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The October 1994 elections in Botswana
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The October 1994 Elections in Botswana* JOHN A WISEMAN
University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Department of Politics, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK ROGER CHARLTON
Department of Social Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow G40BA, UK
F o l l o w i n g the c o u p d ' e t a t in T h e G a m b i a in July 1994 B o t s w a n a i n h e r i t e d the distinction o f b e c o m i n g the l o n g e s t surviving e x a m p l e o f multi-party d e m o c r a c y in Africa. T h e 1994 e l e c t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d the sixth o c c a s i o n since i n d e p e n d e n c e in 1966 that Batswana h a d g o n e to the polls to elect t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from a range of c o m p e t i n g political parties. Since i n d e p e n d e n c e B o t s w a n a has also r e c o r d e d t h e fastest rate of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a m o n g the w o r l d ' s states, a l l o w i n g it to p r o g r e s s rapidly from its initial situation as o n e of t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s a n y w h e r e and to a c h i e v e ' u p p e r m i d d l e i n c o m e ' status as d e f i n e d by t h e W o r l d Bank. In part this r e m a r k a b l e e c o n o m i c success, s o m e t i m e s t e r m e d miraculous, is to b e e x p l a i n e d b y the d e v e l o p m e n t of d i a m o n d m i n i n g in t h e p e r i o d since t h e d i s c o v e r y of the first massive d i a m o n d p i p e b e n e a t h the Kalahari Desert in 1967. H o w e v e r , it is also i m p o r t a n t to stress t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s to d e v e l o p m e n t m a d e b y the o p e r a t i o n o f an efficient and, d e s p i t e a f e w r e c e n t blemishes, essentially n o n - c o r r u p t state structure and t h e s o u n d p o l i c y c h o i c e s m a d e by an astute political leadership: e c o n o m i c s u c c e s s is d u e to a c o m b i n a t i o n o f g o o d luck and g o o d m a n a g e m e n t . A l t h o u g h the p r e c i s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t and c o n t i n u i n g d e m o c r a c y is c o m p l e x , it is r e a s o n a b l e to regard t h e m as mutually s u p p o r t i v e to date. H o w e v e r , t h e r e c e n t e l e c t i o n was h e l d in a m a r k e d l y less b u o y a n t e c o n o m i c climate than p r e v i o u s contests, w i t h rising u r b a n u n e m p l o y m e n t u n d e r l i n i n g the stark fact that B o t s w a n a ' s e c o n o m i c miracle years are p r o b a b l y n o w over.
Electoral Arrangements O n t h e 15 O c t o b e r t h e B o t s w a n a e l e c t o r a t e w a s c h o o s i n g its p a r l i a m e n t a r y representatives, its local g o v e r n m e n t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s and, indirectly, its President. Elections to the National A s s e m b l y are b a s e d on 40 p a r l i a m e n t a r y c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . This n u m b e r r e p r e s e n t e d an i n c r e a s e o f six since the 1989 e l e c t i o n and r e f l e c t e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h (to 1,326,796) and relocation, n o t a b l y i n c r e a s i n g urbanisation, *The authors gratefully acknowledge the continuing support, both professional and personal, for their Botswana research provided by Professor Keshav Sharma, Head of the Department of Political and Administrative Studies, University of Botswana. Specific thanks are due to Mr Martin Dyble, Central Statistics Office, Government of Botswana, for documentary assistance. Roger Charlton acknowledges the financial assistance of the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland and Glasgow Caledonian University for field research undertaken in 1993 and 1994.
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r e v e a l e d by t h e 1991 p o p u l a t i o n census. As in t h e past a simple plurality (first-pastthe-post) system w a s in o p e r a t i o n . In o n e c o n s t i t u e n c y , Thamaga, t h e parliamentary e l e c t i o n w a s p o s t p o n e d d u e to the d e a t h o f o n e o f the c a n d i d a t e s just b e f o r e polling day a n d w a s h e l d t h e f o l l o w i n g m o n t h . MI c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w e r e c o n t e s t e d b y m o r e than o n e c a n d i d a t e a n d m o s t h a d t h r e e o r four. At the s a m e time and p l a c e v o t e r s w e r e c h o o s i n g t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o n o n e of nine District Councils (rural) or five T o w n Councils (urban). T h e P r e s i d e n t is e l e c t e d b y the National Assembly, w i t h p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e s r e q u i r e d to indicate w h i c h p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e t h e y will s u p p o r t at t h e t i m e of n o m i n a t i o n . This p r o c e d u r e has always o p e r a t e d along p a r t y political lines. C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e p a r l i a m e n t a r y e l e c t i o n b e c o m e s , in effect, an i n d i r e c t p r e s i d e n t i a l election. Presidential c a n d i d a t e s m a y also stand as p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e s b u t t h e y do n o t have to and w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d to resign t h e i r p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats on b e i n g e l e c t e d President. P a r l i a m e n t a r y and p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e s m u s t b e citizens, a g e d o v e r 21, o f s o u n d mind, and able to s p e a k a n d read English well e n o u g h to take part in National A s s e m b l y d e b a t e s , w h i c h are officially c o n d u c t e d in b o t h Setswana and English. Council c a n d i d a t e s m u s t p o s s e s s t h e same qualifications b u t do n o t n e e d profic i e n c y in English. T h e traditional chiefs are d e b a r r e d from p a r t y politics b u t sit in an u p p e r house, t h e H o u s e of Chiefs, w h i c h has largely advisory p o w e r s . On e l e c t i o n day v o t e r s p r o c e e d to t h e i r local polling station (1,611 w e r e established in 1994) a n d are r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e t h e i r v o t e r registration c a r d and national identity card. Having satisfied the p r e s i d i n g officer o f e n t i t l e m e n t to v o t e the v o t e r has h i s / h e r t h u m b i m m e r s e d in indelible ink (to p r e v e n t a n y o n e v o t i n g m o r e than o n c e ) a n d is p r o v i d e d w i t h a ballot e n v e l o p e and a n u m b e r of c o l o u r e d discs ( e a c h p a r t y has an official c o l o u r and so t h e n u m b e r of discs p r o v i d e d is d e p e n d e n t on the n u m b e r of p a r t i e s c o n t e s t i n g t h e p a r t i c u l a r c o n s t i t u e n c y ) . T h e v o t e r t h e n e n t e r s the s e c r e c y o f t h e p o l l i n g b o o t h , m a k e s a c h o i c e by p l a c i n g o n e disc in the ballot e n v e l o p e , p u t s the o t h e r discs in a d i s c a r d b o x p r o v i d e d , and t h e n leaves t h e polling b o o t h to p l a c e t h e i r e n v e l o p e in the ballot box. Special arrangem e n t s are m a d e for b l i n