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Guide to journal articles
~
Peng'amon
Electoral Studies, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 431-437, 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. Printed in Great Britain 0261-3794/97 $17.00+0.00
Guide to Journal Articles Edited by David Broughton
University of Wales, College of Cardiff, PO Box 908, Cardiff CF1 3YQ, UK Acta Politica, 31(4), 1996. This special issue brings together a number of important English-language articles published over the last 30 years in Acta Politica before the journal is published entirely in English from the 1997 volume. The topics covered in this special issue include party systems in The Netherlands and Britain, electoral behaviour in The Netherlands, party identification, welfare fights, legislatures and finally, pillarization and federalism in terms of a comparison of The Netherlands and Switzerland. John Baker, 'Fair Representation and the Concept of Proportionality', Political Studies, 44(4), September 1996, pp. 733-737. What is the best criterion for deciding whether one electoral system is fairer than another? The commonly used 'proportionality test' does not take account of the multiple political concerns of citizens. Although proportional systems might be better than single member plurality systems in terms of most of the criteria applied to electoral systems, the 'proportionality test' gives us no reason for thinking that one 'proportional' system is fairer than another. Sebastian Balfour, '"Bitter Victory, Sweet Defeat". The March 1996 General Elections and the New Government :in Spain', Government and Opposition~ 31(3), 1996, pp. 275-287. The result of the 1996 Spanish election gave rise to the seeming paradox that the victors had lost and the losers had won when the Popular Party (PP) managed to oust the Socialists (PSOE) from power. It will not be easy for the new government to maintain its parliamentary agreement with the three regional parties or to maintain its own unity amidst factions brought together by the alluring prospect of power. For the Socialists, there is the risk that the 'sweetness' of their narrow defeat will discourage the internal renewal vital to the party's electoral prospects. Andr6 Blais and M Martin Boyer, 'Assessing the Impact of Televised Debates: The Case of the 1988 Canadian Election', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 143-164. A methodology is proposed for assessing the impact of televised debates on electoral outcomes, taking the case of the 1988 Canadian election. Four tests of the impact of the debates are presented. Two tests involving comparisons of watchers and non-watchers of the debates are deemed inappropriate but the other two tests based on panel reaction and time-series analyses show substantial and enduring impacts on the vote. Those impacts were decisive in the contest for second place between the Liberals and the NDP. George A Boyne, 'Assessing Party Effects on Local Policies: A Quarter Century of Progress or Eternal Recurrence?', Political Studies, 44(2), June 1996, pp. 232-252. Fifty studies which test the impact of political parties on local policy variation in the United Kingdom are evaluated. The same conceptual and methodological problems crop up in many of these studies,
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suggesting that little progress has been made towards a better understanding of the impact of parties. Party effects may well have been substantially underestimated. Progress can nevertheless be discerned despite the recurrence of familiar problems. Eric C Browne and Keith E Hamm, 'Legislative Politics and the Paradox of Voting: Electoral Reform in Fourth Republic France', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 165-198. This article explores the properties of paradoxical voting situations in legislatures as illustrated by the decision-making process attending passage of the 1951 Electoral Reform Act in Fourth Republic France. One focus is on the ways in which institutional rules and procedures structured the behaviour of parties and individual members and on the strategic manoeuvring of political leaders. The characteristics of the French case are then related to general propositions found in the theoretical literature on the paradox of voting. David Capitanchik 'The Israeli General Election of 1996--Another Upheaval?', Government and Opposition, 31(4), 1996, pp. 449-466. The Israeli general election of 1996 was determined not so much by the issue of peace as by a change in the electoral law providing for the direct election of the Prime Minister. The result was yet another upheaval in Israeli political life. The problem facing Mr Netanyahu is that, despite his popular mandate and the opinion polls showing a clear majority in favour of the peace process continuing, he has little room for manoeuvre. The future of the peace process in particular seems to depend on his ability to use his mandate to by-pass the fragmented and disputatious executive which he heads. Michael X Delli Carpini, 'Voters, Candidates and Campaigns in the New Information Age. An Overview and Assessment', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 36-56. New information technologies are slowly changing the conduct of campaigns and elections in the United States. This article provides an overview and synthesis of current research on the use of technology by candidates, journalists and voters and it also discusses the implications of these developments for elections and democratic governance in the United States. Raymond V Christensen, 'Strategic Imperatives of Japan's SNTV Electoral System and the Co-Operative Innovations of the Former Opposition Parties', Comparative Political Studies, 29(3), June 1996, pp. 312-334. Single non-transferable vote (SNTV) electoral systems create severe collective action problems for parties. In Japan, the former parties of the non-Communist opposition co-operated in all national elections between 1971 and 1990 in a modified and innovative form to try to deal with the identified problems relating to putting up the optimal number of candidates in each district and dividing the vote equally. The evidence rebuts the assertion that the Japanese opposition acted irrationally or incompetently. Alistair Cole, 'La France pour tous?--The French Presidential Elections of 23 April and 7 May 1995', Government and Opposition, 30(3), 1995, pp. 327-346. The election of Jacques Chirac as French President in May 1995 was surrounded by ambiguity and questions which are derived from the nature of Chirac's campaign itself. The precise functions of the presidency and the balance of political forces in France as a whole will be key issues as will difficult policy choices in the spheres of European and foreign policy, It nevertheless seems likely that it will be in the field of domestic policy that the Chirac administration will ultimately be judged, specifically in the light of the high expectations raised by the 1995 campaign. Robert Cottrell, 'Russia's Parliamentary and Presidential Elections', Government and Opposition, 31(2), 1996, pp. 160-174. The very fact that Russian voters were able to participate in a free and fair election in December 1995 and able to elect a parliament with whose workings they were roughly familiar, marked a further entrench-
