Adaptive capacity and coping strategies of small-scale coastal fisheries to declining fish catches: Insights from Tanzanian communities

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environmental Science and Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci

Adaptive capacity and coping strategies of small-scale coastal fisheries to declining fish catches: Insights from Tanzanian communities

T

Mathew O. Silasa,b, Said S. Mgelekaa,b, Patrick Poltec, Mattias Sköldd, Regina Lindborge, Maricela de la Torre-Castroe, Martin Gullströma,f,* a

Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania c Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Thünen-Institute, Rostock, Germany d Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden e Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden f Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Kristineberg, Fiskebäckskil, Sweden b

A R T I C LE I N FO

A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Small-scale fisheries Fish landings Gear choice Coastal communities Climate change Adaptation

Small-scale fishing communities are expected to adapt to fish catch fluctuations linked to global environmental change. Notwithstanding, impacts from severe climate events and overexploitation of fisheries resources can compromise functions and resilience of ecosystems and associated species, and thereby jeopardize long-term population trend stability and fisheries productivity. To date, most assessments and vulnerability studies of fisheries-dependent populaces have focused on global, regional and national levels, while studies at village and community levels, where adaptive planning in the context of climate- and environmental changes is important, are less common. Based on data from official fishery records over a three-decadal period (1984–2016) and recent interviews with artisanal fishermen (319 fishers from eight communities) along the Tanzanian coast, we assessed small-scale fisheries with regard to (i) long-term trends in fishery landings, (ii) long-term alterations in fishing gear use, and (iii) fishers’ perceptions on how they have been coping and adapting to fluctuating fish landings. We further investigated (iv) the adaptive capacity of a wide range of coastal villages by assessing the fishers’ responses to an anticipated future scenario of a major (50 %) decline in landings from the current fisheries catch levels. The long-term trend records of fish landings showed a remarkable ∼50 % reduction in terms of both catch per vessel and catch per fisher from 1984 to 2016. According to the interviews, the majority of fishers (75 %) have changed fishing grounds from nearshore to offshore areas during the last decade, owing to a general perception that nearshore areas have suffered major reduction in fish stocks (due to overfishing and environmental changes related to extreme climate- or weather events), while offshore areas were considered still productive. The change in location of fishing grounds is probably a result of the clear switch in major gear type utilization from beach seine to ring net that occurred over the last decades. With a further progressive decline in fishery catches to a predictive level of 50 % of the current catch level, there is a general perception that artisanal fishers will continue fishing because alternative livelihoods (like crop farming, which employs more than 65 % of the population) have suffered similar negative impact. These findings highlight the need for building adaptive capacity in local coastal communities to develop alternative coping strategies for the impacts of climate- and environmental changes.

1. Introduction

the majority of our planet is today experiencing cumulative human impacts (Halpern et al., 2015), the consequences for sustainable livelihood (through sectors like agriculture, fishing and other livelihood activities) and security of resources will progressively intensify (Adger et al., 2003; Quentin Grafton, 2010). Consequently, bouncing back from such impacts on natural resources and societal systems would require

Poor and susceptible societies are frequently affected by anthropogenic activities and extreme weather events (e.g. flooding and drought). Given that the world’s climate is projected to change at a rate that is unmatched in recent human history (Henson et al., 2017) and

⁎

Corresponding author at: Department of Biological and Environmental Scicences, University of Gothenburg, Kristineberg, Fiskebäckskil, Sweden. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Gullström).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.012 Received 24 July 2019; Received in revised form 10 March 2020; Accepted 11 March 2020 1462-9011/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

2015). Here, we examined long-term trends in fish landings and catches by gear type using official fishery records over a three-decadal period (1984–2016) covering the Tanzanian coastal zone. Through interviews with artisanal fishermen, we also examined their perceptions and responses to data on fluctuating fish landings during the past decade (2006–2016). We further evaluated how each coastal community’s adaptive decisions differ in response to their adaptive levels. Our specific objectives were to investigate: (i) how fish landings have varied during the past three decades, (ii) whether there has been a change in the use of fishing gear types during the past three decades, (iii) fishers’ perceptions of fish catch fluctuations, and whether and how fishing communities have been coping and adapting to potential changes in fish landings during the past decade, and (iv) the adaptive capacity of coastal fishing villages in different regions to a future scenario of a 50 % decline in landings from the current fisheries catch levels.

