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The August 1994 elections in Mexico
Notes on Recent Elections
199
Der Speigel (1994) Economist (1994) 4 June ELDR Election Manifesto (1994), Building a Citizen's Europe. Adopted by ELDR Congress at Torquay on 10 December 1993. Electoral Studies (1994), Notes of the 1994 Elections to the European Parliament, 13(4) J. Fitzmaurice, "Belgium", S.R. Thomsen, "Denmark", G. Grunberg, "France", H.D. Klingemann, "Germany", R. Mortimore, "Great Britain", P.E. Dimitras, "Greece", M. Marsh, "The Republic of Ireland", L.L. Verso, "Italy", D. Hearl, "Luxembourg", G. Irwin, "The Netherlands", D.B. Goldey, "Portugal" J.M. ValMs, "Spain". Eurobarometer 41, July 1994. Eurobarometer, Trends 1974-1993. European Social Democrats (1993), Manifest voor de verkiezingen voor bet Europees Parlement van j u n i 1994, adopted at the congress of the party of European Social Democrats, 6 November 1993. Financial Times (1994) 9 June. International Herald Tribune (1994) 7 June. Kuechler, Manfred (1991), Issues and voting in the European elections 1989, European Journal o f Political Research, 19 81-103. Manifest ven de EVP voor de Europese verkiezingen 91994) April 1994. Niedermayer, Oskar (1984), The Transnational Dimension of the Election, Electoral Studies, 3(3) 235-243. Niedermayer, Oskar (1989), The 1989 European elections: Campaigns and results, European Journal o f Political Research 19 3-16. Reif, Karlheinz (1984), National Electoral Cycles and European Elections 1979 and 1984, Electoral Studies, 3(3) 244-255. Reif, Karlheinz; Schmitt Hermann (1980), Nine Second-order National Elections-A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results, European Journal o f Political Research, 8 3-44. Schmitt, Hermann; Mannheimer, Renato (1991), About w)ting and non-voting in the European elections of june 1989, European.lournal ~fPolitical Research, 19 31-54. The European (1994) 27 May-2 June. Van Gunsteren, Herman (1994), Europees burgerschap in wording?, Staatscourant 102, 2 June. Van dcr Eijk, Cces and Franklin Mark N (1991), European Community politics and electoral representation: Evidence from the 1989 European Elections Study, European Journal o f Political Research, 19 105-127. Van der Eijk, Cees, Franklin Mark N. and Oppenhuis Erik (1994), Consulting the Oracle: The Consequences of Treating European Elections as "Markers' of Domestic Political Developments, paper prepared for meetings of Dutch Political Science Association, Soesterbert, 26-27 May.
The August 1994 Elections in Mexico JOE FOWERAKERAND TODD LAN1)MAN
D e p a r t m e n t o f G o v e r n m e n t , U n i v e r s i t y o f Essex, W i v e n h o e Park, Colchester C 0 4 3SQ, UK
Background to t h e E l e c t i o n s Mexico is a "one-party d o m i n a n t " political system, a n d the Institutional Revolutionary. Party, the PRI, has b e e n in p o w e r for 65 years. This makes it the most e n d u r i n g of all the one-party systems c o n s t r u c t e d in the 20th century. The July 1988 elections w e r e the most c o n t e s t e d and conflictual of the PRI's 60 year electoral history, and
200
.!
