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Energy-urban transition: The Mexican case
Energy Policy 38 (2010) 7226–7234
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Energy-urban transition: The Mexican case Armando Pa´ez n Freelance, 33 Oriente 1617, Puebla, 72530 Puebla, Mexico
a r t i c l e in f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 14 March 2010 Accepted 28 July 2010 Available online 19 August 2010
In this paper I present a study regarding the institutional conditions of Mexican cities based on a postpetroleum urban model that considers transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism issues. The model was constructed with recommendations of authors and organizations that have analysed the energy dimension of cities under an energy-availability, environmental or petroleum-independent view. To make the study I sent a questionnaire to some local governments of all the country. The information indicates that Mexican cities do not have institutional conditions to manage the urban-energy transition that signify the end of cheap oil and the peak of world oil production. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Energy transition Post-petroleum cities Mexican cities
1. Introduction Since the end of the 1980s, with the rise of discussion of sustainable development, energy transition has been presented as an environmental issue. Renewable or alternative energies have come to be known as ‘clean’ as the challenge has become to avoid atmospheric pollution and global warming. However, as useful as this debate has been, it has ignored the peak oil problem. Here, I argue that oil depletion compels us to understand energy transition not only as desirable in environmental terms, but also as something inevitable in historical terms. The end of cheap oil will limit the capacity of cities and their governmental institutions to sustain themselves: cities and institutions currently constructed, reconstructed and sustained precisely with cheap energy. The challenge is to prepare cities for the new energy era. It is crucial to identify the extent to which cities have the institutional conditions to implement a post-petroleum urban model. In this paper, I present a model for post-petroleum cities as well as the current situation of Mexican cities. Mexico provides a particularly compelling country in which to study the urban impacts of oil depletion for several reasons. At the beginning of 2010, Mexico is still an important oil producer with an output of more than 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day. Surplus oil is a crucial engine of the Mexican economy, with some 35% of the federal budget coming directly from the foreign sale of oil. However, in 2004, local production reached its peak and it will be necessary to bring less productive fields and non-conventional oil into production just to meet domestic demand (SENER (Secretarı´a de Energı´a), 2010). The country already imports
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gasoline, and it is clear that depletion will only accelerate— considering the fall of the giant Cantarell oil field and the complications at the Chicontepec Basin. The examination of the degree of preparation of Mexican cities for energy transition could be helpful to define an urban-energy agenda, especially for emerging economies. Before turning to the specific case of Mexico, a brief review of oil depletion is necessary.
2. The peak of world oil production The industrial production of oil started in 1859, and barely a century later, M.K. Hubbert began to estimate the moment at which production would reach its maximum. He predicted that the peak of United States production would occur about 1970 and world production about 2000 (Hubbert, 1956, 1962). The first calculation was correct, while the second seems to have been off by several years. During the 1970s and 1980s, the studies of Hubbert were highlighted by authors worried about the availability of energy resources amid the US energy crisis (Gever et al., 1986; Hall et al., 1986; Hayes, 1977; Phillips, 1979). However, it was not until the mid-1990s that interest in estimating the year in which oil production could reach its peak was reborn. A new generation of scientists (Campbell, 1991, 1997; Campbell and Laherre re, 1998; Deffeyes, 2001; Ivanhoe, 1995, 1996) produced new calculations. These newer forecasts disagreed little with Hubbert: the peak of world oil production could happen before 2010. Several more recent studies indicate that the peak will happen very probably before or around 2020 (BGR (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources), 2005; European Parliament, 2006; Hirsch, 2007; MEFI (Ministe re de l’E´conomie, des Finances et de l’Industrie), 2005; Robelius, 2007; Sorrell et al., 2009). In contrast, more recent calculations of Campbell
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indicate 2008 (ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), 2009). These studies announce the end of the cheap oil era. The peak of world oil production means the decline of conventional or easily obtainable oil production. Conventional petroleum does not require high investments to be extracted and refined. Depletion implies the impossibility of increasing the offer of petroleum even as demand increases. The end of cheap oil is determined by geological, technological, political, and financial factors (Campbell, 1997; Kaufmann and Cleveland, 2001), and by the energy spent and environmental cost related to the obtaining of energy (Hall et al., 1986). The peak in the production of a non renewable resource announces the beginning of the end of its exploitation. The peak of oil production compels to think about the substitution of oil as energy resource and as a raw material and to take actions to anticipate, direct, and control, insofar as is possible, the energy transition considering the urbanization process that has changed human settlements and regions all over the world since the 1950s.
3. Energy and urban planning The 1979 Congress of the International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) analysed the energy-planning connection, highlighting the ‘quasi-incapacity’ of urban planners to take into account energy problems, which so affected the oil importing industrialized countries since October 1973. The document of the Congress explained that the energy-planning connection post-World War II was dominated by the extraordinary possibilities that abundant, cheap energy offered. Freedom for individuals to move long distances freely led to the distant separation of housing, commercial, and industrial districts as well as the possibility of heating or cooling buildings in virtually any climate. In essence, urban developments were unfettered by restrictions of any kind. Abundant, low-cost energy thus hindered the capacity of urban planners to anticipate the effects of the energy shock on urban layouts (ISOCARP (Internacional Society of City and Regional Planners), 1981). In addition to inflation, unemployment, and recession, high energy prices showed that the automobile-dependent and dispersed urban model and modern heating–cooling mechanized architecture were vulnerable. Suburbia was in crisis. As a consequence, urban planners and others began to think about mobility, land use, urban growth, and architecture from the point of view of energy availability (Burchell and Listokin, 1982; Chaline and Dubois-Maury, 1983; Friedman, 1982; Jackson, 1978; Laconte et al., 1982; Mara, 1984; Martı´n, 1981; Meier, 1984; Owens, 1986a; Romanos, 1978; Van Til, 1982). However, the considerable decrease in oil prices in the mid1980s, the discovery of large oil fields in countries not belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and improvements in energy efficiency meant that the attempts at urban-energy reform were largely ignored. As a result, since the late 1980s, the sustainable development literature has centred on the environmental dimension of the energy question, and not on the limits of the energy-economical-urban system based on cheap oil, ignoring or even rejecting warnings about the peak. The challenges to urban systems with the decrease of hydrocarbon production have not been stated in general (Anderson et al., 1996; Beatley, 2000; Capello et al., 1999; Corominas, 1996; Girardet, 1999; Huang and Chen, 2005; Huang et al., 2001; Mega, 2005; Merlin and Traisnel, 1996; OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development), 1995; Reddy, 1998; Rogers, 1997; UNCHS (United Nations Centre for Human Settlements—Habitat),
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1991, 1996; WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development), 1987; White, 2002; Winter, 1994). These warnings have been taken into account recently by some authors, who are developing an urban-energy approach that surpasses the perspectives formulated by those working on the sustainable development issue as an environmental problem. This new approach not only aims to create environmentally friendly cities, but also to prepare them to be petroleum independent (Droege, 2006; Kenworthy, 2003, 2007; Lerch, 2007; Newman, 2007). A model for a city constructed in view of the new energy scenario bears little resemblance to previous models, which followed aesthetic, technological–functional, social reform, and/or entrepreneurial principles (Hall, 2002; Lacaze, 1997; Sa´nchez, 1999). To be sure, these considerations are necessary but not enough to attain urban sustainability.
