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Exploring business visions using creative fictional prototypes
Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Exploring business visions using creative fictional prototypes Gary Graham a,*, Anita Greenhill c, Vic Callaghan b a
University of Leeds, United Kingdom University of Essex, United Kingdom c University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Article history: Available online 27 April 2013
This special issue (SI) explores the use of creative fictional prototyping to motivate and direct research into new high-tech products, environments and lifestyles. Fictional prototyping combines storytelling with science fact to explore a wide variety of possible futures. We define what a prototype is, then outline the design challenges. Commentaries are presented on each fictional prototype. Finally we highlight the significance of this SI by making reference to similar studies published in Futures. ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Fictional prototypes Futures Critical thoughts Article summaries
Accelerated by smart city development and the digitalization [16] and miniaturization of electronics and the explosion of communication networks, new technologies have led to the decentralization and virtualization of innovation networks [14]. This ‘‘technology race’’ is leading to the need for new scenario-based tools and techniques to explore tomorrow’s social and economic agendas [3,6,7]. A creative fictional prototype (CFP) uses storytelling imagery based on science fact as a design tool to explore the social and economic consequences of innovation [1,2]. The fictional prototype (refer to Fig. 1) provides a virtual reality in which the implications, problems and benefits of technology can be explored. This exploration could uncover both best and worst case scenarios, but it can also explore the subtleties of how people will use and interact with technology [15]. The design of a prototype is challenging as they require the developer to be both a scientific or technological expert and also to be able to write compelling fictional stories. They differ from other futures studies methods such as scenarios. Scenarios provide a modal narrative of possibility, in which the present context unfolds and emerges into ‘‘plausible’’ futures [5]. However, the prototype provides a lucid normative vision for engaging discussion. According to Egerton et al.: ‘‘. . . fictional prototypes are not simply storytelling but they use stories as a vehicle for inspiration and creative business development’’ [4]. In this SI we have two types of prototype. The first type explores ‘‘hard’’ science and technological fact through vignettes [CFP’s 1–8] and the second type which focuses on the social and economic consequences of science fiction concepts [9–11]. The disciplines of the authors range from business [CFP’s 1, 5, 7 and 10], product design [8], sociology [3], creative arts [9], and computer science [4–6,11]. There is a broad spectrum of topics including: future business models, product and process innovation, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, robots and the development of arts and culture policy in Wales. Each prototype will be considered in the order they appear in the SI: Greenhill et al. Science Fiction Prototypes: Visionary Technology Narratives between Futures makes a distinction between scenarios, which test strategic direction and prototypes, that are designed to offer a mechanism for the analysis of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 01484340506. E-mail address: [email protected] (G. Graham). 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.04.001
2
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
Fig. 1. Fictional prototyping process applied to a traditional product development process. Adapted with permission from Johnson [17] (p. 2).
business visions. They critically explore the prototype concept with respect to both its historical evolution and also its predictive ability. In concluding their article the authors believe that the: ‘‘. . . evolution of futures analysis, while being made more complex by the continuous interplay of science and fiction; it is this interplay which generates rich multi- and interdisciplinary narratives, that the, futures planner can draw upon to solve current and tomorrow’s business problems’’. Rhisiart in his prototype Exploring the Future for Arts and Culture Organizations through Scenarios and Vignettes provides critical insights on first, the use of scenarios and vignettes as creative fictional prototypes, and second, as a vehicle for arts and cultural policy development (in Wales). He suggest that the strength of prototypes, ‘‘. . . is their ability to portray a multi-dimensional vision of a future–in an imagined material form that enables the ‘imagining’ of future conditions in a nonjudgemental way. It is this normative content of visions and prototypes, which provides a fertile ground for further investigation’’. Birtchnell and Urry’s 3D, SF and the Future investigates the social and economic consequences of 3-D printing innovation. This prototype is designed to investigate the implications of: ‘‘What may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making’’. Four stories are used as a basis for data collection, at a scenario workshop, designed to identify future social and commercial variables: ‘‘. . . emerging over the next couple of decades that have at their core 3D printing’’. Stahl’s Virtual Suicide and Other Ethical Issues and Emerging Information Technologies integrates the avatar PETRA into a family and constructs a story around that robot having an existential crisis. His prototype makes some of the topics of ICT and ethics (machine autonomy or artificial agency) become more tangible. The critical argument promoted by Stahl, is that there is a strategic need for organizations, to begin to participate in the societal discussions surrounding their innovations. Jen Wu in her article Promoting interdisciplinary business innovation and entrepreneurship through SFP: a business school perspective reports a number of key findings from vignettes constructed by business school students participating in an ‘‘Imagination Workshop’’. This was focused on participants presenting their images of the world of technology and business in the year 2050. In the prototype ‘‘Engineering Unceratainty: The Role of Uncertainty in the Design of Complex Technological and Business Systems’’, Johnson embraces uncertainty as an engineering and business practice. His story SlimJim provides detailed