Guide to Journal Articles
433
ment of democratic methods and democratic institutions in Russian political life. The parliamentary elections were al,;o important in that they jolted President Yeltsin into a reappraisal of his government and policies, a presidential reaction which is likely to be far more important than anything emerging from the new Duma itself. Gary W Cox and Frances Rosenbluth, 'Factional Competition for the Party Endorsement: The Case of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 259-269. This research note explores the candidate endorsement process in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party during its period of hegemony between 1955 and 1990. The authors explain the problems of factional competition under the SNTV (single non-transferable vote) electoral system. Mainstream factions were at an advantage in getting their non-incumbents endorsed by the party and they were also successful in getting their incumbents protected from the endorsement of new LDP candidates in their districts. Markus M L Crepaz, 'Consensus versus Majoritarian Democracy: Political Institutions and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Performance and Industrial Disputes', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 4-26. The author argues that consensual political institutions have significantly favourable effects on employment, inflation and the number of working days lost, whereas economic growth remains unaffected. An empirical measure of Olson's 'encompassing organizations' is introduced and it is concluded that governments with consensual and accommodative constitutional structures behave more 'responsibly' than their counterparts itn majoritarian and adversarial systems. Sttphane Dion, 'Why is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Some Lessons from Quebec', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 269-283. Why is it so difficult for secessionists to engineer a split in a well-established democracy through a referendum or an electoral victory? What are the conditions for achieving majority support in such a context? Focusing upon the secessionist movement in Quebec, the author concludes that both fear and confidence are needed and they rarely exist together at a sufficient level of intensity, although both remain likely to be ~Lffected by emotions and symbolic politics. Mary Duffy and Geoffrey Evans, 'Building Bridges? The Political Implications of Electoral Integration for Northem Ireland', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 123-142. The authors use data from questions in the Northern Irish Social Attitude Surveys to simulate the party choices available under conditions of electoral integration in Northem Ireland. As a case study of the conflict-resolving potential of electoral reform, Northern Ireland offers faint endorsement. It illustrates that where ethnically differentiated ideologies form the basis of politics, top-down initiatives are less likely to impact significantly on existing cleavages. Peter Esaiasson and Donald Granberg, 'Attitudes Towards a Fallen Leader: Evaluations of Olof Palme Before and After the Assassination', British Journal of Political Science, 26(3), July 1996, pp. 429-439. The shock of the assassination of the Swedish Prime Minister, Olof Palme, in February 1986 sent a shock wave throughout the Western world. The authors go beyond the immediate impact of the assassination in this note however to explore voters' evaluations of Palme three years after his death in the context of the following parliamentary election campaign. Did the assassination cause a lasting restructuring of attitudes towards Palme? Swedish voters are not fickle and once they have made up their minds about a highly visible political actor, they are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes in their attitudes. George Feaver, 'Canadian Political Miscalculation? Quebec's Referendum 95', Government and Opposition, 31(1), 1996, pp. 45-61. Following the referendum in Quebec in 1995, there will be hard choices to make in both the economic and the political field in Canada. The aim of the Canadian federal government has been to restore the
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Guide to Journal Articles
initiative to the federalist side which was badly thrown off balance by the closeness of the referendum result and by the continuing intransigence of the provincial government in Quebec City. The main aim is to buy time for semi-constitutional reform before the pressure to hold another referendum grows once more in Quebec. E A Fieldhouse, C J Pattie and R J Johnston, 'Tactical Voting and Party Constituency Campaigning in the 1992 General Election in England', British Journal of Political Science, 26(3), July 1996, pp. 403-418. This note explores the relationship between local campaigning and tactical voting in the 1992 general election in England using data at both the constituency and individual levels. The propensity of any voter to vote tactically for a party should be positively associated with the amount spent by that party on their campaign. Conversely, campaign spending should reduce the flow of tactical voters to other parties. Given the correct tactical context, the major parties were able to attract a small number of tactical votes by creating a climate of confidence through a vigorous local campaign. Robert W Jackman and Karin Volpert, 'Conditions Favouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 501-521. What were the systemic conditions that influenced the electoi:al success of parties of the extreme right in Western European countries between 1970 and 1990? Electoral and party system factors interact with each other to generate conditions conducive to these parties, with higher rates of unemployment providing a favourable environment. Levels of electoral support for the extreme right are sensitive to influences that can be modified through policy instruments. Philip Jones and John Hudson, 'The Quality of Political Leadership: A Case Study of John Major', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 229-244. Perceptions of leadership quality depend upon personality traits. Using John Major