4. Urban-energy management The body of thought regarding urban-energy that was developed between 1973 and the middle of the 1980s, the urban-environmental proposal since the end of the 1980s, and the urban-post-petroleum analysis that some authors sketch since the middle of the 2000s, all bring elements to guide the policies and legal frameworks that must lead urban management in the decades to come to re-think urban centres in light of petroleum depletion. This urban model can be called post-petroleum or technolosar. From the post-petroleum point of view, sustainability is not only an outgrowth of environmental concerns. Instead, the need for sustainability seeks to understand the dynamics of society and the institutions that govern it following what is stated by Joseph Tainter, who reminds us that sustainability has a cost and depends on energy: a sustainable society must be capable of sustaining its sociopolitical institutions, institutions and society that in order to resolve its problems increase its complexity demanding more energy. If the sociopolitical institutions and its society are incapable of obtaining a new energy subsidy should lose complexity, be more autonomous or be simplified diminishing their expense. Societies and institutions cannot avoid the diminishing returns law (Tainter, 1988, 2000, 2003, 2006). The already evident financial and economic complications – consequence in part of the oil prices increase – and the framework for sustainability proposed by Tainter lead to think that the urbanenergy management will have to be implemented without abundant financial resources and under a policy of austerity. The post-petroleum model that I propose here takes into account the needs of urban areas for transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism. The central ideas of the post-petroleum urban model can be summarized as follow (the issues considered are shown in the questionnaires presented in the next section): A post-petroleum urban model must have an accessible electric public transport network, with pedestrian zones and bicycle ways. This network must locate nodes and connection points in key urban centres. Transport and land use policies must be integrated. The different zones of the city must mix functions, offering commercial, governmental, educational, recreational services, favoring height growth ( four levels) rather than extension, but avoiding high density to avoid social or environmental problems, a deployment known as decentralized concentration (Martı´n, 1981; Van Til, 1982). The city must take into account local climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, insolation, and winds, for an architectural and urban design guided by bioclimatic and ecological
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energy criteria instead of formal caprices so in vogue in postmodern architecture and urban design. As is frequently discussed, the use of solar and other renewable energy sources will be a crucial consideration. Perhaps not so widely recognized but equally important, the city must increase its woodland and green zones for aesthetic, livable and climatic reasons. While bioclimatic architecture and planning define the energy saving and efficiency agenda of the city, the end of wasteful culture must be encouraged with frugal ways of life and the acquisition of better technology. The city must save water, carefully apportion it, and reuse it. This logic must also be applied to the handling of waste. Organic wastes must be reintegrated into the soil, especially to allow the development of an urban/periurban agriculture to feeds the city aiming for self-sufficiency. The protection and regeneration of farm soils, forests, and other ecosystems and their suitable management, while in line with conservationism per se, here has the aim of generating raw materials for the activities of the settlement. The post-petroleum urban model sketched serves as a guide for defining the institutional framework needed for the construction and/or maintenance of cities. It is proposed to deepen not only in the technical dimension of this management, but also its organizational or institutional dimension. As Maurice Strong wrote when he stated at the end of the 1970s the necessity of achieving an effective and just diversification of energy sources: ‘I must emphasize that the diversification of energy sources and the more effective application of energy to human needs—that is, getting more energy to those who need it most—is an organizational problem as much, or more, than it is a technical problem’ (Strong, 1978, p. 167). Accordingly, is not only necessary to concentrate on what is to be done, but also on who and how. Strong emphasizes the necessity of building agreements, creating organizations and implementing policies that allow an appropriate management of technological, energy and urban management at the international level. The study of various components of this organizational or institutional framework (laws, rules, policies, programs, human resources) has been considered by some authors (Cartwright, 1997; Evans et al., 2005; Herna´ndez, 2004; Jepson, 2004; Owens, 1986b; Sheldrick and Macgill, 1984). Here, I propose an approach to identifying the degree to which local governments (municipal, delegational) have the capacity to implement the post-petroleum urban model, with the objective of contrasting this ideal configuration with the reality of each city. In the following section I will discuss the institutional conditions of Mexican cities.
5. Mexican cities study Mexican cities are governed by the governments of the municipalities in which they are found; in the case of the Distrito Federal (Federal District), the territory is divided into boroughs called delegations instead of municipalities. The governments of the 31 states and the Distrito Federal and the federal government define policies, programs and legal frameworks that affect the evolution of urban centres. To study the institutional conditions of Mexican cities in urban-energy terms, I identified, by means of a bibliographical review, the constitutional framework and the policies of the federal government. In addition, I designed a questionnaire based on the proposed urban model, to evaluate municipal governments, delegational governments, state governments and the government of the Distrito Federal. Here I only show a brief
presentation of the constitutional framework and federal policies and the results of the municipal and delegational governments evaluation. 5.1. Constitutional framework and federal government Mexico’s constitution stipulates that the federal government must address the energy needs of the country. Such centralization hinders the ability of local, state and Distrito Federal governments to address their energy problems independently and in an integral fashion. This is a significant oversight given that the use of renewable energies requires exactly the opposite, with energy produced close to the sites of consumption. However, the Ley del ´ blico de Energı´a Ele´ctrica (Public Electric Power Service Servicio Pu Act) indicates that the generation of electric power for selfconsumption is not considered a public service, opening the way for energy management from local governments while fitting into the existing legal framework. In spite of the lack of an integrated strategy to promote the urbanenergy transition from a post-petroleum viewpoint, some Secretariats and Commissions of the federal government (Secretariat of Social Development, Secretariat of Energy, Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources, National Commission for Energy Efficiency, National Commission of Dwelling) have initiatives that could serve as leading axes. 5.2. Municipal and delegational governments 5.2.1. Methodology Questionnaires, made up of closed yes/no questions, were used to study local governments. Questionnaires were divided into the following sections: A. B. C. D. E. F.
General data Transport Architecture, urban planning and land use Renewable energy sources and energy saving and efficiency Urban metabolism Economy and government. In the questionnaires sent to delegations and municipalities with metropolitan areas, according to Ducci (1989) and SEDESOL (Secretarı´a de Desarrollo Social) et al. (2004), I also included: G. Government of metropolitan areas.
