Commentary—Integration of policies: a requirement for coastal zone management

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Ocean & Coastal Management, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 151-162, 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Northern Ireland 0964-5691195 $9.50 + 0.00 0964-5691 (95)00019-4

Commentarymlntegration of policies: a requirement for coastal zone management

Pieter Winsemius* McKinsey & Company, Inc., Amstel 344, 1017 AS Amsterdam, The Netherlands (Received 17 November 1994; accepted 4 April 1995)

ABSTRACT Effective coastal zone management covers and aligns (i.e. integrates) the various policies affecting a particular coastal area. It seeks to bring together the many governmental and non-governmental bodies that have a stake in the area concerned. Policy makers should begin, the author argues, by determining to what extent they have already integrated policies and parties, in order to be able to develop realistic new initiatives. To build support for these initiatives, they will need to develop a positive end-game vision, and contrast it with an extrapolation o f current policies. Finally, the new initiatives will need to be implemented in two phases. In the first phase, try-outs can be conducted, the necessary technical and organizational skills can be practiced and improved, and more scientific research can be done to strengthen the fact base for future policies. The experience thus gained can then be used in the second phase, when comprehensive planning begins in earnest. G o v e r n m e n t s must d e v e l o p a set of mutually consistent policies to address the multiple challenges threatening our coastal zones worldwide, and thus ensure that these a r e a s - - w i t h their heavy urbanization and o f t e n vulnerable physical environment---can d e v e l o p in a sustainable manner. Many p e o p l e will find this call for integration quite * Pieter Winsemius is a Director of McKinsey & Company, Inc. in Amsterdam. The former Dutch Minister of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, he is currently a co-leader of McKinsey's global environmental practice. The current text is an abridged version of his keynote address at the World Coast Conference, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, 4 November 1993. 151

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acceptablemjust as many of us would readily embrace the notion of, say, 'sustainable development'. But why do we agree with such statements? Is it because we all fully understand what is meant by 'integration' or 'sustainable development'? Or could it be that the basic concept of 'integration' remains somewhat vague to us, but we like the sound of it and simply agree without fully understanding it? Against this background, I will therefore try to: • define the various types of integration, all of which are essential in policy planning • apply these types of integration to coastal zone management • derive some lessons from the process of policy formulation, and • speculate on the contours of a possible policy for dealing with coastal zone issues.

1. TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN POLICY PLANNING Governments are rarely proactive: instead, they tend to react to problems. The way in which they do so depends on their level of sophistication and the maturity of a specific policy field. In general, four distinct development stages of policy planning can be identified (Fig. 1). 1. Reactive policy. The first phase of policy-making is that of an ad-hoc response to external challenges. Policy planning in this phase of development focuses on handling urgent tasks, for example dealing with public health problems or large-scale deaths of fish caused by pollution. In this phase, policy-making departments deal with highly sceptical counterparts in other government departments and equally sceptical

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Fig. 1. Development stages in policy planning.

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target groups of the specific policy. The policy-makers lack appropriate resources, experience, organization, and credibility. A major share of resources is spent on developing tools (such as regulations), networks, and infrastructure. In most cases, the planning horizon is less than one year and the objective can best be characterized as 'survival'. 2. Seetoml policy. The transition to the second stage of policy-making is made when there is sufficient basis for setting targets within a specific sector (e.g. traffic, housing, environment, tourism). Work programs focus on near-term implementation of regulations, and on the enforcement objectives that this implementation requires. Sectoral plans often provide a medium-term perspective. For practical purposes, however, the planning horizon is generally one yea,'. The main objective is internal integration: aligning all government units, be it at the national, regional, or local level, who have a direct responsibility in the policy area concerned. Such integration is essential: when the policy-making sector does not get its act together, it will cause great confusion, and suffer a major loss of credibility. 3. Topical policy. Based on the improved organization and cohesion of policy-making units, the focus now changes to external integration: integrating a specific policy's objectives into the strategies of other government departments (industry, transportation, housing, urbanization, education, tourism), and giving each of these departments its own sector-specific goals. This involves 'translating' these goals into terms that are meaningful to these departments, and to their respective target groups, within their specific areas of interest. Topical policy plans typically have a horizon of three to five years and specify overall targets to be realized during that time. The transition to this kind of integrated planning is all the more necessary since sectoral policies frequently prove inadequate in dealing with the increasingly complex issues that we face in advanced and developing economies. An overarching perspective, involving more than one sector, is often required. Consequently, governmental organizations in this stage shift their focus to central policy themes, such as overpopulation or pollution. Representatives of different sectoral units work together on a project basis to develop practical solutions, often in direct interaction with representatives from other departments and relevant target groups. 4. Comprehensive policy. The contours of the fourth stage of policy-making can be seen in the most advanced countries. The co-responsibility of third parties, especially the target groups, is needed to develop effective, efficient, and equitable solutions for many issues in advanced societies today. Joint objectives are set, based on a situation

