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The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey's electric energy demand
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Energy Policy 34 (2006) 3093–3103 www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey’s electric energy demand Omer Yukseka,, Murat Ihsan Komurcub, Ibrahim Yukselc, Kamil Kaygusuzd a
Civil Engineering Department, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey Prime Ministry Under Secretariat of Maritime Affairs Directory, District of Trabzon, Turkey c Technical Education Faculty, Structure Department, Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey d Chemistry Department, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey
b
Available online 18 July 2005
Abstract The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey’s renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey’s hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey’s small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey’s long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey’s hydro electric potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Turkey’s energy sources; Hydro and small hydro electric potential; Electric demand
1. Introduction Energy is considered to be a key player in the generation of wealth and also a significant component in economic development. This makes energy resources extremely significant for energy country in the world. In bringing energy needs and energy availability into balance, there are two main elements such as energy demand and energy supply. In this regard, every country should put efforts to attain such a balance and hence conduct research and development studies to develop its own energy conservation programs for the existing and new energy resources. In conjunction with this, there is an ongoing action for energy market reform in International Energy Agency (IEA) countries. So, energy Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 462 377 26 41; fax: +90 462 377 26 06. E-mail address: [email protected] (O. Yuksek).
0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.06.005
market reform in 1998–1999 focused primarily on the electricity sector and to a lesser extent on gas. Reform in both sectors offers strong potential gains in efficiency through the unbundling of production, transmission and distribution (Dincer, 1999, 2002). Sustainable development demands a sustainable supply of energy sources. One of the most important implications of this statement is as follows (Dincer, 2003): sustainable development in a society requires a supply of energy sources that, in a long term, is readily and sustainably available at reasonable cost and can be utilized for all required tasks without causing negative social effects. Supplies of such energy resources as fossil fuels are finite; other energy sources, including hydro power (HP), are generally considered renewable and therefore sustainable over the relatively long term. Turkey is situated at the meeting point of three continents (Asia, Europe and Africa) and stands as a
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bridge between Asia and Europe. The country is located in southeastern Europe and southwestern Asia. Its size is 779,452 km2. Turkey’s population is 70 million and 60% of the inhabitants of the country live in cities. The average annual income per capita is nearly 4000 US$ (DIE, 2004). Economic growth in recent years has been associated with the privatization of public enterprises. The macroeconomic performance was boosted by a growth in the energy sector. In 2004, a comprehensive study was carried out by various official organizations (Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, ETKB; State Planning Organization, DPT; Energy Market Regulatory Authority, EPDK; and Turkish Treasury, HM) to predict the long-term electric energy demand. The results of this study were published by a report entitled ‘‘Report of Turkey Long Term Electric Energy Demand’’ (RTLED, 2004). Various development and consumption scenarios were applied in the study. In this paper, the results of the aforementioned study are presented and the hydro electric power potential in meeting the demand is studied. Various studies were performed on Turkey’s energy status and HP capacity (Aktas, 1999; Hepbasli et al., 2001; Kaygusuz, 2002a; EIE, 2004; Bakir, 2005; Yuksek and Kaygusuz, 2005). In these and similar studies, the total HP capacity was generally dealt with and no study was carried out to predict the long-term energy demand and the role of HP in meeting this demand. In this study, however, the results of a study to predict Turkey’s longterm electric energy demand are presented, together with total HP and especially small hydro power (SHP) potential. Depending on the results of two case studies, which were carried out by a scientific committee including the first and the third authors of this study, it was also concluded that, Turkey’s HP and especially SHP capacity was more than that of predicted by Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EIE) and State Hydraulics Works (DSI) and this capacity could be easily and economically developed. By taking into account the predictions of long-term energy demand and by explaining two case studies carried out in the Eastern Black Sea Region, the main objectives of this study are threefold, namely (i) to evaluate quantitatively Turkey’s HP and especially SHP capacity, of which only 35% total capacity has been exploited, (ii) to emphasize the importance of HP as an cost effective and environmentally friend energy resource, and (iii) to show the way to policy makers of long-term energy strategies in Turkey.