as a case study, the authors show that the most important personality attributes are those which contribute to the belief that a leader can govern in a business-like fashion. A Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to allow for the likelihood that not everyone will perceive a personality change as perceptions of John Major's personality are changed continuously to illustrate the impact on voters. This approach can help to explain why there has been a dispute over the importance of party leadership in British general elections. Dennis Kavanagh, 'British Party Conferences and the Political Rhetoric of the 1990s', Government and Opposition, 31(1), 1996, pp. 27-44. Party conferences in Britain are a hangover from the late nineteenth century but they continue to serve a mix of secular and symbolic functions, although more often than not, conferences do not change the political landscape. From being the best seaside blood sport in the early 1980s, Labour Party conferences now resemble the Conservative conference which Labour once ridiculed. Wm Koetzle and Thomas L Brunell, 'Lip-Reading, Draft-Dodging and Perot-noia. Presidential Campaigns in Editorial Cartoons', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 94-115. A content analysis of 505 editorial cartoons drawn from a sample of American national newspapers during the 1992 presidential campaign is conducted. Cartoons are less interested in policy than candidate personality and the nature of the campaign itself. Negativity is the hallmark of cartoon reporting. There was no measurable advantage given to the incumbent in 1992. The partisan leanings of a newspaper did not appear to affect the nature of candidate evaluations in the paper's editorial cartoons. Robert Lichter and Ted Smith, 'Why Elections Are Bad News. Media and Candidate Discourse in the 1996 Presidential Primaries', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 15-35. This article assesses the changes in the media norms introduced by the American news organizations in their coverage of presidential elections with a view to raising the level of campaign discourse. The network television coverage of the 1996 Republican presidential primaries is analysed, based on content
Guide to Journal Articles
435
analysis of the topics and issues raised, the context of policy issues and the evaluative tone of the campaign debate. The authors conclude that the media coverage contributed to the negativism and the lack of substance for which the campaign was criticized. Mikko Mattil~t, 'Economic Changes and Government Popularity in Scandinavian Countries', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 583-595. This note focuses upon the question of government popularity in the Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark) between 1983 and 1993. Three hypotheses are tested, with the conclusion that economic conditions do indeed affect the popularity of the government. However, it is not enough to rely purely on economic variables since it is also necessary to include possibly significant institutional influences as well. Incumbent governments trying to manipulate the economy to improve their popularity before elections may gain more success if they are coalitions of fewer parties. Ian McAllister, 'The End of a Labor Era in Australian Politics', Government and Opposition, 31(3), 1996, pp. 288-303. The March 1996 federal election was the most important Australian election for a decade. It resulted in the return of the Liberal-National coalition to office after 13 years in opposition, ending a period of Labor-initiate,d change, first under Bob Hawke and then Paul Keating. One consequence of the election is the remowd of the republic from the political agenda since the new Prime Minister is an avowed monarchist. Other issues to be dealt with include the budget deficit, micro-economic reform and the issue of race. Greg McLanghlin and David Miller, 'The Media Politics of the Irish Peace Process', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 116-134. British televi,;ion news coverage of the Irish peace process from its emergence in 1993 up until mid1994 is exarruned in this article. The context of the analysis is the promotional strategies of the protagonists, especially those of the British government. The authors assess the significance of those strategies for understancling the role of the media in relation to both negotiations and decision making. Peter Morriss, 'Qualified Majority Voting and Power Indices: A Further Response to Johnston', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 598-599. This is a further response to an article by Ron Johnston published in the British Journal of Political Science in 1995 concerning the position of the British government in 1994 in terms of the voting rules in the Council of Ministers if the EU was expanded to comprise 16 states. Johnston then gives a further reply and the exchanges are completed by a response by Geoffrey Garrett and Ialn McLean to some of Morriss' points. Richard Nadeau, Richard G Niemi and Timothy Amato, 'Prospective and Comparative or Retrospective and Individual? Party Leaders and Party Support in Britain', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 245-258. The authors ~xgue that voters' assessments of party leaders are comparative and prospective rather than individual and retrospective. Using data from the period 1984-92, a popularity function including a variety of poiiitical and economic components and several dependent variables, the above hypothesis is tested by comparing the 'best prime minister' question in Britain with the 'approval question' about party leaders. The former gives consistently better results than the latter. Rhoda Rabkin, 'Redemocratization, Electoral Engineering and Party Strategies in Chile, 1989-1995', Comparative Political Studies, 29(3), June 1996, pp. 335-356. Can the deliberate manipulation of electoral rules help achieve political moderation and stability? The binomial electoral system in Chile mandates two-member districts for the upper and lower legislative chambers anti the electoral rules occupy a middle ground between majoritarian and PR systems. The
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Guide to Journal Articles