Notes on Recent Elections
80 60
•
40
~-
°
1934
1940
1946
1952
195g
1964
1970
,
1976
n
1982
1988
1994
Year q
m
PRI
[]
PAN
--*
OTHER
¢----- Turnout ]
FIG. 1. Mexican electoral history (1934-1994) t h e i r result w a s dramatically d e l a y e d b y t h e a p p a r e n t "crash" o f t h e national electoral c o m p u t e r . W h e n t h e result w a s a n n o u n c e d s o m e seven days after t h e election, t h e PRI h a d w o n b y a b a r e b u t a b s o l u t e majority o f t h e v o t e s cast ( c o m p a r e Fig. 1). Electoral o p p o s i t i o n to t h e PRI in 1988 w a s e x p r e s s e d b y t h e National Action Party (PAN) on t h e right a n d t h e National D e m o c r a t i c Front (FDN) o n t h e left. The FDN w a s an e l e c t o r a l c o a l i t i o n o f traditional left o r p s e u d o - l e f t p a r t i e s allied to a s p l i n t e r g r o u p f r o m t h e d o m i n a n t party, w h i c h w a s led by C u a u h t e m o c C a r d e n a s (the son o f t h e illustrious PRI p r e s i d e n t o f t h e 1930s). In the m o n t h s f o l l o w i n g t h e 1988 e l e c t i o n s t h e r u m p o f t h e FDN f o r m e d a n e w party, t h e Party o f the D e m o c r a t i c R e v o l u t i o n (PRD), w h i c h w a s n e v e r r e c o n c i l e d to t h e e l e c t i o n result, a n d has c o n t i n u e d to insist that t h e p r e s e n t PRI g o v e r n m e n t is illegitimate, a n d f o u n d e d o n an e l e c t o r a l fraud o f massive p r o p o r t i o n s . Since 1988 t h e PRI has b e e n steadily r e c o v e r i n g its s u p p o r t in t h e c o u n t r y , a n d this r e c o v e r y w a s w e l l a d v a n c e d b y t h e t i m e o f t h e mid-term e l e c t i o n s in 1991. It is g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d that t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f P r e s i d e n t Salinas has b e e n successful in its m a i n p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , e s p e c i a l l y in its e c o n o m i c policy. Steady e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , l o w inflation a n d t h e s p e c t a c u l a r p o l i c y s u c c e s s o f NAFFA a l l o w e d t h e PRI to c a m p a i g n on its r e c o r d o f e c o n o m i c c o m p e t e n c e , a n d t h e u r b a n m i d d l e classes, w h o d e f e c t e d in d r o v e s in 1988, c a m e b a c k to s u p p o r t t h e PRI this year. At t h e s a m e t i m e t h e PRI h a d l e a r n e d its lesson from t h e fright it t o o k in 1988, a n d has r e o r g a n i z e d itself as a c a m p a i g n i n g p a r t y w i t h a clear c a m p a i g n strategy. Its traditional f o c u s on t h e c o u n t r y s i d e w a s s w i t c h e d to t h e city, w h e r e it t a r g e t e d key c o n s t i t u e n c i e s a m o n g s t t h e p o o r u r b a n districts (the m a j o r i t y of t h e PRI's v o t e t e n d s to c o m e from t h e p o o r e r , less e d u c a t e d and o l d e r o f M e x i c o ' s voters). T h e Salinas a d m i n i s t r a t i o n u s e d its National Solidarity P r o g r a m m e (PRONASOL) to d e p l o y p o r k - b a r r e l p o l i t i c s o n an u n p r e c e d e n t e d scale in t h e successful c o n s t r u c tion o f n e w majorities. As a result ( a n d against t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s of m a n y c o m m e n tators) t h e v e r y h i g h t u r n o u t ( s o m e 77 p e r cent, as s e e n in Table 1) t e n d e d to w o r k in t h e PRI's favour. T h e electoral c a m p a i g n itself w a s full of drama. T h e y e a r o p e n e d w i t h the beginning o f t h e a r m e d r e b e l l i o n in Chiapas, a n d in the s p r i n g t i m e t h e PRI's presidential candidate, Luis D o n a l d o Colosio, w a s assassinated w h i l e on t h e c a m p a i g n trial. The PRI r e p l a c e d him w i t h his o w n c a m p a i g n m a n a g e r , E m e s t o Zedillo, w h o successfully s o u g h t to c o n v i n c e t h e v o t e r s that only t h e PRI c o u l d e n s u r e political stability
201
Notes on Recent Elections
TABLE 1. The results Total electorate Total votes % Abstaining Number of authorised voting booths Urban voting booths Rural voting booths Number of installed booths 21 August Number of political parties
45,729,053 35,545,831 22.17% 96,415 76,360 (79.20%) 20,055 (20.80%) 96,395 (99.98%) 9
