An economic analysis of the Portuguese fisheries sector 1960–2011

Marine Policy 51 (2015) 21–30

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An economic analysis of the Portuguese fisheries sector 1960–2011 Trond Bjørndal a,b,n, Alena Lappo c, Jorge Ramos d a

Aalesund University College, Norway SNF Centre for Applied Research at NHH, Norway FAO Fisheries Division, Italy d IPMA-Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera, Portugal b c

art ic l e i nf o

a b s t r a c t

Article history: Received 23 September 2013 Received in revised form 18 June 2014 Accepted 21 June 2014

This paper undertakes an economic analysis of the Portuguese fisheries sector and fish markets for the period 1960–2011. In this period the Portuguese economy has undergone a transformation as well as been subject to numerous external shocks. These include the revolution of 1974, substantial emigration as well as immigration, membership of the European Union in 1986 and adopting the Euro in 1999. The fisheries sector was exposed to a major shock of its own: the introduction of 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones in 1977 essentially lead to the demise of Portugal as a Distant Water Fishing State. As a consequence of these shocks, the Portuguese fisheries sector and trade have undergone tremendous changes. It is remarkable that the overall supply of fish (tonnes) into Portugal, measured as domestic landings þexports – imports, was around 500,000 t annually in the early 1960s, reaching a peak of 627,000 t in 1967. Due to the macroeconomic shocks, it subsequently fell to a bottom level of 246,000 t in 1979. By the mid 1980s, supply started increasing and in 2007, total supply was estimated at 655,000 t, the highest level ever recorded. & 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: Portugal Fisheries sector DWFS Fish supply

1. Introduction The purpose of this paper is to undertake an economic analysis of the Portuguese fisheries sector and fish markets for the period 1960–2011. The analysis includes landings as well as trade and consumption. In the past 50 years the Portuguese economy has undergone a transformation as well as been subject to numerous external shocks. These include the “Carnation Revolution” of 1974, very substantial changes in population size, membership of the European Union in 1986 and adopting the Euro in 1999. In addition to these macroeconomic perturbations, the fisheries sector was exposed to a major shock of its own: the introduction of 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones in 1977, as a consequence of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction (EFJ). As described by Bjørndal and Munro [10], EFJ involved a massive reallocation of natural capital from Distant Water Fishing States (DWFS) to coastal states, with winners as well as losers. EFJ meant Portuguese fishermen were excluded from distant water fishing grounds and essentially led to the demise of Portugal as a DWFS. As a consequence of these shocks, the Portuguese fisheries sector has undergone tremendous changes. These changes, as well

n

Corresponding author at: Aalesund University College, Norway. E-mail address: [email protected] (T. Bjørndal).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2014.06.004 0308-597X/& 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

as the reasons underlying them and their consequences, will be analysed in this article. There are several studies addressing topics relating to Portuguese fisheries, most of them related to cod. For instance, Souto [63,64] has given an ethnographic description of the evolution of the fisheries sector and the most important fishing communities over the last decades. Cole [16], Garrido [24,26], Coelho et al. [14], among others, have highlighted the importance of certain fisheries from the dictatorship period through to more recent times. Cole [16] describes in an ethnographic manner the history and evolution of the Portuguese cod fisheries off Newfoundland from the perspective of the crews and the attitudes of the fishermen in relation to the industrialisation of the fishery. Garrido [24,26] explains the socio-economic importance of the cod fisheries to Portugal, focusing on the first seven decades of the 20th century (i.e., the dictatorship period). Coelho et al. [14] revisited the historic background of the cod fisheries, but additionally provide some perspectives on the future of this fishery. Assessment on the evolution of the fishing sector in general has been addressed by several authors (e.g. [13,39,18]). The novelty of this analysis is that it is based on a 50 year long time series on Portuguese fisheries, starting during the dictatorship regime and extending until the present time where Portugal is part of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the European Union. Moreover, the fisheries will be analysed within the scope of macroeconomic developments.

