4.85 10.28
1131.47 24.80 602.87 27.77 268.64 23.86 23.74 25.25
Assets amounted Growth rate of assets amounted Total liability Growth rate of total liability Assets liabilities ratio Interest cover ratio
20233.82 13.98 15056.13 21.25 74.41 0.30
9022.46 15.8 5472.24 16.58 60.65 2.37
4
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6 Table 4 The development of relative industries. Relative industries
Development status
Equipment manufacturing
Over the last 6 decades, there are hundreds of companies specializing in main engine, auxiliary engine and electrified equipment, the annual capacity of host is over 5 million kW. Currently in the hydropower industry, there are 67 survey and design bodies with Class A qualification, and 294 with Grade-B certificates. In addition, there are 632 companies taking care of water conservancy project. Promoting the development of building materials, transportation, poverty alleviation, tourism, mining, machinery, mining, and other related industries.
Design and supervision
Other industries
Fig. 5. The distribution of small hydropower in China [11].
3. Problems of hydropower Although China hydropower has already achieved economic, social and environmental benefits, it still faces many problems such as immigration, ecological environment, cost effectiveness and imbalanced development. Especially small hydropower still has to deal with problems such as external benefit and tariffs fair, bull management, low concentration, disorder development and difficulty of financing. Imbalanced development. Due to the imbalanced development of regional economy, the regional development of China hydropower is also imbalanced. The development of hydropower is relative faster than that in eastern, but is rather slow in remote west area. According to statistics, in 2007, 92.3 percent of national new installed capacity is from 11 developed provinces including Fujian, and the small hydropower development is highly concentrated. At the same time, under the long-term influence of power monopoly, the areas supplied by small hydropower are gradually narrowing, and reduce its industry influence in some areas [11]. Fair mechanism and external benefit. Although hydropower industry is supported by the government, but due to long-term exposure to power monopoly, there is no external environment for fair competition. It has many difficulties in its development, such as feed-in difficulty, low price, and higher loan threshold. The existing VAT of 6% is not executed in some places, the state financial investment is small and the government guidance is not enough [2]. Meanwhile, for the current power tariff (hydropower tariff is lower than that of fossil fuels generation), energy conservation and emission reduction due to hydropower have no returns and the company has to pay several taxes, such as cultivated land occupied tax, land management fee, mineral resource, and mineral compensation [13]. Higher hydropower construction cost and financing difficulty. In terms of generation equipment, hydropower is about 40 percent higher than thermal power in unit cost. The initial investment is huge and the funds needed are mostly from
Table 3 Ecological protection division of small hydropower station replacing fuel [11]. Division
Planned installed capacity (10 thousand kW)
Population for fuel (10 thousand)
Southwest Northwest Northeast Yangtze river Huanghuihai areas Southeast coastal
1009.7 257.6 104.7 551.6 153.3 326.9
4445.6 1090.2 412 2336.8 777.9 1332
loans, therefore asset-liability ratio of hydropower enterprise, especially new hydropower, is almost beyond 70%. If the loan for hydropower construction is composed by commercial loan, hydropower enterprises have to pay high interest, which increases the reimbursement pressure for large hydropower enterprises [14]. In addition, the same national policy for other construction project (large and medium-sized project loan is no more than 12 years, oversized project is no more than 15 years). Thus due to large investment, the financing difficulty of hydropower project is increasing [13]. Finally, there are many risks during absorbing private capital for the small hydropower, such as water resource, input sales market, policy, and power estimating. Environmental problems. In the development of hydropower project, China needs to face two kinds of environmental problems: the natural ecological environment and social environment [15]. Although hydropower is clean renewable energy with no carbon emissions, it still affects ecological environment of reservoir and causes soil erosion and seismic. In addition, reservoir sluice inevitably causes cultural relics submerged, flood control, shipping, irrigation, tourism and other humanity and social influences. The immigration problem. With development of western areas, water and electricity transportation project, hydropower development may result in great immigration and therefore involve the adaptation of immigration culture, religion, ideas and living customs. Meanwhile, the compensation funds needed for building the reservoir is increasing (currently most hydropower projects already occupy 40%, some even more than 70%), and the secondary poverty caused by immigration becomes increasingly serious. According to statistics, in 2004, the net income of rural reservoir resettlement per capita is 1557 RMB, equal to 53% of the national average income. The restriction of immigration becomes the main factors of hydropower project implementation [16]. Bull management and low level of industry concentration. At present, China’s 45 thousand small hydropower stations belong to 20 thousand enterprises, and each enterprise has many shareholders, forming a complex property with multiple shareholders [11]. In addition, by the end of 2005, China had 1760 hydropower development enterprises. But from Fig. 6, we can see the income gap of top four enterprise sales is big, and their concentration is 18.72%. The other four have little gaps and their concentration is 26.45%. Obviously, China’s water and electricity industry concentration level is not high, which shows the great difficulties for the management of hydroelectric industry. Disordered development. Small hydropower resources are scarce and the entry barriers for hydropower are low. However, some developers seize resources from various channels and
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
Rural
City
Agricultural Farmer
5
Industry Market
Economic
Education Social-update
All-round well-off
Company
Fig. 6. Well-off road of reservoir resettlement in northwest area.