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
3
insights into robot learning. Specifically it sets up the complex legal and contractual issues that can occur when robot learning creates new business models and work products. Schwarz’s work Cultural Products and their Implications for Business Models. Why Science Fiction Needs Socio-Cultural Fiction puts forward the case for combining ‘‘science-fiction’’ with ‘‘socio-cultural’’ fiction prototypes. The critical point he makes is that: ‘‘. . . prototypes have not been created for the purpose of serving as a scenario in a HCI design process, but rather they are designed to form part of the customer’s world, which they in return can relate to’’. Schwarz believes that prototypes grounded in contemporary art and other products of cultural originality can serve several purposes in an organization: ‘‘. . . from enabling conversation over a future strategy to fostering conversations about new products and services while providing lively user scenarios’’. The prototype by Kymalainen entitled: Co-created future vision of an intelligent interior design experience provides an augmented reality space, in which a customer could design the interiors of her home. This prototype introduces a new technology platform for interior design: augmented reality (AR) technology in an intelligent service environment. Throughout the article she uses her fictional prototype to critically speculate how user-created service concepts, powered with co-creation theory, may evolve into a new kind of service revenue model. Geoff Nelder’s Auditory Crescendo develops a prototype exploring the social and emotional consequences that occur from the commercial diversification of military hearing aid technology. His prototype highlights the problems that the military face in commercializing their technological innovations. For instance, procurement budget cuts, bureaucracy, political intervention, long run design and development cycles, and the accelerating commercial technology race. The prototype Crime Sourcing developed by Graham applies the concept of ‘‘crowdsourcing’’ to develop a futuristic crime detection model. This model enables the consumer to co-create a crime solution with a private investigator. They do this to achieve a financial return on the capture or termination of a target (criminal). He suggests that crowdsourcing-based prototypes are likely to accelerate with the rapidly emerging digital economy. Finally, McCullagh in Superhighway patrol man focuses on social and ethical issues, with respect to long-term healthcare planning and our ‘‘inevitable technological migration’’ towards a surveillance society. This prototype concerns two brothers from a Bruce Springsteen song, ‘‘Highway Patrolman’’ (Joe a conformist patrolman, Frank a maverick, always getting into trouble). The prototype places the brothers in 2025 in the UK and contrasts this society with the (less complicated) mid-west USA of the 1980s. 1. Previous literature linking science fiction with futures studies There is a long history associating science fiction with futures studies [10,11] and here we review some key seminal works to highlight the significance of this SI. Collie [7] assessed the relationship between science fiction and city urban planning, through questions of community engagement. He provides evidence to support the claim of this SI that the ‘‘fictional narratives of cities’’ provide a powerful ‘‘bridge’’ for understanding and communicating with communities. To find support for his arguments Collie cites the work of de Certeau and other leading cityscape theorists. The article shows the power of science fiction in providing the imagery for future urban design. Bergman et al. [8] also highlights the significance of science fiction to future studies. They do this through the development of a typology of forecasts. The two dimensions they use in their matrix includes: a ‘‘truth claim’’ and an ‘‘explanatory claim’’. Science Fiction is shown to be significant in the matrix because of its ability to make quite accurate ‘‘explanatory’’ but not ‘‘truth claim’’ forecasts. Larson [9] also presents supportive evidence relating to the strong predictive ability of science fiction. He does this through an investigation into the depiction of computers in science fiction movies. What he finds is that for the most part, the film imagery of computer technology development mirrors that of real world trends. The work of Miles [12] further strengthens our claims that science fiction need to be treated as a significant component of futures studies. Miles provides a number of detailed cases which highlight its ability to predict social and technological change, and more importantly to bring social issues to the fore. He also confirms what we have also witnessed in the development of this SI that: ‘‘Futures studies researchers can be reluctant to use science fiction in their work for fear of being stigmatised by its pulp image’’. However Clarke [13] in examining the principal factors shaping the development of twentiethcentury science fiction literature, demonstrates why it is so valuable to the development of effective prototypes: ‘‘. . . speculation is a vital component of science discovery. While science fiction it is claimed has had more definitions than any other literary form, it is the one truly Protean form of speculation that can deal with any conceivable possibility-from anticipations of space travel to the end of our world’’. References [1] B.D. Johnson, Science fiction prototyping: designing the future with SF, in: Synthesis Lecture on Computer Science, Morgan and Claypool Publishers, San Francisco, CA, 2011. [2] B.D. Johnson, Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computers and the Devices We Love, Intel Press, Santa Clara, CA, 2010. [3] E. Krawazyk, R. Slaughter, New generations of futures methods, Futures 42 (2010) 75–82. [4] S. Egerton, V. Callaghan, G. Clarke, Instability and irrationality: destructive and constructive services within intelligent environments., in: 5th International Conference on Intelligent Environment, (IE’09), Barcelona, Spain, 2011. [5] R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van Der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (2005) 795–812.