d o r p h y s i c a l l y h a n d i c a p p e d voters. The use o f c o l o u r e d discs r a t h e r than ballot p a p e r s is d e s i g n e d to h e l p illiterate voters. A l t h o u g h literacy rates in B o t s w a n a are m u c h h i g h e r t h a n average for Africa, t h e r e are still a significant n u m b e r o f illiterate voters, e s p e c i a l l y in t h e rural areas and a m o n g the older generation. A l t h o u g h e l e c t i o n s in B o t s w a n a are n o t h i t c h - f r e e - - i n his r e c e n t official r e p o r t the S u p e r v i s o r o f Elections refers to "cases w h e r e r e g i s t r a t i o n c a r d s w e r e e a t e n up by g o a t s a n d h u n g r y c o w s ' - - t h e y have g e n e r a l l y b e e n w e l l a n d fairly c o n d u c t e d . T h e Elections Office p r o d u c e s a n d w i d e l y d i s t r i b u t e s a b o o k l e t o f o v e r o n e h u n d r e d p a g e s (half in English a n d half in S e t s w a n a ) w h i c h d e s c r i b e s in s i m p l e t e r m s t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e elections, h o w to register, w h a t to do on p o l l i n g day, and gives details o f all the c o m p e t i n g parties, t h e i r s y m b o l s a n d colours, a n d t h e i r leaders. The Parties Over the three decades since independence, Botswana may be most accurately c a t e g o r i s e d as a d o m i n a n t - p a r t y system. A l t h o u g h w e s u g g e s t b e l o w that t h e 1994 results m a y r e q u i r e s o m e q u a l i f i c a t i o n o f this c a t e g o r i s a t i o n it r e m a i n s t h e c a s e that, at t h e n a t i o n a l level, t h e s a m e p a r t y has c o m f o r t a b l y w o n e v e r y e l e c t i o n
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s i n c e t h e p r e - i n d e p e n d e n c e e l e c t i o n s o f 1965. T h e B o t s w a n a D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y ( B D P ) - - i n i t i a l l y l e d b y Sir S e r e t s e K h a m a a n d f o l l o w i n g t h e l a t t e r ' s d e a t h in 1980 b y his c l o s e f r i e n d Sir Q u e t t K e t u m i l e M a s i r e - - h a s m a i n t a i n e d a h e a l t h y parliam e n t a r y m a j o r i t y , p r e v i o u s l y a l w a y s w i n n i n g b e t w e e n 65 a n d 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e v o t e s a n d b e t w e e n 75 a n d 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e seats. U p to a n d i n c l u d i n g t h e 1994 c o n t e s t it r e m a i n s t h e o n l y p a r t y w i t h a t r u l y n a t i o n a l s u p p o r t base, g a i n i n g s i g n i f i c a n t n u m b e r s o f v o t e s e v e n in c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w h i c h it fails to w i n . T h e BDP is t h e b e s t o r g a n i s e d a n d b e s t f i n a n c e d o f t h e p a r t i e s a n d has b e n e f i t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f c o n t i n u e d i n c u m b e n c y . It has a l w a y s m a i n t a i n e d a h i g h level o f p a r t y u n i t y and, d e s p i t e t h e fact t h a t in r e c e n t y e a r s it has b e c o m e i m p o s s i b l e to h i d e t h e g r o w i n g f a c t i o n a l i s m w i t h i n t h e p a r t y , it has so far a v o i d e d t h e s o r t o f splits a n d d e f e c t i o n s w h i c h c a n easily d a m a g e e l e c t o r a l p r o s p e c t s . Until r e c e n t l y p a r t y l e a d e r s also e n j o y e d a r e p u t a t i o n for m o r a l r e c t i t u d e a n d p o l i t i c a l p r o b i t y . H o w e v e r , this w a s d e n t e d in 1992 w h e n t w o s e n i o r g o v e r n m e n t figures, i n c l u d i n g t h e V i c e - P r e s i d e n t , w e r e c o m p e l l e d to r e s i g n f o l l o w i n g a l l e g a t i o n s o f c o r r u p t i o n . This w a s f o l l o w e d b y f u r t h e r s c a n d a l s that i m p l i c a t e d , d i r e c t l y a n d i n d i r e c t l y , m a n y s e n i o r BDP p o l i t i c i a n s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e w a s n o s e r i o u s p r o s p e c t o f e l e c t o r a l d e f e a t for t h e BDP in 1994, t h e p a r t y e n t e r e d t h e e l e c t i o n l o o k i n g b o t h less m o n o l i t h i c a n d less i n v i n c i b l e t h a n in t h e past. Eight o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s c o n t e s t e d the 1994 elections. Of t h e s e o n l y o n e c o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d a serious c o n t e n d e r for p o w e r at the national level whilst t w o o t h e r s p o s e d s o m e t h r e a t to the BDP in p a r t i c u l a r regions. The B o t s w a n a National Front (BNF), w h i c h was f o u n d e d in 1966, has e m e r g e d o v e r t h e past 15 years o r so as the p a r t y m o s t likely to t h r e a t e n BDP d o m i n a n c e . Since its f o r m a t i o n the BNF has s t r u g g l e d to i n c o r p o r a t e a diverse range o f interests a n d g r o u p i n g s i n c l u d i n g minority (i.e. n o n - T s w a n a ) e t h n i c groups, radical intellectuals, dissatisfied traditional leaders, and quasi-proletarian u r b a n e l e m e n t s , w i t h the b a l a n c e of p o w e r w i t h i n the p a r t y u n d e r g o i n g shifts from o n e c o m p o n e n t g r o u p i n g to a n o t h e r o v e r time. More than a n y t h i n g it can b e seen as an organisational vehicle for t h o s e o p p o s e d to t h e ruling p a r t y a n d g o v e r n m e n t . Its i n s t r u m e n t a l coalitional n a t u r e has, h o w e v e r , left it p e r e n i a l l y v u l n e r a b l e to d e f e c t i o n s a n d t h e f o r m a t i o n o f b r e a k a w a y parties. Moreover, its p e r s i s t e n t factionalism has often b l u n t e d its e l e c t o r a l a p p e a l as intra-party s q u a b b l e s a n d p e r s o n a l i t y clashes have p r e o c c u p i e d its l e a d e r s h i p at crucial times. T h e only o t h e r parties w i t h significant s u p p o r t w e r e t h e I n d e p e n d e n c e F r e e d o m Party (IFP, a s o m e w h a t u n f o r t u n a t e a c r o n y m in t h e S o u t h e r n African c o n t e x t ) w i t h its regional base in the N o r t h W e s t a n d t h e B o t s w a n a P e o p l e ' s Party (BPP) w i t h a similar regional base in the N o r t h East. In the past t h e s e t w o p a r t i e s have m a n a g e d to w i n a tiny n u m b e r o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats (the IFP u n d e r its p r e v i o u s title t h e B o t s w a n a I n d e p e n d e n c e P a r t y - - B I P ) b u t are n o w c o n f i n e d to limited electoral success at the level o f c o u n c i l elections. T h e r e m a i n i n g five parties in t h e e l e c t i o n w e r e mainly BNF splinters o f n o real significance: t h e B o t s w a n a Labour Party (BLP), for e x a m p l e , fielded just o n e p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e w h o r e c e i v e d 23 votes. O n l y t h r e e parties, BDP, BNF, and BPP, n o m i n a t e d c a n d i d a t e s for t h e p r e s i d e n c y . In t h e p a r l i a m e n t a r y c o n t e s t t h e BDP n o m i n a t e d c a n d i d a t e s in all 40 c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , the BNF in 39, t h e BPP in 11, t h e IFP in 9, w h i l s t the o t h e r s h a d f o u r o r less candidates. C a n d i d a t e n u m b e r s in t h e local g o v e r n m e n t e l e c t i o n s w e r e BDP 405, BNF 345, BPP 56, IFP 55, w i t h t h e v e r y m i n o r parties all fielding far fewer.
