Iceberg ahead: On electronic government research and societal aging

Government Information Quarterly 28 (2011) 310–319

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Government Information Quarterly j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s e v i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / g o v i n f

Iceberg ahead: On electronic government research and societal aging Björn Niehaves ⁎ European Research Center for Information Systems, University of Muenster, Leonardo-Campus 3, 48149 Muenster, Germany

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Available online 11 May 2011 Keywords: Electronic government Societal aging Gerontology Senior citizens Multi-method research Literature review Delphi study Research agenda

a b s t r a c t More than ten years ago, Peterson (1999, p. 3) warned that “[g]lobal aging, like a massive iceberg, looms ahead.” Government budgets have already been hit hard by a simultaneous increase in governmental spending and a decline in tax revenue related to a growing share of the elderly to the total population. While almost all industrialized countries can expect an aging population and resulting budget stress, the implications of the graying of society for a “graying of e-Government initiatives and budgets” are not readily apparent and therefore constitutes a subject worthy of investigation. Despite the increasing importance of this issue for e-Government in practice, there remains a clear need to assess our understanding and reflection of the phenomenon. Therefore, we examine (a) whether e-Government research presently provides adequate theory, vocabulary, and methods and (b) the extent to which future e-Government research is potentially able to contribute to tackling the substantial theoretical and practical challenges related to societal aging. Accordingly, we pursue a multi-method approach in terms of sequentially applying a retrospective literature review (12 journals, vol. 2000–2009) and a prospective Delphi study (involving 24 e-Government experts). The results suggest that there is currently a significant gap between actual and potential e-Government research on societal aging. We discuss the implications for future e-Government research and describe potentially fruitful ways of bridging the prevailing gap between theory and practice. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction More than ten years ago, Peterson (1999, p. 3) warned that “[g] lobal aging, like a massive iceberg, looms ahead.” He also predicted severe consequences for government budgets and anticipated that the trend of societal aging would impose wrenching economic and social costs. The “graying” of government budget (Hudson, 1978) chiefly means a significant loss of budget. The OECD foresees that “public-sector deficits could rise again to the volumes of the 1980s. Government debt would soar” (Vanston, 1998, p. 11). While public administration research has intensively discussed the vulnerability of governments to aging-related fiscal stress (Roberts, 2003), governments too have begun to ring the alarm bells (for instance, Economic Policy Committee, 2003; European Commission, 2005; Imagawa, 2005). Government budgets are already being hard hit, not only by an aging-related increase in spending on pensions, health care, long-term care, and unemployment transfers, but tax revenue is also projected to decline significantly, as a result of the relative increase of elderly in society (Roberts, 2003; European Commission, 2006a). While almost all industrialized countries can

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expect population aging (United Nations, 2002) and subsequent budget stress, what are the implications of the graying of society for a “graying of e-Government initiatives and budgets”? Societal aging is a major theme of government IT policies, from the national to the local level. In order to create a comprehensive information society and to prevent, among other things, an agerelated digital divide, the European Union (EU), for instance, has placed the elderly at the focus of attention (Placencia-Porrero, 2007). Today, 14 of the world's 15 “oldest” countries – those with the largest percentage of people aged 65 or more – are to be found in Europe (Population Reference Bureau, 2006). Here, research in 15 EU member states has demonstrated that all national information society strategies under analysis make some reference to the group of elderly people (Martin & Byrne, 2003). The pervasive presence of the theme of societal aging in governmental IT policies mirrors expected developments on the demand side of e-Government. In this respect, Fang (2002) points out that governments often have a comparably high interaction frequency with the elderly and research confirms the existence of a strong and significant future demand for e-Government services among (future) senior citizens (Chen & Dorsey, 2009). While many countries began exploring the implementation of e-Government efforts in the 1990s, academic and practitioner communities are now under pressure to produce research that bridges the gap between e-Government theory and practice. Despite the growing importance of the theme of societal aging