strong, divergent recovery efforts that are determined by the communities’ adaptive capability (Seara et al., 2016). Knowing and enhancing the adaptive capacity at community level is therefore essential in shaping community resilience, enabling adaptation to fluctuations linked to human pressure and climate variability and change (Seara et al., 2016). Fish stocks are known to fluctuate naturally due to temporal environmental variability (Laevastu and Marasco, 1982). However, about two thirds of the global fish stocks were recently estimated as fished within their biological sustainable levels, while about one third were overfished (FAO, 2016). With today’s rapidly changing environment and widespread degradation of fisheries resources, even more fish stocks are expected to be negatively affected, with strong consequences for communities that are tightly connected to them for food and livelihood. The small-scale fishing sector involves more than 200 million people in developing countries (Daw et al., 2009), and over 30 million people rely on this sector directly or indirectly for goods and services in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region (McClanahan et al., 2008; Rocliffe and Harris, 2014; Nordlund et al., 2018). Many coastal societies of developing countries are today, however, experiencing extreme fluctuations in fish landings as a consequence of climate change and global anthropogenic pressures from e.g. overfishing, loss of habitats and use of destructive fishing methods (Brander, 2007; Cinner, 2009; Jackson et al., 2001). Landings from the small-scale fisheries (SSFs) naturally vary due to variability in precipitation, runoff and sea surface temperature in different parts of the WIO region (Blythe et al., 2013; de la Torre-Castro et al., 2014; Gammelsrød, 1992) and elsewhere (Auber et al., 2017; Checkley et al. (2017); Meynecke et al., 2006). Therefore, the ongoing rapid emergence of climate- and environmental changes (Adger et al., 2003; Henson et al., 2017) is expected to impact fisheries landings and thus millions of people depending on them for income and food security. In the past, fishing communities were considered adaptive to fluctuating catch trends (Blythe et al., 2013; Cinner et al., 2011; Conway et al., 2005; Torres-Guevara et al., 2016; Tuda and Wolff, 2015). With the current overexploitation of fishery resources and projected future variability in fish catches that may intensify with a changing environment, it is not clear how and to what degree smallscale fishing communities (who make up more than 90 % of the world’s fishers and fish traders; FAO, 2016) would cope with and adapt to such impacts. The circumstances for fishing communities can be compared with the agricultural societies that employ more than 65 % of the population, where the decrease in crop production due to the effects of climate change (Lesk et al., 2016) is dealt with by shifting planting dates in synchrony with changing seasons (Nouri et al., 2017), intensifying the use of irrigation schemes (Levira, 2009), planting drought-resistant crops and, in some cases, migration of farmers because of food insecurity (Afifi et al., 2014). In the WIO region, such adaptive responses shown among agricultural societies are underrepresented in the fisheries sector, especially with regard to the fluctuating fish landings. In Tanzania, the SSFs contribute to about 95 % of the fishery sector, while being geographically limited to shallow coastal areas (Ngusaru et al., 2001; Semba et al., 2016). Constriction of the shoreline, lack of modern gear for offshore fishing (Jiddawi and Öhman, 2002; Semba et al., 2016), and communities’ reliance on aquatic resources (Béné et al., 2007; Cinner et al., 2012; Johnson, 2012) escalate communities’ vulnerability to a changing climate. Expected impacts of climate change and human pressure on coastal fisheries in susceptible developing societies like Tanzania thus clearly require an increased ability of communities to foresee and deal with resulting consequences (Adger and Vincent, 2005; Cinner et al., 2018; Gallopín, 2006). To date, most assessments and vulnerability studies have focused on global, regional and national levels (Allison et al., 2009; Cinner et al., 2013; Islam et al., 2014; Maina et al., 2015; Watson et al., 2013a), while at village and community levels, where adaptive planning is also important, studies are less common (but see e.g. McClanahan et al., 2008; Cinner et al.,

2. Methodology 2.1. Study area We used long-term fish landing data records derived from multiple (> 400) landing sites in five coastal regions of Tanzania, in combination with interview data collected from eight landing sites spread across the country (Fig. 1). Despite the long coastline, most fishing activities are restricted to a number of geographically limited areas (approximately 30,000 km²) due to a narrow continental shelf at a depth of less than 200 m (Francis and Bryceson, 2000; Semba et al., 2016). Mangroves, seagrass meadows and coral reefs are vital coastal habitats in the region, on which the majority of the coastal communities depend for food and income (de la Torre-Castro et al., 2014; Kimirei et al., 2016). According to the most recent demographic assessment (NBS, 2012), about 20 % of the population (equalling about 11 million persons) in Tanzania live within the coastal zone and the number of people increases on average by 2.7 % per year (potentially reaching more than 13 million people in 2020). 2.2. Data collection 2.2.1. Fish landing data Data on fish landings (based on catches per unit effort) and gear used were gathered from official fishery records compiled at the Department of Statistics of the Tanzanian Fisheries Division. The data were collected every third day (making a total of ten days per month) at multiple fish markets within each of the five different coastal regions (totalling over 400 landing sites across the country) between 1984 and 2016. Data from all landing sites within a coastal region were pooled prior to analysis. Beach recorders (called ‘Bwana Diko’ in Zanzibar; de la Torre-Castro, 2006) and fisheries officers were involved in the collection of data. 2.2.2. Interview data Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a total of 319 coastal fishers (randomly selected) in the eight studied landing sites, including six sites spread along the Tanzanian mainland and one site each at the islands of Mafia (Kilindoni) and Zanzibar (Chwaka) (Fig. 1), between January and March 2016. The landing sites were selected based on fisheries activity, accessibility by road and presence of local fishers. One of the major landing sites in eastern Africa, the Ferry Fish Market in Dar es Salaam, was not chosen because it has a proportionally high quantity of fish landings from migratory fishers (de la Torre-Castro and Lindström, 2010; Jiddawi and Öhman, 2002; Wanyonyi et al., 2016), who fish in different areas spread across the country (and elsewhere) and therefore do not properly reflect the local coastal fishery (Wanyonyi et al., 2016). The semi-structured questionnaires used during the interviews contained both open-ended and closed questions 68

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Fig. 1. Map of the eight fish landing sites used for interview data collection. The selected sites represent major fishing areas of Tanzania.

69

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

matrix was then normalized and weighted after pairwise comparisons of all indicators in the matrix. An average of the weighting from a normalized matrix with consistency ratios less than 0.1 was used to compute fisheries’ community adaptive capacity (Appendix A).

Table 1 Numbers of interviewed fishers from the investigated landing sites in Tanzania (n = 319). Landing site

District

Region

No. respondents

Deepsea Bagamoyo Kunduchi Nyamisati Somanga Shangani Kilindoni Chwaka

Tanga Bagamoyo Kinondoni Rufiji Kilwa Mtwara Mafia Unguja kati

Tanga Pwani Dar es Salaam Pwani Lindi Mtwara Pwani Zanzibar

49 45 34 38 43 37 50 23

3. Results 3.1. Catch trends of fish landings, number of fishermen and gear used Fisheries statistics showed a significant decline in fish catches from 1984 to 2016, both in terms of landings per vessel and landings per fisher (linear regression, d = 15, p < 0.05; Fig. 2), and an increased number of registered fishermen from 13,783 in 1984 to 54,511 in 2016. The decline in the number of fish landings corresponds to a change in fishing gear used; the beach seine that used to be the significant gear type in the 1980s has to a large extent decreased in use, while the ring net fishery, dominant in the present day, has increased (Fig. 3).