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Campaigns T h e p r o c e s s a n d t i m e t a b l e o f e l e c t i o n c a m p a i g n i n g in B o t s w a n a follows a familiar a n d largely p r e d i c t a b l e pattern, c u l m i n a t i n g in, b u t n o t r e s t r i c t e d to, an official c a m p a i g n p e r i o d o f m o r e than a m o n t h that formally o p e n s w h e n p a r l i a m e n t is dissolved. This e v e n t u s h e r s in a time o f intensive p a r t y activity, c h a r a c t e r i s e d by an i n c r e a s e d f r e q u e n c y o f large-scale political rallies, featuring the a p p e a r a n c e of p a r t y leaders a n d o t h e r s e n i o r figures alongside local candidates. T h e s e m e e t i n g s are still c o m m o n l y r e f e r r e d to in B o t s w a n a by their p r e - i n d e p e n d e n c e title of ' F r e e d o m Squares': a t e r m that w a s itself b o r r o w e d from earlier, and n o w long d i s c a r d e d , South African usage. This official c a m p a i g n p e r i o d also sees the c o m m e n c e m e n t o f d i r e c t ' h o u s e - t o - h o u s e ' c a m p a i g n i n g , particularly in u r b a n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ; a p r a c t i c e u n i q u e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the BNF up to t h e mid-1980s but s u b s e q u e n t l y c o p i e d b y t h e others. H o w e v e r , the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e timing o f B o t s w a n a ' s electoral c o n t e s t s m e a n s that, in p r a c t i c e , p a r t y c a m p a i g n i n g , albeit less intensively, takes p l a c e o v e r a m u c h l o n g e r p e r i o d than the f e w w e e k s leading u p to polling day. This is particularly true for the ruling BDP, w h i c h p r o g r e s s i v e l y allows electoral priorities to s h a p e its b e h a v i o u r and activities o v e r m u c h o f a t w o y e a r p e r i o d leading u p to e a c h election. O v e r this p e r i o d t h e BDP g o v e r n m e n t , r a t h e r unsubtly, but so far effectively, increases p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e , particularly in t h e rural areas that form its electoral heartland. Additionally, p a r t y leaders, i n c l u d i n g the President, always a tireless c a m p a i g n e r , t o u r t h e c o u n t r y and r e m i n d the e l e c t o r a t e of t h e d e v e l o p m e n t a l benefits to B o t s w a n a and to individual Batswana that BDP rule has b r o u g h t . As the e l e c t i o n a p p r o a c h e s the p a c e of c a m p a i g n i n g increases, a l t h o u g h in rural c o n s t i t u e n c i e s in p a r t i c u l a r - - w h e r e the p r e s e n c e o f t h e BDP is g e n e r a l l y m u c h m o r e m a r k e d t h a n that of its o p p o s i t i o n - - i t s form often d o e s n o t vary greatly from w h a t is colloquially k n o w n as the 'Kgotla circuit'. This d e n o t e s the system w h e r e b y s e n i o r ruling p a r t y figures, on a regular basis, c o n s t a n t l y r e i n f o r c e t h e i r m e s s a g e o f stability, d e v e l o p m e n t and c o n s e r v a t i v e c h a n g e u n d e r the BDP at i n n u m e r a b l e village meetings. In u r b a n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s t h e r e is certainly m o r e o f a distinctive c a m p a i g n p e r i o d , and s o m e t i m e s a distinctive c a m p a i g n a t m o s p h e r e . Nevertheless, t h e effects o f c a m p a i g n i n g on the e l e c t o r a t e are n e v e r as m a r k e d as p o l i t i c i a n activity, w h i c h is often feverish, and k e e n m e d i a interest m i g h t indicate, and this c o n t r a s t was p e r h a p s the m o s t distinctive feature of t h e 1994 c a m p a i g n . Q u i t e simply, a p a t h y , a l w a y s an u n d e r l y i n g f e a t u r e o f B o t s w a n a ' s politics, w a s m o r e n o t i c e a b l e t h a n usual d u r i n g t h e r e c e n t c a m p a i g n . T h e r e w e r e a n u m b e r o f r e a s o n s for this situation, s o m e familiar a n d s o m e s p e c i f i c to t h e 1994 c o n t e s t . In the first p l a c e t h e f o c u s o n e l e c t o r a l issues o v e r several m o n t h s p r i o r to the poll t e n d s to b e self-defeating. Specifically, t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y d e s p e r a t e a t t e m p t s by t h e Office o f E l e c t i o n s o v e r t h e s u m m e r o f 1994 to r e g i s t e r a r e s p e c t a b l e p r o p o r tion o f t h e v o t i n g age p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d o n l y to u n d e r l i n e u r b a n d i s i n t e r e s t in p a r t i c u l a r . Similarly, t h e e x t e n t o f factional strife in b o t h t h e m a j o r p a r t i e s w a s c o n s t a n t l y u n d e r l i n e d o v e r t h e s u m m e r b y t h e e x t e n s i v e p u b l i c i t y g i v e n to personally acrimonious primary election contests; intra-party contests which c o m p l e t e l y o v e r s h a d o w e d l e a d e r s h i p a t t e m p t s to f o c u s a t t e n t i o n on p a r t y m a n i f e s t o e s a n d p o l i c i e s . P r i m a r i e s are t h e s y s t e m o f c a n d i d a t e s e l e c t i o n f o l l o w e d b y b o t h t h e m a j o r parties, a n d o n e that h a d c o n t r a s t e d a u n i t e d BDP to a d i s u n i t e d o p p o s i t i o n at e v e r y p r e v i o u s e l e c t i o n . Finally, t h e d e c i s i o n b y t h e BDP to, essen-
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tially, s u r r e n d e r the u r b a n areas to the BNF, largely leaving u r b a n c a m p a i g n i n g to its candidates, r a t h e r t h a n relying o n mass rallies a n d its 'big n a m e s ' to press h o m e its m e s s a g e s of c o m p e t e n c e a n d c o n t i n u i t y . This m e a n t that the c a m p a i g n itself t e n d e d to be trivialised as i n d i v i d u a l c a n d i d a t e s a t t a c k e d each o t h e r in a series of p e r s o n a l i s e d , c o n s t i t u e n c y - s p e c i f i c c a m p a i g n c o n t e s t s that often b o r e little r e l a t i o n s h i p to e i t h e r party p l a t f o r m s or the e c o n o m i c p r o b l e m s facing the country.
