- Email: [email protected]
Exploring imaginative futures writing through the fictional prototype ‘crime-sourcing’
Futures 50 (2013) 94–100
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Exploring imaginative futures writing through the fictional prototype ‘crime-sourcing’ Gary Graham * Leeds University, Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, Leeds LS29JT, United Kingdom
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Article history: Available online 19 April 2013
This fictional prototype presents a future proposition of people interacting with technologically designed or socially engineered producer entities. Entities customised specifically to solve complex societal problems. In this case that of crime and punishment. The prototype speculates how entrepreneurial firms will be able to exploit ‘crowdsourcing’ technologies. It also explores ‘crowdsourcing’ entities by means of a fictional reflection of how life might unfold in the criminal interaction space. The vignette is based on a factual discussion/analysis of the research inspiring these views. In the final section the author explains how this prototype will be developed through field research. ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction Crime-sourcing, the story presented in this paper concerns the futuristic tracking of a murder suspect by a security agency whose criminal intelligence comes from ‘crowdsourcing’ (the act of outsourcing a task to a large, undefined group of people through an open call in cyberspace [21]); this is also an example of a science fiction prototype (SFP) or creative fiction prototype (CFP).1 Creative prototypes are an ‘imaginative leap’ based upon facts with the purpose of discovering a new innovative path and possibilities that we would not have imagined if we had not explored them in a fictional setting [2]. Teece [3] suggests there is a dearth of forecasting literature on long range scientific and technological developments. Further he suggests that: ‘to profit from future technology business pioneers need to be able to excel not only at product or design innovation, but also from a clearer understanding of its human and ethical implications.’ McGrath [5] also calls for ‘discoverybased’ forecasting approaches: ‘in which the social and economic aspects of future long range technological innovation can be estimated.’ Johnson [1] suggests that the SF prototyping process creates science fiction based on science fact with two main goals. First, SF prototypes advance the development of science and technology by envisioning the impact of science and technology on people, culture and business systems. A SF prototype gives development teams a way to envision their work in the real business world through fiction. The second goal of SF prototypes is to offer a possible vision for the future that is based on science and reason. Johnson writes: ‘this type of fiction gives us a language to talk about the future. We can ask ourselves what kind of future we want to live in or maybe even more importantly we can explore the many futures we don’t want to live in.’2
* Tel.: +44 (0)113 343 8557. E-mail address: [email protected]. 1 We use the term ‘creative fiction’ interchangeably with ‘science fiction’ (SF) prototyping (first developed by Brian Johnson at Intel) [1]. ‘Creative fiction’ prototypes are specifically designed for the business management context. 2 [1, p. 99]. 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.04.002
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Fig. 1. Science fiction literature constructs underpinning prototype development.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a fictional prototype based on the science of ‘crowdsourcing.’ This prototype aims to critically evaluate the social and economic consequences of ‘crowd’ based business models through the synthesis of theory with fictional narratives. Borrowing from Howe’s concept [21], crime-sourcing can be defined as the act of taking the whole or part of a criminal act and outsourcing it to a crowd of either witting or unwitting individuals. The growth in crimesourcing is shaking up long-standing business models and traditions within the criminal underground and is leading to innovations in crime. Further we investigate a vision of individual ‘free will’ being in conflict, with the will of the virtual masses.3 In the next section, we review the fictional literature presenting strategic visions of the future consumer technological landscape and business model development, before providing a critical evaluation of the prototyping methodology. Section 3 presents the science behind this creative prototype. The vignette ‘crime-sourcing’ is then presented in Section 4. Finally the author explains how this fictional prototype will be developed through field research.
2. Literature review: strategic visions of the future consumer technology landscape While prototyping was initially proposed by Johnson [1], Wu and Callaghan [4] and Egerton et al. [6] solely for long-range product development, forecasters now use this methodology to speculate about future social and economic landscapes.4 McCullagh [8] believes that this partly reflects the change in evolution in the ‘technology race’ (over the last thirty years) from products (mobiles, smart phones, iPads) to socio-economic landscapes (‘smart cities’ and ‘the Internet of things’). Multiple definitions exist of the term smart city. In developing his prototype Internet of ‘Mysterious Things’ (exploring futuristic technological advances (in Berlin) in the fields of sensor technology, personal areas network communication, and ambient assisted health and well-being), McCullagh defines a smart city as a: ‘a developed urban area that creates sustainable economic development and high quality of life by excelling in multiple key areas; economy, mobility, environment, people, living, and government. Excelling in these key areas can be done through strong human and social capital, and/or ICT infrastructure’ ([8], p. 359). Further communication within the personal area network and to/from the Internet, realises the concept of an ‘Internet of Things.’ This links the objects of the real world with the virtual world, thus enabling anytime, anyplace connectivity for anything and not only for anyone ([8], p. 255). Fig. 1 suggests that CFPs are grounded in either ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ science fiction. ‘Hard’ SF writers [17–20] ground their work in the cutting edge of science and technology (albeit with varying degrees of artistic license). For instance, in the Great Heinlein Mystery [9] author Edward M. Wysocki Jr. investigates the claim by the late science fiction author Robert Anson Heinlein (1907–1988) that the content from one of his early fictional stories (written while studying at the US naval academy at Annapolis in 1929) inspired the invention of a naval system used during WW2. ‘Hard’ science fiction tends to be most applicable to product and development prototyping [1,4,6]. While ‘soft’ science fiction relates to prototypes considering future consumer technological landscapes. It also provides the underpinning fictional constructs of crime-sourcing. Soft science fiction, is based on the ‘soft’ sciences, and especially the social sciences (anthropology, sociology, psychology, political science), rather than engineering or the ‘hard’ sciences (for example, physics, astronomy, or chemistry) [16]. Soft
3 Egerton notes that this is the power of making free choices that are unconstrained by external circumstances or by an agency such as fate or the divine will of crowds [6]. 4 The use of speculation in has been shown to play a significant role in the development of science. Moreover, in 2004 Richard Panek wrote a book called ‘The Invisible Century’ where he demonstrated how both Einstein and Freud used speculation as a key step in the scientific process [7].