(Cohen and Crabtree, 2006). The interviews were intended to assess if there have been any recent changes in fishing activities by focusing on how fishers responded to fluctuating fisheries catches (and potential shifts in fishing habitat preference) over the last decade (2006–2016) and also to evaluate the fishers’ response to an anticipated future scenario of a 50 % decline in landings from the current fisheries catch levels (see Appendix A). In addition, to determine how the adaptive capacity to climate change varies among different local communities, quantification of household and community wealth were performed separately for each of the different coastal fishing communities interviewed. At household level, we specifically focused on nine individual material belongings or assets (house, vehicle, electricity, television, gas or electric stove, fan, piped water, refrigerator and radio), and at community level, we included sixteen community infrastructural items (hospital, medical clinic, doctor, primary school, secondary school, piped water, sewage treatment, electric service, phone service, food market, pharmacy, restaurant, petrol station, public transport, paved road and banking facilities). Prior to the interviews, meetings were held with fisheries officers, beach recorders and one representative from the local Beach Management Unit (BMU), aiming to introduce the study and asking for their cooperation. The majority of the interviews were performed at the landing sites, while a few were carried out in the fishers’ households (Table 1).

3.2. Overview of the small-scale fisheries based on the interviewed fishers’ perceptions The interviewed fishers (n = 319) were all men (reflecting the strong male dominance in the SSFs) and among them, 87 % were local fishermen, whereas 13 % were migrant fishers. Seventy per cent of the fishers had more than ten years of experience, while a small proportion (14 %) had less than five years of experience. Seventy-six per cent of the fishers were between 21 and 40 years old, 21 % above 40 years old and only 3% below the age of 20. A majority of the fishers had primary education (65 %), while only a few had secondary education (4%), and almost a third (31 %) had no formal education. In total, 41 % of the fishermen owned a fishing vessel, while the remaining 59 % were only crew of a vessel. Among the vessel holders, dugout canoes were possessed by 47 % of the fishers, small outboard engine-driven boats by 45 % and outriggers by 7%. As typical of many SSFs, a variety of fishing gear types are used in Tanzania. The interviews showed that the predominant gear type was ring net, which was used by 37 % of the fishers, followed by hook and line (22 %), gillnet (16 %) and traps (10 %), while beach seine, shark net, spear gun and longline were used each by 3% of the fishers, and cast net by 1% of the fishers. Interestingly, among all the interviewed fishers, 83 % reported fishing activity to span about 21–30 days per month. The selection of fishing habitat varied among the fishers; the offshore pelagic environment was the most preferred habitat to 36 % of the fishermen, followed by coral reef (21 %), seagrass meadows (19 %), mangroves (7%), and unvegetated (sandy or muddy) bottoms, including estuaries (17 %).

2.3. Data analysis Using historical fish landing data, a simple linear regression was fitted to test whether the decline in fishery catch rates from past to present years (catch trend) was significant. Answer sheets provided from the semi-structured interviews were coded into answer groups following pre- and post-determined answers, and processed using descriptive frequency in the statistical software SPSS v. 20. Differences in percentage frequency of respondents between the present and past fishing distances among fishers were assessed using the Pearson’s chisquared test (p ≤ 0.05). Differences in adaptive capabilities among coastal fishing communities were estimated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method developed by Saaty (1990). We defined adaptive capacity as the ability of households in fisheries-dependent communities to anticipate, respond to, minimize, cope with, and recover from fisheries catch fluctuations according to Cinner et al. (2012). Centred on this definition and previous studies in the region (McClanahan et al., 2008) and elsewhere (Brooks et al., 2005; Kalikoski et al., 2010; Maina et al., 2015), seven adaptive capacity indicators were set following the methodology presented in McClanahan et al. (2008) and Cinner et al. (2012) (Table 2). An adaptive capacity index was calculated as the sum of all seven indicators after interval scaling using the AHP method (Saaty, 1990). Before computation, indicators were scaled from 1 to 3 based on their importance to adaptation as described by Saaty (1990) and McClanahan et al. (2008). One, ‘1′, represented equal importance between paired indicators, ‘2′ when one indicator was slightly more important than the other, and ‘3′ when an indicator was much more important than the other. The resulting

3.3. Interviewed fishers’ perceptions of recent catch decline When fishers were explicitly asked about changes in the SSFs with regard to landings per unit effort during the last decade (i.e. 2006–2016), 84 % reported declining fisheries catches and almost all fishers (97 %) mentioned an increased number of fishers competing for the fisheries resources. The majority of fishers particularly highlighted some fish taxa being negatively affected, including demersal emperors (Lethrinus sp.) and pelagic fishes such as Scombridae (Rastrelliger sp. and Auxis thazard) and Carangidae (Table 3). Primarily, the respondent fishers perceived overfishing (57 %), environmental changes related to extreme weather (28 %) or destruction of fishing habitats (15 %) being the root cause for the decline in fishery catches (Fig. 4). During the time window considered in the interviews or the assessed period, fishers have been coping with declining catches by moving their fishing effort further off from the coast, often more than 10 km from land (Fig. 5). 70

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Table 2 Indicators, measures and their global priority values used to estimate adaptive capacity indices (global priorities were calculated after weighting and scaling indicators using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, method). For local priority values weighting, see Appendix A. The table and methodology are adapted from Saaty (1990), McClanahan (2008) and Cinner et al. (2015). Indicator

Measure of indicator based on interviews

Data type

Global priority value

Recognition of declining fish catches Capacity to develop response to anticipation Occupation (livelihood) flexibility Occupation diversification

Whether interviewee realized and responded to factors behind fish decline Stated response to hypothetical 50 % decline from present fish catches Whether interviewee changed employment within the last five years Whether interviewed household members had other occupation out of the fishery sector (e.g. beekeeping, cropping, etc.) Whether interviewee is a member of any community-based social organization (e.g. BMU) Whether respondent had 9 material assets: house, vehicle, electricity, television, gas or electrical stove, fan, piped water, refrigerator, radio Measure of presence of 16 infrastructural items in the community: hospital, medical clinic, doctor, primary school, secondary school, piped water, sewage treatment, electric service, phone service, food market, pharmacy,