Results From the p o i n t of v i e w of the Supervisor of Elections the t u r n o u t in 1994 was a highly respectable 76.6 p e r c e n t w h i c h was eight p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s u p o n the most r e c e n t election of 1989. However, the Supervisor had reason to b e d i s a p p o i n t e d over the p r o p o r t i o n of citizens of voting age w h o registered to vote in 1994. In 1989, 72 p e r c e n t of the estimated voting age g r o u p w e r e registered b u t in 1994 this fell to 62 p e r cent. Similarly, b o t h of the major parties had good reason to be at o n c e pleased and d i s a p p o i n t e d with the results. The BDP w o n 26 parliamentary seats w i t h 54.43 p e r c e n t of the votes (and s u b s e q u e n t l y also w o n the delayed election in Thamaga). This r e p r e s e n t s b o t h a comfortable victory a n d the worst ever electoral p e r f o r m a n c e for the party, w h i c h has n o w lost almost 14 p e r c e n t of its vote over the last two elections. A m o n g s t the defeated BDP candidates w e r e three senior c a b i n e t ministers, Archie Mogwe (Mineral Resources a n d W a t e r Afairs), K e b a t h l a m a n g Morake (Agriculture) a n d Ray Molomo (Education). Whilst the strtlcture of the BDP s u p p o r t base, with its heavy reliance o n p r e d o m i n a n t l y rural voters and its near total d o m i n a n c e of Central District (still m u c h the most p o p u l o u s District a n d the original base of Seretse Khama), r e m a i n s substantially intact it is n o w almost e v e r y w h e r e subject to erosion. If this erosion w e r e to c o n t i n u e at the p r e s e n t rate it can be a s s u m e d that the BDP's electoral f o u n d a t i o n s will c r u m b l e s o o n e r rather t h a n later (see table o n page 350). The major beneficiaries of this e r o s i o n w e r e the BNF. In 1994 the BNF w o n 13 seats w i t h 37.07 p e r c e n t of the vote. This was a significant a d v a n c e o n the 1984 result w h e n the party w o n 4 seats with 20.4 p e r c e n t of the vote and o n 1989 w h e n it w o n 3 scats w i t h 26.95 per cent. In the u r b a n areas it was the BNF w h i c h e m e r g e d as the d o m i n a n t party: in the capital, G a b o r o n e , it w o n all four of the p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats a n d 24 out of 25 seats o n the T o w n Council. Similar d o m i n a n c e of t o w n c o u n c i l s by the BNF o c c u r r e d in Lobatse (10 out of 11 seats), Selebi P h i k w e (all 13 scats), a n d J w a n e n g (all 7 seats) a n d the party w o n all of the parliam e n t a r y seats in the c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . Apart from d o m i n a t i n g the u r b a n areas the BNF w o n six scats in rural c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . In addition to this there w e r e four c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ( M a u n / C h o b e , North East, N g w a k e t s e West, F r a n c i s t o w n East) in w h i c h the c o m b i n e d o p p o s i t i o n vote e x c e e d e d that of the BDP w i n n e r . N o n e of the o t h e r o p p o s i t i o n parties w o n any p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats. The BPP a n d the IFP did achieve significant r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o n a c o u p l e of local c o u n c i l s in their h e a r t l a n d areas but, o n the basis of these results, c a n n o t be regarded as significant n a t i o n a l parties. T h e m i n o r o p p o s i t i o n parties w e r e of little m o r e t h a n n u i s a n c e value b u t they w e r e m u c h m o r e of a n u i s a n c e to the BNF t h a n to the BDP. A l t h o u g h this was clearly the best ever result for the BNF, the party still paid a price for o p p o s i t i o n f r a g m e n t a t i o n a n d for the failure to capitalise fully o n the p r o b l e m s of the BDP.
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Conclusions T h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f t h e Batswana in r u n n i n g a sixth c o n s e c u t i v e free, fair, d e m o c ratic, and p e a c e f u l e l e c t i o n in the post-colonial p e r i o d has to be r e c o g n i s e d a n d a p p r e c i a t e d in its o w n right and as a k e y e l e m e n t in, and i n d i c a t o r of, the g e n e r a l r e c o r d o f p e a c e a n d p r o g r e s s w h i c h m a r k s out B o t s w a n a from so m a n y o t h e r African states. N o n e t h e l e s s , the results of t h e 1994 c o n t e s t d o suggest that s o m e qualification o f t h e d o m i n a n t - p a r t y m o d e l is n e c e s s a r y to e n c a p s u l a t e the d e m o n strated s t r e n g t h of o p p o s i t i o n and t h e i n c r e a s e d c o m p l e x i t y of t h e electoral situation. To d e s c r i b e a ruling p a r t y w h i c h can w i n only just o v e r half o f t h e national v o t e as d o m i n a n t m i g h t a p p e a r to b e flattering, particularly w h e n that p a r t y ' s vote fell by 10 p e r c e n t and that o f its main rival rose by a c o m p a r a b l e amount. At a local level, for e x a m p l e in G a b o r o n e , the label o f d o m i n a n t - p a r t y n o w a p p e a r s m o r e a p p l i c a b l e to t h e BNF t h a n t h e BDP. Nationally, t h e o u t c o m e suggests the distinct possibility that the BDP c o u l d lose p o w e r in 1999.
Estonian Parliamentary Elections, March 1995 REIN TAAGEPERA
University of California, Irvine, CA 92717, USA, and Tartu University, EE-2400 Tartu, Estonia
On
20
September
1992
Estonia h e l d
its first p o s t - o c c u p a t i o n
e l e c t i o n s for
Riigikogu ( p a r l i a m e n t ) a n d p r e s i d e n t . O n 5 March 1995 Riigikogu e l e c t i o n again t o o k place, as p l a n n e d , a n d shifted p o w e r from t h e right t o w a r d t h e center. An e t h n i c Russian p a r t y w o n seats, w h i c h h e l p s alleviate e t h n i c stress. T h e largely s y m b o l i c a l p r e s i d e n t will b e e l e c t e d in 1 9 9 6 - - b y Riigikogu (unless t h e C o n s t i t u t i o n is a m e n d e d ) .
