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List of contents and author index volume 18, 1986
aCElO
ANALYSIS ANDPREVENTIO List of Contents and Author Index Volume 18, 1986
PERGAMON
PRESS
NEW YORK l OXFORD l TORONTO FRANKFURT l SYDNEY
VI
Accident Analysis & Prevention ._._
an international
journal
_--
_ . _.^.^
.______
Editor-in-Chief FRANK A.HAIGHT The Pennsylvania
Transportation
Institute, Research Building B. The Pennsylvania llniversity Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.
State University,
Associate Editors HANS C. JOKSCH h~id-America
Research Institute,
45 South Main Street, West Hartford. HERBERT
Department
Depanment
of Psychology.
California
of Civil Engineering,
C.S.A.
MOSKOWITZ
State University,
EZRA limversity
CT 06107.
Los Angefes. CA 90032. U.S.A.
HAUER
of Toronto,Toronto. Ontario. Canada hlSS IA8
KARE KUMAR Swedish National Road and Traffic Institute. Llnkiiping,
Recent Publications Editor:
MARY L.
Sweden
CHIPMAN
Editorial Advisory Board ANDREASSEX. Nuna~adin~. Vie.. h.IStdta BERTIL ALD~~A~‘,Gothenburg. Sxedcn KENNETH H. BECK. College Park. MD. U.S.A. T. E. A. BENJAMIN,Paris, France Dnvro M. Boot%t.x~, Cambridge. MA. IJ.S.A. IVAN D. BROWN, Cambridge. U.K. ALBERT BURG, Los Angeles. CA. U.S.A. WILI.IAML. CARLSUN, Northfield. MN, U.S.A. LEONARDEVANS, Warren, MI, U.S.A. BARUCHFISCHHOFF.Eugene, OR. 1J.S.A. JAMES HEDLUND.Washington. DC. U.S.A. WOLFGANGS. HOMBURGEK.Berkeley. CA, U.S.A DONALDF. HUELW, Ann Arbor. MI, U.S.A. PAUL M. HURST. Wellington, New Zealand BRIAN A. JONAH. Ottawa, Canada MARGARETHUBBARDJONES. Gohi, MD. U.S.A. HANS KI.E~E, Lund. Sweden MASAKI Kostii, Tokyo, Japan STEPHENH. LINDEX. Houston. TX. U.S.A. DAVID
G. M. %XCKAy. Bi~ingham. U.K. Jow A. MICH~N. Groningen. The Netherlands CARL NASH, Washington, DC. U.S.A. J-\~~Es O’DA~. Salem, SC. C S.A. R. C. &CK, Sacramenro, CA. U.S.A. NA~I~ANIELH. PULLING, Hopkinton. MA, U.S.A. DONALDW. REII\‘FURT.Chapel Hill, NC, U.S.A. H. LAURENCERoss, Albuquerque, NM, U.S.A. RONALDL. SOMERS. Adelaide. Australia JOFIND. STAT&S.Rochester. NY, U.S.A. WII.I.IAhl E. TARRAKTS,Washmgton. DC. U.S.A. EVEI.YP;VINCILIS. Toronto, Canada JLXIAN WALI.ER, Burimgton. VT. U.S.A. PATRICIAF. WALLEK. Chapel Hill. NC. U.S.A. FELIX H. WALZ, Zurich, Svzitzerland Rrc; A. WARREN, Ottawa, Canada
EARL A. WIENER. Coral Gables. FL, U.S.A. ERIC C. ~VI~~;~_~S~~ORTH, Melbourne. Vie.. Amtraiia
VII
LIST OF CONTENTS
1
Ezra Hauer
On the estimation of the expected number of accidents
Stig Danielssou
13
A comparison of two methods for estimating the effect of a countermeasure in the presence of regression effects
Katherine K, Christoffel, Joseph L. Schafer, Paul P. Jovanis, Barbara Brandt, Barbara White and Robert Tam
25
Childhood pedestrian injury: A pilot study concerning etiology
David Mahafet and Zvi Szternfeld
37
Safety improvements and driver perception
Adrian K. Lund
43
Voluntary seat belt use among U.S. drivers: Geographic, socioeconomic and demographic variation
W, T. White
51
Does periodic vehicle inspection prevent accidents‘?
