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The Indian parliamentary election of 1991
Efectoral
S#udies (1991),
10~4, 353-356
Notes on Recent Elections The Indian Parliamentary Election of 1991 PRATEEK JAL%N Trinity College, Cambridge CB2 1TQ England
The Indian parliamentary election of 1991 marked the end of the shortest lived Lok Sabha-the Lower House of Parliament-m the country’s history. It also marked the failure of India’s second experiment with non-Congress government in the 44 years since her independence. The last election, in November 1989, brought to power a minority coalition government led by V.P. Singh’s Janata Dal. His government was supported both by the right wing Hindu revivalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a coalition of left wing parties. Within one year, the BJP (with 86 members in the 542 strong Lok Sabha) withdrew its support and the government fell. V.P. Singh’s Janata Dal broke the Janata Dal (Socialist), later the up and a faction of less than 60 MPs -called Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP)-formed a caretaker government. This government was led by the disgruntled anti-V.P. Singb leader, Chandrashekhar, and Singh’s onetime Deputy, Devi Lal. The Chandrashekhar government was supported in Parliament by Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress Party. As expected, this unviable arrangement did not work and after three months Rajiv Gandhi withdrew support to the government and the Lok Sabha was dissolved. Fresh elections were scheduled for 20, 24 and 26 May 1991. (The sheer size of India necessitates that elections be spread over two or three days in order to ensure adequate deployment of poll personnel.) Polling took place as scheduled in 200 seats on 20 May. Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination on 21 May, however, rocked the nation and the Election Commission postponed the remainder of the polling to 12 and 15 June. The basic choice before the Indian electorate, which at over 500 million is the largest in the world, was a three-way one. The fact that non-Congress parties were not able to fight unitedly is significant. In 1977 and 1989, the only two occasions when Congress has not been able to form the government, the opposition had provided a united front. On all other occasions, a divided opposition ensured that, although the Congress never had 50 per cent of the popular vote, it had a majority of the seats in Parliament. The Congress which had ruled in India for all but five years of post-independence history fought this election on the ‘stability’ platform-that they alone could provide a stable government. However, the Party has always revolved around personalities and, except for some brief interludes, always one of the Nehru-Gandhi family. With the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, it found itself at sea. In a rather messy 0261-3794191/04/0353-04/$03.00
@
1991 Butterworth-Heinemann
354
The Indian
of 1991
Election
sequence of events, it invited the assassinated leader’s politically inexperienced widow, Italian born Sonia Gandhi to be its next President; an invitation which she flatly and repeatedly lieutenant honest
declined.
of the Gandhis,
and balanced,
The
Congress
P.V. Narasimha
Rao’s greatest
disadvantages
that his health was so bad that he had opted also regarded
as being
indecisive
Congress
wave which
swept
opted
for an old and trusted widely
perceived
to be
were that he lacked charisma
out of this election
although
1991 surprised observers. After campaign emphasis from stability
then
Rao. Although
and
altogether.
He was
in June
and July
his initial performance
Rajiv Gandhi’s death, the Congress shifted its to sympathy and hoped for a recurrence of the
India in 1984,
following
Indira Gandhi’s
assassination.
The second alternative was the BJP. The BJP had increased its strength in Parliament from 2 seats in 1984 to 86 in 1989. It, over the last few years, has emerged Moderate
as a potential ruling factions of the party,
emphasized
that
party largely due including its most
the
party
minorities’.
However,
more
aimed
Rashtra’-a
Hindu nation in which
only
extreme
to its Hindu fundamentalism. prominent leader, L.K. Advani
at ending
factions
minorities
the
‘politics
of the party
of pacifying
clamour
the
for a ‘Hindu
may live only on the majority’s
terms.
The BJP’s attitude was symbolized by its active support to the building of a Hindu temple at a site presently occupied by a mosque in the northern city of Ayodhya, which mythology dictates The National Front-Left coalition Finance
of four Minister.
implementing
is the birthplace Front alliance
of the God Rama. was the third possibility.