2. Hydroelectric power Hydro-turbines convert water pressure into mechanical shaft power, which can be used to drive an
electricity generator, or other machinery. The power available is proportional to the product of pressure head and water discharge. Hydropower is the largest renewable resource used for electricity (Frey and Linke, 2002). It plays an essential role in many regions of the world with more than 150 countries generating hydroelectric power. A survey in 1997 by The International Journal on Hydropower & Dams found that hydro supplies at least 50% of national electricity production in 63 countries and at least 90% in 23 countries. About 10 countries obtain essentially all their commercial electricity from hydro, including Norway, several African nations, Bhutan and Paraguay. There is vast unexploited potential worldwide for new hydro plants, particularly in the developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa, while most of the best sites have already been developed in Europe and North America. There is also upgrading potential at existing schemes though any future hydro projects will, in general, have to satisfy stricter requirements both environmentally and economically than they have in the past (IHA et al., 2000; Bartle, 2002). It is expected that the world energy demand, and especially that for electricity, will increase greatly during the 21st century, not only because of demographic pressures, but also through an improvement in living standards in the less developed countries, which will represent 7 billion inhabitants in 2050 (78% of the total) (IEA, 2001). Consumption of primary energy will increase up to threefold by the middle of this century, and the increase will be even greater for electricity. In view of this situation, many sources of energy will be necessary, but for environmental reasons, a high priority should be the development of all technically feasible potential from clean renewable sources, especially hydropower. Theoretical, technically feasible, and economically feasible hydro electric potential by region in the world as well as in Turkey is presented in Table 1 (Herzog et al., 2004). As shown in this table, the world’s gross theoretical hydropower potential is about 40 000 TWh/ yr, of which about 14 000 TWh/yr is technically feasible for development and about 7000 TWh/yr is currently economically feasible. The biggest growth in hydro generation is expected in the developing countries where there is still a large potential for hydro development, while relatively little growth is expected in most OECD countries where more than 65% of the economic potential is already in use (Koch, 2002; IEA, 2002). Hydropower continues to be the most efficient way to generate electricity. Modern hydro turbines can convert as much as 90% of the available energy into electricity. The best fossil fuel plants are only about 50% efficient. Hydro resources are also widely distributed compared
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Table 1 Theoretical, technically and economically feasible hydro electric potential by region (Herzog et al., 2004) Region
Gross theoretical potential (TWh/yr)
Technically feasible potential (TWh/yr)
Economically feasible potential (TWh/yr)
Installed hydro capacity (GW)
Hydro power production (TWh/yr)
North America Latin America and Caribbean Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Centrally Planned Asia South Asia Pacific Asia Pacific OECD World total Turkey Turkey/World total (%)
5817 7533 3294 195 3258 304 3583 6511 3635 5520 1134 40784 435 1.07
1509 2868 1822 216 1235 171 1992 2159 948 814 211 13945 215 1.54
912 1199 809 128 770 128 1288 1302 103 142 184 6965 128 1.84
141.2 114.1 16.3 9.1 146.6 21.3 65.7 64.3 28.5 13.5 34.2 654.8 12.6 1.92
697 519 48 27 498 66 225 226 105 41 129 2581 45 1.74
with fossil and nuclear fuels and can help provide energy independence for countries without fossil fuel resources. Hydropower is a significant source of electricity worldwide and will likely continue to grow especially in the developing countries (Kaygusuz, 2004). While large dams have become much riskier investment, there still remains much unexploited potential for small hydro projects around the world. It is expected that, growth of hydroelectricity will continue but at a slower rate than that of the 70’s and 80’s. Thus, the fraction of hydroelectricity in the portfolio of primary sources of energy, which is today at 19%, is expected to decrease in the future (Herzog et al., 2004). Improvements and efficiency measures are needed in dam structures, turbines, generators, substations, transmission lines, and environmental mitigation technology if hydropower’s role as a clean renewable energy source is to continue to be supported (Bartle, 2002; IHA, 2003). In comparison with hydropower, thermal plants take less time to design, obtain approval, build and recover investment. However, they have higher operating costs, typically shorter operating lives (about 25 years), are important sources of air, water and soil pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG) and provide fewer opportunities for economic spin-offs. On the other hand, hydropower provides unique benefits, rarely found in other sources of energy. These benefits can be attributed to the electricity itself, or to side-benefits, often associated with reservoir development (Oud, 2002). The net environmental benefits of hydropower are far superior to fossil-based generation. In 1997, for example, it has been calculated that hydropower saved GHG emissions equivalent to all the cars on the planet (IHA et al., 2000).
While development of all the remaining hydroelectric potential could not hope to cover total future world demand for electricity, implementation of even half of this potential could thus have enormous environmental benefits in terms of avoided generation by fossil fuels. Carefully planned hydropower development can also make a vast contribution to improving living stands in the developing world, such as Turkey, where the greatest potential still exists. As the most important of the clean and renewable energy options, hydropower is often one of the many benefits of a multipurpose water resources development project. As hydro schemes are generally integrated within multipurpose development schemes, they can often help to subsidize other vital functions of a project. Typically, construction of a dam and its associated reservoir results in a number of benefits associated with human well-being, such as secure water supply, irrigation for food production and flood control, and societal benefits such as increased recreational opportunities, improved navigation, the development of fisheries, cottage industries, etc. This is not the case for any other source of energy (WCD, 2000).
3. Turkey’s hydroelectric power potential 3.1. A general view to Turkey’s energy status Because of social and economic development of the country, the demand for energy and particularly for electricity is growing rapidly in Turkey. The main indigenous energy resources are hydro, mainly in the eastern part of the country, and lignite. Turkey has no big oil and gas reserves. Almost all oil, natural gas (NG) and high quality coal are imported. It has a large
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potential for renewable energies. In Turkey, where there is no nuclear power, electricity is produced by thermal power plants (TPPs), consuming coal, lignite, NG, fuel oil and geothermal energy; and by hydro power plants (HPPs). Turkey’s geographic location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources. It is on the humid and warm climatic belt, which includes most of Europe, the near East and western Asia. As a developing country, Turkey’s population is estimated to be over 100 million by 2020 (DIE, 2004). Demographic projections as well as the growing gap between national energy demand and production raised concerns on the economical and environmental impacts of power generation based on Turkey’s national energy sources. Clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the entire world. This is primarily because renewable energy resources have some advantages when compared to fossil fuels. Turkey has to adopt new longterm energy strategies to reduce the share of fossil fuels in the energy consumption (Hepbasli et al., 2001). Meeting energy demand is of high importance in Turkey. But exploiting the country’s large energy efficiency potential is also vital. Air pollution is a significant problem and, as the government’s projections show, carbon emissions could rise sharply if current trends continue (Kaygusuz, 2002b). Turkey is striving to make good use of its geographic location as a transit country linking the oil- and gas-rich Caspian area to the Mediterranean and to the demand centers of the West. Several pipeline projects are under way. They could have a positive effect on the diversity and security of supply in many consuming countries. They could also help avoid further environmental strain on the maritime routes through the Bosporus. Several of these pipelines, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline and the ‘‘Blue Stream’’ gas pipeline under the Black Sea, are gradually nearing completion, but some additional attention to committing resources to these lines may be warranted (Kaygusuz, 2001; MENR, 2004). Hydropower energy and the surrounding seas are Turkey’s main potential sources of renewable energies. In addition, geothermal energy beneath the surface of the western Anatolia; wind and solar energy available at western, eastern, and middle Anatolia; and nuclear energy by abundant thorium and uranium ores lying throughout Anatolia and hydrogen potential accumulated at the submarine of Black Sea are the other potential renewable energy sources in Turkey. In this regard, the major areas of renewable energy research in Turkey are hydropower, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, photovoltaic energy, and new programs such as hydrogen energy, fuel cells, etc. (Kaygusuz, 2002a).