Section F is the longest because it was considered desirable to examine aspects of the economical, social, and political situation of the city, as well as natural and environmental issues. Section G seeks to identify coordination between the municipal, delegational and state governments that manage metropolitan areas. I generated slightly different versions of the questionnaire. Questionnaire GM, with 105 questions, was directed at municipalities with metropolitan areas, and with 97 questions to municipalities without metropolitan areas. The questionnaire GD, directed at delegations, had 103 questions, all the delegations are in the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico. The questionnaires had to be tailored because some questions were not applicable in all situations, specifically, section G. The criterion for selecting the cities to be evaluated was based on population. I selected municipalities and delegations that by the year 2020 will have at least one locality with an estimated population of 50,000 inhabitants or more (CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Poblacio´n), 2006). The criterion of 50,000 inhabitants or more corresponds to the subcategory of the Main Urban System group of the National Urban System (50,000 and more
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inhabitants). I considered the locality with the highest population in the case of municipalities that will have more than one so as not to tax city hall staff members with excessive requests for time and information. Thus, of the 222 localities with 50,000
Table 1 Institutional conditions of localities.
Conditions (points)
Localities (89) (percentage)
Very good (57 to 70):
(0) 0%
Good (43 to 56):
(6) 7%
Insufficient (29 to 42):
(31) 35%
Poor (15 to 28): Very poor (0 to 14):
(41) 46% (11) 12%
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inhabitants and more projected for 2020, I selected 214. The year 2020 was taken as reference with the intention of doing a prospective long-term exercise considering the estimated year of world peak oil. From the 214 selected localities, 199 are managed by municipal governments and 15 by delegational governments. Accordingly, 199 GM questionnaires and 15 GD questionnaires were sent. Of the 199 GM questionnaires, 117 correspond to municipalities with metropolitan areas and 82 to municipalities without metropolitan areas. Between 29 November 2007 and 21 August 2008, 82 GM questionnaires and 10 GD questionnaires were received. Most were answered by managerial staff. Questionnaires with less than 80% of the questions answered were not considered, and so 1 GM questionnaire and 2 GD questionnaires were rejected. The total number of questionnaires used for this study was 81 GM (of 199) and 8 GD (of 15). This level of response implies the participation of 42% of governments of selected localities (89 of 214). 54 localities form metropolitan areas. Cities of all sizes in relatively
Table 2 Section B. Transport.
· There is a good relationship between the government and transport worker organizations
(77) 88%
· Public transport can be easily accessed in any part of the city/delegation
(64) 72%
· There are concrete plans to improve the service and safety of public transport
(55) 62%
· There are concrete plans to make traffic faster at rush hours or in congested areas
(52) 58%
· There are concrete plans to increase public transport coverage
(51) 57%
· Strategies to make traffic faster at rush hours or in congested areas are applied
(50) 56% (29) 33%
· There are concrete plans to build a subway, intra-urban train, or trolley bus · There are concrete plans to build bicycle ways and bicycle parking lots in different zones of the city/delegation
(25) 28%
· There is pedestrian infrastructure in good condition throughout the city/delegation
(22) 25%
· There is a policy of public parking lots
(22) 25%
· There are bus stops in good condition throughout the city/delegation
(19) 21%
· There are bicycle-taxis in different zones of the city/delegation
(18) 20%
· People are invited to use their cars less and public transport, bicycles, or walking more
(16) 18%
· Eco-driving is promoted
(16) 18%
· There are bicycle ways and bicycle parking lots in different zones of the city/delegation
(15) 17%
· There are exclusive lanes for public transport
(15) 17%
· There is a subway, intra-urban train, or trolley bus
(13) 15%
· There is a municipal/delegational automobile tax
(7) 8%
· The acquisition of transports that do not consume gasoline, diesel or natural gas is promoted
(7) 8%
· Car-pooling is promoted
(3) 3%
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similar proportions participated; moreover, cities distributed throughout the national territory were evaluated. To identify the degree to which municipal and delegational governments have institutional conditions for managing the urban-energy transition, the questionnaires were read considering the following criterion: All the questions of sections B, C, D and E (56) and only 14 of section F were taken into account. A point was given to the answers that favor the urban-energy management (positive answer), that is to say, all the ‘yes’ answers, with exception of the questions related to water scarcity, problems with waste collection, problems with waste disposal, and subsidies related to energy consumption, where ‘no’ was evaluated as a positive answer. The questionnaires could receive a maximum of 70 points. Based on these scores, I classified local institutional conditions into five categories: very good, good, insufficient, poor and very poor. The remaining questions of section F and questions of section G include elements to identify factors that would likely require financial resources that could affect urban-energy and sustainability policies (for space reasons this information, as the state and Distrito Federal questionnaires, will not be treated here). The aim is to identify general percentages, because these furnish an approximate view of the situation of the institutions that govern the cities of the country.
5.2.2. Results and discussion The analysis indicates that in general terms Mexican cities are not well prepared for the urban-energy transition, with 93% of the governments that participated having insufficient, poor or very poor institutional conditions. Thus, virtually all Mexican cities lack the necessary laws, policies, plans, programs and human resources to reach the proposed post-petroleum urban model (see Table 1). As shown in Table 1, the average of the evaluated localities is 26 points, which indicates, based on the proposed criteria, that local governments in Mexico in general have poor institutional conditions for the urban-energy transition. Small and middlesized localities with less than 500,000 represent a worse situation,
with 79% of the former and 58% of the latter have poor or very poor institutional conditions, while the 23% of middle-sized localities with 500,000 inhabitants or more and the 20% of large localities with 1 million inhabitants or more fall in these categories. The data by sections are as given in Tables 2–6 (the questions are presented following the highest quantity of positive answers obtained; in parentheses the number of localities with positive answers [from 89] and the corresponding percentage is given). The data in Table 2 help us to identify negative factors (issues not considered by most governments) that must be changed through institutional actions: (a) there is no pedestrian infrastructure in good condition throughout the city/delegation, (b) there are no bus stops in good condition throughout the city/delegation, (c) there are no exclusive lanes for public transport, (d) there is no electric public transports, nor concrete plans to build them, (e) there are no bicycle ways, nor concrete plans to build them, (f) there are no bicycle-taxis in different zones of the city/delegation, (g) people are not invited to use their cars less, (h) car-pooling, eco-driving and the acquisition of transports that do not consume gasoline, diesel or natural gas are not promoted, (i) there is no policy of public parking lots, (j) there is no municipal/delegational automobile tax. The data presented in Table 3 help us to identify the negative factors that must be changed: (a) there is no municipal/ delegational legislation to apply bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning, nor these criteria are promoted, (b) the utilization of vacant lots and the reuse of empty buildings are not promoted, (c) there are no enough municipal/delegational land reservations. The data presented in Table 4 show that all issues studied present negative results: (a) there is no municipal/delegational legislation on energy questions, (b) the utilization of renewable energy sources, the use of solar water heaters and energy saving and efficiency in all sectors are not promoted, (c) there are no programs raising awareness on energy saving and efficiency directed to the general population. The data presented in Table 5 help us to identify the negative factors that must be changed: (a) water scarcity, (b) there are no municipal/delegational programs to harness rain water, (c) there
Table 3 Section C. Architecture, urban planning and land use.
