Coffee and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

Coffee and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

C H A P T E R 41 Coffee and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: An Overview of Epidemiologic Studies Romina di Giuseppe*, Janine Wirth*, Cornelia Weiker...

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C H A P T E R

41

Coffee and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: An Overview of Epidemiologic Studies Romina di Giuseppe*, Janine Wirth*, Cornelia Weikert Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany

List of Abbreviations AMI  Acute myocardial infarction ACS  Acute coronary syndrome BP  Blood pressure CI  Confidence interval CHD  Coronary heart disease CVD  Cardiovascular disease EPIC  European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition HF  Heart failure HR  Hazard ratio MI  Myocardial infarction MSA  Muscle sympathetic nervous activity OR  Odds ratio RR  Relative risk

41.1 INTRODUCTION Coffee, one of the most popular (brewed) beverages, is prepared from the roasted coffee beans of the homonymous plant. Its particular and intense taste, flavor and chemical properties make it the most consumed nonalcoholic drink worldwide. Indeed, coffee is particularly appreciated for its stimulatory effects, mainly attributed to the caffeine content, which may help consumers to feel more alert and awake. In fact, coffee helps us to wake up in the morning or to get regenerated during a break from daily work activities. Also, social rituals make coffee particularly pleasant, for instance, by simply sharing a relaxing cup of “espresso” with friends. But, apart from being the main source of caffeine, coffee also contains several other compounds, some with antioxidant properties,1 such as chlorogenic acid, flavonoids, melanoidins, furans, pyrroles, and maltol, to name a few.2 However, some coffee bean compounds, the diterpenoid cafestol and kahweol, have * Both

been accused of raising serum cholesterol levels, thus posing possible cardiovascular health threats.3 In contrast, being a high source of antioxidant, coffee may contribute to a lower risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), at least in moderate drinkers4 who quickly metabolize caffeine.5 Nevertheless, braced by a long history, coffee has generated a plethora of controversial research findings, particularly when they encompass the cardiovascular diseases (CVDs).4 CVDs are the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in developed countries, with CHD, stroke, and heart failure being the familiar contributors.6 Thus, considering the global burden of CVD along with the popularity of coffee, even small health effects of coffee could have substantial public health impact. With the aim to provide the state-of-the-art compilations of current knowledge of the relationship between coffee and risk of major CVD endpoints, this chapter presents an overview of epidemiologic evidence.

41.2  COFFEE AND CHD RISK It was in 1963 that, for the first time, coffee came into the limelight because of its negative effect on human health.7 In particular, in their pioneering study, Paul and colleagues7 observed a positive relationship between coffee consumption and CHD development. However, although some studies found a link between coffee consumption and CHD risk, later epidemiologic studies did not provide any significant evidence.3 Indeed, a major flaw of these early observational studies is the inadequate adjustment for confounding, as already highlighted by others.4

authors contributed equally to this work.

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FIGURE 41.1  Confounding diagram of smoking on the relationship between coffee drinking and risk of CHD. The figure shows that the relationship between coffee drinking (exposure) and CHD (outcome) is noncausal but mediated by smoking (confounding factor).

As shown in Figure 41.1, smoking—among others— is a clear confounder in the association between coffee drinking and CHD, as heavy drinkers are also more likely to smoke. And, certainly, this figure may also explain the original finding of Paul et al.7 In fact, in more recent studies taking into account potential confounding risk factors, a moderate coffee consumption did not significantly increase the risk of CHD, especially when only prospective studies were reviewed.8 This concept has been recently supported by the findings from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Germany study, in which no significant association was observed between caffeinated coffee consumption and risk of myocardial infarction (MI).9 However, large discrepancies exist when results from case–control studies are compared to those from prospective studies (for a summary of these studies and relative references, please refer to Table 41.1), as confirmed by early10–12 and more recent meta-analyses.13,14 At the beginning of the 1990s, three comprehensive meta-analyses investigating coffee consumption in relation to CHD10–12 were published with conflicting results. Myers et al.10 observed a nonsignificant pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97–1.22) for the association between coffee consumption (4–6 and ≥6 cups/day vs ≥1 cup/day) and CHD, when results from 11 cohort studies were considered. One year later, Greenland et al.11 in a meta-analysis of eight case– control and 14 cohort studies, found an increased CHD risk among coffee consumers drinking 5  cups/day versus nonconsumers, but only in case–control studies. These findings were confirmed in a meta-analysis of eight case–control and 15 cohort studies published by Kawachi et al., where an increased CHD risk was observed in case–control data (pooled odds ratio (OR) 1.63, 95% CI 1.50–1.78; pooled cohort study RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99–1.12).12 Two more recent meta-analyses of, respectively, 1013 and 21 prospective cohort studies14 have indeed confirmed these previous findings. Interestingly, Wu et al.14 instead found a lower CHD risk in both men (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80–0.86) and women

(RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.92) regularly indulging in a moderate coffee consumption (1–3 or 3–4 cups/day).14 As highlighted by Sofi and colleagues,13 the disagreement between case–control and cohort studies could be attributed to systematic errors such as recall bias (i.e., cases are more likely to overreport coffee intake than healthy controls) or to the lack of inclusion of fatal events in case–control studies, which likely contributes to differences among outcome measures.13 However, it cannot be ruled out that coffee may have a transient (acute) effect on CHD, thus making the preservation of the temporal relationship in longitudinal studies particularly weak. Results from a case-crossover study suggested that coffee may act as a trigger of a first MI, with an RR of 1.49 (95% CI 1.17–1.89) in the hour after coffee intake.23 This risk seemed to be particularly strong in occasional coffee drinkers (≤1 cup/day, RR 4.14, 95% CI 2.03–8.42), in sedentary patients (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.30–2.30), or in patients with three or more risk factors (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.30–3.39).23 Yet, several other factors should be taken into account when coffee consumption is investigated in relation to CHD, such as the caffeine content of coffee beverages, coffee preparation and metabolism, and the doses of consumption. In a study conducted in six habitual and nine nonhabitual coffee drinkers, the authors observed in the latter group an acute increase in both blood pressure (BP) and muscle sympathetic nervous activity (MSA) after coffee and caffeine intake.24 Because decaffeinated coffee also increased BP and MSA in nonhabitual drinkers, the authors put forward that other compounds present in coffee, other than caffeine, may boost cardiovascular risk.24 Although not confirmed in other studies, Floegel and colleagues found a positive association between decaffeinated coffee consumption and risk of MI.9 However, this association was no longer significant after the authors excluded all MI cases occurred during the first 2 years of follow-up, thus speculating that reverse causation might have been responsible for the observed association. Several lines of evidence suggest that boiled coffee raises cholesterol levels,4 an effect mainly attributed to the diterpene lipids cafestol and kahweol.3 Indeed, the use of a paper filter during coffee preparation seems sufficient to limit the content of these “hypercholesterolemic” compounds,4 thus making a moderate filtered coffee consumption a harmless heart habit.25 Results from the SHEEP and the VHEEP study,19 a population-based case–control study, showed a 1.4 times higher incidence of first nonfatal MI in men drinking boiled coffee versus those drinking filtered coffee, with an even higher risk for women (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.04–2.56) (Table 41.1). More

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41.2  Coffee and CHD Risk

TABLE 41.1  Summary of Epidemiologic Studies Relating Coffee Consumption to Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Risk References

Study

Exposure

Outcome

Summary

Grobbee15

The Health Professional Follow-up Study, longitudinal study

Total coffee consumption ≥4 cups/ day vs none

Nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD eath Total CHD

No increase in CHD according to caffeine and caffeinated coffee intake

Caffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs none Decaffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs none

Moderate CHD risk increase for decaffeinated coffee

Myers10

11 prospective studies, meta-analysis

Coffee intake, ≥6 cups/ day vs ≤1 cup/day

Coronary events

No association between coffee consumption and CHD

Greenland11

8 case–control studies + 14 cohort studies, meta-analysis

Coffee intake 5 cups/ day vs none

MI

Weak increase in CHD risk for heavy coffee consumption in cohort studies

Kawachi12

8 case–control and 15 cohort studies, meta-analysis

Coffee drinking, ≥5 cups/ day vs none

CHD

Increased CHD risk in heavy drinkers Weak increased CHD risk in habitual coffee drinkers

Willet16

Prospective cohort study

Coffee intake ≥6 cups/day vs none

CHD

No association between caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and caffeine consumption and CHD risk

Woodward17

Scottish Heart Health Study, cohort study

Coffee consumption ≥5 vs none

CHD

Moderate benefit from coffee consumption

Kleemola18

Finnish men and women

Coffee consumption >7 cups/ day vs 1–34 cups/day

Non fatal MI

No association between coffee drinking and CHD risk

Hammar19

The SHEEP and the VHEEP study, population-based case–control study

Consumption >9 dl filtered coffee/ day vs ≤3 dl/day

First nonfatal MI

In men drinking boiled coffee incidence of first nonfatal MI 1.4 times higher vs men drinking filtered coffee, with an even higher risk for women