The
parties led by V.P. Sir@, who was at one time Rajiv The National Front espoused the cause of the lower
the ten-year
old report
of a Commission
which
NF is a Gandhi’s caste by
recommended
the
reservation of over 50 per cent of government jobs for backward castes. This plank of ‘social justice’ had led to vociferous protests, particularly amongst students, in August-September
1990
and was now the major
thrust
of the NF. It fought
this
election in alliance with the coalition of nominally Communist and leftist parties which are popular in some states, particularly West Bengal and Kerala. It is noteworthy that the ruling party at the time of the election, Chandrashekhar’s SJP, was not even perceived as having a chance of victory. While these were the only potential ruling parties, the Indian election be seen
as a simple
three-way
race.
Regional
parties,
other small parties did contribute to the total of 8,360 the 507 constituencies which went to the polls.
independent candidates
may not
candidates
and
who contested
The Campaign Western observers are often startled by the nature of the issues that dominate elections in India. Most elections in the West are fought on the basis of prices, social services, taxes, education and the right-left polarization. Of these, only intlation provides an important issue in India. With the rise of right wing BJP, it is possible that future elections will also feature the right-left (or, at least, the right-centre) divide. However, with a population half of which is illiterate, three-fourths rural and four-fifths poor, democracy in India is an experiment unparalleled elsewhere in the world; a candidate’s caste, religion and domicile are more important than his economic philosophy or the number of university degrees he possesses. This does not, however, mean that the average voter is a disinterested or uninformed
participant
in the democratic
process.
Most observers
find that, even
PRATEEKJAIAN
355
in remote villages with little or no access to independent sources of information, the voter is not indi@erent between candidates but makes a choice that reflects a genuine judgement on them. The 1991 election was marred by many incidents of violence and disorder. While the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in Sriperumbedur had the greatest effect on this election, other incidents were perhaps more directly related to the electoral process. For example, a number of candidates were shot in Punjab in a determined effort to have election cancelled in that state. The Election Commission finally postponed the Punjab election on the day before the polling was scheduled, after the violence and bloodshed had already occurred. Elsewhere violence or the death of candidates led to the countermanding of 12 contests. In spite of this, the fact that polling occurred reasonably peacefully in most constituencies and power has been smoothly transferred to a new government seems to indicate that Indian democracy has weathered this storm, that the ballot has won this round of its battle with the bullet. The Election Commission, a hitherto low-key body which oversees all Indian elections, played a much more controversial role in 1991 than ever before. Headed by T.N. Seshan, a former Cabinet Secretary distrusted by non-Congress parties, it took decisions which were criticized as arbitrary and were widely seen as being favourable to the Congress party. Seshan proved to be the most high profile Chief Election Commissioner India has ever had; he toured the country extensively and issued controversial diktats to state governments as well as to his own officials.
The Results As the results poured in on 16 and 17 June, it became clear that the Congress would not win a clear majority. In the final analysis, they secured 225 seats, and even with the 11 seats of their Tamil Nadu allies, the ADMK, they were still left with a hung Parliament. As the largest single party, however, it fell upon Congress to form a government. There ensued, within the party, a struggle for a leadership which showed somewhat embarrassingly that the Congress without Rajiv Gandhi was unable to identify a leader. The contest was chiefly between P.V. Narasimha Rao and Sharad Pawar, the Chief Minister of Maharashtra State. Some party workers did apparently try to rope Sonia Gandhi into accepting the Prime Ministership, but she refused. After much behind the scenes politicking, the Congress avoided an election for leadership. Narasimha Rao was appointed leader ‘by consensus’. Sharad Pawar was persuaded to join the Cabinet and was given the high profile Defence portfolio. The election results themselves show, for the ftrst time, a sharply federal nature of the Indian nation. Hitherto, particular regions, rather than individual states, seemed to vote in a similar pattern. This time, however, different states showed different trends. This indicates that the important issues in 1991 may have been more local than before. It was believed until this election that no party could form a government in India without the support of the two largest States-Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With a total of 138 seats in a 542-member House, it was unlikely that a party would form a majority without the backing of this belt. However, in 1991 the Congress won only 5 seats from these two States, 4 in U.P. and 1 in Bihar, and yet formed the government.
