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Fibre optics
Fibre optics Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) ~895
After several years of delayed promise, fibre optics became, by 1978, an economically viable technology for use in telecommunications and datalinks. Although the technology has been available for ten years, a concerted development programme was required to prove the feasibility of the system. The technology is now firmly established and will increasingly capture a market share from copperwire systems. The industry consists of two primary sectors developing independently: telecommunications and community antenna television (CATV), and datalinks. The former is primarily a replacement market in which fibreoptic systems are competitive for certain trunk applications. The available telecommunications market in the United States comprises the companies that make up 95% of the nonAT&T service, plus an estimated 20% of the total Bell System needs. The Canadian and European telephone systems also represent lucrative markets. The Japanese market is expected to be very large, but exclu sively for Japanese m anu factu rers, as Nippon Telephone & Telegraph will not use non-Japanese equipment. Cable-television companies are moving to use fibre-optic links between studios and head ends. The market in both telecommunications and CATV has been mainly for turnkey systems, which are best supplied by the traditional large equipment manufacturers, with smaller, newer companies competing for business with varying success. Several test installations have given uniformly good results over a year period, and at least two new telephone lines will be cut into regular service in 1979. The change will not be rapid, but it will be competitive for all new trunk lines. Datalin ks are being delivered custom designed for special applications in original equipment manufacturer (OEM) standard design, and
184
in standard designs compatible with BNC coax connector and RS 232 standard bus. The main application is in hostile environments where the links are particularly suitable. Most suppliers are manufacturers of emitters and receivers who then purchase cables from outside vendors. Other companies, such as Valtec, are vertically integrated and others, such as Augat, started from a base of being a connector manufacturer. Components show a downward trend in price for the whole market. Fibre and cable will experience the greatest decline in price and cost, while LED emitters and intensive region (PIN) diode detectors will remain close to their already low prices. Laser diodes and avalanche photo-diode detectors (APD) will experience substantial price reductions from 1978-1983. The world market, excluding Japan, for both segments of the market amounted to ~33M in 1978. The aggregate market will grow by an annual compound rate of 70.8% up to 1983. All segments of the market will not grow at the same pace. The telecommunications industry will adopt fibre optics steadily as plant is replaced or upgraded to an all-digital system, but CATV will move more quickly. One of the largest CATV firms, Cablecom General, has already decided to convert all of its plant. The market will be restricted to trunk lines, although some experimental installations of subscriber drops have been completed and others are planned. Bell Labs has demonstrated a fibre-optic telephone which needs no external power supply; however, this experimental product will not be ready for use for many years. Viewdata and similar two-way cable-television communications will require fibre optics; that market is inhibited by the lack of a subscriber-drop method that would allow multiplexing. One-way multidrops are now possible using star connectors, but fibre optics are too expensive to be used in
customer drops. The datalink market will grow at a higher annual rate than will the telecommunications market. The datalink market will grow at a compound annual rate of 92% from 1978. The rate for the period 1981-1983 (the first year of volume shipments being 1981) will be a more manageable 63%. For fibre and cables in particular, large expansion of output requires relatively little capital outlay, and little time to establish the necessary facilities. The industry will be able to accommodate the very high projected growth rates with little difficulty. For some competitors, expansion will hinge on the allocation of resources, rather than a production barrier. The North American market for telecommunications/CATVwill be the most active, apart from Japan. The European market will grow more slowly, either because the systems are new and the number of trunk lines being replaced is few, or because the systems are antiquated with few improvements being made. US manufacturers are expected to capture the majority of the datalink market due to three primary reasons: the US manufacturers have been the first to introduce the products; North America represents the largest market because of its rapid acceptance of process control and data transmission; the US is a net exporter of computer equipment in which fibre optic links are an integral part. While present technology is generally adequate, improvements are needed for the technology to expand beyond its present applications. A low-loss multidrop capability is required to allow several T-couplers to be easily placed on a line without requiring the use of amplifiers. Until such a coupler is developed, subscriberdrop applications will be limited. Laser diodes are used by the industry as launch devices because of their high power, narrow frequency spread, and because they can be built so that they are constrained to a single mode of emission. They have the disadvantages of a short life and high cost. The first is near solution,, with one company able to guarantee