Bhagwant Persaud
63
Relating the effect of safety measures to expected number of accidents
71
News, Queries Br Answers
I
Computer Application Section
NUMBER 2 SPECIAL ZSSUE: ACCIDENT
MODELLING
T. E. A. Benjamin
75
International Workshop on the Methodology of Modelling Road Accident and Injury Patterns
John P. Bult
79
Data Sources for Accident Modeiling
Harold L. Votey, Jr.
85
Taking Account of System Interactions in M~elling Road Accidents
Heinz Hautzinger
95
Regression Analysis of Aggregate Accident Data: Some Methodological Considerations and Practical Experiences
Sergio R. Jara-Diaz and SergIo M. GonztSlez
103
Flexible Models for Accidents on Chilean Roads
P, P. Scott
109
M~elli~g Time-Series of British Road Accident Data
G. D. Jacobs and CA. Cutting
119
Further Research on Accident Rates in ~veloping
Courses
Volume I x Content\
VIII
S. Lassarre
129
The Introduction of the Variables “Traffic Volume,” “Speed” and “Belt-Wearing” into a Predictive Model of the Severity of Accidents
Ulrike Henning-Hager
135
Urban Development
R. E. Allsop and E. D. Turner
147
Road Casualties
T. P. Hutchinson
1.57
Statistical Modelling of injury Severity, with Special Reference to Driver and Front Seat Passenger in Single-Vehicle Crashes
G. Maycock
169
Accident
175
Recent Publications
and Public Transport
Modelling
NUMBER
and Road Safety
and Economic
Fares in London
Evaluation
3
W. J. Frith and D. S. Harte
183
The safety implications tersections
A. J. Nicholson
193
The randomness
James Nixon, John Pearn, Ian Wilkey and Alison Corcoran
199
Fifteen years of child drowning- -A 1967-1981 analysis of all fatal cases from the Brisbane Drowning Study and an 11 year study of consecutive near-drowning cases
Iain A. McCormick, Frank H. Walkey and Dianne E. Green
205
Comparative expansion
J. Paul Leigh
209
Individual accidents
Leonard Evans
217
Double pair comparison-A new method to determine how occupant characteristics affect fatality risk in traffic crashes
Leonard Evans
229
The effectiveness
John G. Cope, William F. Grossnickle and E. Scott Geller
243
An evaluation promotion
NUMBER
4 SPECIAL
ISSUE:
YOUTH
of some control changes
at urban in-
of accident counts
perceptions
of driver ability-A
and job characteristics
as predictors
of safety belts in preventing
of three corporate
AND
confirmation
TRAFFIC
Brian A. Jonah
253
Youth and Traffic Accident tential Solutions
Brian A. Jonah
255
Accident Drivers
strategies
and
of industrial
fatalities
for safety belt use
ACCIDENT
RISK
Risk: Possible Causes and Po-
Risk and Risk-Taking
Behaviour
Among
Young
Volume 18 Contents
IX
D, R, Mayhew, A, C, Donelson, D. J. Beirness and H. M. Simpson
273
Youth, Alcohol and Relative Risk of Crash Involvement
Peter Finn and Barry W. E. Bragg
289
Perception of the Risk of an Accident by Young and Older Drivers
Michael L. Mat~ws and Andrew R. Moran
299
Age Differences in Male Drivers’ Perception of Accident Risk: The Role of Perceived Driving Ability
H. Oude Egberink, P, E Lourens and H, H. van der Molen
31s
Driving Strategies Among Younger and Older Drivers when Encountering Children
R, E, Mann, E, R, Vi&Iii, G, Leigh, L. Angiin and H. Blefgen
325
School-Based Programmes for the Prevention of Drinking and Driving: Issues and Results
A, James McKniit and Kenard McPherson
339
Evaluation of Peer Inte~en~on Training for High School Alcohol Safety Education
Adrian K. Lund, Allan F. Williams and Paul Zador