in t h e face o f political violence. T h e o p i n i o n polls ( w i d e l y used for t h e first time in this c a m p a i g n ) r e p e a t e d l y s u g g e s t e d the i m p o r t a n c e o f this "fear vote" (voto de m i e d o ) to t h e PRI's s u p p o r t . M e x i c o a p p r o a c h e d t h e s e e l e c t i o n s w i t h b o t h t r e p i d a t i o n a n d e x p e c t a t i o n . To r e c o v e r its l e g i t i m a c y t h e PRI g o v e r n m e n t h a d p u t in p l a c e a series o f e l e c t o r a l reforms, which had been evaluated and found good by a technical commission f r o m t h e U n i t e d Nations. T h e F e d e r a l E l e c t o r a l I n s t i t u t e (IFE), w h i c h o v e r s e e s t h e e l e c t o r a l p r o c e s s , w a s n o w g e n u i n e l y i n d e p e n d e n t . A n e w v o t e r s ' r e g i s t r a t i o n list h a d b e e n c o m p i l e d ( a n d f o u n d to b e l a r g e l y a c c u r a t e ) , a n d v o t e r s t h e m s e l v e s i s s u e d w i t h n e w i d e n t i t y cards. F o r t h e first t i m e in d e c a d e s M e x i c a n s t h o u g h t t h e i r v o t e c o u l d really c o u n t , a n d this e x p l a i n s t h e i m p r e s s i v e t u r n o u t . H e n c e , w h e n t h e PRI finally w o n w i t h a f r a c t i o n o v e r 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e valid v o t e s cast, it c o u l d claim that it d i d so fair a n d square. T h e PRI, p e r h a p s to its o w n s u r p r i s e , f o u n d t h a t it c o u l d w i n b y fair m e a n s as w e l l as foul. F o r t h e M e x i c a n s ( e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w h o v o t e d for t h e o p p o s i t i o n ) A u g u s t 1994 t u r n e d o u t to be, as N a m i c r first s u g g e s t e d , " o n e o f t h e g r e a t t u r n i n g p o i n t s o f h i s t o r y w h e n history, r e f u s e d to turn". The electoral s y s t e m a n d the electoral results
O n 21 August 1994 M e x i c a n s v o t e d to elect t h e i r President, t h e i r Senate (96 seats) a n d 300 d e p u t i e s o f t h e 500 seat C h a m b e r of D e p u t i e s (the l o w e r house). T h e y also v o t e d to e l e c t forty r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s to t h e A s s e m b l y o f R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the Federal District o f M e x i c o City, a non-legislative body. In t h e Presidential e l e c t i o n s (see Table 2) t h e c a n d i d a t e w i t h m o s t v o t e s wins, so t h e PRI's n a r r o w b u t a b s o l u t e m a j o r i t y w a s not n e c e s s a r y to w i n t h e m t h e p r e s i d e n c y , b u t e x p r e s s e d symbolically TABLE2. Presidential election Party
Total votes received
% of Total vote
% Valid vote
PRI (Zedillo) PAN (Diego) PRD (Cfirdenas) PT PVEM PFCRN PARM PPS PDM
17,333,931 9,221,474 5,901,324 975,246 330,322 301,508 195,077 166,547 99,2 i 5
48.77 25.94 16.60 2.74 0.93 0.85 0.55 0.47 0.28
50.18 26.90 17.08 2.82 0.96 0.87 0.56 0.49 0.29
N o t e s o n R e c e n t Elections
202
TABLE3. Federal deputies Party
Proportion
Deputies
PRI PAN PRD PT Other Total
50.28 25.77 16.71 2.65 4.53 99.94
277 18 5 0 0 300
TABLE 4. Senate results
Party
Seats
PRI PAN PRD
64 24 8
TABLE5. Assembly of Representatives for Mexico, DF Party
Proportion
Deputies
PRI PAN PRD PT PVEM PFCRN PPS PARM PDM Total
40.56 27.06 21.19 4.12 3.90 1.25 0.79 0.62 0.45 100.12
38 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
its c o n t i n u i n g d o m i n a n c e of this "one-party d o m i n a n t " system. The PAN's vote was the highest of its history, a n d may be a p p r o a c h i n g the critical mass w h i c h will make it a credible c o n t e n d e r for g o v e r n m e n t by the e n d of the century. The left-wing PRD, r u n n i n g for the first time u n d e r its n e w party label, m a d e a respectable s h o w i n g . T h e small r e m a i n d e r of the vote was distributed b e t w e e n a n u m b e r of left-wing parties, a traditional c o n s e r v a t i v e party (the PARM) a n d a very small rightw i n g party (the PDM). In the congressional elections ( w h e t h e r for Senate or the Chamber of Deputies) there are so-called "proportionality clauses" w h i c h systematically over-represent the majority party. In addition (though not relevant to this election) there is a "govemability clause" that makes it almost impossible for the PRI to lose control of congress, even if its vote were to dip b e l o w 35 p e r cent. Thus, even if the electoral process itself n o w appears fairer (or more "transparent" as they have it in Mexico), the electoral system is still heavily biased in favour of the PRI. As a result, the PRI's 50 plus per cent of the vote gave it 277 of the 300 seats up for election in the C h a m b e r of Deputies and 64 of the Senate's 96 seats (see Tables 3 and 4). Crucially, it n o w has the two-thirds majority in the Senate (lost in the 1988 elections) necessary to pass constitutional amendments.