B. Niehaves / Government Information Quarterly 28 (2011) 310–319

for e-Government practice, we need to assess our understanding and reflection of this phenomenon. Specifically, we should examine whether e-Government research currently provides adequate theory, vocabulary, and methods for such research and we should explore the extent to which future e-Government research is potentially able to contribute to tackling the substantial theoretical and practical challenges of an increasingly aging society. Accordingly, this paper pursues the objectives to review achievements of e-Government research regarding the issue of societal aging and to discuss potential measures that the e-Government community could undertake in order to tackle challenges related to the demographic change. Adopting a multi-method approach of sequentially applying a retrospective literature review (12 journals, recent 10 volumes) and a prospective Delphi study (involving 24 e-Government experts), the paper is organized as follows. After reviewing the relevant general literature on demography and societal aging, we set out methods and data of a literature review on this theme specifically in e-Government journal articles. With respect to the central research objective, the Delphi methodology is then presented. Following the discussion of results, we reflect on the implications for theory and seek to open up new vistas for e-Government research. The final sections consider the research limitations, contributions, and draw some conclusions. 2. Background In the following section, we will analyze the challenge of societal aging for e-Government practice and research. Subsequently, we set out our research questions, our literature search strategy and discuss the status quo of e-Government research regarding societal aging. 2.1. The challenge of societal aging Societal aging is a major demographic trend in industrialized societies. Hauser and Duncan (1959, p. 2) define demography as “the study of the size, territorial distribution, and composition of population, changes therein, and the components of such changes, which may be identified as natality, mortality, territorial movement (migration), and social mobility (change of status).” Three major factors constitute the development of demography: (a) fertility, (b) mortality, and (c) migration. Accordingly, demographic transition can be understood as the progressive alteration of these variables. In this context, especially fertility and mortality have undergone significant changes in most industrialized countries over the last decades. On the one hand, fertility has been declining due to, for instance, changed life models or family planning and the potential for birth control and abortion. Morgan and Hagewen (2005, p. 231) state that fertility transitions “[…] are complete in many developed countries and are in progress in much of the rest of the world. Such fertility transition has three stages: (1) a period of relatively high and stable fertility, followed by (2) a period of fertility decline, and then (3) relatively low and stable fertility. On the other hand, regarding mortality, because medical care, sanitation and agricultural production have improved, life expectancy has increased substantially. For instance, between 1995 and 2003, life expectancy at birth in European countries, now being 78 years on average for men and 83 for women, rose by three months each year for men and two months for women on average (EHEMU, 2005). As a consequence of both decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy in many industrialized societies, societal aging (population aging) has established itself as a long-term trend that will continue for generations to come.

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Demographic projections indicate that the group of 65 years and older will continue to constitute a growing share of population. For instance, at present, 14 of the world's 15 “oldest” countries, those with the largest percentage of people age 65 or older, are in Europe, while Japan heads this ranking (Population Reference Bureau, 2006). By 2050, the population share of those aged 65 and over is projected to increase to 29.9% for the EU, and to 39.6% for Japan. Similarly, in the United States (USA) and Canada, the population share of those aged 65 and more, is estimated to increase to 21% and 23.7% respectively. While the demographic trend of societal aging impacts strongest on more developed nations, less and least developed nations also share this general tendency (see Table 1). While these indicators describe the nationwide developments of population aging, the trends are amplified and intensified by domestic migration (Franklin, 2003), namely that especially younger people move from rural to urban areas. Hence, in addition to federal-level challenges, domestic migration leaves regional and local governments with an exacerbated aging process and a generally decreasing population. Societal aging exerts a strong influence on government budgets. In addition to other issues related to population aging, the literature on public administration and government intensively discusses the vulnerability of governments to aging-related fiscal stress (Roberts, 2003; Economic Policy Committee, 2003; European Commission, 2005; Bryant & Sonerson, 2006). Government budgets will inevitably be hit hard, not only by an aging-related increase of expenditure on pensions, health care, long-term care, and unemployment transfers, but also by governmental tax revenue, which is projected to decline significantly (Roberts, 2003; European Commission, 2006a). Against the background of such a widening gap of increasing spending requirements and decreasing tax revenue, the World Bank (1994) proclaims an “old age crisis”. While research on demography, government, and public administration has already produced an imposing body of knowledge on societal aging and its consequences – especially economic and fiscal – a large proportion of this work remains rather observant and appellative. Peterson (1999, p. 3) warned of the looming “global iceberg” while Lee (1999) again fueled the controversy over the rigor and relevance of IS research. Against this background, the question arises as to the analytical perspectives that IS research has since developed, especially e-Government research. Accordingly, this paper poses two major research questions: RQ 1 What fundamental theories, models, and concepts in eGovernment research (published between 2000 and 2009) reflect phenomena related to societal aging? (Retrospection) RQ 2 What potentially useful measures could e-Government research undertake in order to provide fundamental theories, models, and concepts for coping with the challenges related to societal aging? (Prospection)

Table 1 Percentage of population aged 65 years and older. Sources: Regional data: United Nations (2002), Chief Actuary, Canada (2001), EU-25: European Commission (2007) MIC Statistics Bureau (2006), and OASDI Trustees (2003). Nation

1990

2010

2030

2050

Least developed nations Less developed nations More developed nations Canadab European Union (EU-25) Japan United States

3.0a 4.7a 13.5a 12.2a 13.9 12.0 12.5a

3.2 5.8 15.9 13.5 17.6 23.1 12.7

4.2 9.8 22.7 21.8 24.7 31.8 19.4

6.4 14.3 25.9 23.7 29.9 39.6 21.0

a b

Data for 1995. Data for Canada 2010, 2030, 2050 not including Quebec.