In 2001, the Turkish government began privatizing some of its electricity generating and distribution networks, and allowing for more private construction and ownership in the sector. Alternative energy campaigners are hoping that with the country having streamlined its investment regulations as well as suspended and launched investigations into many of the Energy Ministry’s former senior officials, the tide may be turning for the country’s alternative energy sector. 3.2. Hydroelectric power in Turkey Since hydropower have various economical, environmental and social and strategic advantages, Turkey’s hydropower potential will be discussed in the following sections. Some preliminary results of two case studies, located in the Eastern Black Sea Region, are also included in the paper. The annual average precipitation in Turkey is nearly 643 mm, corresponding to a volume of 500 km3. The average runoff coefficient is 0.37, and the annual runoff is 186 km3 (2400 m3/ha). Subtracting from this figure the estimated water rights of neighboring countries, minimum stream flow requirements for pollution control, aquatic life and navigation, and topographic and geologic constraints; the annual consumable water potential of 12 km3 should be added to this, bringing the total annual consumable potential to 107 km3 (Yuksek and Ucuncu, 1999). Turkey has rigorous plans for the development of its substantial hydropower potential. Schemes built on the concept of build-own-transfer are being encouraged strongly, and bilateral agreements have been signed with a number of countries to further international cooperation in hydropower development (Yuksek and Kaygusuz, 2005). Owing to Turkey’s regions, most of which are hilly, it can be possible to develop relatively higher heads without expensive civil engineering works, so that relatively smaller flows are required to develop for the desired power. In these cases, it may be possible to construct a relatively simple diversion structure and to obtain the highest drop by diverting flows at the top of a waterfall. There are intensive investigations to improve the small and large hydropower development in Turkey. For putting this aim into practice, some of small hydropower plants are still under construction. Turkey’s annual total gross, technically feasible and economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by General Directorate of State Hydraulics Works (DSI) are 435, 215 and 128 TWh, respectively. Thirtyfive percent of the economically feasible hydropower, total 45 155 GWh/yr is in operation, 8% (10 129 GWh/ yr) is under construction and 57% (72 339 GWh/yr) is being designed. Those are being designed are divided
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into seven sub-groups and are given in Fig. 1 as follows (EIE, 2004): 11 027 GWh/yr (9%) with final design ready, 4243 GWh/yr (3%) with final design under preparation, 23 183 GWh/yr (18%) with feasibility report ready, 5339 GWh/yr (4%) with feasibility report under preparation, 11 113 GWh/yr (9%) with master plan ready, 15 707 GWh/yr (12%) with preliminary report ready and 1727 GWh/yr (1%) with preliminary report under preparation. According to findings of a study, which was carried out by Bakir (2005), in which a new criterion was developed related to key concept of ‘‘the economical feasibility’’, by taking into consideration some undervalued and even ignored benefits of hydro plants and some overvalued benefits of TPPs; economically feasible hydropower potential goes up 188 TWh/yr, with an
15707 GWh (12 %) PREL.REP.READY
1727 GWh (1 %) PREL.REP.UND.PREP.
11113 GWh (9 %) MAS. PLAN READY
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increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Turkey’s hydropower potential according to DSI and the new developed criteria together with installed power values are given in Table 2. Taking into consideration the electric energy demand predictions (given in Section 4.3 and in Table 5) and the hydropower potential according to the new criteria (Table 2), it is obvious that, Turkey’s hydropower potential can meet nearly 33%, 38% and 46% of its electric energy demand in 2020, according to Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Therefore, the HP potential is a very important resource in meeting its demand for Turkey, which has to strongly depend on foreign energy sources. Moreover, in preparing the HP potential, many of SHP plants are not taken into consideration, even under preliminary level (the results of such two case studies are given in Section 3.3.3). By evaluating these resources, of which potential may be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, it is not difficult to claim that Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources.
45155 GWh (35 %) INOPARATION
3.3. Small hydro power 5339 GWh (4 %) FEAS. REP. UND. PREP.
23183 GWh (18 %) FEAS.REP.READY 10129 GWh (8 %) UNDER CONST. 4243 GWh (3 %) FIN. REP.UND.PREP.
11027 GWh (9 %) FINAL REP.READY
Fig. 1. Distribution of Turkey hydro power potential according to design level (EIE, 2004).