system has encouraged the formation of broad alliances and centripetal political competition but without generating extreme disproportionality. Robert Rohrschneider, 'Cultural Transmission versus Perceptions of the Economy. The Sources of Political Elites' Economic Values in the United Germany', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 78-104. The main economic values of parliamentarians in the united Germany are examined based on interviews with 168 MPs in Berlin. The socialist order in the former DDR successfully imbued East German MPs with socialist economic values independently of their evaluations of contemporary economic conditions. The values of West German MPs reflect the social market system of the West German economy. Basic institutional arrangements have a substantial influence on the ideological pre-dispositions of individuals. Terry J Royed, 'Testing the Mandate Model in Britain and the United States: Evidence from the Reagan and Thatcher Eras', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 45-80. The author tests the hypothesis that parties are better able to carry out mandates in Britain than in the United States by analysing the Thatcher and Reagan years in the respective countries. More Conservative party pledges were fulfilled compared to those of the Republican and Democratic parties. Contrary to previous findings, the institutional differences between the two countries are one factor that matters when it comes to bringing about policy change. David Sanders, 'Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election,', Political Studies, 44(2), June 1996, pp. 203-231. What are the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next general election in the United Kingdom? Different estimation periods and different assumptions about which economic perceptions will be decisive are made. The results of the various models differ but they all converge on the conclusion that the Conservatives are unlikely to recover sufficiently on the basis of purely economic considerations to be able to win the election. James R Scarritt, 'Measuring Political Change: The Quantity and Effectiveness of Electoral and Party Participation in the Zambian One-Party State, 1973-91 ', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 283-297. This research note describes the collection of a systematic events database on changes in electoral and political participation, regime structure and policies affecting the economy, class structure and culture in Zambia between 1973 and 1985. The events are then used to specify the overall direction and extent of change under the one-party system. Changes in the one-party state helped to undermine support for it as demonstrated by substantial drops in turnouts at elections. Alan Schroeder, 'Watching between the Lines. Presidential Debates as Television', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 57-75. The great popularity of televised presidential debates in the United States is linked to characteristics that apply to other high-profile programmes with their emphasis on personalities, conflicts and managed spontaneity. In viewing TV debates, the challenge to the American voters and the press is to 'watch between the lines'. John C Tedesco, Lori Melton McKinnon and Lynda Lee Kaid, 'Advertising Watchdogs. A Content Analysis of Print and Broadcast Ad Watches', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 76-93. The authors conducted a content analysis of 1992 print and broadcast presidential advertisement watches. There is much support for previous research in the field but there are also inconsistencies in terms of neutrality and fairness. The findings also demonsa-ate a lack of coverage of Bill Clinton in broadcast ad watches and an unsystematic coverage of candidates.
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Klaus von Beyme, 'Party Leadership and Change in Party Systems: Towards a Postmodern Party State?', Government and Opposition, 31(2), 1996, pp. 131-159. The most recent concepts applied to the functions and development of political parties such as 'professional parties' and 'cartel parties' are examined in this article. The changes in parties have considerable potential significance for democracy, with a major feature being the degree of responsiveness of the leaders rather than democratic participation by citizens. Larry L Wade and Jin Wan Seo, 'Women, Education and Political Volitions in the South Korean Mass Public', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 27-51. The first systematic account of the political orientations of women in South Korea is provided by analysing data from the 1992 Korean Election Study. Korean women are less interested in politics, more deferential in political discussion and less change oriented than men with respect to some aspects of public policy. These differences are largely explained by education and as higher levels of education are reflected through the female age distribution, more participatory and critical orientations should become apparent. Paul V Warwick, 'Coalition Government Membership in West European Parliamentary Democracies', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 471-499. The results of a quantitative investigation into the factors affecting coalition government membership in West European parliamentary democracies from 1945 to 1990 are reported. Logistic regression analyses are used to determine what influences the odds of becoming the government formateur and the odds of becoming a coalition partner. The role of the formateur is an important one as is the need to build workable coafitions given party system constraints. The results also suggest several criteria that ought to, but often do not, guide formal theory-building. Stephen White and Ian McAllister, 'The CPSU and Its Members: Between Communism and Postcommunism', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 105-122. Analysis of a 1992 survey of current and former members of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) shows that they were characterized by a relatively high degree of activism, they were disproportionately male, more affluent than non-members and better provided with consumer goods. Younger respondents and religious believers were more likely to have left the party than their older colleagues. Although former members will continue to be influential, CPSU membership by itself is likely to play only a limited role in shaping the political direction of post-communist Russia. Christopher Wlezien, 'Dynamics of Representation: The Case of US Spending on Defence', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 81-103. The representation of public preferences in public policy is fundamental to most conceptions of democracy. The integrity of the representational connection rests fundamentally on the expectation that the public actually notices and responds to policy decisions. Such a public would adjust its preferences for policy much fike a thermostat. Empirically, there has been little research to show whether this actually happens and by implication, our understanding of the dynamics of representation is limited. This article addresses the,~e issues by concentrating on public preferences and policy in the single, salient domain of defence spending.