Binary Binary Binary Binary

0.06 0.10 0.10 0.29

Binary

0.06

Continuous

0.22

Continuous

0.14

Social capital Individual wealth Community infrastructure

Fig. 2. Time series of fish LPUE (landings per unit effort) in the artisanal fisheries of Tanzania from 1984 through 2016. The inset linear regression trend lines show significant decreases in LPUE for both vessels and fishers, respectively (p < 0.05, df = 15).

fisheries catch by 50 % from today’s level, more than 80 % of the fishers in the most adaptive site (Shangani), and also in the least adaptive site (Bagamoyo), claimed that they would continue fishing (Fig. 7). In Nyamisati (Rufiji), where the adaptive capacity index was at a moderate level, 60 % of the fishers would respond by continuing fishing, whereas 40 % would stop.

3.4. Fishers’ adaptive capacity and response to an anticipated future scenario of a 50 % decline in landings from the current fisheries catch levels When assessing adaptive capacity indicators at household and community level, we found clear differences among the studied coastal fishing communities. Generally, the adaptive capacity level among fishing communities in the most southern region of the country (Shangani in the Mtwara region, Fig. 1) was higher compared to all other coastal fishing communities, while Bagamoyo (in the Pwani region, Fig. 1) showed the lowest level among the studied fishery communities (Fig. 6). We also found that the majority of the fishers’ household members (75 %) were engaged in different economic activities. Crop farming involved 38 % of the household members in general, while others were involved in small-scale businesses (24 %), beekeeping (1.3 %), and government work such as teaching (4%). In addition, 56 % of the fishers (spread among all study sites) were directly involved in Community-Based Organizations (CBOs), like Beach Management Units (BMUs), which are an important tool linking local communities to resource management. Such alternative livelihoods and involvement in CBOs may enhance adaptation options upon the continued decline in fish catches. Interestingly, when fishers were asked about how they would respond to an anticipated future decline in

4. Discussion This study shows that artisanal fishers are generally aware of the negative long-term trends in fish landings confirmed from official fishery records, and it also illustrates particular adaptive responses by the fishers and their communities to declining fish stocks. Our interviews revealed that fishers increased their efforts as an adaptive mechanism to declining fish stocks by changing their resource use behaviours, including changing fishing grounds, using more efficient gear and applying modern fishing vessels able to withstand exposure to harsher weather conditions in offshore waters; only a few fishers would willingly exit fishing for an alternative livelihood, though it is acknowledged that in a changing environment it is always strategic for a community to be flexible (Ksenofontov et al., 2017). In this study, when the interviewees were asked about their future response to a continued 71

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Fig. 3. Long-term trends in number of gear per unselective gear type (beach seine and ringnet) common in the artisanal fisheries of Tanzania during the period 1984–2016. The historical data sets have been fitted using a second order polynomial.

of some demersal (e.g. Lethrinidae) and pelagic fish (e.g. Scombridae and Carangidae) were perceived to be highly affected. The pressures from fishing and environmental changes have recently been associated with global fisheries decline and even the collapse of some important fisheries around the globe (Galbraith et al., 2017; Pauly et al., 2002). On the east African coast, increased fishing pressure is thought to be an important contributor to overfishing, and observed fish catch declines due to continued increasing fishing efforts linked to coastal migration are perceived as caused by the availability and reliability of ecosystem services, including fishing and trade (Afifi et al., 2014; Black et al., 2011; NBS, 2012). In Tanzania, many people have started fishing because of the increased incidence of drought causing crop failures in agricultural regions (Kabote et al., 2017; Kashaigili et al., 2014; Levira, 2009) and extensive population growth creating unemployment (NBS, 2012). The evident cascade, with coastal migrators joining the SSFs due to crop failures elsewhere, may thus have caused indirect climate-induced pressure to marine ecosystems, affecting fisheries and fish stocks. Such a cascade phenomenon was perceived among the fishermen, where 30 % actually started fishing because of the negative effects of the persistent drought on crop production over the last decade, and where an additional 8 % changed their previous employment from fishing to crop farming and restarted fishing activity during the last five years prior our survey. The climate-induced pressure on crop farming may thus explain the observed fourfold growth in numbers of fishermen in the coastal regions of Tanzania since the 1980s (as presented in our historical data assessment) and also the observed persistent fishing behaviour despite a strong fish stock decline. With continued crop failures due to drought, or agricultural systems that depend on unpredictable rainfall patterns (Kashaigili et al., 2014; Mourice et al., 2017), more people will likely be displaced into the fishing sector, potentially leading to conflicts over scarce resources (Conway et al., 2005), as occurred in the Antigua and Barbuda (West Indies) during Hurricane Luis in 1995 (Mahon, 2002). Therefore, we contemplate, agricultural societies turning to the fishery resource as their sole alternative in a changing environment is not an appropriate strategy for community health. However, the fishing sector should be considered part of multiple livelihood alternatives rather than the sole alternative.

Table 3 Fish species in decline during the last decade presented as proportions (%) of responses from interviewed fishers in the SSFs of Tanzania. Species

Family

Habitat

Percentage

Lethrinus sp. Rastrelliger sp. Auxis thazard Carangoides sp. Carcharhinus sp. Pomadasys sp. Caesio sp. Chanos chanos Dasyatis sp. Scomberomorus sp. Sardinella sp. Leptoscarus sp. Makaira sp. Arius spp. Parastromateus sp.