computer communications
108 h (the number desired by the utilities being 106); the price will drop quickly once volume production begins. Other uses for laser diodes will enable the industry to produce in volume, with benefits from economies of scale. Development work is being done on avalanche photodiode detectors. These offer the advantage of an iqtrinsic amplification which raises its sensitivity by ten times over PIN diodes; however, they are more costly than PIN diodes. For the immediate future, the PIN diode will be used in datalinks and most telecommunications/CATV links. The APD will increase its share of the market, however, as the price is reduced. Several companies are working on devices for use as detectors and emitters, their advantage being, apart from price, their ability to run half duplex without the signal being split at either end. These devices should appear on the market at reasonable prices by 1981. Although few vertically integrated manufacturers exist in the industry, most suppliers concentrate on a single
product. Those companies supplying complete systems usually rely on subcontractors for components, the largest integrated supplier being ITT. Components manufacturers can be grouped into fibre manufacturers, cable manufacturers, and emitter/ detector manufacturers. At present most emitter/detector manufacturers will supply cable. This is often just a customer service. Companies such as Texas Instruments, who specialize in large-volume component manufacturing, will not continue this when the technology is more established. OEM suppliers of datalinks, such as Hewlett-Packard, will continue to offer the complete link in their systems. Suppliers to the telecommunications CATV industry will still supply turnkey systems. Some of the larger semiconductor firms are expected to become active in the emitter/detector market when the volume large-scale production can be justified. The market for graded-index fibres used in telecommunications is dominated by Coming Glass Works and I-FT. Although there is room for
Retail automation in Western Europe Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $1 000
The production of mechanical cash registers has ceased throughout the world. In Europe NCR, Anker, Sweda and Hugin dominated the market until the end of the 1960s. More than 30 manufacturers now offer a wide range of equipment to replace the base of aging mechanical cash registers with electronic technology. Towards the end of the 1970s, retailing all over the world is undergoing changes in both method and structure. Retail stores must adapt to the changing lifestyles of the people they serve. Many of these changes are dictated by economic factors, a great many resulting from practical means of automating procedures for controlling and moving goods from the manufacturer to the consumer.
vol 2 no 4 august 1979
The conversion to electronics in the retail field has created two main product groups: the electronic cash register (ECR), which is a standalone replacement for the electromechanical cash register, and the point-of-sale (POS) terminal, which provides the basic cash-control functions of the standard cash register and captures detailed sales statistics and inventory data for computer processing and analysis. Due to their low price, flexibility and availability, ECRs have already replaced more than 10% of the present European mechanical register market. The main source of these machines has been Japan. The recent technological innovations in adapting microprocessor technology to ECRs and POS terminals
other fibre manufacturers, especially those drawing fibre more suited for datalinks, no serious challenge to the present leaders is likely. There could be rapid change, however, depending on the outcome of a legal case between Corning, IT]-, and the US government over the validity of certain patents held by Coming. If Corning's patent position is upheld, the industry could be realigned to damage the small fibre-drawing companies. Although the Japanese market is closed to nonJapanese manufacturers, the Japanese are attempting to encroach on North American markets, and have established an installation in Florida. Siemens is penetrating the North American CATV market; the North American manufacturers, however, will retain the bulk of the domestic market. Datalinks and components supplied by US manufacturers will dominate the world market due to marketing strengths, rather than to any technological edge.
(Creative Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Blvd, Suite 275j San Jose, California 95129, USA) []
has made it possible to manufacture standard equipment to further improve versatility while keeping prices down. This breakthrough has encouraged development of electronic registers to reduce the distinctions between an ECR and a POS. Both will probably evolve into 'Systems Registers', and will be the most economic unit for the smallest, as well as the largest, user. The European retail industry experienced substantial expansion during the early 1970s. Increased mobility, relatively full employment and an increasing prosperity in most countries all contributed to a departure from traditional retail methods. However, the independent merchants who have been the mainstary of European retailing for decades are disappearing at an increasing rate. The erosion throughout Europe of these primarily family-owned enterprises is expected to continue at a rate of approximately 2%/year.