Consumption >9 dl mixed coffee/day vs ≤3 dl/day Consumption >9 dl boiled coffee/day vs ≤3 dl/day Boiled vs filtered coffee

Happonen20

The Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study, prospective study

Boiled coffee increases the occurrence of first nonfatal MI

Moderate drinkers vs heavy drinkers (≥814 ml/day)

Acute coronary events Heavy coffee drinking (MI or coronary raises the risk of acute MI or death) coronary death

Lopez-Garcia21 Prospective cohort study

Coffee intake, ≥6 cups/day vs <1 cup/month

CHD

No indication that coffee (or caffeine) intake increases CHD

Azevedo22

Community-based case–control study

Regular ever coffee drinkers

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI)

Significant decreased MI risk in men with no family history of AMI; nonsignificant increased MI risk in men with family history of AMI

Baylin23

Costa Rica, case-crossover design

Habitual coffee consumption

Nonfatal MI, 1 h after coffee drinking

Coffee intake probably triggers MI risk

≤1 cup/day 2–3 cups/day ≥4 cups/day

Continued

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TABLE 41.1  Summary of Epidemiologic Studies Relating Coffee Consumption to Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Risk—cont’d References

Study

Exposure

Outcome

Summary

Cornelis5

Slow caffeine metabolizer

Coffee intake ≥4 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

First acute nonfatal MI

Increased MI risk only in subjects with impaired caffeine metabolism

Sofi13

13 case–control studies + 10 cohort studies, meta-analysis

Coffee intake ≥4 cups/ day vs none

CHD

Coffee consumption is not associated with an increased risk of CHD

Wu14

21 prospective cohort studies, Coffee consumption <1 cup/day meta-analysis (United States) or ≤2 cups/day (Europe) vs ≥6 or ≥7 cups/day

CHD

No long-term increased CHD risk

Moderate coffee consumption Floegel9

European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Germany)

Caffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

Lower CHD risk in moderate coffee drinker women MI

No association between coffee consumption and MI

Decaffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

Table modified from Ref. 8, Table 2, with permission from Elsevier.

recently, in a nested case/referent study, men drinking filtered coffee four or more times per day showed an increased MI risk (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.05–2.84), compared to those drinking filtered coffee one or no times per day. In women, a positive association was observed for boiled coffee (OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.08–5.86) in univariate analysis only.26 Results from a recent meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials suggest that drinking unfiltered coffee significantly increases, in a positive dose–response relationship, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, and triglyceride levels.27 Interestingly, Weggemans and colleagues28 observed increased LDL-cholesterol levels in response to cafestol, but only in homozygous carriers of the C allele of the ApoA1 83 genotype. Years later, Cornelis et al. observed, for the first time, an increased risk of nonfatal MI in slow caffeine metabolizers, thus putting forward a role of caffeine in the development of this disease.5 However, a nonlinear dose–response relationship between coffee (and caffeine) intake and CHD risk may explain the heterogeneous findings from different studies, which typically investigated the role of coffee at various doses, and, partly, the null findings of meta-analyses. de Koning Gans and colleagues observed a U-shaped relationship between CHD morbidity and coffee consumption with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65– 0.96) in healthy men and women drinking between 2.1 and 6 cups of coffee per day.29 A “J-shaped” relationship between acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and coffee was already observed in a previous study of Panagiotakos et al.30 In particular, they found a lower coronary risk for

moderate coffee consumption (<300 ml coffee/day; OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50–0.86) and a significant increased risk for heavy or very heavy consumption (>300 ml coffee/ day; OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.82–5.26).30 These findings indeed suggest that more accurate quantitative reviews of the literature that consider the “J- or U-shaped” relationship between coffee and CHD risk are warranted, to clarify this issue.