Peng'amon
Electoral Studies, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 431-437, 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. Printed in Great Britain 0261-3794/97 $17.00+0.00
Guide to Journal Articles Edited by David Broughton
University of Wales, College of Cardiff, PO Box 908, Cardiff CF1 3YQ, UK Acta Politica, 31(4), 1996. This special issue brings together a number of important English-language articles published over the last 30 years in Acta Politica before the journal is published entirely in English from the 1997 volume. The topics covered in this special issue include party systems in The Netherlands and Britain, electoral behaviour in The Netherlands, party identification, welfare fights, legislatures and finally, pillarization and federalism in terms of a comparison of The Netherlands and Switzerland. John Baker, 'Fair Representation and the Concept of Proportionality', Political Studies, 44(4), September 1996, pp. 733-737. What is the best criterion for deciding whether one electoral system is fairer than another? The commonly used 'proportionality test' does not take account of the multiple political concerns of citizens. Although proportional systems might be better than single member plurality systems in terms of most of the criteria applied to electoral systems, the 'proportionality test' gives us no reason for thinking that one 'proportional' system is fairer than another. Sebastian Balfour, '"Bitter Victory, Sweet Defeat". The March 1996 General Elections and the New Government :in Spain', Government and Opposition~ 31(3), 1996, pp. 275-287. The result of the 1996 Spanish election gave rise to the seeming paradox that the victors had lost and the losers had won when the Popular Party (PP) managed to oust the Socialists (PSOE) from power. It will not be easy for the new government to maintain its parliamentary agreement with the three regional parties or to maintain its own unity amidst factions brought together by the alluring prospect of power. For the Socialists, there is the risk that the 'sweetness' of their narrow defeat will discourage the internal renewal vital to the party's electoral prospects. Andr6 Blais and M Martin Boyer, 'Assessing the Impact of Televised Debates: The Case of the 1988 Canadian Election', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 143-164. A methodology is proposed for assessing the impact of televised debates on electoral outcomes, taking the case of the 1988 Canadian election. Four tests of the impact of the debates are presented. Two tests involving comparisons of watchers and non-watchers of the debates are deemed inappropriate but the other two tests based on panel reaction and time-series analyses show substantial and enduring impacts on the vote. Those impacts were decisive in the contest for second place between the Liberals and the NDP. George A Boyne, 'Assessing Party Effects on Local Policies: A Quarter Century of Progress or Eternal Recurrence?', Political Studies, 44(2), June 1996, pp. 232-252. Fifty studies which test the impact of political parties on local policy variation in the United Kingdom are evaluated. The same conceptual and methodological problems crop up in many of these studies,
432
Guide to Journal Articles
suggesting that little progress has been made towards a better understanding of the impact of parties. Party effects may well have been substantially underestimated. Progress can nevertheless be discerned despite the recurrence of familiar problems. Eric C Browne and Keith E Hamm, 'Legislative Politics and the Paradox of Voting: Electoral Reform in Fourth Republic France', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 165-198. This article explores the properties of paradoxical voting situations in legislatures as illustrated by the decision-making process attending passage of the 1951 Electoral Reform Act in Fourth Republic France. One focus is on the ways in which institutional rules and procedures structured the behaviour of parties and individual members and on the strategic manoeuvring of political leaders. The characteristics of the French case are then related to general propositions found in the theoretical literature on the paradox of voting. David Capitanchik 'The Israeli General Election of 1996--Another Upheaval?', Government and Opposition, 31(4), 1996, pp. 449-466. The Israeli general election of 1996 was determined not so much by the issue of peace as by a change in the electoral law providing for the direct election of the Prime Minister. The result was yet another upheaval in Israeli political life. The problem facing Mr Netanyahu is that, despite his popular mandate and the opinion polls showing a clear majority in favour of the peace process continuing, he has little room for manoeuvre. The future of the peace process in particular seems to depend on his ability to use his mandate to by-pass the fragmented and disputatious executive which he heads. Michael X Delli Carpini, 'Voters, Candidates and Campaigns in the New Information Age. An Overview and Assessment', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 36-56. New information technologies are slowly changing the conduct of campaigns and elections in the United States. This article provides an overview and synthesis of current research on the use of technology by candidates, journalists and voters and it also discusses the implications of these developments for elections and democratic governance in the United States. Raymond V Christensen, 'Strategic Imperatives of Japan's SNTV Electoral System and the Co-Operative Innovations of the Former Opposition Parties', Comparative Political Studies, 29(3), June 1996, pp. 312-334. Single non-transferable vote (SNTV) electoral systems create severe collective action problems for parties. In Japan, the former parties of the non-Communist opposition co-operated in all national elections between 1971 and 1990 in a modified and innovative form to try to deal with the identified problems relating to putting up the optimal number of candidates in each district and dividing the vote equally. The evidence rebuts the assertion that the Japanese opposition acted irrationally or incompetently. Alistair Cole, 'La France pour tous?--The French Presidential Elections of 23 April and 7 May 1995', Government and Opposition, 30(3), 1995, pp. 327-346. The election of Jacques Chirac as French President in May 1995 was surrounded by ambiguity and questions which are derived from the nature of Chirac's campaign itself. The precise functions of the presidency and the balance of political forces in France as a whole will be key issues as will difficult policy choices in the spheres of European and foreign policy, It nevertheless seems likely that it will be in the field of domestic policy that the Chirac administration will ultimately be judged, specifically in the light of the high expectations raised by the 1995 campaign. Robert Cottrell, 'Russia's Parliamentary and Presidential Elections', Government and Opposition, 31(2), 1996, pp. 160-174. The very fact that Russian voters were able to participate in a free and fair election in December 1995 and able to elect a parliament with whose workings they were roughly familiar, marked a further entrench-