349
High School Driver Education: Further Evaluation of the DeKalb County Study
358
Computer Application Section
Frank A. Haight
359
Risk, Especially Risk of Traffic Accident
Adrian K. Lund and Brian O’NeiU
367
Perceived Risks and Driving Behavior
Glean Blomqaist
371
A Utility Maximization Model of Driver Traffic Safety Behavior
Gerald .I. S. Wilde
377
Beyond the Concept of Risk ~orn~s~~: Suggestions for Research and Application Towards the Prevention of Accidents and Lifes~le-ReIa~ Disease
Adib Kanafani
403
The Analysis of Hazards and the Hazards of Analysis: Reflections on Air Traffic Safety Management
Patricia E Wailer
417
The Highway Transportation System as a Commons: Implications For Risk Policy
Patrick S. McCarthy
425
Seat Belt Usage Rates: A Test of Peltzman’s Hypothesis
439
News, Queries Br Answers
I
Computer Application Section
Volume18Contents
X
NUMBER
6
Elisabeth Wells-Parker, Pamela J. Cosby and James W. Landrum
443
A typology for drinking driving offenders: fication and policy implications
R. L. Brown and Harold Holmes
455
The use of a factor-analytic procedure for assessing the validity of an employee safety climate model
Ezra Hauer and Per Girder
47 1
Research into the validity of the traffic conflicts technique
Anna-Lisa Ottoson and Per LGvsund
483
Protective level of safety harnesses combined with some racing car seats in frontal impacts-a laboratory study
H. Laurence Ross
495
The brewing industry views the drunk-driving
505
Recent Publications
I V
Computer Applications
Section
Volume 18 Contents and Author Index
methods for classi-
problem
AUTHOR
Allsop, R. E., 147 Anglin, L., 325 Beimess, D. J., 273 Benjamin, T. E. A., 75 Blefgen, H., 325 Blomauist. G.. 371 Bragg: B. W. E., 289 Brandt, B., 25 Bull, J. P., 79 Christoffel, K. K., 25 Cope, J. G., 243 Corcoran, A., 199 Cutting, C. A., 119 Danielsson, S., 13 Donelson, A. C., 273 Egberink, H. O., 315 Evans, L., 217, 229 Finn, P., 289 Frith, W. J., 183 Geller, E. S., 243 Gonzales, S. M., 103 Green, D. E., 205 Grossnickle, W. F., 243
INDEX
Haight, F. A., 359 Harte, D. S., 183 Hauer, E., I Hautzinger, H., 95 Henning-Hager, U., 135 Hutchinson, T. P., 157 Jacobs, G. D., 119 Jara-Diaz, S. R., 103 Jonah, B. A., 253, 255 Jovanis, P. P., 25 Kanafani,
A., 403
Lassarre. S., 129 Leigh. G., 325 Leigh, J. P., 209 Lourens, P. F., 315 Lund, A. K., 349 Lund, A. K., 367 Lund, A. K., 43 Mahelel, D., 37 Mann, R. E., 325 Mathews, M. L., 299 Maycock, G., 169 Mayhew, D. R., 273 McCarthy, P. S., 425 McCormick, I. A., 205 McKnight, A. J., 339 McPherson, K., 339 Moran, A. R., 299
Nicholson, A. J., 193 Nixon, J.. 199 O’Neill, B., 367 Peam, J., 199 Persaud. B., 63 Schafer, J. L., 25 Scott, P. P., 109 Simpson, H. M., 273 Sztemfeld, Z., 37 Tanz, R., 25 Turner, E. D., 1247 van der Molen, H. H., 315 Vingilis, E. R., 325 Votey Jr., H. L., 85 Walkey, F. H., 205 Waller, P. F., 417 White, B., 25 White, W. T., 5 1 Wilde, G. J. S., 377 Wilkey, I., 199 Williams, A. F., 349 Zador, P., 349
ANALYSIS ANDPREVENTIO List of Contents and Author Index Volume 18, 1986
PERGAMON
PRESS
NEW YORK l OXFORD l TORONTO FRANKFURT l SYDNEY
VI
Accident Analysis & Prevention ._._
an international
journal
_--
_ . _.^.^
.______
Editor-in-Chief FRANK A.HAIGHT The Pennsylvania
Transportation
Institute, Research Building B. The Pennsylvania llniversity Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.
