Dynamic Control Method of Design Terms in Underground Construction

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ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1918 – 1924

15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development”

Dynamic control method of design terms in underground construction Svetlana Kanyukova a,*, Nikolay Vatin a, Dmitry Leybman b, Tatiana Sazonova c a

Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University, Polytechnicheskaya str. 29, St.Petersburg, 195251, Russia a Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoye shosse 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia c St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, 2-Krasnoarmejskaja, 4, Saint-Petersburg, 190005, Russia

Abstract The article exposes the feasibilities of using the dynamic method of controlling the terms of investment and construction projects during the underground construction, particularly the principles of ensuring the completion of construction projects to meet the date, because in many cases project deadline exceed leads to catastrophic outcomes for the aims and results of the project. Thus, the present article deals with the relevant issues of project schedule control, methodology study based on application of schedule timeliness index and schedule progress index, indicating upon reaching the critical value of extreme deviations from the forecast project duration of targeted project implementation at any moment of time. The suggestion herein is to calculate the minimum possible durations for each project activity and estimate the project duration safety margin coefficient of the project of underground construction. Based on the safety margin coefficient value it is suggested to define the border values for project shift from one status to another upon criteria of its timely completion possibility. The suggested methodology can be recommended for use by underground construction project managers in order to prevent a potential failure of project completion deadlines. The system indicating critical project time variance enables to initiate the process of project schedule adjustment before point of no return and herewith prevent project failure. The studied methodology was implemented in modern project management software sphere. © 2016 2016The TheAuthors. Authors.Published Published Elsevier © byby Elsevier Ltd.Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Urbanisationunder as a responsibility Prerequisite for Sustainable Development. Peer-review of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-952-383-99-47. E-mail address: [email protected]

1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development

doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.942

Svetlana Kanyukova et al. / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1918 – 1924

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Keywords: construction project management, project time control, project schedule, schedule timeliness index, schedule progress index, project catastrophe, underground construction, subway station, subway, underground structures

1. Introduction There is a modern tendency in construction projects to pay special attention to completion of works and commissioning of the projects on time. There can be distinguished a number of projects where it is crucial to prevent a failure to meet construction deadlines, e.g. it was necessary to complete all the works and commission the Olympic Projects in Sochi, which are completely based on the ground waters, before the start of the Olympic Games, football stadiums are to be completed by the Football World Cup 2018 [1] and, besides, it is required to extend the «Nevsko-Vasileostrovskaya» subway line from the station «Primorskaya» to the station «Savushkina Street» including the metro station «Novokrestovskaya» no later than the beginning of the championship. According to the decree of the Government of Russian Federation № 518 dated June 20, 2013, the station «Novokrestovskaya» was included in the list of infrastructure objects that must be built before the start of the football World Cup in 2018 [1]. Commissioning of such projects later than on the fixed date (deadline) results not only in drastic decrease in project effectiveness but can lead to the total program failure it was a part of. Thus, when working with the crucial projects where deadlines failure is not acceptable it is necessary to pay special attention not only to comprising and optimization of the Construction Project Schedule but also creation of effective system of monitoring, control and management of the project. The subject of research herein is to study the methods of calendar planning and control over timing of works within the construction project of the underground construction. The aim of the study is to create and develop a system of activities timing control and monitoring within underground construction project that can prevent catastrophe due to failure of timely project completion [2]. This article addresses the situations when the underground project timely completion is the top priority for the project manager and timely completion is the key criteria of the construction project success. Therefore, there is a possibility to increase the project budget within certain limits if it provides correction of negative deviations from the activities deadlines. In accordance with the generally accepted project management principle, effective schedule management is considered to be the key to successful project completion. Therefore, all main methods of project management emphasize the importance of tasks calendar planning and control over the schedule [3-10]. In Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) PMI [11], which is the guideline for most project managers in the World; its principles lie in the basis of such modern software for project management as Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, Spider Project, Asta PowerProject. Project planning methods are presented in quite details [9, 15], but there is no sufficiently complete information on principles how to achieve the planned targets, first of all based on dates of separate activities and the overall project [12]. Moreover, for schedule control PMBOK prescribes to use Project Management Software, Resource Optimization Technique, Modeling Technique, Leads and Lags, Schedule Compression and Scheduling Tool [11]. The latest revision 5 of PMBOK includes the process of activities dates control – procedure 6.7 «Control Schedule», which prescribes to use the following methods to report on the status of work: x Critical Path Method (CPM) was suggested by companies «DuPont» and «Remington Rend» for the management of big projects on DuPont Plants modernization [13-15]. x Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was created by Lockheed corporation, consulting company «Booz, Allen and Hamilton Inc» for the USA Navy during development of Polaris- Submarine weapon system. x Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) was described for the first time in 1997 in the book of Eliyahu M. Goldratt «Critical Chain» [16]. x Earned Value Management (EVM) is based on definition of proportion of the actual costs to the planned value of activities which shall be completed by the target date. [17-19].