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science fiction is often more concerned with character, and speculative societies rather than scientific or engineering speculations [10]. For instance, in the 1960s the utopian work by Robert Heinlein Strangers in a Strange Land5 not only influenced new technologies but whole new realities [11]. Wysocki [9] writes: ‘Even the idea of creating ‘future histories’ and laying out the political, technological, and historical development of peoples and worlds (i.e. ‘world building’) can be traced to the influence of Heinlein novels.’6 The 1980s brought about the replacement of the utopian orthodoxy by a message of ‘anti-utopian’ deprivation. This is best epitomised in William Gibson’s Neuromancer [15] and the dystopian ‘sprawl’ of Chiba City: ‘Synonymous with implants, nerve-splicing, and micro-bionics, Chiba City was a magnet for the Sprawl’s techno-criminal subcultures. In Chiba, he’d watched his New Yen vanish in a two-month round of examinations. Case ends up living in the cheapest coffin down by the wharf, where arc lights shine perpetual glare. He can’t jack into the Net, he’s hustled himself down to the lowest level, and Night City has brought out the worst in him fast. In the first month, he’d killed two men and a woman over sums that a year before would have seemed ludicrous.’7 J.G. Ballard in his novels of the savage gated communities of Cocaine Nights [13] and to Kingdom Come [14] suggests a future consumer landscape that will be a type of urban non-place (that has come to be associated with the anthropologist Marc Auge´ [30]). Ballard’s mapping of micro-national space, he describe as predicated on a vocabulary of secession, and filled with depictions of colonies, anomalous enclaves, virtual city-states, zones of transition. Micro-nations are sometimes called model nations, since they mimic the structure of independent nations and states, but are not recognised as such by established states [13]: ‘The political (or, rather, anti-political) potential of these spaces is interesting, since their structure and interaction with the outside world strongly parallels the successes and failures of the real-world phenomenon of micro-nations. The term micro- nation refers to an attempt, usually by small groups of individuals, to found small, often ephemeral nations, often without land, but sometimes claiming the types of non-space.’8 3. Critical evaluation of the CFP methodology The development of a prototype fundamentally depends on the ability of developer to speculate and formulate imaginative visions of how they feel future technology will influence their everyday life. However CFP’s are the subject of much controversy. On the one hand there are those who see these prototypes as a promising ‘futures’ innovation improving strategic decision making and business forecasting; while on the other hand, there are sceptics who see them at best a pleasant intellectual exercise, lacking substantive practical management value [3]. The scepticism and criticism we feel stems from a misunderstanding and non-acquaintance with the activities and uses of CFP activity and objectives. According to Egerton et al. [6] fictional prototypes are not simply story-telling but they use stories as a scenario and a vehicle for inspiration and creative business development. The outstanding distinction between story-led scenario planning and CFPs is a distinction on which there seems to be general agreement. Scenario-based story telling is usually associated with a relatively short time span of up to five to ten years, while prototypes focus solely on the long-term time frames, typically ranging from ten to fifty years and sometimes even longer. Intentions and purposes are frequently ascribed to CFPs which do not reflect the objectives of those who are engaged in them. Thus, for example, the latter are viewed as ‘modern prophets’ who pretentiously state with confidence what is going to happen in the future. This is an incorrect view particularly as what characterises students of the future is their great caution with which they consider alternative futures and circumspectly refrain from portraying a single future [5]. The criticisms and reservations about the proposed method of fictional prototyping are reminiscent to some extent of the attitude towards long range technology forecasting. Technology forecasting has apparently received more public legitimisation or has at least has begun to be viewed positively. There is no certainty that creative prototyping will come to be viewed in the same positive way, but as it is a relatively new methodology, it is too early to fully evaluate its potential usefulness to management practice. However, the increasing demand for futures studies by governments, public and private organisations that are prepared to provide financial support may be seen as an indication of the importance with which this method is coming to be regarded. The important question posed by prototypes is not whether there is a need for CFPs or not but rather whether it is preferable to explore the future explicitly and systematically or leave the future to chance. In our view scenario planning for all its importance does not and cannot deal with all aspects of the future. For this reason, prototypes fulfil needs and functions for which planning is not suited. In this sense planning and CFP represented in Fig. 2 should be regarded as complementary rather than a substitute to scientific forecasting techniques. Without prototype studies the tendency may be to rely in a random way on a single view of the future results in limiting the freedom of choice for forecasting. The need and justification for prototyping is in that ‘the future is too important to be left to chance alone.’ Most good prototypes focus on people and it is this focus that gives us a novel and innovative way to explore the future of business.
5 The novel’s success in the 1960s was largely the result of a synchronistic meshing between the ideas and lifestyles depicted in the book and those that were beginning to find prominence in the counter-culture. 6 [9, p. 126]. 7 [15, p. 69]. 8 Simon Sellars and Dan O’Hara (eds.), Extreme Metaphors: Interviews with J.G. Ballard 1967–2008 (London: Fourth Estate, 2012), pp. 367–368 [29].
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Fig. 2. The role of CFP’s in developing the future of business.