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This research is based on annual data from different sources and thus covering different periods of time. Data on fish landings are available from 1960–61 onwards as are aggregate import and export quantities. On the other hand, trade statistics, in terms of import and export values, are available only from 1976. Moreover, comparison of pre- and post-revolution data should be done with some caution due to the very substantial geographic and demographic changes that occurred. All monetary values are nominal. It should be noted that landing weight of domestic catches corresponds to live, or raw weight, and is likely to be different from the corresponding import or export product weights, which might include processed products. Exact comparisons of volumes might therefore not be possible; however, for this report, the volumes analysed allow for a general comparative analysis to be made. This study is organised as follows. The macro-economic development in Portugal from 1960 to the present is analysed in section one, with an emphasis on macroeconomic “shocks”. Fish landings are described in section two, while imports and exports are analysed in section three. Section four briefly describes Portuguese fish consumption, while the research is summarised in the final section. It should be noted that it is beyond the scope of the paper to include the fish processing industry.

2. Macro-economic development in Portugal from 1960 to 2011 In the last half a century Portugal made a remarkable transition from an agrarian society to an industry- and service-based economy, but the country was still not able to successfully move on to a knowledge-based economy. The main reason for this is that, even after the return to democracy, the educational gap between Portuguese human capital and other European core countries persists [52]. During the dictatorship little attention was placed on the ability of people to read [21], and labour intensive jobs for illiterate people as in the case of fisheries were well accepted by the regime [8]. During this time frame Portugal experienced a number of macroeconomic shocks and structural changes. Portugal entered the 20th century as one of the poorest countries in the Western world and with one of the highest emigration rates [3,34]. The monarchy was at that time declining, because the country was left almost in bankruptcy while the monarchs were still living sumptuously [46]. During the First Republic (1910–1926), emigration occurred due to opportunities on the other side of the Atlantic: to Brazil and also to the United States. Many people from Northern Portugal, mainly from Oporto and Minho, went to Brazil. This was due to socio-economic particularities such as small land ownerships that were inherited only by the eldest son of large families. Accordingly, the ‘excess’ of young men were excluded from land ownership and were forced to emigrate [15,53]. Emigrants to the US had the opportunity to work particularly in the textile and fabric factories on the east coast of New England; and in agriculture, as well as in animal rearing and fisheries in California [68]. The dictatorship regime (known as Estado Novo) that lasted from 1933 to 1974 took control of the chaotic finances and enabled Portugal to be neutral during World War II. The regime was able to recover from the negative balance of trade, particularly by exporting to both sides of the conflict and by reducing imports dramatically (belligerents were producing less at that time due to the war) [40,42,56]. Portugal was predominantly an agrarian society with most of the population living in rural areas. The structure of the Portuguese economy had not changed much by the 1950s, when the

country began to industrialise as a result of accession to the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) in 1959 [6]. By that time the regime opened to foreign capital and investments were made particularly in the chemical, metal-mechanic and energy industries. Other sectors also developed later [33]. In this period hundreds of thousands of people left their occupations in the countryside and flocked mainly to coastal cities. Lisbon and Oporto received most of the people in search of urban and industrial jobs and consequently metropolitan areas developed; alternatively they emigrated [59]. During the 1960s, due to absence of employment opportunities in rural areas and to avoid the colonial war, male emigration to Europe, particularly to France, was on the rise and was very substantial [6]. Geographic vicinity and the ease to cross borders were the main motivational factors [57]. Due to industrialisation in the mid 1950s, the Portuguese GDP per capita accelerated significantly and increased throughout most of the period from 1960 to 2007 (Fig. 1). However, the growth rate fluctuated substantially over time. From 1960 to 1973 the Portuguese economy was booming, reaching one of the highest growth rates in the world (Fig. 2). This growth created opportunities for real integration with the developed economies of Western Europe. Individuals and firms changed their patterns of production and consumption through emigration, trade, tourism and foreign investment, leading to a structural transformation. Simultaneously, the increasing complexity of a growing economy raised new technical and organisational challenges, stimulating the formation of modern professional and management teams [36]. The Estado Novo regime maintained a policy of corporativism that resulted in the placement of a large part of the Portuguese economy in the hands of a number of strong conglomerates. For example, during the period 1936–1967, there was a corporative reorganisation of the industry by the Estado Novo regime supported by decree-law DL 23968/34 which included protectionist measures known as the 'cod campaign', to be discussed further below. This campaign consisted of government regulations and free access to fishing grounds, with the aim to increase fish production, stimulate naval construction as well as fish processing, drying in particular, and to reduce imports. Imports were reduced and government regulations stipulated that it was compulsory to purchase a certain amount of domestically produced cod, and at the same time consumption was promoted through a policy of low fixed prices [20]. During the period 1959–1973 the growth rate of Portuguese merchandise exports was notable – 11% per annum. According to Neves [50], this 'Golden Age' could be attributed to several reasons: the interest rate was low (2.5% in the 1965–70 period), leading to cheap capital for investments; emigration and military

Fig. 1. GDP per capita 1960–2012. Source: Pordata [55].

