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North American PM held steady in difficult 2000
North American PM held steady in difficult 2000 espite the economic difficulties in the second half of the year, shipments of metal powders in North America totalled 510 409 tonnes (562 633 short tons) in 2000, a new high. The figure represents a 2.1% rise over the 499 796 tonnes shipped in 1999. Both the iron and copperbase powders sectors fared badly, showing only minimal growth. This was offset to some degree by strong growth in a number of the lower tonnage powder sectors, particularly stainless steel, nickel and tungsten. Presenting these figures (Table 1) during his state-of-the-industry address at the pM2TEC 2001 conference in New Orleans, Donald White, executive director of the Metal Powder Industries Federation and APMI International, recognized that the powder metallurgy (PM) industry in North America has been struggling since mid 2000 as a result of the slowdown in the region's economy. However, he remained upbeat about the industry's ability to weather the storm, pointing to improvements in PM technology over the past decade and the everincreasing awareness of PM's benefits among design engineers. "The
D
industry has never been in a better position to weather the fallout from the current economic storm which will pass", he said. The rising usage of PM in nonautomotive sectors is another positive factor; though the hard-hit automotive sector remains the major end-user, other markets for PM such as cell phones and electronic packaging, watches, surgical instruments, munitions, sporting goods, power tools and hardware are showing promising growth.
Powder picture White reported that shipments of iron powder did increase slightly (by nearly 0.5%) in 2000, reaching 404 008 tonnes compared to 402 110 tonnes in the previous year (Figure 1). This contrasts starkly with White's own prediction in May 2000 for growth of 6-8% in 2000, if the economy had remained strong. In fact, demand for iron powder did grow nearly 8% in the first quarter of the year, with good growth continuing through the second quarter. The downward trend started to show in July when the demand for PM parts began to decline. In total, 375 329 tonnes of iron powder
22 932 (E) (0
1o
MPR September 2 0 0 1
were consumed in the manufacture of PM parts and friction materials in North America, up about 0.4% from 373 914 tonnes in 1999. Non-PM use of iron powder grew 1.7%. The grim picture continued through the first quarter of 2001 and beyond, White reported. Total iron powder shipments were down 16.4% in the first three months of the year, with the PM components share down 15.7%. But the ferrous powder business is not all gloom. Shipments of stainless steel powders increased 18.7% to an estimated 7710 tonnes in 2000, White said, compared to 6493 tonnes in 1999 (Figure 2). He attributed this continued strong growth to the rise in demand for PM stainless steel automotive exhaust parts such as flanges and sensor bosses. GM and Ford are already major users of these PM parts, with DaimlerChrysler now sampling parts. According to White, there is still plenty of scope for further growth in stainless steel PM flanges, from the catalytic converter to the engine manifold. "There is also good growth potential in transplant and European cars", he said. In the nonferrous powders sector, the copper and copper alloy business was virtually static for the second year running. White reported that shipments were 22 932 tonnes in 2000, up a fraction on 22 897 tonnes the previous year (Figure 3). The PM share also remained level. Other nonferrous powders fared better on North American markets. In particular, nickel powder shipments showed remarkable growth of some 45% in 2000 to an estimated 13 608 tonnes, following a decline of 5% to 9374 tonnes in
oo26-o657/m/$ - see front matter © 2ooi Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
1999. Demand for tungsten powder rose 26% to 1760 tonnes, while shipments of tungsten carbide grew 16%. Tin powder shipments totalled 1044 tonnes, up 13%, and shipments of aluminium powders reached an estimated 51 228 tonnes, an increase of 5%, though the performance of the PM sector was not reported. White reported that metal powder producers substantially increased their capacity throughout 2000, with an eye to future demands. New powders were introduced targeting the high performance segment of the PM parts market. High hardenability and compressibility are offered by sinter-hardening grades of iron powder, while soft magnetic alloys will open up applications such as relays, solenoids, fuel injectors and parts in motors and generators. Broadening his survey briefly to the international arena, White contrasted the strong growth shown by the metal powder business in both Europe and Japan in 2000 with North America's performance (Figure 4). Citing statistics provided by the European Metal Powder Association (EPMA), White told his audience that European shipments of iron and steel powders, including stainless steel, for PM applications rose 11.4% to 148 406 tonnes, compared to 133 120 tonnes in 1999. Shipments of copper and copper-base powders in Europe increased 14% to 17 765 tonnes, compared to 15 585 tonnes in 1999 when demand fell 2%. Total shipments of other nonferrous powders decreased about 4% in 2000 to 1604 tonnes. According to the data from the Japan Powder Metallurgy Association (JPMA), 2000 was a good year for the country's PM industry. Usage of iron powder in 2000 rose to 191 697 tonnes, up 12.5% compared to 170 376 tonnes in 1999. Exports account for 16% of iron powder shipments. Japan's copper powder shipments were up 9% to 7226 tonnes in 2000. (More detailed accounts of the status of the Asian and
www.metal-powder.net
European PM markets will be published in subsequent issues.) Taking the figures for North America, Japan and Western Europe together, the international ferrous powder market increased by 5.5% in 2000, reaching 744 111 tonnes.