violate basic construction procedures, which lead to some illegal hydropower stations that influence public security and social stability. A few small hydropower projects don’t take into consideration of downstream production, living and ecological water requirement, excessive exploitation and utilization of hydropower resources and cause discontinuous flow, dehydration, influence of river ecological environment [2]. And due to the disordered development, good sites are becoming less, the cost in the future is higher and the developing difficulties will also increase. 4. Suggestions and prospects 4.1. Suggestions 4.1.1. Developing the distributed small hydropower China is the model of distributed small hydropower system, which has not only realized the synchronous development of large and small hydropower, but also solved problems of rural energy supply and ecological environment, and promoted the development of rural economy and society. At the same time, due to advantages of no emigration, appropriate scale, mature technology, low investment, short construction period, rapid development and so on, the small hydropower engineering has achieved good social, environmental and economic benefits. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable development of hydropower adapt to the economical development, China needs to develop small hydropower based on local conditions, and also realize the clean development mechanism [11]. 4.1.2. Establishing the fair trading mechanism In order to resolve the current power monopoly, China needs to establish a reform plan by introducing market competition, such as establishing competitive mechanisms in power generation, transmission and demand. In order to make hydropower all connect with grid, and realize the comprehensive benefit, China needs to accelerate the international cooperation in the field of hydropower, by which advanced technology and management experience can be
learnt, and standardize the actual amount of electricity and electricity tariffs gradually, to make the same tax with other power and implement the homogeneous price. 4.1.3. Optimizing financing mode Project financing, adopted to raise long-term capital for some large projects, is a kind of good means for raising hedge finance. In order to speed up the development of small hydropower, China needs to expand capital channels, and execute multi-channel, multi-level and multi-mode financing mode. As part of social welfare, investment should be invested by the state or government with corresponding subsidy. As self-raised part for enterprises, investment can also open new channels, such as establishing the hydroelectric industry funds, issuing long-term construction bonds and stocks, and raising hydropower construction funds from the society etc. [13]. At the same time, for the great economic benefits of hydropower enterprises, China needs to promote the development of larger companies, such as GD Power, Guangzhou Holding, Huaneng power international inc, etc [14]. 4.1.4. Carrying out the CDM project Due to low efficiency of Chinese energy utilization and high emission of carbon dioxide emissions, China needs CDM projects [17], which can not only broaden the financing channels and bring advanced technology for China’s hydropower companies, but can also encourage hydropower companies to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. It is expected to realize the harmonious and sustainable development between hydropower and economy, environment as well as society. 4.1.5. Developing ecological emigration and poverty alleviation immigrants Immigration process is both an urbanization process and an industrialization process. In the comprehensive development of hydropower, China needs to combine the reservoir resettlement, the ecological emigration and anti-poverty immigration (Fig. 7). Based on right protection, China should make full use of economic
SHPF
Ownershi
Country
Managerial
Right of use
Project entity
Farmer
Confirm representative funders Responsible for the stateowned assets and realize goal
Construction and management of hydropower station
Fig. 7. Management system of SHPF [29].
Right and Responsibility
6
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
operation lever, actively expand investment source of the construction fund, and provide more employment opportunities, which will promote local economy. Meanwhile, China also should choose the local place with the permission of space condition and land resources, introduce the advanced planning idea, and build an ecological city, which will realize the harmony between man and nature. 4.1.6. Developing SHPF SHPF has explored a new path between small hydropower development and ecological construction. Perfection of the third power management system division (Fig. 7) will strictly restrict various short-term behaviors, which will safeguard the benefits of hydropower projects, and ensure the sustainable development of China’s hydropower industry.