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Fig. 2. GDP per capita – percentage change year on year. Source: Pordata [55].

enrolment prevented unemployment from rising; and the exchange rate policy favoured the escudo currency in nominal terms. Silva [60] points out that even after World War II the Estado Novo maintained the imperial perspective of economic 'isolationism'. As part of this, in 1949 the “Fundo de Fomento de Exportações” was created, providing financial incentives to export mainly to African and Asian colonies, with an emphasis on “traditional products”. Soon after joining the EFTA, President Salazar agreed to a certain liberalisation of trade, resulting in 75% of exports to going to other EFTA countries as well as countries of the European Economic Community (EEC) and the OECD [48]. In 1960 the bulk of exports was accounted for by a few products – canned fish, raw and manufactured cork, cotton textiles and wine. In the early 1970s (before the 1974 military coup), Portugal's export list reflected significant product diversification, including both consumer and capital goods. Several branches of Portuguese industry became export-oriented, and in 1973 over one-fifth of Portuguese manufactured output was exported. Economic growth slowed down after 1974, not only due to the collapse of the protected trade with the overseas territories as these regained independence but also due to the political and economic instability that followed the arrival of democracy and also due to lower foreign demand caused by the first “oil shock” and the subsequent recession. The post Carnation Revolution period was characterised by chaos and negative economic growth as industries were nationalised, skilled workers emigrated and the negative effects of the decoupling of Portugal from its former territories were felt. Heavy industry came to an abrupt halt. Basically, all sectors of the economy went into free fall [5,37]. Despite foreign direct investment being legally exempt from nationalisation, many firms under foreign control dramatically reduced their investments also because of the imposition of very restrictive labour laws. This “reverse” macroeconomic policy gave up the former objectives of price stability and budget equilibrium, and the role of the state in the economy increased dramatically [17]. During most of the Estado Novo period Portugal was more focused on African and Asian overseas territories than on Europe [54]. Despite joining EFTA in 1959, signing an agreement with the EEC in 1972, and by that time being member also of other international bodies such as OECD, NATO, IMF and the World Bank, the entanglement with the colonial war in Africa since 1961 greatly influenced Portugal's low profile role in the international arena [11]. The opening occurred just after the April 1974 Revolution, when the newly established democratic regime set about to create stronger economic ties with western countries [58]. However, the regime change in Portugal also led to an overnight change from being a Western European country with the highest growth rate in the region to the one with the lowest – in fact it experienced several years of zero or negative growth from 1974 to

1984 [9,41]. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was called to intervene twice during this period, the first in 1977 and the second time in 1983. The slowdown in the economic growth was amplified by the mass emigration of skilled workers and entrepreneurs due to political intimidation, and the costs of accommodating in Portugal thousands of refugees from the former overseas territories in Africa (mostly from Portuguese Angola and Mozambique) and Portuguese Timor – the retornados. During the Colonial War (1961–1974), a lot of men emigrated or went to the long distance fishing fleet to avoid being drafted into the army and came back after the establishment of democracy [27]. The total number of refugees who arrived in Portugal from May 1974 to the end of the 1970s is not clear: estimates range from 500,000 to one million (Time Magazine, Monday, 7 July 1975; [12]). The development in population is highlighted in Fig. 3. The retornados increased the Portuguese labour force by roughly 10% in just a few years and had a strong adverse effect on Portuguese wages. As a result, between 1973 and 1986, Portuguese real per capita income moved apart from the European core at a rate that oscillated around 0.5% per annum. From 1986 onwards, the economic growth trend accelerated after Portugal's accession to the EEC which saw a wave of institutional reform, an ambitious agenda of economic liberalisation and the privatisation of several of Portugal's major companies. Membership of the European Community resulted in increased trade ties and an inflow of funds by the European Union to improve the country's infrastructure. By the early 1990s Portugal was praised for its economic success [49] and for its speed of convergence [7]. However, acceleration of the economic growth was short-lived. After a recession in 1993, the economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.3%, well above EU averages, but well behind the growth of the Portuguese economy before the military coup of 1974. In the late 1980s, the Portuguese economy began to display several problems, especially with regards to productivity, as well as substantial fiscal and external imbalances. In the following decade the Portuguese economy stagnated, even though Portugal joined the European Monetary Union (EMU) in January 1999. According to Mateus [44], the adhesion to the EMU led to the imposition of certain macroeconomic restrictions on the Portuguese economy. The relatively recent EMU framework involved a strong common currency and budget rigour, which was substantially different from the one at the accession time. The major consequences of following the EMU framework are that instead of allowing a national monetary policy, including an exchange rate policy, the Portuguese economy needs to have higher productivity and aim at a lower inflation rate. In the 2000s, the Czech Republic, Greece, Malta and Slovenia overtook Portugal in terms of GDP per capita. The global financial