3.1. The science behind the crime-sourcing CFP Crowdsourcing began as a legitimate tool to leverage the wisdom of crowds to solve complex business and scientific challenges. The concept of crowdsourcing first gained widespread attention in an article written in 2006, by Jeff Howe for Wired Magazine [21]. The increasing application by firms of crowdsourcing is changing the traditional conception of ‘business as usual’ in a wide variety of industries. In a noted example, Don Tapscott, in his book Wikinomics [22], described how one Canadian gold mining company facing a looming shutdown desperately turned to the general public to help solve a critical business problem. The firm, Goldcorp, was so frustrated with the inability of its own geologists to locate any gold that it did something unheard of at the time: it offered $500,000 to anyone who could find and map the location of the company’s own gold in its own mines. To facilitate the effort, Goldcorp posted their full datasets online. After receiving submissions from more than a thousand people in 50 different countries, Goldcorp achieved the success that had so eluded the firm previously. A member of the public used Goldcorp’s data to make an incredible discovery and to locate more than $3 billion worth of gold using techniques never previously employed in the mining industry. While crowdsourcing has allowed organised crime groups to commit more crimes with less risk, law enforcement officials are now leveraging the power of crowdsourcing to fight crime as well. The New York Police Department (NYPD) has already launched a social media unit to track criminals on Facebook and Twitter. More recently, in 2011 as the streets of the UK burned in the aftermath of violent protests, citizens of London banded together online to identify looters [23]. In one of the most impressive uses of ‘investigation-sourcing’ to date, the Canadian public came together to identify the thousands of protesters who caused millions of dollars of damage as a result of the Vancouver Canucks losing the NHL championship in June 2011. Using a variety of image processing techniques, the firm Gigapixel was able to assemble 216 publicly submitted photographs and assemble them into one seamless high-resolution image. The phenomenal resolution of the resultant picture allowed the faces of tens of thousands of riot participants to be viewed in high resolution [24]. The identification of more than 10,000 participants by name was completed by tagging individuals in Facebook, breaking a record for the number of tags in a given image to date. Many of those identified in the photos have now been successfully arrested and prosecuted by Canadian authorities. The use of crowdsourcing and citizen science is also an issue of national importance with regards to the management of ‘big data.’ Herodotou et al. [25] highlight ‘timely and cost-effective analytics over ‘Big Data’ has emerged as a key ingredient for success in many businesses, scientific and engineering disciplines, and government endeavours. Web search engines and social networks capture and analyse every user action on their sites to improve site design, spam and fraud detection, and advertising opportunities.’9
4. Creative fiction prototype: crime sourcing The primary focus of this prototype is to explore the potential of crowdsourcing to create a business model. When crowds detect the presence of a lucrative ‘pay-off’ (murder suspect) in the ‘border’ transitional zone of San Diego a ‘Heptapod’10 is sent to investigate.
9 10
[25, p. 1]. The heptapods are a fictional human/machine ‘hybrid’ race which first featured in Ted Chiang’s short story Story of Your Life [26].
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4.1. Crete 2030: ambushed Cilia, the angelic face of the village of Vilandredou near to the seaport town of Rethymnon filled his soul. She paralysed the thoughts of Nikos. The sun crested the mountains, sweeping the road with golden light. Dew spotted on the foliage of junipers and pines, while the remnants of the night took refuge in dark crevices between the boulders. Nikos squinted repeatedly in the relentless sun as he sauntered aimlessly along the cracked and chipped eroded old road in empathy with the rugged surrounding terrain and cutting vistas. The dazzling glare of a blade flashed before his eyes. As the knife punctured him he felt his chest implode inwards. Darkness turned into white light. He fell to his knees. Life poured out of him. And the smiling faces of Cilia the final image. 4.2. San Diego 2050 Jacque Levafre had arrived in the smart city zone of San Diego 4 h ago. Levafre worked with the elite investigators of the Tamer Agency. Lefavre climbed slowly up the steep hillside scrambling amongst the rocks, dodging thorn bushes, lizards and the occasional snake, in the towering shadows of the magnificent redwoods. When he finally reached the old ruins of the Presido, screams and shouts of gathered crowd disturbed the tranquillity of the historic Californian setting. They were chanting the name of ‘Carol’ ‘Carol.’ Then she appeared, Carol O’Brien. Jacque felt that he was under hypnotics and the spell of Aphrodite. Carol healed a number of lame and paralysed members of the congregation. The service became a blur. Crime report implementation/closure was planned to be acted tomorrow. The crowd was getting excited as they virtually followed all his moves through the optic portals in the data transmitting sunglasses. It was nearly time for report payoff. 4.3. Chi’ing – one month earlier Jacque felt the vibration of his ‘holo-receiver’ in the inside pocket of his long black leather jacket. The image it projected was that of a lean, tall man. As the image became clearer the rugged but still handsome features of the sun beaten face startled him. What caught his eye was its similarity to his father. But then he noted subtle differences. This man had a more pointed nose and smaller eyes. His father always impeccably dressed. While this man wore a dusty windbreaker and a battered, wide brimmed hat that concealed part of his face. Jacque, its Chi’ing Chi’ing had risen quickly from a junior executive in chameleon operations to being the CEO of the Tamer Agency. However his attention was distracted by the sexy female android that was hot off the production line in Mongolia serving him a double blue. This was a strong and powerful fusion of vodka and blue gin. ‘Something came up from the crowd generated content the other day. This old lady refugee from Vilandredou, filed some holographic imagery data into your father’s file this morning.’ ‘Interestingly the AI established a full profile match with Cilia! Sensors detected her in the gaslight district. It’s time to close the open report on her. We have millions of pounds on this one.’ Jacque recalled that she headed up the Camorra in Southern Italy until she disappeared. The ROI on report closure of Cilia would put the agency right at the top of the financial rankings of the composite security and criminal intelligence index, of the NASDAQ. In the darkness that surrounded him, he could smell the wind carrying the earth’s resurgence and he looked across a sky with stars so huge and bright he felt he was home in Crete. 4.4. Carol/Cilia Carol had agreed to be intercepted by Jacque on her regular 7 am walk through the dense redwood forest next to the savage enclave of Trailer City. It would only be a matter of time he thought until closure. His glacial thoughts were on the bounty. But as he walked with Carol he began to feel his stomach turn and he felt embarrassed. He felt different to all his previous cases. He had fought against hardened killing machines, murderers and enforcers/hit men, the toughest of the tough but he had never failed to reach closure. This was harder. Her beauty had transfixed him. Physically this was the weakest case of the lot, but psychologically the hardest for him to implement. Then he thought of his father and his heart froze a little. With an awe and nervousness unlike any feeling he had ever experienced before, he was struggling to control his affections towards her. They talked of her work in the war project zones around San Diego. She told of her colony for the lepers escaping the outbreak of leprosy in Mexico. ‘Jacque, I want to show you something wonderful.’ They climbed down the fern coated banking, among a rainbow clothing of red bracken, orange perennials, yellow buttercups, lime green nicotianas, bluebells, wild indigo flowers, and sweet violets. There was a crystal clear pool. She dived into the pool fully clothed and swam around with mermaid elegance. ‘It’s so exhilarating, so natural, I feel so alive,’ Carol shouted. Jacque heard her words but was not listening. He removed his sun glasses.