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2.2. Reviewing the theme of societal aging in e-Government research In order to answer the retrospective question of the nature of e-Government research on societal aging, we conduct a comprehensive multi-phased literature analysis. Following Cooper (1982, 1998) and Leedy and Ormrod (2001), a rigorous literature study requires defining (a) the domain (the disciplinary field in which the literature search is conducted), (b) the sources (publication outlets from that domain to be included in the search), and (c) the search strategy (search terms applied in order to extract relevant articles). a) Domain: Our goal is to examine e-Government research on societal aging. In this respect, e-Government can be viewed broadly as the design, adoption, and assessment of Information Systems (IS) in government organizations. b) Sources: Therefore, as primary sources for our literature study (Phase 1), we chose two bundles of publication outlets: first, those from specific e-Government journals, second, those from major IS journals. In order to reflect on the past ten years of research, volumes from 2000 to 2009 were included systematically.1 For reasons of resource availability for the literature search process, the selection of journals was based on editorial policy conformity with the goals of our literature analysis, as well as the criteria that they publish currently (resp. 2009) and have a high level of scholarly recognition, specifically taking into account the recommendations of the Association of Information Systems (Saunders, Avison, Davis, Eindor, Galleta, Hirschheim et al., 2006). In our study, the list of (six) e-Government journals contains Government Information Quarterly, the International Journal of Electronic Government Research, Information Polity, Transforming Government: People, Process, Policy, e-Government: An International Journal, and the Electronic Journal of e-Government. The list of (six) IS journals consists of the AIS senior scholar forum's journal list, namely MIS Quarterly, Information Systems Research, Information Systems Journal, the European Journal of Information Systems, the Journal of Management Information Systems, and the Journal of the Association for Information Systems. The systematic search in e-Government and IS journals was complemented by an analysis of secondary sources (Phase 2), including articles referenced by papers identified in Phase 1, those extracted at random and from non-systematic searching (especially in conference proceedings and books), and articles recommended by peers (see Fig. 1 for an overview of the literature search method). c) Search Strategy: As for the articles published in specific e-Government journals, their title, abstract, key words, and, where possible, full text were scanned for three groups of aging-related search terms. The first group revolves around the concept of demography (terms: “demography” and “demograph*”), the second around aging (terms: “aging”, “ageing”, and “age”), and the third group around the elderly person (terms: “elderly”, “older adults”, “seniors”, and “senior citizens”). From the resulting batch of articles, duplicates and papers irrelevant to this study were excluded manually (screening). This applies, for instance, to papers on “information age” firing on the search term “age” or papers discussing “sample demographics” firing on “demograph*”. The papers published in general IS Journal were first checked for the search terms of “*government” as well as “public sector” and then underwent the same analytical procedure mentioned above. As a result, 17 papers related to societal aging were extracted from specific e-Government journals. Most of these papers, four in each, were identified in Government Information Quarterly and e-Government: An 1

Few issues of volume 2009 might have been included for technical reasons.

Fig. 1. Summary of literature search method.

International Journal. However, all specific e-Government journals featured relevant articles, sometimes despite the fairly short range of published volumes, in this case, only five volumes of the International Journal of Electronic Government Research. Regarding the IS journals, 70 articles were identified as e-Government work, but, few fired on our aging-related search terms and none passed the screening (for instance, Hsieh, Rai, & Keil, 2008 discuss sample demographics). For an overview of the literature search results, see Tables 2 and 3. 2.3. Societal aging in e-Government research — status quo An in-depth analysis of the articles provided evidence of the following arguments and key areas of study: a) E-Government for elderly citizens. We identified a range of articles stating that the aging of society is becoming an important factor for e-Government (for instance, Becker, 2004; Weerakkody & Choudrie, 2005; Choudrie, Weerakkody, & Jones, 2005; Pardo & Tayi, 2007; Shelley & Auh, 2007; Bertot & Jaeger, 2008), and so too is the need for government websites, which deal with the specific needs of elderly people. Examples in the literature include the U.S. website www.seniors.gov (Shuler, 2000; Layne & Lee, 2001) or an emergency response solution for the elderly in China (Pardo & Tayi, 2007). b) Age-related impairments. Literature acknowledges that the elderly demographic may have different forms of physical impairments that present different challenges to those of other age groups, and may require various kinds of design issues and assistive technologies (Lines, Patel, & Hone, 2004; Becker, 2004, 2005; Lines, Ikechi, & Hone, 2007; Bertot & Jaeger, 2008). These, and other unique characteristics of this age group, (Thrane, Shelley, Shulman, Beisser, & Larson, 2004; Bavec, 2008) exert a considerable impact on senior citizens' adoption of e-Government services. c) E-Government service adoption. Many of the papers extracted in our literature analysis deal with questions of service adoption. These studies often analyze age along with other socio-demographic factors,suchasgenderorethnicity,andprovideabroadperspective (Dwivedi, Khoumbati, Williams, & Lal, 2007; Dwivedi & Williams, 2008). However, few studies investigate adoption, with age as the main or sole variable of analysis and provide a genuinely in-depth view(Becker,2004;Shelley,Thrane,&Shulman,2006;Lines,Ikechi,

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313

Table 2 Theme in e-Government research journals (2000–2009). Journals and volumes under analysis

Results returned on search terms Demography

Government Information Quarterly (Elsevier)

2000–2009 70

International Journal of Electronic Government Research (IGI Global) Information Polity (IOS Press) Transforming Government: People, Process, Policy (Emerald) eGovernment: An International Journal (Inderscience)

2005–2009

Aging Elderly

Number of Results (complete list) articles after screening

393

28

5

3

0

0

1

2002–2009 2007–2009

3 5

22 5

1 9

2 2

2004–2009

3

3

4

4

Electronic Journal of e-Government (Academic 2003–2009 Conferences Limited)