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Fig. 3. Population 1950–2011. Source: OECD.

crisis of 2007 amplified the situation. GDP per capita growth in 2008, at 1.3%, was the lowest not just in the European Union, but in the entire Europe. Unemployment increased from about 270,000 in 2002 to about 450,000 in 2007, reaching about 820,000 in the first trimester of 2012 [30]. As shown in this section, it is possible to link economic trends in Portugal with major historical events. It is also possible to identify those historical events that caused relevant changes in the trends themselves.

3. Analysis of Portuguese landings 1960–2011 Annual Portuguese fish landings for the period 1961–2007 are presented in Fig. 4. Landings increased from 502,000 t in 1961 to a peak of 578,000 t in 1964, the highest quantity recorded. Subsequently landings were in decline but with a peak of 563,000 t in 1967. At this time the catch of cod (Gadus morhua) was the priority. It resulted from a political initiative aimed at preventing shortages in food supply. To that end, as referred to above, the 'cod campaign', which occurred between 1934 and 1967, was developed. The “campaign” consisted of the enlargement and modernisation of the fleet (from 51 luggers almost all powered by sail to 65 vessels powered by onboard engines including 32 trawlers). The cod production rose immensely during this period [20]. While in 1934 the domestic production of cod was only 16% of cod consumption (around 8,000 t were produced out of a total consumption of 51,000 t), by 1966 that figure has risen to 82% (around 112,000 t were produced out of a total of 136,000 t) [14]. The success of this policy was mostly attributed to a single man called Henrique Tenreiro, known as the “boss of fisheries”, who developed a charismatic, paternalistic and strong leadership that lasted until the end of the Estado Novo regime. In addition, cod fisheries were also considered a priority subsector because this species had for long been of cultural and social importance that interested the regime at the time. This was not only because it was important in terms of employment, but also as a way to promote propaganda influencing the attitude of the people toward past epic causes (i.e., the long distance fishery was compared to the age of discoveries), so the cod campaign was even considered “the great fishery” [24]. Another peak of 479,000 t occurred in 1973. After this peak, there was a substantial drop in landings starting in 1974. Several

Fig. 4. Portuguese fish landings 1961–2011. Tonnes. Source: FAO Global Capture Production. 〈http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/glo bal-capture-production/en〉 accessed 12/04/2013.

reasons explain this. Not only the internal developments, mostly related to consequences of the Revolution in terms of economic conditions and demography, but also others. Those reasons were related to circumstances that changed fisheries for good, such as: fish scarcity due to overexploitation felt worldwide since the late 1960s, access restrictions to the waters of former colonies, the introduction of 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones of coastal countries [20], the abrupt end of direct state support to fisheries [38], and the oil shocks during the 1970s that greatly affected the profitability of distant water fishing because of substantial fuel price increases [31]. In the following years Portuguese landings flattened out at an annual level of around 250,000 t for the period 1978–1983. In 1986, the year Portugal joined the European Union, there was a substantial increase in harvest to 407,000 t, after which there was a gradual decline to a bottom level of 198,000 t in 2000. From the 1970s until November 1999 the Moroccan coast appeared as an alternative to the limitations imposed on DWFSs. The European Community signed agreements permitting European fleets to fish in Moroccan waters, and Portugal took advantage of this when it became a member of the then EEC [51]. The accession to the EEC allowed Portugal to reacquire some access to foreign fishing grounds under European agreements signed with third countries, which in turn caused an occasional increase in fish landings, despite their overall decreasing trend [47]. Other benefits from joining the EEC included the possibility to get funding to start the decommissioning of old and obsolete