· Green areas and urban woodland are conserved and increased
(73) 82%
· There is a municipal/delegation legislation establishing mixed land use
(70) 79%
· The establishing of urban centres is promoted
(58) 65%
· The rescue of deteriorated zones is promoted
(57) 64%
· Ecosystems that surround the urban area are protected or managed
(55) 62%
· There is a municipal/delegational legislation to increase urban density instead of urban dispersion
(50) 56%
· There are enough municipal/delegational land reservations
(30) 34%
· The utilization of vacant lots is promoted
(30) 34%
· The reuse of empty buildings is promoted · The application of bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning is promoted · There is a municipal/delegational legislation to apply bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning
(28) 31% (23) 26% (20) 22%
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Table 4 Section D. Renewable energy sources and energy saving and efficiency.
· Energy saving and efficiency in the governmental sector are promoted
(40) 45%
· There are programs raising awareness on energy saving and efficiency directed to the general population
(35) 39%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the residential sector are promoted
(29) 33%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the industrial sector are promoted
(24) 27%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the commercial and services sector are promoted
(22) 25%
· The utilization of renewable energy sources to generate electric power is promoted
(14) 16%
· The use of solar water heaters is promoted
(14) 16%
· There is a municipal/delegational legislation on energy questions
(8) 9%
Table 5 Section E. Urban metabolism.
· Water saving is promoted
(71) 80%
· There are municipal/delegational programs to treat wastewater
(57) 64%
· Reduction of inorganic wastes is promoted
(49) 55%
· Problems with waste collection are lacking
(48) 54%
· The use of organic waste to make compost is promoted
(48) 54% (43) 48%
· There is no water scarcity in the city/delegation · There are municipal/delegational aviculture and/or livestock programs to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(37) 42%
· The consumption of products and materials manufactured or obtained in the region is encouraged
(34) 38%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of urban or periurban agriculture to promote self-sufficiency, etc.
(33) 37%
· There are no problems with waste disposal · Wastes are separated
(29) 33% (28) 31%
· There are municipal/delegational aquaculture programs to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(22) 25%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of timber utilization to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(22) 25%
· There are municipal/delegational programs to harness rain water · There is a municipal/delegational legislation to apply ecological criteria in buildings and infrastructure
(21) 24% (20) 22%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of non timber forest resources utilization to promote self-sufficiency, etc.
(15) 17%
· The government uses indicators regarding urban metabolism
(15) 17%
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Table 6 Section F. Economy and government.
· The government does not grant subsidies regarding energy consumption
(81) 91%
· The government invests in studies on waste handling
(57) 64%
· Forums or public queries to treat some of the issues considered here are organized
(52) 58%
· The government invests in studies on water management
(51) 57%
· There are strategies to confront a reduction in federal contributions
(46) 52%
· The government invests in studies about transport
(46) 52%
· Municipal/delegational functionaries are prepared or qualified about energy issues to create a permanent body of experts
(43) 48%
· The government invests in studies about architecture and urban planning following bioclimatic criteria
(40) 45% (26) 29%
· The government invests in studies about ecological building · The government invests in studies on urban agriculture, agroecology and/or aquaculture
(24) 27%
· The government invests in studies about energy saving and efficiency · The government invests in studies about renewable energy sources · There is a specialized office in the government dedicated to managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally · There are studies carried out or sponsored by the government regarding the possible effects of energy price increase on the city/delegation
is no municipal/delegational legislation to apply ecological criteria in buildings and infrastructure, (d) the consumption of products and materials manufactured or obtained in the region is not encouraged, (e) there are no municipal/delegational programs of timber and non timber forest utilization, (f) there are problems with waste disposal, (g) wastes are not separated, (h) there are no municipal/delegational programs of urban or periurban agriculture, aquaculture and aviculture and/or livestock, (i) governments do not use indicators regarding urban metabolism. Table 6 shows the negative factors that must be changed: (a) there is no investment in studies about architecture and urban planning following bioclimatic criteria, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, ecological building, urban agriculture, agroecology and/or aquaculture, (b) there are no studies carried out or sponsored by local governments regarding the possible effects of energy price increase on the city/delegation, (c) municipal/delegational functionaries are not prepared or qualified about urban-energy issues, (d) there is no specialized office in local governments dedicated to managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally. All these negative factors, which reveal the lack of laws, policies, plans, programs and human resources, define and justify a post-petroleum urban-energy agenda. In general, issues such as increase in urban density, establishment of mixed land use, easy access to public transport and its improvement, rescue of deteriorated zones, and promotion of water saving are encouraged, with more than 60% of cities having programs addressing these issues. In stark contrast, renewable energy, energy saving and efficiency in general, application of bioclimatic and ecological criteria in construction, pedestrian infrastructure in good condition, bicycle ways, electric public
(21) 24%
(9) 10% (8) 9% (6) 7%
transport, and circular urban metabolism lag far behind, with less than 30% of urban areas having programs addressing these issues. Analysis of the investment in studies made by municipal and delegational governments captures the importance given to the issues, this indicate that some of them receive special attention. The perception and impact of some problems and their incidence on daily life undoubtedly obliges the search for a prompt solution that includes transport, waste, water, and urban expansion considerations. However, that some issues, such as bioclimatic design, urban agriculture, and energy, are treated marginally or ignored highlights the crucial importance that urban theory has for directing planning to anticipate complications. Although urban planning in Mexico promotes mixed land use, the creation of urban centres, and density increase, there is no definite tendency toward decentralized concentration, which requires the creation of electric public transport networks connecting urban centres, infrastructure that remains to be constructed. Moreover, cities in this country are far to be independent from automobiles and other motorized vehicles. To approach the post-petroleum urban model, it will be necessary also to integrate and apply bioclimatic and ecological architecture criteria, to encourage widespread energy saving and efficiency and the utilization of renewable energies, to implement programs that lead urban metabolism towards a circular pattern (e.g., treatment and recycling of water and wastes and urban agriculture) and to invest in studies precisely about urban metabolism and urban energetics to orient the public policies that required. Urban planning in Mexico aims to resolve urban growth, social demands, and environmental problems, and seeks to incorporate strategic management. The great challenge that the energy
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transition represents has clearly not yet been visualized, with just 9% of local governments having a specialized office concentrated in managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally (17% use indicators about it). Energy is not included in organigrams of municipal and delegational governments. While the constitutional framework has limited the participation of local governments in energy management, it is possible to implement actions to begin to think, to plan, to adapt, and to construct cities for the post-petroleum era.
6. Conclusion The peak of world oil production could happen around or before 2020. The peak of Mexican oil production occurred in 2004. Due to the end of cheap oil and subsequent oil scarcity, it is vital to construct a post-petroleum urban model, yet Mexican cities do not have institutional conditions to manage such model. This requires the creation of national and local legal frameworks, the definition of policies, plans and programs, and the formation of human resources to take correct decisions and actions with respect to transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism to go beyond oil. Within this framework, it is urgent to develop a theory of urban energetics to sustain this view.