3.3.1. Introduction to small hydro power (SHP) The development of hydro-electricity in the 20th century was usually associated with the building of large dams. Hundreds of massive barriers of concrete, rock and earth were placed across river valleys world-wide to create huge artificial lakes. While they created a major, reliable power supply, plus irrigation and flood control benefits, the dams necessarily flooded large areas of fertile land and displaced many thousands of local
Table 2 Turkey’s annual hydropower potential according to DSI and new criteria (Bakir, 2005) Basin
Firat (Euphrates) Dicle (Tigris) Eastern Black Sea Eastern Meditt. Antalya Coruh Ceyhan Seyhan Kizilirmak Yesilirmak Western Black Sea Western Meditt. Aras Sakarya Susurluk Others (Total) Total
Gross pot. (GWh)
Potential according to DSI
Potential Acc. to New Criteria
Econ. Feasib. Pot. (GWh)
Econ. Feasib. Pot. (GWh)
Installed Power (MW)
Installed Power (MW)
84 122 48 706 48 478 27 445 23 079 22 601 22 163 20 875 19 552 18 685 17 914 13 595 13 114 11 335 10 573 30 744
39 375 17 375 11 474 5216 5355 10 933 4825 7853 6555 5494 2257 2628 2372 2461 1662 1788
10 345 5416 3257 1490 1537 3361 1515 2146 2245 1350 669 723 631 1175 544 546
46 267 24 353 24 239 10 978 9232 12 431 8865 9394 7821 8408 7166 5438 5246 3967 2643 1721
12 176 7610 6925 3137 2638 3825 2860 2609 2697 2213 2108 1511 1418 1984 881 507
432 981
127 623
36 950
188 169
55 099
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inhabitants. In many cases, rapid silting up of the dam has since reduced its productivity and lifetime. There are also numerous environmental problems that can result from such major interference with river flows (Paish, 2002). Small, mini and micro-hydro plants (usually defined as plants less than 10 MW, 2 MW and 100 kW, respectively) play a key role in many countries for rural electrification. Small-scale hydro is mainly ‘run of river,’ so does not involve the construction of large dams and reservoirs. In medium (5 moheado15 m) or high-head (head415 m) installations water is carried to the forebay by a small canal. Low-head installations (heado5 m) generally involve water entering the turbine almost directly from the weir. SHP is the main prospect for future hydro developments in Europe, where the large-scale opportunities have either been exploited already, or would now be considered environmentally unacceptable. Small hydro technology is extremely robust (systems can last for 50 years or more with little maintenance), also has the capacity to make a more immediate impact on the replacement of fossil fuels since, unlike other sources of renewable energy, it can generally produce some electricity on demand (at least at times of the year when an adequate flow of water is available) with no need for storage or backup systems. It is also in many cases cost competitive with fossil-fuel power stations, or for remote rural areas, diesel generated power (Kaygusuz, 2004). Small hydro (o10 MW) currently contributes over 40 GW of world capacity. The global small hydro potential is believed to be in excess of 100 GW. China alone has developed more than 15 GW, and plans to develop a further 10 GW in the current decade. Hydropower provides about 17% of EU electricity supply. Small hydro provides over 8 GW of capacity and there is an estimated 18 GW of further small hydro potential, including refurbishment projects. The European Commission have a target to increase small hydro capacity by 4500 MW (50%) by the year 2010. With positive environmental policies now being backed by favorable
tariffs for ‘green’ electricity, the industry believes that small hydro will have a strong resurgence in Europe in the next 10 years, after 20 years of decline (Paish, 2002). 3.3.2. Turkey’s small hydro power potential To date, there is still no internationally agreed definition of ‘small’ hydro; the upper limit varies between 2.5 and 25 MW. A maximum of 10 MW is the most widely accepted value worldwide, although the definition in China stands officially at 25 MW. In Turkey, the upper limit is accepted as 50 MW. The distribution of the HPPs, that are under design level, is presented in Table 3 according to their hydro capacity (EIE, 2004). As can be seen, 30.34% of all of the annual energy will be generated by SHP. There is 80 installed SHP in Turkey 5% of which with medium head and 95% with high head (Punys, 2004). Being generally a mountainous country with annual average precipitation 643 mm, corresponding to a volume of 500 km3, Turkey’s SHP potential is high. There is installed 80 SHP with 177 MW capacity. However, the remaining economically feasible potential is nearly 22 000 GWh/yr (EIE, 2004). 3.3.3. Focus on the Eastern Black Sea Basin Among 26 hydrological basins in Turkey, the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) has great advantages from the view point of SHP potential. Because, the annual average precipitation is the highest in the country going up to 2329 mm in Rize Province. In addition, the basin covers sharp valleys and there are a lot of steep streams with considerable discharges and heads (Ucuncu et al., 1994). A study is being carried out by EIE to evaluate energy potential of small streams in Turkey (EIE, 2004). The preliminary results of this study are given in Table 4 and Fig. 2. The preliminary results of only eight basins out of 26 basins in Turkey have been obtained yet and the other basins are being studied. As can be seen, 59 projects out of 132 (44.7%) projects are in EBSB and annual energy of EBSB projects comprises of 886.56 GWh (52.18%) out of 1698.86 GWh for all of
Table 3 Distribution of under design hydro power plants according to their hydro capacity (EIE, 2004) Classification (MW)
Number of HEPP
Total capacity (MW)
Total annual energy (GWh)
o5 5–10 10–50 50–100 100–250 250–500 500–1000 41000
139 79 186 54 36 11 3 1
312 548 4595 3824 5527 3500 1791 1200
1568 2135 18 244 13 524 18 179 11 657 3199 3833
Total
509
21 297
72 339
Percentage of total annual energy 2.17 2.95 25.22 18.70 25.13 16.11 4.42 5.30 100
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the projects. The potential and potential percentage of SHP projects with various intervals of coefficient of profitability (CP) are also given in Table 4. It is also obvious that, most of (81%) the projects in EBSB are profitable with CP41. The profitable projects in EBSB cover 56.4% of all of the profitable projects discussed in this study. Thirteen projects in EBSB are being studied by DSI and are not covered in this study. According to tables presented by EIE (EIE, 2004), there are 166 projects being studied with capacity of 9742 MW and annual energy potential of 33 793 GWh. Seventy-three projects with 8644 MW and 29 375 GWh/ yr, are planned with various kinds of dams and remaining 93 projects with 1098 MW and 4418 GWh/ yr are planned as ‘‘run of river’’, without storage and dams. Within the run of water projects, 47 projects (50.5%) with 149.71 MW (13.6%) capacity and 768.41 GWh/yr (17.3%) will be made in EBSB. In addition to the above considerations, it should be emphasized that, there are more SHP potential to be A EGE. (1.2 %) MID. MEDIT. (16.39 %)
WEST MED T. (6.58 %)
EAST. BL. SEA (52.18 %)
SUSURLUK (6.51 %)
WEST BL. SEA (6.41 %)
GED Z (9.78 %) B. MEN. (0.95 %)
Fig. 2. Percentage of energy potentials of the studied SHP projects by EIE (EIE, 2004).