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analysis of the major issues. The time path to realize these objectives recognizes the specific situation and the realistic wishes and needs of each of the target groups. Strengths and weaknesses of the government organizations are taken into account when the options for actions are being assessed. The resulting action plans thus tend to be more realistic than in the earlier stages. Although the planning horizon is much longer (about ten years), comprehensive policy-making recognizes the unpredictability of major parts of the management agenda at hand, and therefore allows for a dynamic adaptation as new evidence or political priorities develop. The keyword during this last stage of policy-making is 'internalization'. Any policy that is truly sustainable must be based on, and supported by, the target groups which it tries to reach. After all, a policy will be aimed at getting the members of these target groups to change their behavior. They must internalize the policy's imperatives as a part of their normal lives in order to be in harmony with their physical environment. This must be the ultimate objective of any policy - to get the target groups to say: 'This is our policy. We don't really need a government to enforce most aspects of this policy, because we do these things automatically.' Can that happen, a change like this? Many doubt it. Still, every day we see examples of major changes in behavior around us, ranging from the virtual elimination of public smoking to the greater participation of women in many societies. People c a n change their values, they c a n change their behavior, and it c a n happen rapidly.

2. CURRENT STATUS OF COASTAL ZONE POLICY In what stage is coastal zone management internationally? It would appear that most coastal zone management policies are of a sectoral nature, i.e. are in Stage 2, with leading countries making the transition to Stage 3, trying to develop topical plans with an emphasis on external integration. Is it important to know where one is? Yes, because a coastal zone policy can only begin to be truly effective once it starts moving towards Stage 3, and starts looking at external integration. The key to any government policy is, after all, to change people's behavior. If one does not affect people's behavior, why have a policy at all? For example, the overpopulation in many coastal zones, caused by an excessive migration which is very difficult to control through our traditional governmental tools, provides continuous evidence of the impact people have. The

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weakness or lack of physical planning is evident e.g. in Marbella (Spain) with its unbridled tourism, and also in countries like Saudi Arabia and Japan with their artificial coastlines, and once again reflects the impact of people. The loss of natural resources in wetlands, the mangroves, the breeding and the feeding grounds in the shallow waters of many deltas: each time, the major threat is people. Or take the pollution that we introduce into our waters from industry, agriculture, household sewage: once again, it is people who are at the root of the problem. Even if one considers the threat of a rise in the sea level: the main cause is the energy consumption by people. It is always people's behavior that needs to be changed. Any policy must start by thinking about the target groups whose behavior must be affected. The complexity of this task is best illustrated by means of the so-called integration column (Fig. 2). At the top of this column, one finds the coastal zone policy-makers. It is here that we speak about internal integration: do we all speak the same words, do we all share the same intentions? If we, the coastal zone policy-makers in national, regional, or municipal governmental bodies, supported by the relevant scientific institutions, do not get our act together, there is little hope that the individual members of target groups, at the far end of the integration column, will understand our intentions. Still, this internal integration is only a first step. It is only during the topical stage of policy planning that the emphasis shifts towards the external integration with the so-called 'linking groups'. Within government, these linking