State University,
Associate Editors HANS C. JOKSCH h~id-America
Research Institute,
45 South Main Street, West Hartford. HERBERT
Department
Depanment
of Psychology.
California
of Civil Engineering,
C.S.A.
MOSKOWITZ
State University,
EZRA limversity
CT 06107.
Los Angefes. CA 90032. U.S.A.
HAUER
of Toronto,Toronto. Ontario. Canada hlSS IA8
KARE KUMAR Swedish National Road and Traffic Institute. Llnkiiping,
Recent Publications Editor:
MARY L.
Sweden
CHIPMAN
Editorial Advisory Board ANDREASSEX. Nuna~adin~. Vie.. h.IStdta BERTIL ALD~~A~‘,Gothenburg. Sxedcn KENNETH H. BECK. College Park. MD. U.S.A. T. E. A. BENJAMIN,Paris, France Dnvro M. Boot%t.x~, Cambridge. MA. IJ.S.A. IVAN D. BROWN, Cambridge. U.K. ALBERT BURG, Los Angeles. CA. U.S.A. WILI.IAML. CARLSUN, Northfield. MN, U.S.A. LEONARDEVANS, Warren, MI, U.S.A. BARUCHFISCHHOFF.Eugene, OR. 1J.S.A. JAMES HEDLUND.Washington. DC. U.S.A. WOLFGANGS. HOMBURGEK.Berkeley. CA, U.S.A DONALDF. HUELW, Ann Arbor. MI, U.S.A. PAUL M. HURST. Wellington, New Zealand BRIAN A. JONAH. Ottawa, Canada MARGARETHUBBARDJONES. Gohi, MD. U.S.A. HANS KI.E~E, Lund. Sweden MASAKI Kostii, Tokyo, Japan STEPHENH. LINDEX. Houston. TX. U.S.A. DAVID
G. M. %XCKAy. Bi~ingham. U.K. Jow A. MICH~N. Groningen. The Netherlands CARL NASH, Washington, DC. U.S.A. J-\~~Es O’DA~. Salem, SC. C S.A. R. C. &CK, Sacramenro, CA. U.S.A. NA~I~ANIELH. PULLING, Hopkinton. MA, U.S.A. DONALDW. REII\‘FURT.Chapel Hill, NC, U.S.A. H. LAURENCERoss, Albuquerque, NM, U.S.A. RONALDL. SOMERS. Adelaide. Australia JOFIND. STAT&S.Rochester. NY, U.S.A. WII.I.IAhl E. TARRAKTS,Washmgton. DC. U.S.A. EVEI.YP;VINCILIS. Toronto, Canada JLXIAN WALI.ER, Burimgton. VT. U.S.A. PATRICIAF. WALLEK. Chapel Hill. NC. U.S.A. FELIX H. WALZ, Zurich, Svzitzerland Rrc; A. WARREN, Ottawa, Canada
EARL A. WIENER. Coral Gables. FL, U.S.A. ERIC C. ~VI~~;~_~S~~ORTH, Melbourne. Vie.. Amtraiia
VII
LIST OF CONTENTS
1
Ezra Hauer
On the estimation of the expected number of accidents
Stig Danielssou
13
A comparison of two methods for estimating the effect of a countermeasure in the presence of regression effects
Katherine K, Christoffel, Joseph L. Schafer, Paul P. Jovanis, Barbara Brandt, Barbara White and Robert Tam
25
Childhood pedestrian injury: A pilot study concerning etiology
David Mahafet and Zvi Szternfeld
37
Safety improvements and driver perception
Adrian K. Lund
43
Voluntary seat belt use among U.S. drivers: Geographic, socioeconomic and demographic variation
W, T. White
51
Does periodic vehicle inspection prevent accidents‘?