4 [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
F. Sardar, The namesake: futures; future studies; futurology, futuristic foresight–what’s in a name? Futures 42 (2010) 177–184. N. Collie, Cities of the imagination: science fiction, urban space and community engagement in urban planning, Futures 43 (2011) 424–431. A. Bergman, J.C. Karlsson, I. Axelsson, Truth claims and explanatory claims–an ontological typology of futures studies, Futures 42 (2010) 857–865. J. Larson, Limited imagination: depictions of computers in science fiction film, Futures 40 (2008) 293–299. R. Love, Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action, Futures 33 (2001) 882–889. R. Love, Fantasy and the future, Futures 30 (1998) 175–179. I. Miles, Stranger than fiction. How important is science fiction for futures studies? Futures 25 (1993) 315–321. I.F. Clarke, Factor three: science and fiction, Futures 23 (1991) 637–645. Y. Youngjin, R.J. Boland, K. Lyytinen, A. Majchrzak, Organizing for innovation in the digitized world, Organization Science 23 (5) (2012) 1398–1408. N. Negroponte. Negroponte: MIT media lab is vital to the digital revolution. Wired.co.uk. (accessed: 27.11.12), http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/ 2012/11/ideas-bank/negroponte-20. [16] C. Caplice, The future of transportation and logistics: challenges and recommendations, Presentation at the Atlanta GSCMP Roundtable, (accessed: 21.05.12). [17] B. Johnson, An introduction to CS’11 and SF prototyping. 2nd International Workshop ‘‘Creative Science – Science Fiction Prototyping for Technology Innovation’’ (CS’11) Nottingham–UK. 25th–26th of July 2011, dces.essex.ac.uk/Research/iieg/CS2011.htm. (accessed: 24.03.13).
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Exploring business visions using creative fictional prototypes Gary Graham a,*, Anita Greenhill c, Vic Callaghan b a
University of Leeds, United Kingdom University of Essex, United Kingdom c University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Article history: Available online 27 April 2013
This special issue (SI) explores the use of creative fictional prototyping to motivate and direct research into new high-tech products, environments and lifestyles. Fictional prototyping combines storytelling with science fact to explore a wide variety of possible futures. We define what a prototype is, then outline the design challenges. Commentaries are presented on each fictional prototype. Finally we highlight the significance of this SI by making reference to similar studies published in Futures. ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Fictional prototypes Futures Critical thoughts Article summaries
Accelerated by smart city development and the digitalization [16] and miniaturization of electronics and the explosion of communication networks, new technologies have led to the decentralization and virtualization of innovation networks [14]. This ‘‘technology race’’ is leading to the need for new scenario-based tools and techniques to explore tomorrow’s social and economic agendas [3,6,7]. A creative fictional prototype (CFP) uses storytelling imagery based on science fact as a design tool to explore the social and economic consequences of innovation [1,2]. The fictional prototype (refer to Fig. 1) provides a virtual reality in which the implications, problems and benefits of technology can be explored. This exploration could uncover both best and worst case scenarios, but it can also explore the subtleties of how people will use and interact with technology [15]. The design of a prototype is challenging as they require the developer to be both a scientific or technological expert and also to be able to write compelling fictional stories. They differ from other futures studies methods such as scenarios. Scenarios provide a modal narrative of possibility, in which the present context unfolds and emerges into ‘‘plausible’’ futures [5]. However, the prototype provides a lucid normative vision for engaging discussion. According to Egerton et al.: ‘‘. . . fictional prototypes are not simply storytelling but they use stories as a vehicle for inspiration and creative business development’’ [4]. In this SI we have two types of prototype. The first type explores ‘‘hard’’ science and technological fact through vignettes [CFP’s 1–8] and the second type which focuses on the social and economic consequences of science fiction concepts [9–11]. The disciplines of the authors range from business [CFP’s 1, 5, 7 and 10], product design [8], sociology [3], creative arts [9], and computer science [4–6,11]. There is a broad spectrum of topics including: future business models, product and process innovation, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, robots and the development of arts and culture policy in Wales. Each prototype will be considered in the order they appear in the SI: Greenhill et al. Science Fiction Prototypes: Visionary Technology Narratives between Futures makes a distinction between scenarios, which test strategic direction and prototypes, that are designed to offer a mechanism for the analysis of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 01484340506. E-mail address: [email protected] (G. Graham). 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.04.001
2
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
Fig. 1. Fictional prototyping process applied to a traditional product development process. Adapted with permission from Johnson [17] (p. 2).