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groups typically include the department of industry, the department of fishery, the department of transportation, etc. Closely coupled to these ministries are the common-interest groups that represent the target groups of our coastal zone policy. These would include the industry associations, the fishermen's organizations, the usually very strongly organized agriculture lobby, etc. We must try to align all of these institutions---the other government departments and the representative organizations of our target groups---to our coastal zone objectives. Making this step means significant progress. But still, it is not sufficient. Ultimately, it is the behavior of the individuals within our target groups that has to be affected. The ultimate aim of coastal zone management, therefore, must be the 'internalization' that I mentioned before. Eventually, the target groups should accept our objectives as their own. There is a mighty lesson to be drawn from this integration column. Any time we start a coastal zone policy, even when we are in the earliest stages or are just thinking about internal integration, we must have in the back of our minds the target groups whose behavior we want to change. In order to reach and influence the individuals in these target groups, we must ensure that our colleagues within the sector, the other government departments with their own imperatives, and the representative bodies of our target groups eventually become our partners.

3. T H E E S S E N C E OF VISION D E V E L O P M E N T All too often, policy-makers concentrate on selecting and developing instruments, and on creating new institutions. Of course, these will be necessary in many cases. But one must ask whether they are sufficient, and especially whether they are the right things to start with. After all, the prime goal of any coastal zone policy should be to change people's behavior and new instruments and institutions alone will not enable us to achieve that. Indeed, the experience of many years of policy-making suggests that we may only be able to develop an adequate policy when the problems that we are trying to solve have grown to be quite major and we must wonder whether we are not too late. Politicians react to problems. They rarely act early enough to prevent problems from happening in the first place. We can accommodate and adapt, but slowly developing issues, such as overpopulation and sea level rise, will continue to threaten the coastal zones, and because these problems develop slowly, most societies probably do not feel a need to act now. There are, in other words, not enough breaches in the dike.

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So what do we do? I propose that we resort to so-called 'vacuum management', a term I borrowed from Barry Gibbons, the chief executive of Burger King. Basically, Mr Gibbons says there are two ways of creating a readiness for change among a large group of people. The first one is by creating a sense of urgency. In terms of coastal zone management: when the dikes burst, the change readiness of large groups of people is high. However, if the dikes are still intact, one has to resort to vacuum management. When a leader in society wants to change things, he (or she) has to move in a specific direction. By doing so, our leader creates a vacuum behind him. But the people he is trying to move along, will tend to fill that vacuum with negative thoughts: Don't follow the leader! They tend to resist change. They know what they have, but they don't know what they will get if they follow. If the leader then takes a second step, and a third, he will be isolated from his constituency pretty soon, and eventually must be replaced by a policy-maker or a politician who is closer to the people and understands them better. All too frequently, we see leaders who no longer lead, and are left alone. Prophets usually sit in the desert by themselves, as you know. To induce change, it is therefore essential to prevent negative thoughts from entering the vacuum that the leader creates by moving, and ensure instead that positive thoughts about the proposed change fill the void. Furthermore, leaders must understand that in most cases they cannot create enough of a vacuum by themselves, and need the help of a small and committed group of direct supporters. They must also understand that it is essential to celebrate the winners among those supporters who step into the vacuum and take bottom-up initiatives in line with the vision of the leader. Neutral bystanders can turn into enthusiastic supporters when they experience the thrill of success. Thus the essence of vacuum management is to provide positive thoughts to all parties in the integration column. First of all, the leader must be able to paint a long-term objective or, to phrase it differently, describe the contours of a possible end-game that is appealing to many. This end-game vision can be compared with a scenario that would result from the extrapolation of the current policies. The gap between the two, even if surrounded by uncertainties, can stimulate the thinking among the members of a target group. Within the confines of coastal zone management, one can picture the future of the wetlands in Northwestern Europe or of the mangroves in tropical countries; the contrast between an unchanged-policy scenario and a positive end-game scenario will be huge. But will it be sufficient to create change? Political imperatives differ by country and, within societies, by target groups.