4.2. Prospects China has abundant water resources, but has not been fully exploited in the past (utilization ratio of water resources is only 20%, and the ratio in western region is rather lower) [14]. Although the technology of wind, solar, biological and other new energies develops rapidly, the proportion of hydropower resources in renewable energies may even decrease, as the main energy, especially based on the environmental requirements, its absolute advantages are still not shakable. The potential of China’s hydropower market is tremendous. With comprehensive development of hydropower as well as the realization of goals by 2020, installed capacity of hydropower will reach 300 million kW (including large and medium-sized hydropower of 225 million kW as well as small hydropower 75 million kW) .In the following 20 years, the focus of hydropower construction is the Chinsha River, Yalong River, Dadu River, Lancing river, Yellow River and Nu River. At the same time, in resource-rich areas, China need to construct rural electrification counties and implement "the small hydropower replacing fuel" projects, which will speed up the development of small hydropower. In addition, hydropower development needs to gradually solve problems such as ecological compensation, regional balance, reservoir construction and corresponding watershed ecosystem as well as secondary environment. Hydropower should transform from pure engineering hydropower to ecological hydropower and from pure technical engineering to social engineering. We should attach more importance to the emigrants’ interests and ecological environment protection, combine utilization of water resources and hydropower development with ecological engineering construction, and guarantee the sustainable development of hydropower and economy, society as well as environment.
Acknowledgment This paper is supported by the Humanities and Social Science Foundation by the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.11YJA790218) and the Project which Jointed between Education Minister and Beijing Education Committee.
References [1] Zhou S, Zhang XL, Liu JH. The trend of small hydropower development in China. Jorurnal of Renewable Energy 2009;34:1078e83. [2] Tian ZX. The small hydropower and the big strategy. China Hydropower and Electrification 2010;1:4e7. [3] China industry annual report of the renewable energy. China Economic Information Network; 2009. [4] Energy Research Institute of State Grid. China’s energy need and supply and the analysis of power generation development analysis. Beijing: China Electric Power Press; 2010. [5] Energy Research Institute of State Grid. China’s power supply and demand analysis. Beijing: China Electric Power Press; 2010. [6] Luo ZM, Zhou XZ. An analysis on hydropower industry in western Sichuan. Water Power 2006;3:130e2. [7] Hu HF, Wang GC. Talking about the development of hydropower and ecologic restoration projects [Hydropower development and green future] Xinhua Forum Proceedings. China Water Power Press; 2007. [8] Zhou DB. Achievements and prospect for the hydropower cause for 30 years reform and open to the outside in China. Water Power 2008;12:1e7. [9] Qiu ZB, Huang G, Huang X. On the current situation of China’s small hydropower development and ecological environment. Technology Orienation; 2010. [10] Min Z, Wang YF, An YT, Luo HB. Current situation of China’s small hydropower generation and fuel prospects. Water Resources Planning and Design 2010;2: 15e7. [11] Rural hydropower and electrification Development.60 years of small hydropower in China [M]. China Water Power Press; 2009. [12] Tang XB, Zhang LJ, Wang J, Zhang WP. Status analysis and credit proposal of China’s small hydropower. Prospective 2009;2:56e8. [13] Liu CG. Problems and countermeasures in China hydropower development. Beijing: NorthChina Electric Power University; 2001. [14] Ying Guo. An analysis on opportunities, risk and trend of China’s hydropower industry development. Journal of Wuhan Commercial Service College 2006;3: 32e5. [15] Li YZ. Water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction caused Environmental problems and the remedial measures in the construction process of Hydropower. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology 2010; 13. [16] Zheng HJ. Environmental assessment and immigration of hydropower projects. Journal of Popular Science 2005;75. [17] Chen X, Zhang RM. The development of hydropower CDM project. China WaterPower Press; 2008.
Further reading [18] Zhang GB. China will devote to achieve emission reduction goals, http:// www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId1/423879; 2010. [19] National Development and Reform Commission. Respond to climate change policy and action in China. Annual report in 2010, http://www.ccchina.gov. cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId1/423879; 2010. [20] Hu JT. Government work report in the seventeenth national congress of the communist party of China. Beijing: People’s Publishing House; 2007. [21] Wang SF. Hydropower is not "snubbed" and the main project in "The 12th five-year plan" main projects, vol. 10. China Business News, http://news.qq. com/a/20101029/000411.htm; 2010. [22] Zhang BG. The report on China’s energy development. Beijing: The Publishing House Of Economic Science; 2009. [23] Zhang XJ, Zhang GK. Challenges and strategies for the development and utilization of China’s water resources. Jilin Water Resources 2009;2:32e3. [24] Zhou ZL, Wang HR, Zhou X. The benefit and influence on the development of China’s hydropower. Sichuan Water Power 2010;4:63e6. [25] Zhou DD. China will soon become the world biggest energy consumer. 6, http://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/20100619/12408140208.shtml; 2010. [26] Jia JS, Ma J, Zhang ZH. Vigorously develop hydropower must be in response to climate change. China Three Gorges View Point; 2010:49e53. [27] Xin W. China’s small hydropower capacity reached 55.12 million kW. Guangxi Electric Power Industry Hotspot 2010;4. [28] Hu J, Deng YJ. The integrated development of water resources and ecological immigration -take northwestern China for example [Hydropower development and green future] Xinhua Forum Proceedings. China Water Power Press; 2007. [29] Li GZ, Li XY. Discussing the barriers on entry of hydropower industry discussed [Hydropower development and green future] Xinhua Forum Proceedings. China Water Power Press; 2007.