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They stared at each other. ‘I researched your Tamer crowd profile before you came to interview me. You’re human mother is from Crete?’ ‘Yes, she’s from Crete.’ ‘Have you ever visited the island?’ ‘No, never.’ ‘Jacque lets end your report in Vilandredou.’ The express train to Vilandredou left the station at 7.30 am. Jacque noticed a man standing beside the buggy where he had left Carol, as he had gone to buy some tobacco. He was taller than any of the men around him, though he had a battered, widebrimmed hat that concealed his face. There was a tension in the way he waited, wariness in the way he stood, that he did not belong to the crowd of Carol’s excited followers standing around her. Without being certain why the sight of the man alarmed him. Jacque began pushing through the crowd towards the buggy. His shout to Carol was lost in the thundering volleys of train engines firing into life. As Jacque reached Carol at the buggy, the tall man stepped calmly into their paths. Jacque reached for her hand. The tall man raised his head, sunlight exposing his face. The old photograph of his proud father on his wedding day in his house in Crete appeared to him. He did not hear the shots that he knew were fired, but he saw Carol stagger and then fall. Then, Chi’ing raised the gun above his head, brandishing it for an instant in a fierce and defiant gesture before the crowd. Afterward he ran around the buggy to the horse he had ridden to the station. He leaped on the animal’s back and spurred it swiftly away, racing along the path that led towards the mountain. When Jacque reached the buggy, joining the men who crouched about Carol, Jacque knelt on the ground beside her. And in that moment, from her lips came a scream that tore the stillness into shreds, a lament of such anguish that Jacque would hear it again and again until the hour of his own death. 5. Conclusion and implications for future research In this prototype my core proposition is that in the future consumers will actively pro (sume) the design of products through ‘crowd-based’ models. A mixture of innovative designs, services, experiences and products will be created through crowds of consumers being fully involved and participating in their design, creation and future development. This story speculates about future ‘crowdsourcing’ models. That facilitates future innovation, creativity and imagination in criminal problem solving. The crowd acts as an intelligent ‘mind-bridge’ bringing the suspect and investigator together through the criminal intelligence/evidence they have supplied. A future of ‘crowd-sourced’ products and service experiences represents a fundamental design paradigm shift than that which we have at present and the risks and gains from developing such prototypes and technologies will be a fascinating prospect. Howe [21] and Tapscott and Williams [22] stress that consumers have different levels of sophistication in engaging with technology, but this article moves beyond existing studies of technology bridging the producer/consumer interface in examining how pro/consumers may in the future instigate physical moves into the ‘crowdsourcing’ space rather than the current state of play where they are looking to save costs through incorporating information and communication technologies. It also provides further support to work on the human and ethical consequences of future technology by Egerton et al. [6], that individual ‘free will’ whether machine or human will continue to be in conflict with the divine will of the ‘crowd.’ There will remain those rare individuals who will defy commercial pressure and will not surrender their independent thinking to the blind monetary-driven mass compliance [27,28]. In developing our analysis of ‘crowdsourcing,’ instead of running ‘artificial’ studies in laboratories or other controlled environments we plan to conduct field work at two university (city) outreach centres in Manchester and Leeds. The aim will be to work with communities to develop evidence based prototypes that will explore future ‘crowdsourcing’ scenarios. My main goal will be to engage as wide a section of the public as possible in thinking about their future and becoming involved (through prototyping) in the intellectually stimulating fields of science, technology and business. I believe that context aware computing is quickly becoming part of popular reality as technologies evolve and create new user experiences, and in large, change the human experience. References [1] B.D. Johnson, Science Fiction Prototyping: Designing the Future with SF. Synthesis Lecture on Computer Science, Morgan and Claypool Publishers, San Rafael, CA, 2011. [2] B.D. Johnson, Screen Future: the Future of Entertainment, Computers and the Devices We Love, Intel Press, Santa Clara, CA, 2010. [3] D. Teece, Business models, business strategy and innovation, Long Range Planning 43 (2/3) (2010) 172–194. [4] H.-Y. Wu, V. Callaghan, The spiritual machine, in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 155–166. [5] R. McGrath, Business models: a discovery driven approach, Long Range Planning 43 (2/3) (2010) 247–261. [6] S. Egerton, M. Davies, B. Johnson, V. Callaghan, Jimmy: searching for free-will (a competition), in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 128–154. [7] R. Paneck, The Invisible Century, Penguin, New York, 2004. [8] P. McCullagh, Internet of ‘mysterious’ things, in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 255–266. [9] E. Wysocki, The Great Heinlein Mystery: Science Fiction, Innovation and Naval Technology, Createspace, Seattle, 2012.