Guide to Journal Articles
433
ment of democratic methods and democratic institutions in Russian political life. The parliamentary elections were al,;o important in that they jolted President Yeltsin into a reappraisal of his government and policies, a presidential reaction which is likely to be far more important than anything emerging from the new Duma itself. Gary W Cox and Frances Rosenbluth, 'Factional Competition for the Party Endorsement: The Case of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 259-269. This research note explores the candidate endorsement process in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party during its period of hegemony between 1955 and 1990. The authors explain the problems of factional competition under the SNTV (single non-transferable vote) electoral system. Mainstream factions were at an advantage in getting their non-incumbents endorsed by the party and they were also successful in getting their incumbents protected from the endorsement of new LDP candidates in their districts. Markus M L Crepaz, 'Consensus versus Majoritarian Democracy: Political Institutions and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Performance and Industrial Disputes', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 4-26. The author argues that consensual political institutions have significantly favourable effects on employment, inflation and the number of working days lost, whereas economic growth remains unaffected. An empirical measure of Olson's 'encompassing organizations' is introduced and it is concluded that governments with consensual and accommodative constitutional structures behave more 'responsibly' than their counterparts itn majoritarian and adversarial systems. Sttphane Dion, 'Why is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Some Lessons from Quebec', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 269-283. Why is it so difficult for secessionists to engineer a split in a well-established democracy through a referendum or an electoral victory? What are the conditions for achieving majority support in such a context? Focusing upon the secessionist movement in Quebec, the author concludes that both fear and confidence are needed and they rarely exist together at a sufficient level of intensity, although both remain likely to be ~Lffected by emotions and symbolic politics. Mary Duffy and Geoffrey Evans, 'Building Bridges? The Political Implications of Electoral Integration for Northem Ireland', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 123-142. The authors use data from questions in the Northern Irish Social Attitude Surveys to simulate the party choices available under conditions of electoral integration in Northem Ireland. As a case study of the conflict-resolving potential of electoral reform, Northern Ireland offers faint endorsement. It illustrates that where ethnically differentiated ideologies form the basis of politics, top-down initiatives are less likely to impact significantly on existing cleavages. Peter Esaiasson and Donald Granberg, 'Attitudes Towards a Fallen Leader: Evaluations of Olof Palme Before and After the Assassination', British Journal of Political Science, 26(3), July 1996, pp. 429-439. The shock of the assassination of the Swedish Prime Minister, Olof Palme, in February 1986 sent a shock wave throughout the Western world. The authors go beyond the immediate impact of the assassination in this note however to explore voters' evaluations of Palme three years after his death in the context of the following parliamentary election campaign. Did the assassination cause a lasting restructuring of attitudes towards Palme? Swedish voters are not fickle and once they have made up their minds about a highly visible political actor, they are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes in their attitudes. George Feaver, 'Canadian Political Miscalculation? Quebec's Referendum 95', Government and Opposition, 31(1), 1996, pp. 45-61. Following the referendum in Quebec in 1995, there will be hard choices to make in both the economic and the political field in Canada. The aim of the Canadian federal government has been to restore the
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initiative to the federalist side which was badly thrown off balance by the closeness of the referendum result and by the continuing intransigence of the provincial government in Quebec City. The main aim is to buy time for semi-constitutional reform before the pressure to hold another referendum grows once more in Quebec. E A Fieldhouse, C J Pattie and R J Johnston, 'Tactical Voting and Party Constituency Campaigning in the 1992 General Election in England', British Journal of Political Science, 26(3), July 1996, pp. 403-418. This note explores the relationship between local campaigning and tactical voting in the 1992 general election in England using data at both the constituency and individual levels. The propensity of any voter to vote tactically for a party should be positively associated with the amount spent by that party on their campaign. Conversely, campaign spending should reduce the flow of tactical voters to other parties. Given the correct tactical context, the major parties were able to attract a small number of tactical votes by creating a climate of confidence through a vigorous local campaign. Robert W Jackman and Karin Volpert, 'Conditions Favouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 501-521. What were the systemic conditions that influenced the electoi:al success of parties of the extreme right in Western European countries between 1970 and 1990? Electoral and party system factors interact with each other to generate conditions conducive to these parties, with higher rates of unemployment providing a favourable environment. Levels of electoral support for the extreme right are sensitive to influences that can be modified through policy instruments. Philip Jones and John Hudson, 'The Quality of Political Leadership: A Case Study of John Major', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 229-244. Perceptions of leadership quality depend upon personality traits. Using John Major as a case study, the authors show that the most important personality attributes