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fishing vessels and to modernise vessels [63]. The entry to the EEC and the limitations on distant water fishing led to a change in the Portuguese fleet structure. The distant water fleet practically disappeared, while local and coastal fleets, despite being reduced drastically, got the opportunity to be renewed [64]. Portuguese cod catches increased from about 19,000 t in 1985 to 47,000 t in 1986, to be reduced to 23,000 t in 1987. One explanation for this rise and subsequent drop is that after Greenland leaving the then EEC in 1985 and Spain and Portugal joining in 1986, the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) faced a challenge concerning size and structure of the EEC's fleet capacity and had to adapt to this new situation. One particularity of this situation was the cod fishery, available off the Greenland coast in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (NAFO) Convention Area and targeted by Spanish and Portuguese fleets [28]. Another explanation may be related to an overestimation of the exploitable biomass of Northern cod in 1985 [29]. The perception of stock size overestimation only occurred in 1988 [4]. The increase in landings in 1986 was mainly due to the negotiation process between the then EEC and third parties. According to Lane [35], in the period 1984– 94, most of the cod stock harvested in the Grand Banks NAFO Regulatory Area (NRA) was in decline and Portugal was somehow forced to a shift in catches. Whereas cod was the species traditionally and almost exclusively targeted in this area, this changed soon after 1986 to multispecies catches while redfish (Sebastes spp.) became the targeted species during the 1990s and early 2000s. Karagiannakos [32] refers to recommended cod Total Allowable Catch Quotas (TACs) following a downward sloping pattern from the 1983 level (240,000 t) to 1993 (101,000 t). The increase of 40,000 t in the TAC for cod in 1986 probably resulted from the accession of Spain and Portugal to the EEC. In 1993 Portugal got access for the first time to a cod quota of 3,260 t within the Norwegian EEZ under the auspices of an EU agreement [47]. In recent years, overall fish catches have increased, with 256,000 t recorded for 2007, subsequently declining to 216,000 t in 2011. The increase may be related to the Fisheries Partnership Agreement (FPA) that was signed in 2006 between the EU and the Kingdom of Morocco, whereby four year fishing licenses were awarded to a number of European vessels, including Portuguese ones [45]. The 10 species caught in terms of the greatest volume since 1960 were analysed to observe trends during the period up to 2011 (Fig. 5). Without exception, there is an overall decline in volume of the 10 most important fish species caught relative to the 1960

Fig. 5. Greatest 10 fish species of Portuguese landings in 1960 - Trends in volume caught over time 1960–2011 (tonnes). Source: FAO [22].

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level. Valério [67] shows that in terms of fisheries output as share of GDP, the decreasing trend was not evident until 1967; however, this trend subsequently became stronger, with the exception of 1986–87 due to the new fisheries agreements as a result of the Portuguese accession to the EEC. The decreasing trends in volume and also in trophic level are explained in a study dby Baeta et al. [2], who analysed a time series of fisheries production from 1970 to 2006. They found that fish caught in Portugal over time tended to be harvested at lower trophic levels, and consequently average retail price decreased due to lower average weight and harvest of less valuable species. Notwithstanding this, they also found that fish caught in the archipelagos of the Azores and Madeira remained at similar trophic levels, showing higher catch and stock sustainability. As already discussed, Portugal was traditionally a DWFS. The Portuguese long distance fleet operated mainly in the North and Southeast Atlantic, targeting mainly cod (G. morhua) and hake (Merluccius spp.), respectively [43]. However, with the advent of the 200 mile EEZs by coastal states in the latter part of the 1970s, countries with distant water fleets such as Portugal suffered from this change [63]. Due to the combined effects of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction and the end of international open access fisheries, the oil shock and the aftermath of the Revolution, the fishing sector faced tremendous difficulties [13]. The International Commission for South East Atlantic Fisheries (ICSEAF), responsible for fisheries management in the south east Atlantic, imposed several restrictions on access to fishing, in particular when Namibia became independent in 1990. At that time Portugal lost its hake quota of 30,000 t in Namibian waters [47]. It was the distant water operations that explain why, in 1960, Atlantic cod was the most important species for Portuguese fishermen with a volume of 186,000 t [16]. Landings increased to a peak of 231,000 t in 1963. After a dip, landings increased to 238,000 t in 1967, the highest level ever recorded. Even the following year after the Portuguese reported catch in the NAFO area was quite high in comparison with other fleets [4]. Subsequently landings were in decline. Landings were more than halved from 71,000 t in 1976 to 32,000 t in 1977, the year that saw the introduction of Exclusive Economic Zones, and then to 20,000 t in 1978. As a consequence of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction, the activities of DWFSs in the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones of coastal states were severely curtailed [47,10]. After 1987, cod landings declined further, with only 6,400 t recorded for 2011. Thus, essentially Portugal is no longer a DWFS. European pilchard, commonly known as sardine (Sardina pilchardus), was the second most important species with 139,000 t harvested in 1960, after a dip increasing to a peak of 164,000 t in 1964. After another dip, annual harvest was in the range 75-114,000 t for the period 1972–96. Subsequently there were ups and downs; in recent years the harvest declined from 92,000 t in 2007 to 57,000 t in 2011. Sardine has also been very important to the Portuguese fishing sector, but no specific campaign was addressed to this species during the Estado Novo period. The reasons may be related to the geographical distribution of the species (it is a coastal stock) and the main driving force of this sub-sector was the commercial interests of the fishing (canning) industry [24]. In 1960, cod represented 35–40% of total landings, European pilchard 25–30%, with all other species together representing the remaining 30–40%. Even facing a decreasing trend in catches, European pilchard became the main landed species in the last three decades overtaking cod since 1976. Similar patterns of decline to cod are seen in other species that were important in the 1960s. Table 1 lists the 10 most important species in 2011. Combined they represented 72% of total harvest, with European pilchard