Lethrinidae Scombridae Scombridae Carangidae Carcharhinidae Haemulidae Caesionidae Chanidae Dasyatidae Scombridae Clupeidae Scaridae Istiophoridae Ariidae Carangidae

Demersal, coastal waters Pelagic, coastal waters Pelagic, coastal waters Estuarine and coastal waters Oceanic Coastal waters Reef-associated Pelagic, coastal waters Demersal, coastal waters Pelagic Pelagic, coastal waters Reef-seagrass associated Oceanic Estuarine and coastal waters Shallow muddy coastal waters

31.25 18.75 13.39 8.04 4.46 3.57 3.57 2.68 2.68 2.68 1.79 1.79 0.89 0.89 0.89

decline in fish landings, the majority of fishers opted to continue fishing in the future even if the fish landings would be further reduced (an alarming scenario for a community that is not being flexible). Broadly, this study shows that management can be stronger by combining official records with fishers’ perceptions, as they are congruent with each other. For that reason, management will be directed towards the community level (bottom-up strategies in this case), and may work better than the current top-down management strategy (management of natural resources under a thorough plan established by the government and executed by all stakeholders) in this type of fishery, where the majority of fishers (84 %) are aware of the alarming scenario (declining stock and lack of flexibility) and would be adversely affected, particularly regarding food availability, income and coastal livelihoods. 4.1. Long-term declining trends in fish landings Historical records and perceptions of the interviewed fishermen congruently have confirmed a substantial decline in fish landings in Tanzania since the 1980s. The interviewees generally perceived overfishing as the main reason for the decline in fish catches over the last decade, followed by environmental changes related to extreme weather events, and destruction of fishing habitats. In particular, the availability

4.2. Community adaptive capability and fishers’ response to declining fish landings Our findings revealed that during the past three decades artisanal 72

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Fig. 4. Reasons for fishery decline over the past decades in Tanzania according to perceptions of the interviewed fishers (n = 319). Environmental changes include unpredictable rainfall patterns, drought and increased sediment load to estuaries in intense rain periods.

been damaged by destructive fishing methods such as beach seines or spear guns (Wallner-Hahn et al., 2016). Today, the offshore fishing is essential for livelihood and food security, particularly in areas where the agricultural sector is not fulfilling the population protein demand (Kashaigili et al., 2014; Mourice et al., 2017). In addition to the offshore fishing, communities are generally engaged in many alternative livelihood activities, including crop farming, collecting and selling coconuts, selling groceries, food and fruit vending, seaweed harvesting, salt making and beekeeping, as supplementary food sources and sources of income. A broad set of alternative livelihoods is known to give greater choice of flexibility by spreading risks and reducing community vulnerability upon fishery impacts (Akaba and Akuamoah-Boateng, 2018; Allison and Ellis, 2001; Cinner et al., 2018; Savo et al., 2017; Waiyaki et al., 2012). For instance, around Lake Chad, fishing families diversify into crop farming during periods of poor fish production, while in good fishing seasons they carry

fishers have adapted to the declining fish catches in coastal regions by moving their fishing efforts further offshore and by using more efficient gear, as shown by the gradual shift from beach seine (primarily used in the 1980s) to the more popular ring net technique. Such adaptation is expensive as it requires upgrading of fishing vessels and gear to withstand rough weather in offshore waters, and it involves extra fishing costs associated with fuel consumption while navigating to distant offshore areas. Despite higher costs, however, such community adaptation is obvious among small-scale fishers around the world (Saldaña et al., 2016; Torres-Guevara et al., 2016), probably due to a general decline in fish catches in the nearshore habitats (Galbraith et al., 2017; Hilborn et al., 2003; Pauly and Zeller, 2016; Swartz et al., 2010; Watson et al., 2013b). In Tanzania, the adaptation option to exchange nearshore coastal fisheries to offshore waters seems critical, since fisheries resources in the shallow-water habitats are known to be overexploited and many inshore habitats (e.g. seagrass beds and coral reefs) have

Fig. 5. Progression of change in fishing distance among the interviewed fishermen along the coast of Tanzania and during the last decade (n = 319). Fishers have been moving their fishing effort further off from the coast, often more than 10 km from land (Chi-square test: X2 [9] = 163.99, p < 0.05). 73

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Fig. 6. Weighting contribution of seven indicators of adaptive capacity for eight landing sites in Tanzania (based on a global weighted matrix and priorities from 319 interviewed fishermen using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, method). The methodology is adapted from Saaty (1990), McClanahan (2008) and Cinner et al. (2015).

Fig. 7. Spider plot of differences in adaptation responses of small-scale coastal fishers from eight landing sites spread over the coastal regions of Tanzania to the hypothetical 50 % decline in fish landings. The number of fishers who responded to different coping mechanisms were pooled and presented as proportions (%) of respondents.

on fishing (Badjeck et al., 2010; Sarch and Allison, 2001). In this study, however, when fishing communities in Tanzania were asked about their future response to a worst-case scenario of a predicted decline in fish catches to half of the current catch levels, most fishers responded that they would continue fishing, including even fishers from the communities with the highest adaptive capabilities, which are thought adaptive and flexible (Cinner et al., 2018; McClanahan et al., 2008). Several factors might explain the fishers’ somewhat surprising general response to such a predicted devastating scenario. First, the livelihood alternatives like crop farming, which employs over 65 % of the population, have suffered similar impacts as the fishing sector, thus preventing fishers from switching to the sector as described by Kashaigili et al. (2014). Second, specialization of fishers to a certain fishery activity, such as offshore fishing in this case, may have eroded fishers’ adaptive decisions to switch among livelihood alternatives – as was the case in the South Indian lagoon in the 1990s, where fishers considered diversification as a ‘step backwards’ in their development and lifestyle – or fishers are considering alternative livelihoods as not real alternatives but rather additional activities (Coulthard, 2008). Third, the adaptive

capabilities among coastal communities across the different regions in Tanzania are perhaps lower or not enough to affect fishers’ decisions, thus confirming the previous finding by McClanahan et al. (2008), showing that Tanzania and Kenya are the least adaptive countries in the WIO region. Fourth, fishers perhaps opt to continue fishing because the decline in fish landings is turning fisheries products (fish) into a superior commodity, since its demand is increasing with the growing population and seafood remains the single most traded foodstuff worldwide (Engle et al., 2016). This perhaps causes increased fish prices that are enough to sustain fish operations in declining fisheries and thereby disfavour local fishers. If climate change and environmental distress lead to fewer resources in local habitats, overfishing would accelerate (especially when fishers continue fishing the potentially already depleted stock) and this would have adverse effects on food security, economy and coastal livelihoods. 4.3. Involvement of coastal communities in management The majority of the interviewed fishers had more than ten years of 74