Notes on Recent Elections
203
The inhabitants of the Federal District are the least "represented" of all Mexicans, having no equivalent (in M e x i c o ' s federal ,system) to an e l e c t e d g o v e r n o r and state assembly. Nonetheless, elections to the District's non-legislative Assembly of RepYesentatives are subject to the same "proportionality clauses", so that the PRI's 40 p e r c e n t of the vote ( c o m p a r e d to 50 p e r cent nationally) gave it total d o m i n a n c e of the c h a m b e r , w i t h 38 out o f 40 seats, w h e r e a s the PRDs 21 p e r c e n t gave it no representation w h a t s o e v e r (see Table 5). Overall, with an even l o w e r p e r c e n t a g e o f the vote than in 1988 the PRI achieved consistently higher levels o f congressional representation, in Senate, in the C h a m b e r of Deputies, and in t h e Assembly of Representatives. The electoral results s h o w e d almost no e v i d e n c e of split-ticket voting.
Concluding Remarks M t h o u g h t h e PRI r e c e i v e d r o u g h l y t h e s a m e p r o p o r t i o n o f the overall v o t e in 1994 as in 1988, its v o t e w a s s p r e a d m u c h m o r e e v e n l y across t h e c o u n t r y in 1994 t h a n in 1988. O n t h e o n e hand, t h e PRI's v o t e h e l d u p well in u r b a n areas (reflecting a successful and long-term c a m p a i g n strategy) a n d t h e s p r e a d b e t w e e n its rural a n d u r b a n v o t e w a s t h e smallest in 30 years ( b o t h v o t e s c o n s i s t e n t l y falling in the 45 to 55 p e r c e n t band). O n t h e other, t h e PRl's v o t e w a s s p r e a d e v e n l y across the differe n t r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y (so i r o n i n g o u t t h e highs and l o w s o f 1988). In this regard, a l t h o u g h t h e overall results s e e m to indicate an i n c i p i e n t tripartisan e l e c t o r a l l a n d s c a p e , t h e PRI mainly c o m p e t e d w i t h t h e PAN in t h e (loosely d e f i n e d ) n o r t h o f the c o u n t r y and mainly c o m p e t e d w i t h t h e PRD in its n e w bastion o f t h e s o u t h of the country. T h e PRD w a s h u r t b y t h e d e f e c t i o n o f t h e u r b a n middle-class v o t e r s it h a d w o n (in t h e form o f t h e FDN c o a l i t i o n ) in 1988. T h e main q u e s t i o n for t h e political system n o w is w h e t h e r t h e PRD will b e a l l o w e d to d e v e l o p into an institutionalized left-of-centre p a r t y ( w h i c h M e x i c o c e r t a i n l y n e e d s ) , o r w h e t h e r t h e PRI will m o v e to corral a n d e m a s c u l a t e it. T h e PAN r e c e i v e d s t r o n g s u p p o r t a m o n g s t y o u n g urban v o t e r s ( e s p e c i a l l y in t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n centres), and, a l t h o u g h it suffered defeats in its r e g i o n a l s t r o n g h o l d s o f C h i h u a h u a a n d Baja California, significantly i n c r e a s e d its c o n g r e s s i o n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . It will find it v e r y difficult to i m p r o v e on its p r e s e n t s h o w i n g w i t h o u t e x t e n d i n g its a p p e a l to p o o r v o t e r s and v o t e r s in rural areas, e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e in t h e s o u t h o f the c o u n t r y .
The Slovak Election o f September 1994 JOHN FITZMAURICE 6 6 r u e L o u i s Socquet, 1030 Brussels, B e l g i u m
This w a s t h e first e l e c t i o n since Slovakia b e c a m e i n d e p e n d e n t in J a n u a r y 1993. B e t w e e n 1990 a n d 1993, t h e Slovak National C o u n c i l w a s part o f t h e federal a r r a n g e m e n t s in t h e f o r m e r federal C z e c h o s l o v a k i a , o f w h i c h Slovakia w a s a part.