41.3  COFFEE AND STROKE RISK As for CHD, studies examining the association between coffee consumption and risk of stroke have produced inconsistent findings (Table 41.2). Indeed, coffee may exert protective effects on stroke, for instance, by positively affecting the risk of atherosclerosis,31,32 although this potential health effect could be counterbalanced by slight acute rise in BP after coffee consumption.32 Two recent meta-analyses, one comprising 941 and one 11 prospective studies,40 have been published with the aim to clarify the relationship between coffee consumption and risk of stroke. In particular, in their dose– response meta-analysis of 10,003 stroke cases and 479,689 participants, Larsson and Orsini40 found a significant evidence of a nonlinear association between coffee consumption and risk of stroke. The strongest inverse association was observed in moderate consumers drinking 3–4 cups of coffee per day (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74–0.92) compared to nonconsumers (Figure 41.2).40 The associations did not differ in men and women, across geographic regions, years of follow-up, and for ischemic

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41.3  Coffee and Stroke Risk

TABLE 41.2  Summary of Epidemiologic Studies Relating Coffee Consumption to Stroke Risk References Grobbee

de15

Study

Exposure

Outcome

Summary

The Health Professional Follow-up Study

Total coffee consumption ≥4 cups/ day vs none

Fatal and nonfatal stroke

No increase in stroke risk according to caffeine and caffeinated coffee intake

Stroke subtypes

Inverse association between coffee and ischemic stroke

Caffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs none Decaffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs none Larsson33

α-Tocopherol, β-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, prospective study: male smokers

Coffee consumption ≥8 cups/day vs <2 cups/day

Cerebral infarction Intracerebral hemorrhages Subarachnoid hemorrhages

Lopez-Garcia34

Nurses’ Health Study

Coffee consumption >4 cups/day vs <1 cup/month

Nonfatal and fatal stoke

Cohort study

Lack of association between coffee and intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage

Long-term coffee consumption is not associated with stroke risk Modest reduced risk of stroke according to coffee consumption

Mukamal35

Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program

Coffee consumption >7 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

Nonfatal stroke

No association

Sugiyama36

Miyagi cohort study: Japanese men and women

Total coffee consumption ≥1 cups/ day vs never

Fatal strokes

No association between coffee consumption and stroke mortality

Mostofsky37

Stroke onset study, multicenter case-crossover study

Coffee drinkers vs non drinkers

Stroke in subjects with acute ischemic stroke

Increased ischemic stroke risk onset in infrequent coffee drinkers

1 h after 1 serving of coffee 1 h after 1 serving of caffeinated coffee in subjects drinking ≤1 cup/ day

Larsson38

Swedish Mammography Cohort: Finnish women

Coffee consumption >5 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

Nonfatal stroke

Low or no coffee consumption associated with increased stroke risk in women

Mineharu39

Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study)

Coffee consumption ≥3 cups/day vs <1 cup/week

Fatal stroke

Coffee consumption associated with stroke mortality reduction in men

Larsson40

Dose–response meta-analysis Coffee consumption ≥8 cups/day of 11 prospective studies vs none

Stroke

Moderate coffee consumption weakly inversely associated with stroke risk

Floegel9

European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Germany)

Stroke

No association between coffee consumption and stroke

Caffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs <1 cup/day Decaffeinated coffee consumption ≥4 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

Table modified from Ref. 8, Table 2, with permission from Elsevier.

stroke versus hemorrhagic stroke, although statistically significant only for the former.40 These results are indeed largely comparable to those of a meta-analysis published 1 year later by Kim and colleagues.41 In particular, in their pooled analysis of nine prospective studies, the authors found that drinking ≥4 cups of coffee per day was associated with a 17% decreased risk of stroke. In a by-country

subgroup analysis, the authors found a nonstatistically significant RR of 0.86 (95% CI 0.73–1.02) in Americans, as opposed to a significant protective effect of increased coffee drinking on stroke risk (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74–0.92) in Europeans. Furthermore, in the latter subgroup, the authors observed a lower risk in women (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70–0.93); in those drinking ≥4 cups of coffee per day

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FIGURE 41.2  Adjusted relative risk of stroke associated with coffee consumption in a meta-analysis of published studies, 1966–2011. Coffee consumption was modeled with restricted cubic splines in a multivariate random-effects dose–response model. The lowest value of zero was used to estimate all relative risks. The vertical axis is on a log scale. Taken from Ref. 40. By permission of Oxford University Press (OUP) on behalf of The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

(RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75–0.91), and for ischemic stroke (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71–0.90) only.41 However, results from the recently published prospective cohort study EPICGermany that was not included in the latter meta-analysis could not confirm a significant association between coffee consumption and risk of stroke.9 There is, indeed, some evidence that coffee may exert different effects depending on the stroke subtypes.38 Results from the Swedish Mammography Cohort38 suggested a lower risk of total stroke, cerebral infarction, and subarachnoid hemorrhage, but not intracerebral hemorrhage strokes in women drinking ≥1 cups of coffee per day versus those drinking ≤1 cup. The protective effect of coffee seemed particularly strong for subarachnoid hemorrhagic strokes, whereas consumption of alcohol, smoking, body mass index, and history of diabetes or hypertension did not modify the observed association between coffee consumption and risk of cerebral infarction.38 Furthermore, in a cohort of 26,556 Finnish male smokers,33 drinking ≥8 cups of coffee per day was inversely related to the risk of cerebral infarction (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66–0.90) but not intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Further studies, however, could not finally clarify whether there were differences in the impact of coffee consumption to the risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke subtypes.36,42 There are only a few studies supporting a possible harmful effect of coffee on the development of stroke. Mineharu and colleagues39 observed a higher risk of fatal stroke in women drinking at least 3 cups of coffee per day compared to noncoffee drinkers, but not in

men.39 However, as for CHD, there is indication of an acute effect of coffee on the risk of stroke.37 Interestingly, Mostofsky and colleagues observed a two-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke in the first hour after drinking 1 cup of coffee, or less, but not in those drinking coffee more regularly.37These findings are, somehow, in line with those of a very recent study in which the authors found a 20% reduced risk of all strokes in consumers drinking 1, 2, or more cups of coffee per day compared to seldom drinkers.37 Besides, an inverse association between coffee consumption and cerebral infarction was also observed.37 Thus, taking the whole state of research into account, these findings seem to suggest that coffee does not apparently exert any adverse effect on the risk of stroke. However, coffee is rather likely to be protective at moderate consumption, although the observed reduction in risk is small. Indeed, further studies are warranted to better understand which coffee compounds may protect against stroke.

41.4  COFFEE AND HEART FAILURE RISK Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that represents a growing public health problem with a tremendous potential for morbidity43 and mortality.44 Furthermore, HF is a disease with various entities, distinguished by function (diastolic vs systolic), location (left vs right), or disease progression (chronic vs acute), and triggered by prior conditions such as hypertension, obesity, and diabetes, along with a whole series of cardiovascular disorders. At the beginning of the 2000s, Wilhelmsen and colleagues published the results from the Swedish Multifactor Primary Prevention Study suggesting that, in men, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and especially MI were common antecedent or concomitant morbidities in the onset of HF.43 Thus, behind this background, it is not surprising that observational studies have been mostly focused on the contribution of coffee to the risk of CHD, stroke, and CVD mortality, rather than to the risk of HF. Indeed, these authors were also the first mentioning the association between coffee and the risk of HF.43 In their study, a trend toward an increased HF risk was observed in consumers drinking 5 cups of coffee per day, although the increased risk was small (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05– 1.30).43 Since then, further publications followed from other northern European populations, especially from Sweden.35,45–47 However, the increased HF risk observed in coffee drinkers by Wilhelmsen and colleagues43 could not be replicated by any of these studies. Rather, most studies showed a protective effect of coffee, although not statistically significant.48 Results from a dose–response meta-analysis of five prospective studies, showed a

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41.6  Concluding Remarks

TABLE 41.3  Summary of Epidemiologic Studies Relating Coffee Consumption to Heart Failure (HF) Risk References

Study

Exposure

Outcome

Summary

Wilhelmsen43

Swedish multifactor primary prevention study

Coffee consumption >5 cups/day vs none

HF

Weak positive association between coffee consumption and HF risk

Ahmed45

Prospective cohort study in Swedish men

Coffee consumption ≥5 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

HF hospitalization or mortality

High coffee consumption is not associated with increased rates of HF hospitalization or mortality

Mukamal35

Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program, cohort study

Coffee consumption 5–7 cups/day vs 1–3 cups/ day

Mortality after acute MI

Coffee intake is not associated with hospitalization for congestive heart failure or stroke

Levitan46

Swedish Mammography Coffee consumption Cohort ≥5 cups/day vs <1 cup/day

HF hospitalization or death from HF

No association between coffee consumption and incidence of HF events

Wang47

FINRISK study, cohort study

Coffee consumption ≥10 cups/day vs none

HF

Coffee consumption does not increase HF risk

Mostofsky48

Dose–response metaanalysis of prospective studies

Coffee consumption ≥11 cups/day vs none

HF

Significant J-shaped relationship between coffee consumption and HF risk; strongest inverse association for 4 servings/day

significant J-shaped relationship between coffee consumption and HF risk.48 The strongest inverse association was observed for a moderate consumption of 4 or 5 servings per day (pooled RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.99), after which the curve reached a plateau and reverted at higher levels of consumption.48 Although these findings seem to suggest no detrimental effects of coffee consumption on the risk of HF, until now evidence in this field is limited to Scandinavian studies. Perhaps, the relationship between coffee and HF might differ by region. Thus, to provide a more complete picture, further studies with different cultural and geographic backgrounds, or with different HF entities (such as diastolic and systolic), are warranted (Table 41.3).