4500oo[ ~ 36°°°° t
,oooo
_
.,
iH
a. 180 000
0
Automotive parts
• PM parts
.:, Welding
• Other uses
With the automotive market continuing to dominate North Figure 1: North American iron powder shipments for PM, welding and other uses (courtesy of MPIF). America's PM industry, the production cutbacks announced by the 'Big Three' early in 2001 are 8ooo r having significant negative 7200 I impact. Most PM companies sell6300 I ~" 5400~ ing in the automotive market ~" 4500 were down by at least 15% during 3600 the first quarter of this year. 2700 Estimates of light vehicle pro~0 1800 9OO duction for the year vary month to 0 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 month, being cut from 16.1 million to 15.9 million earlier in the [ • US/Canada ] .estimate summer before rising again recently to a more optimistic 16.5-16.7 million. Regardless of final output, Figure 2: Shipments of stainless steel powder continue to show the actual PM content per vehicle promising growth in North America (courtesy of MPIF). continues to rise. Citing projections from American Metal Market, about 13.6 kg. GM is also planWhite reported that a typical US ning to use powder-forged (PF) family vehicle contains 4.2% more connecting rods for its new VPM parts in the 2001 model year shaped automotive engines: the than in 2000 - 17 kg (37.5 lb) up Electron V-6s, High-Value V-6s, from 16.3 kg. And the latest pre- Vortec V-8s and new inline four dictions from American Metal and five-cylinder engines. By the Market put the figure for 2002 end of this decade it is anticipated models closer to 18 kg (39 lb). that more than 90% of GM Powertrain applications account engines will use PF con rods. On for most of this increase. the other hand, DaimlerChrysler's The average PM content in the new V-6 engines are to use precitypical US domestic family vehicle sion-forged C70 steel rods, in has jumped about 50% since 1991 preference to PF rods. (10.7 kg) and about 150% during The use of PM planetary gear the past 25 years (7 kg). White carriers in automatic transmiscommented that in the last decade sions is slated to increase substanthe growth rate for PM has exceed- tially in the future, adding 1.4-1.8 ed that of plastic and plastic com- kg of traditional PM parts. posites, aluminium, steel sheet, In White's view, hybrid petroltube, bar and rod, and high and electric vehicles offer "real potenmedium-strength steel, while the tial for new PM applications". use of cast iron and zinc die cast- Ford, GM, DaimlerChrysler, ings has declined substantially. Honda and Toyota are all known Most new engines and transmis- to be investing heavily in this new sions are increasing their PM con- technology. Design engineers are tent. The Daimler-Chrysler 2.7 1 searching for alternative materials engine contains 88 PM parts, and technologies for these vehiwhile GM's new Vortec 4.2L cles; their powertrains could inline 6-cyclinder truck engines potentially contain up to 6 kg of contain 79 PM parts weighing PM parts. "As an industry we must
~
.
_
MPR September 2ool
11
not neglect this important potential market", White warned.
Bright spots Though the automotive market is currently in decline, many markets for metal powders continued to grow in 2000, White reported. Metal injection moulding (MIM) continues as a 'bright spot', with powder consumption in this sector up substantially in 2000. Estimates from MIMA put the size of the North American PIM market in 2000 at US$125 million for metal parts and $120 million for ceramic parts. MIM growth markets include automotive - where applications include a solenoid actuator for shift mechanism interlock, lock plates for a head rest adjustment mechanism, sun roof stop cam, an ignition lock side bar, and intricate air bag parts electronics and medical. According to White, the refractory metals industry experienced a fairly good year in 2000. Tungsten carbide shipments were up, and there was a significant increase in demand for tantalum capacitors.
The use of tungsten powder in small arms ammunition also continues to grow at a promising rate, and tungsten is also being considered as a replacement for lead in radiation and fishing weights. The hot isostatic pressing (HIP) industry is also reporting growth. The densification of PM billets and preforms, PM near-net shapes and HIP clad components are all promising markets. The international market for PM tool steel is also growing and is estimated at about 12 700 tonnes annually. For the PM industry as a whole, White maintained that the outlook for the next five to ten year is still positive. There has been substantial investments in new plants, equipment and R & D from powder manufacturers, equipment builders and PM parts fabricators. The consolidation trend through the 1990s continuing into the present decade has produced larger firms able to compete more effectively in the international marketplace, and with greater access to capital.