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Review
A critical-analysis on the development of China hydropower Zhao Xingang, Liu Lu *, Liu Xiaomeng, Wang Jieyu, Liu Pingkuo School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beinong Road No. 2, Beijing 102206, China
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 9 March 2011 Accepted 10 January 2012 Available online 22 February 2012
With the increasing scarcity of fossil fuel resources, the demand for greenhouse gas reduction and environmental protection all over the world, developing hydropower becomes one of the most important energy strategies. This paper introduces the current development situation of hydropower in China from following aspects: economy, environment and society as well as assesses their existing problems, and then demonstrates that China must accelerate the development of small hydropower and CDM projects in order to realize the sustainable development of economy, environment and society. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hydropower Small hydropower Sustainable development
1. Introduction Chinese government has paid increasing attention to economic, environmental and social benefits of energy’s sustainable development. As specified in the 11th Five-Year Plan for Development of Renewable Energy, consumption of non-fossil fuel will account for 15% of the primary energy consumption by 2020, and carbon emissions will reduce by 40%e45% by 2020 compared with 2005. Hydropower, due to its huge reserves (Fig. 1) as well as its economic, environmental and social benefits, will orient the development of renewable energy during the 12th Five-Year Plan. However, the potential problems such as immigration, environment and social cost constrain the sustainable development of hydropower, and how to coordinate the development of hydropower and those problems is crucial to the whole economic and social development. This paper described the current situation of hydropower development from the following three aspects: economy, environment and society, and analyzes their existing problems, then points out some relevant suggestions and prospects. 2. The current situation of hydropower 2.1. Overall situation of small hydropower Hydropower, due to its huge reserves (Fig. 1) as well as its economic, environmental and social benefit, will orient the development of renewable energy during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ86 15210725703. E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Lu). 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.005
2.1.1. Economic benefit As shown in Fig. 1, the installed capacity of hydropower and GDP increased significantly. The installed capacity is 19679 million kW and GDP is 335,353 billion RMB by 2009. The increasing trend of installed capacity is similar to that of economy, except 2004, since the long construction time of hydropower makes its installed capacity increase slowly compared to the increase speed of China’s GDP. In addition, the 12th Five-Year Plan specifies that the investment of hydropower will be 130 million and the total installed capacity will reach 300 million kW by 2020, which implies that hydropower is crucial for the development of renewable energy in China before 2030. Hydropower distribution and regional economic development. Water resource concentrates in the central and southern China and the installed capacities of hydropower in the two areas respectively account for 40.7% and 30.7%. The other area’s proportions can be seen from Fig. 3. China’s economy developed well in eastern, northern and central China, with GDP of 25.9%, 21.4%, 20.3% respectively. The economy of the southern regions is also developing rapidly, which is account for 16.1%, but the economy of northwest, northeast develops relatively slow, account for 5.2% and 8.4% respectively (Figs. 2 and 3). The distribution of hydropower has a big coupling with regional economic growth in China. For instance, southern and eastern China developed economy well with little primary energy but rich hydropower resources, which implies hydropower is the motive force for the economic development. Operation efficiency and additional economic benefits. The hydropower enterprises have advantages in growth ability, operation ability, profit-making ability, compared with thermal
2
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
Fig. 1. The installed capacity and GDP and their respective rate in China. Fig. 3. Regional GDP rate in 2009 [5].
power. For instance, the total profit is 268.64 billion (Tables 1 and 2), which is higher than that of in the firepower enterprise. The hydropower enterprise doesn’t need to pay fuel costs, and thus obtain the significant economic benefits. Moreover, hydropower has high net asset growth rate, which are good for the rapid development of renewable energy. Hydropower projects can also stimulate the development of local economy and improve local people’s living standard. 2.1.2. Environmental benefits According to statistics, SO2 emissions are about 20 million tons per year, 50% of which are from thermal power [6]. The construction of three gorges project reduces the coal’s consumption over 30 million tons as well asSO20.5 million tons. Fig. 4 shows the energy returns rate of various forms. Obviously, hydropower has environmental benefits for energy conservation and emission reduction. Hydropower also has a positive effect on river ecosystem [7]. Firstly, it’s helpful for the rational allocation of water resources and improving rivers’ adjustment ability, which makes rivers motive. According to statistics, there is 300 million tons of sediment rushed into the sea during the five water-sediment regulations in 2002e2005, which improves the minimum flow capacity from 1800 m3 per second to 3500 m3 per second. Secondly, it improves rivers’ regulation ability, which will reduce floodwater damage. Thirdly, it will help to prevent the discontinuous flow and improve ecosystem. 2.1.3. Social benefits Hydropower project as a practical activity has features such as flood control, irrigation, shipping as well as supply water for people’s daily life and social life. Take the three gorges for example. The flood control system is in shape, which has improved the flood control standards from ten years in the past to hundred years now.