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Table 1 Catches of the 10 Most Important Species in 2011. Tonnes. Source: FAO Fishstat. Species

Quantity (tonnes)

European pilchard (sardine) 57,286 Chub mackerel 33,237 Blue shark 14,075 Atlantic horse mackerel 10,955 Atlantic redfishes nei 10,025 Common octopus 7199 Bigeye tuna 7108 Atlantic cod 6409 Blue jack mackerel 5078 Black scabbardfish 4861 Total 156,233

(S. pilchardus) alone representing 27% followed by chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) on about 15%. Of the 10 most important species caught in 1960, four were also among the 10 largest species in 2011: European pilchard (S. pilchardus), Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) and Atlantic cod (G. morhua). Quantities harvested are, however, in all cases substantially lower.

Fig. 6. Total volume (tonnes) of Portuguese fish and fish product imports and exports 1961–2007. Source: FAO Fisheries production and Trade 1976–2009 〈http://www.fao.org/fish ery/statistics/global-commodities-production/en〉.

4. Imports and exports of Portuguese fish products 4.1. Aggregate imports and exports Although there were substantial variations from year to year, import quantity was on an upward trend from 117,000 t in 1961 to 223,000 t in 1972 (Fig. 6). The increase commenced in 1967 and was mainly due to the domestic appeal of consumption of frozen fish. At the same time measures to liberalise imports and the retail price of cod within the EFTA agreement were introduced [20]. In 1973, imports fell by more than 50% to 111,000 t and remained at a depressed level up to 1982. In 1983 imports were 225,000 t, roughly the double of the 1982 level, and have exhibited an increasing trend ever since to 625,000 t in 2007. The export volume in 1961 was 121,000 t, increasing to 140,000 t in 1965. Subsequently it declined to 83,000 t in 1973. There was a marked drop to 54,000 t in 1974–75; then exports increased in 1976 starting a positive trend. In 2007, exports amounted to 196,000 t. Data on value of imports and exports are only available from 1976 onwards. Aggregate data are presented in Fig. 7. The total value of fish and fish product imports to Portugal has shown a significant increase during the period 1976–2009, from $110 million in 1976 to a peak of $1,889 million in 2008, falling to $1,585 in 2009 (Fig. 7). Although there has been a positive trend throughout the period, there have been fluctuations from year to year. The value of exports doubled from $65 million in 1976 to $130 million in 1980. After falling to $94 million in 1983–84, the trend has been positive with a peak export value of $735 million in 2008, falling to $631 million in 2009. It is noteworthy that while net imports were close to zero in 1976–80, they have increased over time and represented $954 million in 2009. In other words, Portugal has become more and more dependent on imports for its fish consumption. The macroeconomic developments in Portugal that were analysed in section one largely explain the development in imports and exports in the 1970s. During the Estado Novo regime only the free access to fish resources (mare liberum) was able to provide an adequate supply of fish [26]. However, that concept eventually

Fig. 7. Total value (1000 US$) of Portuguese fish and fish products imports and exports 1976–2009. Source: [22].