Planning for future growth
27 000
~
22 500
~
18 000 13 500
E
9000
4500 g g ggg~
ggggggg
g g
• PM parts ~ Otheruses
Figure 3: Copper and copper alloy powder shipments in North America (courtesy of MPIF).
Total: 744 108
720 00 ^
~ o ¢9
630 O0 540 00 450 00
"E 360 O0 270 00 :E
180 00
m
90 00
• Europe R Japan • North America • reflectsPMgraae powders only includesstainless steels after 1996
Figure 4: International shipments of iron and steel ~owders (courtesy of MPIF; sources: MPIF, EPMAand JPMA).
~2
MPR September 2ool
The MPIF has been involved with three independent studies examining the PM industry: the drawing up of an industry roadmap, funded through the Department of Energy Office of Industrial Technologies; an industry raarketing study commissioned from A.D. Little; and an ebusiness strategy study conducted by PSI Net. White reported that many of the recommendations were in common, suggesting there are certain aspects of the business that need particular attention in order to enhance and grow the PM industry. The main areas are: • Standards development • Enhancing PM's image as a high-tech process
• Establishing benchmarking criteria • Increasing R&D efforts to match those of competitive processes • E-developments, including the establishment of e-communications and portals to facilitate information exchange • Gathering intelligence on competitive processes • Education - for students, PM professionals and end-users. A number of the recommendations are in place, but need increased attention, while some are new suggestions. White said that establishing the issues that need to be addressed to accomplish what is being recommended will be the next big hurdle facing the PM industry, MPIF and its members. For one topic on the 'hit list' PM standards - 2000 was in fact a particularly good year. White reported that three new or revised standards were published by MPIF: the new Standard for Powder Forged Steel Parts; the revised Materials Standards for Metal Injection Molded Parts; and the new, revised Materials
Standards for PM Structural Parts. The MPIE through the Center for Powder Metallurgy Technology, is also cooperating with ISO to develop a new international PM materials standard that will include most of the data from MPIF Standard 35. As White concluded, the fundamentals of PM remain strong despite the current economic problems. "PM is a 21st century technology that provides answers to the relentless quest to reducing manufacturing costs while improving quality and reliability", he said. He remained confident that the economic storm will pass and that PM will then enter a new era of growth. Contact: Metal Powder Industries Federation lo5 College Road East, Princeton, NJ o854o-6692, USA. Tel: +1-6o9-452-77oo. Fax: +1-6o9-987-8523. E-mail: johnson@mpiLorg URL: www.mpif.org •
www.metal-powder.net
D
industry has never been in a better position to weather the fallout from the current economic storm which will pass", he said. The rising usage of PM in nonautomotive sectors is another positive factor; though the hard-hit automotive sector remains the major end-user, other markets for PM such as cell phones and electronic packaging, watches, surgical instruments, munitions, sporting goods, power tools and hardware are showing promising growth.
Powder picture White reported that shipments of iron powder did increase slightly (by nearly 0.5%) in 2000, reaching 404 008 tonnes compared to 402 110 tonnes in the previous year (Figure 1). This contrasts starkly with White's own prediction in May 2000 for growth of 6-8% in 2000, if the economy had remained strong. In fact, demand for iron powder did grow nearly 8% in the first quarter of the year, with good growth continuing through the second quarter. The downward trend started to show in July when the demand for PM parts began to decline. In total, 375 329 tonnes of iron powder
22 932 (E) (0
1o
MPR September 2 0 0 1
were consumed in the manufacture of PM parts and friction materials in North America, up about 0.4% from 373 914 tonnes in 1999. Non-PM use of iron powder grew 1.7%. The grim picture continued through the first quarter of 2001 and beyond, White reported. Total iron powder shipments were down 16.4% in the first three months of the year, with the PM components share down 15.7%. But the ferrous powder business is not all gloom. Shipments of stainless steel powders increased 18.7% to an estimated 7710 tonnes in 2000, White said, compared to 6493 tonnes in 1999 (Figure 2). He attributed this continued strong growth to the rise in demand for PM stainless steel automotive exhaust parts such as flanges and sensor bosses. GM and Ford are already major users of these PM parts, with DaimlerChrysler now sampling parts. According to White, there is still plenty of scope for further growth in stainless steel PM flanges, from the catalytic converter to the engine manifold. "There is also good growth potential in transplant and European cars", he said. In the nonferrous powders sector, the copper and copper alloy business was virtually static for the second year running. White reported that shipments were 22 932 tonnes in 2000, up a fraction on 22 897 tonnes the previous year (Figure 3). The PM share also remained level. Other nonferrous powders fared better on North American markets. In particular, nickel powder shipments showed remarkable growth of some 45% in 2000 to an estimated 13 608 tonnes, following a decline of 5% to 9374 tonnes in
