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Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
CHAPTER
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Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future Alan I. Benimoff, William J. Fritz and Michael Kress
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àWFQPJOUQMBO 1SPUFDUUIFFYJTUJOHOBUVSBM CBSSJFSTmUIFCFBDIFTBOEEVOFT CVJMEUIFNIJHIFS SF[POFJO UIFáPPE[POFBOECVZVQBTNBOZQSPQFSUJFTBTQPTTJCMFJOMPXMZJOH BSFBT UVSOJOHUIFNJOUPQBSLMBOE CFWFSZDBSFGVMBCPVUFOHJOFFSJOH TPMVUJPOT TVDI BT TFB CBSSJFST CFDBVTF UIFZ XJMM OPU POMZ CF FYQFOTJWF CVUOFDFTTBSJMZQSPUFDUPOFBSFBBUUIFFYQFOTFPGBOPUIFS QSPWJEF FEVDBUJPOUPSFTJEFOUTPG4UBUFO*TMBOE Keywords: 4VQFSTUPSN 4BOEZ 4UBUFO *TMBOE (FPHSBQIJD *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFN BEWBODFE DJSDVMBUJPO NPEFM GPS PDFBOJD DPBTUBM BOE FTUVBSJOF XBUFST "%$*3$ TUPSNTVSHF
3.1 INTRODUCTION 0O0DUPCFS 4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZJOáJDUFEBEFWBTUBUJOHCMPXUP PVSQPSUJPOPGUIF&BTU$PBTU5IFTUPSNQSPWJEFEBXBLFVQDBMMUP UIFøFOUJSF/FX:PSL.FUSPQPMJUBOBSFBCVUFTQFDJBMMZUP4UBUFO*TMBOE 5IF3PDLBXBZT #SFF[Z1PJOU BOEPUIFSMPXMZJOHDPBTUBMBSFBT"TXF NPWF JOUP UIF GVUVSF BOE GBDF PUIFS QPUFOUJBMMZ DBUBTUSPQIJD XFBUIFS Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801520-9.00003-1 Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
FWFOUT XF NVTU VTF XIBU XF IBWF MFBSOFE GSPN QBTU TUPSNT TVDI BT 4BOEZUPTFSWFBTBSPBENBQGPSUIFGVUVSF *O BEEJUJPO JU JT DSJUJDBM UP FNCSBDF UIF JNQPSUBODF PG UBLJOH BO JOUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZBQQSPBDIUPXBSEGPSNVMBUJOHBSFTQPOTFUPBOEQSFQBS JOHGPSOBUVSBMEJTBTUFST #FOJNPGGFUøBM øB C D "TXFMPPLCBDLBU UIF IJTUPSZ PG XFBUIFS EJTBTUFST TDJFOUJTUT IBWF NBEF QSFEJDUJPOT CVU GFXQPMJDZNBLFSTBOENFNCFSTPGUIFQVCMJDIBWFBDUFEPOUIFJSXBSO JOHT*OPSEFSGPSUIFTFXBSOJOHTUPCFSFDFJWFE UIFTDJFOUJàDDPNNVOJUZ NVTUCSJOHJOUPUIFJSEJTDVTTJPOTBWBSJFUZPGQFPQMFTVDIBTTDJFOUJTUT HFPMPHJTUT FOHJOFFST TPDJBM TDJFOUJTUT DPVOTFMPST QPMJUJDBM TDJFOUJTUT QPMJUJDJBOT FDPOPNJTUT DPNNVOJUZNFNCFST DJUZQMBOOFST FNFSHFODZ SFTQPOEFST HPWFSONFOUBHFODJFT BOEUIFCVTJOFTTDPNNVOJUZ5IJTXJMM QSPWJEF B TJHOJàDBOUMZ NPSF FGGFDUJWF UFBN BQQSPBDI JO UIF GBDF PG B MJLFMZJODSFBTFJOUIFGSFRVFODZBOETFWFSJUZPGUSPQJDBMTUPSNT
3.1.1 An Active, But Overlooked Storm History 8FSFDFOUMZIFMEBOJOUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZGPSVN IUUQXXXDTJDVOZFEVTBO EZGPSVNOFXTIUNM JOXIJDIXFCSPVHIUUPHFUIFSDPNNVOJUZFYQFSUTUP EFBMXJUIBOVNCFSPGBTQFDUTPGTUPSNTVSHFBOEáPPEJOH*OBEEJUJPOUP UIFHFPMPHJDJTTVFT XFBMTPEFBMUXJUIUPQJDTTVDIBTUIFIVNBOJNQBDU UIFFDPOPNJDBOEQPMJUJDBMBTQFDUT BOEUIFOFFEGPSNPSFFEVDBUJPO 4FWFSF TUPSNT FYUSBUSPQJDBM BOE IVSSJDBOF FYQFSJFODFE JO UIF /FX :PSL)BSCPS"SFBBSFQMPUUFEJOUIFUJNFMJOFTIPXOJO'JHVSFø"UMFBTU PGUIFTFTFWFSFTUPSNTIBWFPDDVSSFEJOUIFQBTUøZFBSTGPSBOBWFSBHF PGPOFTUPSNFWFSZøZFBST*UJTVODMFBSJGUIFTUPSNT QPTU SFQSFTFOU BOJODSFBTFJOGSFRVFODZPSTJNQMZUIFMBDLPGIJTUPSJDBMEBUBJOUIFTFWFO UFFOUIBOEFJHIUFFOUIDFOUVSJFT8FTVHHFTUUIBUUIFUSVFBWFSBHFPGTUPSN TVSHFTJOUIF/FX:PSLBSFBNBZCFTJHOJàDBOUMZMFTTUIBOøZFBST
Fig. 3.1. Hurricane and major storm events affecting the NYC area. 4PVSDFQSF64"SNZ$PSQTPG &OHJOFFST
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
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*O BIVSSJDBOFPGVOLOPXOTUSFOHUIXJUIB NTVSHF CBTFE POPVSBOBMZTJTPGOFXTQBQFSQIPUPT TUSVDLUIFBSFB BOEJO BO VOOBNFE $BUFHPSZ IVSSJDBOF TPNFUJNFT DBMMFE UIF i-POH *TMBOE &YQSFTTu QSPEVDFE B TVSHF PG BQQSPYJNBUFMZ N 5IFTF TUPSNT GPS UIFø NPTU QBSU XFOU VOOPUJDFE BU MFBTU PO 4UBUFO *TMBOE CFDBVTF UIF TVSHFTáPXFEBDSPTTVOEFWFMPQFENBSTIMBOE 5IFTVNNFSTUPSNPGDBVTFETFWFSFáPPEJOHJOUIF4XFFUCSPPL %SBJOBHF#BTJO #FOJNPGG ø 5IFXJOUFSTUPSNPGSFTVMUFEJO FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH GSPN TUPSN TVSHF 4FWFSF áPPEJOH PDDVSSFE EVSJOH 5SPQJDBM4UPSN'MPZE XIFOøNNPGSBJOGFMM BTSFDPSEFE BUUIF$4*XFBUIFSTUBUJPO5IFIZESPMPHJDSFTQPOTFUP)VSSJDBOF*SFOF XBTFYUFOTJWFáPPEJOHJOUIF3JDINPOEUPXOBSFB XIFSFUIFHBVH JOHTUBUJPO 64(4 BUUIF3JDINPOE$SFFL#MVFCFMU#.1 SFDPSEFE B TUBHF PG ø N JOTUFBE PG UIF OPSNBM TUBHF PG ø N FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH JO UIF 8JMMPXCSPPL BSFB BOE FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH JO UIF4PVUI .JEMBOE BOE'PY#FBDIBSFBT5IF#MVFCFMUJTBTUPSNXBUFS NBOBHFNFOUTZTUFNEFTJHOFEBOEJNQMFNFOUFECZUIF/FX:PSL$JUZ %FQBSUNFOUPG&OWJSPONFOUBM1SPUFDUJPOUIBUVUJMJ[FTFYJTUJOHTUSFBNT CZJOTUBMMJOH#FTU.BOBHFNFOU1SBDUJDFT #.1T " WJFX PG QBTU "UMBOUJD IVSSJDBOF USBDLT 4DJMFQQJ BOE %POOFMMZ &MTFOFS FUø BM ø TIPXT UIBU NPTU "UMBOUJD IVSSJDBOFT TUBSU PGGøUIFXFTUDPBTUPG"GSJDBUSBWFMJOHXFTUBOEBSFEFáFDUFEQBSBMMFMVQ UIFFBTUDPBTUPGUIF644VQFSTUPSN4BOEZXBTOFBSMZBiDPBTUOPS NBMuIVSSJDBOF BTJUTUSVDLUIF/FX+FSTFZDPBTUXIJMFUSBWFMJOHBUBO BOHMFBMNPTUQFSQFOEJDVMBSUPUIFDPBTUMJOF5IJTXBTEVFUPTFWFSBMGBD UPST POFPGXIJDIXBTBiOFHBUJWFMZUJMUFEUSPVHIu ,JFGGFS ø #MBLF FU BM JO UIF QPMBS KFU TUSFBN UIBU XBT JO DMPTF QSPYJNJUZ UP UIF TVCUSPQJDBMKFUTUSFBN5IFSFXBTBMTPBCMPDLJOHIJHIJOUIFOPSUIUIBU QSFWFOUFE4BOEZGSPNHPJOHPVUUPTFB5IFUSBDLPG4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ JTBOFYDFFEJOHMZSBSFFWFOUBTDBMDVMBUFECZ)BMMBOE4PCFM XJUI B SFUVSO QFSJPE PG ø ZFBST 5IFZ EJE OPU GBDUPS JO UIF TUPSN TVSHF CFDBVTFUIFZJOEJDBUFUIBUTUPSNTVSHFEFQFOETPONBOZGBDUPST5IJT USBDLQVUUIFOPSUIFBTUFSORVBESBOUPGUIFIVSSJDBOFJOUIF/FX:PSL .FUSPQPMJUBO BSFB *O UIBU RVBESBOU UIF GPSXBSE TQFFE BOE UIF XJOE TQFFEBSFBEEJUJWF QSPEVDJOHUIFHSFBUFTUTUPSNTVSHF$PVQMFUIJTXJUI UIF SJHIU BOHMF JO UIF DPBTUMJOF 'JHVSFø BOE JU JT DMFBS UIBU 4UBUFO *TMBOEXBTJOQBSUJDVMBSEBOHFSGSPN4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.2. DEM of NYC region showing right angle in coastline. Color scale goes from red (40 m above sea level and higher) to blue (20 m below sea level or lower). Map generated by the CUNY Interdisciplinary HighPerformance Computing Center at the College of Staten Island. #BTF*NBHF5FSSBNFUSJDT 64/BWZ/(" (&#$0 (PPHMF&BSUI
3.2 STORM DYNAMICS, NYC’S UNFORTUNATE LOCATION, AND A DANGEROUSLY SHIFTING LANDSCAPE &WFSZTUPSNJTEJGGFSFOU BTTUSFOHUI FZFUSBDL UJEFT BOEPUIFSXFBUIFS TZTUFNT BSF BMM WBSJBCMF GBDUPST 5IF TVSHF CFHJOT BT B MPXQSFTTVSF CVMHFøJOUIFPDFBOJOUIFFZFPGUIFTUPSN TJNJMBSUPXBUFSSJTJOHJOUP BWBDVVNDMFBOFS 8JOETQJMFXBUFSPOUPQPGUIFCVMHFBOEUIFUJEF UIFOMJGUTUIFXBUFSUPBOFWFOIJHIFSMFWFM5IF/FX:PSLNFUSPQPMJUBO BSFBJTMPDBUFEJOBQBSUJDVMBSMZWVMOFSBCMFBSFB*OGBDU JUJTUIFNPTU EBOHFSPVTQMBDFPOUIF&BTUFSO4FBCPBSE5IFSJHIUBOHMFPGUIFDPBTU MJOF 'JHVSFø
B SFTVMU PG UIF JOUFSTFDUJPO PG UIF /FX +FSTFZ 4IPSF BOE-POH*TMBOE BOEDPVOUFSDMPDLXJTFSPUBUJPO QVTIFTXJOEBOEXBUFS BHBJOTU4UBUFO*TMBOEBOEVQ/FX:PSL)BSCPS5IJTTVSHFXBUFSJTUIFO USBQQFECZXJOETGPSDJOHXBUFSXFTUXBSEBMPOH-POH*TMBOE4PVOE 4UBUFO*TMBOEJTQBSUJDVMBSMZWVMOFSBCMF JOUIJTSFHBSE5IFOBSSPXJOH QBTTBHFDSFBUFECZUIF-POH*TMBOEBOE/FX+FSTFZTIPSFT DPNCJOFE XJUI B TFB áPPS SBNQ UIBU HSPXT JODSFBTJOHMZ TIBMMPX QSFTTVSJ[FT UIF XBUFSBOEBJNTJUBHBJOTUUIF4PVUI4IPSF TJHOJàDBOUMZJODSFBTJOHUIF
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
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IFJHIUBOEJOUFOTJUZPGUIFTVSHF5XFOUZUISFF4UBUFO*TMBOESFTJEFOUT EJFEBTBSFTVMUPG4BOEZ *ODSFBTJOHTFBMFWFMTPOMZFYBDFSCBUFUIFTVSHF BOEIJHIFSTFBMFWFMT TIPVMEOPXCFDPOTJEFSFEBTUIFOFXOPSNBM'PSUIFQBTUøZFBST UIF TFBMFWFMIBTCFFOJODSFBTJOHBUBCPVUBGPPUQFSDFOUVSZ BOEUIBUSBUF JTMJLFMZUPJODSFBTFQFSIBQTUPBTNVDIBTUXPUPàWFGFFUQFSDFOUVSZ 3BINTUPSG ø 5IFTF FGGFDUT IBWF CFFO IJEEFO CFDBVTF UIF TIPSF IBT CFFO EFWFMPQJOH GBTUFS UIBO UIF TFBMFWFM SJTF HSPXUI XIJDI JT OPU TVTUBJOBCMF BOEFYUSFNFMZEBOHFSPVT 5IF64(4UPQPHSBQIJDNBQPG4UBUFO*TMBOE /: 'JHVSFø TIPXT FYUFOTJWF UJEBM XFUMBOET PO JUT FBTUFSO TIPSF %VSJOH UIJT UJNF
Fig. 3.3. 1902 topographic map of Staten Island, New York from USGS 1902 Topographic Map). Note marshland and tidal channels that were at or below sea level in 1902 along the East Shore of Staten Island when sea level was about a foot lower than today (2014
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
UIFTF UJEBM XFUMBOET XFSF BCMF UP BCTPSC UIF XBUFST GSPN IVSSJDBOF TVSHFT#BSSJFSJTMBOET NBSTIFT DPBTUBMEVOFàFMET FTUVBSJFT BOECBZT TFSWFBTOBUVSFTTQPOHFT BCTPSCJOHUIFGPSDFPGBTUPSNTVSHFBOETUPSJOH XBUFS NJUJHBUJOHEBNBHFBOEáPPEJOH"TBSFTVMUPGEFWFMPQNFOU XF IBWFIBSETDBQFEUIFTFTQPOHFT NBLJOHUIFTFBSFBTFYUSFNFMZTVTDFQUJCMF UPáPPEEBNBHF #FOJNPGG
JOIJT(*4TUVEZ SFQPSUFEPOFYUFOTJWFVSCBOJ[B UJPOPGUIF4-04) 4FB-BLFBOE0WFSMBOE4VSHFTGSPN)VSSJDBOFT [POFTEVSJOHUIFQFSJPEPGUISPVHI6TJOHQSF4BOEZ4-04) NPEFM )VSSJDBOF *OVOEBUJPO ;POFT EBUB NBEF BWBJMBCMF CZ UIF /FX :PSL 4UBUF 0GàDF PG &NFSHFODZ .BOBHFNFOU /:40&. BOE iMBOE VTFuEBUBPCUBJOFEGSPNUIF/FX:PSL$JUZ%FQBSUNFOUPG$JUZ1MBO OJOH XF IBWF QMPUUFE 'JHVSFTø m VSCBOJ[BUJPO QBUUFSOT JO UIFTF IVSSJDBOFWVMOFSBCMF [POFT PG 4UBUFO *TMBOE /: )VSSJDBOF TUPSN TVSHF [POFT BSF CBTFE PO /0"" 4-04) NPEFM QSPKFDUJPOT PG WFSUJ DBM TVSHF IFJHIUT BTTPDJBUFE XJUI 4BGàS4JNQTPO4DBMF DBUFHPSZ m TUPSNT /:40&. 0VS(*4BOBMZTJTTIPXTUIFQSPHSFTTJWFVSCBOJ[B