Electoral System To allocate the 101 Riigikogu seats, Estonia m i x e s Finland, G e r m a n y , a n d u n i q u e divisors. It starts w i t h Finnish-type 'quasi-list' PR (for t e r m i n o l o g y see T a a g e p e r a and Shugart, 1989) in l l districts w i t h m a g n i t u d e s ranging from 7 to 12, for an average o f 9.2. (In 1992 t h e r e w e r e 12 districts, m a g n i t u d e s 5 to 13, average 8.4.) Voters w r i t e o n e individual c a n d i d a t e ' s n u m b e r o n t h e ballot; t h e y p r e s u m a b l y are a w a r e o f h e r list affiliation. C a n d i d a t e s w h o r e c e i v e a full s i m p l e q u o t a are ' p e r s o n ally e l e c t e d ' . T h e r e m a i n d e r s are a d d e d b y p a r t y ( o r alliance) lists, and if full q u o t a s materialize, t h e t o p vote-getters o n t h e list r e c e i v e 'district seats'. T h e seats for list r e m a i n d e r s (fractions o f quotas), h o w e v e r , are n o t a l l o c a t e d in districts. Unlike Finland, t h e y are a l l o c a t e d o n t h e basis of n a t i o n w i d e c l o s e d lists. As in G e r m a n y , allocation is c o m p e n s a t o r y , so as to r e s t o r e n a t i o n w i d e PR, s u b j e c t to a 5 p e r c e n t
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The October 1994 Elections in Botswana* JOHN A WISEMAN
University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Department of Politics, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK ROGER CHARLTON
Department of Social Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow G40BA, UK
F o l l o w i n g the c o u p d ' e t a t in T h e G a m b i a in July 1994 B o t s w a n a i n h e r i t e d the distinction o f b e c o m i n g the l o n g e s t surviving e x a m p l e o f multi-party d e m o c r a c y in Africa. T h e 1994 e l e c t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d the sixth o c c a s i o n since i n d e p e n d e n c e in 1966 that Batswana h a d g o n e to the polls to elect t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from a range of c o m p e t i n g political parties. Since i n d e p e n d e n c e B o t s w a n a has also r e c o r d e d t h e fastest rate of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a m o n g the w o r l d ' s states, a l l o w i n g it to p r o g r e s s rapidly from its initial situation as o n e of t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s a n y w h e r e and to a c h i e v e ' u p p e r m i d d l e i n c o m e ' status as d e f i n e d by t h e W o r l d Bank. In part this r e m a r k a b l e e c o n o m i c success, s o m e t i m e s t e r m e d miraculous, is to b e e x p l a i n e d b y the d e v e l o p m e n t of d i a m o n d m i n i n g in t h e p e r i o d since t h e d i s c o v e r y of the first massive d i a m o n d p i p e b e n e a t h the Kalahari Desert in 1967. H o w e v e r , it is also i m p o r t a n t to stress t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s to d e v e l o p m e n t m a d e b y the o p e r a t i o n o f an efficient and, d e s p i t e a f e w r e c e n t blemishes, essentially n o n - c o r r u p t state structure and t h e s o u n d p o l i c y c h o i c e s m a d e by an astute political leadership: e c o n o m i c s u c c e s s is d u e to a c o m b i n a t i o n o f g o o d luck and g o o d m a n a g e m e n t . A l t h o u g h the p r e c i s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t and c o n t i n u i n g d e m o c r a c y is c o m p l e x , it is r e a s o n a b l e to regard t h e m as mutually s u p p o r t i v e to date. H o w e v e r , t h e r e c e n t e l e c t i o n was h e l d in a m a r k e d l y less b u o y a n t e c o n o m i c climate than p r e v i o u s contests, w i t h rising u r b a n u n e m p l o y m e n t u n d e r l i n i n g the stark fact that B o t s w a n a ' s e c o n o m i c miracle years are p r o b a b l y n o w over.
Electoral Arrangements O n t h e 15 O c t o b e r t h e B o t s w a n a e l e c t o r a t e w a s c h o o s i n g its p a r l i a m e n t a r y representatives, its local g o v e r n m e n t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s and, indirectly, its President. Elections to the National A s s e m b l y are b a s e d on 40 p a r l i a m e n t a r y c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . This n u m b e r r e p r e s e n t e d an i n c r e a s e o f six since the 1989 e l e c t i o n and r e f l e c t e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h (to 1,326,796) and relocation, n o t a b l y i n c r e a s i n g urbanisation, *The authors gratefully acknowledge the continuing support, both professional and personal, for their Botswana research provided by Professor Keshav Sharma, Head of the Department of Political and Administrative Studies, University of Botswana. Specific thanks are due to Mr Martin Dyble, Central Statistics Office, Government of Botswana, for documentary assistance. Roger Charlton acknowledges the financial assistance of the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland and Glasgow Caledonian University for field research undertaken in 1993 and 1994.
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r e v e a l e d by t h e 1991 p o p u l a t i o n census. As in t h e past a simple plurality (first-pastthe-post) system w a s in o p e r a t i o n . In o n e c o n s t i t u e n c y , Thamaga, t h e parliamentary e l e c t i o n w a s p o s t p o n e d d u e to the d e a t h o f o n e o f the c a n d i d a t e s just b e f o r e polling day a n d w a s h e l d t h e f o l l o w i n g m o n t h . MI c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w e r e c o n t e s t e d b y m o r e than o n e c a n d i d a t e a n d m o s t h a d t h r e e o r four. At the s a m e time and p l a c e v o t e r s w e r e c h o o s i n g t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o n o n e of nine District Councils (rural) or five T o w n Councils (urban). T h e P r e s i d e n t is e l e c t e d b y the National Assembly, w i t h p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e s r e q u i r e d to indicate w h i c h p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e t h e y will s u p p o r t at t h e t i m e of n o m i n a t i o n . This p r o c e d u r e has always o p e r a t e d along p a r t y political lines. C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e p a r l i a m e n t a r y e l e c t i o n b e c o m e s , in effect, an i n d i r e c t p r e s i d e n t i a l election. Presidential c a n d i d a t e s m a y also stand as p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e s b u t t h e y do n o t have to and w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d to resign t h e i r p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats on b e i n g e l e c t e d President. P a r l i a m e n t a r y and p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e s m u s t b e citizens, a g e d o v e r 21, o f s o u n d mind, and able to s p e a k a n d read English well e n o u g h to take part in National A s s e m b l y d e b a t e s , w h i c h are officially c o n d u c t e d in b o t h Setswana and English. Council c a n d i d a t e s m u s t p o s s e s s t h e same qualifications b u t do n o t n e e d profic i e n c y in English. T h e traditional chiefs are d e b a r r e d from p a r t y politics b u t sit in an u p p e r house, t h e H o u s e of Chiefs, w h i c h has largely advisory p o w e r s . On e l e c t i o n day v o t e r s p r o c e e d to t h e i r local polling station (1,611 w e r e established in 1994) a n d are r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e t h e i r v o t e r registration c a r d and national identity card. Having satisfied the p r e s i d i n g officer o f e n t i t l e m e n t to v o t e the v o t e r has h i s / h e r t h u m b i m m e r s e d in indelible ink (to p r e v e n t a n y o n e v o t i n g m o r e than o n c e ) a n d is p r o v i d e d w i t h a ballot e n v e l o p e and a n u m b e r of c o l o u r e d discs ( e a c h p a r t y has an official c o l o u r and