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studied in Turkey, and especially in EBSB. In the following, brief results of two case studies, carried out in the EBSB, are summarized. None of these projects are taken into consideration in the calculation of Turkey’s HP potential and both of them are very economical projects. One of the projects was carried out in Rize—IkizdereRuzgarli Basin. A feasibility report was prepared (Onsoy et al., 2004a) for a HPP in which water is being diverted by a weir and no storage dam is necessary. Design flow discharge of the stream is 2.74 m3/s and net head is 184.5 m, resulting in 4 MW hydropower and 8.8 GWh/yr electric energy. This plant will be operated by private sector by build-own-operate system. The other project was carried out in Rize Municipality Domestic Water Facilities. A preliminary report was prepared (Onsoy et al., 2004b) for a HPP. This is a complicated project, which comprises connecting two streams, generating HP energy, water flowing in a pipe, at the downstream of the pipeline again generating HP and letting the domestic water to flow where it will be used. It was predicted that totally 20 GWh/yr electric energy would be obtained, without creating any negative effects on the quality and quantity of the drinking water. Since most of the facilities are already built, the construction cost will be minimum compared to newbuilt plants. Similar to the above two projects, various local projects may be easily and economically developed to improve Turkey’s electric energy potential and therefore the economy. Many of the SHP projects are under investigation and the preliminary reports of some of them are either under preparation or ready. By enlarging SHP potential, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be improved by constructing various kinds of structures (weirs, canals, etc) and thus by diminishing unemployment and by providing cheaper electricity for domestic usage (lighting, heating, using electronic apparatus etc). SHP structures will also diminish
Table 4 Preliminary results of studied SHP projects by EIE (EIE, 2004) Basin
East. Black Sea Mid Mediter. Gediz West. Mediter. Susurluk Wes.Black Sea Aegean B. Menderes
Num. of Project
59 20 7 9 15 15 5 2
Capacity (MW)
157.75 69.09 41.76 23.51 23.74 21.90 4.76 3.38
Annual Energy Potential (GWh)
886.56 278.52 166.20 111.78 110.55 108.86 20.33 16.06
Potential (Percentage) of Projects According to Coefficient of Profitability (CP) CP41
1oCPo0:7
CPo0:7
718 260 116 99 23 40 0 16
130 10 27 8 77 47 14 0
38 8 23 4 11 22 7 0
(81%) (94%) (70%) (89%) (21%) (37%) (0%) (100%)
(15%) (3%) (16%) (7%) (69%) (43%) (67%) (0%)
(4%) (3%) (14%) (4%) (10%) (20%) (33%) (0%)
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deforestation, because nearly all of the rural people have used wood in heating.
4. Prediction of long-term electric energy demand 4.1. Description of MAED model A demand prediction model, called ‘‘Model for Assessment of Energy Demand’’ (MAED) was used to predict Turkey’s long-term electric energy demand. This model, prepared by International Atom Energy Agency, is a simulation model which evaluate mid- and longterm energy demands. The input list of the model comprises various technical and political parameters; such as variation in the social needs of the people, development and industrialization policy of the country and improvement in transportation and technology, etc. The total energy demand is given as demand in agriculture, industry, transportation, housing and services. MAED evaluates future energy needs based on medium long-term scenarios of socioeconomic, technological and demographic development in a country or region. MAED models how energy demands are influenced, or driven, by a variety of social, economic and technological factors. Energy demand is disaggregated into a large number of end-use categories, each one corresponding to a given service or to production of a certain good. The influence of each of the social, economic and technological driving factors from a given scenario is estimated. These are combined for an overall picture of future energy demand growth. MAED has widely been used in the world and in Turkey (UN, 2002).
The electric energy demand varies according to various parameters. The main parameters to affect the energy demand are: Gross National Product (GNP); population and demographic variations; development in housing, industry, agriculture and transportation sectors; income per capita; climatic conditions; employment, technological development, etc. 4.2. Execution of MAED model In order to execute the MAED model, a base year should be determined and the model should be verified using energy demand data measured for some years. In Turkey’s application, the base year was 1990 and the model was verified in 1995 and 2000; and then executed for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Turkey’s annual electric energy consumption in 1979 was 24 TWh and reached 130 TWh in 2001. Three kinds of scenario were applied in the model: Scenario 1 depends on the GNP values of State Planning Organization (DPT) in 8 May 2002. GNP values were modified by DPT in 30 April 2004 and Scenario 2 depends on the modified GNP values. Scenario 3 depends on production industry prediction values different from Scenario 2. The other parameters are the same of Scenario 2. The details of the scenarios and execution of the model in Turkey may be found in ‘‘Report of Turkey Long Term Electric Energy Demand’’ (RTLED, 2004). 4.3. Results of MAED model MAED Model was executed for the above three scenarios and Turkey’s annual electric energy demand
Table 5 Turkey’s annual electric energy demand values (RTLED, 2004) Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
11.4 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6
168 262 185 600 204 150 224 300 246 150 269 842 295 800 323 200 351 300 380 000 409 531 439 100 470 175 501 950 535 425 570 521
8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.4
163 191 176 400 190 700 206 400 223 500 242 021 262 000 283 500 306 100 330 300 356 202 383 000 410 700 439 600 469 500 499 489
5.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8
159 399 169 520 180 250 191 680 203 830 216 750 230 400 244 950 260 400 276 800 294 563 313 600 334 300 356 500 380 500 406 530
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600000 550000
ELECTRICITY ENERGY DEMAND (GWh)
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YEARS
Fig. 3. Results of MAED model according to three scenarios (RTLED, 2004).