Fig. 3.4. Number of structures vs. year built on Staten Island for SLOSH Zones 1 and 2 from 1900 to 2008. White solid line = SLOSH Zone 1; yellow solid line = SLOSH zone 2; upper dashed line = trendline for SLOSH Zone 1; lower dotted line = trendline for SLOSH Zone 2. Data source: NYC PLUTO.
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
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Fig. 3.5. GIS map showing east shore of Staten Island. The white squares indicate urbanized blocks and lots prior to 1900 appearing in SLOSH Zone 1.
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.6. GIS map showing east shore of Staten Island. The white squares indicate urbanized parcels of land between the years 1898 and 2008 appearing in SLOSH Zones 1 and 2.
3.3 MODELING THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTORMS, BEFORE AND AFTER SANDY 'PS TFWFSBM ZFBST XF IBWF CFFO XPSLJOH BT QBSU PG BO JOUFSEJTDJQMJO BSZ UFBN VTJOH 5IF $JUZ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /FX :PSLT *OUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZ )JHI1FSGPSNBODF$PNQVUJOH$FOUFS $6/:*)1$$
IPVTFEBUUIF $PMMFHFPG4UBUFO*TMBOE UPNPEFMIPXTUPSNTVSHFTNJHIUJNQBDUUIF /FX:PSLNFUSPQPMJUBOBSFB 0VS$FOUFSIPVTFTUXPPGUIFMBUFTUHFOFSBUJPO$SBZTVQFSDPNQVUFST BOEDPWFSTBMMNPEFSODPNQVUBUJPOBMBSDIJUFDUVSF5IF$6/:*)1$$ DBOIBOEMFNBTTJWFBNPVOUTPGEBUB 0VS DPNQVUJOH QPXFS XBT BMTP VTFE CZ /FX :PSL $JUZ GPS SJTL BOBMZTJTBOETUPSNTVSHFQSFWFOUJPO GPSFYBNQMF "3$"%*4JO.BZPS
Fig. 3.7. FEMA damage assessment for Midland Beach Area. The blue area represents the Sandy inundation (source: FEMA). Note that the most severe damage occurs in old tidal channels shown in Fig. 3.3.
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future 29
Fig. 3.8. FEMA damage assessments for Oakwood Beach, Fox Beach, and New Dorp Beach. The blue area represents Sandy inundation (source: FEMA). As in Fig. 3.7, note that the most severe damage occurs in old tidal channels shown in Fig. 3.3.
30 Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
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#MPPNCFSHT SFQPSU PO /:$ TQFDJBM JOJUJBUJWF GPS SFCVJMEJOH BOE SFTJMJFODF<+VOF>
3.3.1 Storm-Surge Applications for NYC .BOZUFBNTIBWFNPEFMFEQPUFOUJBMTUPSNTVSHFJNQBDUGSPN/PSUI$BSP MJOBTPVUI)PXFWFS GFXIBWFMPPLFEBUDPOEJUJPOTOPSUIPGUIF$BSPMJOBT #FDBVTFXFIBWFJOGPSNBUJPOGSPNUIFTFBáPPSOPSUIPGUIF$BSPMJOBT FTQFDJBMMZGPS/FX:PSL)BSCPS XFGPSNFEBQBSUOFSTIJQXJUIUIF3FOBJT TBODF$PNQVUJOH*OTUJUVUF 3&/$* BUUIF6OJWFSTJUZPG/PSUI$BSPMJOB BOE UPHFUIFS IBWF POF PG UIF NPTU DPNQMFUF EBUBTFUT PG TFB áPPS UZQF XBUFSEFQUIT UPQPHSBQIZ BOEBUNPTQIFSJDDPOEJUJPOTGSPNUIF(VMGPG .FYJDPUP$BOBEB6TJOHUIF$4**)1$$ XFDBONPEFMWVMOFSBCMFBSFBT BMPOHUIFFOUJSF&BTUFSO4FBCPBSE BHBJOBNBTTJWFEBUBTFU
3.3.2 Response to Irene "GUFS )VSSJDBOF *SFOF JO "VHVTU UIF $4* UFBN XBT DPODFSOFE UIBUNBOZQFPQMFXFSFMVMMFEJOUPBGBMTFTFOTFPGTFDVSJUZ#FDBVTFPG UIF FZF USBDL *SFOF XBT NPTUMZ B SBJO FWFOU XJUI MJUUMF XJOE PS TUPSN TVSHF3BJOJOEVDFEáPPEJOH HFOFSBMMZ IBQQFOT TMPXMZ GBTUFS áPPEJOH JTDPOàOFEUPTUSFBNCPUUPNTXIFSFUIF#MVFCFMUDPVMEOPUIBOEMFUIF EPXOQPVS$PODFSOFEUIBUQFPQMFXFSFOPUQSFQBSFEGPSUIFPOSVTIPG B TUPSN TVSHF GSPN UIF TFB XF EFDJEFE UP NPEFM XIBU B TVSHF XPVME MPPLMJLFXJUIBOFZFUSBDLBMJUUMFGBSUIFSOPSUIUIBO*SFOFBOEPOFUIBU PDDVSSFEPOBIJHIUJEF *O +VOF àWF NPOUIT CFGPSF 4BOEZ XF XSPUF #FOJNPGG FUøBM ø UIBUXIJMFNPTUQFPQMFEPOPUUIJOLPG/FX:PSLBTMZJOH XJUIJO UIF IVSSJDBOF CFMU QPXFSGVM TUPSNT IBWF JNQBDUFE PVS DJUZ CFGPSF BOEXFOFFEUPTBGFHVBSEPVSDPNNVOJUJFT*OBEEJUJPOUPZFBST PGCBTJDHFPMPHJDàFMEXPSL XFVTFEEBUBDPMMFDUFEGSPN*SFOFUPNPEFM UIFJNQBDUPGBTUPSNUIBUNJHIUIJUBUIJHIUJEFXJUIBTMJHIUMZEJGGFSFOU USBDLUIBO*SFOFBOEDBMDVMBUFEUIFMJLFMJIPPEPGBNTVSHF8IJMF XFEJEOPUQSFEJDU4BOEZ XFBDDVSBUFMZNPEFMFEBTDFOBSJPWFSZDMPTF UPUIBUPG4BOEZ
3.3.3 Sandy Hindsight Simulation Using ADCIRC 0VS JOJUJBM NPEFM XBT CBTFE PO EBUB GSPN )VSSJDBOF *SFOF VTJOH UIF "EWBODFE$JSDVMBUJPO.PEFM "%$*3$ OVNFSJDBMDPEFBOEZFBSTPG
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.9. Superstorm Sandy maximum wind speed in m/s along actual hurricane track as generated by the CUNY Interdisciplinary High-Performance Computing Center at the College of Staten Island.