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x Milestone Trend Analysis significantly improves project schedule management as it focuses on tracking the most important events (control points) of a project connected as a rule to the achievement of intermediate project results. However, according to the research paper [2] analysis of the above methods of monitoring and controlling the investment and construction projects revealed that, despite the large number of existing methods and control models of the investment timing for the construction projects, there is no effective monitoring system of the project schedule, which allows to evaluate the possibility of the timely completion of the project for management decisions. 2. Theory or experimental methods used The authors of research papers [2,12,20-22] propose to control the timing of investment and construction project by the means of method «Dynamic method of investment and construction project time control», which includes two dynamic project model (Figure 1, Figure 2).

Fig. 1. Relation graph of the deviations of project completion prediction from to the reporting date.

The essence of an assessment of possibility of the project completion date as to the project target date is shown on curve (Figure 1). Here: Tst - start project date; Ttar - target completion project date; Tfor - forecast completion project date, depends on the achieved progress of the proj- ect, at the project start date is equal to Ttar, at the project completion date is equal to Tact; Tact - actual completion project date, when the project will be finished; !T(t) = Ttar. Tfor - function of project dates deviation; ∆T(t)1 = Ttar – Tfor — the function of the project timing deviations in the case of the timely project completion; ∆T(t) 2 = Ttar – Tfor — the function of the project timing deviations in the case of failure of the project deadlines. The curve (Figure 1) shows that, despite existence of the negative forecast of project completion date deviations, these function deviations ∆T(t)1 didn’t leave out of the set limits (see the admissible value of deviation) and the project was managed to be finished in time, while the prediction function of deviations from the project due date ∆T(t)2 has exceeded has exceeded the established limits, which eventually led to the breakdown of the project timing. The time, in which the function of the prediction deviation of the project by the due date has exceeded the established limits, is considered as a "point of no return", i.e. we can assume that below this point is no longer possible to ensure timely completion of the project [12].

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Gathering information about the schedule of the project must be recorded in tabular form (or directly into the project management software), after collecting information on the individual studies should assess the status of the project as a whole. The dynamic method of timing control of the construction project is based on permanent monitoring of two relative indicators: the Schedule Timeliness Index (STI) and the Schedule Program Index of the project. STI is a proportion of absolute deviation from the project completion date as of the status date to the remaining time until the approved finish date of the project. Schedule Timeliness Index (STI) could be calculated using the following formula:

STI

Ttag  T for

(1)

Ttag  SD

where Ttag - target completion date of the project defined during the approval of the baseline; Tfor - expected completion date of the project, i.e. date of approach of a finishing milestone of the project, determined by the current schedule for status date; SD - status date. Schedule Processing Index is a function of the ratio of the actual work volume that must be done at the reporting date, taking into account the time remaining until the end of the project. The value of the SPI depends on amount of time which remains before finish of the project, i.e. to be able to make management decisions. The Schedule Progress Index (SPI) can be calculated by a formula:

N compt SPI

N planned

1 (2)

Ttag  SD

The STI can be considered as the basic, and the SPI - as an additional. Values of these indexes are not interconnected therefore change of one index will directly not influence the value of other.[20].

3. An Experimental section Dynamic timing control method includes developed indexing system of the project parameter, providing timely information about the occurrence of critical parameters, which can lead an investment and construction project to disastrous consequences. The project can be in one of the following zones by the criterion of the possibility of its timely completion ensuring (Table 1). Table 1. Indices’ value critical borders. Project zones

Index value

Green

In the range from 0 to L1

Yellow

In the range from L1 to L2

Red

Below L2

It should be noted that the permissible deviation limit is determined individually for each project at the stage of formation and approval of the basic plan. This limit defines the maximum deviation of the schedule until the occurrence of irreparable delay, which in turn could lead to a proposal to change the purpose of the term extension in the base schedule. For the above-mentioned, let us consider an example of implementing the dynamic method of schedule control.

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For example, we can take the «Nevsko-Vasileostrovskaya» subway line in St. Petersburg, particularly the subway station «Novokrestovskaya», which is an important part of the infrastructure and necessary for 2018’s World Cup matches in St. Petersburg, its capacity will be 45 thousand. An analysis of the work terms of the project schedule for the station «Novokrestovskaya» was produced by the periodic (weekly) calculation of the following two parameters: the schedule timeliness index (STI) and the schedule processing index (IWP), followed by the definition of the status of these indicators and determine the status of according to the criterion of the project deadlines. The tools of this analysis were approved basic project schedules, as well as software Microsoft Project software. Information about the calculation of the index values of the timeliness of the project are presented in Table 2.