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Energy-urban transition: The Mexican case Armando Pa´ez n Freelance, 33 Oriente 1617, Puebla, 72530 Puebla, Mexico
a r t i c l e in f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 14 March 2010 Accepted 28 July 2010 Available online 19 August 2010
In this paper I present a study regarding the institutional conditions of Mexican cities based on a postpetroleum urban model that considers transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism issues. The model was constructed with recommendations of authors and organizations that have analysed the energy dimension of cities under an energy-availability, environmental or petroleum-independent view. To make the study I sent a questionnaire to some local governments of all the country. The information indicates that Mexican cities do not have institutional conditions to manage the urban-energy transition that signify the end of cheap oil and the peak of world oil production. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Energy transition Post-petroleum cities Mexican cities
1. Introduction Since the end of the 1980s, with the rise of discussion of sustainable development, energy transition has been presented as an environmental issue. Renewable or alternative energies have come to be known as ‘clean’ as the challenge has become to avoid atmospheric pollution and global warming. However, as useful as this debate has been, it has ignored the peak oil problem. Here, I argue that oil depletion compels us to understand energy transition not only as desirable in environmental terms, but also as something inevitable in historical terms. The end of cheap oil will limit the capacity of cities and their governmental institutions to sustain themselves: cities and institutions currently constructed, reconstructed and sustained precisely with cheap energy. The challenge is to prepare cities for the new energy era. It is crucial to identify the extent to which cities have the institutional conditions to implement a post-petroleum urban model. In this paper, I present a model for post-petroleum cities as well as the current situation of Mexican cities. Mexico provides a particularly compelling country in which to study the urban impacts of oil depletion for several reasons. At the beginning of 2010, Mexico is still an important oil producer with an output of more than 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day. Surplus oil is a crucial engine of the Mexican economy, with some 35% of the federal budget coming directly from the foreign sale of oil. However, in 2004, local production reached its peak and it will be necessary to bring less productive fields and non-conventional oil into production just to meet domestic demand (SENER (Secretarı´a de Energı´a), 2010). The country already imports
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gasoline, and it is clear that depletion will only accelerate— considering the fall of the giant Cantarell oil field and the complications at the Chicontepec Basin. The examination of the degree of preparation of Mexican cities for energy transition could be helpful to define an urban-energy agenda, especially for emerging economies. Before turning to the specific case of Mexico, a brief review of oil depletion is necessary.
2. The peak of world oil production The industrial production of oil started in 1859, and barely a century later, M.K. Hubbert began to estimate the moment at which production would reach its maximum. He predicted that the peak of United States production would occur about 1970 and world production about 2000 (Hubbert, 1956, 1962). The first calculation was correct, while the second seems to have been off by several years. During the 1970s and 1980s, the studies of Hubbert were highlighted by authors worried about the availability of energy resources amid the US energy crisis (Gever et al., 1986; Hall et al., 1986; Hayes, 1977; Phillips, 1979). However, it was not until the mid-1990s that interest in estimating the year in which oil production could reach its peak was reborn. A new generation of scientists (Campbell, 1991, 1997; Campbell and Laherre re, 1998; Deffeyes, 2001; Ivanhoe, 1995, 1996) produced new calculations. These newer forecasts disagreed little with Hubbert: the peak of world oil production could happen before 2010. Several more recent studies indicate that the peak will happen very probably before or around 2020 (BGR (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources), 2005; European Parliament, 2006; Hirsch, 2007; MEFI (Ministe re de l’E´conomie, des Finances et de l’Industrie), 2005; Robelius, 2007; Sorrell et al., 2009). In contrast, more recent calculations of Campbell
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indicate 2008 (ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), 2009). These studies announce the end of the cheap oil era. The peak of world oil production means the decline of conventional or easily obtainable oil production. Conventional petroleum does not require high investments to be extracted and refined. Depletion implies the impossibility of increasing the offer of petroleum even as demand increases. The end of cheap oil is determined by geological, technological, political, and financial factors (Campbell, 1997; Kaufmann and Cleveland, 2001), and by the energy spent and environmental cost related to the obtaining of energy (Hall et al., 1986). The peak in the production of a non renewable resource announces the beginning of the end of its exploitation. The peak of oil production compels to think about the substitution of oil as energy resource and as a raw material and to take actions to anticipate, direct, and control, insofar as is possible, the energy transition considering the urbanization process that has changed human settlements and regions all over the world since the 1950s.
3. Energy and urban planning The 1979 Congress of the International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) analysed the energy-planning connection, highlighting the ‘quasi-incapacity’ of urban planners to take into account energy problems, which so affected the oil importing industrialized countries since October 1973. The document of the Congress explained that the energy-planning connection post-World War II was dominated by the extraordinary possibilities that abundant, cheap energy offered. Freedom for individuals to move long distances freely led to the distant separation of housing, commercial, and industrial districts as well as the possibility of heating or cooling buildings in virtually any climate. In essence, urban developments were unfettered by restrictions of any kind. Abundant, low-cost energy thus hindered the capacity of urban planners to anticipate the effects of the energy shock on urban layouts (ISOCARP (Internacional Society of City and Regional Planners), 1981). In addition to inflation, unemployment, and recession, high energy prices showed that the automobile-dependent and dispersed urban model and modern heating–cooling mechanized architecture were vulnerable. Suburbia was in crisis. As a consequence, urban planners and others began to think about mobility, land use, urban growth, and architecture from the point of view of energy availability (Burchell and Listokin, 1982; Chaline and Dubois-Maury, 1983; Friedman, 1982; Jackson, 1978; Laconte et al., 1982; Mara, 1984; Martı´n, 1981; Meier, 1984; Owens, 1986a; Romanos, 1978; Van Til, 1982). However, the considerable decrease in oil prices in the mid1980s, the discovery of large oil fields in countries not belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and improvements in energy efficiency meant that the attempts at urban-energy reform were largely ignored. As a result, since the late 1980s, the sustainable development literature has centred on the environmental dimension of the energy question, and not on the limits of the energy-economical-urban system based on cheap oil, ignoring or even rejecting warnings about the peak. The challenges to urban systems with the decrease of hydrocarbon production have not been stated in general (Anderson et al., 1996; Beatley, 2000; Capello et al., 1999; Corominas, 1996; Girardet, 1999; Huang and Chen, 2005; Huang et al., 2001; Mega, 2005; Merlin and Traisnel, 1996; OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development), 1995; Reddy, 1998; Rogers, 1997; UNCHS (United Nations Centre for Human Settlements—Habitat),
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1991, 1996; WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development), 1987; White, 2002; Winter, 1994). These warnings have been taken into account recently by some authors, who are developing an urban-energy approach that surpasses the perspectives formulated by those working on the sustainable development issue as an environmental problem. This new approach not only aims to create environmentally friendly cities, but also to prepare them to be petroleum independent (Droege, 2006; Kenworthy, 2003, 2007; Lerch, 2007; Newman, 2007). A model for a city constructed in view of the new energy scenario bears little resemblance to previous models, which followed aesthetic, technological–functional, social reform, and/or entrepreneurial principles (Hall, 2002; Lacaze, 1997; Sa´nchez, 1999). To be sure, these considerations are necessary but not enough to attain urban sustainability.