4

10

3

3

Hone, & Elliman, 2006; Niehaves & Becker, 2008; Chen & Dorsey, 2009; Niehaves, Ortbach, & Becker, 2009; for IT/IS adoption by politiciansofdifferentages:Chappelet,2004;Narro,Mayo,&Miller, 2008). d) E-Inclusion strategy. Most EU member states, for instance, issue information society policies in which common indicators of social concern relate to the elderly (among other groups, such as women or youth). “All the [15 EU] strategies … had some reference to these groups and the need to help.” (Martin & Byrne, 2003, p. 20). Despite age-awareness in government policies, when it comes to evaluating the results of policy efforts in terms on an elderlyinclusive information society or e-society (Choudrie, Brinkman, & Pathania, 2007), critics are quite vocal in their disapproval (Aichholzer, 2004). Few writers view the internet as an opportunity for including the elderly, or, for instance, for improving social (Foley, 2004) or electoral inclusion (Nevo & Kim, 2006; Xie, 2008). Despite identifying 17 exceptional articles in e-Government linked to societal aging, research in this area is rare and many of the papers in question remain rather appellative. While the focus of study often lies elsewhere, aging-related issues are mentioned just briefly (for instance, Pardo & Tayi, 2007; Shelley & Auh, 2007; Bertot & Jaeger, 2008). Most articles appear to be devoid of theory relating to age-related issues and, if any theory could be identified, then this related mainly to adoption and diffusion research (for instance, Choudrie et al., 2007; Dwivedi et al., 2007; Phang, Sutanto,

Shuler (2000), Layne and Leee (2001), Bertot and Jaegerr (2006), Pardo and Tayii (2007), and Bertot and Jaegerr (2008) Shelley et al. (2006) Narro et al. (2008) and Chappelet (2004) Dwivedi et al. (2007) and Sarikas and Weerakkodyy (2007) Becker (2004), Nevo and Kimm (2006), Choudrie et al. (2007), and Dwivedi and Williamss (2008) Martin and Byrnee (2003), Aichholzer (2004), and Foley (2004)

Kankanhalli, Yan, Tan, & Teo, 2006). In summary, there is a comparably rich body of knowledge in the area of e-Government adoption and diffusion, while other streams of research rarely undertake an in-depth discussion of societal-aging issues. This scenario poses the question of what could constitute potentially fruitful avenues for e-Government research in this area. What steps could e-Government research undertake in order to provide a (better) theoretical explanation of and practical guidance for dealing with the enormous demographic challenge of societal aging? 3. Methodology In order to answer the question of e-Government research and societal aging, we undertake a Delphi study (Schmidt, 1997), a widely applied methodology in IS research (Schmidt, Lyytinen, Keil, & Cule, 2001; Kasi, Kei, & Mathiassen, 2008). One of its main advantages is the ability to capture expected future developments (Daniel & White, 2005), such as research challenges and their implementation in a research agenda. The Delphi approach provides a way to structure group communication processes (Turoff & Hiltz, 1996). At its core, the Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting approach, which relies on a panel of experts that complete questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a summary of the experts' discussion from the previous round is provided to them for their evaluation (Rowe & Wright, 1999). In addition to this core activity, the method can readily be adapted or extended in order to conform to a given research goal (Keil, Tiwana, & Bush, 2002). With respect to our study, data collection

Table 3 E-Government and societal aging in top IS research journals (2000–2009). Journal and volumes under analysis

Results returned on search terms

Examples

Results returned on any search Articles after screening terms related to societal aging (results)

Hsieh et al. (2008) and Silva and Hirschheimm (2007) Ho, Ang, and Straub (2003)

1

0

0

0

Mosse and Whitleyy (2009), Pan, Pan, Newman, and Flynn (2006), Moon and Norriss (2005), and Irani, Love, Elliman, Jones, and Themistocleous (2005) Irani and Ellimann (2008) and Heeks and Stanforthh (2007) Otjacques, Hitzelberger, and Feltz (2007) Olphert and Damodarann (2007)

2

0

2

0

2

0

0

0

*Government Public sector MIS Quarterly (MISQ)

2000–2009

4

1

Information Systems Research (ISR) Information Systems Journal (ISJ)

2000–2009

4

0

2000–2009 11

4

European Journal of 2000–2009 18 Information Systems (EJIS) Journal of Management 2000–2009 10 Information Systems (JMIS) Journal of the Association for 2000–2009 1 Information Systems (JAIS)

14 3 0

314

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consolidating the arguments (see Keil et al., 2002; Turoff & Hiltz, 1996). Each of the six action fields contains at least one and up to four specific measures for e-Government research and societal aging (12 measures on balance). 3.2. Round 2

Fig. 2. Summary of Delphi process.

comprises two “traditional” Delphi rounds, of which each was complemented by additional measures, in order to further increase the validity of the results (see Fig. 2 for an overview of the Delphi process).