àFMEXPSL)PXFWFS GPMMPXJOH4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ XFIBWFUBLFOBDUV BMEBUBGSPNUIFTUPSNBOEFOUFSFEJUJOUPPVSNPEFM 'JHVSFø "T BSFTVMUPGPVSNPEFM XIJDI VTFE IJOETJHIU TJNVMBUJPO XF BSSJWFE BU TVSHF TJNVMBUJPO XJUIJO N PG UIF BDUVBM PCTFSWFE FWFOU JO NBOZ LFZMPDBUJPOT8FBSFDVSSFOUMZSFàOJOHPVSOVNFSJDBMHSJEUPCFUUFSSFQ SFTFOUUPQPHSBQIJDBOECBUIZNFUSJDEFUBJMUPNPSFBDDVSBUFMZTJNVMBUF TUPSN TVSHFT UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF QPUFOUJBM JNQBDU PG GVUVSF TUPSNT PO /FX:PSL)BSCPS 6TJOH B (*4 BOE EBUB GSPN '&." 64(4 /FX :PSL $JUZ BOE /FX:PSL4UBUF XFIBWFBMTPQMPUUFE NBYJNVNTVSHF CVJMEJOH GPPUQSJOUT EBNBHFGSPN4BOEZ XFUMBOET #MVFCFMUESBJOBHF CBTJOT VSCBOJ[BUJPO QBUUFSOT IVSSJDBOF FWBDVBUJPO [POFT ø 4-04) [POFT FMFWBUJPO EBUB '&." áPPE [POFT BOE ø DFOTVT EBUB 5IF SFTVMUT PG UIJT TUVEZ BSF WFSZ VTFGVM JO MFBSOJOH GSPNUIFJNQBDUPG4BOEZ 6TJOH "%$*3$ JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI 3&/$* XF NPEFMFE UIF TUPSN TVSHF "T TIPXO JO 'JHVSFø JO NBOZ LFZ MPDBUJPOT PO UIF
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
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Fig. 3.10. Sandy surge showing good agreement in R – recorded and C – calculated values of surge. Units are meters. The Sandy inundation is shown in blue on Staten Island.
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34
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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Fig. 3.11. 2012 FEMA SLOSH MOMS.
Fig. 3.12. Map showing high-ground parking areas and the six new coastal evacuation zones (NYCOEM).
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future 35
36
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
37
Fig. 3.13. Portion of the narrows NY-NJ quadrangle showing fatalities (circles) from Sandy in this area. As in Figures 3.7 and 3.8 showing the most severe damage, the fatalities follow the old tidal channels shown in Figure 3.3. New Creek Bluebelt lies between 11 and the two clusters of circles of fatalities that lie along the coast immediately to the southeast.
38
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
39
Fig. 3.14. “In case of hurricane storm surge go to high ground” Map. 4PVSDFT/:$1-650 -*0/ 64(4 '&." BOE/:$0&.
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40
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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3
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future Alan I. Benimoff, William J. Fritz and Michael Kress
ABSTRACT 8F IBWF VUJMJ[FE B (*4 (FPHSBQIJD *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFN JO PSEFS UP TUVEZ UIF NBTTJWF QSPQFSUZ MPTT BOE MPTT PG MJGF GSPN 4VQFSTUPSN 4BOEZ 6TJOH BO "EWBODFE $JSDVMBUJPO .PEFM GPS 0DFBOJD $PBTUBM BOE &TUVBSJOFXBUFST "%$*3$ EFWFMPQFEBUUIF3FOBJTTBODF$PNQVUJOH *OTUJUVUF 3&/$* BUUIF6OJWFSTJUZPG/PSUI$BSPMJOBBU$IBQFM)JMM XFNPEFMFEUIFTUPSNTVSHF*ONBOZLFZMPDBUJPOTPOUIFTPVUIFBTUFSO TIPSFPG4UBUFO*TMBOE BHSFFNFOUXBTXJUIJONFUFSTPGUIFIJHI XBUFSNBSLSFDPSEFECZUIF6OJUFE4UBUFT(FPMPHJDBM4VSWFZ"GVSUIFS SFTVMUPGUIJTTUVEZJTBàWFQPJOUQMBO 1SPUFDUUIFFYJTUJOHOBUVSBM CBSSJFSTmUIFCFBDIFTBOEEVOFT CVJMEUIFNIJHIFS SF[POFJO UIFáPPE[POFBOECVZVQBTNBOZQSPQFSUJFTBTQPTTJCMFJOMPXMZJOH BSFBT UVSOJOHUIFNJOUPQBSLMBOE CFWFSZDBSFGVMBCPVUFOHJOFFSJOH TPMVUJPOT TVDI BT TFB CBSSJFST CFDBVTF UIFZ XJMM OPU POMZ CF FYQFOTJWF CVUOFDFTTBSJMZQSPUFDUPOFBSFBBUUIFFYQFOTFPGBOPUIFS QSPWJEF FEVDBUJPOUPSFTJEFOUTPG4UBUFO*TMBOE Keywords: 4VQFSTUPSN 4BOEZ 4UBUFO *TMBOE (FPHSBQIJD *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFN BEWBODFE DJSDVMBUJPO NPEFM GPS PDFBOJD DPBTUBM BOE FTUVBSJOF XBUFST "%$*3$ TUPSNTVSHF