100 [10] [11] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30]
G. Graham / Futures 50 (2013) 94–100 U. Le Guin, The Dispossessed, Harper and Row, New York, 1974. R. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land, Putman Publishing Co., New York, 1961. J.G. Ballard, Cocaine Nights, Counter Point, Berkley, CA, 1998. J.G. Ballard, Kingdom Come, Fourth Estate, London, 2008. W. Gibson, Neuromancer, Ace Books, New York, 1984. F. Jameson, Archaeologies of the Future: the Desire Called Utopia and Other Science Fictions, Verso, New York, 2005. A.C. Clarke, Rendezvous with Rama, Gollancz, London, 1973. I. Asimov, I, Robot, Gnome Press, New York, 1950. C. Doctorow, Overclocked: Stories of the Future Present, Thunder’s Mouth Press, New York, 2007. B. Aldiss, A Science Fiction Omnibus, Penguin, London, 2007. J. Howe, The rise of crowdsourcing, Wired. http://www.wired.com/archive, 2006 (accessed 21.05.12). D. Tapscott, A. Williams, Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Atlantic Books, New York, 2006. J. Britto, After riots, London crowdsources clean-up, identifying looters, Techland.time.com. http://techland.time.com/2011/08/09/after-riots-londoncrowdsources-cleanup-identifying-looters/, 2011 (accessed 9.08.12). M. Hager, Anatomy of a riot. http://www.vancouversun.com/archive, 2011 (accessed 7.06.12). H. Herodotou, H. Lim, L. Luo, N. Borisov, L. Dong, F.B. Cetin, S. Babu, Starfish: a self-tuning system for big data analytics, in: Proceedings of the Fifth Biennial Conference on Innovative Data Systems Research (CIDR), January 2011. T. Chiang, Story of Your Life, Starlight 2, New York, 1998. J. Pearl, Giving computers free will. http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/18/computers-free-will-opinions/archive, 2012 (accessed 11.11.12). A. Rand, The Fountainhead, Bobbs Merrill, New York, 1943. S. Sellars, D. O’Hara (Eds.), Extreme Metaphors: Interviews with J.G. Ballard 1967–2008, Fourth Estate, London, 2012, pp. 367–368. M. Auge, Non-places: Introduction to an Anthropology of Supermodernity, Verso, London and New York, 1995p. 30, 26 (J. Howe, Trans.).
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Exploring imaginative futures writing through the fictional prototype ‘crime-sourcing’ Gary Graham * Leeds University, Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, Leeds LS29JT, United Kingdom
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Article history: Available online 19 April 2013
This fictional prototype presents a future proposition of people interacting with technologically designed or socially engineered producer entities. Entities customised specifically to solve complex societal problems. In this case that of crime and punishment. The prototype speculates how entrepreneurial firms will be able to exploit ‘crowdsourcing’ technologies. It also explores ‘crowdsourcing’ entities by means of a fictional reflection of how life might unfold in the criminal interaction space. The vignette is based on a factual discussion/analysis of the research inspiring these views. In the final section the author explains how this prototype will be developed through field research. ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction Crime-sourcing, the story presented in this paper concerns the futuristic tracking of a murder suspect by a security agency whose criminal intelligence comes from ‘crowdsourcing’ (the act of outsourcing a task to a large, undefined group of people through an open call in cyberspace [21]); this is also an example of a science fiction prototype (SFP) or creative fiction prototype (CFP).1 Creative prototypes are an ‘imaginative leap’ based upon facts with the purpose of discovering a new innovative path and possibilities that we would not have imagined if we had not explored them in a fictional setting [2]. Teece [3] suggests there is a dearth of forecasting literature on long range scientific and technological developments. Further he suggests that: ‘to profit from future technology business pioneers need to be able to excel not only at product or design innovation, but also from a clearer understanding of its human and ethical implications.’ McGrath [5] also calls for ‘discoverybased’ forecasting approaches: ‘in which the social and economic aspects of future long range technological innovation can be estimated.’ Johnson [1] suggests that the SF prototyping process creates science fiction based on science fact with two main goals. First, SF prototypes advance the development of science and technology by envisioning the impact of science and technology on people, culture and business systems. A SF prototype gives development teams a way to envision their work in the real business world through fiction. The second goal of SF prototypes is to offer a possible vision for the future that is based on science and reason. Johnson writes: ‘this type of fiction gives us a language to talk about the future. We can ask ourselves what kind of future we want to live in or maybe even more importantly we can explore the many futures we don’t want to live in.’2
* Tel.: +44 (0)113 343 8557. E-mail address: [email protected]. 1 We use the term ‘creative fiction’ interchangeably with ‘science fiction’ (SF) prototyping (first developed by Brian Johnson at Intel) [1]. ‘Creative fiction’ prototypes are specifically designed for the business management context. 2 [1, p. 99]. 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.04.002
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Fig. 1. Science fiction literature constructs underpinning prototype development.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a fictional prototype based on the science of ‘crowdsourcing.’ This prototype aims to critically evaluate the social and economic consequences of ‘crowd’ based business models through the synthesis of theory with fictional narratives. Borrowing from Howe’s concept [21], crime-sourcing can be defined as the act of taking the whole or part of a criminal act and outsourcing it to a crowd of either witting or unwitting individuals. The growth in crimesourcing is shaking up long-standing business models and traditions within the criminal underground and is leading to innovations in crime. Further we investigate a vision of individual ‘free will’ being in conflict, with the will of the virtual masses.3 In the next section, we review the fictional literature presenting strategic visions of the future consumer technological landscape and business model development, before providing a critical evaluation of the prototyping methodology. Section 3 presents the science behind this creative prototype. The vignette ‘crime-sourcing’ is then presented in Section 4. Finally the author explains how this fictional prototype will be developed through field research.
2. Literature review: strategic visions of the future consumer technology landscape While prototyping was initially proposed by Johnson [1], Wu and Callaghan [4] and Egerton et al. [6] solely for long-range product development, forecasters now use this methodology to speculate about future social and economic landscapes.4 McCullagh [8] believes that this partly reflects the change in evolution in the ‘technology race’ (over the last thirty years) from products (mobiles, smart phones, iPads) to socio-economic landscapes (‘smart cities’ and ‘the Internet of things’). Multiple definitions exist of the term smart city. In developing his prototype Internet of ‘Mysterious Things’ (exploring futuristic technological advances (in Berlin) in the fields of sensor technology, personal areas network communication, and ambient assisted health and well-being), McCullagh defines a smart city as a: ‘a developed urban area that creates sustainable economic development and high quality of life by excelling in multiple key areas; economy, mobility, environment, people, living, and government. Excelling in these key areas can be done through strong human and social capital, and/or ICT infrastructure’ ([8], p. 359). Further communication within the personal area network and to/from the Internet, realises the concept of an ‘Internet of Things.’ This links the objects of the real world with the virtual world, thus enabling anytime, anyplace connectivity for anything and not only for anyone ([8], p. 255). Fig. 1 suggests that CFPs are grounded in either ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ science fiction. ‘Hard’ SF writers [17–20] ground their work in the cutting edge of science and technology (albeit with varying degrees of artistic license). For instance, in the Great Heinlein Mystery [9] author Edward M. Wysocki Jr. investigates the claim by the late science fiction author Robert Anson Heinlein (1907–1988) that the content from one of his early fictional stories (written while studying at the US naval academy at Annapolis in 1929) inspired the invention of a naval system used during WW2. ‘Hard’ science fiction tends to be most applicable to product and development prototyping [1,4,6]. While ‘soft’ science fiction relates to prototypes considering future consumer technological landscapes. It also provides the underpinning fictional constructs of crime-sourcing. Soft science fiction, is based on the ‘soft’ sciences, and especially the social sciences (anthropology, sociology, psychology, political science), rather than engineering or the ‘hard’ sciences (for example, physics, astronomy, or chemistry) [16]. Soft
3 Egerton notes that this is the power of making free choices that are unconstrained by external circumstances or by an agency such as fate or the divine will of crowds [6]. 4 The use of speculation in has been shown to play a significant role in the development of science. Moreover, in 2004 Richard Panek wrote a book called ‘The Invisible Century’ where he demonstrated how both Einstein and Freud used speculation as a key step in the scientific process [7].