In the second Delphi round, data were collected via a paper-based questionnaire (digital document) that was administered through email. All consolidated statements (Round 1) were presented to the panelists for their disagreement/agreement and for further comment. This was the final Delphi round, as the pre-defined stop criterion of a minimum agreement of 66% on the statements was achieved (Rowe & Wright, 1999). Here, an agreement ratio was chosen as stop criterion as the goal of this study is the identification of research avenues rather than their prioritization. In addition to this “traditional” Delphi activity, a control panel of another 12 e-Government researchers (convenience sample) was assembled. These panelists were different from those in the initial panel, but all of them are researchers with proven publication capabilities in the field of e-Government. The control panel was presented with the results of Round 1 and asked for their disagreement/agreement and further comment. Here again, a minimum agreement of 66% on all statements was achieved. After the collection of written results from both the initial panel (12 experts) and the control panel (12 experts), a groupcomparative Chi-square test was computed for each statement (using the SPSS 16.0 Software Package) which enables the identification of potential response differences. As the statistical analysis did not reveal significant differences between the responses of the initial and the control panel on any statement, this can be regarded as an indicator of a non-biased selection of panelists. 4. Results This section breaks down the results from round 1 and round 2 of our study. 4.1. Results of round one

3.1. Round 1 In order to provide useful future perspectives for e-Government research and societal aging, in 2008, a convenience sample of 12 panelists was assembled in an academic workshop setting. In line with the traditional Delphi approach and considering the abovementioned scarcity of comprehensive conceptual frameworks, we relied on the panelists to generate the initial matter. After a short introduction to the topic issues (essentially the content of Section 2.1 of this paper), the experts were invited to respond to the question of how the e-Government research community can contribute to coping with the challenges associated with societal aging. The 12 panelists, each a senior researcher in the field, individually answered the question in writing. Additionally, as an extension of the traditional Delphi round, groups were formed so that the experts could discuss their individual results with one another (group size of two, then each of the three pairs was merged to form a group of six, and finally all were combined into the panel group of 12). Such an extension of the methodology yielded the advantage that the result consolidation, the final step of the Delphi round, was achieved to a greater extent by the experts themselves, rather than by an external facilitator (respectively the authors). Consequently, this methodological advancement minimizes potential bias. At the end of this round, the participants had generated a series of arguments that was then consolidated into six action fields. In this respect, an ordering was undertaken, as the presentation of randomized arguments in the next round would not take advantage of the feedback that the group provided in

The first Delphi round yielded results in form of six action fields (AF), of which each contains at least one and as many as four specific measures (M) for e-Government research on societal aging (see Table 4 for an overview). 4.1.1. Action field 1: A new perspective on aging Despite the growing share of the elderly to total population, we continue to have only a basic understanding of the potential research implications. The participants argue that a detailed differentiation of ‘the elderly’ is needed in order to overcome the current, rather anachronistic understanding and to develop services that are better suited to the individual needs of members of this group. Among other measures, defining segments and creating a typology of senior citizens could build the necessary conceptual basis for age-aware e-Government research and could, therefore, be considered a future research field. In order to develop a well-founded understanding, the focus should be on distinguishing and validating factors that influence senior citizens' service usage and extend prior research on e-Government adoption and diffusion. 4.1.2. Action field 2: Managing access IT-oriented e-Government research may be too quick to assume the principle value of IT-based solutions. Too, for instance, the i2010 EU action plan on inclusive e-Government calls for “no citizen to be left behind” (European Commission, 2006b). Since being able to evaluate strategies prior to implementation will become critically important, due to the increasing cost pressure on public administrations as result of the

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315

Table 4 Action fields (AF) and measures (M). Code

Title

Description (consolidated results and example quotes)

