- Email: [email protected]
North American PM industry optimistic despite downturn
;vL'\ K.N~J
540
FORECASTS
MPR July/August 1990
Iron & Steel Stainless Steel Copper & Copper Base Aluminum Molybdenum Tungsten Tungsten Carbide Nickel Tin
1988 236,900 3,300 22,000 29,000 2,000 2,400 5,200 10,800 1,100
1989 218 ,000 3,400 20,300 33,500 2,000 2,100 5,300 10,200 1,000
312,700
295,800
TABLE North American metal powder shipments - 1988-1989 During this 10 year period iron and steel powder consumption is expected to increase more than 11% annually rising to approx.S650million by the turn of the century. Other fast growingmarketswill be toolsteel and stainless steei powders. Aluminium powders for PM applications is expected to increase, but tungsten carbide powder demand is expected to be hit by materials substitution, such as ceramics. and improvements in tool life. Anothermarketresearchgroup is forecasting an annual growth rate of 6.6% forPMparts up to 1994,and yet another is anticipating growth of 8-10% for PM net and near-net shaped parts, mill shapes and preforms, with global sales eventually reaching S15-S18 billion by the year 2000 fromcurrent S5-6 billion levels. White said that it was easyto forecast the future 5 to 10 years from now 'because right now there is no wrong or right answer', However. there are several reasons cited for these optimistic forecasts including, but not limited to:
products, White stated that a second-generation PM steel connectingrod is now being produced forthe new Ford V8 4.6 litre engine. Weighing 653 grams, this new product will add 10 Ibs of PM parts to the engine which will be used in the FordCrown Victory, Mercury Grand Marquis and Lincoln Town cars. Some 500,000 modular engines are expected to be built per year. The physical and metallurgical char-
acteristics of the rod have allowed Ford to introducea 'cracking'process to split the rod and cap. This has virtually eliminated any machining operations on the joint faces and has in itselfrevolutionised the machiningof connectingrods.Whitesaid that PM's superiorfatiguestrengthoverconventional wroughtrods,permitteda more precise low-weight rod. Other PM parts going into this new engine include valve seats and guides, crankshaft and camshaft sprockets, a data sensing wheel, and oil pump gerotors, This. say observers, will push the total content of PMcomponentsin the 4.6litre engine alone to the 15-181bsper engine, and when combined with other applications in the Fordcarscontaining these engines,some 30 Ibs of PM parts per car will be used. A new product being considered by Ford for 1992 is a composite metal camshaft with PM lobes. General Motorsand Chryslerare also actively developingnew PMparts for engines and transmissions, and GM is considering a PM connecting rod for its new 4.3 litre engine, said White. Development work is also taking place on titanium inlet and exhaust
nn cting Rod Lan mar
valves and a valveretainer, he said. The 1990s should herald renewed interestin other powder forged parts, said White. A PFsteel inner race wilt go into production this year for the General Motors F31 transmission for 4-speed front wheel driv e cars, and powder forgings will go into a new GM torque converter and also inner race in a new transmission for the 1991 full-size and intermediate front-wheel drive cars. Steel powder consumed in this section was said to havepeaked in 1989ataround 12.000 tons. Whitestated that additional business could be generated in sintered components with improved properties. Examples cited werea modified high density 316Lstainless steel that has received approval from the National Association of Corrosion Engineers. a first for a PM material; high conductivitycopperand porous PMparts are being designed for applications in card, circuit board and chip manufacturing. Other trends in the 1990s will be the use of submicron and nanocrystalline materials with high wear resistance and increased toughness;also the use of composites with micro platelets instead of whiskers,
in First
ard
(1)Increased globaluse ofPMin cars. (2) Increased use of powder forged parts. (3) Growing commercialisation of metal injection moulding. (4) Progress in development of high performance, low density alloys. (5)Emerging new alloys. (6)Use of PMtitanium in automotive components. Thereare, however,conflicting forces which might impede PM's growth such as the need to improve properties, non-availability ofa full range of alloy powders for fully dense products, competing .processes. and design changes requiring different production methods.