Fig. 2. Regional distribution of China hydropower in 2009 [4].
In addition, shipping conditions has improved greatly, the freight volume breakthroughs 50 million tons in 2006, which has become the golden waterway [8]. 2.2. Current situation of small hydropower In China, the small hydropower, also called the rural hydropower, is a hydropower station with installed capacity less than 5 million kW. The small hydropower has achieved social, environmental and economic benefits for the following advantages: no necessary emigration, appropriate scale, economical investment, short construction period and rapid recovery. Therefore, in order to ensure the development of hydropower adapt to the economy’s development, China needs to develop small hydropower based on local conditions. 2.2.1. Economic benefit The installed capacity of small hydropower and economic growth. The installed capacity of China’s small hydropower increases 2e3 million kW annually. By the end of 2009, there were 45,000 hydropower stations with total installed capacity of nearly 55.12 million kW and annual generating capacity reached nearly 160 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of the whole respectively. China’s small hydropower is growing mature. According to statistics, the construction scale is almost 20 million kW and the hydropower potential is 87 M kW, which occupies 40% of the world’s total [9] and is No. 1 in the world. The economically potential capacity is about 120 million kW and undeveloped resources is nearly 90 million kW [10], which implies that small hydropower has a bright future (The total demand for the small hydropower is predicted to be 575.2 kWh by 2020 [1]) The distribution of small hydropower and regional economy’s growth. The small hydropower mainly distributes in southwest China, which accounts for 44.3% of the whole country’s hydropower potential. In addition, northwest, central and eastern China account for 13.2%, 21.1%, and 13.2% respectively (Fig. 5). With contrast to Fig. 4, the distributed small hydropower pattern can not only solve the regional problems and relieve the pressure of power grid, but also promote the rapid development of China’s economy. In addition, the small hydropower mainly concentrates in the remote areas which are far from power grid (distributed in1700 mountain areas, and nearly 1/2 areas, 1/3 counties, and 1/4 populations are relying on the small hydropower [11]) and has greatly promoted the development of rural economy. According to statistics, there are 653 counties that have realized primary electrification, especially Hunan province the financial income increased from
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
3
Table 1 The summary of China hydropower resources [3]. Serial number
Project
1
Theory reserves
2
Technology exploited hydropower Economical exploited hydropower Exploited
3
4
Annual generation Average power Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation Hydropower station Installed capacity Annual generation
Unit
Value
Billion-kWh Million-kW Station Million-kW Billion-kWh Station Million-kW Billion-kWh Station Million-kW Billion-kWh
60829 69440 13286 þ 28/2 54164 24740 11653 þ 27/2 40179.5 17534 6053 þ 4/2 13098.19 5258.85
Fig. 4. The energy returns rate of various forms.
2.2.2. Environmental benefits Firstly, the development of small hydropower reduces the environmental pollution. The electricity from small hydropower is about 150 billion kWh, which saves nearly 78 million tons of coal, about 1.7 million tons of soot, 1.8 million tons of sulfur dioxide, 170 million tons of carbon monoxide, and0.64 million tons of chlorinated nitrogen. Secondly, governments are vigorously promoting small hydropower station for wood-fired power plants, which reduces consumption of timber. At present, the small hydropower generation have made it possible for approximately 20 million households to use electricity for cooking, which reduces deforestation about 1333 km2annually, and saves timber of about 9 million m3 [12].
3.76 billion Yuan to 5.996 billion Yuan during the 11th Fiveyear Plan [11]. Economic benefit of small hydropower station. As shown in Fig. 2, planned installation projects are located in western regions, which accounts for 50%. In addition, the project of small hydropower replacing woody fuel (SHPF) not only improves rural employment, but also releases the farmers’ burden. According to statistics, nearly 8000 farmers benefited from the decreasing of lighting tariff from 0.5 Yuan per kWh to 0.3 RMB per kWh, which decreased farmers’ burden of more than 600,000 thousand RMB [11]. Operation efficiency and additional economic benefits of small hydropower. Small hydropower can bring direct benefits for local government and people. According to statistics, the assets of small hydropower amounted to over 100 billion RMB, the business income is more than 40 billion RMB and net profit is more than 7 billion RMB. At present, there are more than 70 transnational small hydropower companies and 9 companies of them became listed companies. In particular, Sichuan and Guangxi have established small-hydropower-centered group companies at the provincial level. Small hydropower also can partially replace thermal power, which benefits the whole society with resource conservation (the cost of hydropower is definitely lower than that of thermal power), and drive the development of relevant industries (Tables 3 and 4).