4. Urban-energy management The body of thought regarding urban-energy that was developed between 1973 and the middle of the 1980s, the urban-environmental proposal since the end of the 1980s, and the urban-post-petroleum analysis that some authors sketch since the middle of the 2000s, all bring elements to guide the policies and legal frameworks that must lead urban management in the decades to come to re-think urban centres in light of petroleum depletion. This urban model can be called post-petroleum or technolosar. From the post-petroleum point of view, sustainability is not only an outgrowth of environmental concerns. Instead, the need for sustainability seeks to understand the dynamics of society and the institutions that govern it following what is stated by Joseph Tainter, who reminds us that sustainability has a cost and depends on energy: a sustainable society must be capable of sustaining its sociopolitical institutions, institutions and society that in order to resolve its problems increase its complexity demanding more energy. If the sociopolitical institutions and its society are incapable of obtaining a new energy subsidy should lose complexity, be more autonomous or be simplified diminishing their expense. Societies and institutions cannot avoid the diminishing returns law (Tainter, 1988, 2000, 2003, 2006). The already evident financial and economic complications – consequence in part of the oil prices increase – and the framework for sustainability proposed by Tainter lead to think that the urbanenergy management will have to be implemented without abundant financial resources and under a policy of austerity. The post-petroleum model that I propose here takes into account the needs of urban areas for transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism. The central ideas of the post-petroleum urban model can be summarized as follow (the issues considered are shown in the questionnaires presented in the next section): A post-petroleum urban model must have an accessible electric public transport network, with pedestrian zones and bicycle ways. This network must locate nodes and connection points in key urban centres. Transport and land use policies must be integrated. The different zones of the city must mix functions, offering commercial, governmental, educational, recreational services, favoring height growth ( four levels) rather than extension, but avoiding high density to avoid social or environmental problems, a deployment known as decentralized concentration (Martı´n, 1981; Van Til, 1982). The city must take into account local climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, insolation, and winds, for an architectural and urban design guided by bioclimatic and ecological
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energy criteria instead of formal caprices so in vogue in postmodern architecture and urban design. As is frequently discussed, the use of solar and other renewable energy sources will be a crucial consideration. Perhaps not so widely recognized but equally important, the city must increase its woodland and green zones for aesthetic, livable and climatic reasons. While bioclimatic architecture and planning define the energy saving and efficiency agenda of the city, the end of wasteful culture must be encouraged with frugal ways of life and the acquisition of better technology. The city must save water, carefully apportion it, and reuse it. This logic must also be applied to the handling of waste. Organic wastes must be reintegrated into the soil, especially to allow the development of an urban/periurban agriculture to feeds the city aiming for self-sufficiency. The protection and regeneration of farm soils, forests, and other ecosystems and their suitable management, while in line with conservationism per se, here has the aim of generating raw materials for the activities of the settlement. The post-petroleum urban model sketched serves as a guide for defining the institutional framework needed for the construction and/or maintenance of cities. It is proposed to deepen not only in the technical dimension of this management, but also its organizational or institutional dimension. As Maurice Strong wrote when he stated at the end of the 1970s the necessity of achieving an effective and just diversification of energy sources: ‘I must emphasize that the diversification of energy sources and the more effective application of energy to human needs—that is, getting more energy to those who need it most—is an organizational problem as much, or more, than it is a technical problem’ (Strong, 1978, p. 167). Accordingly, is not only necessary to concentrate on what is to be done, but also on who and how. Strong emphasizes the necessity of building agreements, creating organizations and implementing policies that allow an appropriate management of technological, energy and urban management at the international level. The study of various components of this organizational or institutional framework (laws, rules, policies, programs, human resources) has been considered by some authors (Cartwright, 1997; Evans et al., 2005; Herna´ndez, 2004; Jepson, 2004; Owens, 1986b; Sheldrick and Macgill, 1984). Here, I propose an approach to identifying the degree to which local governments (municipal, delegational) have the capacity to implement the post-petroleum urban model, with the objective of contrasting this ideal configuration with the reality of each city. In the following section I will discuss the institutional conditions of Mexican cities.
5. Mexican cities study Mexican cities are governed by the governments of the municipalities in which they are found; in the case of the Distrito Federal (Federal District), the territory is divided into boroughs called delegations instead of municipalities. The governments of the 31 states and the Distrito Federal and the federal government define policies, programs and legal frameworks that affect the evolution of urban centres. To study the institutional conditions of Mexican cities in urban-energy terms, I identified, by means of a bibliographical review, the constitutional framework and the policies of the federal government. In addition, I designed a questionnaire based on the proposed urban model, to evaluate municipal governments, delegational governments, state governments and the government of the Distrito Federal. Here I only show a brief
presentation of the constitutional framework and federal policies and the results of the municipal and delegational governments evaluation. 5.1. Constitutional framework and federal government Mexico’s constitution stipulates that the federal government must address the energy needs of the country. Such centralization hinders the ability of local, state and Distrito Federal governments to address their energy problems independently and in an integral fashion. This is a significant oversight given that the use of renewable energies requires exactly the opposite, with energy produced close to the sites of consumption. However, the Ley del ´ blico de Energı´a Ele´ctrica (Public Electric Power Service Servicio Pu Act) indicates that the generation of electric power for selfconsumption is not considered a public service, opening the way for energy management from local governments while fitting into the existing legal framework. In spite of the lack of an integrated strategy to promote the urbanenergy transition from a post-petroleum viewpoint, some Secretariats and Commissions of the federal government (Secretariat of Social Development, Secretariat of Energy, Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources, National Commission for Energy Efficiency, National Commission of Dwelling) have initiatives that could serve as leading axes. 5.2. Municipal and delegational governments 5.2.1. Methodology Questionnaires, made up of closed yes/no questions, were used to study local governments. Questionnaires were divided into the following sections: A. B. C. D. E. F.
General data Transport Architecture, urban planning and land use Renewable energy sources and energy saving and efficiency Urban metabolism Economy and government. In the questionnaires sent to delegations and municipalities with metropolitan areas, according to Ducci (1989) and SEDESOL (Secretarı´a de Desarrollo Social) et al. (2004), I also included: G. Government of metropolitan areas.
Section F is the longest because it was considered desirable to examine aspects of the economical, social, and political situation of the city, as well as natural and environmental issues. Section G seeks to identify coordination between the municipal, delegational and state governments that manage metropolitan areas. I generated slightly different versions of the questionnaire. Questionnaire GM, with 105 questions, was directed at municipalities with metropolitan areas, and with 97 questions to municipalities without metropolitan areas. The questionnaire GD, directed at delegations, had 103 questions, all the delegations are in the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico. The questionnaires had to be tailored because some questions were not applicable in all situations, specifically, section G. The criterion for selecting the cities to be evaluated was based on population. I selected municipalities and delegations that by the year 2020 will have at least one locality with an estimated population of 50,000 inhabitants or more (CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Poblacio´n), 2006). The criterion of 50,000 inhabitants or more corresponds to the subcategory of the Main Urban System group of the National Urban System (50,000 and more
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inhabitants). I considered the locality with the highest population in the case of municipalities that will have more than one so as not to tax city hall staff members with excessive requests for time and information. Thus, of the 222 localities with 50,000
Table 1 Institutional conditions of localities.