PRODUcr DEVELOPMENTS
Referring to some of the developments which will boostthe use of PM
542
MPR July/August 1990
1 o
7
77
Shipments of copper and copper-base powders in North America PM company employees. It will be available for purchase from the MPIF Publications Dept. The MPIF will be 'releasing a revised materials standard for PM Structural Parts, MPIF Standard 35, this summ er to include new property values for brass materials, and compressive yield stren gth data for all materials. The Powder Metallurgy Parts Association has spent some $50,000 in test-
ing work to develop new data for this very important industry standard. Safety, health and the environment are issues which the members of the MPIF will have to address in the 1990s. and have been included in the total MPIF Strategic Plan , stat ed White. He ind icated that the PM indu stry must be prepared to make some major. and possibly expensive changes .
Delegates were able to savour the grandeur of turn- of-the-century rail travel at the restored Pennsylvania Railroad Union Station in Puttsburgh
MPR July/August 1990
543
and multi-wear composites and structuralPMpartsjoinedbybrazing, weldingand bonding.
- - - - - - - - - -- - --- - - ,
25
METAL INJECfION MOULDING Metal injection moulding (MlM) is still showingstrongadvances, reported White, with annual growth estimates for MIM reaching as high as 30% compounded annually. World· wide salesofMIMpartsin 1989were estimatedat $43millionofwhich the USAshare is $31 million. This cornparesto estimatedworldwide sales of $21 million in 1988and $16 million in the USA. The Japanese share of 1988 MIM sales was about $2.2 million and about $6 million in 1989. Todayalmost 100% of the orthodontic appliances produced in the USA are made by MIM said White. RESEARCIIFUNDING Thereappearstobeconsiderable concern in North America as to the need for the PM industry to increase its researchefforts if the industrywas to maintainits positionasa worldleader in the technology. However, White
All Time Record Attendance at Pittsb urgh
976 197
982 1983 1984
988 989
North American iron powder shipments (short tons) (Source: Metal Powder Industries Federation) said that becausemany independent PMpart producers havelimited capital resources, they have a serious problemin investing in new technologyand researchand development. Two years ago the MPIF put to a Pennsylvanian Congressional Delegation the argument that the PM industryhad thepotentialtobe much greater than its current size, and requested $15 millionin government funds tospendovera 5-year periodon a varietyofapplied researchprojects. White said that under the leadership of Congressman John P. Murtha (Chairman of the Sub-committee on Defense of the House Appropriation Committee) the request for PM "research funding was put into the 1990 Defense Appropriation Bill under the US Navy Manufacturing Technology Program. The entire PM researcheffort wouldbe co-ordinated through the Center for PowderMetallurgyTechnology (CPMT), now situated in Princeton, NT, but which will be based at Metalworking TechnologiesInc.in Johnstown, Penna.(partof the University of Pittsburgh). White said that the ground work to beginthe actual programs and forthe CenterforPMTechnology to be approved as a keysub- contractorwas to have been completed early in April, but has been delayed. Healso Indicated that Howard Sanderowhas been hired by the Center on a part-time basis as its Technical Director. Whitehad reported in a recent issue of American Metal Market that the initial projects agreedtoby the CPMT and an independent PM industry committee wereproposedas follows: (1) Development of non-destructive 0
P Ulf G mm
544
all
test methods for PMparts, (2) Development ofcomputermodels that relate compaction process variables to the physicaland mechanical characteristics of unsintered PM parts. (3) Development of a real-time closed-loop system to optimize and controlthe sintering process. (4) Improvements of the dynamic properties .of PMmaterials. (5) Study of the effects of lubrication on the total PM process.