business visions. They critically explore the prototype concept with respect to both its historical evolution and also its predictive ability. In concluding their article the authors believe that the: ‘‘. . . evolution of futures analysis, while being made more complex by the continuous interplay of science and fiction; it is this interplay which generates rich multi- and interdisciplinary narratives, that the, futures planner can draw upon to solve current and tomorrow’s business problems’’. Rhisiart in his prototype Exploring the Future for Arts and Culture Organizations through Scenarios and Vignettes provides critical insights on first, the use of scenarios and vignettes as creative fictional prototypes, and second, as a vehicle for arts and cultural policy development (in Wales). He suggest that the strength of prototypes, ‘‘. . . is their ability to portray a multi-dimensional vision of a future–in an imagined material form that enables the ‘imagining’ of future conditions in a nonjudgemental way. It is this normative content of visions and prototypes, which provides a fertile ground for further investigation’’. Birtchnell and Urry’s 3D, SF and the Future investigates the social and economic consequences of 3-D printing innovation. This prototype is designed to investigate the implications of: ‘‘What may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making’’. Four stories are used as a basis for data collection, at a scenario workshop, designed to identify future social and commercial variables: ‘‘. . . emerging over the next couple of decades that have at their core 3D printing’’. Stahl’s Virtual Suicide and Other Ethical Issues and Emerging Information Technologies integrates the avatar PETRA into a family and constructs a story around that robot having an existential crisis. His prototype makes some of the topics of ICT and ethics (machine autonomy or artificial agency) become more tangible. The critical argument promoted by Stahl, is that there is a strategic need for organizations, to begin to participate in the societal discussions surrounding their innovations. Jen Wu in her article Promoting interdisciplinary business innovation and entrepreneurship through SFP: a business school perspective reports a number of key findings from vignettes constructed by business school students participating in an ‘‘Imagination Workshop’’. This was focused on participants presenting their images of the world of technology and business in the year 2050. In the prototype ‘‘Engineering Unceratainty: The Role of Uncertainty in the Design of Complex Technological and Business Systems’’, Johnson embraces uncertainty as an engineering and business practice. His story SlimJim provides detailed
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
3
insights into robot learning. Specifically it sets up the complex legal and contractual issues that can occur when robot learning creates new business models and work products. Schwarz’s work Cultural Products and their Implications for Business Models. Why Science Fiction Needs Socio-Cultural Fiction puts forward the case for combining ‘‘science-fiction’’ with ‘‘socio-cultural’’ fiction prototypes. The critical point he makes is that: ‘‘. . . prototypes have not been created for the purpose of serving as a scenario in a HCI design process, but rather they are designed to form part of the customer’s world, which they in return can relate to’’. Schwarz believes that prototypes grounded in contemporary art and other products of cultural originality can serve several purposes in an organization: ‘‘. . . from enabling conversation over a future strategy to fostering conversations about new products and services while providing lively user scenarios’’. The prototype by Kymalainen entitled: Co-created future vision of an intelligent interior design experience provides an augmented reality space, in which a customer could design the interiors of her home. This prototype introduces a new technology platform for interior design: augmented reality (AR) technology in an intelligent service environment. Throughout the article she uses her fictional prototype to critically speculate how user-created service concepts, powered with co-creation theory, may evolve into a new kind of service revenue model. Geoff Nelder’s Auditory Crescendo develops a prototype exploring the social and emotional consequences that occur from the commercial diversification of military hearing aid technology. His prototype highlights the problems that the military face in commercializing their technological innovations. For instance, procurement budget cuts, bureaucracy, political intervention, long run design and development cycles, and the accelerating commercial technology race. The prototype Crime Sourcing developed by Graham applies the concept of ‘‘crowdsourcing’’ to develop a futuristic crime detection model. This model enables the consumer to co-create a crime solution with a private investigator. They do this to achieve a financial return on the capture or termination of a target (criminal). He suggests that crowdsourcing-based prototypes are likely to accelerate with the rapidly emerging digital economy. Finally, McCullagh in Superhighway patrol man focuses on social and ethical issues, with respect to long-term healthcare planning and our ‘‘inevitable technological migration’’ towards a