- Email: [email protected]
Application of Computer Aided Mixture Design in Paints and Coatings
,DQ'DYLG/RFNKDUW%RJOHDQG0LFKDHO)DLUZHDWKHU (GLWRUV 3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHQG(XURSHDQ 6\PSRVLXPRQ&RPSXWHU$LGHG3URFHVV(QJLQHHULQJ-XQH/RQGRQ (OVHYLHU%9$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ 3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV (PHUVRQ%9HQFHVODXDE3HGUR$3HVVRD)LOKRE*DOR$&/H5RX[E D
2[LWHQR6$,QGH&RPpUFLR$YHQLGDGDV,QG~VWULDV 0DXi%UD]LO 'HSDUWPHQWRI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ3RO\WHFKQLF6FKRRORIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR 3DXOR$YHQLGD3URIHVVRU/LQHX3UHVWHV 6mR3DXOR%UD]LO E
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
,QWURGXFWLRQ ,QUHFHQW\HDUVWKHUHIRUPXODWLRQRIVROYHQWV\VWHPVKDVJDLQHGVWUHQJWKDQGWKHUHDUH WKUHH PDLQ UHDVRQV IRU WKDW FRVW UHGXFWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH LPSURYHPHQW DQG VHDUFK IRU OHVV DJJUHVVLYH VROYHQWV WR KXPDQV DQG HQYLURQPHQW 7KH SUREOHP LV WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWDOZRUNE\WULDODQGHUURUWRGHWHUPLQHDQDSSURSULDWHVROYHQWRUDPL[WXUHLV H[KDXVWLQJWLPHFRQVXPLQJDQGH[SHQVLYHZKHUHDVDWRRO VRIWZDUH WKDWFRXOGUHGXFH WLPHDQGFRVWRIZRUNZRXOGEHRIDIXQGDPHQWDOLPSRUWDQFH :DOVKDP HW DO IRFXVHG DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH IDFW WKDW ZKHQ IRUPXODWLQJ D VROYHQW PL[WXUH LW LV QRW RQO\ QHFHVVDU\ WR REWDLQ DQ DGHTXDWH UDWH RI HYDSRUDWLRQ EXW DOVR WR PHHWWKHDSSOLFDWLRQZLWK VXLWDEOHSDUDPHWHUV RI VROXELOLW\ DQG YLVFRVLW\ IRUZKLFKWKH
588
(%9HQFHVODXHWDO
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
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV
589
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
)LJXUHD 7RWDOPL[WXUHHYDSRUDWLRQFXUYH E 3UHGLFWHGFRPSRVLWLRQFXUYHRIWKHHYDSRUDWHG PL[WXUH
$IWHU H[WHQVLYH VWXG\ RI VHYHUDO PL[WXUHV DQG FRPSDULQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO HYDSRUDWLRQ UHVXOWV ZH IRXQG WKDW WKRVH GLIIHUHQW HYDSRUDWLRQ PL[WXUH PRGHOVKDYHSHFXOLDULWLHV7KLVPHDQVWKDWHDFKPRGHOLVPRUHVXLWDEOHIRUFHUWDLQW\SHV RI VROYHQWV DQG PL[WXUHV 7KH VDPH KDSSHQV ZKHQ XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW DFWLYLW\ FRHIILFLHQW
590
(%9HQFHVODXHWDO
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
&RPSRVLWLRQ Z
&RVW 8686
6ROYHQW$
6ROYHQW%
6ROYHQW&
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
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV
591
7DEOH$OWHUQDWLYHVROYHQWVWKHLUSULFHVDQGWKHRSWLPL]HGVROXWLRQ 6ROYHQW
&RVW 8686
2SWLPL]HG6ROYHQW0L[WXUH Z
6ROYHQW'
6ROYHQW(
6ROYHQW)
6ROYHQW*
6ROYHQW+
6ROYHQW,
6ROYHQW-
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