so t h e n u m b e r of discs p r o v i d e d is d e p e n d e n t on the n u m b e r of p a r t i e s c o n t e s t i n g t h e p a r t i c u l a r c o n s t i t u e n c y ) . T h e v o t e r t h e n e n t e r s the s e c r e c y o f t h e p o l l i n g b o o t h , m a k e s a c h o i c e by p l a c i n g o n e disc in the ballot e n v e l o p e , p u t s the o t h e r discs in a d i s c a r d b o x p r o v i d e d , and t h e n leaves t h e polling b o o t h to p l a c e t h e i r e n v e l o p e in the ballot box. Special arrangem e n t s are m a d e for b l i n d o r p h y s i c a l l y h a n d i c a p p e d voters. The use o f c o l o u r e d discs r a t h e r than ballot p a p e r s is d e s i g n e d to h e l p illiterate voters. A l t h o u g h literacy rates in B o t s w a n a are m u c h h i g h e r t h a n average for Africa, t h e r e are still a significant n u m b e r o f illiterate voters, e s p e c i a l l y in t h e rural areas and a m o n g the older generation. A l t h o u g h e l e c t i o n s in B o t s w a n a are n o t h i t c h - f r e e - - i n his r e c e n t official r e p o r t the S u p e r v i s o r o f Elections refers to "cases w h e r e r e g i s t r a t i o n c a r d s w e r e e a t e n up by g o a t s a n d h u n g r y c o w s ' - - t h e y have g e n e r a l l y b e e n w e l l a n d fairly c o n d u c t e d . T h e Elections Office p r o d u c e s a n d w i d e l y d i s t r i b u t e s a b o o k l e t o f o v e r o n e h u n d r e d p a g e s (half in English a n d half in S e t s w a n a ) w h i c h d e s c r i b e s in s i m p l e t e r m s t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e elections, h o w to register, w h a t to do on p o l l i n g day, and gives details o f all the c o m p e t i n g parties, t h e i r s y m b o l s a n d colours, a n d t h e i r leaders. The Parties Over the three decades since independence, Botswana may be most accurately c a t e g o r i s e d as a d o m i n a n t - p a r t y system. A l t h o u g h w e s u g g e s t b e l o w that t h e 1994 results m a y r e q u i r e s o m e q u a l i f i c a t i o n o f this c a t e g o r i s a t i o n it r e m a i n s t h e c a s e that, at t h e n a t i o n a l level, t h e s a m e p a r t y has c o m f o r t a b l y w o n e v e r y e l e c t i o n
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s i n c e t h e p r e - i n d e p e n d e n c e e l e c t i o n s o f 1965. T h e B o t s w a n a D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y ( B D P ) - - i n i t i a l l y l e d b y Sir S e r e t s e K h a m a a n d f o l l o w i n g t h e l a t t e r ' s d e a t h in 1980 b y his c l o s e f r i e n d Sir Q u e t t K e t u m i l e M a s i r e - - h a s m a i n t a i n e d a h e a l t h y parliam e n t a r y m a j o r i t y , p r e v i o u s l y a l w a y s w i n n i n g b e t w e e n 65 a n d 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e v o t e s a n d b e t w e e n 75 a n d 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e seats. U p to a n d i n c l u d i n g t h e 1994 c o n t e s t it r e m a i n s t h e o n l y p a r t y w i t h a t r u l y n a t i o n a l s u p p o r t base, g a i n i n g s i g n i f i c a n t n u m b e r s o f v o t e s e v e n in c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w h i c h it fails to w i n . T h e BDP is t h e b e s t o r g a n i s e d a n d b e s t f i n a n c e d o f t h e p a r t i e s a n d has b e n e f i t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f c o n t i n u e d i n c u m b e n c y . It has a l w a y s m a i n t a i n e d a h i g h level o f p a r t y u n i t y and, d e s p i t e t h e fact t h a t in r e c e n t y e a r s it has b e c o m e i m p o s s i b l e to h i d e t h e g r o w i n g f a c t i o n a l i s m w i t h i n t h e p a r t y , it has so far a v o i d e d t h e s o r t o f splits a n d d e f e c t i o n s w h i c h c a n easily d a m a g e e l e c t o r a l p r o s p e c t s . Until r e c e n t l y p a r t y l e a d e r s also e n j o y e d a r e p u t a t i o n for m o r a l r e c t i t u d e a n d p o l i t i c a l p r o b i t y . H o w e v e r , this w a s d e n t e d in 1992 w h e n t w o s e n i o r g o v e r n m e n t figures, i n c l u d i n g t h e V i c e - P r e s i d e n t , w e r e c o m p e l l e d to r e s i g n f o l l o w i n g a l l e g a t i o n s o f c o r r u p t i o n . This w a s f o l l o w e d b y f u r t h e r s c a n d a l s that i m p l i c a t e d , d i r e c t l y a n d i n d i r e c t l y , m a n y s e n i o r BDP p o l i t i c i a n s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e w a s n o s e r i o u s p r o s p e c t o f e l e c t o r a l d e f e a t for t h e BDP in 1994, t h e p a r t y e n t e r e d t h e e l e c t i o n l o o k i n g b o t h less m o n o l i t h i c a n d less i n v i n c i b l e t h a n in t h e past. Eight o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s c o n t e s t e d the 1994 elections. Of t h e s e o n l y o n e c o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d a serious c o n t e n d e r for p o w e r at the national level whilst t w o o t h e r s p o s e d s o m e t h r e a t to the BDP in p a r t i c u l a r regions. The B o t s w a n a National Front (BNF), w h i c h was f o u n d e d in 1966, has e m e r g e d o v e r t h e past 15 years o r so as the p a r t y m o s t likely to t h r e a t e n BDP d o m i n a n c e . Since its f o r m a t i o n the BNF has s t r u g g l e d to i n c o r p o r a t e a diverse range o f interests a n d g r o u p i n g s i n c l u d i n g minority (i.e. n o n - T s w a n a ) e t h n i c groups, radical intellectuals, dissatisfied traditional leaders, and quasi-proletarian u r b a n e l e m e n t s , w i t h the b a l a n c e of p o w e r w i t h i n the p a r t y u n d e r g o i n g shifts from o n e c o m p o n e n t g r o u p i n g to a n o t h e r o v e r time. More than a n y t h i n g it can b e seen as an organisational vehicle for t h o s e o p p o s e d to t h e ruling p a r t y a n d g o v e r n m e n t . Its i n s t r u m e n t a l coalitional n a t u r e has, h o w e v e r , left it p e r e n i a l l y v u l n e r a b l e to d e f e c t i o n s a n d t h e f o r m a t i o n o f b r e a k a w a y parties. Moreover, its p e r s i s t e n t factionalism has often b l u n t e d its e l e c t o r a l a p p e a l as intra-party s q u a b b l e s a n d p e r s o n a l i t y clashes have p r e o c c u p i e d its l e a d e r s h i p at crucial times. T h e only o t h e r parties w i t h significant s u p p o r t w e r e t h e I n d e p e n d e n c e F r e e d o m Party (IFP, a s o m e w h a t u n f o r t u n a t e a c r o n y m in t h e S o u t h e r n African c o n t e x t ) w i t h its regional base in the N o r t h W e s t a n d t h e B o t s w a n a P e o p l e ' s Party (BPP) w i t h a similar regional base in the N o r t h East. In the past t h e s e t w o p a r t i e s have m a n a g e d to w i n a tiny n u m b e r o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats (the IFP u n d e r its p r e v i o u s title t h e B o t s w a n a I n d e p e n d e n c e P a r t y - - B I P ) b u t are n o w c o n f i n e d to limited electoral success at the level o f c o u n c i l elections. T h e r e m a i n i n g five parties in t h e e l e c t i o n w e r e mainly BNF splinters o f n o real significance: t h e B o t s w a n a Labour Party (BLP), for e x a m p l e , fielded just o n e p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e w h o r e c e i v e d 23 votes. O n l y t h r e e parties, BDP, BNF, and BPP, n o m i n a t e d c a n d i d a t e s for t h e p r e s i d e n c y . In t h e p a r l i a m e n t a r y c o n t e s t t h e BDP n o m i n a t e d c a n d i d a t e s in all 40 c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , the BNF in 39, t h e BPP in 11, t h e IFP in 9, w h i l s t the o t h e r s h a d f o u r o r less candidates. C a n d i d a t e n u m b e r s in t h e local g o v e r n m e n t e l e c t i o n s w e r e BDP 405, BNF 345, BPP 56, IFP 55, w i t h t h e v e r y m i n o r parties all fielding far fewer.
