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Predictive Environment Carrying Capacity Assessment of Marine Reclamation by Prediction of Multiple Numerical Model
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
2014 International Conference on Agricultural and Biosystem Engineering
Predictive Environment Carrying Capacity Assessment of Marine Reclamation by Prediction of Multiple Numerical Model Mingchang Lia,b,c,* a
Laboratory of Environmental Protection in Water Transport Engineering, Tianjin Research Institute of Water Transport Engineering, Tianjin, 300456, P. R. China b State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, P. R. China c School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, P. R. China
Abstract The environment carrying capacity assessment of marine reclamation has an influence of improving the level of environmental impact evaluation. In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed. In the proposed method, the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation are used to calculate the changed amount and ration of relative indexes. A cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity. Case study is carried out in Caofeidian marine district, Tangshan Bay, China. The assessment results show that the proposed method is suitable to study the comprehensive environment carrying capacity influencing by the marine reclamation. © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute Keywords: Predictive; environment carrying capacity; assessment; reclamation; marine
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-22-59812345; fax: +86-22-59812389. E-mail address: [email protected].
2212-6678 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute doi:10.1016/j.ieri.2014.09.017
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Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
1. Introduction The marine reclamation has led to the environmental and ecological problem with the rapid development of national economy. The environmental impact assessment of marine reclamation focuses on many sections, such as the hydrodynamics, water exchange, environmental risk, marine ecology and sediment etc. But a comprehensive assessment is absent, so the assessment results and the last conclusions are not all-sided. So the research of the predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment is meaningful and useful for guiding and managing the marine reclamation. So many assessment methods have been proposed and applied to many fields including ocean water quality and carrying capacity[1-3], but several defects exist in these methods[3]. In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment method is proposed by the prediction of multiple models and methods which are cloud theory[4], hydrodynamics model[5], diffusion model[5] and sediment model[5]. The predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment method is applied to evaluate the environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation in Caofeidian marine district, Tangshan Bay, China. The structure of this paper follows. In Section 2, the assessment method, procedure and the basic models are introduced firstly. The proposed method is used to evaluate the environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation in Section 3. Finally, the conclusions are presented in the Section 4. 2. Numerical models and methods The predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed in this paper. 2.1. Procedure of carrying capacity Assessment method by prediction of multiple numerical models In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed. The procedure of proposed method is shown in the Fig 1. In the proposed method, the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation are used to calculate the changed amount and ration of relative indexes. After the indexes are calculated, a cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity by these predicted indexes with the level standard of indexes.
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
Fig. 1. The procedure of proposed method
2.2. Carrying capacity assessment method Cloud theory[4] is developed based on probability and fuzzy mathematic. Its basic algorithm is to build an uncertainty transformation model for the exchange between concept and quantity. The randomness and ambiguity can reacted in this model, which has been applied to system evaluation, algorithm improvement, decision support, intelligent control, data mining, knowledge discovery and network security[6]. A synthetic assessment method and systematic procedure[6] are utilized to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity in this paper. 2.3. Hydrodynamics model A hydrodynamic model[5] is employed for simulating the current field changes in this paper and triangle mesh technique is applied for close to complex coastline. 2.4. Diffusion model Based on the hydrodynamic model, a diffusion model[5] is employed for simulating the suspended solids diffusion in this paper. 2.5. Sediment model Based on the hydrodynamic model and sediment characteristic, a sediment model is applied to simulate and predict the sediment transportation in this paper[5].
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Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
3. Case study Case study is carried out with a real ocean bay named The Caofeidian marine district of Tangshan Bay, north part of Liaodong Bay, China. 3.1. Research marine district The Caofeidian marine district locates in the northwest of Bohai Sea, which is the center of Tangshan Bay. The length of coastline is 17 km. The total area is about 16 km2. The tide hydrodynamic is controlled by the tidal waves of the Bohai Sea, so the tidal current is complicated[7]. The Caofeidian port has been constructed by reclamation in recent years.
Fig. 2. The position of research marine district and three stations
Fig 2 shows the position of research marine district. The Caofeidian port has been constructed by reclamation from the Fig 1. The blue line is a new planning waterway.
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Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
3.2. Assessment Indexes and levels of Environment Carrying Capacity of marine reclamation In this paper, three assessment indexes are selected for evaluating the environment carrying capacity level of marine reclamation. These indexes are the sediment amount of scouring and silting, the changed ratio of zooplankton and the changed ratio of benthos respectively. The assessment levels of the three indexes are shown in the Table 1. Four assessment levels are used for evaluating the carrying capacity level, that is slight, kind, serious and destructive respectively. Table1 Assessment levels of indexes[8]
Assessment indexes
Environment carrying capacity level Slight (I)
Kind (II)
Serious (III)
Destructive (IV)
The sediment amount of scouring and silting (cm/a)
0-5
5-10
10-20
20-Max1
The changed ratio of zooplankton (%)
0-15
15-60
60-80
80-100
The changed ratio of benthos (%)
0-15
15-60
60-80
80-100
Note: Max1 is the max value of assessment index.