are those which contribute to the belief that a leader can govern in a business-like fashion. A Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to allow for the likelihood that not everyone will perceive a personality change as perceptions of John Major's personality are changed continuously to illustrate the impact on voters. This approach can help to explain why there has been a dispute over the importance of party leadership in British general elections. Dennis Kavanagh, 'British Party Conferences and the Political Rhetoric of the 1990s', Government and Opposition, 31(1), 1996, pp. 27-44. Party conferences in Britain are a hangover from the late nineteenth century but they continue to serve a mix of secular and symbolic functions, although more often than not, conferences do not change the political landscape. From being the best seaside blood sport in the early 1980s, Labour Party conferences now resemble the Conservative conference which Labour once ridiculed. Wm Koetzle and Thomas L Brunell, 'Lip-Reading, Draft-Dodging and Perot-noia. Presidential Campaigns in Editorial Cartoons', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 94-115. A content analysis of 505 editorial cartoons drawn from a sample of American national newspapers during the 1992 presidential campaign is conducted. Cartoons are less interested in policy than candidate personality and the nature of the campaign itself. Negativity is the hallmark of cartoon reporting. There was no measurable advantage given to the incumbent in 1992. The partisan leanings of a newspaper did not appear to affect the nature of candidate evaluations in the paper's editorial cartoons. Robert Lichter and Ted Smith, 'Why Elections Are Bad News. Media and Candidate Discourse in the 1996 Presidential Primaries', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 15-35. This article assesses the changes in the media norms introduced by the American news organizations in their coverage of presidential elections with a view to raising the level of campaign discourse. The network television coverage of the 1996 Republican presidential primaries is analysed, based on content
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analysis of the topics and issues raised, the context of policy issues and the evaluative tone of the campaign debate. The authors conclude that the media coverage contributed to the negativism and the lack of substance for which the campaign was criticized. Mikko Mattil~t, 'Economic Changes and Government Popularity in Scandinavian Countries', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 583-595. This note focuses upon the question of government popularity in the Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark) between 1983 and 1993. Three hypotheses are tested, with the conclusion that economic conditions do indeed affect the popularity of the government. However, it is not enough to rely purely on economic variables since it is also necessary to include possibly significant institutional influences as well. Incumbent governments trying to manipulate the economy to improve their popularity before elections may gain more success if they are coalitions of fewer parties. Ian McAllister, 'The End of a Labor Era in Australian Politics', Government and Opposition, 31(3), 1996, pp. 288-303. The March 1996 federal election was the most important Australian election for a decade. It resulted in the return of the Liberal-National coalition to office after 13 years in opposition, ending a period of Labor-initiate,d change, first under Bob Hawke and then Paul Keating. One consequence of the election is the remowd of the republic from the political agenda since the new Prime Minister is an avowed monarchist. Other issues to be dealt with include the budget deficit, micro-economic reform and the issue of race. Greg McLanghlin and David Miller, 'The Media Politics of the Irish Peace Process', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 116-134. British televi,;ion news coverage of the Irish peace process from its emergence in 1993 up until mid1994 is exarruned in this article. The context of the analysis is the promotional strategies of the protagonists, especially those of the British government. The authors assess the significance of those strategies for understancling the role of the media in relation to both negotiations and decision making. Peter Morriss, 'Qualified Majority Voting and Power Indices: A Further Response to Johnston', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 598-599. This is a further response to an article by Ron Johnston published in the British Journal of Political Science in 1995 concerning the position of the British government in 1994 in terms of the voting rules in the Council of Ministers if the EU was expanded to comprise 16 states. Johnston then gives a further reply and the exchanges are completed by a response by Geoffrey Garrett and Ialn McLean to some of Morriss' points. Richard Nadeau, Richard G Niemi and Timothy Amato, 'Prospective and Comparative or Retrospective and Individual? Party Leaders and Party Support in Britain', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 245-258. The authors ~xgue that voters' assessments of party leaders are comparative and prospective rather than individual and retrospective. Using data from the period 1984-92, a popularity function including a variety of poiiitical and economic components and several dependent variables, the above hypothesis is tested by comparing the 'best prime minister' question in Britain with the 'approval question' about party leaders. The former gives consistently better results than the latter. Rhoda Rabkin, 'Redemocratization, Electoral Engineering and Party Strategies in Chile, 1989-1995', Comparative Political Studies, 29(3), June 1996, pp. 335-356. Can the deliberate manipulation of electoral rules help achieve political moderation and stability? The binomial electoral system in Chile mandates two-member districts for the upper and lower legislative chambers anti the electoral rules occupy a middle ground between majoritarian and PR systems. The