New_pers Action field 1: “A new perspective on aging” — Core statement

“We have a relatively anachronistic understanding of aging and senior citizens. Very little seems to be known about the ‘real challenges’ that this group is facing when it comes to e-Government and e-Service usage. Instead, our understanding appears to be rather drawing from commonplaces, individual experiences, and to be more or less influenced by prejudices and pre-assumptions.” M1_1 Develop typology of senior citizens in –We have to understand the elderly better than we do now e-Service usage (measure 1_1) –Differentiate between ‘the elderly’ –Define segments and their features M1_2 Study of factors that cause the age-related –Study factors that influence e-Government usage of the elderly digital divide (measure 1_2) –It is not only about ‘biological age’, but about health, competency etc. –Adoption and diffusion studies M1_3 Study and understand real needs of senior –We have to better understand their needs citizens (measure 1_3) –We have to better understand the ‘real challenges’ of elderly –IT for elderly is not about technology, it is about contents Access Action field 2: “Managing access” — Core “When thinking about contributing to coping with aging-related challenges, we as e-Government researchers statement might too quickly assume the principle value of information technology solutions. Thus, our research on ageaware e-Government should incorporate a cost-benefit perspective on alternative servicing channels, both online and offline.” M2_1 Study channel management (measure 2_1) –Appreciate both offline and online channels –Cost-benefit-analyses necessary with regard to different channels Serv_des Action field 3: “Age-aware e-Government “Studying e-Government service design seems to lie in the core of many e-Government researchers' competencies. service design” — Core statement This might include front-office, back-office, or development issues. However, not much of this research has yet been undertaken from the perspective of elderly or for the specific purpose of serving the elderly.” M3_1 Age-aware Human Computer Interaction (HCI) –User interface must be well designed for this user group research (measure 3_1) –Life events for elderly should make it easier to find services –User friendliness and accessibility M3_2 Age-aware service and process engineering –We need to rethink back-offices, not only front-offices (HCI) (measure 3_2) –Simplify processes, the services will be easier to understand –Service innovation (new age-aware e-Government services) M3_3 Research on trustworthy e-Government –Missing trust may be a major reason for elderly to not use e-Services systems (measure 3_3) –Trust in IT is different among elderly from younger age groups –We have to design systems that (elderly) citizens can trust in M3_4 Participatory design research (measure 3_4) –We should involve the elderly when designing services and systems –By involving the elderly, we can better understand their needs Ubiquit Action field 4: “Ubiquitous e-Government for “It appears that some of the (assumed) exclusion of elderly from e-Government and e-Service usage is due to a elderly” — Core statement lack of (adequate) access. We might want to change our research perspective from one that focuses on how to design services towards one that investigates into innovative ways to reach the elderly, to make e-Government ‘ubiquitous’.” M4_1 Research on technological ubiquity –We should think about how to integrate e-Government and embedded systems (measure 4_1) –Mobile government technologies and use by elderly M4_2 Research on e-Government networks –e-Government service delivery might involve social brokers (intermediaries), such as day care providers or (measure 4_2) medical care –Find ways to mobilize service networks and to involve more actors –Involve friends, family, honorary initiatives Age_work Action field 5: “Aging workforce” — Core “When thinking of e-Government, we might not only incorporate an ‘external’ perspective, that of e.g. citizens statement and businesses, but also an ‘internal’ view on governments. Thus, the aging of society might have the implication of an aging workforce in governments as well. This topic should be in our attention.” M5_1 Study aging workforce-related challenges for –What to do, if knowledgeable senior workers retire? governments (measure 5_1) –Knowledge management systems –Innovative work forms, e.g. involving retired employees from out of their home –How to better motivate elderly employees to use IT? Research Action field 6: “Changing the way we “When thinking about how e-Government research could contribute to coping with the challenges of an aging research” — Core statement society, we seem to discover the limits of a single-disciplinary research perspective. The complexity of the topic requires that we think outside of our (theoretical and institutional) box.” M6_1 More inter-disciplinary research (measure 6_1) –For instance, integrate e-health and e-Insurance studies –Compare e-Government and e-commerce with regard to the elderly –How can e-Government and other fields learn from each other on aging?

demographic change, future research should incorporate the development of a cost-benefit perspective on alternative servicing channels, both online and offline.

4.1.3. Action field 3: Age-aware e-Government service design Studying e-Government service design seems to be at the core of many e-Government researchers' competencies. However, little of this research has so far been undertaken with regard to elderly or for the specific purpose of serving this group. Future research in this direction might focus on age-aware Human Computer Interaction (HCI) research in e-Government, age-aware service and process engineering, trustworthy e-Government systems from the perspective of elderly, or participatory design research in e-Government, involving elderly citizens.

4.1.4. Action field 4: Ubiquitous e-Government for elderly Research on e-Government might take into account potential technological developments in ubiquitous computing. Not only could these developments help to overcome the ‘last mile’ problem of e-Inclusion, by access through technological ubiquity, they may also be able to support a network-oriented approach to e-Government service provision (related to channel management, see Action field 2). In this respect, e-Government services might be provided through intermediaries or in consulted environments, such as hospitals or senior residences. Such networked service delivery settings constitute an important field for further study. 4.1.5. Action field 5: Aging workforce in government organizations Aging and e-Government not only have an external, citizenoriented perspective, but aging can also affect the organizational

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Table 5 Results round two and group comparison. Code

New_pers M1_1 M1_2 M1_3 Access M2_1 Serv_des M3_1 M3_2 M3_3 M3_4 Ubiquit M4_1 M4_2 Age_work M5_1 Research M6_1

Group 1 (initial panel)

Group 2 (control panel)

Total

Group differences

# Agree (out of 12)

Percentage

# Agree (out of 12)

Percentage

# Agree (out of 24)

Percentage

Chi2@ 0.95

11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 11 11

91.7 83.3 91.7 83.3 83.3 83.3 91.7 91.7 83.3 83.3 83.3 91.7 83.3 91.7 83.3 75.0 91.7 91.7

12 11 12 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 12 9 8 10 10 9 11 10

100 91.7 100 83.3 91.7 100 100 100 83.3 66.7 100 75.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 75 91.7 83.3

23 21 23 20 21 22 23 23 20 18 22 20 18 21 20 18 22 21

95.8 87.5 95.8 83.3 87.5 91.7 95.8 95.8 83.3 75.0 91.7 83.3 75.0 87.5 83.3 75.0 91.7 87.5

Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not Not

workforce. Future research could be conducted on knowledge preservation and transfer, as well as skill development and the enhancement of prospects for elderly employees. Other theories, such as that of adoption and diffusion, may be applied to an internal aging perspective as well.

4.1.6. Action field 6: Changing the way we research Research on the challenges of societal aging, especially from an e-Government perspective, seems to remain inadequately reflected in the prevailing body of theories, models, and concepts. While e-Government research may be considered as an inherently inter-disciplinary field of study, the question of societal aging does suggest the need for additional competencies. Therefore, continuing and extending inter-disciplinary research seem to be core a challenge for e-Government research and societal aging.