199
Der Speigel (1994) Economist (1994) 4 June ELDR Election Manifesto (1994), Building a Citizen's Europe. Adopted by ELDR Congress at Torquay on 10 December 1993. Electoral Studies (1994), Notes of the 1994 Elections to the European Parliament, 13(4) J. Fitzmaurice, "Belgium", S.R. Thomsen, "Denmark", G. Grunberg, "France", H.D. Klingemann, "Germany", R. Mortimore, "Great Britain", P.E. Dimitras, "Greece", M. Marsh, "The Republic of Ireland", L.L. Verso, "Italy", D. Hearl, "Luxembourg", G. Irwin, "The Netherlands", D.B. Goldey, "Portugal" J.M. ValMs, "Spain". Eurobarometer 41, July 1994. Eurobarometer, Trends 1974-1993. European Social Democrats (1993), Manifest voor de verkiezingen voor bet Europees Parlement van j u n i 1994, adopted at the congress of the party of European Social Democrats, 6 November 1993. Financial Times (1994) 9 June. International Herald Tribune (1994) 7 June. Kuechler, Manfred (1991), Issues and voting in the European elections 1989, European Journal o f Political Research, 19 81-103. Manifest ven de EVP voor de Europese verkiezingen 91994) April 1994. Niedermayer, Oskar (1984), The Transnational Dimension of the Election, Electoral Studies, 3(3) 235-243. Niedermayer, Oskar (1989), The 1989 European elections: Campaigns and results, European Journal o f Political Research 19 3-16. Reif, Karlheinz (1984), National Electoral Cycles and European Elections 1979 and 1984, Electoral Studies, 3(3) 244-255. Reif, Karlheinz; Schmitt Hermann (1980), Nine Second-order National Elections-A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results, European Journal o f Political Research, 8 3-44. Schmitt, Hermann; Mannheimer, Renato (1991), About w)ting and non-voting in the European elections of june 1989, European.lournal ~fPolitical Research, 19 31-54. The European (1994) 27 May-2 June. Van Gunsteren, Herman (1994), Europees burgerschap in wording?, Staatscourant 102, 2 June. Van dcr Eijk, Cces and Franklin Mark N (1991), European Community politics and electoral representation: Evidence from the 1989 European Elections Study, European Journal o f Political Research, 19 105-127. Van der Eijk, Cees, Franklin Mark N. and Oppenhuis Erik (1994), Consulting the Oracle: The Consequences of Treating European Elections as "Markers' of Domestic Political Developments, paper prepared for meetings of Dutch Political Science Association, Soesterbert, 26-27 May.
The August 1994 Elections in Mexico JOE FOWERAKERAND TODD LAN1)MAN
D e p a r t m e n t o f G o v e r n m e n t , U n i v e r s i t y o f Essex, W i v e n h o e Park, Colchester C 0 4 3SQ, UK
Background to t h e E l e c t i o n s Mexico is a "one-party d o m i n a n t " political system, a n d the Institutional Revolutionary. Party, the PRI, has b e e n in p o w e r for 65 years. This makes it the most e n d u r i n g of all the one-party systems c o n s t r u c t e d in the 20th century. The July 1988 elections w e r e the most c o n t e s t e d and conflictual of the PRI's 60 year electoral history, and
200
.!