2.2.3. Social benefits Firstly, the small hydropower improves farmers’ living conditions due to its low cost for lighting. Secondly, it promotes the development of rural economy for its cheap electricity. Thirdly, it’s useful for irrigation, drought and flood control. At present, China has harnessed thousands of medium and small rivers, which increase capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, irrigates area of 16,866 km2, and solves water problems for 64.25 million people and 47.45 million livestock. Meanwhile, the development of small hydropower in the mountainous areas mainly realizes multiple social benefits, for instance, during the snow disaster in 2008, there were 200 counties and 2000 towns relying on small hydropower [12].
Table 2 The related indexes of Chinese thermal power and hydropower in 2008 [3]. Growth ability
Operation capacity
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Index
Growth rate of industrial output Growth rate of advocate business income (%) Increases or decreases of total profits than that in last year (Billion) The growth rate of total assets (%) The growth rate of net assets (%)
10.04 12.18 996.31
23.5 24.8 23.86
Occupied fund of finished goods The growth rate of occupied fund of finished goods The rate of occupied fund of finished goods
Thermal power
13.98
15.8
Accounts receivable net
2.94
14.62
Hydropower
74.70 69.06 1.96
5.30 48.12 0.5
958.15
202.36
The net growth rate of accounts receivable net
2.56
10.95
Turnover number of current assets (annual change)
2.31
1.16
Profit-making ability
Solvency
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Index
Thermal power
Hydropower
Advocate business income Growth rate of advocate business income Advocate business cost Growth rate of advocate business cost Total profit Growth of total profit Ratio of sales Financial profit rate (annual change)
8082.21 12.18 7766.25 29.12 392.02 996.31 4.85 10.28
1131.47 24.80 602.87 27.77 268.64 23.86 23.74 25.25
Assets amounted Growth rate of assets amounted Total liability Growth rate of total liability Assets liabilities ratio Interest cover ratio
20233.82 13.98 15056.13 21.25 74.41 0.30
9022.46 15.8 5472.24 16.58 60.65 2.37
4
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6 Table 4 The development of relative industries. Relative industries
Development status
Equipment manufacturing
Over the last 6 decades, there are hundreds of companies specializing in main engine, auxiliary engine and electrified equipment, the annual capacity of host is over 5 million kW. Currently in the hydropower industry, there are 67 survey and design bodies with Class A qualification, and 294 with Grade-B certificates. In addition, there are 632 companies taking care of water conservancy project. Promoting the development of building materials, transportation, poverty alleviation, tourism, mining, machinery, mining, and other related industries.
Design and supervision
Other industries
Fig. 5. The distribution of small hydropower in China [11].
3. Problems of hydropower Although China hydropower has already achieved economic, social and environmental benefits, it still faces many problems such as immigration, ecological environment, cost effectiveness and imbalanced development. Especially small hydropower still has to deal with problems such as external benefit and tariffs fair, bull management, low concentration, disorder development and difficulty of financing. Imbalanced development. Due to the imbalanced development of regional economy, the regional development of China hydropower is also imbalanced. The development of hydropower is relative faster than that in eastern, but is rather slow in remote west area. According to statistics, in 2007, 92.3 percent of national new installed capacity is from 11 developed provinces including Fujian, and the small hydropower development is highly concentrated. At the same time, under the long-term influence of power monopoly, the areas supplied by small hydropower are gradually narrowing, and reduce its industry influence in some areas [11]. Fair mechanism and external benefit. Although hydropower industry is supported by the government, but due to long-term exposure to power monopoly, there is no external environment for fair competition. It has many difficulties in its development, such as feed-in difficulty, low price, and higher loan threshold. The existing VAT of 6% is not executed in some places, the state financial investment is small and the government guidance is not enough [2]. Meanwhile, for the current power tariff (hydropower tariff is lower than that of fossil fuels generation), energy conservation and emission reduction due to hydropower have no returns and the company has to pay several taxes, such as cultivated land occupied tax, land management fee, mineral resource, and mineral compensation [13]. Higher hydropower construction cost and financing difficulty. In terms of generation equipment, hydropower is about 40 percent higher than thermal power in unit cost. The initial investment is huge and the funds needed are mostly from
Table 3 Ecological protection division of small hydropower station replacing fuel [11]. Division
Planned installed capacity (10 thousand kW)
Population for fuel (10 thousand)
Southwest Northwest Northeast Yangtze river Huanghuihai areas Southeast coastal
1009.7 257.6 104.7 551.6 153.3 326.9
4445.6 1090.2 412 2336.8 777.9 1332
