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The National Propensity to Cycle Tool
A. Macmillan, J. Woodcock / Journal of Transport & Health 3 (2016) S4–S61
S51
A76 The National Propensity to Cycle Tool James Woodcock 1, Rachel Aldred 2, Anna Goodman 3, Ali Abbas 1, Robin Lovelace 4 1
University of Cambridge, United Kingdom University of Westminster, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 3 LSHTM, United Kingdom 4 University of Leeds, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 2
Abstract: Encouraging cycling, as part of a wider sustainable mobility strategy, is an increasingly common objective in transport planning institutions worldwide. Emerging evidence shows that providing appropriate high quality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. To maximize the benefits and cost-effectiveness of new infrastructure, it is important to build in the right places. Cycle paths, for example, will have the greatest impact if they are constructed along ‘desire lines’ of greatest latent demand. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) seeks to inform such decisions by providing an evidence-based support tool that models current and potential future distributions and volumes of cycling across cities and regions. The model is freely available online and can be accessed at geo8.webarch.net/master/. The PCT's open source approach allows it to be deployed in new cities and countries. The PCT is funded by the Department for Transport for England. It has been user tested with national and regional transport planners in England. In this talk we will present the process the PCT and discuss how it is being used in transport planning. The PCT represents current cycling and cycling potential based on origin-destination (OD) data from the England 2011 Census. Cycling potential is modelled as a function of route distance, hilliness and other factors at the OD and area level. Multiple scenarios have been generated and interactively displayed. These are: ‘Government Target’, in which the rate of cycling doubles in England; ‘Gender Equality’, in which women cycle as much as men; ‘Go Dutch’, in which English people have the same propensity to cycle as people in the Netherlands; and ‘E-bikes’, in which the distance people are willing to cycle is increased. Data on how distance affects propensity for e-bikes is taken from the Netherlands. The PCT presents data on the health benefits of increasing cycling (using the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment of Transport approach), benefits for climate and congestion are assessed by presenting how many trips would previously have been by private car. In this talk, the tool will be presented and lessons learned from the user testing will be discussed. The potential generalisability to other countries planning for cycling-dominated cities will be discussed. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2016.05.107
SOT-18 Cycling Infrastructure A77 Is Building Bicycling Infrastructure a Path Towards Zero Vision for Traffic Fatality? Hamed Ahangari, Norman Garrick, Carol Atkinson-Palombo University of Connecticut, CT, USA
Abstract Background: Transportation planners in the United States have directed a lot of effort towards promoting biking for urban transportation by implementing on-street bike facilities and bike share programs. For this reason, bike commuting has increased in many American cities representing one of the most significant changes in commuting patterns that has occurred in the past decade. The most dramatic changes have been limited to just six cities where the percentage of bike commuting has achieved critical mass by passing a threshold of 3 percent. Previous studies have used cross-sectional data to show that cities with this level of biking have lower traffic fatality rates for all users due to a safer street environment. Methods: In this paper, we use data for the 50 most populous American cities from 2000 to 2013 to examine the relationship between traffic safety and bike commuting over time. For this purpose, we employed panel data models which considers variations in time and location. Results: The results revealed a significant inverse relationship between bike share and the road fatality rate after controlling for other variables including vehicle miles travelled (VMT), motorization level and socioeconomic factors. The elasticity analysis indicates that a 10 percent increase in bike-share resulted in a 7.5 percent reduction in road fatalities. Conclusions: Our study, which is the first to examine this phenomenon from a temporal perspective, confirms that cities that moved into the high biking category have also exhibited a significant improvement in road safety. This, taken together with earlier studies, suggest that efforts made to attract more bikers also lead to safer road conditions for all road users. In particular, one study has shown that only small fraction of the general population will ride where there are no dedicated bike facilities. However, as cities improve their biking
S51
A76 The National Propensity to Cycle Tool James Woodcock 1, Rachel Aldred 2, Anna Goodman 3, Ali Abbas 1, Robin Lovelace 4 1
University of Cambridge, United Kingdom University of Westminster, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 3 LSHTM, United Kingdom 4 University of Leeds, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 2
Abstract: Encouraging cycling, as part of a wider sustainable mobility strategy, is an increasingly common objective in transport planning institutions worldwide. Emerging evidence shows that providing appropriate high quality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. To maximize the benefits and cost-effectiveness of new infrastructure, it is important to build in the right places. Cycle paths, for example, will have the greatest impact if they are constructed along ‘desire lines’ of greatest latent demand. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) seeks to inform such decisions by providing an evidence-based support tool that models current and potential future distributions and volumes of cycling across cities and regions. The model is freely available online and can be accessed at geo8.webarch.net/master/. The PCT's open source approach allows it to be deployed in new cities and countries. The PCT is funded by the Department for Transport for England. It has been user tested with national and regional transport planners in England. In this talk we will present the process the PCT and discuss how it is being used in transport planning. The PCT represents current cycling and cycling potential based on origin-destination (OD) data from the England 2011 Census. Cycling potential is modelled as a function of route distance, hilliness and other factors at the OD and area level. Multiple scenarios have been generated and interactively displayed. These are: ‘Government Target’, in which the rate of cycling doubles in England; ‘Gender Equality’, in which women cycle as much as men; ‘Go Dutch’, in which English people have the same propensity to cycle as people in the Netherlands; and ‘E-bikes’, in which the distance people are willing to cycle is increased. Data on how distance affects propensity for e-bikes is taken from the Netherlands. The PCT presents data on the health benefits of increasing cycling (using the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment of Transport approach), benefits for climate and congestion are assessed by presenting how many trips would previously have been by private car. In this talk, the tool will be presented and lessons learned from the user testing will be discussed. The potential generalisability to other countries planning for cycling-dominated cities will be discussed. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2016.05.107
SOT-18 Cycling Infrastructure A77 Is Building Bicycling Infrastructure a Path Towards Zero Vision for Traffic Fatality? Hamed Ahangari, Norman Garrick, Carol Atkinson-Palombo University of Connecticut, CT, USA
Abstract Background: Transportation planners in the United States have directed a lot of effort towards promoting biking for urban transportation by implementing on-street bike facilities and bike share programs. For this reason, bike commuting has increased in many American cities representing one of the most significant changes in commuting patterns that has occurred in the past decade. The most dramatic changes have been limited to just six cities where the percentage of bike commuting has achieved critical mass by passing a threshold of 3 percent. Previous studies have used cross-sectional data to show that cities with this level of biking have lower traffic fatality rates for all users due to a safer street environment. Methods: In this paper, we use data for the 50 most populous American cities from 2000 to 2013 to examine the relationship between traffic safety and bike commuting over time. For this purpose, we employed panel data models which considers variations in time and location. Results: The results revealed a significant inverse relationship between bike share and the road fatality rate after controlling for other variables including vehicle miles travelled (VMT), motorization level and socioeconomic factors. The elasticity analysis indicates that a 10 percent increase in bike-share resulted in a 7.5 percent reduction in road fatalities. Conclusions: Our study, which is the first to examine this phenomenon from a temporal perspective, confirms that cities that moved into the high biking category have also exhibited a significant improvement in road safety. This, taken together with earlier studies, suggest that efforts made to attract more bikers also lead to safer road conditions for all road users. In particular, one study has shown that only small fraction of the general population will ride where there are no dedicated bike facilities. However, as cities improve their biking