Notes on Recent Elections
80 60
•
40
~-
°
1934
1940
1946
1952
195g
1964
1970
,
1976
n
1982
1988
1994
Year q
m
PRI
[]
PAN
--*
OTHER
¢----- Turnout ]
FIG. 1. Mexican electoral history (1934-1994) t h e i r result w a s dramatically d e l a y e d b y t h e a p p a r e n t "crash" o f t h e national electoral c o m p u t e r . W h e n t h e result w a s a n n o u n c e d s o m e seven days after t h e election, t h e PRI h a d w o n b y a b a r e b u t a b s o l u t e majority o f t h e v o t e s cast ( c o m p a r e Fig. 1). Electoral o p p o s i t i o n to t h e PRI in 1988 w a s e x p r e s s e d b y t h e National Action Party (PAN) on t h e right a n d t h e National D e m o c r a t i c Front (FDN) o n t h e left. The FDN w a s an e l e c t o r a l c o a l i t i o n o f traditional left o r p s e u d o - l e f t p a r t i e s allied to a s p l i n t e r g r o u p f r o m t h e d o m i n a n t party, w h i c h w a s led by C u a u h t e m o c C a r d e n a s (the son o f t h e illustrious PRI p r e s i d e n t o f t h e 1930s). In the m o n t h s f o l l o w i n g t h e 1988 e l e c t i o n s t h e r u m p o f t h e FDN f o r m e d a n e w party, t h e Party o f the D e m o c r a t i c R e v o l u t i o n (PRD), w h i c h w a s n e v e r r e c o n c i l e d to t h e e l e c t i o n result, a n d has c o n t i n u e d to insist that t h e p r e s e n t PRI g o v e r n m e n t is illegitimate, a n d f o u n d e d o n an e l e c t o r a l fraud o f massive p r o p o r t i o n s . Since 1988 t h e PRI has b e e n steadily r e c o v e r i n g its s u p p o r t in t h e c o u n t r y , a n d this r e c o v e r y w a s w e l l a d v a n c e d b y t h e t i m e o f t h e mid-term e l e c t i o n s in 1991. It is g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d that t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f P r e s i d e n t Salinas has b e e n successful in its m a i n p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , e s p e c i a l l y in its e c o n o m i c policy. Steady e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , l o w inflation a n d t h e s p e c t a c u l a r p o l i c y s u c c e s s o f NAFFA a l l o w e d t h e PRI to c a m p a i g n on its r e c o r d o f e c o n o m i c c o m p e t e n c e , a n d t h e u r b a n m i d d l e classes, w h o d e f e c t e d in d r o v e s in 1988, c a m e b a c k to s u p p o r t t h e PRI this year. At t h e s a m e t i m e t h e PRI h a d l e a r n e d its lesson from t h e fright it t o o k in 1988, a n d has r e o r g a n i z e d itself as a c a m p a i g n i n g p a r t y w i t h a clear c a m p a i g n strategy. Its traditional f o c u s on t h e c o u n t r y s i d e w a s s w i t c h e d to t h e city, w h e r e it t a r g e t e d key c o n s t i t u e n c i e s a m o n g s t t h e p o o r u r b a n districts (the m a j o r i t y of t h e PRI's v o t e t e n d s to c o m e from t h e p o o r e r , less e d u c a t e d and o l d e r o f M e x i c o ' s voters). T h e Salinas a d m i n i s t r a t i o n u s e d its National Solidarity P r o g r a m m e (PRONASOL) to d e p l o y p o r k - b a r r e l p o l i t i c s o n an u n p r e c e d e n t e d scale in t h e successful c o n s t r u c tion o f n e w majorities. As a result ( a n d against t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s of m a n y c o m m e n tators) t h e v e r y h i g h t u r n o u t ( s o m e 77 p e r cent, as s e e n in Table 1) t e n d e d to w o r k in t h e PRI's favour. T h e electoral c a m p a i g n itself w a s full of drama. T h e y e a r o p e n e d w i t h the beginning o f t h e a r m e d r e b e l l i o n in Chiapas, a n d in the s p r i n g t i m e t h e PRI's presidential candidate, Luis D o n a l d o Colosio, w a s assassinated w h i l e on t h e c a m p a i g n trial. The PRI r e p l a c e d him w i t h his o w n c a m p a i g n m a n a g e r , E m e s t o Zedillo, w h o successfully s o u g h t to c o n v i n c e t h e v o t e r s that only t h e PRI c o u l d e n s u r e political stability
201
Notes on Recent Elections
TABLE 1. The results Total electorate Total votes % Abstaining Number of authorised voting booths Urban voting booths Rural voting booths Number of installed booths 21 August Number of political parties
45,729,053 35,545,831 22.17% 96,415 76,360 (79.20%) 20,055 (20.80%) 96,395 (99.98%) 9