The Indian Election of 1991
356
TABLE1. Election results Votes Congress
Janata Dal’ Telegu Desam ’ Congress(S)’ DMK’
BJP
CPI (M) CPI ADMK’ Other/Ind Total
1989
40.3 18.3 3.4 0.3 2.4 11.8 6.5 2.7
1991
Seats
Votes
Seats
193
36.4
141 2 1 -
11.5
225 55 13 1 -
86 32
20.3
-
3.0 0.4
1.6 12.7
47
6.3 2.5 1.7 17.9
100.0
525
100.0
12
11
119 35 13
11
35 507
1. These parties formed the National Front. 2. The ADMK, a Tamil Nadu party, supports the Congress.
As the second
and third phases of voting, unlike the first, occurred
after the death
of Rajiv Gandhi, it is possible to analyse whether the assassination had an effect on the results. While the pre-assassination voting indicated a swing of 5.7 per cent against towards
Congress, Congress.
the post-assassination
voting
resulted
In some states, the improvement
in a 1.6 per
for Congress
cent
between
swing the two
phases seems to have been triggered off by an increase in turnout as well as by a switch of non-Congress voters to Congress. However, in the case of Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, it is clear that a significant minds following the assassination.
number
of voters
did change
their
As expected, opposition disunity helped Congress. Despite a drop of about 3 per cent in its popular vote between 1989 and 1991, the Congress was able to gain about 30 seats. The Index of Opposition Unity, at 66, was about than in 1989 and this translated into the 30 seat gain for which
11 points lower Congress would
normally need approximately a 1.5 per cent swing in its favour. The BJP has emerged as a major national party with an increase in its popular vote, from 12 per cent to 20 per cent and from 86 to 119 seats. It came out ahead in all but two of the Hindi-speaking states. The increase in the BJP votes is partly attributable to the fact that the BJP contested 460 seats in 1991 as opposed to 220 seats in 1989. The BJP’s impressive result marks it out clearly as the Congress’ main rival for the top spot in Indian politics. This conclusion is supported by the Janata Dal’s poor showing. Its overall vote percentage declined from 18 per cent to 11 per cent and its strength in Parliament from over 130 to 55. It only won seats in IJ.P., Bihar and Orissa and was forced into closer alliance with the Bengal-dominated Left Front.
Chandrashekhar’s
SJP paled
into insignificance
with only
3 per cent
of
the popular vote and 5 seats in the House. With the formation of the third minority government in India in as many years, the country could wonder whether the politics of coalitions had come to stay.
S#udies (1991),
10~4, 353-356
Notes on Recent Elections The Indian Parliamentary Election of 1991 PRATEEK JAL%N Trinity College, Cambridge CB2 1TQ England
The Indian parliamentary election of 1991 marked the end of the shortest lived Lok Sabha-the Lower House of Parliament-m the country’s history. It also marked the failure of India’s second experiment with non-Congress government in the 44 years since her independence. The last election, in November 1989, brought to power a minority coalition government led by V.P. Singh’s Janata Dal. His government was supported both by the right wing Hindu revivalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a coalition of left wing parties. Within one year, the BJP (with 86 members in the 542 strong Lok Sabha) withdrew its support and the government fell. V.P. Singh’s Janata Dal broke the Janata Dal (Socialist), later the up and a faction of less than 60 MPs -called Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP)-formed a caretaker government. This government was led by the disgruntled anti-V.P. Singb leader, Chandrashekhar, and Singh’s onetime Deputy, Devi Lal. The Chandrashekhar government was supported in Parliament by Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress Party. As expected, this unviable arrangement did not work and after three months Rajiv Gandhi withdrew support to the government and the Lok Sabha was dissolved. Fresh elections were scheduled for 20, 24 and 26 May 1991. (The sheer size of India necessitates that elections be spread over two or three days in order to ensure adequate deployment of poll personnel.) Polling took place as scheduled in 200 seats on 20 May. Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination on 21 May, however, rocked the nation and the Election Commission postponed the remainder of the polling to 12 and 15 June. The basic choice before the Indian electorate, which at over 500 million is the largest in the world, was a three-way one. The fact that non-Congress parties were not able to fight unitedly is significant. In 1977 and 1989, the only two occasions when Congress has not been able to form the government, the opposition had provided a united front. On all other occasions, a divided opposition ensured that, although the Congress never had 50 per cent of the popular vote, it had a majority of the seats in Parliament. The Congress which had ruled in India for all but five years of post-independence history fought this election on the ‘stability’ platform-that they alone could provide a stable government. However, the Party has always revolved around personalities and, except for some brief interludes, always one of the Nehru-Gandhi family. With the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, it found itself at sea. In a rather messy 0261-3794191/04/0353-04/$03.00
@
1991 Butterworth-Heinemann
354
The Indian
of 1991
Election
sequence of events, it invited the assassinated leader’s politically inexperienced widow, Italian born Sonia Gandhi to be its next President; an invitation which she flatly and repeatedly lieutenant honest
declined.