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

experience and 84 % personally witnessed the evolution of fluctuating catches and fishing behaviour during their time as fishers. In addition, the majority of fishers reported fishing activity spanning for about 21–30 days a month, which is a clear indication of the importance of the small-scale fisheries to the community as suggested previously (de la Torre-Castro et al., 2014; (2017); McClanahan and Cinner, 2012; Thyresson et al., 2013). Therefore, the knowledge held by fishers is essential and the stakeholders’ opinions should be considered in governmental management plans. If the management strategy would involve the local fishers’ knowledge and decisions, then the service delivery (flexibility around declining stocks in this case) and accountability of communities would improve and lead to more flexible societies. Based on the findings of this study, which showed persistent fishing behaviour with a future fishery decline during the coming decade (as an effect of overfishing and climate change) and because of the tight connection that exists between fishers and fishery resources, it is suggested that management options are taken in steps, ultimately building livelihood flexibility and involvement of fishers in decision making for a sustainable fishery.

Visualization. Said S. Mgeleka: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Writing - review & editing. Patrick Polte: Conceptualization, Writing - review & editing, Supervision. Mattias Sköld: Conceptualization, Writing - review & editing, Supervision. Regina Lindborg: Conceptualization, Writing - review & editing. Maricela de la Torre-Castro: Writing - review & editing. Martin Gullström: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing, Supervision. Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Acknowledgements We thank all beach recorders and interviewed fishers from the different regions across Tanzania. In addition, we would like to extend our gratitude to the Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI) in Dar es Salaam and the Institute of Marine Sciences (IMS) at Zanzibar for their support. The Sida Bilateral Marine Science Program between Sweden and Tanzania generously financed this research.

CRediT authorship contribution statement Mathew O. Silas: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing,

Appendix A. Local priority values weighting from normalized matrices after pairwise comparisons of adaptive capacity indicators based on their importance using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, method in different landing sites along the coastal Tanzania SSFs. The methodology is adapted from Saaty (1990), McClanahan (2008) and Cinner et al. (2015)

Landing site

Recognition of declining fish catches

Capacity of response to anticipation

Occupation livelihood flexibility

Occupation diversification

Social capital

Individual wealth

Community infrastructure

Deepsea Bagamoyo Kunduchi Nyamisati Somanga Shangani Kilindoni Chwaka

0.11 0.06 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.16 0.06 0.25

0.11 0.06 0.06 0.2 0.21 0.09 0.12 0.12

0.15 0.09 0.09 0.22 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.18

0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.2 0.21 0.06 0.06

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.15 0.2 0.2 0.1

0.21 0.11 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.11 0.11 0.15 0.04 0.06 0.2 0.2 0.11

Appendix B. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.012.

Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., Thomas, D., 2011. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environ. Change 21, S3–S11. Blythe, J.L., Murray, G., Flaherty, M.S., 2013. Historical perspectives and recent trends in the coastal Mozambican fishery. Ecol. Soc. 18. Brander, K.M., 2007. Global fish production and climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 19709–19714. Brooks, N., Neil Adger, W., Mick Kelly, P., 2005. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environ. Change 15, 151–163. Checkley Jr., D.M., Asch, R.G., Rykaczewski, R.R., 2017. Climate, anchovy, and sardine. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 9, 469–493. Cinner, J., 2009. Poverty and the use of destructive fishing gear near east African marine protected areas. Environ. Conserv. 36, 321–326. Cinner, J.E., Folke, C., Daw, T., Hicks, C.C., 2011. Responding to change: using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampening exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers. Global Environ. Change 21, 7–12. Cinner, J.E., McClanahan, T.R., Graham, N.A.J., Daw, T.M., Maina, J., Stead, S.M., Wamukota, A., Brown, K., Bodin, Ö, 2012. Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries. Global Environ. Change 22, 12–20. Cinner, J.E., Huchery, C., Darling, E.S., Humphries, A.T., Graham, N.A.J., Hicks, C.C., Marshall, N., McClanahan, T.R., 2013. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change. PLoS One 8, e74321. Cinner, J.E., Huchery, C., Hicks, C.C., Daw, T.M., Marshall, N., Wamukota, A., Allison, E.H., 2015. Changes in adaptive capacity of Kenyan fishing communities. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 872–876.

References Adger, W.N., Vincent, K., 2005. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes Rendus Geosci. 337, 399–410. Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., Hulme, M., 2003. Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog. Develop. Stud. 3, 179–195. Afifi, T., Liwenga, E., Kwezi, L., 2014. Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro. Tanzania. Climate Develop. 6, 53–60. Akaba, S., Akuamoah-Boateng, S., 2018. An evaluation of climate change effects on fishermen and adaption strategies in central region, Ghana. In: Leal Filho, W. (Ed.), Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Coastal Communities. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 133–147. Allison, E.H., Ellis, F., 2001. The livelihoods approach and management of small-scale fisheries. Mar. Policy 25, 377–388. Allison, E.H., Perry, A.L., Badjeck, M.C., Neil Adger, W., Brown, K., Conway, D., Halls, A.S., Pilling, G.M., Reynolds, J.D., Andrew, N.L., 2009. Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish Fish. 10, 173–196. Auber, A., Gohin, F., Goascoz, N., Schlaich, I., 2017. Decline of cold-water fish species in the Bay of Somme (English Channel, France) in response to ocean warming. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 189, 189–202. Badjeck, M.-C., Allison, E.H., Halls, A.S., Dulvy, N.K., 2010. Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Mar. Policy 34, 375–383. Béné, C., Macfadyen, G., Allison, E.H., 2007. Increasing the Contribution of Small-scale Fisheries to Poverty Alleviation and Food Security. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper 481, Rome.