41.5  COFFEE AND CVD MORTALITY Besides the detrimental effects attributed to caffeine and diterpene alcohols in raising the cardiovascular risk, coffee contains antioxidant compounds that could contribute to a reduction in CVD mortality.4 Although an early meta-analysis on coffee consumption and coronary death showed inconclusive results,11 later and more recent epidemiologic studies have shown a U-shaped relationship between coffee consumption and CVD mortality.18,29,34,39,49,50 At the beginning of the 2000s, in a Finnish population, men not drinking coffee showed a risk ratio for CHD mortality of 1.88 (95% CI 1.20–2.95) compared to habitual consumers.18 The relationship was J-shaped in the age-adjusted analysis, but it changed when smoking status, serum cholesterol level, BP, and previous MI were added to the model. The authors therefore concluded

that not only was coffee drinking not harmful, but also the slight increased CHD mortality observed in heavy coffee drinkers was largely explained by the effects of smoking and high serum cholesterol level.18 Furthermore, they put forward that the increased CHD mortality, observed in men not drinking coffee might have been attributed to some underlying diseases that led to a reduction in coffee consumption.18 Recently, de Koning Gans and colleagues29 observed a U-shaped association between coffee consumption and CHD mortality for 3–6 cups/day with an HR of 0.64, although the association did not reach the customary level of statistical significance. Nevertheless, a dose– response relationship with CVD mortality was already observed in the Iowa Women’s Health Study whose results suggested a 24% decreased CVD mortality in people drinking 1–3 cups of coffee per day.49 Furthermore, in two large cohort studies, the inverse association between coffee consumption and all-cause mortality observed in both men and women was independent of caffeine intake and mainly explained by a reduction in CVD mortality.34 All in all, these findings seem to suggest that coffee drinking is harmless, although it cannot be ruled out the possibility that in both men and women excessive coffee consumption might increase the risk of mortality from CVD.

41.6  CONCLUDING REMARKS Lifestyle changes may have a key role in the prevention of CVD. Although regular consumption of moderate quantities of coffee seems to be associated with a small protection against CVD, results from

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epidemiologic studies are conflicting. A nonlinear dose– response relationship between coffee intake and CVD risk may explain the heterogeneity in findings. In fact, the American Heart Association so far suggests that a moderate consumption of 1–2 cups of coffee per day does not seem to be harmful for the cardiovascular system (http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/GettingHealthy/NutritionCenter/HealthyDietGoals/Caffeine-and -Heart-Disease_UCM_305888_Article.jsp), rather “possibly” useful (http://newsroom.heart.org/news/regu lar-moderate-coffee-drinking-235549). In contrast, the effect of high caffeine intake on the risk of CHD is still under debate. Thus, moderation seems to be the keyword that may simplify this controversial topic. In fact, the possible health effects of coffee on both CVD morbidity and mortality have been observed at moderate intake, whereas they disappear at heavy or very heavy consumption.

41.7  SUMMARY POINTS • A  decreased risk of both CVDs morbidity and mortality has been observed at moderate intake of coffee. • Possible health effects disappear at heavy or very heavy coffee consumption. • Slow caffeine metabolizers may be at increased risk of nonfatal MI. • A nonlinear dose–response relationship between coffee and caffeine intake and CHD risk may explain the heterogeneous findings. • Coffee consumption does not apparently exert any adverse effect on the risk of stroke or HF.

Acknowledgments We thank Lisa Eggebrecht for help with systematic literature research. We are indebted to the Oxford University Press (OUP), to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and to the authors of the paper Larsson SC, Orsini N. Coffee consumption and risk of stroke: a dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies. Am J Epidemiol 2011;174:993–1001 in allowing us to reproduce Figure 41.2. We are indebted to Elsevier Publisher in allowing us to reproduce and modify Table 41.2 from: “Di Castelnuovo A, di Giuseppe R, Iacoviello L, de Gaetano G. Consumption of cocoa, tea and coffee and risk of cardiovascular disease. Eur J Intern Med 2012;23:15–25.

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