185
After several years of delayed promise, fibre optics became, by 1978, an economically viable technology for use in telecommunications and datalinks. Although the technology has been available for ten years, a concerted development programme was required to prove the feasibility of the system. The technology is now firmly established and will increasingly capture a market share from copperwire systems. The industry consists of two primary sectors developing independently: telecommunications and community antenna television (CATV), and datalinks. The former is primarily a replacement market in which fibreoptic systems are competitive for certain trunk applications. The available telecommunications market in the United States comprises the companies that make up 95% of the nonAT&T service, plus an estimated 20% of the total Bell System needs. The Canadian and European telephone systems also represent lucrative markets. The Japanese market is expected to be very large, but exclu sively for Japanese m anu factu rers, as Nippon Telephone & Telegraph will not use non-Japanese equipment. Cable-television companies are moving to use fibre-optic links between studios and head ends. The market in both telecommunications and CATV has been mainly for turnkey systems, which are best supplied by the traditional large equipment manufacturers, with smaller, newer companies competing for business with varying success. Several test installations have given uniformly good results over a year period, and at least two new telephone lines will be cut into regular service in 1979. The change will not be rapid, but it will be competitive for all new trunk lines. Datalin ks are being delivered custom designed for special applications in original equipment manufacturer (OEM) standard design, and
184
in standard designs compatible with BNC coax connector and RS 232 standard bus. The main application is in hostile environments where the links are particularly suitable. Most suppliers are manufacturers of emitters and receivers who then purchase cables from outside vendors. Other companies, such as Valtec, are vertically integrated and others, such as Augat, started from a base of being a connector manufacturer. Components show a downward trend in price for the whole market. Fibre and cable will experience the greatest decline in price and cost, while LED emitters and intensive region (PIN) diode detectors will remain close to their already low prices. Laser diodes and avalanche photo-diode detectors (APD) will experience substantial price reductions from 1978-1983. The world market, excluding Japan, for both segments of the market amounted to ~33M in 1978. The aggregate market will grow by an annual compound rate of 70.8% up to 1983. All segments of the market will not grow at the same pace. The telecommunications industry will adopt fibre optics steadily as plant is replaced or upgraded to an all-digital system, but CATV will move more quickly. One of the largest CATV firms, Cablecom General, has already decided to convert all of its plant. The market will be restricted to trunk lines, although some experimental installations of subscriber drops have been completed and others are planned. Bell Labs has demonstrated a fibre-optic telephone which needs no external power supply; however, this experimental product will not be ready for use for many years. Viewdata and similar two-way cable-television communications will require fibre optics; that market is inhibited by the lack of a subscriber-drop method that would allow multiplexing. One-way multidrops are now possible using star connectors, but fibre optics are too expensive to be used in
customer drops. The datalink market will grow at a higher annual rate than will the telecommunications market. The datalink market will grow at a compound annual rate of 92% from 1978. The rate for the period 1981-1983 (the first year of volume shipments being 1981) will be a more manageable 63%. For fibre and cables in particular, large expansion of output requires relatively little capital outlay, and little time to establish the necessary facilities. The industry will be able to accommodate the very high projected growth rates with little difficulty. For some competitors, expansion will hinge on the allocation of resources, rather than a production barrier. The North American market for telecommunications/CATVwill be the most active, apart from Japan. The European market will grow more slowly, either because the systems are new and the number of trunk lines being replaced is few, or because the systems are antiquated with few improvements being made. US manufacturers are expected to capture the majority of the datalink market due to three primary reasons: the US manufacturers have been the first to introduce the products; North America represents the largest market because of its rapid acceptance of process control and data transmission; the US is a net exporter of computer equipment in which fibre optic links are an integral part. While present technology is generally adequate, improvements are needed for the technology to expand beyond its present applications. A low-loss multidrop capability is required to allow several T-couplers to be easily placed on a line without requiring the use of amplifiers. Until such a coupler is developed, subscriberdrop applications will be limited. Laser diodes are used by the industry as launch devices because of their high power, narrow frequency spread, and because they can be built so that they are constrained to a single mode of emission. They have the disadvantages of a short life and high cost. The first is near solution,, with one company able to guarantee