Bhagwant Persaud
63
Relating the effect of safety measures to expected number of accidents
71
News, Queries Br Answers
I
Computer Application Section
NUMBER 2 SPECIAL ZSSUE: ACCIDENT
MODELLING
T. E. A. Benjamin
75
International Workshop on the Methodology of Modelling Road Accident and Injury Patterns
John P. Bult
79
Data Sources for Accident Modeiling
Harold L. Votey, Jr.
85
Taking Account of System Interactions in M~elling Road Accidents
Heinz Hautzinger
95
Regression Analysis of Aggregate Accident Data: Some Methodological Considerations and Practical Experiences
Sergio R. Jara-Diaz and SergIo M. GonztSlez
103
Flexible Models for Accidents on Chilean Roads
P, P. Scott
109
M~elli~g Time-Series of British Road Accident Data
G. D. Jacobs and CA. Cutting
119
Further Research on Accident Rates in ~veloping
Courses
Volume I x Content\
VIII
S. Lassarre
129
The Introduction of the Variables “Traffic Volume,” “Speed” and “Belt-Wearing” into a Predictive Model of the Severity of Accidents
Ulrike Henning-Hager
135
Urban Development
R. E. Allsop and E. D. Turner
147
Road Casualties
T. P. Hutchinson
1.57
Statistical Modelling of injury Severity, with Special Reference to Driver and Front Seat Passenger in Single-Vehicle Crashes
G. Maycock
169
Accident
175
Recent Publications
and Public Transport
Modelling
NUMBER
and Road Safety
and Economic
Fares in London
Evaluation
3
W. J. Frith and D. S. Harte
183
The safety implications tersections
A. J. Nicholson
193
The randomness
James Nixon, John Pearn, Ian Wilkey and Alison Corcoran
199
Fifteen years of child drowning- -A 1967-1981 analysis of all fatal cases from the Brisbane Drowning Study and an 11 year study of consecutive near-drowning cases
Iain A. McCormick, Frank H. Walkey and Dianne E. Green
205
Comparative expansion
J. Paul Leigh
209
Individual accidents
Leonard Evans
217
Double pair comparison-A new method to determine how occupant characteristics affect fatality risk in traffic crashes
Leonard Evans
229
The effectiveness
John G. Cope, William F. Grossnickle and E. Scott Geller
243
An evaluation promotion
NUMBER
4 SPECIAL
ISSUE:
YOUTH
of some control changes
at urban in-
of accident counts
perceptions
of driver ability-A
and job characteristics
as predictors
of safety belts in preventing
of three corporate
AND
confirmation
TRAFFIC
Brian A. Jonah
253
Youth and Traffic Accident tential Solutions
Brian A. Jonah
255
Accident Drivers
strategies
and
of industrial
fatalities
for safety belt use
ACCIDENT
RISK
Risk: Possible Causes and Po-
Risk and Risk-Taking
Behaviour
Among
Young
Volume 18 Contents
IX
D, R, Mayhew, A, C, Donelson, D. J. Beirness and H. M. Simpson
273
Youth, Alcohol and Relative Risk of Crash Involvement
Peter Finn and Barry W. E. Bragg
289
Perception of the Risk of an Accident by Young and Older Drivers
Michael L. Mat~ws and Andrew R. Moran
299
Age Differences in Male Drivers’ Perception of Accident Risk: The Role of Perceived Driving Ability
H. Oude Egberink, P, E Lourens and H, H. van der Molen
31s
Driving Strategies Among Younger and Older Drivers when Encountering Children
R, E, Mann, E, R, Vi&Iii, G, Leigh, L. Angiin and H. Blefgen
325