surveillance society. This prototype concerns two brothers from a Bruce Springsteen song, ‘‘Highway Patrolman’’ (Joe a conformist patrolman, Frank a maverick, always getting into trouble). The prototype places the brothers in 2025 in the UK and contrasts this society with the (less complicated) mid-west USA of the 1980s. 1. Previous literature linking science fiction with futures studies There is a long history associating science fiction with futures studies [10,11] and here we review some key seminal works to highlight the significance of this SI. Collie [7] assessed the relationship between science fiction and city urban planning, through questions of community engagement. He provides evidence to support the claim of this SI that the ‘‘fictional narratives of cities’’ provide a powerful ‘‘bridge’’ for understanding and communicating with communities. To find support for his arguments Collie cites the work of de Certeau and other leading cityscape theorists. The article shows the power of science fiction in providing the imagery for future urban design. Bergman et al. [8] also highlights the significance of science fiction to future studies. They do this through the development of a typology of forecasts. The two dimensions they use in their matrix includes: a ‘‘truth claim’’ and an ‘‘explanatory claim’’. Science Fiction is shown to be significant in the matrix because of its ability to make quite accurate ‘‘explanatory’’ but not ‘‘truth claim’’ forecasts. Larson [9] also presents supportive evidence relating to the strong predictive ability of science fiction. He does this through an investigation into the depiction of computers in science fiction movies. What he finds is that for the most part, the film imagery of computer technology development mirrors that of real world trends. The work of Miles [12] further strengthens our claims that science fiction need to be treated as a significant component of futures studies. Miles provides a number of detailed cases which highlight its ability to predict social and technological change, and more importantly to bring social issues to the fore. He also confirms what we have also witnessed in the development of this SI that: ‘‘Futures studies researchers can be reluctant to use science fiction in their work for fear of being stigmatised by its pulp image’’. However Clarke [13] in examining the principal factors shaping the development of twentiethcentury science fiction literature, demonstrates why it is so valuable to the development of effective prototypes: ‘‘. . . speculation is a vital component of science discovery. While science fiction it is claimed has had more definitions than any other literary form, it is the one truly Protean form of speculation that can deal with any conceivable possibility-from anticipations of space travel to the end of our world’’. References [1] B.D. Johnson, Science fiction prototyping: designing the future with SF, in: Synthesis Lecture on Computer Science, Morgan and Claypool Publishers, San Francisco, CA, 2011. [2] B.D. Johnson, Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computers and the Devices We Love, Intel Press, Santa Clara, CA, 2010. [3] E. Krawazyk, R. Slaughter, New generations of futures methods, Futures 42 (2010) 75–82. [4] S. Egerton, V. Callaghan, G. Clarke, Instability and irrationality: destructive and constructive services within intelligent environments., in: 5th International Conference on Intelligent Environment, (IE’09), Barcelona, Spain, 2011. [5] R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van Der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (2005) 795–812.
4 [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]
G. Graham et al. / Futures 50 (2013) 1–4
F. Sardar, The namesake: futures; future studies; futurology, futuristic foresight–what’s in a name? Futures 42 (2010) 177–184. N. Collie, Cities of the imagination: science fiction, urban space and community engagement in urban planning, Futures 43 (2011) 424–431. A. Bergman, J.C. Karlsson, I. Axelsson, Truth claims and explanatory claims–an ontological typology of futures studies, Futures 42 (2010) 857–865. J. Larson, Limited imagination: depictions of computers in science fiction film, Futures 40 (2008) 293–299. R. Love, Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action, Futures 33 (2001) 882–889. R. Love, Fantasy and the future, Futures 30 (1998) 175–179. I. Miles, Stranger than fiction. How important is science fiction for futures studies? Futures 25 (1993) 315–321. I.F. Clarke, Factor three: science and fiction, Futures 23 (1991) 637–645. Y. Youngjin, R.J. Boland, K. Lyytinen, A. Majchrzak, Organizing for innovation in the digitized world, Organization Science 23 (5) (2012) 1398–1408. N. Negroponte. Negroponte: MIT media lab is vital to the digital revolution. Wired.co.uk. (accessed: 27.11.12), http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/ 2012/11/ideas-bank/negroponte-20. [16] C. Caplice, The future of transportation and logistics: challenges and recommendations, Presentation at the Atlanta GSCMP Roundtable, (accessed: 21.05.12). [17] B. Johnson, An introduction to CS’11 and SF prototyping. 2nd International Workshop ‘‘Creative Science – Science Fiction Prototyping for Technology Innovation’’ (CS’11) Nottingham–UK. 25th–26th of July 2011, dces.essex.ac.uk/Research/iieg/CS2011.htm. (accessed: 24.03.13).