computer communications
108 h (the number desired by the utilities being 106); the price will drop quickly once volume production begins. Other uses for laser diodes will enable the industry to produce in volume, with benefits from economies of scale. Development work is being done on avalanche photodiode detectors. These offer the advantage of an iqtrinsic amplification which raises its sensitivity by ten times over PIN diodes; however, they are more costly than PIN diodes. For the immediate future, the PIN diode will be used in datalinks and most telecommunications/CATV links. The APD will increase its share of the market, however, as the price is reduced. Several companies are working on devices for use as detectors and emitters, their advantage being, apart from price, their ability to run half duplex without the signal being split at either end. These devices should appear on the market at reasonable prices by 1981. Although few vertically integrated manufacturers exist in the industry, most suppliers concentrate on a single
product. Those companies supplying complete systems usually rely on subcontractors for components, the largest integrated supplier being ITT. Components manufacturers can be grouped into fibre manufacturers, cable manufacturers, and emitter/ detector manufacturers. At present most emitter/detector manufacturers will supply cable. This is often just a customer service. Companies such as Texas Instruments, who specialize in large-volume component manufacturing, will not continue this when the technology is more established. OEM suppliers of datalinks, such as Hewlett-Packard, will continue to offer the complete link in their systems. Suppliers to the telecommunications CATV industry will still supply turnkey systems. Some of the larger semiconductor firms are expected to become active in the emitter/detector market when the volume large-scale production can be justified. The market for graded-index fibres used in telecommunications is dominated by Coming Glass Works and I-FT. Although there is room for
Retail automation in Western Europe Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $1 000
The production of mechanical cash registers has ceased throughout the world. In Europe NCR, Anker, Sweda and Hugin dominated the market until the end of the 1960s. More than 30 manufacturers now offer a wide range of equipment to replace the base of aging mechanical cash registers with electronic technology. Towards the end of the 1970s, retailing all over the world is undergoing changes in both method and structure. Retail stores must adapt to the changing lifestyles of the people they serve. Many of these changes are dictated by economic factors, a great many resulting from practical means of automating procedures for controlling and moving goods from the manufacturer to the consumer.
vol 2 no 4 august 1979
The conversion to electronics in the retail field has created two main product groups: the electronic cash register (ECR), which is a standalone replacement for the electromechanical cash register, and the point-of-sale (POS) terminal, which provides the basic cash-control functions of the standard cash register and captures detailed sales statistics and inventory data for computer processing and analysis. Due to their low price, flexibility and availability, ECRs have already replaced more than 10% of the present European mechanical register market. The main source of these machines has been Japan. The recent technological innovations in adapting microprocessor technology to ECRs and POS terminals
other fibre manufacturers, especially those drawing fibre more suited for datalinks, no serious challenge to the present leaders is likely. There could be rapid change, however, depending on the outcome of a legal case between Corning, IT]-, and the US government over the validity of certain patents held by Coming. If Corning's patent position is upheld, the industry could be realigned to damage the small fibre-drawing companies. Although the Japanese market is closed to nonJapanese manufacturers, the Japanese are attempting to encroach on North American markets, and have established an installation in Florida. Siemens is penetrating the North American CATV market; the North American manufacturers, however, will retain the bulk of the domestic market. Datalinks and components supplied by US manufacturers will dominate the world market due to marketing strengths, rather than to any technological edge.
(Creative Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Blvd, Suite 275j San Jose, California 95129, USA) []
has made it possible to manufacture standard equipment to further improve versatility while keeping prices down. This breakthrough has encouraged development of electronic registers to reduce the distinctions between an ECR and a POS. Both will probably evolve into 'Systems Registers', and will be the most economic unit for the smallest, as well as the largest, user. The European retail industry experienced substantial expansion during the early 1970s. Increased mobility, relatively full employment and an increasing prosperity in most countries all contributed to a departure from traditional retail methods. However, the independent merchants who have been the mainstary of European retailing for decades are disappearing at an increasing rate. The erosion throughout Europe of these primarily family-owned enterprises is expected to continue at a rate of approximately 2%/year.
185