75

Environmental Science and Policy 108 (2020) 67–76

M.O. Silas, et al.

Publishing. pp. 372049. Mahon, R., 2002. Adaptation of fisheries and fishing communities to the impacts of climate change in the CARICOM region. Issues Paper Prepared for the CARICOM Fisheries Unit, Belize City, Belize, as Input to the Planning Process for the Project Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) of the Caribbean Center for Climate Change (CCCC). Maina, J., Kithiia, J., Cinner, J., Neale, E., Noble, S., Charles, D., Watson, J.E.M., 2015. Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea. Reg. Environ. Change 16, 881–891. McClanahan, T.R., Cinner, J.E., 2012. Adapting to a Changing Environment: Confronting the Consequences of Climate Change. Oxford University Press, Oxford. McClanahan, T.R., Cinner, J.E., Maina, J., Graham, N.A.J., Daw, T.M., Stead, S.M., Wamukota, A., Brown, K., Ateweberhan, M., Venus, V., Polunin, N.V.C., 2008. Conservation action in a changing climate. Conserv. Lett. 1, 53–59. Meynecke, J.O., Lee, S.Y., Duke, N.C., Warnken, J., 2006. Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 69, 491–504. Mourice, S.K., Mbungu, W., Tumbo, S.D., 2017. Quantification of climate change and variability impacts on maize production at farm level in the wami River Sub-Basin, Tanzania. In: Ahmed, Stockle, C. (Eds.), Quantif. Clim. Variab., Adapt. Mitig. Agricult. Sustain. Springer, Cham, pp. 323–351. NBS, 2012. Tanzania NBS (National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania), 2012. Population and Housing Census: Population Distribution by Administrative Areas. Ministry of Finance, Dar es Salaam. Ngusaru, A., Tobey, J., Lihikula, G., 2001. Tanzania State of Coast 2001: People and the Environment. Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership Science and Technical Working Group. Nordlund, L.M., Unsworth, R.K.F., Gullström, M., Cullen-Unsworth, L.C., 2018. Global significance of seagrass fishery activity. Fish Fish. 19, 399–412. Nouri, M., Homaee, M., Bannayan, M., Hoogenboom, G., 2017. Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change. Agric. Water Manage. 186, 108–119. Pauly, D., Christensen, V., Guenette, S., Pitcher, T.J., Sumaila, U.R., Walters, C.J., Watson, R., Zeller, D., 2002. Towards sustainability in world fisheries. Nature 418, 689–695. Pauly, D., Zeller, D., 2016. Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. Nat. Comm. 7. Quentin Grafton, R., 2010. Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries. Mar. Policy 34, 606–615. Rocliffe, S., Harris, A., 2014. Scaling success in octopus fisheries management in the Western Indian Ocean. In: Proceedings of the Workshop. 3-5 December 2014, Stone Town, Zanzibar. Blue Ventures, London. pp. 5. Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process. Eur. J. Inf. Syst. 48, 9–26. Saldaña, A., Salas, S., Arce‐Ibarra, A., Torres‐Irineo, E., 2016. Fishing operations and adaptive strategies of small‐scale fishers: insights for fisheries management in data‐poor situations. Fish. Manage. Ecol. 24, 19–32. Sarch, M.-T., Allison, E.H., 2001. Fluctuating fisheries in Africa’s inland waters: well adapted livelihoods, maladapted management. In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference of the Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade. Corvallis, Oregon, July 9-14th. Savo, V., Morton, C., Lepofsky, D., 2017. Impacts of climate change for coastal fishers and implications for fisheries. Fish Fish. 18, 877–889. Seara, T., Clay, P.M., Colburn, L.L., 2016. Perceived adaptive capacity and natural disasters: a fisheries case study. Global Environ. Change 38, 49–57. Semba, M., Kimirei, I., Kyewalyanga, M., Peter, N., Brendonck, L., Somers, B., 2016. The decline in phytoplankton biomass and prawn catches in the Rufiji-Mafia Channel, Tanzania. West. Ind. Ocean J. Mar. Sci. 15, 15–29. Swartz, W., Sala, E., Tracey, S., Watson, R., Pauly, D., 2010. The spatial expansion and ecological footprint of fisheries (1950 to present). PLoS One 5, e15143. Thyresson, M., Crona, B., Nyström, M., de la Torre-Castro, M., Jiddawi, N., 2013. Tracing value chains to understand effects of trade on coral reef fish in Zanzibar. Tanzania. Mar. Policy 38, 246–256. Torres-Guevara, L.E., Lopez, M.C., Schlüter, A., 2016. Understanding artisanal fishers’ behaviors: the case of Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, Colombia. Sustainability 8, 549. Tuda, P.M., Wolff, M., 2015. Evolving trends in the Kenyan artisanal reef fishery and its implications for fisheries management. Ocean Coast. Manage. 104, 36–44. Waiyaki, E., Owiti, H., Angwenyi, R., Muriuki, T., 2012. An assessment of perceived socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the community of Faza Island, Lamu East District, Kenya. Soc. Sci. Res. Rep. Ser. 35, 83–125 OSSREA. Wallner-Hahn, S., Molander, F., Gallardo, G., Villasante, S., Eklöf, J.S., Jiddawi, N.S., de la Torre-Castro, M., 2016. Destructive gear use in a tropical fishery: institutional factors influencing the willingness- and capacity to change. Mar. Policy 72, 199–210. Wanyonyi, I.N., Wamukota, A., Mesaki, S., Guissamulo, A.T., Ochiewo, J., 2016. Artisanal fisher migration patterns in coastal East Africa. Ocean Coast. Manage. 119, 93–108. Watson, J.E., Iwamura, T., Butt, N., 2013a. Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 989–994. Watson, R.A., Cheung, W.W.L., Anticamara, J.A., Sumaila, R.U., Zeller, D., Pauly, D., 2013b. Global marine yield halved as fishing intensity redoubles. Fish Fish. 14, 493–503.