oo26-o657/m/$ - see front matter © 2ooi Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
1999. Demand for tungsten powder rose 26% to 1760 tonnes, while shipments of tungsten carbide grew 16%. Tin powder shipments totalled 1044 tonnes, up 13%, and shipments of aluminium powders reached an estimated 51 228 tonnes, an increase of 5%, though the performance of the PM sector was not reported. White reported that metal powder producers substantially increased their capacity throughout 2000, with an eye to future demands. New powders were introduced targeting the high performance segment of the PM parts market. High hardenability and compressibility are offered by sinter-hardening grades of iron powder, while soft magnetic alloys will open up applications such as relays, solenoids, fuel injectors and parts in motors and generators. Broadening his survey briefly to the international arena, White contrasted the strong growth shown by the metal powder business in both Europe and Japan in 2000 with North America's performance (Figure 4). Citing statistics provided by the European Metal Powder Association (EPMA), White told his audience that European shipments of iron and steel powders, including stainless steel, for PM applications rose 11.4% to 148 406 tonnes, compared to 133 120 tonnes in 1999. Shipments of copper and copper-base powders in Europe increased 14% to 17 765 tonnes, compared to 15 585 tonnes in 1999 when demand fell 2%. Total shipments of other nonferrous powders decreased about 4% in 2000 to 1604 tonnes. According to the data from the Japan Powder Metallurgy Association (JPMA), 2000 was a good year for the country's PM industry. Usage of iron powder in 2000 rose to 191 697 tonnes, up 12.5% compared to 170 376 tonnes in 1999. Exports account for 16% of iron powder shipments. Japan's copper powder shipments were up 9% to 7226 tonnes in 2000. (More detailed accounts of the status of the Asian and
www.metal-powder.net
European PM markets will be published in subsequent issues.) Taking the figures for North America, Japan and Western Europe together, the international ferrous powder market increased by 5.5% in 2000, reaching 744 111 tonnes.
4500oo[ ~ 36°°°° t
,oooo
_
.,
iH
a. 180 000
0
Automotive parts
• PM parts
.:, Welding
• Other uses
With the automotive market continuing to dominate North Figure 1: North American iron powder shipments for PM, welding and other uses (courtesy of MPIF). America's PM industry, the production cutbacks announced by the 'Big Three' early in 2001 are 8ooo r having significant negative 7200 I impact. Most PM companies sell6300 I ~" 5400~ ing in the automotive market ~" 4500 were down by at least 15% during 3600 the first quarter of this year. 2700 Estimates of light vehicle pro~0 1800 9OO duction for the year vary month to 0 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 month, being cut from 16.1 million to 15.9 million earlier in the [ • US/Canada ] .estimate summer before rising again recently to a more optimistic 16.5-16.7 million. Regardless of final output, Figure 2: Shipments of stainless steel powder continue to show the actual PM content per vehicle promising growth in North America (courtesy of MPIF). continues to rise. Citing projections from American Metal Market, about 13.6 kg. GM is also planWhite reported that a typical US ning to use powder-forged (PF) family vehicle contains 4.2% more connecting rods for its new VPM parts in the 2001 model year shaped automotive engines: the than in 2000 - 17 kg (37.5 lb) up Electron V-6s, High-Value V-6s, from 16.3 kg. And the latest pre- Vortec V-8s and new inline four dictions from American Metal and five-cylinder engines. By the Market put the figure for 2002 end of this decade it is anticipated models closer to 18 kg (39 lb). that more than 90% of GM Powertrain applications account engines will use PF con rods. On for most of this increase. the other hand, DaimlerChrysler's The average PM content in the new V-6 engines are to use precitypical US domestic family vehicle sion-forged C70 steel rods, in has jumped about 50% since 1991 preference to PF rods. (10.7 kg) and about 150% during The use of PM planetary gear the past 25 years (7 kg). White carriers in automatic transmiscommented that in the last decade sions is slated to increase substanthe growth rate for PM has exceed- tially in the future, adding 1.4-1.8 ed that of plastic and plastic com- kg of traditional PM parts. posites, aluminium, steel sheet, In White's view, hybrid petroltube, bar and rod, and high and electric vehicles offer "real potenmedium-strength steel, while the tial for new PM applications". use of cast iron and zinc die cast- Ford, GM, DaimlerChrysler, ings has declined substantially. Honda and Toyota are all known Most new engines and transmis- to be investing heavily in this new sions are increasing their PM con- technology. Design engineers are tent. The Daimler-Chrysler 2.7 1 searching for alternative materials engine contains 88 PM parts, and technologies for these vehiwhile GM's new Vortec 4.2L cles; their powertrains could inline 6-cyclinder truck engines potentially contain up to 6 kg of contain 79 PM parts weighing PM parts. "As an industry we must
~
.