3.3. Assessment results and analysis Through the numerical modeling of hydrodynamics model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss calculation, the predicted values of assessment indexes are obtained which are shown in table 2. Following the proposed assessment procedure, the comprehensive environment carrying capacity is calculated, that is kind (II). Although the assessment result shows that this marine reclamation has a little influence for marine ecology and environment and it's acceptable. The marine environmental management need be strengthened to decline the impact of marine reclamation. Table 2 Predicted values of assessment indexes Assessment indexes
Predicted values
The sediment amount of scouring and silting (cm/a)
15
The changed ratio of zooplankton (%)
0.8
The changed ratio of benthos (%)
3.88
4. Conclusion In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation is proposed by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods which are the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation. A cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity. The assessment results case study show that the proposed method is suitable to study the comprehensive environment carrying capacity influencing by the marine reclamation.
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Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51209110), the project of Science and Technology for Development of Ocean in Tianjin (KJXH2011-17), the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology (LP1108) and the National Nonprofit Institute Research Grants of TIWTE (TKS130215 and KJFZJJ2011-01).
References [1] Si, Q., Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., et al. Set pair analysis method for water quality evaluation based on nonlinear power function[J]. Appl. Mech. Mater., 2012;573-574:497-500. [2] Feng L.H., Wang J.Y., Zhang M.Z. Grey clustering evaluation of environmental quality[J]. Environ. Protect. Sci., 2000;26:37-39. [3] Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., You X.Y. Set pair analysis method with nonlinear membership function for sea water quality assessment[J]. J. Hebei Univ. Technol., 2010;39:81-86. [4] Li D.Y., Du Y. Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[M]. Beijing: National Defence Industry Press, 2005. [5] DHI Water and Environment. User guide of MIKE 21 [M]. Scientific Documentation, 2007. [6] Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., Si Q., et al. Synthetic assessment method with cloud theory for marine water quality[J]. Appl. Mech. Mater., 2013;295-298:821-826. [7] Li M.C., Liang S.X., Sun Z.C., et al. Optimal estimation for key parameters of the marine quality model using data-driven neural network[J]. J. Mar. Sci. Technol., 2010;18:771-779. [8] Yang S.L., Luo M.X. Predictive assessment of environmental impact of reclamation planning in the bays of Fujian Province[M]. Beijing: Science press, 2008.
ScienceDirect IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
2014 International Conference on Agricultural and Biosystem Engineering
Predictive Environment Carrying Capacity Assessment of Marine Reclamation by Prediction of Multiple Numerical Model Mingchang Lia,b,c,* a
Laboratory of Environmental Protection in Water Transport Engineering, Tianjin Research Institute of Water Transport Engineering, Tianjin, 300456, P. R. China b State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, P. R. China c School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, P. R. China
Abstract The environment carrying capacity assessment of marine reclamation has an influence of improving the level of environmental impact evaluation. In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed. In the proposed method, the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation are used to calculate the changed amount and ration of relative indexes. A cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity. Case study is carried out in Caofeidian marine district, Tangshan Bay, China. The assessment results show that the proposed method is suitable to study the comprehensive environment carrying capacity influencing by the marine reclamation. © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute Keywords: Predictive; environment carrying capacity; assessment; reclamation; marine
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-22-59812345; fax: +86-22-59812389. E-mail address: [email protected].
2212-6678 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer review under responsibility of Information Engineering Research Institute doi:10.1016/j.ieri.2014.09.017
102
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
1. Introduction The marine reclamation has led to the environmental and ecological problem with the rapid development of national economy. The environmental impact assessment of marine reclamation focuses on many sections, such as the hydrodynamics, water exchange, environmental risk, marine ecology and sediment etc. But a comprehensive assessment is absent, so the assessment results and the last conclusions are not all-sided. So the research of the predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment is meaningful and useful for guiding and managing the marine reclamation. So many assessment methods have been proposed and applied to many fields including ocean water quality and carrying capacity[1-3], but several defects exist in these methods[3]. In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment method is proposed by the prediction of multiple models and methods which are cloud theory[4], hydrodynamics model[5], diffusion model[5] and sediment model[5]. The predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity assessment method is applied to evaluate the environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation in Caofeidian marine district, Tangshan Bay, China. The structure of this paper follows. In Section 2, the assessment method, procedure and the basic models are introduced firstly. The proposed method is used to evaluate the environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation in Section 3. Finally, the conclusions are presented in the Section 4. 2. Numerical models and methods The predictive comprehensive environment carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed in this paper. 2.1. Procedure of carrying capacity Assessment method by prediction of multiple numerical models In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods is proposed. The procedure of proposed method is shown in the Fig 1. In the proposed method, the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation are used to calculate the changed amount and ration of relative indexes. After the indexes are calculated, a cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity by these predicted indexes with the level standard of indexes.