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science fiction is often more concerned with character, and speculative societies rather than scientific or engineering speculations [10]. For instance, in the 1960s the utopian work by Robert Heinlein Strangers in a Strange Land5 not only influenced new technologies but whole new realities [11]. Wysocki [9] writes: ‘Even the idea of creating ‘future histories’ and laying out the political, technological, and historical development of peoples and worlds (i.e. ‘world building’) can be traced to the influence of Heinlein novels.’6 The 1980s brought about the replacement of the utopian orthodoxy by a message of ‘anti-utopian’ deprivation. This is best epitomised in William Gibson’s Neuromancer [15] and the dystopian ‘sprawl’ of Chiba City: ‘Synonymous with implants, nerve-splicing, and micro-bionics, Chiba City was a magnet for the Sprawl’s techno-criminal subcultures. In Chiba, he’d watched his New Yen vanish in a two-month round of examinations. Case ends up living in the cheapest coffin down by the wharf, where arc lights shine perpetual glare. He can’t jack into the Net, he’s hustled himself down to the lowest level, and Night City has brought out the worst in him fast. In the first month, he’d killed two men and a woman over sums that a year before would have seemed ludicrous.’7 J.G. Ballard in his novels of the savage gated communities of Cocaine Nights [13] and to Kingdom Come [14] suggests a future consumer landscape that will be a type of urban non-place (that has come to be associated with the anthropologist Marc Auge´ [30]). Ballard’s mapping of micro-national space, he describe as predicated on a vocabulary of secession, and filled with depictions of colonies, anomalous enclaves, virtual city-states, zones of transition. Micro-nations are sometimes called model nations, since they mimic the structure of independent nations and states, but are not recognised as such by established states [13]: ‘The political (or, rather, anti-political) potential of these spaces is interesting, since their structure and interaction with the outside world strongly parallels the successes and failures of the real-world phenomenon of micro-nations. The term micro- nation refers to an attempt, usually by small groups of individuals, to found small, often ephemeral nations, often without land, but sometimes claiming the types of non-space.’8 3. Critical evaluation of the CFP methodology The development of a prototype fundamentally depends on the ability of developer to speculate and formulate imaginative visions of how they feel future technology will influence their everyday life. However CFP’s are the subject of much controversy. On the one hand there are those who see these prototypes as a promising ‘futures’ innovation improving strategic decision making and business forecasting; while on the other hand, there are sceptics who see them at best a pleasant intellectual exercise, lacking substantive practical management value [3]. The scepticism and criticism we feel stems from a misunderstanding and non-acquaintance with the activities and uses of CFP activity and objectives. According to Egerton et al. [6] fictional prototypes are not simply story-telling but they use stories as a scenario and a vehicle for inspiration and creative business development. The outstanding distinction between story-led scenario planning and CFPs is a distinction on which there seems to be general agreement. Scenario-based story telling is usually associated with a relatively short time span of up to five to ten years, while prototypes focus solely on the long-term time frames, typically ranging from ten to fifty years and sometimes even longer. Intentions and purposes are frequently ascribed to CFPs which do not reflect the objectives of those who are engaged in them. Thus, for example, the latter are viewed as ‘modern prophets’ who pretentiously state with confidence what is going to happen in the future. This is an incorrect view particularly as what characterises students of the future is their great caution with which they consider alternative futures and circumspectly refrain from portraying a single future [5]. The criticisms and reservations about the proposed method of fictional prototyping are reminiscent to some extent of the attitude towards long range technology forecasting. Technology forecasting has apparently received more public legitimisation or has at least has begun to be viewed positively. There is no certainty that creative prototyping will come to be viewed in the same positive way, but as it is a relatively new methodology, it is too early to fully evaluate its potential usefulness to management practice. However, the increasing demand for futures studies by governments, public and private organisations that are prepared to provide financial support may be seen as an indication of the importance with which this method is coming to be regarded. The important question posed by prototypes is not whether there is a need for CFPs or not but rather whether it is preferable to explore the future explicitly and systematically or leave the future to chance. In our view scenario planning for all its importance does not and cannot deal with all aspects of the future. For this reason, prototypes fulfil needs and functions for which planning is not suited. In this sense planning and CFP represented in Fig. 2 should be regarded as complementary rather than a substitute to scientific forecasting techniques. Without prototype studies the tendency may be to rely in a random way on a single view of the future results in limiting the freedom of choice for forecasting. The need and justification for prototyping is in that ‘the future is too important to be left to chance alone.’ Most good prototypes focus on people and it is this focus that gives us a novel and innovative way to explore the future of business.
5 The novel’s success in the 1960s was largely the result of a synchronistic meshing between the ideas and lifestyles depicted in the book and those that were beginning to find prominence in the counter-culture. 6 [9, p. 126]. 7 [15, p. 69]. 8 Simon Sellars and Dan O’Hara (eds.), Extreme Metaphors: Interviews with J.G. Ballard 1967–2008 (London: Fourth Estate, 2012), pp. 367–368 [29].