STRATEGIC PLANNING In his keynoteaddress, White stated that both the MPIF and APMI have beenassessing their roles to meet the changing needs of the PMindustry in the 1990s.'A Strategic Plan' for the future of each organisation is being developed. Both opportunities and threatsface us and we certainlywant to meet these challenges', he said. Areorganized Technical Board hopes to accomplish its objectives through workofcommittees concentrating on publications, professional development,technical assessment and conferences. The MPIF Industry DevelopmentBoardwill, meanwhile, continue its efforts to co-ordinate the marketing and public relations activitiesof the federation, to expand the market for PM parts and products, and to increasethe recognition ofour technology, said White. Whitereferredto the new PMeducationalfilm shown at the Awards Luncheon. The 14 minute film is aimedatabroadaudienceofstudents. potential customers, investors and MPR July/August 1990
540
FORECASTS
MPR July/August 1990
Iron & Steel Stainless Steel Copper & Copper Base Aluminum Molybdenum Tungsten Tungsten Carbide Nickel Tin
1988 236,900 3,300 22,000 29,000 2,000 2,400 5,200 10,800 1,100
1989 218 ,000 3,400 20,300 33,500 2,000 2,100 5,300 10,200 1,000
312,700
295,800
TABLE North American metal powder shipments - 1988-1989 During this 10 year period iron and steel powder consumption is expected to increase more than 11% annually rising to approx.S650million by the turn of the century. Other fast growingmarketswill be toolsteel and stainless steei powders. Aluminium powders for PM applications is expected to increase, but tungsten carbide powder demand is expected to be hit by materials substitution, such as ceramics. and improvements in tool life. Anothermarketresearchgroup is forecasting an annual growth rate of 6.6% forPMparts up to 1994,and yet another is anticipating growth of 8-10% for PM net and near-net shaped parts, mill shapes and preforms, with global sales eventually reaching S15-S18 billion by the year 2000 fromcurrent S5-6 billion levels. White said that it was easyto forecast the future 5 to 10 years from now 'because right now there is no wrong or right answer', However. there are several reasons cited for these optimistic forecasts including, but not limited to:
products, White stated that a second-generation PM steel connectingrod is now being produced forthe new Ford V8 4.6 litre engine. Weighing 653 grams, this new product will add 10 Ibs of PM parts to the engine which will be used in the FordCrown Victory, Mercury Grand Marquis and Lincoln Town cars. Some 500,000 modular engines are expected to be built per year. The physical and metallurgical char-
acteristics of the rod have allowed Ford to introducea 'cracking'process to split the rod and cap. This has virtually eliminated any machining operations on the joint faces and has in itselfrevolutionised the machiningof connectingrods.Whitesaid that PM's superiorfatiguestrengthoverconventional wroughtrods,permitteda more precise low-weight rod. Other PM parts going into this new engine include valve seats and guides, crankshaft and camshaft sprockets, a data sensing wheel, and oil pump gerotors, This. say observers, will push the total content of PMcomponentsin the 4.6litre engine alone to the 15-181bsper engine, and when combined with other applications in the Fordcarscontaining these engines,some 30 Ibs of PM parts per car will be used. A new product being considered by Ford for 1992 is a composite metal camshaft with PM lobes. General Motorsand Chryslerare also actively developingnew PMparts for engines and transmissions, and GM is considering a PM connecting rod for its new 4.3 litre engine, said White. Development work is also taking place on titanium inlet and exhaust
nn cting Rod Lan mar
valves and a valveretainer, he said. The 1990s should herald renewed interestin other powder forged parts, said White. A PFsteel inner race wilt go into production this year for the General Motors F31 transmission for 4-speed front wheel driv e cars, and powder forgings will go into a new GM torque converter and also inner race in a new transmission for the 1991 full-size and intermediate front-wheel drive cars. Steel powder consumed in this section was said to havepeaked in 1989ataround 12.000 tons. Whitestated that additional business could be generated in sintered components with improved properties. Examples cited werea modified high density 316Lstainless steel that has received approval from the National Association of Corrosion Engineers. a first for a PM material; high conductivitycopperand porous PMparts are being designed for applications in card, circuit board and chip manufacturing. Other trends in the 1990s will be the use of submicron and nanocrystalline materials with high wear resistance and increased toughness;also the use of composites with micro platelets instead of whiskers,
in First
ard
(1)Increased globaluse ofPMin cars. (2) Increased use of powder forged parts. (3) Growing commercialisation of metal injection moulding. (4) Progress in development of high performance, low density alloys. (5)Emerging new alloys. (6)Use of PMtitanium in automotive components. Thereare, however,conflicting forces which might impede PM's growth such as the need to improve properties, non-availability ofa full range of alloy powders for fully dense products, competing .processes. and design changes requiring different production methods.