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The message (the end-game perspective) must be tailored to the people within the target groups, such that it is directly recognizable to them. For this purpose, the leader and his or her supporters will have to develop partnerships, not only with local governments but also with local sections of the target group, i.e. the people that somehow have to accept the long-term responsibility for making change. Moreover, as coastal zones are rarely limited to the territorial boundaries of a local community, the policies and partnerships must be extended to the national and international level. We are clearly setting ourselves a highly challenging task. Experience shows that long-term policies dealing with infrastructure or environment often get a low priority, especially when other imperatives, such as poverty (or alternatively economic growth), have to be dealt with simultaneously. Difficult as it may be, however, the point of departure for successful coastal zone management must be the development of an end-game vision.

4. CONTOURS OF F U T U R E POLICIES Can we draw the contours of a possible policy? Before saying anything else, we must stress that there is no such thing as a single coastal zone management policy that can apply worldwide. The issues and the political imperatives differ widely internationally, nationally, and even locally. Policy-makers have tried it many times: drawing up policies to satisfy the needs of the whole word, so to speak. Each time, they found their plans could not be effective. I would suggest, instead, that we take a two-phase approach (Fig. 3). The first phase comprises the 'finger exercises', to use a term that the piano players among you will be familiar with. One has to do many of these exercises before one can reasonably start with the second phase: the 'full concert', or, in our terminology, comprehensive planning. We must realize that, as far as coastal zone management is concerned, we have just started with the very simple finger exercises. To some this may seem disappointing, but we must realize that if we do not take the first step in a marathon race, we can never reach the finish. First of all, we have to develop our sectoral plans and, hopefully, some of our topical plans for the most vulnerable coastal zones. Without these, it would be pointless even to worry about the next step of comprehensive planning. In order to arrive at these sectoral and topical plans, we have to establish the proper boundary conditions, such as the technical and financial support for those countries that cannot

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handle the planning tasks by themselves. I would also strongly suggest making available to the planning authorities the option of a so-called 'second opinion', i.e. a quality check by a small independent commission of outside experts. As we have seen from the Canadian and Dutch Environmental Impact Assessment, the inclusion of a second opinion will enhance the quality of the original plan, and the degree of interest shown by the other government disciplines involved (i.e. external integration). Moreover, this approach raises the chance that the outcome of the plan, with the attached second opinion report, is taken into serious consideration. Experience shows that the second opinion approach also provides an extremely effective and efficient means for transferring know-how. During the phase of the finger exercises, we will also have to take a closer look at the external integration, i.e. the partnerships with other governmental departments. Anybody who has worked in policy development realizes that the objectives of one sector are not automatically the same as those of other sectors, especially when the policy involves at the minimum three layers of government (national, regional and local), as is the case with coastal zone management. We therefore have to ensure a process of transferring insights and sharing responsibilities. This process is often compared with a relay in athletics: central government sets objectives, and passes them on as a task to regional government, which in turn relays it to local government and, eventually, when we have reached the stage of deregulation, it ends up

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k Fig. 4. Partnershipapproach. as a self-responsibility of target groups. This analogy has considerable merit. But, when dealing with decentralization and deregulation, it is actually much more appropriate to think in terms of partnerships as exemplified by a different sport, namely rugby. Rugby management recognizes the joint responsibility of all players for reaching a common goal. It starts with one player, for instance national government, carrying the ball. But all others--say regional and local government plus the target groups--participate in the game and follow the ball carrier very closely (Fig. 4). At some stage, the ball carrier gets stuck and/or finds one of his fellow players in a better position. He then passes the ball, for instance through decentralization, towards regional government. In contrast to the relay in athletics, national government would continue to help regional government as it moves forward, and regional government must be able to pass the ball back to national government or, preferably, to one of the other players, for instance local government. This type of partnership, whereby the players 'run along with the ball' and remain jointly responsible for the overall outcome, is not nearly as vulnerable as a relay race, with its inherent risk of somebody slipping or dropping the baton during the hand-over. On the other hand, it is clear that this form of intensive cooperation requires very specific structures, systems, and, especially, a great deal of joint practice--as the Japanese have shown us in the area of product development. Rugby management emphasizes the joint responsibility for the overall result. It is this lesson we must apply in coastal zone management: we have to remain responsible and must help others in carrying the ball forward--nationally and internationally.