Conditions (points)
Localities (89) (percentage)
Very good (57 to 70):
(0) 0%
Good (43 to 56):
(6) 7%
Insufficient (29 to 42):
(31) 35%
Poor (15 to 28): Very poor (0 to 14):
(41) 46% (11) 12%
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inhabitants and more projected for 2020, I selected 214. The year 2020 was taken as reference with the intention of doing a prospective long-term exercise considering the estimated year of world peak oil. From the 214 selected localities, 199 are managed by municipal governments and 15 by delegational governments. Accordingly, 199 GM questionnaires and 15 GD questionnaires were sent. Of the 199 GM questionnaires, 117 correspond to municipalities with metropolitan areas and 82 to municipalities without metropolitan areas. Between 29 November 2007 and 21 August 2008, 82 GM questionnaires and 10 GD questionnaires were received. Most were answered by managerial staff. Questionnaires with less than 80% of the questions answered were not considered, and so 1 GM questionnaire and 2 GD questionnaires were rejected. The total number of questionnaires used for this study was 81 GM (of 199) and 8 GD (of 15). This level of response implies the participation of 42% of governments of selected localities (89 of 214). 54 localities form metropolitan areas. Cities of all sizes in relatively
Table 2 Section B. Transport.
· There is a good relationship between the government and transport worker organizations
(77) 88%
· Public transport can be easily accessed in any part of the city/delegation
(64) 72%
· There are concrete plans to improve the service and safety of public transport
(55) 62%
· There are concrete plans to make traffic faster at rush hours or in congested areas
(52) 58%
· There are concrete plans to increase public transport coverage
(51) 57%
· Strategies to make traffic faster at rush hours or in congested areas are applied
(50) 56% (29) 33%
· There are concrete plans to build a subway, intra-urban train, or trolley bus · There are concrete plans to build bicycle ways and bicycle parking lots in different zones of the city/delegation
(25) 28%
· There is pedestrian infrastructure in good condition throughout the city/delegation
(22) 25%
· There is a policy of public parking lots
(22) 25%
· There are bus stops in good condition throughout the city/delegation
(19) 21%
· There are bicycle-taxis in different zones of the city/delegation
(18) 20%
· People are invited to use their cars less and public transport, bicycles, or walking more
(16) 18%
· Eco-driving is promoted
(16) 18%
· There are bicycle ways and bicycle parking lots in different zones of the city/delegation
(15) 17%
· There are exclusive lanes for public transport
(15) 17%
· There is a subway, intra-urban train, or trolley bus
(13) 15%
· There is a municipal/delegational automobile tax
(7) 8%
· The acquisition of transports that do not consume gasoline, diesel or natural gas is promoted
(7) 8%
· Car-pooling is promoted
(3) 3%
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similar proportions participated; moreover, cities distributed throughout the national territory were evaluated. To identify the degree to which municipal and delegational governments have institutional conditions for managing the urban-energy transition, the questionnaires were read considering the following criterion: All the questions of sections B, C, D and E (56) and only 14 of section F were taken into account. A point was given to the answers that favor the urban-energy management (positive answer), that is to say, all the ‘yes’ answers, with exception of the questions related to water scarcity, problems with waste collection, problems with waste disposal, and subsidies related to energy consumption, where ‘no’ was evaluated as a positive answer. The questionnaires could receive a maximum of 70 points. Based on these scores, I classified local institutional conditions into five categories: very good, good, insufficient, poor and very poor. The remaining questions of section F and questions of section G include elements to identify factors that would likely require financial resources that could affect urban-energy and sustainability policies (for space reasons this information, as the state and Distrito Federal questionnaires, will not be treated here). The aim is to identify general percentages, because these furnish an approximate view of the situation of the institutions that govern the cities of the country.
5.2.2. Results and discussion The analysis indicates that in general terms Mexican cities are not well prepared for the urban-energy transition, with 93% of the governments that participated having insufficient, poor or very poor institutional conditions. Thus, virtually all Mexican cities lack the necessary laws, policies, plans, programs and human resources to reach the proposed post-petroleum urban model (see Table 1). As shown in Table 1, the average of the evaluated localities is 26 points, which indicates, based on the proposed criteria, that local governments in Mexico in general have poor institutional conditions for the urban-energy transition. Small and middlesized localities with less than 500,000 represent a worse situation,
with 79% of the former and 58% of the latter have poor or very poor institutional conditions, while the 23% of middle-sized localities with 500,000 inhabitants or more and the 20% of large localities with 1 million inhabitants or more fall in these categories. The data by sections are as given in Tables 2–6 (the questions are presented following the highest quantity of positive answers obtained; in parentheses the number of localities with positive answers [from 89] and the corresponding percentage is given). The data in Table 2 help us to identify negative factors (issues not considered by most governments) that must be changed through institutional actions: (a) there is no pedestrian infrastructure in good condition throughout the city/delegation, (b) there are no bus stops in good condition throughout the city/delegation, (c) there are no exclusive lanes for public transport, (d) there is no electric public transports, nor concrete plans to build them, (e) there are no bicycle ways, nor concrete plans to build them, (f) there are no bicycle-taxis in different zones of the city/delegation, (g) people are not invited to use their cars less, (h) car-pooling, eco-driving and the acquisition of transports that do not consume gasoline, diesel or natural gas are not promoted, (i) there is no policy of public parking lots, (j) there is no municipal/delegational automobile tax. The data presented in Table 3 help us to identify the negative factors that must be changed: (a) there is no municipal/ delegational legislation to apply bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning, nor these criteria are promoted, (b) the utilization of vacant lots and the reuse of empty buildings are not promoted, (c) there are no enough municipal/delegational land reservations. The data presented in Table 4 show that all issues studied present negative results: (a) there is no municipal/delegational legislation on energy questions, (b) the utilization of renewable energy sources, the use of solar water heaters and energy saving and efficiency in all sectors are not promoted, (c) there are no programs raising awareness on energy saving and efficiency directed to the general population. The data presented in Table 5 help us to identify the negative factors that must be changed: (a) water scarcity, (b) there are no municipal/delegational programs to harness rain water, (c) there
Table 3 Section C. Architecture, urban planning and land use.