3.1 INTRODUCTION 0O0DUPCFS 4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZJOáJDUFEBEFWBTUBUJOHCMPXUP PVSQPSUJPOPGUIF&BTU$PBTU5IFTUPSNQSPWJEFEBXBLFVQDBMMUP UIFøFOUJSF/FX:PSL.FUSPQPMJUBOBSFBCVUFTQFDJBMMZUP4UBUFO*TMBOE 5IF3PDLBXBZT #SFF[Z1PJOU BOEPUIFSMPXMZJOHDPBTUBMBSFBT"TXF NPWF JOUP UIF GVUVSF BOE GBDF PUIFS QPUFOUJBMMZ DBUBTUSPQIJD XFBUIFS Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801520-9.00003-1 Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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3.1.1 An Active, But Overlooked Storm History 8FSFDFOUMZIFMEBOJOUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZGPSVN IUUQXXXDTJDVOZFEVTBO EZGPSVNOFXTIUNM JOXIJDIXFCSPVHIUUPHFUIFSDPNNVOJUZFYQFSUTUP EFBMXJUIBOVNCFSPGBTQFDUTPGTUPSNTVSHFBOEáPPEJOH*OBEEJUJPOUP UIFHFPMPHJDJTTVFT XFBMTPEFBMUXJUIUPQJDTTVDIBTUIFIVNBOJNQBDU UIFFDPOPNJDBOEQPMJUJDBMBTQFDUT BOEUIFOFFEGPSNPSFFEVDBUJPO 4FWFSF TUPSNT FYUSBUSPQJDBM BOE IVSSJDBOF FYQFSJFODFE JO UIF /FX :PSL)BSCPS"SFBBSFQMPUUFEJOUIFUJNFMJOFTIPXOJO'JHVSFø"UMFBTU PGUIFTFTFWFSFTUPSNTIBWFPDDVSSFEJOUIFQBTUøZFBSTGPSBOBWFSBHF PGPOFTUPSNFWFSZøZFBST*UJTVODMFBSJGUIFTUPSNT QPTU SFQSFTFOU BOJODSFBTFJOGSFRVFODZPSTJNQMZUIFMBDLPGIJTUPSJDBMEBUBJOUIFTFWFO UFFOUIBOEFJHIUFFOUIDFOUVSJFT8FTVHHFTUUIBUUIFUSVFBWFSBHFPGTUPSN TVSHFTJOUIF/FX:PSLBSFBNBZCFTJHOJàDBOUMZMFTTUIBOøZFBST
Fig. 3.1. Hurricane and major storm events affecting the NYC area. 4PVSDFQSF64"SNZ$PSQTPG &OHJOFFST
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
23
*O BIVSSJDBOFPGVOLOPXOTUSFOHUIXJUIB NTVSHF CBTFE POPVSBOBMZTJTPGOFXTQBQFSQIPUPT TUSVDLUIFBSFB BOEJO BO VOOBNFE $BUFHPSZ IVSSJDBOF TPNFUJNFT DBMMFE UIF i-POH *TMBOE &YQSFTTu QSPEVDFE B TVSHF PG BQQSPYJNBUFMZ N 5IFTF TUPSNT GPS UIFø NPTU QBSU XFOU VOOPUJDFE BU MFBTU PO 4UBUFO *TMBOE CFDBVTF UIF TVSHFTáPXFEBDSPTTVOEFWFMPQFENBSTIMBOE 5IFTVNNFSTUPSNPGDBVTFETFWFSFáPPEJOHJOUIF4XFFUCSPPL %SBJOBHF#BTJO #FOJNPGG ø 5IFXJOUFSTUPSNPGSFTVMUFEJO FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH GSPN TUPSN TVSHF 4FWFSF áPPEJOH PDDVSSFE EVSJOH 5SPQJDBM4UPSN'MPZE XIFOøNNPGSBJOGFMM BTSFDPSEFE BUUIF$4*XFBUIFSTUBUJPO5IFIZESPMPHJDSFTQPOTFUP)VSSJDBOF*SFOF XBTFYUFOTJWFáPPEJOHJOUIF3JDINPOEUPXOBSFB XIFSFUIFHBVH JOHTUBUJPO 64(4 BUUIF3JDINPOE$SFFL#MVFCFMU#.1 SFDPSEFE B TUBHF PG ø N JOTUFBE PG UIF OPSNBM TUBHF PG ø N FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH JO UIF 8JMMPXCSPPL BSFB BOE FYUFOTJWF áPPEJOH JO UIF4PVUI .JEMBOE BOE'PY#FBDIBSFBT5IF#MVFCFMUJTBTUPSNXBUFS NBOBHFNFOUTZTUFNEFTJHOFEBOEJNQMFNFOUFECZUIF/FX:PSL$JUZ %FQBSUNFOUPG&OWJSPONFOUBM1SPUFDUJPOUIBUVUJMJ[FTFYJTUJOHTUSFBNT CZJOTUBMMJOH#FTU.BOBHFNFOU1SBDUJDFT #.1T " WJFX PG QBTU "UMBOUJD IVSSJDBOF USBDLT 4DJMFQQJ BOE %POOFMMZ &MTFOFS FUø BM ø TIPXT UIBU NPTU "UMBOUJD IVSSJDBOFT TUBSU PGGøUIFXFTUDPBTUPG"GSJDBUSBWFMJOHXFTUBOEBSFEFáFDUFEQBSBMMFMVQ UIFFBTUDPBTUPGUIF644VQFSTUPSN4BOEZXBTOFBSMZBiDPBTUOPS NBMuIVSSJDBOF BTJUTUSVDLUIF/FX+FSTFZDPBTUXIJMFUSBWFMJOHBUBO BOHMFBMNPTUQFSQFOEJDVMBSUPUIFDPBTUMJOF5IJTXBTEVFUPTFWFSBMGBD UPST POFPGXIJDIXBTBiOFHBUJWFMZUJMUFEUSPVHIu ,JFGGFS ø #MBLF FU BM JO UIF QPMBS KFU TUSFBN UIBU XBT JO DMPTF QSPYJNJUZ UP UIF TVCUSPQJDBMKFUTUSFBN5IFSFXBTBMTPBCMPDLJOHIJHIJOUIFOPSUIUIBU QSFWFOUFE4BOEZGSPNHPJOHPVUUPTFB5IFUSBDLPG4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ JTBOFYDFFEJOHMZSBSFFWFOUBTDBMDVMBUFECZ)BMMBOE4PCFM XJUI B SFUVSO QFSJPE PG ø ZFBST 5IFZ EJE OPU GBDUPS JO UIF TUPSN TVSHF CFDBVTFUIFZJOEJDBUFUIBUTUPSNTVSHFEFQFOETPONBOZGBDUPST5IJT USBDLQVUUIFOPSUIFBTUFSORVBESBOUPGUIFIVSSJDBOFJOUIF/FX:PSL .FUSPQPMJUBO BSFB *O UIBU RVBESBOU UIF GPSXBSE TQFFE BOE UIF XJOE TQFFEBSFBEEJUJWF QSPEVDJOHUIFHSFBUFTUTUPSNTVSHF$PVQMFUIJTXJUI UIF SJHIU BOHMF JO UIF DPBTUMJOF 'JHVSFø BOE JU JT DMFBS UIBU 4UBUFO *TMBOEXBTJOQBSUJDVMBSEBOHFSGSPN4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ
24
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.2. DEM of NYC region showing right angle in coastline. Color scale goes from red (40 m above sea level and higher) to blue (20 m below sea level or lower). Map generated by the CUNY Interdisciplinary HighPerformance Computing Center at the College of Staten Island. #BTF*NBHF5FSSBNFUSJDT 64/BWZ/(" (&#$0 (PPHMF&BSUI