loans, therefore asset-liability ratio of hydropower enterprise, especially new hydropower, is almost beyond 70%. If the loan for hydropower construction is composed by commercial loan, hydropower enterprises have to pay high interest, which increases the reimbursement pressure for large hydropower enterprises [14]. In addition, the same national policy for other construction project (large and medium-sized project loan is no more than 12 years, oversized project is no more than 15 years). Thus due to large investment, the financing difficulty of hydropower project is increasing [13]. Finally, there are many risks during absorbing private capital for the small hydropower, such as water resource, input sales market, policy, and power estimating. Environmental problems. In the development of hydropower project, China needs to face two kinds of environmental problems: the natural ecological environment and social environment [15]. Although hydropower is clean renewable energy with no carbon emissions, it still affects ecological environment of reservoir and causes soil erosion and seismic. In addition, reservoir sluice inevitably causes cultural relics submerged, flood control, shipping, irrigation, tourism and other humanity and social influences. The immigration problem. With development of western areas, water and electricity transportation project, hydropower development may result in great immigration and therefore involve the adaptation of immigration culture, religion, ideas and living customs. Meanwhile, the compensation funds needed for building the reservoir is increasing (currently most hydropower projects already occupy 40%, some even more than 70%), and the secondary poverty caused by immigration becomes increasingly serious. According to statistics, in 2004, the net income of rural reservoir resettlement per capita is 1557 RMB, equal to 53% of the national average income. The restriction of immigration becomes the main factors of hydropower project implementation [16]. Bull management and low level of industry concentration. At present, China’s 45 thousand small hydropower stations belong to 20 thousand enterprises, and each enterprise has many shareholders, forming a complex property with multiple shareholders [11]. In addition, by the end of 2005, China had 1760 hydropower development enterprises. But from Fig. 6, we can see the income gap of top four enterprise sales is big, and their concentration is 18.72%. The other four have little gaps and their concentration is 26.45%. Obviously, China’s water and electricity industry concentration level is not high, which shows the great difficulties for the management of hydroelectric industry. Disordered development. Small hydropower resources are scarce and the entry barriers for hydropower are low. However, some developers seize resources from various channels and
Z. Xingang et al. / Renewable Energy 44 (2012) 1e6
Rural
City
Agricultural Farmer
5
Industry Market
Economic
Education Social-update
All-round well-off
Company
Fig. 6. Well-off road of reservoir resettlement in northwest area.
violate basic construction procedures, which lead to some illegal hydropower stations that influence public security and social stability. A few small hydropower projects don’t take into consideration of downstream production, living and ecological water requirement, excessive exploitation and utilization of hydropower resources and cause discontinuous flow, dehydration, influence of river ecological environment [2]. And due to the disordered development, good sites are becoming less, the cost in the future is higher and the developing difficulties will also increase. 4. Suggestions and prospects 4.1. Suggestions 4.1.1. Developing the distributed small hydropower China is the model of distributed small hydropower system, which has not only realized the synchronous development of large and small hydropower, but also solved problems of rural energy supply and ecological environment, and promoted the development of rural economy and society. At the same time, due to advantages of no emigration, appropriate scale, mature technology, low investment, short construction period, rapid development and so on, the small hydropower engineering has achieved good social, environmental and economic benefits. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable development of hydropower adapt to the economical development, China needs to develop small hydropower based on local conditions, and also realize the clean development mechanism [11]. 4.1.2. Establishing the fair trading mechanism In order to resolve the current power monopoly, China needs to establish a reform plan by introducing market competition, such as establishing competitive mechanisms in power generation, transmission and demand. In order to make hydropower all connect with grid, and realize the comprehensive benefit, China needs to accelerate the international cooperation in the field of hydropower, by which advanced technology and management experience can be
learnt, and standardize the actual amount of electricity and electricity tariffs gradually, to make the same tax with other power and implement the homogeneous price. 4.1.3. Optimizing financing mode Project financing, adopted to raise long-term capital for some large projects, is a kind of good means for raising hedge finance. In order to speed up the development of small hydropower, China needs to expand capital channels, and execute multi-channel, multi-level and multi-mode financing mode. As part of social welfare, investment should be invested by the state or government with corresponding subsidy. As self-raised part for enterprises, investment can also open new channels, such as establishing the hydroelectric industry funds, issuing long-term construction bonds and stocks, and raising hydropower construction funds from the society etc. [13]. At the same time, for the great economic benefits of hydropower enterprises, China needs to promote the development of larger companies, such as GD Power, Guangzhou Holding, Huaneng power international inc, etc [14]. 4.1.4. Carrying out the CDM project Due to low efficiency of Chinese energy utilization and high emission of carbon dioxide emissions, China needs CDM projects [17], which can not only broaden the financing channels and bring advanced technology for China’s hydropower companies, but can also encourage hydropower companies to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. It is expected to realize the harmonious and sustainable development between hydropower and economy, environment as well as society. 4.1.5. Developing ecological emigration and poverty alleviation immigrants Immigration process is both an urbanization process and an industrialization process. In the comprehensive development of hydropower, China needs to combine the reservoir resettlement, the ecological emigration and anti-poverty immigration (Fig. 7). Based on right protection, China should make full use of economic
SHPF
Ownershi
Country
Managerial
Right of use
Project entity
Farmer
Confirm representative funders Responsible for the stateowned assets and realize goal
Construction and management of hydropower station
Fig. 7. Management system of SHPF [29].