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This brings me to the international aspect of the 'finger exercises'. At the international level, we will have to hone our skills at internal integration through the development of joint sectoral plans. Sectoral policy-makers will have to get their act together. Major progress has been made, but much more needs to be done. We have to start experimenting, during this phase of finger exercises, with cooperative efforts between neighboring countries. In The Netherlands, for instance, we would have to work with Germany and Denmark with regard to the Waddensea, but also with Norway and the United Kingdom with respect to the North Sea. We have to get much better at developing cooperative efforts between the countries of the First, Second, and Third Worlds, for instance with regard to the transfer of funds and expertise. Finally, we have to emphasize two further steps: awareness-building and knowledge-building. Awareness-building is crucial for vacuum management. Only when the need for a much more developed type of coastal zone management is adequately recognized can we expect to increase the support base among other government departments and, especially, target groups. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have a role to play, but we must recognize the importance of governments in developing targeted communication programs that build on serious studies of coastal zone issues. The last point that we should emphasize during the phase of finger exercises is that of knowledge-building. When I read and talk about the issues of coastal zones, I personally feel a strong need for a much deeper understanding of our oceans. Somehow, it seems to me that we are only scratching the surface. After all, what do we really know about our oceans, with their deep undercurrents, their huge role in determining climates, their capacity to absorb pollutants, etc. We seem to get surprising new insights every day. We do understand, however, that the oceans, with their very long time lags and their huge volumes, can make us pay dearly, in due course, for our ignorance. We therefore cannot allow ourselves to know as little as we currently do. In the next ten years, we must gain a thorough understanding with regard to the role that oceans play in our society, and especially the impact they have on the future of our world. After finishing our finger exercises, let us say ten years from now, we will have laid the foundation for the 'full concert', the comprehensive coastal zone plans with an end-game perspective that provides direction to the people in the target groups; ultimately, they are the ones who will have to change their behavior. Our comprehensive coastal zone plans must be dynamic, because we learn new things all the time. A

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ten-year plan that is not dynamic will not last longer than three years. It has to be adapted, and must evolve as new insights necessitate change. It must also involve the target groups in order to build an understanding and a commitment to the ultimate objectives. Within our countries we have to aim for internalization, i.e. a state of affairs whereby the target groups themselves carry the ball, and the various levels of government come to their support as needed. If this is properly executed, we can meet the conditions for sustainable development as stated in the report of the Brundtland Commission and further amplified during the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro. At the international level, the key word becomes external integration. We must make sure that other sectors--fishing, transportation, industry, energy, housing, etc.--take into account the requirements for a sustainable coastal zone management. We also have to move from awareness-building to value learning: the values underlying the concept of sustainable development will have to be taught to the members of these target groups, in order to ensure that these values will, eventually, be adopted as a basis for coastal zone management. I would like to add one very specific thought, an after-thought if you like, with respect to the knowledge that we need to acquire about our oceans. If it turns out that we, as a society, have managed to do to the oceans what we have done to our atmosphere and earlier to our rivers--i.e, polluting them on such a large scale that macro balances have been disrupted--then we have only one solution left: pray that a Higher Being will, once again, take care of us.

5. T H E C H A L L E N G E Can it be done? Yes, because we have no alternative. It is easy to make your choice if there is only one item on the menu. Coastal zone management will be crucial to the future of our world. Internal integration, external integration, and, particularly, internalization are not luxuries, but necessities. Awaiting in the not too distant future is a full concert. It will be a huge challenge to get it right. But we, the world, simply must get it right.