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Fig. 2. The role of CFP’s in developing the future of business.
3.1. The science behind the crime-sourcing CFP Crowdsourcing began as a legitimate tool to leverage the wisdom of crowds to solve complex business and scientific challenges. The concept of crowdsourcing first gained widespread attention in an article written in 2006, by Jeff Howe for Wired Magazine [21]. The increasing application by firms of crowdsourcing is changing the traditional conception of ‘business as usual’ in a wide variety of industries. In a noted example, Don Tapscott, in his book Wikinomics [22], described how one Canadian gold mining company facing a looming shutdown desperately turned to the general public to help solve a critical business problem. The firm, Goldcorp, was so frustrated with the inability of its own geologists to locate any gold that it did something unheard of at the time: it offered $500,000 to anyone who could find and map the location of the company’s own gold in its own mines. To facilitate the effort, Goldcorp posted their full datasets online. After receiving submissions from more than a thousand people in 50 different countries, Goldcorp achieved the success that had so eluded the firm previously. A member of the public used Goldcorp’s data to make an incredible discovery and to locate more than $3 billion worth of gold using techniques never previously employed in the mining industry. While crowdsourcing has allowed organised crime groups to commit more crimes with less risk, law enforcement officials are now leveraging the power of crowdsourcing to fight crime as well. The New York Police Department (NYPD) has already launched a social media unit to track criminals on Facebook and Twitter. More recently, in 2011 as the streets of the UK burned in the aftermath of violent protests, citizens of London banded together online to identify looters [23]. In one of the most impressive uses of ‘investigation-sourcing’ to date, the Canadian public came together to identify the thousands of protesters who caused millions of dollars of damage as a result of the Vancouver Canucks losing the NHL championship in June 2011. Using a variety of image processing techniques, the firm Gigapixel was able to assemble 216 publicly submitted photographs and assemble them into one seamless high-resolution image. The phenomenal resolution of the resultant picture allowed the faces of tens of thousands of riot participants to be viewed in high resolution [24]. The identification of more than 10,000 participants by name was completed by tagging individuals in Facebook, breaking a record for the number of tags in a given image to date. Many of those identified in the photos have now been successfully arrested and prosecuted by Canadian authorities. The use of crowdsourcing and citizen science is also an issue of national importance with regards to the management of ‘big data.’ Herodotou et al. [25] highlight ‘timely and cost-effective analytics over ‘Big Data’ has emerged as a key ingredient for success in many businesses, scientific and engineering disciplines, and government endeavours. Web search engines and social networks capture and analyse every user action on their sites to improve site design, spam and fraud detection, and advertising opportunities.’9
4. Creative fiction prototype: crime sourcing The primary focus of this prototype is to explore the potential of crowdsourcing to create a business model. When crowds detect the presence of a lucrative ‘pay-off’ (murder suspect) in the ‘border’ transitional zone of San Diego a ‘Heptapod’10 is sent to investigate.
9 10
[25, p. 1]. The heptapods are a fictional human/machine ‘hybrid’ race which first featured in Ted Chiang’s short story Story of Your Life [26].
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4.1. Crete 2030: ambushed Cilia, the angelic face of the village of Vilandredou near to the seaport town of Rethymnon filled his soul. She paralysed the thoughts of Nikos. The sun crested the mountains, sweeping the road with golden light. Dew spotted on the foliage of junipers and pines, while the remnants of the night took refuge in dark crevices between the boulders. Nikos squinted repeatedly in the relentless sun as he sauntered aimlessly along the cracked and chipped eroded old road in empathy with the rugged surrounding terrain and cutting vistas. The dazzling glare of a blade flashed before his eyes. As the knife punctured him he felt his chest implode inwards. Darkness turned into white light. He fell to his knees. Life poured out of him. And the smiling faces of Cilia the final image. 4.2. San Diego 2050 Jacque Levafre had arrived in the smart city zone of San Diego 4 h ago. Levafre worked with the elite investigators of the Tamer Agency. Lefavre climbed slowly up the steep hillside scrambling amongst the rocks, dodging thorn bushes, lizards and the occasional snake, in the towering shadows of the magnificent redwoods. When he finally reached the old ruins of the Presido, screams and shouts of gathered crowd disturbed the tranquillity of the historic Californian setting. They were chanting the name of ‘Carol’ ‘Carol.’ Then she appeared, Carol O’Brien. Jacque felt that he was under hypnotics and the spell of Aphrodite. Carol healed a number of lame and paralysed members of the congregation. The service became a blur. Crime report implementation/closure was planned to be acted tomorrow. The crowd was getting excited as they virtually followed all his moves through the optic portals in the data transmitting sunglasses. It was nearly time for report payoff. 4.3. Chi’ing – one month earlier Jacque felt the vibration of his ‘holo-receiver’ in the inside pocket of his long black leather jacket. The image it projected was that of a lean, tall man. As the image became clearer the rugged but still handsome features of the sun beaten face startled him. What caught his eye was its similarity to his father. But then he noted subtle differences. This man had a more pointed nose and smaller eyes. His father always impeccably dressed. While this man wore a dusty windbreaker and a battered, wide brimmed hat that concealed part of his face. Jacque, its Chi’ing Chi’ing had risen quickly from a junior executive in chameleon operations to being the CEO of the Tamer Agency. However his attention was distracted by the sexy female android that was hot off the production line in Mongolia serving him a double blue. This was a strong and powerful fusion of vodka and blue gin. ‘Something came up from the crowd generated content the other day. This old lady refugee from Vilandredou, filed some holographic imagery data into your father’s file this morning.’ ‘Interestingly the AI established a full profile match with Cilia! Sensors detected her in the gaslight district. It’s time to close the open report on her. We have millions of pounds on this one.’ Jacque recalled that she headed up the Camorra in Southern Italy until she disappeared. The ROI on report closure of Cilia would put the agency right at the top of the financial rankings of the composite security and criminal intelligence index, of the NASDAQ. In the darkness that surrounded him, he could smell the wind carrying the earth’s resurgence and he looked across a sky with stars so huge and bright he felt he was home in Crete. 4.4. Carol/Cilia Carol had agreed to be intercepted by Jacque on her regular 7 am walk through the dense redwood forest next to the savage enclave of Trailer City. It would only be a matter of time he thought until closure. His glacial thoughts were on the bounty. But as he walked with Carol he began to feel his stomach turn and he felt embarrassed. He felt different to all his previous cases. He had fought against hardened killing machines, murderers and enforcers/hit men, the toughest of the tough but he had never failed to reach closure. This was harder. Her beauty had transfixed him. Physically this was the weakest case of the lot, but psychologically the hardest for him to implement. Then he thought of his father and his heart froze a little. With an awe and nervousness unlike any feeling he had ever experienced before, he was struggling to control his affections towards her. They talked of her work in the war project zones around San Diego. She told of her colony for the lepers escaping the outbreak of leprosy in Mexico. ‘Jacque, I want to show you something wonderful.’ They climbed down the fern coated banking, among a rainbow clothing of red bracken, orange perennials, yellow buttercups, lime green nicotianas, bluebells, wild indigo flowers, and sweet violets. There was a crystal clear pool. She dived into the pool fully clothed and swam around with mermaid elegance. ‘It’s so exhilarating, so natural, I feel so alive,’ Carol shouted. Jacque heard her words but was not listening. He removed his sun glasses.