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Campaigns T h e p r o c e s s a n d t i m e t a b l e o f e l e c t i o n c a m p a i g n i n g in B o t s w a n a follows a familiar a n d largely p r e d i c t a b l e pattern, c u l m i n a t i n g in, b u t n o t r e s t r i c t e d to, an official c a m p a i g n p e r i o d o f m o r e than a m o n t h that formally o p e n s w h e n p a r l i a m e n t is dissolved. This e v e n t u s h e r s in a time o f intensive p a r t y activity, c h a r a c t e r i s e d by an i n c r e a s e d f r e q u e n c y o f large-scale political rallies, featuring the a p p e a r a n c e of p a r t y leaders a n d o t h e r s e n i o r figures alongside local candidates. T h e s e m e e t i n g s are still c o m m o n l y r e f e r r e d to in B o t s w a n a by their p r e - i n d e p e n d e n c e title of ' F r e e d o m Squares': a t e r m that w a s itself b o r r o w e d from earlier, and n o w long d i s c a r d e d , South African usage. This official c a m p a i g n p e r i o d also sees the c o m m e n c e m e n t o f d i r e c t ' h o u s e - t o - h o u s e ' c a m p a i g n i n g , particularly in u r b a n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ; a p r a c t i c e u n i q u e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the BNF up to t h e mid-1980s but s u b s e q u e n t l y c o p i e d b y t h e others. H o w e v e r , the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e timing o f B o t s w a n a ' s electoral c o n t e s t s m e a n s that, in p r a c t i c e , p a r t y c a m p a i g n i n g , albeit less intensively, takes p l a c e o v e r a m u c h l o n g e r p e r i o d than the f e w w e e k s leading u p to polling day. This is particularly true for the ruling BDP, w h i c h p r o g r e s s i v e l y allows electoral priorities to s h a p e its b e h a v i o u r and activities o v e r m u c h o f a t w o y e a r p e r i o d leading u p to e a c h election. O v e r this p e r i o d t h e BDP g o v e r n m e n t , r a t h e r unsubtly, but so far effectively, increases p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e , particularly in t h e rural areas that form its electoral heartland. Additionally, p a r t y leaders, i n c l u d i n g the President, always a tireless c a m p a i g n e r , t o u r t h e c o u n t r y and r e m i n d the e l e c t o r a t e of t h e d e v e l o p m e n t a l benefits to B o t s w a n a and to individual Batswana that BDP rule has b r o u g h t . As the e l e c t i o n a p p r o a c h e s the p a c e of c a m p a i g n i n g increases, a l t h o u g h in rural c o n s t i t u e n c i e s in p a r t i c u l a r - - w h e r e the p r e s e n c e o f t h e BDP is g e n e r a l l y m u c h m o r e m a r k e d t h a n that of its o p p o s i t i o n - - i t s form often d o e s n o t vary greatly from w h a t is colloquially k n o w n as the 'Kgotla circuit'. This d e n o t e s the system w h e r e b y s e n i o r ruling p a r t y figures, on a regular basis, c o n s t a n t l y r e i n f o r c e t h e i r m e s s a g e o f stability, d e v e l o p m e n t and c o n s e r v a t i v e c h a n g e u n d e r the BDP at i n n u m e r a b l e village meetings. In u r b a n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s t h e r e is certainly m o r e o f a distinctive c a m p a i g n p e r i o d , and s o m e t i m e s a distinctive c a m p a i g n a t m o s p h e r e . Nevertheless, t h e effects o f c a m p a i g n i n g on the e l e c t o r a t e are n e v e r as m a r k e d as p o l i t i c i a n activity, w h i c h is often feverish, and k e e n m e d i a interest m i g h t indicate, and this c o n t r a s t was p e r h a p s the m o s t distinctive feature of t h e 1994 c a m p a i g n . Q u i t e simply, a p a t h y , a l w a y s an u n d e r l y i n g f e a t u r e o f B o t s w a n a ' s politics, w a s m o r e n o t i c e a b l e t h a n usual d u r i n g t h e r e c e n t c a m p a i g n . T h e r e w e r e a n u m b e r o f r e a s o n s for this situation, s o m e familiar a n d s o m e s p e c i f i c to t h e 1994 c o n t e s t . In the first p l a c e t h e f o c u s o n e l e c t o r a l issues o v e r several m o n t h s p r i o r to the poll t e n d s to b e self-defeating. Specifically, t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y d e s p e r a t e a t t e m p t s by t h e Office o f E l e c t i o n s o v e r t h e s u m m e r o f 1994 to r e g i s t e r a r e s p e c t a b l e p r o p o r tion o f t h e v o t i n g age p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d o n l y to u n d e r l i n e u r b a n d i s i n t e r e s t in p a r t i c u l a r . Similarly, t h e e x t e n t o f factional strife in b o t h t h e m a j o r p a r t i e s w a s c o n s t a n t l y u n d e r l i n e d o v e r t h e s u m m e r b y t h e e x t e n s i v e p u b l i c i t y g i v e n to personally acrimonious primary election contests; intra-party contests which c o m p l e t e l y o v e r s h a d o w e d l e a d e r s h i p a t t e m p t s to f o c u s a t t e n t i o n on p a r t y m a n i f e s t o e s a n d p o l i c i e s . P r i m a r i e s are t h e s y s t e m o f c a n d i d a t e s e l e c t i o n f o l l o w e d b y b o t h t h e m a j o r parties, a n d o n e that h a d c o n t r a s t e d a u n i t e d BDP to a d i s u n i t e d o p p o s i t i o n at e v e r y p r e v i o u s e l e c t i o n . Finally, t h e d e c i s i o n b y t h e BDP to, essen-
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tially, s u r r e n d e r the u r b a n areas to the BNF, largely leaving u r b a n c a m p a i g n i n g to its candidates, r a t h e r t h a n relying o n mass rallies a n d its 'big n a m e s ' to press h o m e its m e s s a g e s of c o m p e t e n c e a n d c o n t i n u i t y . This m e a n t that the c a m p a i g n itself t e n d e d to be trivialised as i n d i v i d u a l c a n d i d a t e s a t t a c k e d each o t h e r in a series of p e r s o n a l i s e d , c o n s t i t u e n c y - s p e c i f i c c a m p a i g n c o n t e s t s that often b o r e little r e l a t i o n s h i p to e i t h e r party p l a t f o r m s or the e c o n o m i c p r o b l e m s facing the country.
