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Employment forecasting: The employment problem in industrialized countries
158
Long
Range
Planning
Vol. 23
February
in doubt remember be multiplied
Occam’s razor which is ‘Entities are not to without necessity’.
1990
strength of the volume is that, unlike many seminar/workshop volumes, all the papers are of uniformly high quality.
This book will be popular in the U.S.A. but the brash style will put some readers off in the United Kingdom. However do not be Put off, as although the authors may have taken simplification too far, there is some good advice here as well as being a good introduction to this complex subject. It is also written in such a form that it could be used for some staff training.
Contrary to what the title may lead one to expect, the study does not make any forecasts for the future regarding employment and unemployment. On the other hand, it reviews in detail the past experience of a few industrialized countries in terms of their use of the available forecasting tools up to the early 198Os, and in this process evaluates the adequacy or inadequacy of the very techniques of forecasting.
BRIAN BURROWS, Futures
Except for the synthesis in the concluding chapter by the editor that comments on each of the forecasting models discussed in the volume, no comprehensive survey of the literature on forecasting techniques is attempted. Each individual author also confined himself to an in depth and excellent but restricted job of discussing his/her own model. The countries covered also could not reflect the broad array of different models in the world. In this sense, the framework of the study seems to be somewhat restricted.
Information
Associates.
Employment Forecasting: The Employment Problem in Industrialized Countries, M. J. D. HOPKINS (ed.), Pinter Publishers (1988), 247 pp., A25.00 (hardcover). ‘As is the case with all models, one can never claim that policy makers actually “use” the models to create and take policy decisions. Policy formulation is much more complicated. Models are used as a testbed for ideas and to allow alternative policy experiments to be examined without subjecting actual economies to the stresses and turbulence involved’ (p. xv). The study under review, prepared for the International Labour ‘Office within the framework of the World Employment Programme, is a collection of seven excellent country studies on the status of the art of employment forecasting, preceded by a short introduction, and an elaborate synthesis. The seven papers were first presented in a workshop held to produce this volume in Geneva in 1983. The country studies covered the use of the Cambridge multi sectoral dynamic full employment model in the United Kingdom (by Terry Barker), dynamic multi sectoral model of employment forecasting in France (by Jean-Pierre Puig), the Belgian experience of employment and unemployment forecasting (by M. Vanden Boer), the experience of the Central Planning Bureau of Holland with its new operational modium term model (by B. H. Hasselmann, J. H. M. Kok, and V. R. Okker), macro econometric models in Mexico (Ajit Singh), the use of INTERLINK model in six OECD countries, viz., the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada (by Peter H. Sturm), and the use of Larry Klein’s the world econometric model of project LINK in a set of 24 OECD countries, eight centrally planned economies, and four regional models for developing countries (by Peter Pauly). Except for the study on Mexico, the volume is wholly devoted to the problems of forecasting in the developed countries, particularly in the OECD countries. The study on Mexico reviews the experience of the Mexican economy in adopting two Cambridge macro economic models, viz., the Cambridge Growth Project model, and the Cambridge Economic Policy Group model, in its own Industrial Model of Mexico. All the papers present a crisp description of the particular forecasting models, including their limitations in terms of their ability to evaluate alternative policies, major trends in employment and unemployment conditions, and a discussion of alternative scenarios. All the contributors in the volume are experienced practioners, and some of them are actual authors of some models of forecasting. They are also influential in economic policy making and planning in the respective countries. Accordingly each paper is of high quality both in terms of its perspective and the approach of analysis. In fact, an important
What is the use of the forecasting models? Are long term forecasts accurate and reliable? Particularly in the case of manpower planning, attempts to forecast have been found to be not very successful. While the individual authors do not address these questions directly, the editor does reflect on a few such issues. He notes, ‘most people, when asked, doubt the usefulness of forecasting because they believe it to be unreliable’ (p. 233). The problem does not lie with the techniques. As Hopkins further observes, ‘unfortunately, there is no guarantee that more informed forecasting based on better, and thus more elaborate, models will lead to better forecasts’ (p. 233). All this does not mean that all forecasting exercises are futile. Some investment is worthwhile in order to improve our understanding of economic systems ‘even if this may not lead to significant improvement in our ability to forecast’ (p. 233). The volume is indeed rich with (a) a wealth of empirical experiences of selected countries in their alternative approaches to the problem ofunemployment, and (b) a critical review of methodologies used for medium and long term employment forecasting. So both from the point of view of theoretical technical details, and empirical policy use, the volume will be of immense use. JANDHYALA B. G. TILAK, World
Total Business Planning-A
Bank.
Step-by-Step
Guide with Forms, E. Wiley & Sons
JAMES BURTON and W. BLAN MCBRIDE, John
(1988), 205 pp., A47.50. At a time when the U.S.A. is celebrating its twentieth anniversary since first landing men on the Moon, it seems rather a shame that the American authors (Burton and McBride) managed to quote Neil Armstrong’s historic initial moon-walking words (one small step . . .) incorrectly in the introduction to their book. It seems a particular shame as they use it as an example of the importance of careful reporting in the context of the elements of a good plan. I kept telling myself that it was a deliberate mistake but the earnest outflow of Burton and McBride negates such a deduction. First impressions count for a lot and in a book which advocates a careful approach it can raise initial doubts about the credibility of the rest of the material. As for the credibility
of Burton
and McBride,
they claim that
Long
Range
Planning
Vol. 23
February
in doubt remember be multiplied
Occam’s razor which is ‘Entities are not to without necessity’.