in t h e face o f political violence. T h e o p i n i o n polls ( w i d e l y used for t h e first time in this c a m p a i g n ) r e p e a t e d l y s u g g e s t e d the i m p o r t a n c e o f this "fear vote" (voto de m i e d o ) to t h e PRI's s u p p o r t . M e x i c o a p p r o a c h e d t h e s e e l e c t i o n s w i t h b o t h t r e p i d a t i o n a n d e x p e c t a t i o n . To r e c o v e r its l e g i t i m a c y t h e PRI g o v e r n m e n t h a d p u t in p l a c e a series o f e l e c t o r a l reforms, which had been evaluated and found good by a technical commission f r o m t h e U n i t e d Nations. T h e F e d e r a l E l e c t o r a l I n s t i t u t e (IFE), w h i c h o v e r s e e s t h e e l e c t o r a l p r o c e s s , w a s n o w g e n u i n e l y i n d e p e n d e n t . A n e w v o t e r s ' r e g i s t r a t i o n list h a d b e e n c o m p i l e d ( a n d f o u n d to b e l a r g e l y a c c u r a t e ) , a n d v o t e r s t h e m s e l v e s i s s u e d w i t h n e w i d e n t i t y cards. F o r t h e first t i m e in d e c a d e s M e x i c a n s t h o u g h t t h e i r v o t e c o u l d really c o u n t , a n d this e x p l a i n s t h e i m p r e s s i v e t u r n o u t . H e n c e , w h e n t h e PRI finally w o n w i t h a f r a c t i o n o v e r 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e valid v o t e s cast, it c o u l d claim that it d i d so fair a n d square. T h e PRI, p e r h a p s to its o w n s u r p r i s e , f o u n d t h a t it c o u l d w i n b y fair m e a n s as w e l l as foul. F o r t h e M e x i c a n s ( e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w h o v o t e d for t h e o p p o s i t i o n ) A u g u s t 1994 t u r n e d o u t to be, as N a m i c r first s u g g e s t e d , " o n e o f t h e g r e a t t u r n i n g p o i n t s o f h i s t o r y w h e n history, r e f u s e d to turn". The electoral s y s t e m a n d the electoral results
O n 21 August 1994 M e x i c a n s v o t e d to elect t h e i r President, t h e i r Senate (96 seats) a n d 300 d e p u t i e s o f t h e 500 seat C h a m b e r of D e p u t i e s (the l o w e r house). T h e y also v o t e d to e l e c t forty r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s to t h e A s s e m b l y o f R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the Federal District o f M e x i c o City, a non-legislative body. In t h e Presidential e l e c t i o n s (see Table 2) t h e c a n d i d a t e w i t h m o s t v o t e s wins, so t h e PRI's n a r r o w b u t a b s o l u t e m a j o r i t y w a s not n e c e s s a r y to w i n t h e m t h e p r e s i d e n c y , b u t e x p r e s s e d symbolically TABLE2. Presidential election Party
Total votes received
% of Total vote
% Valid vote
PRI (Zedillo) PAN (Diego) PRD (Cfirdenas) PT PVEM PFCRN PARM PPS PDM
17,333,931 9,221,474 5,901,324 975,246 330,322 301,508 195,077 166,547 99,2 i 5
48.77 25.94 16.60 2.74 0.93 0.85 0.55 0.47 0.28
50.18 26.90 17.08 2.82 0.96 0.87 0.56 0.49 0.29
N o t e s o n R e c e n t Elections
202
TABLE3. Federal deputies Party
Proportion
Deputies
PRI PAN PRD PT Other Total
50.28 25.77 16.71 2.65 4.53 99.94
277 18 5 0 0 300
TABLE 4. Senate results
Party
Seats
PRI PAN PRD
64 24 8
TABLE5. Assembly of Representatives for Mexico, DF Party
Proportion
Deputies
PRI PAN PRD PT PVEM PFCRN PPS PARM PDM Total
40.56 27.06 21.19 4.12 3.90 1.25 0.79 0.62 0.45 100.12
38 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
its c o n t i n u i n g d o m i n a n c e of this "one-party d o m i n a n t " system. The PAN's vote was the highest of its history, a n d may be a p p r o a c h i n g the critical mass w h i c h will make it a credible c o n t e n d e r for g o v e r n m e n t by the e n d of the century. The left-wing PRD, r u n n i n g for the first time u n d e r its n e w party label, m a d e a respectable s h o w i n g . T h e small r e m a i n d e r of the vote was distributed b e t w e e n a n u m b e r of left-wing parties, a traditional c o n s e r v a t i v e party (the PARM) a n d a very small rightw i n g party (the PDM). In the congressional elections ( w h e t h e r for Senate or the Chamber of Deputies) there are so-called "proportionality clauses" w h i c h systematically over-represent the majority party. In addition (though not relevant to this election) there is a "govemability clause" that makes it almost impossible for the PRI to lose control of congress, even if its vote were to dip b e l o w 35 p e r cent. Thus, even if the electoral process itself n o w appears fairer (or more "transparent" as they have it in Mexico), the electoral system is still heavily biased in favour of the PRI. As a result, the PRI's 50 plus per cent of the vote gave it 277 of the 300 seats up for election in the C h a m b e r of Deputies and 64 of the Senate's 96 seats (see Tables 3 and 4). Crucially, it n o w has the two-thirds majority in the Senate (lost in the 1988 elections) necessary to pass constitutional amendments.