_
MPR September 2ool
11
not neglect this important potential market", White warned.
Bright spots Though the automotive market is currently in decline, many markets for metal powders continued to grow in 2000, White reported. Metal injection moulding (MIM) continues as a 'bright spot', with powder consumption in this sector up substantially in 2000. Estimates from MIMA put the size of the North American PIM market in 2000 at US$125 million for metal parts and $120 million for ceramic parts. MIM growth markets include automotive - where applications include a solenoid actuator for shift mechanism interlock, lock plates for a head rest adjustment mechanism, sun roof stop cam, an ignition lock side bar, and intricate air bag parts electronics and medical. According to White, the refractory metals industry experienced a fairly good year in 2000. Tungsten carbide shipments were up, and there was a significant increase in demand for tantalum capacitors.
The use of tungsten powder in small arms ammunition also continues to grow at a promising rate, and tungsten is also being considered as a replacement for lead in radiation and fishing weights. The hot isostatic pressing (HIP) industry is also reporting growth. The densification of PM billets and preforms, PM near-net shapes and HIP clad components are all promising markets. The international market for PM tool steel is also growing and is estimated at about 12 700 tonnes annually. For the PM industry as a whole, White maintained that the outlook for the next five to ten year is still positive. There has been substantial investments in new plants, equipment and R & D from powder manufacturers, equipment builders and PM parts fabricators. The consolidation trend through the 1990s continuing into the present decade has produced larger firms able to compete more effectively in the international marketplace, and with greater access to capital.
Planning for future growth
27 000
~
22 500
~
18 000 13 500
E
9000
4500 g g ggg~
ggggggg
g g
• PM parts ~ Otheruses
Figure 3: Copper and copper alloy powder shipments in North America (courtesy of MPIF).
Total: 744 108
720 00 ^
~ o ¢9
630 O0 540 00 450 00
"E 360 O0 270 00 :E
180 00
m
90 00
• Europe R Japan • North America • reflectsPMgraae powders only includesstainless steels after 1996
Figure 4: International shipments of iron and steel ~owders (courtesy of MPIF; sources: MPIF, EPMAand JPMA).
~2
MPR September 2ool
The MPIF has been involved with three independent studies examining the PM industry: the drawing up of an industry roadmap, funded through the Department of Energy Office of Industrial Technologies; an industry raarketing study commissioned from A.D. Little; and an ebusiness strategy study conducted by PSI Net. White reported that many of the recommendations were in common, suggesting there are certain aspects of the business that need particular attention in order to enhance and grow the PM industry. The main areas are: • Standards development • Enhancing PM's image as a high-tech process
• Establishing benchmarking criteria • Increasing R&D efforts to match those of competitive processes • E-developments, including the establishment of e-communications and portals to facilitate information exchange • Gathering intelligence on competitive processes • Education - for students, PM professionals and end-users. A number of the recommendations are in place, but need increased attention, while some are new suggestions. White said that establishing the issues that need to be addressed to accomplish what is being recommended will be the next big hurdle facing the PM industry, MPIF and its members. For one topic on the 'hit list' PM standards - 2000 was in fact a particularly good year. White reported that three new or revised standards were published by MPIF: the new Standard for Powder Forged Steel Parts; the revised Materials Standards for Metal Injection Molded Parts; and the new, revised Materials
Standards for PM Structural Parts. The MPIE through the Center for Powder Metallurgy Technology, is also cooperating with ISO to develop a new international PM materials standard that will include most of the data from MPIF Standard 35. As White concluded, the fundamentals of PM remain strong despite the current economic problems. "PM is a 21st century technology that provides answers to the relentless quest to reducing manufacturing costs while improving quality and reliability", he said. He remained confident that the economic storm will pass and that PM will then enter a new era of growth. Contact: Metal Powder Industries Federation lo5 College Road East, Princeton, NJ o854o-6692, USA. Tel: +1-6o9-452-77oo. Fax: +1-6o9-987-8523. E-mail: johnson@mpiLorg URL: www.mpif.org •
www.metal-powder.net