Right and Responsibility
6
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operation lever, actively expand investment source of the construction fund, and provide more employment opportunities, which will promote local economy. Meanwhile, China also should choose the local place with the permission of space condition and land resources, introduce the advanced planning idea, and build an ecological city, which will realize the harmony between man and nature. 4.1.6. Developing SHPF SHPF has explored a new path between small hydropower development and ecological construction. Perfection of the third power management system division (Fig. 7) will strictly restrict various short-term behaviors, which will safeguard the benefits of hydropower projects, and ensure the sustainable development of China’s hydropower industry.
4.2. Prospects China has abundant water resources, but has not been fully exploited in the past (utilization ratio of water resources is only 20%, and the ratio in western region is rather lower) [14]. Although the technology of wind, solar, biological and other new energies develops rapidly, the proportion of hydropower resources in renewable energies may even decrease, as the main energy, especially based on the environmental requirements, its absolute advantages are still not shakable. The potential of China’s hydropower market is tremendous. With comprehensive development of hydropower as well as the realization of goals by 2020, installed capacity of hydropower will reach 300 million kW (including large and medium-sized hydropower of 225 million kW as well as small hydropower 75 million kW) .In the following 20 years, the focus of hydropower construction is the Chinsha River, Yalong River, Dadu River, Lancing river, Yellow River and Nu River. At the same time, in resource-rich areas, China need to construct rural electrification counties and implement "the small hydropower replacing fuel" projects, which will speed up the development of small hydropower. In addition, hydropower development needs to gradually solve problems such as ecological compensation, regional balance, reservoir construction and corresponding watershed ecosystem as well as secondary environment. Hydropower should transform from pure engineering hydropower to ecological hydropower and from pure technical engineering to social engineering. We should attach more importance to the emigrants’ interests and ecological environment protection, combine utilization of water resources and hydropower development with ecological engineering construction, and guarantee the sustainable development of hydropower and economy, society as well as environment.
Acknowledgment This paper is supported by the Humanities and Social Science Foundation by the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.11YJA790218) and the Project which Jointed between Education Minister and Beijing Education Committee.
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Further reading [18] Zhang GB. China will devote to achieve emission reduction goals, http:// www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId1/423879; 2010. [19] National Development and Reform Commission. Respond to climate change policy and action in China. Annual report in 2010, http://www.ccchina.gov. cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId1/423879; 2010. [20] Hu JT. Government work report in the seventeenth national congress of the communist party of China. Beijing: People’s Publishing House; 2007. [21] Wang SF. Hydropower is not "snubbed" and the main project in "The 12th five-year plan" main projects, vol. 10. China Business News, http://news.qq. com/a/20101029/000411.htm; 2010. [22] Zhang BG. The report on China’s energy development. Beijing: The Publishing House Of Economic Science; 2009. [23] Zhang XJ, Zhang GK. Challenges and strategies for the development and utilization of China’s water resources. Jilin Water Resources 2009;2:32e3. [24] Zhou ZL, Wang HR, Zhou X. The benefit and influence on the development of China’s hydropower. Sichuan Water Power 2010;4:63e6. [25] Zhou DD. China will soon become the world biggest energy consumer. 6, http://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/20100619/12408140208.shtml; 2010. [26] Jia JS, Ma J, Zhang ZH. Vigorously develop hydropower must be in response to climate change. China Three Gorges View Point; 2010:49e53. [27] Xin W. China’s small hydropower capacity reached 55.12 million kW. Guangxi Electric Power Industry Hotspot 2010;4. [28] Hu J, Deng YJ. The integrated development of water resources and ecological immigration -take northwestern China for example [Hydropower development and green future] Xinhua Forum Proceedings. China Water Power Press; 2007. [29] Li GZ, Li XY. Discussing the barriers on entry of hydropower industry discussed [Hydropower development and green future] Xinhua Forum Proceedings. China Water Power Press; 2007.