&RQFOXVLRQV 7KHHYDSRUDWLRQPRGHOVRISXUHVROYHQWVDQGLWVPL[WXUHVFDQEHXVHGVDWLVIDFWRULO\,Q JHQHUDO PL[WXUH PRGHOV KDYH DFFHSWDEOH HUURUV RI WKH VDPH PDJQLWXGH DV REVHUYHG H[SHULPHQWDOO\7KH1/3XVHGWRFDOFXODWHVROYHQWRSWLPDOPL[WXUHWKURXJKWKH&$0E' ZDV DQ LPSRUWDQW WRRO WR GDLO\ VROYHQW UHSODFHPHQW XVH SURYLGLQJ WLPH DQG UHVRXUFHV VDYLQJV,QDGGLWLRQWKHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQFDQEHUHSODFHGE\RWKHUIXQFWLRQVUHODWHGWR WKHVROYHQWKD]DUGRXVWRKXPDQVDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWVXFKDV92&9RODWLOH2UJDQLF &RPSRXQGSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW7/97KUHVKROG/LPLW9DOXHELRGHJUDGDELOLW\HWF %RWKWKHHYDSRUDWLRQDQGRSWLPL]DWLRQPRGHOVDUHWRROVWKDWIDFLOLWDWHDQGDFFHOHUDWHWKH GHYHORSPHQWSURFHVVIRUWKHPDUNHWRISDLQWVDQGFRDWLQJV
5HIHUHQFHV $PHULFDQ6RFLHW\IRU7HVWLQJDQG0DWHULDOV $670' 6WDQGDUG7HVW0HWKRGVIRU (YDSRUDWLRQ5DWHVRI9RODWLOH/LTXLGVE\6KHOO7KLQ)LOP(YDSRURPHWHU &XVVOHU(/ 0RJJULGH*'&KHPLFDO3URGXFW'HVLJQ86$ &DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 'LOORQ3: $SSOLFDWLRQRIFULWLFDOUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\DQHYDSRUDWLRQDQDORJRID]HRWURS\ WRWKHGU\LQJRIZDWHUERUQHFRDWLQJV-RXUQDORI&RDWLQJV7HFKQRORJ\Y QS *DQL5&RPSXWHUDLGHGPHWKRGVDQGWRROVIRUFKHPLFDOSURGXFWGHVLJQ&KHP(QJQJ 5HV'HVYS +DQVHQ&0\HDUVZLWKVROXELOLW\SDUDPHWHUV±SDVWDQGIXWXUH3URJLQ2UJ&RDWY S 5RFNOLQ$/ %RQQHU'& $FRPSXWHUPHWKRGIRUSUHGLFWLQJHYDSRUDWLRQRI PXOWLFRPSRQHQWDTXHRXVVROYHQWEOHQGVDWDQ\KXPLGLW\-&RDW7HFKYQS 6WUDWD-- 'LOORQ3: 6HPS5+ (YDSRUDWLRQRIRUJDQLFFRVROYHQWVIURPZDWHU ERUQHIRUPXODWLRQV-&RDW7HFKYQS :DOVKDP-*(GZDUGV*' $PRGHORIHYDSRUDWLRQIURPVROYHQWEOHQGV-3DLQW 7HFKYQS
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ 3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV (PHUVRQ%9HQFHVODXDE3HGUR$3HVVRD)LOKRE*DOR$&/H5RX[E D
2[LWHQR6$,QGH&RPpUFLR$YHQLGDGDV,QG~VWULDV 0DXi%UD]LO 'HSDUWPHQWRI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ3RO\WHFKQLF6FKRRORIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR 3DXOR$YHQLGD3URIHVVRU/LQHX3UHVWHV 6mR3DXOR%UD]LO E
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
,QWURGXFWLRQ ,QUHFHQW\HDUVWKHUHIRUPXODWLRQRIVROYHQWV\VWHPVKDVJDLQHGVWUHQJWKDQGWKHUHDUH WKUHH PDLQ UHDVRQV IRU WKDW FRVW UHGXFWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH LPSURYHPHQW DQG VHDUFK IRU OHVV DJJUHVVLYH VROYHQWV WR KXPDQV DQG HQYLURQPHQW 7KH SUREOHP LV WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWDOZRUNE\WULDODQGHUURUWRGHWHUPLQHDQDSSURSULDWHVROYHQWRUDPL[WXUHLV H[KDXVWLQJWLPHFRQVXPLQJDQGH[SHQVLYHZKHUHDVDWRRO VRIWZDUH WKDWFRXOGUHGXFH WLPHDQGFRVWRIZRUNZRXOGEHRIDIXQGDPHQWDOLPSRUWDQFH :DOVKDP HW DO IRFXVHG DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH IDFW WKDW ZKHQ IRUPXODWLQJ D VROYHQW PL[WXUH LW LV QRW RQO\ QHFHVVDU\ WR REWDLQ DQ DGHTXDWH UDWH RI HYDSRUDWLRQ EXW DOVR WR PHHWWKHDSSOLFDWLRQZLWK VXLWDEOHSDUDPHWHUV RI VROXELOLW\ DQG YLVFRVLW\ IRUZKLFKWKH