of the Gandhis,
and balanced,
The
Congress
P.V. Narasimha
Rao’s greatest
disadvantages
that his health was so bad that he had opted also regarded
as being
indecisive
Congress
wave which
swept
opted
for an old and trusted widely
perceived
to be
were that he lacked charisma
out of this election
although
1991 surprised observers. After campaign emphasis from stability
then
Rao. Although
and
altogether.
He was
in June
and July
his initial performance
Rajiv Gandhi’s death, the Congress shifted its to sympathy and hoped for a recurrence of the
India in 1984,
following
Indira Gandhi’s
assassination.
The second alternative was the BJP. The BJP had increased its strength in Parliament from 2 seats in 1984 to 86 in 1989. It, over the last few years, has emerged Moderate
as a potential ruling factions of the party,
emphasized
that
party largely due including its most
the
party
minorities’.
However,
more
aimed
Rashtra’-a
Hindu nation in which
only
extreme
to its Hindu fundamentalism. prominent leader, L.K. Advani
at ending
factions
minorities
the
‘politics
of the party
of pacifying
clamour
the
for a ‘Hindu
may live only on the majority’s
terms.
The BJP’s attitude was symbolized by its active support to the building of a Hindu temple at a site presently occupied by a mosque in the northern city of Ayodhya, which mythology dictates The National Front-Left coalition Finance
of four Minister.
implementing
is the birthplace Front alliance
of the God Rama. was the third possibility.
The
parties led by V.P. Sir@, who was at one time Rajiv The National Front espoused the cause of the lower
the ten-year
old report
of a Commission
which
NF is a Gandhi’s caste by
recommended
the
reservation of over 50 per cent of government jobs for backward castes. This plank of ‘social justice’ had led to vociferous protests, particularly amongst students, in August-September
1990
and was now the major
thrust
of the NF. It fought
this
election in alliance with the coalition of nominally Communist and leftist parties which are popular in some states, particularly West Bengal and Kerala. It is noteworthy that the ruling party at the time of the election, Chandrashekhar’s SJP, was not even perceived as having a chance of victory. While these were the only potential ruling parties, the Indian election be seen
as a simple
three-way
race.
Regional
parties,
other small parties did contribute to the total of 8,360 the 507 constituencies which went to the polls.
independent candidates
may not
candidates
and
who contested
The Campaign Western observers are often startled by the nature of the issues that dominate elections in India. Most elections in the West are fought on the basis of prices, social services, taxes, education and the right-left polarization. Of these, only intlation provides an important issue in India. With the rise of right wing BJP, it is possible that future elections will also feature the right-left (or, at least, the right-centre) divide. However, with a population half of which is illiterate, three-fourths rural and four-fifths poor, democracy in India is an experiment unparalleled elsewhere in the world; a candidate’s caste, religion and domicile are more important than his economic philosophy or the number of university degrees he possesses. This does not, however, mean that the average voter is a disinterested or uninformed
participant
in the democratic
process.
Most observers
find that, even
PRATEEKJAIAN
355
in remote villages with little or no access to independent sources of information, the voter is not indi@erent between candidates but makes a choice that reflects a genuine judgement on them. The 1991 election was marred by many incidents of violence and disorder. While the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in Sriperumbedur had the greatest effect on this election, other incidents were perhaps more directly related to the electoral process. For example, a number of candidates were shot in Punjab in a determined effort to have election cancelled in that state. The Election Commission finally postponed the Punjab election on the day before the polling was scheduled, after the violence and bloodshed had already occurred. Elsewhere violence or the death of candidates led to the countermanding of 12 contests. In spite of this, the fact that polling occurred reasonably peacefully in most constituencies and power has been smoothly transferred to a new government seems to indicate that Indian democracy has weathered this storm, that the ballot has won this round of its battle with the bullet. The Election Commission, a hitherto low-key body which oversees all Indian elections, played a much more controversial role in 1991 than ever before. Headed by T.N. Seshan, a former Cabinet Secretary distrusted by non-Congress parties, it took decisions which were criticized as arbitrary and were widely seen as being favourable to the Congress party. Seshan proved to be the most high profile Chief Election Commissioner India has ever had; he toured the country extensively and issued controversial diktats to state governments as well as to his own officials.