3.2 STORM DYNAMICS, NYC’S UNFORTUNATE LOCATION, AND A DANGEROUSLY SHIFTING LANDSCAPE &WFSZTUPSNJTEJGGFSFOU BTTUSFOHUI FZFUSBDL UJEFT BOEPUIFSXFBUIFS TZTUFNT BSF BMM WBSJBCMF GBDUPST 5IF TVSHF CFHJOT BT B MPXQSFTTVSF CVMHFøJOUIFPDFBOJOUIFFZFPGUIFTUPSN TJNJMBSUPXBUFSSJTJOHJOUP BWBDVVNDMFBOFS 8JOETQJMFXBUFSPOUPQPGUIFCVMHFBOEUIFUJEF UIFOMJGUTUIFXBUFSUPBOFWFOIJHIFSMFWFM5IF/FX:PSLNFUSPQPMJUBO BSFBJTMPDBUFEJOBQBSUJDVMBSMZWVMOFSBCMFBSFB*OGBDU JUJTUIFNPTU EBOHFSPVTQMBDFPOUIF&BTUFSO4FBCPBSE5IFSJHIUBOHMFPGUIFDPBTU MJOF 'JHVSFø
B SFTVMU PG UIF JOUFSTFDUJPO PG UIF /FX +FSTFZ 4IPSF BOE-POH*TMBOE BOEDPVOUFSDMPDLXJTFSPUBUJPO QVTIFTXJOEBOEXBUFS BHBJOTU4UBUFO*TMBOEBOEVQ/FX:PSL)BSCPS5IJTTVSHFXBUFSJTUIFO USBQQFECZXJOETGPSDJOHXBUFSXFTUXBSEBMPOH-POH*TMBOE4PVOE 4UBUFO*TMBOEJTQBSUJDVMBSMZWVMOFSBCMF JOUIJTSFHBSE5IFOBSSPXJOH QBTTBHFDSFBUFECZUIF-POH*TMBOEBOE/FX+FSTFZTIPSFT DPNCJOFE XJUI B TFB áPPS SBNQ UIBU HSPXT JODSFBTJOHMZ TIBMMPX QSFTTVSJ[FT UIF XBUFSBOEBJNTJUBHBJOTUUIF4PVUI4IPSF TJHOJàDBOUMZJODSFBTJOHUIF
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
25
IFJHIUBOEJOUFOTJUZPGUIFTVSHF5XFOUZUISFF4UBUFO*TMBOESFTJEFOUT EJFEBTBSFTVMUPG4BOEZ *ODSFBTJOHTFBMFWFMTPOMZFYBDFSCBUFUIFTVSHF BOEIJHIFSTFBMFWFMT TIPVMEOPXCFDPOTJEFSFEBTUIFOFXOPSNBM'PSUIFQBTUøZFBST UIF TFBMFWFMIBTCFFOJODSFBTJOHBUBCPVUBGPPUQFSDFOUVSZ BOEUIBUSBUF JTMJLFMZUPJODSFBTFQFSIBQTUPBTNVDIBTUXPUPàWFGFFUQFSDFOUVSZ 3BINTUPSG ø 5IFTF FGGFDUT IBWF CFFO IJEEFO CFDBVTF UIF TIPSF IBT CFFO EFWFMPQJOH GBTUFS UIBO UIF TFBMFWFM SJTF HSPXUI XIJDI JT OPU TVTUBJOBCMF BOEFYUSFNFMZEBOHFSPVT 5IF64(4UPQPHSBQIJDNBQPG4UBUFO*TMBOE /: 'JHVSFø TIPXT FYUFOTJWF UJEBM XFUMBOET PO JUT FBTUFSO TIPSF %VSJOH UIJT UJNF
Fig. 3.3. 1902 topographic map of Staten Island, New York from USGS 1902 Topographic Map). Note marshland and tidal channels that were at or below sea level in 1902 along the East Shore of Staten Island when sea level was about a foot lower than today (2014
26
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
UIFTF UJEBM XFUMBOET XFSF BCMF UP BCTPSC UIF XBUFST GSPN IVSSJDBOF TVSHFT#BSSJFSJTMBOET NBSTIFT DPBTUBMEVOFàFMET FTUVBSJFT BOECBZT TFSWFBTOBUVSFTTQPOHFT BCTPSCJOHUIFGPSDFPGBTUPSNTVSHFBOETUPSJOH XBUFS NJUJHBUJOHEBNBHFBOEáPPEJOH"TBSFTVMUPGEFWFMPQNFOU XF IBWFIBSETDBQFEUIFTFTQPOHFT NBLJOHUIFTFBSFBTFYUSFNFMZTVTDFQUJCMF UPáPPEEBNBHF #FOJNPGG
JOIJT(*4TUVEZ SFQPSUFEPOFYUFOTJWFVSCBOJ[B UJPOPGUIF4-04) 4FB-BLFBOE0WFSMBOE4VSHFTGSPN)VSSJDBOFT [POFTEVSJOHUIFQFSJPEPGUISPVHI6TJOHQSF4BOEZ4-04) NPEFM )VSSJDBOF *OVOEBUJPO ;POFT EBUB NBEF BWBJMBCMF CZ UIF /FX :PSL 4UBUF 0GàDF PG &NFSHFODZ .BOBHFNFOU /:40&. BOE iMBOE VTFuEBUBPCUBJOFEGSPNUIF/FX:PSL$JUZ%FQBSUNFOUPG$JUZ1MBO OJOH XF IBWF QMPUUFE 'JHVSFTø m VSCBOJ[BUJPO QBUUFSOT JO UIFTF IVSSJDBOFWVMOFSBCMF [POFT PG 4UBUFO *TMBOE /: )VSSJDBOF TUPSN TVSHF [POFT BSF CBTFE PO /0"" 4-04) NPEFM QSPKFDUJPOT PG WFSUJ DBM TVSHF IFJHIUT BTTPDJBUFE XJUI 4BGàS4JNQTPO4DBMF DBUFHPSZ m TUPSNT /:40&. 0VS(*4BOBMZTJTTIPXTUIFQSPHSFTTJWFVSCBOJ[B
Fig. 3.4. Number of structures vs. year built on Staten Island for SLOSH Zones 1 and 2 from 1900 to 2008. White solid line = SLOSH Zone 1; yellow solid line = SLOSH zone 2; upper dashed line = trendline for SLOSH Zone 1; lower dotted line = trendline for SLOSH Zone 2. Data source: NYC PLUTO.
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
27
Fig. 3.5. GIS map showing east shore of Staten Island. The white squares indicate urbanized blocks and lots prior to 1900 appearing in SLOSH Zone 1.
UJPOJOQSF4BOEZ4-04);POFTBOE8FIBWFHSBQIFEUIFTFSFTVMUT JO'JHVSFø/PUFUIFFYQPOFOUJBMDPOTUSVDUJPOPGTUSVDUVSFTEFTQJUF UIFPDDVSSFODFPGIVSSJDBOFT.BQTQSPEVDFEGSPNUIJTTUVEZ TIPXJOH QSPHSFTTJWFVSCBOJ[BUJPO BSFWFSZVTFGVMJOBOBMZ[JOHUIFEFWFMPQNFOU PG 4-04) [POFT PO 4UBUFO *TMBOE "T B SFTVMU PG 4VQFSTUPSN 4BOEZ '&."IBTSFWJTFEUIF4-04)[POFNBQTBOEUIF/FX:PSL$JUZ0GàDF PG&NFSHFODZ.BOBHFNFOUSFWJTFEJUTFWBDVBUJPO[POFTGSPNUISFF " # BOE$ UPTJY m 5IFEBNBHFQMPUUFEJO'JHVSFTøBOEøJTBSFTVMUPGUIFVSCBO J[BUJPOJOUIFIVSSJDBOF4-04)[POFTBTJOEJDBUFEJO'JHVSFø/PUF UIBU NPTU TFWFSF EBNBHF PDDVSSFE JO PME UJEBM DIBOOFMT BT TIPXO JO 'JHVSFø
28
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.6. GIS map showing east shore of Staten Island. The white squares indicate urbanized parcels of land between the years 1898 and 2008 appearing in SLOSH Zones 1 and 2.