PRODUcr DEVELOPMENTS
Referring to some of the developments which will boostthe use of PM
542
MPR July/August 1990
1 o
7
77
Shipments of copper and copper-base powders in North America PM company employees. It will be available for purchase from the MPIF Publications Dept. The MPIF will be 'releasing a revised materials standard for PM Structural Parts, MPIF Standard 35, this summ er to include new property values for brass materials, and compressive yield stren gth data for all materials. The Powder Metallurgy Parts Association has spent some $50,000 in test-
ing work to develop new data for this very important industry standard. Safety, health and the environment are issues which the members of the MPIF will have to address in the 1990s. and have been included in the total MPIF Strategic Plan , stat ed White. He ind icated that the PM indu stry must be prepared to make some major. and possibly expensive changes .
Delegates were able to savour the grandeur of turn- of-the-century rail travel at the restored Pennsylvania Railroad Union Station in Puttsburgh
MPR July/August 1990
543
and multi-wear composites and structuralPMpartsjoinedbybrazing, weldingand bonding.
- - - - - - - - - -- - --- - - ,
25
METAL INJECfION MOULDING Metal injection moulding (MlM) is still showingstrongadvances, reported White, with annual growth estimates for MIM reaching as high as 30% compounded annually. World· wide salesofMIMpartsin 1989were estimatedat $43millionofwhich the USAshare is $31 million. This cornparesto estimatedworldwide sales of $21 million in 1988and $16 million in the USA. The Japanese share of 1988 MIM sales was about $2.2 million and about $6 million in 1989. Todayalmost 100% of the orthodontic appliances produced in the USA are made by MIM said White. RESEARCIIFUNDING Thereappearstobeconsiderable concern in North America as to the need for the PM industry to increase its researchefforts if the industrywas to maintainits positionasa worldleader in the technology. However, White
All Time Record Attendance at Pittsb urgh
976 197
982 1983 1984
988 989
North American iron powder shipments (short tons) (Source: Metal Powder Industries Federation) said that becausemany independent PMpart producers havelimited capital resources, they have a serious problemin investing in new technologyand researchand development. Two years ago the MPIF put to a Pennsylvanian Congressional Delegation the argument that the PM industryhad thepotentialtobe much greater than its current size, and requested $15 millionin government funds tospendovera 5-year periodon a varietyofapplied researchprojects. White said that under the leadership of Congressman John P. Murtha (Chairman of the Sub-committee on Defense of the House Appropriation Committee) the request for PM "research funding was put into the 1990 Defense Appropriation Bill under the US Navy Manufacturing Technology Program. The entire PM researcheffort wouldbe co-ordinated through the Center for PowderMetallurgyTechnology (CPMT), now situated in Princeton, NT, but which will be based at Metalworking TechnologiesInc.in Johnstown, Penna.(partof the University of Pittsburgh). White said that the ground work to beginthe actual programs and forthe CenterforPMTechnology to be approved as a keysub- contractorwas to have been completed early in April, but has been delayed. Healso Indicated that Howard Sanderowhas been hired by the Center on a part-time basis as its Technical Director. Whitehad reported in a recent issue of American Metal Market that the initial projects agreedtoby the CPMT and an independent PM industry committee wereproposedas follows: (1) Development of non-destructive 0
P Ulf G mm
544
all
test methods for PMparts, (2) Development ofcomputermodels that relate compaction process variables to the physicaland mechanical characteristics of unsintered PM parts. (3) Development of a real-time closed-loop system to optimize and controlthe sintering process. (4) Improvements of the dynamic properties .of PMmaterials. (5) Study of the effects of lubrication on the total PM process.
STRATEGIC PLANNING In his keynoteaddress, White stated that both the MPIF and APMI have beenassessing their roles to meet the changing needs of the PMindustry in the 1990s.'A Strategic Plan' for the future of each organisation is being developed. Both opportunities and threatsface us and we certainlywant to meet these challenges', he said. Areorganized Technical Board hopes to accomplish its objectives through workofcommittees concentrating on publications, professional development,technical assessment and conferences. The MPIF Industry DevelopmentBoardwill, meanwhile, continue its efforts to co-ordinate the marketing and public relations activitiesof the federation, to expand the market for PM parts and products, and to increasethe recognition ofour technology, said White. Whitereferredto the new PMeducationalfilm shown at the Awards Luncheon. The 14 minute film is aimedatabroadaudienceofstudents. potential customers, investors and MPR July/August 1990