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They stared at each other. ‘I researched your Tamer crowd profile before you came to interview me. You’re human mother is from Crete?’ ‘Yes, she’s from Crete.’ ‘Have you ever visited the island?’ ‘No, never.’ ‘Jacque lets end your report in Vilandredou.’ The express train to Vilandredou left the station at 7.30 am. Jacque noticed a man standing beside the buggy where he had left Carol, as he had gone to buy some tobacco. He was taller than any of the men around him, though he had a battered, widebrimmed hat that concealed his face. There was a tension in the way he waited, wariness in the way he stood, that he did not belong to the crowd of Carol’s excited followers standing around her. Without being certain why the sight of the man alarmed him. Jacque began pushing through the crowd towards the buggy. His shout to Carol was lost in the thundering volleys of train engines firing into life. As Jacque reached Carol at the buggy, the tall man stepped calmly into their paths. Jacque reached for her hand. The tall man raised his head, sunlight exposing his face. The old photograph of his proud father on his wedding day in his house in Crete appeared to him. He did not hear the shots that he knew were fired, but he saw Carol stagger and then fall. Then, Chi’ing raised the gun above his head, brandishing it for an instant in a fierce and defiant gesture before the crowd. Afterward he ran around the buggy to the horse he had ridden to the station. He leaped on the animal’s back and spurred it swiftly away, racing along the path that led towards the mountain. When Jacque reached the buggy, joining the men who crouched about Carol, Jacque knelt on the ground beside her. And in that moment, from her lips came a scream that tore the stillness into shreds, a lament of such anguish that Jacque would hear it again and again until the hour of his own death. 5. Conclusion and implications for future research In this prototype my core proposition is that in the future consumers will actively pro (sume) the design of products through ‘crowd-based’ models. A mixture of innovative designs, services, experiences and products will be created through crowds of consumers being fully involved and participating in their design, creation and future development. This story speculates about future ‘crowdsourcing’ models. That facilitates future innovation, creativity and imagination in criminal problem solving. The crowd acts as an intelligent ‘mind-bridge’ bringing the suspect and investigator together through the criminal intelligence/evidence they have supplied. A future of ‘crowd-sourced’ products and service experiences represents a fundamental design paradigm shift than that which we have at present and the risks and gains from developing such prototypes and technologies will be a fascinating prospect. Howe [21] and Tapscott and Williams [22] stress that consumers have different levels of sophistication in engaging with technology, but this article moves beyond existing studies of technology bridging the producer/consumer interface in examining how pro/consumers may in the future instigate physical moves into the ‘crowdsourcing’ space rather than the current state of play where they are looking to save costs through incorporating information and communication technologies. It also provides further support to work on the human and ethical consequences of future technology by Egerton et al. [6], that individual ‘free will’ whether machine or human will continue to be in conflict with the divine will of the ‘crowd.’ There will remain those rare individuals who will defy commercial pressure and will not surrender their independent thinking to the blind monetary-driven mass compliance [27,28]. In developing our analysis of ‘crowdsourcing,’ instead of running ‘artificial’ studies in laboratories or other controlled environments we plan to conduct field work at two university (city) outreach centres in Manchester and Leeds. The aim will be to work with communities to develop evidence based prototypes that will explore future ‘crowdsourcing’ scenarios. My main goal will be to engage as wide a section of the public as possible in thinking about their future and becoming involved (through prototyping) in the intellectually stimulating fields of science, technology and business. I believe that context aware computing is quickly becoming part of popular reality as technologies evolve and create new user experiences, and in large, change the human experience. References [1] B.D. Johnson, Science Fiction Prototyping: Designing the Future with SF. Synthesis Lecture on Computer Science, Morgan and Claypool Publishers, San Rafael, CA, 2011. [2] B.D. Johnson, Screen Future: the Future of Entertainment, Computers and the Devices We Love, Intel Press, Santa Clara, CA, 2010. [3] D. Teece, Business models, business strategy and innovation, Long Range Planning 43 (2/3) (2010) 172–194. [4] H.-Y. Wu, V. Callaghan, The spiritual machine, in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 155–166. [5] R. McGrath, Business models: a discovery driven approach, Long Range Planning 43 (2/3) (2010) 247–261. [6] S. Egerton, M. Davies, B. Johnson, V. Callaghan, Jimmy: searching for free-will (a competition), in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 128–154. [7] R. Paneck, The Invisible Century, Penguin, New York, 2004. [8] P. McCullagh, Internet of ‘mysterious’ things, in: J.C. Augusto (Ed.), Workshop Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Environments, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2011, pp. 255–266. [9] E. Wysocki, The Great Heinlein Mystery: Science Fiction, Innovation and Naval Technology, Createspace, Seattle, 2012.
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