5. Implications and discussion The literature review and the Delphi study reveal that research in e-Government can address challenges related to societal aging in multiple ways. Basic studies (for instance, that of developing an operational understanding and differentiation of “the elderly”) can be considered a necessary precondition for further progress in this field (foundation). Additionally, methodological challenges (meta level) need to be tackled, such as that of a meaningful and sound integration of multi-disciplinary perspectives. E-Government research on societal aging can be viewed from an organization-external perspective, foremost that revolving around elderly citizens and e-Government service users, and organizational-internal view, for instance, concerned with the age and aging of staff or politicians. Here, theories, concepts, and models of IS and e-Government research may bear

4.2. Results round two The consolidated statements (all six action field statements and 12 measures) were presented to the participants for their disagreement/ agreement and for further comment. In addition to the 12 experts of the initial panel, a control panel of an additional 12 experts was assembled and presented with the same results and feedback options. After the collection of written results from both the initial and control panels, a group-comparative Chi-square test was computed for each statement. The comparative statistical analysis does not reveal significant group differences (for an overview of the responses (agreement) of both panels and the group comparison, see Table 5). As can be seen, the pre-defined stop criterion of a minimum agreement of 66% was achieved for all statements (Rowe & Wright, 1999). This applies to both the initial and control panels. With regard to the responses spanning both panels, the range of agreement extended from lowest 75.0% (M3_3 Trustworthy e-Government for Elderly and M5_1 Aging Workforce-Related Challenges) to highest 95.8%. The latter applies to the measures for factors affecting the digital divide (M1_2) and for researching human computer interaction and elderly (M3_1). As our literature review shows (Section 2), both of these areas have gained most of the research attention so far. Notably however, all items were supported comprehensively by the 24 expert participants of the Delphi study.

signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif. signif.

Fig. 3. Towards a research agenda.

B. Niehaves / Government Information Quarterly 28 (2011) 310–319

potential to be applied both to the external as well as to the internal perspective, such as adoption and diffusion, human computer interaction, or participatory design (see Fig. 3). 5.1. E-Government and societal aging, old hat or potential research nexus? E-Government research endeavors to (specifically) investigate into societal aging are yet rarely to be found (see literature review; some examples include Shuler, 2000; Becker, 2004; Shelley et al., 2006; Dwivedi et al., 2007). However, other existing research – addressing either one of the elements of e-Government or societal aging – might offer potentially rich input for further studies: foundational level (e. g., on age definition in e-Service usage Nichols, Rogers, Fisk, & West, 2001; Bailey, 2002; Woods, 2009; Helbig, GilGarcia, & Ferro, 2009), meta level (on research perspectives in e-Government Stahl, 2005; Scholl, 2007; Scholl & Klischewski, 2007; Janssen, van der Duin, Wagenaar, Bicking, Wimmer, Dawes et al., 2007), organization-external perspective (for instance, on adoption and diffusion Dwivedi, Weerakkody, & Williams, 2009; Carter & Bélanger, 2005; on channel management Frey & Holden, 2005; Ebbers, Pitersona, & Noordmana, 2008; on age-aware service design AARP, 2005; Kurniawan & Zaphiris, 2005; on participatory design and elderly Dewsbury, Sommerville, Bagnall, Rouncefield, & Onditi, 2006; Newell, Arnott, Carmichael, & Morgan, 2007; or on trust Parent, Vandebeek, & Gemino, 2005), and organization-internal perspective (on research on elderly employees Dimitriades & Maroudas, 2007; Bowman & Kearns, 2007). One possible interpretation of these insights is that e-Government research might (just) be another sector area to which already known models, concepts, and theories, for instance those in technology acceptance (for instance, Davis, 1986; Ajzen, 1991; Taylor & Todd, 1995; Venkatesh, Morris, Davis, & Davis, 2003), could be applied. In that respect, the field of e-Government would play a rather secondary role and would be an additional application domain. On the other hand, we interpret that the actual populating aging trend and its severe impact on government institutions leave e-Government an area of study that could accelerate progress in the abovementioned research areas. In contrast to private sector institutions, democratic governments are, for reasons of legitimacy, commonly not willing to ignore or to exclude certain population segments, here the elderly, from service usage. In that regard, government IT policies, for example, the information society strategy of the European Commission (2006b), call for “no citizen to be left behind”. One can expect that governments at large will develop a strong need for age-inclusive e-Service solutions, human computer interaction design and other research fields (see again AF 1 to AF 6, Table 4). Therefore, e-Government and the public sector could potentially act as nexus for different strata of research on societal aging: One can expect a strong need in practice and, in the same vein, the public sector to be a vehicle for accelerating progress in agingrelated IS research areas. 5.2. Age-aware e-Government, a direction for e-Inclusion? Conducting e-Government research on societal aging could bear potential for the digital inclusion (Kvasny & Keil, 2006) of other population groups as well. As the panelists phrased it (comments drawn from the Delphi round number two): “Regarding accessibility, what is good for the elderly is good for all of us.”“The back office is not only amenable to age-aware re-engineering, it needs to be streamlined, rationalized, and simplified for everyone.” Here, research on e-Government that takes into account the perspective of elderly could open up for a potential improvement of online public service delivery in general.