The percentage of completed tasks

Number of works finished in practice

Number of works which should be done

Deviation

Prediction date of the project finishing

Report date

Days left till the project finishing

Table 2. Project time parameters.

STI

SPI

05.02.16

329

15.01.17

-16

339

323

95.28

-4.86

-7.52

12.02.16

322

23.01.17

-24

365

335

91.78

-7.45

-13.38

19.02.16

315

22.02.17

-54

429

405

94.41

-17.14

-9.31

26.02.16

308

12.02.17

-44

499

478

95.79

-14.29

-7.16

04.03.16

301

15.02.17

-47

571

503

88.09

-15.61

-20.73

11.03.16

294

31.01.17

-32

653

587

89.89

-10.88

-18.01

18.03.16

287

31.01.17

-32

760

698

91.84

-11.15

-14.89

25.03.16

280

31.01.17

-32

891

801

89.90

-11.43

-18.90

01.04.16

273

12.02.17

-44

994

973

97.89

-16.12

-4.06

08.04.16

266

31.01.17

-32

1083

1054

97.32

-12.03

-5.27

Current status is determined for each index. Index values in table cells marked with the color of the zone in which the project j is according to a «traffic light» principle (green, yellow, red): Grey - Allowable deviation from the of the target Yellow - Reimbursable deviation from plan Red - Irreparable deviation from the plan. The adopted limits of index deviations for each status of a project of «Novokrestovskaya» station is presented in d Table 3:

Svetlana Kanyukova et al. / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1918 – 1924 Table 3. The evaluation system of index values at the «Novokrestovskaya» station. Project zonez

Index, %

Green

In the range from 0 to 15

Yellow

In the range from 15 to 30

Red

More than 30

These values of the limiting boundaries for the indices L1 and L2 were determined empirically, since considering methods for determining the value of the index data is not included in the scope of this study. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the value L1, i.e. project status transition border from green to yellow zone, is recommended to take an equal part of L2. According to Table 3, it is determined that the point of no return of the project considered as an example did not occurre, i.e. index values did not exceed the L2 limit, respectively, the index values do not fall into the red zone. However, it is worth noting that despite that the project was carried out with negative deviations, which means index values were occasionally in the yellow zone (L1 to L2), project participants had the opportunity to accelerate the work and the graph by increasing the duration of the works within the permissible limits. This means that at this stage of a construction project of the «Novokrestovskaya» station has the ability to be completed in a timely manner. 4. Results and Discussion sections This article provides recommendations on reasonable definition of L2 limit value, while determining the value of L1 can be dependent to a certain proportion of the L2 value. As a result it should be noted again that the schedule timeliness index is a relative value, which gives an idea of the degree of deviation of the expected end of the project period from the end of the policy term of the project (deadline), depending on the time remaining until the completion of the project. While the schedule processing index of the project is a relative value, which gives an idea of the number of completed project work in comparison with the amount of project works, which should have been completed in accordance with the basic plan at the balance sheet date, and depending on the time remaining until the completion of the project. Dynamic timing control method is now found its realization with the help of user-defined fields, macros and representations (layouts) settings in the Microsoft Project 2013 software and Oracle Primavera P6 and can be used in the management of investment and construction projects, especially such projects, which should be timely finished and the timing is the key factor of the success. Conclusions Dynamic timing control method allows to assess the project for the timely adoption of effective management solutions to bring the project parameters beyond the critical states. Based on the example about the subway station «Novokrestovskaya» it is obvious that the proposed indexing system of the project parameters can effectively monitor the status of the work (work complex) in particular, and the whole project, and also provides timely information on the occurrence of the critical parameters that may cause the project to the point of no return, ie, disaster project. References [1] The resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation № 518 "About the Program of preparation for holding in 2018 in the Russian Federation world championship on football". The government of the Russian Federation (20 June 2013). Retrieved 3 July 2013. Archived from the original on July 5, 2013. [2] S.V. Bovteev, S.V. Kanyukova, Development of methodology for time management of construction projects. Magazine of Civil Engineering. 2. (2016) 102-112. [3] G.I. Abdullayev, The influence of organizational and technological factors on management efficiency the construction of buildings, Magazine of Civil Engineering. 2(20) (2011) 52-54. [4] I. Azarova, An analysis of life cycle of projects in housing sector, Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 1(4) (2015) 2-10.

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