1990
strength of the volume is that, unlike many seminar/workshop volumes, all the papers are of uniformly high quality.
This book will be popular in the U.S.A. but the brash style will put some readers off in the United Kingdom. However do not be Put off, as although the authors may have taken simplification too far, there is some good advice here as well as being a good introduction to this complex subject. It is also written in such a form that it could be used for some staff training.
Contrary to what the title may lead one to expect, the study does not make any forecasts for the future regarding employment and unemployment. On the other hand, it reviews in detail the past experience of a few industrialized countries in terms of their use of the available forecasting tools up to the early 198Os, and in this process evaluates the adequacy or inadequacy of the very techniques of forecasting.
BRIAN BURROWS, Futures
Except for the synthesis in the concluding chapter by the editor that comments on each of the forecasting models discussed in the volume, no comprehensive survey of the literature on forecasting techniques is attempted. Each individual author also confined himself to an in depth and excellent but restricted job of discussing his/her own model. The countries covered also could not reflect the broad array of different models in the world. In this sense, the framework of the study seems to be somewhat restricted.
Information
Associates.
Employment Forecasting: The Employment Problem in Industrialized Countries, M. J. D. HOPKINS (ed.), Pinter Publishers (1988), 247 pp., A25.00 (hardcover). ‘As is the case with all models, one can never claim that policy makers actually “use” the models to create and take policy decisions. Policy formulation is much more complicated. Models are used as a testbed for ideas and to allow alternative policy experiments to be examined without subjecting actual economies to the stresses and turbulence involved’ (p. xv). The study under review, prepared for the International Labour ‘Office within the framework of the World Employment Programme, is a collection of seven excellent country studies on the status of the art of employment forecasting, preceded by a short introduction, and an elaborate synthesis. The seven papers were first presented in a workshop held to produce this volume in Geneva in 1983. The country studies covered the use of the Cambridge multi sectoral dynamic full employment model in the United Kingdom (by Terry Barker), dynamic multi sectoral model of employment forecasting in France (by Jean-Pierre Puig), the Belgian experience of employment and unemployment forecasting (by M. Vanden Boer), the experience of the Central Planning Bureau of Holland with its new operational modium term model (by B. H. Hasselmann, J. H. M. Kok, and V. R. Okker), macro econometric models in Mexico (Ajit Singh), the use of INTERLINK model in six OECD countries, viz., the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada (by Peter H. Sturm), and the use of Larry Klein’s the world econometric model of project LINK in a set of 24 OECD countries, eight centrally planned economies, and four regional models for developing countries (by Peter Pauly). Except for the study on Mexico, the volume is wholly devoted to the problems of forecasting in the developed countries, particularly in the OECD countries. The study on Mexico reviews the experience of the Mexican economy in adopting two Cambridge macro economic models, viz., the Cambridge Growth Project model, and the Cambridge Economic Policy Group model, in its own Industrial Model of Mexico. All the papers present a crisp description of the particular forecasting models, including their limitations in terms of their ability to evaluate alternative policies, major trends in employment and unemployment conditions, and a discussion of alternative scenarios. All the contributors in the volume are experienced practioners, and some of them are actual authors of some models of forecasting. They are also influential in economic policy making and planning in the respective countries. Accordingly each paper is of high quality both in terms of its perspective and the approach of analysis. In fact, an important
What is the use of the forecasting models? Are long term forecasts accurate and reliable? Particularly in the case of manpower planning, attempts to forecast have been found to be not very successful. While the individual authors do not address these questions directly, the editor does reflect on a few such issues. He notes, ‘most people, when asked, doubt the usefulness of forecasting because they believe it to be unreliable’ (p. 233). The problem does not lie with the techniques. As Hopkins further observes, ‘unfortunately, there is no guarantee that more informed forecasting based on better, and thus more elaborate, models will lead to better forecasts’ (p. 233). All this does not mean that all forecasting exercises are futile. Some investment is worthwhile in order to improve our understanding of economic systems ‘even if this may not lead to significant improvement in our ability to forecast’ (p. 233). The volume is indeed rich with (a) a wealth of empirical experiences of selected countries in their alternative approaches to the problem ofunemployment, and (b) a critical review of methodologies used for medium and long term employment forecasting. So both from the point of view of theoretical technical details, and empirical policy use, the volume will be of immense use. JANDHYALA B. G. TILAK, World
Total Business Planning-A
Bank.
Step-by-Step
Guide with Forms, E. Wiley & Sons
JAMES BURTON and W. BLAN MCBRIDE, John
(1988), 205 pp., A47.50. At a time when the U.S.A. is celebrating its twentieth anniversary since first landing men on the Moon, it seems rather a shame that the American authors (Burton and McBride) managed to quote Neil Armstrong’s historic initial moon-walking words (one small step . . .) incorrectly in the introduction to their book. It seems a particular shame as they use it as an example of the importance of careful reporting in the context of the elements of a good plan. I kept telling myself that it was a deliberate mistake but the earnest outflow of Burton and McBride negates such a deduction. First impressions count for a lot and in a book which advocates a careful approach it can raise initial doubts about the credibility of the rest of the material. As for the credibility
of Burton
and McBride,
they claim that