Notes on Recent Elections
203
The inhabitants of the Federal District are the least "represented" of all Mexicans, having no equivalent (in M e x i c o ' s federal ,system) to an e l e c t e d g o v e r n o r and state assembly. Nonetheless, elections to the District's non-legislative Assembly of RepYesentatives are subject to the same "proportionality clauses", so that the PRI's 40 p e r c e n t of the vote ( c o m p a r e d to 50 p e r cent nationally) gave it total d o m i n a n c e of the c h a m b e r , w i t h 38 out o f 40 seats, w h e r e a s the PRDs 21 p e r c e n t gave it no representation w h a t s o e v e r (see Table 5). Overall, with an even l o w e r p e r c e n t a g e o f the vote than in 1988 the PRI achieved consistently higher levels o f congressional representation, in Senate, in the C h a m b e r of Deputies, and in t h e Assembly of Representatives. The electoral results s h o w e d almost no e v i d e n c e of split-ticket voting.
Concluding Remarks M t h o u g h t h e PRI r e c e i v e d r o u g h l y t h e s a m e p r o p o r t i o n o f the overall v o t e in 1994 as in 1988, its v o t e w a s s p r e a d m u c h m o r e e v e n l y across t h e c o u n t r y in 1994 t h a n in 1988. O n t h e o n e hand, t h e PRI's v o t e h e l d u p well in u r b a n areas (reflecting a successful and long-term c a m p a i g n strategy) a n d t h e s p r e a d b e t w e e n its rural a n d u r b a n v o t e w a s t h e smallest in 30 years ( b o t h v o t e s c o n s i s t e n t l y falling in the 45 to 55 p e r c e n t band). O n t h e other, t h e PRl's v o t e w a s s p r e a d e v e n l y across the differe n t r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y (so i r o n i n g o u t t h e highs and l o w s o f 1988). In this regard, a l t h o u g h t h e overall results s e e m to indicate an i n c i p i e n t tripartisan e l e c t o r a l l a n d s c a p e , t h e PRI mainly c o m p e t e d w i t h t h e PAN in t h e (loosely d e f i n e d ) n o r t h o f the c o u n t r y and mainly c o m p e t e d w i t h t h e PRD in its n e w bastion o f t h e s o u t h of the country. T h e PRD w a s h u r t b y t h e d e f e c t i o n o f t h e u r b a n middle-class v o t e r s it h a d w o n (in t h e form o f t h e FDN c o a l i t i o n ) in 1988. T h e main q u e s t i o n for t h e political system n o w is w h e t h e r t h e PRD will b e a l l o w e d to d e v e l o p into an institutionalized left-of-centre p a r t y ( w h i c h M e x i c o c e r t a i n l y n e e d s ) , o r w h e t h e r t h e PRI will m o v e to corral a n d e m a s c u l a t e it. T h e PAN r e c e i v e d s t r o n g s u p p o r t a m o n g s t y o u n g urban v o t e r s ( e s p e c i a l l y in t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n centres), and, a l t h o u g h it suffered defeats in its r e g i o n a l s t r o n g h o l d s o f C h i h u a h u a a n d Baja California, significantly i n c r e a s e d its c o n g r e s s i o n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . It will find it v e r y difficult to i m p r o v e on its p r e s e n t s h o w i n g w i t h o u t e x t e n d i n g its a p p e a l to p o o r v o t e r s and v o t e r s in rural areas, e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e in t h e s o u t h o f the c o u n t r y .
The Slovak Election o f September 1994 JOHN FITZMAURICE 6 6 r u e L o u i s Socquet, 1030 Brussels, B e l g i u m
This w a s t h e first e l e c t i o n since Slovakia b e c a m e i n d e p e n d e n t in J a n u a r y 1993. B e t w e e n 1990 a n d 1993, t h e Slovak National C o u n c i l w a s part o f t h e federal a r r a n g e m e n t s in t h e f o r m e r federal C z e c h o s l o v a k i a , o f w h i c h Slovakia w a s a part.