School-Based Programmes for the Prevention of Drinking and Driving: Issues and Results
A, James McKniit and Kenard McPherson
339
Evaluation of Peer Inte~en~on Training for High School Alcohol Safety Education
Adrian K. Lund, Allan F. Williams and Paul Zador
349
High School Driver Education: Further Evaluation of the DeKalb County Study
358
Computer Application Section
Frank A. Haight
359
Risk, Especially Risk of Traffic Accident
Adrian K. Lund and Brian O’NeiU
367
Perceived Risks and Driving Behavior
Glean Blomqaist
371
A Utility Maximization Model of Driver Traffic Safety Behavior
Gerald .I. S. Wilde
377
Beyond the Concept of Risk ~orn~s~~: Suggestions for Research and Application Towards the Prevention of Accidents and Lifes~le-ReIa~ Disease
Adib Kanafani
403
The Analysis of Hazards and the Hazards of Analysis: Reflections on Air Traffic Safety Management
Patricia E Wailer
417
The Highway Transportation System as a Commons: Implications For Risk Policy
Patrick S. McCarthy
425
Seat Belt Usage Rates: A Test of Peltzman’s Hypothesis
439
News, Queries Br Answers
I
Computer Application Section
Volume18Contents
X
NUMBER
6
Elisabeth Wells-Parker, Pamela J. Cosby and James W. Landrum
443
A typology for drinking driving offenders: fication and policy implications
R. L. Brown and Harold Holmes
455
The use of a factor-analytic procedure for assessing the validity of an employee safety climate model
Ezra Hauer and Per Girder
47 1
Research into the validity of the traffic conflicts technique
Anna-Lisa Ottoson and Per LGvsund
483
Protective level of safety harnesses combined with some racing car seats in frontal impacts-a laboratory study
H. Laurence Ross
495
The brewing industry views the drunk-driving
505
Recent Publications
I V
Computer Applications
Section
Volume 18 Contents and Author Index
methods for classi-
problem
AUTHOR
Allsop, R. E., 147 Anglin, L., 325 Beimess, D. J., 273 Benjamin, T. E. A., 75 Blefgen, H., 325 Blomauist. G.. 371 Bragg: B. W. E., 289 Brandt, B., 25 Bull, J. P., 79 Christoffel, K. K., 25 Cope, J. G., 243 Corcoran, A., 199 Cutting, C. A., 119 Danielsson, S., 13 Donelson, A. C., 273 Egberink, H. O., 315 Evans, L., 217, 229 Finn, P., 289 Frith, W. J., 183 Geller, E. S., 243 Gonzales, S. M., 103 Green, D. E., 205 Grossnickle, W. F., 243
INDEX
Haight, F. A., 359 Harte, D. S., 183 Hauer, E., I Hautzinger, H., 95 Henning-Hager, U., 135 Hutchinson, T. P., 157 Jacobs, G. D., 119 Jara-Diaz, S. R., 103 Jonah, B. A., 253, 255 Jovanis, P. P., 25 Kanafani,
A., 403
Lassarre. S., 129 Leigh. G., 325 Leigh, J. P., 209 Lourens, P. F., 315 Lund, A. K., 349 Lund, A. K., 367 Lund, A. K., 43 Mahelel, D., 37 Mann, R. E., 325 Mathews, M. L., 299 Maycock, G., 169 Mayhew, D. R., 273 McCarthy, P. S., 425 McCormick, I. A., 205 McKnight, A. J., 339 McPherson, K., 339 Moran, A. R., 299
Nicholson, A. J., 193 Nixon, J.. 199 O’Neill, B., 367 Peam, J., 199 Persaud. B., 63 Schafer, J. L., 25 Scott, P. P., 109 Simpson, H. M., 273 Sztemfeld, Z., 37 Tanz, R., 25 Turner, E. D., 1247 van der Molen, H. H., 315 Vingilis, E. R., 325 Votey Jr., H. L., 85 Walkey, F. H., 205 Waller, P. F., 417 White, B., 25 White, W. T., 5 1 Wilde, G. J. S., 377 Wilkey, I., 199 Williams, A. F., 349 Zador, P., 349