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
Fig. 1. The procedure of proposed method
2.2. Carrying capacity assessment method Cloud theory[4] is developed based on probability and fuzzy mathematic. Its basic algorithm is to build an uncertainty transformation model for the exchange between concept and quantity. The randomness and ambiguity can reacted in this model, which has been applied to system evaluation, algorithm improvement, decision support, intelligent control, data mining, knowledge discovery and network security[6]. A synthetic assessment method and systematic procedure[6] are utilized to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity in this paper. 2.3. Hydrodynamics model A hydrodynamic model[5] is employed for simulating the current field changes in this paper and triangle mesh technique is applied for close to complex coastline. 2.4. Diffusion model Based on the hydrodynamic model, a diffusion model[5] is employed for simulating the suspended solids diffusion in this paper. 2.5. Sediment model Based on the hydrodynamic model and sediment characteristic, a sediment model is applied to simulate and predict the sediment transportation in this paper[5].
103
104
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
3. Case study Case study is carried out with a real ocean bay named The Caofeidian marine district of Tangshan Bay, north part of Liaodong Bay, China. 3.1. Research marine district The Caofeidian marine district locates in the northwest of Bohai Sea, which is the center of Tangshan Bay. The length of coastline is 17 km. The total area is about 16 km2. The tide hydrodynamic is controlled by the tidal waves of the Bohai Sea, so the tidal current is complicated[7]. The Caofeidian port has been constructed by reclamation in recent years.
Fig. 2. The position of research marine district and three stations
Fig 2 shows the position of research marine district. The Caofeidian port has been constructed by reclamation from the Fig 1. The blue line is a new planning waterway.
105
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
3.2. Assessment Indexes and levels of Environment Carrying Capacity of marine reclamation In this paper, three assessment indexes are selected for evaluating the environment carrying capacity level of marine reclamation. These indexes are the sediment amount of scouring and silting, the changed ratio of zooplankton and the changed ratio of benthos respectively. The assessment levels of the three indexes are shown in the Table 1. Four assessment levels are used for evaluating the carrying capacity level, that is slight, kind, serious and destructive respectively. Table1 Assessment levels of indexes[8]
Assessment indexes
Environment carrying capacity level Slight (I)
Kind (II)
Serious (III)
Destructive (IV)
The sediment amount of scouring and silting (cm/a)
0-5
5-10
10-20
20-Max1
The changed ratio of zooplankton (%)
0-15
15-60
60-80
80-100
The changed ratio of benthos (%)
0-15
15-60
60-80
80-100
Note: Max1 is the max value of assessment index.
3.3. Assessment results and analysis Through the numerical modeling of hydrodynamics model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss calculation, the predicted values of assessment indexes are obtained which are shown in table 2. Following the proposed assessment procedure, the comprehensive environment carrying capacity is calculated, that is kind (II). Although the assessment result shows that this marine reclamation has a little influence for marine ecology and environment and it's acceptable. The marine environmental management need be strengthened to decline the impact of marine reclamation. Table 2 Predicted values of assessment indexes Assessment indexes
Predicted values
The sediment amount of scouring and silting (cm/a)
15
The changed ratio of zooplankton (%)
0.8
The changed ratio of benthos (%)
3.88
4. Conclusion In this paper, a predictive comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of marine reclamation is proposed by the prediction of multiple numerical models and methods which are the hydrodynamics model, water exchange model, suspend solids diffusion model, sediment model and ecological loss equation. A cloud theory model is applied to evaluate the comprehensive environment carrying capacity. The assessment results case study show that the proposed method is suitable to study the comprehensive environment carrying capacity influencing by the marine reclamation.
106
Mingchang Li / IERI Procedia 8 (2014) 101 – 106
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51209110), the project of Science and Technology for Development of Ocean in Tianjin (KJXH2011-17), the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology (LP1108) and the National Nonprofit Institute Research Grants of TIWTE (TKS130215 and KJFZJJ2011-01).
References [1] Si, Q., Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., et al. Set pair analysis method for water quality evaluation based on nonlinear power function[J]. Appl. Mech. Mater., 2012;573-574:497-500. [2] Feng L.H., Wang J.Y., Zhang M.Z. Grey clustering evaluation of environmental quality[J]. Environ. Protect. Sci., 2000;26:37-39. [3] Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., You X.Y. Set pair analysis method with nonlinear membership function for sea water quality assessment[J]. J. Hebei Univ. Technol., 2010;39:81-86. [4] Li D.Y., Du Y. Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[M]. Beijing: National Defence Industry Press, 2005. [5] DHI Water and Environment. User guide of MIKE 21 [M]. Scientific Documentation, 2007. [6] Li M.C., Zhang G.Y., Si Q., et al. Synthetic assessment method with cloud theory for marine water quality[J]. Appl. Mech. Mater., 2013;295-298:821-826. [7] Li M.C., Liang S.X., Sun Z.C., et al. Optimal estimation for key parameters of the marine quality model using data-driven neural network[J]. J. Mar. Sci. Technol., 2010;18:771-779. [8] Yang S.L., Luo M.X. Predictive assessment of environmental impact of reclamation planning in the bays of Fujian Province[M]. Beijing: Science press, 2008.