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system has encouraged the formation of broad alliances and centripetal political competition but without generating extreme disproportionality. Robert Rohrschneider, 'Cultural Transmission versus Perceptions of the Economy. The Sources of Political Elites' Economic Values in the United Germany', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 78-104. The main economic values of parliamentarians in the united Germany are examined based on interviews with 168 MPs in Berlin. The socialist order in the former DDR successfully imbued East German MPs with socialist economic values independently of their evaluations of contemporary economic conditions. The values of West German MPs reflect the social market system of the West German economy. Basic institutional arrangements have a substantial influence on the ideological pre-dispositions of individuals. Terry J Royed, 'Testing the Mandate Model in Britain and the United States: Evidence from the Reagan and Thatcher Eras', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 45-80. The author tests the hypothesis that parties are better able to carry out mandates in Britain than in the United States by analysing the Thatcher and Reagan years in the respective countries. More Conservative party pledges were fulfilled compared to those of the Republican and Democratic parties. Contrary to previous findings, the institutional differences between the two countries are one factor that matters when it comes to bringing about policy change. David Sanders, 'Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election,', Political Studies, 44(2), June 1996, pp. 203-231. What are the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next general election in the United Kingdom? Different estimation periods and different assumptions about which economic perceptions will be decisive are made. The results of the various models differ but they all converge on the conclusion that the Conservatives are unlikely to recover sufficiently on the basis of purely economic considerations to be able to win the election. James R Scarritt, 'Measuring Political Change: The Quantity and Effectiveness of Electoral and Party Participation in the Zambian One-Party State, 1973-91 ', British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), April 1996, pp. 283-297. This research note describes the collection of a systematic events database on changes in electoral and political participation, regime structure and policies affecting the economy, class structure and culture in Zambia between 1973 and 1985. The events are then used to specify the overall direction and extent of change under the one-party system. Changes in the one-party state helped to undermine support for it as demonstrated by substantial drops in turnouts at elections. Alan Schroeder, 'Watching between the Lines. Presidential Debates as Television', Press/Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 57-75. The great popularity of televised presidential debates in the United States is linked to characteristics that apply to other high-profile programmes with their emphasis on personalities, conflicts and managed spontaneity. In viewing TV debates, the challenge to the American voters and the press is to 'watch between the lines'. John C Tedesco, Lori Melton McKinnon and Lynda Lee Kaid, 'Advertising Watchdogs. A Content Analysis of Print and Broadcast Ad Watches', Press~Politics, 1(4), Fall 1996, pp. 76-93. The authors conducted a content analysis of 1992 print and broadcast presidential advertisement watches. There is much support for previous research in the field but there are also inconsistencies in terms of neutrality and fairness. The findings also demonsa-ate a lack of coverage of Bill Clinton in broadcast ad watches and an unsystematic coverage of candidates.
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Klaus von Beyme, 'Party Leadership and Change in Party Systems: Towards a Postmodern Party State?', Government and Opposition, 31(2), 1996, pp. 131-159. The most recent concepts applied to the functions and development of political parties such as 'professional parties' and 'cartel parties' are examined in this article. The changes in parties have considerable potential significance for democracy, with a major feature being the degree of responsiveness of the leaders rather than democratic participation by citizens. Larry L Wade and Jin Wan Seo, 'Women, Education and Political Volitions in the South Korean Mass Public', Comparative Political Studies, 29(1), February 1996, pp. 27-51. The first systematic account of the political orientations of women in South Korea is provided by analysing data from the 1992 Korean Election Study. Korean women are less interested in politics, more deferential in political discussion and less change oriented than men with respect to some aspects of public policy. These differences are largely explained by education and as higher levels of education are reflected through the female age distribution, more participatory and critical orientations should become apparent. Paul V Warwick, 'Coalition Government Membership in West European Parliamentary Democracies', British Journal of Political Science, 26(4), October 1996, pp. 471-499. The results of a quantitative investigation into the factors affecting coalition government membership in West European parliamentary democracies from 1945 to 1990 are reported. Logistic regression analyses are used to determine what influences the odds of becoming the government formateur and the odds of becoming a coalition partner. The role of the formateur is an important one as is the need to build workable coafitions given party system constraints. The results also suggest several criteria that ought to, but often do not, guide formal theory-building. Stephen White and Ian McAllister, 'The CPSU and Its Members: Between Communism and Postcommunism', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 105-122. Analysis of a 1992 survey of current and former members of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) shows that they were characterized by a relatively high degree of activism, they were disproportionately male, more affluent than non-members and better provided with consumer goods. Younger respondents and religious believers were more likely to have left the party than their older colleagues. Although former members will continue to be influential, CPSU membership by itself is likely to play only a limited role in shaping the political direction of post-communist Russia. Christopher Wlezien, 'Dynamics of Representation: The Case of US Spending on Defence', British Journal of Political Science, 26(1), January 1996, pp. 81-103. The representation of public preferences in public policy is fundamental to most conceptions of democracy. The integrity of the representational connection rests fundamentally on the expectation that the public actually notices and responds to policy decisions. Such a public would adjust its preferences for policy much fike a thermostat. Empirically, there has been little research to show whether this actually happens and by implication, our understanding of the dynamics of representation is limited. This article addresses the,~e issues by concentrating on public preferences and policy in the single, salient domain of defence spending.