3.3 MODELING THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTORMS, BEFORE AND AFTER SANDY 'PS TFWFSBM ZFBST XF IBWF CFFO XPSLJOH BT QBSU PG BO JOUFSEJTDJQMJO BSZ UFBN VTJOH 5IF $JUZ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /FX :PSLT *OUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZ )JHI1FSGPSNBODF$PNQVUJOH$FOUFS $6/:*)1$$
IPVTFEBUUIF $PMMFHFPG4UBUFO*TMBOE UPNPEFMIPXTUPSNTVSHFTNJHIUJNQBDUUIF /FX:PSLNFUSPQPMJUBOBSFB 0VS$FOUFSIPVTFTUXPPGUIFMBUFTUHFOFSBUJPO$SBZTVQFSDPNQVUFST BOEDPWFSTBMMNPEFSODPNQVUBUJPOBMBSDIJUFDUVSF5IF$6/:*)1$$ DBOIBOEMFNBTTJWFBNPVOUTPGEBUB 0VS DPNQVUJOH QPXFS XBT BMTP VTFE CZ /FX :PSL $JUZ GPS SJTL BOBMZTJTBOETUPSNTVSHFQSFWFOUJPO GPSFYBNQMF "3$"%*4JO.BZPS
Fig. 3.7. FEMA damage assessment for Midland Beach Area. The blue area represents the Sandy inundation (source: FEMA). Note that the most severe damage occurs in old tidal channels shown in Fig. 3.3.
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future 29
Fig. 3.8. FEMA damage assessments for Oakwood Beach, Fox Beach, and New Dorp Beach. The blue area represents Sandy inundation (source: FEMA). As in Fig. 3.7, note that the most severe damage occurs in old tidal channels shown in Fig. 3.3.
30 Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
31
#MPPNCFSHT SFQPSU PO /:$ TQFDJBM JOJUJBUJWF GPS SFCVJMEJOH BOE SFTJMJFODF<+VOF>
3.3.1 Storm-Surge Applications for NYC .BOZUFBNTIBWFNPEFMFEQPUFOUJBMTUPSNTVSHFJNQBDUGSPN/PSUI$BSP MJOBTPVUI)PXFWFS GFXIBWFMPPLFEBUDPOEJUJPOTOPSUIPGUIF$BSPMJOBT #FDBVTFXFIBWFJOGPSNBUJPOGSPNUIFTFBáPPSOPSUIPGUIF$BSPMJOBT FTQFDJBMMZGPS/FX:PSL)BSCPS XFGPSNFEBQBSUOFSTIJQXJUIUIF3FOBJT TBODF$PNQVUJOH*OTUJUVUF 3&/$* BUUIF6OJWFSTJUZPG/PSUI$BSPMJOB BOE UPHFUIFS IBWF POF PG UIF NPTU DPNQMFUF EBUBTFUT PG TFB áPPS UZQF XBUFSEFQUIT UPQPHSBQIZ BOEBUNPTQIFSJDDPOEJUJPOTGSPNUIF(VMGPG .FYJDPUP$BOBEB6TJOHUIF$4**)1$$ XFDBONPEFMWVMOFSBCMFBSFBT BMPOHUIFFOUJSF&BTUFSO4FBCPBSE BHBJOBNBTTJWFEBUBTFU
3.3.2 Response to Irene "GUFS )VSSJDBOF *SFOF JO "VHVTU UIF $4* UFBN XBT DPODFSOFE UIBUNBOZQFPQMFXFSFMVMMFEJOUPBGBMTFTFOTFPGTFDVSJUZ#FDBVTFPG UIF FZF USBDL *SFOF XBT NPTUMZ B SBJO FWFOU XJUI MJUUMF XJOE PS TUPSN TVSHF3BJOJOEVDFEáPPEJOH HFOFSBMMZ IBQQFOT TMPXMZ GBTUFS áPPEJOH JTDPOàOFEUPTUSFBNCPUUPNTXIFSFUIF#MVFCFMUDPVMEOPUIBOEMFUIF EPXOQPVS$PODFSOFEUIBUQFPQMFXFSFOPUQSFQBSFEGPSUIFPOSVTIPG B TUPSN TVSHF GSPN UIF TFB XF EFDJEFE UP NPEFM XIBU B TVSHF XPVME MPPLMJLFXJUIBOFZFUSBDLBMJUUMFGBSUIFSOPSUIUIBO*SFOFBOEPOFUIBU PDDVSSFEPOBIJHIUJEF *O +VOF àWF NPOUIT CFGPSF 4BOEZ XF XSPUF #FOJNPGG FUøBM ø UIBUXIJMFNPTUQFPQMFEPOPUUIJOLPG/FX:PSLBTMZJOH XJUIJO UIF IVSSJDBOF CFMU QPXFSGVM TUPSNT IBWF JNQBDUFE PVS DJUZ CFGPSF BOEXFOFFEUPTBGFHVBSEPVSDPNNVOJUJFT*OBEEJUJPOUPZFBST PGCBTJDHFPMPHJDàFMEXPSL XFVTFEEBUBDPMMFDUFEGSPN*SFOFUPNPEFM UIFJNQBDUPGBTUPSNUIBUNJHIUIJUBUIJHIUJEFXJUIBTMJHIUMZEJGGFSFOU USBDLUIBO*SFOFBOEDBMDVMBUFEUIFMJLFMJIPPEPGBNTVSHF8IJMF XFEJEOPUQSFEJDU4BOEZ XFBDDVSBUFMZNPEFMFEBTDFOBSJPWFSZDMPTF UPUIBUPG4BOEZ
3.3.3 Sandy Hindsight Simulation Using ADCIRC 0VS JOJUJBM NPEFM XBT CBTFE PO EBUB GSPN )VSSJDBOF *SFOF VTJOH UIF "EWBODFE$JSDVMBUJPO.PEFM "%$*3$ OVNFSJDBMDPEFBOEZFBSTPG
32
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
Fig. 3.9. Superstorm Sandy maximum wind speed in m/s along actual hurricane track as generated by the CUNY Interdisciplinary High-Performance Computing Center at the College of Staten Island.