values were predicted from 2004 to 2020. The results are given in Table 5 and Fig. 3 (RTLED, 2004). Annual increase ratios are also given in Table 5. As can be seen in Table 5, annual average increase ratio values are 8.66%, 7.76% and 6.38% for the Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
5. Results and discussion In this paper, the role of Turkey’s hydroelectric power in meeting the long-term electric energy demand is researched. Firstly, Turkey’s hydro and especially small hydro electric capacity is studied, and then, the results of a study, which has been carried out to predict the Turkey’s long-term electric energy demand, are presented. Because of social and economic development of the country, the demand for energy and particularly for electricity is growing rapidly in Turkey. Depending on the applied scenario, Turkey’s annual electric energy demand in 2010, 2015 and 2020 varies between 217 and 270 TWh, 294 and 410 TWh, and 407 and 571 TWh, respectively. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and NG reserves, Turkey is not a rich country, but has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity. Turkey must base its energy strategy on developing the whole hydroelectric
potential as soon as possible. Turkey’s main indigenous energy resources are hydro and almost all oil, NG and high quality coal are imported. Therefore, in order to avoid foreign dependency both in sources and funds, Turkey must discover new and renewable energy resources. Renewable sources of power other than hydro (solar, wind, etc) are valuable options. But, even if major efforts were made to develop them, they will not be able to produce large amounts of energy in the coming decades. In assessing life cycle costs, hydropower consistently compares favorably with virtually all other forms of energy generation. Hydropower provides unique economical, environmental and social benefits, rarely found in other sources of energy development. The net environmental benefits of hydropower are far superior to fossil-based generation. Turkey’s annual total gross, technically feasible and economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by DSI are 435, 215 and 128 TWh, respectively. However, according to findings of another study, in which a new criterion is developed related to key concept of the economical feasibility, economically feasible hydropower potential goes up 188 TWh/yr, with an increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Taking into consideration the electric energy demand predictions and the hydropower potential according to the new criteria, it can be easily predicted that, Turkey’s
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hydropower potential can meet nearly 33%, 38% and 46% of its electric energy demand in 2020, according to Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Moreover, in these calculations, many of SHP plants are not taken into consideration. By evaluating these resources, of which potential may be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, it is obvious that, Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources. The findings of two case projects strongly support this opinion. SHP is especially very important in the Eastern Black Sea Region, which has abundant SHP capacity due to its meteorological and topographic properties, and this potential can be easily and economically developed. By doing this, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be significantly improved. The hydropower industry is closely linked to both water management and renewable energy production, and so has a unique role to play in contributing to sustainable development in a world, where billions of people lack access to safe drinking water and adequate energy supplies. Globally, approximately 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and about 1.1 billion are without adequate water supply. However, resources for hydropower development are widely spread around the world. Potential exists in about 150 countries, and about 70% of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed-mostly in developing countries, such as Turkey, where the needs are most urgent. Hydropower is a proven and well-advanced technology, with more than a century of experience. Modern power plants provide the most efficient energy conversion process (490%). The production of peak load energy from hydro allows for the best use to be made of baseload power from other less flexible electricity sources. As part of a multipurpose scheme, hydro can help to subsidize other important functions such as irrigation water supply, navigation improvements and recreation facilities.
6. Conclusions The following concluding remarks may be drawn from this study:
Turkey’s main indigenous energy resources are hydro and lignite and it has no big oil and gas reserves. Since almost all oil, NG and high quality coal are imported, Turkey has to discover new and renewable energy resources. Renewable sources of power other than hydro are valuable options. However, they do not seem to be able to produce large amounts of energy in the coming decades. In assessing life cycle costs, hydropower consistently compares favorably with virtually all other forms of energy generation.
Turkey’s annual total economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by DSI is 128 TWh. However, according to findings of another study, this figure goes up to 188 TWh/yr, with an increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Turkey’s annual electric energy demand in 2010, 2015 and 2020 is predicted that it goes up to 270 TWh, 410 TWh and 571 TWh, respectively. Turkey’s hydropower potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020. By evaluating SHP plants, of which potential can be estimated to be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources. The findings of two case projects strongly support this opinion. By enlarging SHP potential, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be improved by constructing various kinds of structures and thus by diminishing unemployment and by providing cheaper electricity for domestic usage. Therefore, the Turkish Government and policy makers should encourage and support hydropower and especially small hydropower.
References Aktas, Z., 1999. Energy for Turkey and the rest of the Western World in the next decades. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC http://www.csis.org. Bakir, N.N., 2005. Turkey’s hydropower potential and review of electricity generation policies from EU perspective. http://www.ere.com.tr Bartle, A., 2002. Hydropower potential and development activities. Energy Policy 30, 1231–1239. DIE (State Statistics Institute), 2004. Statistics of Turkey in 2003. DIE, Turkey. Dincer, I., 1999. Environmental impacts of energy. Energy Policy 27, 845–854. Dincer, I., 2002. The role of exergy in energy policy making. Energy Policy 30, 137–149. Dincer, I., 2003. On energy conservation policies and implementation practices. International Journal of Energy Research 27, 687–702. EIE (Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration), 2004. Hydro Electric Power Plant Projects Carried out by EIE, Ankara, Turkey, pp. 1–45 (in Turkish). Frey, G.W., Linke, D.J., 2002. Hydropower as a renewable and sustainable energy resource meeting global energy challenges in a reasonable way. Energy Policy 30, 1261–1265. Hepbasli, A., Ozdamar, A., Ozalp, N., 2001. Present status and potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey. Energy Sources 23, 631–648. Herzog, A.V., Lipman, T.E, Kammen, D.M., 2004. Renewable energy sources. http://www.eolss.com IEA (International Energy Agency), 2001. Energy policies of IEA Countries, Turkey 2001 Review. IEA/OECD, Paris. IEA (International Energy Agency), 2002. World Energy Outlook 2002. IEA/OECD, Paris. IHA (International Hydropower Association), ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams), IAHTP IEA (Implementing Agreement on Hydropower and Programmes, IEA), CHA (Canadian Hydropower Association), 2000. Hydropower and World’s Energy Future, pp. 1–14.