Cinner, J.E., Adger, W.N., Allison, E.H., Barnes, M.L., Brown, K., Cohen, P.J., Gelcich, S., Hicks, C.C., Hughes, T.P., Lau, J., Marshall, N.A., Morrison, T.H., 2018. Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 117–123. Cohen, D., Crabtree, B., 2006. Qualitative Research Guidelines Project. http:// www.qualres.org/ HomeQual-3512.html. . Conway, D., Allison, E., Felstead, R., Goulden, M., 2005. Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods. Philos. Trans. Biol. Sci. 363, 49–54. Coulthard, S., 2008. Adapting to environmental change in artisanal fisheries—insights from a South Indian Lagoon. Global Environ. Change 18, 479–489. Daw, T., Adger, N., Brown, K., Badjeck, M.C., 2009. Climate change and capture fisheries. Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: overview of current scientific knowledge. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 530. pp. 95–135. de la Torre-Castro, M., 2006. Beyond regulations in fisheries management: the dilemmas of the “beach recorders” bwana dikos in Zanzibar. Tanzania. Ecol. Soc. 11, 35. de la Torre-Castro, M., Lindström, L., 2010. Fishing institutions: addressing regulative, normative and cultural-cognitive elements to enhance fisheries management. Mar. Policy 34, 77–84. de la Torre-Castro, M., Di Carlo, G., Jiddawi, N.S., 2014. Seagrass importance for a smallscale fishery in the tropics: the need for seascape management. Mar. Poll. Bull. 83, 398–407. de la Torre-Castro, M., Fröcklin, S., Börjesson, S., Okupnik, J., Jiddawi, N.S., 2017. Gender analysis for better coastal management – increasing our understanding of social-ecological seascapes. Mar. Policy 83, 62–74. Engle, C.R., Quagrainie, K.K., Dey, M.M., 2016. The international market for seafood and aquaculture products. Seafood and Aquaculture Marketing Handbook. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, pp. 162–186. FAO, 2016. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2016. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper. pp. 200. Francis, J., Bryceson, I., 2000. Tanzanian coastal and marine resources: some examples illustrating questions of sustainable use. Lessons Learned: Case Stud. Sustain. Use 4, 76–102. Galbraith, E.D., Carozza, D.A., Bianchi, D., 2017. A coupled human-Earth model perspective on long-term trends in the global marine fishery. Nat. Comm. 8, 14884. Gallopín, G.C., 2006. Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environ. Change 16, 293–303. Gammelsrød, T., 1992. Variation in shrimp abundance on the Sofala Bank, Mozambique, and its relation to the Zambezi River runoff. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 35, 91–103. Halpern, B.S., Frazier, M., Potapenko, J., Casey, K.S., Koenig, K., Longo, C., Lowndes, J.S., Rockwood, R.C., Selig, E.R., Selkoe, K.A., Walbridge, S., 2015. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world’s ocean. Nat. Comm. 6, 7615. Henson, S.A., Beaulieu, C., Ilyina, T., John, J.G., Long, M., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., Sarmiento, J.L., 2017. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nat. Comm. Hilborn, R., Branch, T.A., Ernst, B., Magnussson, A., Minte-Vera, C.V., Scheuerell, M.D., Valero, J.L., 2003. State of the world’s fisheries. Ann. Rev. Environ. Res. 28, 359–399. Islam, M.M., Sallu, S., Hubacek, K., Paavola, J., 2014. Vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change: insights from coastal Bangladesh. Reg. Environ. Change 14, 281–294. Jackson, J.B.C., Kirby, M.X., Berger, W.H., Bjorndal, K.A., Botsford, L.W., Bourque, B.J., Bradbury, R.H., Cooke, R., Earlandson, J., Estes, J.A., Hughes, T.P., Kidwell, S., Lange, C.B., Lenihan, H.S., Pandolfi, J.M., Peterson, C.H., Steneck, R.S., Tegner, M.J., Warner, R.R., 2001. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293, 629–638. Jiddawi, N.S., Öhman, M.C., 2002. Marine fisheries in Tanzania. Ambio 31, 518–527. Johnson, T., 2012. Fisheries Adaptations to Climate Change. Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program. Kabote, S.J., Mamiro, D.P., Synnevåg, G., Urassa, J.K., Mattee, A.Z., Mbwambo, J.S., Nombo, C.I., Chingonikaya, E.E., Masolwa, L., 2017. Perceived and measured climate variability and change in semi-arid environments in Tanzania: experiences from Iramba and Meatu Districts. Int. J. Environ. Sustain. Develop. 16, 1–24. Kalikoski, D.C., Quevedo Neto, P., Almudi, T., 2010. Building adaptive capacity to climate variability: the case of artisanal fisheries in the estuary of the Patos Lagoon. Brazil. Mar. Policy 34, 742–751. Kashaigili, J., Levira, P., Liwenga, E., Mdemu, M., 2014. Analysis of climate variability, perceptions and coping strategies of Tanzanian coastal forest dependent communities. Amer. J. Clim. Change 3, 212. Kimirei, I., Igulu, M., Semba, M., Lugendo, B., 2016. Small Estuarine and Non-estuarine Mangrove Ecosystems of Tanzania: overlooked Coastal Habitats? Estuaries: a Lifeline of Ecosystem Services in the Western Indian Ocean. Springer, pp. 209–226. Ksenofontov, S., Backhaus, N., Schaepman-Strub, G., 2017. ‘To fish or not to fish?’: fishing communities of Arctic Yakutia in the face of environmental change and political transformations. Polar Rec. 53, 289–303. Laevastu, T., Marasco, R.J., 1982. Fluctuations of fish stocks and the consequences of the fluctuations to fishery and its management. NOAA Techn. Memo., NMFS F/NWC27 53. Lesk, C., Rowhani, P., Ramankutty, N., 2016. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature 529, 84–87. Levira, P.W., 2009. Climate change impact in agriculture sector in Tanzania and its mitigation measure. In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. IOP

76