Results From the p o i n t of v i e w of the Supervisor of Elections the t u r n o u t in 1994 was a highly respectable 76.6 p e r c e n t w h i c h was eight p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s u p o n the most r e c e n t election of 1989. However, the Supervisor had reason to b e d i s a p p o i n t e d over the p r o p o r t i o n of citizens of voting age w h o registered to vote in 1994. In 1989, 72 p e r c e n t of the estimated voting age g r o u p w e r e registered b u t in 1994 this fell to 62 p e r cent. Similarly, b o t h of the major parties had good reason to be at o n c e pleased and d i s a p p o i n t e d with the results. The BDP w o n 26 parliamentary seats w i t h 54.43 p e r c e n t of the votes (and s u b s e q u e n t l y also w o n the delayed election in Thamaga). This r e p r e s e n t s b o t h a comfortable victory a n d the worst ever electoral p e r f o r m a n c e for the party, w h i c h has n o w lost almost 14 p e r c e n t of its vote over the last two elections. A m o n g s t the defeated BDP candidates w e r e three senior c a b i n e t ministers, Archie Mogwe (Mineral Resources a n d W a t e r Afairs), K e b a t h l a m a n g Morake (Agriculture) a n d Ray Molomo (Education). Whilst the strtlcture of the BDP s u p p o r t base, with its heavy reliance o n p r e d o m i n a n t l y rural voters and its near total d o m i n a n c e of Central District (still m u c h the most p o p u l o u s District a n d the original base of Seretse Khama), r e m a i n s substantially intact it is n o w almost e v e r y w h e r e subject to erosion. If this erosion w e r e to c o n t i n u e at the p r e s e n t rate it can be a s s u m e d that the BDP's electoral f o u n d a t i o n s will c r u m b l e s o o n e r rather t h a n later (see table o n page 350). The major beneficiaries of this e r o s i o n w e r e the BNF. In 1994 the BNF w o n 13 seats w i t h 37.07 p e r c e n t of the vote. This was a significant a d v a n c e o n the 1984 result w h e n the party w o n 4 seats with 20.4 p e r c e n t of the vote and o n 1989 w h e n it w o n 3 scats w i t h 26.95 per cent. In the u r b a n areas it was the BNF w h i c h e m e r g e d as the d o m i n a n t party: in the capital, G a b o r o n e , it w o n all four of the p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats a n d 24 out of 25 seats o n the T o w n Council. Similar d o m i n a n c e of t o w n c o u n c i l s by the BNF o c c u r r e d in Lobatse (10 out of 11 seats), Selebi P h i k w e (all 13 scats), a n d J w a n e n g (all 7 seats) a n d the party w o n all of the parliam e n t a r y seats in the c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . Apart from d o m i n a t i n g the u r b a n areas the BNF w o n six scats in rural c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . In addition to this there w e r e four c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ( M a u n / C h o b e , North East, N g w a k e t s e West, F r a n c i s t o w n East) in w h i c h the c o m b i n e d o p p o s i t i o n vote e x c e e d e d that of the BDP w i n n e r . N o n e of the o t h e r o p p o s i t i o n parties w o n any p a r l i a m e n t a r y seats. The BPP a n d the IFP did achieve significant r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o n a c o u p l e of local c o u n c i l s in their h e a r t l a n d areas but, o n the basis of these results, c a n n o t be regarded as significant n a t i o n a l parties. T h e m i n o r o p p o s i t i o n parties w e r e of little m o r e t h a n n u i s a n c e value b u t they w e r e m u c h m o r e of a n u i s a n c e to the BNF t h a n to the BDP. A l t h o u g h this was clearly the best ever result for the BNF, the party still paid a price for o p p o s i t i o n f r a g m e n t a t i o n a n d for the failure to capitalise fully o n the p r o b l e m s of the BDP.
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Conclusions T h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f t h e Batswana in r u n n i n g a sixth c o n s e c u t i v e free, fair, d e m o c ratic, and p e a c e f u l e l e c t i o n in the post-colonial p e r i o d has to be r e c o g n i s e d a n d a p p r e c i a t e d in its o w n right and as a k e y e l e m e n t in, and i n d i c a t o r of, the g e n e r a l r e c o r d o f p e a c e a n d p r o g r e s s w h i c h m a r k s out B o t s w a n a from so m a n y o t h e r African states. N o n e t h e l e s s , the results of t h e 1994 c o n t e s t d o suggest that s o m e qualification o f t h e d o m i n a n t - p a r t y m o d e l is n e c e s s a r y to e n c a p s u l a t e the d e m o n strated s t r e n g t h of o p p o s i t i o n and t h e i n c r e a s e d c o m p l e x i t y of t h e electoral situation. To d e s c r i b e a ruling p a r t y w h i c h can w i n only just o v e r half o f t h e national v o t e as d o m i n a n t m i g h t a p p e a r to b e flattering, particularly w h e n that p a r t y ' s vote fell by 10 p e r c e n t and that o f its main rival rose by a c o m p a r a b l e amount. At a local level, for e x a m p l e in G a b o r o n e , the label o f d o m i n a n t - p a r t y n o w a p p e a r s m o r e a p p l i c a b l e to t h e BNF t h a n t h e BDP. Nationally, t h e o u t c o m e suggests the distinct possibility that the BDP c o u l d lose p o w e r in 1999.
Estonian Parliamentary Elections, March 1995 REIN TAAGEPERA
University of California, Irvine, CA 92717, USA, and Tartu University, EE-2400 Tartu, Estonia
On
20
September
1992
Estonia h e l d
its first p o s t - o c c u p a t i o n
e l e c t i o n s for
Riigikogu ( p a r l i a m e n t ) a n d p r e s i d e n t . O n 5 March 1995 Riigikogu e l e c t i o n again t o o k place, as p l a n n e d , a n d shifted p o w e r from t h e right t o w a r d t h e center. An e t h n i c Russian p a r t y w o n seats, w h i c h h e l p s alleviate e t h n i c stress. T h e largely s y m b o l i c a l p r e s i d e n t will b e e l e c t e d in 1 9 9 6 - - b y Riigikogu (unless t h e C o n s t i t u t i o n is a m e n d e d ) .
Electoral System To allocate the 101 Riigikogu seats, Estonia m i x e s Finland, G e r m a n y , a n d u n i q u e divisors. It starts w i t h Finnish-type 'quasi-list' PR (for t e r m i n o l o g y see T a a g e p e r a and Shugart, 1989) in l l districts w i t h m a g n i t u d e s ranging from 7 to 12, for an average o f 9.2. (In 1992 t h e r e w e r e 12 districts, m a g n i t u d e s 5 to 13, average 8.4.) Voters w r i t e o n e individual c a n d i d a t e ' s n u m b e r o n t h e ballot; t h e y p r e s u m a b l y are a w a r e o f h e r list affiliation. C a n d i d a t e s w h o r e c e i v e a full s i m p l e q u o t a are ' p e r s o n ally e l e c t e d ' . T h e r e m a i n d e r s are a d d e d b y p a r t y ( o r alliance) lists, and if full q u o t a s materialize, t h e t o p vote-getters o n t h e list r e c e i v e 'district seats'. T h e seats for list r e m a i n d e r s (fractions o f quotas), h o w e v e r , are n o t a l l o c a t e d in districts. Unlike Finland, t h e y are a l l o c a t e d o n t h e basis of n a t i o n w i d e c l o s e d lists. As in G e r m a n y , allocation is c o m p e n s a t o r y , so as to r e s t o r e n a t i o n w i d e PR, s u b j e c t to a 5 p e r c e n t