ARTICLE IN PRESS O. Yuksek et al. / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 3093–3103 IHA (International Hydropower Association), 2003. The role of hydropower in sustainable development, IHA White Paper, February 2003. Kaygusuz, K., 2001. Hydropower and biomass as renewable energy sources in Turkey. Energy Sources 23, 775–799. Kaygusuz, K., 2002a. Renewable and sustainable energy use in Turkey: a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 6 (4), 339–366. Kaygusuz, K., 2002b. Environmental impacts of energy utilization and renewable energy policies in Turkey. Energy Policy 30, 689–698. Kaygusuz, K., 2004. Hydropower and the World’s Energy Future. Energy Sources 26, 215–224. Koch, F.H., 2002. Hydropower the politics of water and energy: introduction and overview. Energy Policy 30, 1207–1213. MENR (Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources), 2004. Energy Statistics of Turkey. http://www.energy.gov.tr Onsoy, H., Yuksek, O., Yuksel, I., 2004a. Feasibility Report of Rize— Ikizdere—Ruzgarlı HEPP. KTU Civil Engineering Department, Trabzon, Turkey, pp. 1–131 (in Turkish). Onsoy, H., Yuksek, O., Yuksel, I., 2004b. Preliminary Report of Rize Municipality Domestic Water Facilities. KTU Civil Engineering Department, Trabzon, Turkey, pp. 1–4 (in Turkish). Oud, E., 2002. The evolving context for hydropower development. Energy Policy 30, 1215–1223.
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Paish, O., 2002. Small hydro power: technology and current status. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 6 (6), 537–556. Punys, P., 2004. Small hydro power in the New EU Member States. Hidroenergia 04. Falkenberg, Sweden. RTLED (Report of Turkey Long Term Electric Energy Demand), 2004. Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, pp. 1–81 (in Turkish). Ucuncu, O., Onsoy, H., Yuksek, O., 1994. A study on the environmental effects of 20 June 1990 flood in Trabzon and its neighborhood, Turkey. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on River Flood Hydraulics. York, England, 22–25 March 1994, pp. 501–512. UN (United Nations), 2002. Consolidated Report of Energy Activities, Ad Hoc Inter-Agency Task Force on Energy, 6 February 2002, http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/iaenr.htm WCD (World Commission on Dams), 2000. Dams and Development—A New Framework for Decision making. Earthscan, London. Yuksek, O., Kaygusuz, K., 2005. Small hydropower plants as a renewable energy source. Energy Sources, accepted for publication. Yuksek, O., Ucuncu, O., 1999. Basic Hydrology with Solved Problems. Karadeniz Technical University Civil Engineering Department, Trabzon, Turkey, pp. 1–142 (in Turkish).
Energy Policy 34 (2006) 3093–3103 www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey’s electric energy demand Omer Yukseka,, Murat Ihsan Komurcub, Ibrahim Yukselc, Kamil Kaygusuzd a
Civil Engineering Department, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey Prime Ministry Under Secretariat of Maritime Affairs Directory, District of Trabzon, Turkey c Technical Education Faculty, Structure Department, Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey d Chemistry Department, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey
b
Available online 18 July 2005
Abstract The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey’s renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey’s hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey’s small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey’s long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey’s hydro electric potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Turkey’s energy sources; Hydro and small hydro electric potential; Electric demand
1. Introduction Energy is considered to be a key player in the generation of wealth and also a significant component in economic development. This makes energy resources extremely significant for energy country in the world. In bringing energy needs and energy availability into balance, there are two main elements such as energy demand and energy supply. In this regard, every country should put efforts to attain such a balance and hence conduct research and development studies to develop its own energy conservation programs for the existing and new energy resources. In conjunction with this, there is an ongoing action for energy market reform in International Energy Agency (IEA) countries. So, energy Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 462 377 26 41; fax: +90 462 377 26 06. E-mail address: [email protected] (O. Yuksek).
0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.06.005
market reform in 1998–1999 focused primarily on the electricity sector and to a lesser extent on gas. Reform in both sectors offers strong potential gains in efficiency through the unbundling of production, transmission and distribution (Dincer, 1999, 2002). Sustainable development demands a sustainable supply of energy sources. One of the most important implications of this statement is as follows (Dincer, 2003): sustainable development in a society requires a supply of energy sources that, in a long term, is readily and sustainably available at reasonable cost and can be utilized for all required tasks without causing negative social effects. Supplies of such energy resources as fossil fuels are finite; other energy sources, including hydro power (HP), are generally considered renewable and therefore sustainable over the relatively long term. Turkey is situated at the meeting point of three continents (Asia, Europe and Africa) and stands as a
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bridge between Asia and Europe. The country is located in southeastern Europe and southwestern Asia. Its size is 779,452 km2. Turkey’s population is 70 million and 60% of the inhabitants of the country live in cities. The average annual income per capita is nearly 4000 US$ (DIE, 2004). Economic growth in recent years has been associated with the privatization of public enterprises. The macroeconomic performance was boosted by a growth in the energy sector. In 2004, a comprehensive study was carried out by various official organizations (Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, ETKB; State Planning Organization, DPT; Energy Market Regulatory Authority, EPDK; and Turkish Treasury, HM) to predict the long-term electric energy demand. The results of this study were published by a report entitled ‘‘Report of Turkey Long Term Electric Energy Demand’’ (RTLED, 2004). Various development and consumption scenarios were applied in the study. In this paper, the results of the aforementioned study are presented and the hydro electric power potential in meeting the demand is studied. Various studies were performed on Turkey’s energy status and HP capacity (Aktas, 1999; Hepbasli et al., 2001; Kaygusuz, 2002a; EIE, 2004; Bakir, 2005; Yuksek and Kaygusuz, 2005). In these and similar studies, the total HP capacity was generally dealt with and no study was carried out to predict the long-term energy demand and the role of HP in meeting this demand. In this study, however, the results of a study to predict Turkey’s longterm electric energy demand are presented, together with total HP and especially small hydro power (SHP) potential. Depending on the results of two case studies, which were carried out by a scientific committee including the first and the third authors of this study, it was also concluded that, Turkey’s HP and especially SHP capacity was more than that of predicted by Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EIE) and State Hydraulics Works (DSI) and this capacity could be easily and economically developed. By taking into account the predictions of long-term energy demand and by explaining two case studies carried out in the Eastern Black Sea Region, the main objectives of this study are threefold, namely (i) to evaluate quantitatively Turkey’s HP and especially SHP capacity, of which only 35% total capacity has been exploited, (ii) to emphasize the importance of HP as an cost effective and environmentally friend energy resource, and (iii) to show the way to policy makers of long-term energy strategies in Turkey.