became incompatible with coastal state jurisdiction of 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones [23]. Prior to the 1974 Revolution, economic policies were characterised by progressive liberalisation and public finances were viewed as highly sustainable, with public debt representing a very small fraction of GDP. In the period after the Revolution (1974 to 1979), there were dramatic changes in the economy as outlined above [19]. In the fisheries sector, Portugal agreed to the concept of Exclusive Economic Zone in 1974 and started to reallocate the fishing industry to the resources confined within the national boundaries [26]. Thus, due to political instability, economic growth and investment were drastically reduced (Fig. 2). Imports and exports declined rapidly [49]. Policy priorities changed, and the sustainability of public finances was considered less important [1]. Trade policies were protectionist and several new measures were introduced. In 1976 around 85% of imported products were taxed by specific duties, and the tariff rates on many products doubled (tariffs on EEC manufactured goods decreased while those from third countries remained high). Measures imposed included import deposits, import surcharges with a high incidence in consumer goods, and quotas for consumer goods that were fixed annually in the local currency (escudo). The restrictive effect of trade led to a currency devaluation [19]. The revolutionary period also led to an increase in labour costs and a reduction in exports, while imports decreased as a result of the postponement of investment decisions due to economic uncertainty [18].

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4.2. Imports The top 10 import products are illustrated in Fig. 8. As highlighted in Section 4, while Portugal was a DWFS, cod was the most important species in terms of landings. After 1976, the cod fisheries faced unprecedented restrictions due to Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction, although with a temporary increase in quotas as a result of the adhesion to the EEC [14]. As a consequence of greatly diminished access to this resource, imports have increased [13]. Sousa [62] points out that the peak in aggregated cod imports was in 1996 (127,000 t). Afterwards there was a decrease in cod imports as a result of reduced harvests of the species due to overexploitation and the consequent price increase that occurred. In 2009, frozen Atlantic cod (G. morhua) (37,000 t), salted cod (25,000 t), jack and horse mackerels (Trachurus spp.) (18,000 t), and salted & dried cod (18,000 t) were the four most important import products. Imports of frozen cod were negligible up to 1990. Imports of salted cod started in 1983 with a quantity of 54,000 t; this has remained at a high level although it has decreased in recent years.

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Frozen cod is salted and dried in Portugal while salted cod is dried; thus, the market for salted & dried cod has changed over time. According to Garrido [25], Portugal used to be the largest market of salted and dried cod in the world (with a production of almost 60,000 t and imports of over 25,000 t in 1958). The same author adds that despite cod being the second major import during the Estado Novo (just below grain cereals), due to its high price cod was not accessible to the working classes who depended mostly of the abundant and cheap sardine. The traditional way of consuming cod (i.e., salted and dried) has been maintained to the present both in Portugal and the Portugues diaspora and is commonly referred in literature and folk culture [61]. Imports of frozen cod have increased, particularly after 2000. This is because processors of salted & dried products import frozen cod for further processing for the domestic markets as well as exports [20]. Overall there has been a steady rise in the import value of the most important fish products until 2009 (Fig. 9). The increase in

Fig. 8. Imports of Main Fish Products 1976–2009. Tonnes.

Fig. 9. Most Important Fish Products in Terms of Import Value 1976–2009. $‘000.

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the diversification of imports that started in the late 1980s is also noticeable. Various product forms of cod are most important in terms of value. The 2009 import value of cod, salted or in brine, represented $139 million. This was followed by salted & dried cod with import value of $132 million and frozen Atlantic cod at $112 million. Combined these product forms represented 24% of import value in 2009. While the import value for cod, salted or in brine, may have levelled off, there is an upward trend for the other two product forms although substantial annual variations are noted. After cod, follow two product forms of frozen shrimps and prawns with respective import values of $84 and $74 million in 2009.

4.3. Exports European sardine (S. pilchardus), fresh or frozen, was the most important export commodity in 2009 with exports of 12,030 t (Fig. 10). Despite a crisis in terms of sardine recruitment in the early 1990s [65], it is interesting to note that exports of this product were negligible at the beginning of the period under consideration and really only started picking up after the early 1990s. Canned sardine (S. pilchardus, prepared or preserved in oil), showed the opposite trend: in 1976, this was the most important export product with more than 28,000 t, increasing to 34–35,000 t in the following years. In 1988, exports were still 22,000 t, however, they dropped to zero in 1989. Of the 10 most important export products in terms of quantity, four (solubles from fish; European sardines S. pilchardus, prepared or preserved; frozen mackerels Trachurus spp.; frozen octopus – Octopus spp. and Eledone spp.) were not exported at all in 1976; in addition, only 10 t of salted and dried cod G. morhua were exported at that time. In terms of value, salted & dried cod was most important with an export value of $ 59.9 million in 2009, followed by prepared or preserved European sardine at $47.6 million (Fig. 11). Four of the 10 most important products in 2009 were not exported at all in 1976 (prepared or preserved European sardine; frozen shrimps and prawns; frozen octopus; not frozen shrimps and prawns). In addition, exports of salted & dried cod as well as fresh or chilled

European sardine were negligible in 1976 with export values of $23,000 and $62,000, respectively.