· Green areas and urban woodland are conserved and increased
(73) 82%
· There is a municipal/delegation legislation establishing mixed land use
(70) 79%
· The establishing of urban centres is promoted
(58) 65%
· The rescue of deteriorated zones is promoted
(57) 64%
· Ecosystems that surround the urban area are protected or managed
(55) 62%
· There is a municipal/delegational legislation to increase urban density instead of urban dispersion
(50) 56%
· There are enough municipal/delegational land reservations
(30) 34%
· The utilization of vacant lots is promoted
(30) 34%
· The reuse of empty buildings is promoted · The application of bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning is promoted · There is a municipal/delegational legislation to apply bioclimatic criteria in construction and urban planning
(28) 31% (23) 26% (20) 22%
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Table 4 Section D. Renewable energy sources and energy saving and efficiency.
· Energy saving and efficiency in the governmental sector are promoted
(40) 45%
· There are programs raising awareness on energy saving and efficiency directed to the general population
(35) 39%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the residential sector are promoted
(29) 33%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the industrial sector are promoted
(24) 27%
· Energy saving and efficiency in the commercial and services sector are promoted
(22) 25%
· The utilization of renewable energy sources to generate electric power is promoted
(14) 16%
· The use of solar water heaters is promoted
(14) 16%
· There is a municipal/delegational legislation on energy questions
(8) 9%
Table 5 Section E. Urban metabolism.
· Water saving is promoted
(71) 80%
· There are municipal/delegational programs to treat wastewater
(57) 64%
· Reduction of inorganic wastes is promoted
(49) 55%
· Problems with waste collection are lacking
(48) 54%
· The use of organic waste to make compost is promoted
(48) 54% (43) 48%
· There is no water scarcity in the city/delegation · There are municipal/delegational aviculture and/or livestock programs to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(37) 42%
· The consumption of products and materials manufactured or obtained in the region is encouraged
(34) 38%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of urban or periurban agriculture to promote self-sufficiency, etc.
(33) 37%
· There are no problems with waste disposal · Wastes are separated
(29) 33% (28) 31%
· There are municipal/delegational aquaculture programs to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(22) 25%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of timber utilization to promote self-sufficiency, to create employment, etc.
(22) 25%
· There are municipal/delegational programs to harness rain water · There is a municipal/delegational legislation to apply ecological criteria in buildings and infrastructure
(21) 24% (20) 22%
· There are municipal/delegational programs of non timber forest resources utilization to promote self-sufficiency, etc.
(15) 17%
· The government uses indicators regarding urban metabolism
(15) 17%
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Table 6 Section F. Economy and government.
· The government does not grant subsidies regarding energy consumption
(81) 91%
· The government invests in studies on waste handling
(57) 64%
· Forums or public queries to treat some of the issues considered here are organized
(52) 58%
· The government invests in studies on water management
(51) 57%
· There are strategies to confront a reduction in federal contributions
(46) 52%
· The government invests in studies about transport
(46) 52%
· Municipal/delegational functionaries are prepared or qualified about energy issues to create a permanent body of experts
(43) 48%
· The government invests in studies about architecture and urban planning following bioclimatic criteria
(40) 45% (26) 29%
· The government invests in studies about ecological building · The government invests in studies on urban agriculture, agroecology and/or aquaculture
(24) 27%
· The government invests in studies about energy saving and efficiency · The government invests in studies about renewable energy sources · There is a specialized office in the government dedicated to managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally · There are studies carried out or sponsored by the government regarding the possible effects of energy price increase on the city/delegation
is no municipal/delegational legislation to apply ecological criteria in buildings and infrastructure, (d) the consumption of products and materials manufactured or obtained in the region is not encouraged, (e) there are no municipal/delegational programs of timber and non timber forest utilization, (f) there are problems with waste disposal, (g) wastes are not separated, (h) there are no municipal/delegational programs of urban or periurban agriculture, aquaculture and aviculture and/or livestock, (i) governments do not use indicators regarding urban metabolism. Table 6 shows the negative factors that must be changed: (a) there is no investment in studies about architecture and urban planning following bioclimatic criteria, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, ecological building, urban agriculture, agroecology and/or aquaculture, (b) there are no studies carried out or sponsored by local governments regarding the possible effects of energy price increase on the city/delegation, (c) municipal/delegational functionaries are not prepared or qualified about urban-energy issues, (d) there is no specialized office in local governments dedicated to managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally. All these negative factors, which reveal the lack of laws, policies, plans, programs and human resources, define and justify a post-petroleum urban-energy agenda. In general, issues such as increase in urban density, establishment of mixed land use, easy access to public transport and its improvement, rescue of deteriorated zones, and promotion of water saving are encouraged, with more than 60% of cities having programs addressing these issues. In stark contrast, renewable energy, energy saving and efficiency in general, application of bioclimatic and ecological criteria in construction, pedestrian infrastructure in good condition, bicycle ways, electric public
(21) 24%
(9) 10% (8) 9% (6) 7%
transport, and circular urban metabolism lag far behind, with less than 30% of urban areas having programs addressing these issues. Analysis of the investment in studies made by municipal and delegational governments captures the importance given to the issues, this indicate that some of them receive special attention. The perception and impact of some problems and their incidence on daily life undoubtedly obliges the search for a prompt solution that includes transport, waste, water, and urban expansion considerations. However, that some issues, such as bioclimatic design, urban agriculture, and energy, are treated marginally or ignored highlights the crucial importance that urban theory has for directing planning to anticipate complications. Although urban planning in Mexico promotes mixed land use, the creation of urban centres, and density increase, there is no definite tendency toward decentralized concentration, which requires the creation of electric public transport networks connecting urban centres, infrastructure that remains to be constructed. Moreover, cities in this country are far to be independent from automobiles and other motorized vehicles. To approach the post-petroleum urban model, it will be necessary also to integrate and apply bioclimatic and ecological architecture criteria, to encourage widespread energy saving and efficiency and the utilization of renewable energies, to implement programs that lead urban metabolism towards a circular pattern (e.g., treatment and recycling of water and wastes and urban agriculture) and to invest in studies precisely about urban metabolism and urban energetics to orient the public policies that required. Urban planning in Mexico aims to resolve urban growth, social demands, and environmental problems, and seeks to incorporate strategic management. The great challenge that the energy
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transition represents has clearly not yet been visualized, with just 9% of local governments having a specialized office concentrated in managing energy questions and urban metabolism integrally (17% use indicators about it). Energy is not included in organigrams of municipal and delegational governments. While the constitutional framework has limited the participation of local governments in energy management, it is possible to implement actions to begin to think, to plan, to adapt, and to construct cities for the post-petroleum era.
6. Conclusion The peak of world oil production could happen around or before 2020. The peak of Mexican oil production occurred in 2004. Due to the end of cheap oil and subsequent oil scarcity, it is vital to construct a post-petroleum urban model, yet Mexican cities do not have institutional conditions to manage such model. This requires the creation of national and local legal frameworks, the definition of policies, plans and programs, and the formation of human resources to take correct decisions and actions with respect to transport, architecture, urban planning and land use, renewable energy sources, energy saving and efficiency, and urban metabolism to go beyond oil. Within this framework, it is urgent to develop a theory of urban energetics to sustain this view.
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