àFMEXPSL)PXFWFS GPMMPXJOH4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ XFIBWFUBLFOBDUV BMEBUBGSPNUIFTUPSNBOEFOUFSFEJUJOUPPVSNPEFM 'JHVSFø "T BSFTVMUPGPVSNPEFM XIJDI VTFE IJOETJHIU TJNVMBUJPO XF BSSJWFE BU TVSHF TJNVMBUJPO XJUIJO N PG UIF BDUVBM PCTFSWFE FWFOU JO NBOZ LFZMPDBUJPOT8FBSFDVSSFOUMZSFàOJOHPVSOVNFSJDBMHSJEUPCFUUFSSFQ SFTFOUUPQPHSBQIJDBOECBUIZNFUSJDEFUBJMUPNPSFBDDVSBUFMZTJNVMBUF TUPSN TVSHFT UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF QPUFOUJBM JNQBDU PG GVUVSF TUPSNT PO /FX:PSL)BSCPS 6TJOH B (*4 BOE EBUB GSPN '&." 64(4 /FX :PSL $JUZ BOE /FX:PSL4UBUF XFIBWFBMTPQMPUUFE NBYJNVNTVSHF CVJMEJOH GPPUQSJOUT EBNBHFGSPN4BOEZ XFUMBOET #MVFCFMUESBJOBHF CBTJOT VSCBOJ[BUJPO QBUUFSOT IVSSJDBOF FWBDVBUJPO [POFT ø 4-04) [POFT FMFWBUJPO EBUB '&." áPPE [POFT BOE ø DFOTVT EBUB 5IF SFTVMUT PG UIJT TUVEZ BSF WFSZ VTFGVM JO MFBSOJOH GSPNUIFJNQBDUPG4BOEZ 6TJOH "%$*3$ JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI 3&/$* XF NPEFMFE UIF TUPSN TVSHF "T TIPXO JO 'JHVSFø JO NBOZ LFZ MPDBUJPOT PO UIF
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
33
Fig. 3.10. Sandy surge showing good agreement in R – recorded and C – calculated values of surge. Units are meters. The Sandy inundation is shown in blue on Staten Island.
TPVUIFBTUFSOTIPSFPG4UBUFO*TMBOE BHSFFNFOUXBTXJUIJONPGUIF IJHIXBUFSNBSLSFDPSEFECZUIF64(48FOPXQMBOUPVTFUIJTSFàOFE NPEFM UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF FGGFDUJWFOFTT PG WBSJPVT áPPENJUJHBUJPO TUSBUFHJFT JODMVEJOHBSUJàDJBMMFWFFTBOECJPFOHJOFFSFETUSVDUVSFT
3.3.4 Potential for Real-time Prediction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
34
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
3.4 EVACUATION PROCEDURES 5IF NBYJNVN PG UIF NBYJNVN FOWFMPQF PG IJHI XBUFS .&08 PS .0.QSPWJEFTBXPSTUDBTFTOBQTIPUGPSBQBSUJDVMBSTUPSNDBUFHPSZ VOEFSiQFSGFDUuTUPSNDPOEJUJPOT5IF.0.TBSFBMTPVTFEUPEFWFMPQ UIFOBUJPOTFWBDVBUJPO[POFT TPVSDF'&."
3.5 RISK AND RESILIENCE $PBTUBM [POF SFTJEFOUT PO 4UBUFO *TMBOE BSF BU UIF IJHIFTU SJTL PG CFJOHBGGFDUFECZTUPSNTVSHFJOVOEBUJPO5IF/FX:PSL$JUZ0GàDFPG &NFSHFODZ.BOBHFNFOU /:$0&. IBTSFESBXOJUTFWBDVBUJPO[POF NBQ 'JHVSFø 5IJTNBQTIPXTUIBUJUJTQPTTJCMFUPIBWFBO&WBDVB UJPO;POFBEKBDFOUUPBO&WBDVBUJPO;POFCFDBVTFPGEJGGFSFODFTJO UPQPHSBQIZ"TBGVSUIFSSFTVMUPG4VQFSTUPSN4BOEZ '&."IBTJTTVFE OFX4-04).0.NBQT 'JHVSFTøBOEø
Fig. 3.11. 2012 FEMA SLOSH MOMS.
Fig. 3.12. Map showing high-ground parking areas and the six new coastal evacuation zones (NYCOEM).
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future 35
36
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
0ODFFWBDVBUJPOPSEFSTBSFJTTVFE JUJTJNQPSUBOUGPSDPBTUBMSFTJEFOUT UP TFFL IJHI HSPVOE 8F IBWF EFMJOFBUFE TFWFSBM IJHIHSPVOE QBSLJOH BSFBTUIBUDPVMECFVTFECZ4UBUFO*TMBOEDPBTUBMSFTJEFOUT#BTFEPOQBTU IVSSJDBOFT UIFTUPSNTVSHFJTVTVBMMZHPOFXJUIJOøEBZPGJUTQFBL )PXPOFSFTQPOETUPBIVSSJDBOFFWBDVBUJPOPSEFSJTBNBUUFSPGIPX UIBUQFSTPOQFSDFJWFTUIFPSEFS &MTFOFSBOE,BSB ø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ø /PUF UIF QSPYJNJUZ PG GBUBMJUJFTUPUIFTUSFBNJOUIF/FX$SFFL#MVFCFMU /:$%&1 "MTP OPUFUIFQBVDJUZPGDPOUPVSMJOFT8FIZQPUIFTJ[FUIBUUIFTUPSNTVSHF DBNFVQ/FX$SFFLBOEJOVOEBUFEUIJTBSFB5IF#MVFCFMUTUSFBNTXFSF UIFSFUPESBJOTUPSNXBUFSGSPNUIJTMPXMZJOHBSFB
3.6 A FIVEPOINT PLAN FOR THE FUTURE *OUIJTDIBQUFS XFIBWFBUUFNQUFEUPTIPXUIBUUIF/FX:PSL.FUSPQPMJ UBO BSFB JT WFSZ WVMOFSBCMF UP IVSSJDBOFT BOE USPQJDBM TUPSNT JO QBSU CFDBVTFPGUIFVOJRVFHFPNFUSZPGUIFDPBTUMJOF8IJMFUSPQJDBMTUPSNT NBLFJUUIJTGBSOPSUIMFTTGSFRVFOUMZUIBOBSFBTPGUIFDPBTUMJOFGVSUIFS TPVUI UIPTFUIBUEPDBOIBWFBEFWBTUBUJOHJNQBDUPOUIJTIJHIMZQPQV MBUFEBSFB4BOEZXBTBSFMBUJWFMZNJOPSFWFOUXJUIBNTUPSNTVSHF )PXFWFS UIFSFJTTDJFOUJàDTQFDVMBUJPOUIBUUIFBSFBDPVMEFODPVOUFSTVSHFT PG BOE QFSIBQT FWFO N JG XF XFSF UP CF IJU XJUI B DBUFHPSZ PS IJHIFSTUPSNXJUIUIFSJHIUDPNCJOBUJPOPGUJEFT XJOET BOEFZFUSBDL 6OGPSUVOBUFMZ NBOZ DPBTUBM BSFBT UISPVHIPVU /FX :PSL )BSCPS IBWF CFFO iIBSETDBQFEu PME NBSTIFT UJEBM DIBOOFMT BOE EVOF àFMET IBWFHJWFOXBZUPVSCBOJ[BUJPO#FDBVTFPGUIFJOUFOTFEFWFMPQNFOUJO UIFMPXMZJOHBSFBTPG4UBUFO*TMBOEBOEPUIFSBSFBTUISPVHIPVUUIFDJUZ QSPUFDUJPOBOENJUJHBUJPOTPMVUJPOTBSFWFSZEJGGFSFOUGSPNDPBTUBMBSFBT
Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
37
Fig. 3.13. Portion of the narrows NY-NJ quadrangle showing fatalities (circles) from Sandy in this area. As in Figures 3.7 and 3.8 showing the most severe damage, the fatalities follow the old tidal channels shown in Figure 3.3. New Creek Bluebelt lies between 11 and the two clusters of circles of fatalities that lie along the coast immediately to the southeast.
38
Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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Superstorm Sandy and Staten Island: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
39
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Learning from the Impacts of Superstorm Sandy
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