588
(%9HQFHVODXHWDO
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
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV
589
PL[WXUHV DUH WKHUHIRUH LPSRUWDQW WR ZULWH WKH FRQVWUDLQW HTXDWLRQV DQG LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ WKHRSWLPL]DWLRQPRGHO7KHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHSURSRVHGRSWLPL]DWLRQVROXWLRQZDVEXLOWDV D 1RQOLQHDU 3URJUDPPLQJ 1/3 SUREOHP KDYLQJ WKH PL[WXUH FRVW DV WKH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ YROXPH GHQVLW\ DQG VROXELOLW\ SDUDPHWHUV DV OLQHDU FRQVWUDLQWV DQG WKH PL[WXUH HYDSRUDWLRQ UDWH DV WKH QRQOLQHDU FRQVWUDLQW 7KHUH KDYH EHHQ DOVR XVHG FRPSRVLWLRQDOFRQVWUDLQWV)RUWKHSUREOHPSUHVHQWHGWKHRSWLPL]DWLRQYDULDEOHVDUHWKH QXPEHURIVROYHQWVDQGWKHPL[WXUHFRPSRVLWLRQ
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
)LJXUHD 7RWDOPL[WXUHHYDSRUDWLRQFXUYH E 3UHGLFWHGFRPSRVLWLRQFXUYHRIWKHHYDSRUDWHG PL[WXUH
$IWHU H[WHQVLYH VWXG\ RI VHYHUDO PL[WXUHV DQG FRPSDULQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO HYDSRUDWLRQ UHVXOWV ZH IRXQG WKDW WKRVH GLIIHUHQW HYDSRUDWLRQ PL[WXUH PRGHOVKDYHSHFXOLDULWLHV7KLVPHDQVWKDWHDFKPRGHOLVPRUHVXLWDEOHIRUFHUWDLQW\SHV RI VROYHQWV DQG PL[WXUHV 7KH VDPH KDSSHQV ZKHQ XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW DFWLYLW\ FRHIILFLHQW
590
(%9HQFHVODXHWDO
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
&RPSRVLWLRQ Z
&RVW 8686
6ROYHQW$
6ROYHQW%
6ROYHQW&
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
$SSOLFDWLRQRI&RPSXWHU$LGHG0L[WXUH'HVLJQLQ3DLQWVDQG&RDWLQJV
591
7DEOH$OWHUQDWLYHVROYHQWVWKHLUSULFHVDQGWKHRSWLPL]HGVROXWLRQ 6ROYHQW
&RVW 8686
2SWLPL]HG6ROYHQW0L[WXUH Z
6ROYHQW'
6ROYHQW(
6ROYHQW)
6ROYHQW*
6ROYHQW+
6ROYHQW,
6ROYHQW-
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
5HIHUHQFHV $PHULFDQ6RFLHW\IRU7HVWLQJDQG0DWHULDOV $670' 6WDQGDUG7HVW0HWKRGVIRU (YDSRUDWLRQ5DWHVRI9RODWLOH/LTXLGVE\6KHOO7KLQ)LOP(YDSRURPHWHU &XVVOHU(/ 0RJJULGH*'&KHPLFDO3URGXFW'HVLJQ86$ &DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 'LOORQ3: $SSOLFDWLRQRIFULWLFDOUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\DQHYDSRUDWLRQDQDORJRID]HRWURS\ WRWKHGU\LQJRIZDWHUERUQHFRDWLQJV-RXUQDORI&RDWLQJV7HFKQRORJ\Y QS *DQL5&RPSXWHUDLGHGPHWKRGVDQGWRROVIRUFKHPLFDOSURGXFWGHVLJQ&KHP(QJQJ 5HV'HVYS +DQVHQ&0\HDUVZLWKVROXELOLW\SDUDPHWHUV±SDVWDQGIXWXUH3URJLQ2UJ&RDWY S 5RFNOLQ$/ %RQQHU'& $FRPSXWHUPHWKRGIRUSUHGLFWLQJHYDSRUDWLRQRI PXOWLFRPSRQHQWDTXHRXVVROYHQWEOHQGVDWDQ\KXPLGLW\-&RDW7HFKYQS 6WUDWD-- 'LOORQ3: 6HPS5+ (YDSRUDWLRQRIRUJDQLFFRVROYHQWVIURPZDWHU ERUQHIRUPXODWLRQV-&RDW7HFKYQS :DOVKDP-*(GZDUGV*' $PRGHORIHYDSRUDWLRQIURPVROYHQWEOHQGV-3DLQW 7HFKYQS