5. Portuguese fish and fish products consumption Portugal has the highest per capita fish consumption in Europe and one of the highest in the world. Fig. 12 shows annual per capita fish consumption (kg/capital) for 1961–2009 period. It is based on a food balance sheet of fish and fishery products in live weight. In 1961, fish consumption stood at 55.7 kg/capita. It remained at about this level until increasing to a peak of 71.4 kg in 1967, the highest level ever recorded. Prior to the revolution, in 1973–74, fish consumption represented 52 kg/person. It subsequently fell dramatically to a nadir of 25.4 kg in 1979. After flattening out, fish consumption started increasing and reached 54.8 kg in 1985, i.e., the pre-revolution level was restored after 11 years. Fish consumption has ever since been at a high level. For the last three years, 2007–09, consumption has been about 62 kg/ capita. York and Gossard [69] suggest that nations experiencing economic development have the propensity to expand fish consumption; however, this also depends on the cultural background and the geographic location of the nation. The authors point out that cultural preferences derived from the historical availability of resources may persist even when there is local scarcity, i.e., trade and globalisation ease supply. The EU is increasingly dependent on fish imports (with Portugal the country with the highest per capita consumption) and deals with this issue through establishing bilateral fisheries agreements under the Common Fisheries Policy [66] as well as through trade policies.

6. Summary The Portuguese economy in general, and the fisheries sector in particular, has undergone tremendous changes in the last half century. Overall the supply of fish into the Portuguese market has shown substantial change over the past 50 years. Moreover, the origin of this supply has changed markedly. Nevertheless, it is quite remarkable that, despite all these changes, aggregate supply

Fig. 10. The 10 Most Important Portuguese Fish Product Exports 1976–2009. Tonnes.

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Fig. 11. The 10 Most Important Portuguese Fish Product Exports 1976–2009 in Terms of Value. $ ‘000.

Fig. 12. Per capita supply (kg) 1961–2009.

at the end of the 50 year period under consideration is fairly similar to what it was at the outset. Although domestic fish landings peaked at 578,000 t in 1964 as a result of abundant fish resources, free access to fisheries and the 'cod campaign' promoted by the Estado Novo regime, there were indications of a declining trend soon afterwards. After a smaller peak of 479,000 t in 1973, there was a substantial reduction in landings starting in 1974, the year of the Revolution, bottoming out at an annual level of around 250,000 t. Landings remained at a lower level ever since, due to international events and external shocks such as reduced access to fish resources for DWFSs and the oil crisis but also for domestic reasons (the post-revolution crisis). An exception occurred in 1986, the year Portugal joined the EEC due to new fishing and trade agreements with third countries through the EEC. Within the Community, the CFP has been established to determine access to as well as the sharing of fisheries resources. In 2011, landings of 216,000 t were recorded. As for trade, imports fell by more than 50% in 1973 to 111,000 t and remained at a low level up to 1982. Despite the increase in population size due to the retornados, this figure shows the decrease in fish consumption because of difficult economic times. Subsequently, due to several adjustments such as the disappearance of the distant water fishing fleet, the shrinking of the domestic fleets and increasing demand for fish products, imports

increased reaching 625,000 t in 2007. Exports were also reduced in the early and mid 1970s as a consequence of a reduction in productio. Exports later increased, although at a much lower rate than imports. The overall supply of fish (in tonnage) into Portugal, with a crude net volume measured as domestic landings þ exports – imports was around 500,000 t annually in the early 1960s, reaching a peak of 627,000 t in 1967. For reasons explained above, it subsequently fell to a bottom level of 246,000 t in 1979. By the mid 1980s, supply started increasing. In 2007, total supply was estimated at 655,000 t, the highest level ever recorded. As this article clearly highlights, there have been substantial changes also in fish trade, both regarding fish imports and exports and, implicitly, domestic processing. As a consequence, the composition of the market has changed. This is an interesting topic for further research.

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