The Results As the results poured in on 16 and 17 June, it became clear that the Congress would not win a clear majority. In the final analysis, they secured 225 seats, and even with the 11 seats of their Tamil Nadu allies, the ADMK, they were still left with a hung Parliament. As the largest single party, however, it fell upon Congress to form a government. There ensued, within the party, a struggle for a leadership which showed somewhat embarrassingly that the Congress without Rajiv Gandhi was unable to identify a leader. The contest was chiefly between P.V. Narasimha Rao and Sharad Pawar, the Chief Minister of Maharashtra State. Some party workers did apparently try to rope Sonia Gandhi into accepting the Prime Ministership, but she refused. After much behind the scenes politicking, the Congress avoided an election for leadership. Narasimha Rao was appointed leader ‘by consensus’. Sharad Pawar was persuaded to join the Cabinet and was given the high profile Defence portfolio. The election results themselves show, for the ftrst time, a sharply federal nature of the Indian nation. Hitherto, particular regions, rather than individual states, seemed to vote in a similar pattern. This time, however, different states showed different trends. This indicates that the important issues in 1991 may have been more local than before. It was believed until this election that no party could form a government in India without the support of the two largest States-Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With a total of 138 seats in a 542-member House, it was unlikely that a party would form a majority without the backing of this belt. However, in 1991 the Congress won only 5 seats from these two States, 4 in U.P. and 1 in Bihar, and yet formed the government.
The Indian Election of 1991
356
TABLE1. Election results Votes Congress
Janata Dal’ Telegu Desam ’ Congress(S)’ DMK’
BJP
CPI (M) CPI ADMK’ Other/Ind Total
1989
40.3 18.3 3.4 0.3 2.4 11.8 6.5 2.7
1991
Seats
Votes
Seats
193
36.4
141 2 1 -
11.5
225 55 13 1 -
86 32
20.3
-
3.0 0.4
1.6 12.7
47
6.3 2.5 1.7 17.9
100.0
525
100.0
12
11
119 35 13
11
35 507
1. These parties formed the National Front. 2. The ADMK, a Tamil Nadu party, supports the Congress.
As the second
and third phases of voting, unlike the first, occurred
after the death
of Rajiv Gandhi, it is possible to analyse whether the assassination had an effect on the results. While the pre-assassination voting indicated a swing of 5.7 per cent against towards
Congress, Congress.
the post-assassination
voting
resulted
In some states, the improvement
in a 1.6 per
for Congress
cent
between
swing the two
phases seems to have been triggered off by an increase in turnout as well as by a switch of non-Congress voters to Congress. However, in the case of Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, it is clear that a significant minds following the assassination.
number
of voters
did change
their
As expected, opposition disunity helped Congress. Despite a drop of about 3 per cent in its popular vote between 1989 and 1991, the Congress was able to gain about 30 seats. The Index of Opposition Unity, at 66, was about than in 1989 and this translated into the 30 seat gain for which
11 points lower Congress would
normally need approximately a 1.5 per cent swing in its favour. The BJP has emerged as a major national party with an increase in its popular vote, from 12 per cent to 20 per cent and from 86 to 119 seats. It came out ahead in all but two of the Hindi-speaking states. The increase in the BJP votes is partly attributable to the fact that the BJP contested 460 seats in 1991 as opposed to 220 seats in 1989. The BJP’s impressive result marks it out clearly as the Congress’ main rival for the top spot in Indian politics. This conclusion is supported by the Janata Dal’s poor showing. Its overall vote percentage declined from 18 per cent to 11 per cent and its strength in Parliament from over 130 to 55. It only won seats in IJ.P., Bihar and Orissa and was forced into closer alliance with the Bengal-dominated Left Front.
Chandrashekhar’s
SJP paled
into insignificance
with only
3 per cent
of
the popular vote and 5 seats in the House. With the formation of the third minority government in India in as many years, the country could wonder whether the politics of coalitions had come to stay.