317

5.3. Societal aging, why should we care? Too, the question arises of if coming generations of “digital natives” (Palfrey & Grasser, 2008) will bear the same challenges and potential for research. As a panelist puts it (comment drawn from the Delphi round number two: “Will the aging society even be an issue for long? Many people in society are introduced to IT at a young age. At some point, we'll have a society that is just as familiar with the internet as we are with the television or the microwave. Will the aforementioned challenges and barriers still be relevant?” Here, we argue that the present generation of e-Government technologies and services may indeed be easily understood and handled by future generations of senior citizens. However, we understand that there always exists the potential for discrepancies between technological developments on the one side and user competencies, motivations, or access on the other side. As a consequence, researching e-Government and societal aging in the near future, despite eventually relying on contemporary technologies, has the potential to build the foundation of strategies for governments and other organizations to deal with age-related and other forms of design, adoption, and perception of information systems. Summing up, in the last decade, little research has been conducted in e-Government on societal aging, mainly in terms of studies of adoption and diffusion and, to a lesser extent, of human computer interaction. However, the demographic challenges ahead may offer great potential for e-Government and IS research for the next decade and thereafter. 6. Conclusions “Global aging, like a massive iceberg, looms ahead” (Peterson, 1999, p. 3) and, today, government budgets have already been hit hard by a simultaneous increase in governmental spending and a decline in tax revenue related to a growing share of the elderly to the total population. While almost all industrialized countries already experience or can expect significant aging of population and resulting budget stress, what are the implications of the graying of society for a “graying of e-Government initiatives and budgets”? Here, we examine (a) whether e-Government research presently provides adequate theory, vocabulary, and methods and (b) the extent to which future eGovernment research is potentially able to contribute to tackling the substantial theoretical and practical challenges related to societal aging. We pursue a multi-method approach by sequentially applying a retrospective literature review (12 journals, vol. 2000–2009) and a prospective Delphi study (involving 24 e-Government experts on balance). Based on our multi-method study, we are able to offer the following results and contributions. There is currently a significant gap between actual and potential e-Government research on societal aging. The Delphi study revealed six action fields and twelve measures for potential future research on the phenomenon of which, with the exceptions of research on adoption and diffusion or on human computer interaction, most have not yet been studied comprehensively. In this respect, the article provides a framework and elements of a research agenda for e-Government on societal aging and – on the basis of the retrospective literature review – provides an annotated bibliography of prior studies in this field. We lay out the argument that, due to the inherencies of democratic government, e-Government and public sector research could potentially function as research nexus for diverse approaches dealing with aging, digital divide, inclusion, adoption, or interaction design. As any other piece of research, our study comes with certain limitations. While our statistical testing did not reveal any selection

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bias regarding the experts, the Delphi panel might still be extended beyond the number of 24 participants. Too, we consider it a potentially fruitful next step to complement the present study by involving e-Government practitioners, as we have included senior eGovernment researchers exclusively. Such comparison could shed light on differences in research and practice views of this phenomenon and an integrated analysis of these perspectives could contribute to an even more exhaustive picture of the phenomenon. In addition, our literature review hitherto covered ten volumes of twelve journals (six IS journals and six specific e-Government journals) and might be extended further (for instance, by including conference proceedings in the systematic search process). We would expect that such extension of procedure could be prolific in two or three years from now as conferences regularly have shorter publication cycles and might feature relevant articles earlier. Methodology-wise, for instance, we consider the scenario building technique (Janssen et al., 2007) as a fruitful addition, especially for exploring potential alternative pathways of how population aging might impact of governments and e-Government initiatives accordingly. Finally, we have not yet discussed the relationship between aging and disabilities. As individuals age, they may acquire a range of age-related disabilities such as vision and mobility, which can have a substantial impact on their ability to use e-Government services and resources. A further differentiation and future study in this regard are needed.

Acknowledgment This research was supported by the Volkswagen Foundation in terms of a Schumpeter Fellowship. The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful support and comments by Jörg Becker and Kevin Ortbach as well as the participation of 24 E-Government experts in the Delphi study.

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Bjoern is a Visiting Associate Professor at Copenhagen Business School, Schumpeter Fellow of the Volkswagen Foundation, and heads a research group at the European Research Center for Information Systems, Muenster University, Germany. Bjoern received a PhD in Information Systems (2006, summa cum laude) and a PhD in Political Science (2008, summa cum laude) from Muenster University. In 2006 (Best Dissertation Award of Muenster University), 2007 (Best Paper Award at EGOV), 2008 (Best Paper Award at E-SOCIETY), and 2009 (e|Gov Innovation Award) his work has received additional recognition. Bjoern has published in international journals (including Information Systems Journal (ISJ) and Business Process Management Journal (BPMJ)) and presented at international conferences (for instance, International Conferences on Information Systems (ICIS)). Bjoern held visiting positions at Harvard University (Cambridge, MA), London School of Economics, Waseda University (Tokyo), and the Royal Institute of Technology (Stockholm). He serves as Associate Editor of the European Journal of Information Systems (EJIS) and is listed as one of “40 under 40” in Science, Germany's promising young researchers (Capital 12/2009).