2. Hydroelectric power Hydro-turbines convert water pressure into mechanical shaft power, which can be used to drive an
electricity generator, or other machinery. The power available is proportional to the product of pressure head and water discharge. Hydropower is the largest renewable resource used for electricity (Frey and Linke, 2002). It plays an essential role in many regions of the world with more than 150 countries generating hydroelectric power. A survey in 1997 by The International Journal on Hydropower & Dams found that hydro supplies at least 50% of national electricity production in 63 countries and at least 90% in 23 countries. About 10 countries obtain essentially all their commercial electricity from hydro, including Norway, several African nations, Bhutan and Paraguay. There is vast unexploited potential worldwide for new hydro plants, particularly in the developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa, while most of the best sites have already been developed in Europe and North America. There is also upgrading potential at existing schemes though any future hydro projects will, in general, have to satisfy stricter requirements both environmentally and economically than they have in the past (IHA et al., 2000; Bartle, 2002). It is expected that the world energy demand, and especially that for electricity, will increase greatly during the 21st century, not only because of demographic pressures, but also through an improvement in living standards in the less developed countries, which will represent 7 billion inhabitants in 2050 (78% of the total) (IEA, 2001). Consumption of primary energy will increase up to threefold by the middle of this century, and the increase will be even greater for electricity. In view of this situation, many sources of energy will be necessary, but for environmental reasons, a high priority should be the development of all technically feasible potential from clean renewable sources, especially hydropower. Theoretical, technically feasible, and economically feasible hydro electric potential by region in the world as well as in Turkey is presented in Table 1 (Herzog et al., 2004). As shown in this table, the world’s gross theoretical hydropower potential is about 40 000 TWh/ yr, of which about 14 000 TWh/yr is technically feasible for development and about 7000 TWh/yr is currently economically feasible. The biggest growth in hydro generation is expected in the developing countries where there is still a large potential for hydro development, while relatively little growth is expected in most OECD countries where more than 65% of the economic potential is already in use (Koch, 2002; IEA, 2002). Hydropower continues to be the most efficient way to generate electricity. Modern hydro turbines can convert as much as 90% of the available energy into electricity. The best fossil fuel plants are only about 50% efficient. Hydro resources are also widely distributed compared
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Table 1 Theoretical, technically and economically feasible hydro electric potential by region (Herzog et al., 2004) Region
Gross theoretical potential (TWh/yr)
Technically feasible potential (TWh/yr)
Economically feasible potential (TWh/yr)
Installed hydro capacity (GW)
Hydro power production (TWh/yr)
North America Latin America and Caribbean Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Centrally Planned Asia South Asia Pacific Asia Pacific OECD World total Turkey Turkey/World total (%)
5817 7533 3294 195 3258 304 3583 6511 3635 5520 1134 40784 435 1.07
1509 2868 1822 216 1235 171 1992 2159 948 814 211 13945 215 1.54
912 1199 809 128 770 128 1288 1302 103 142 184 6965 128 1.84
141.2 114.1 16.3 9.1 146.6 21.3 65.7 64.3 28.5 13.5 34.2 654.8 12.6 1.92
697 519 48 27 498 66 225 226 105 41 129 2581 45 1.74
with fossil and nuclear fuels and can help provide energy independence for countries without fossil fuel resources. Hydropower is a significant source of electricity worldwide and will likely continue to grow especially in the developing countries (Kaygusuz, 2004). While large dams have become much riskier investment, there still remains much unexploited potential for small hydro projects around the world. It is expected that, growth of hydroelectricity will continue but at a slower rate than that of the 70’s and 80’s. Thus, the fraction of hydroelectricity in the portfolio of primary sources of energy, which is today at 19%, is expected to decrease in the future (Herzog et al., 2004). Improvements and efficiency measures are needed in dam structures, turbines, generators, substations, transmission lines, and environmental mitigation technology if hydropower’s role as a clean renewable energy source is to continue to be supported (Bartle, 2002; IHA, 2003). In comparison with hydropower, thermal plants take less time to design, obtain approval, build and recover investment. However, they have higher operating costs, typically shorter operating lives (about 25 years), are important sources of air, water and soil pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG) and provide fewer opportunities for economic spin-offs. On the other hand, hydropower provides unique benefits, rarely found in other sources of energy. These benefits can be attributed to the electricity itself, or to side-benefits, often associated with reservoir development (Oud, 2002). The net environmental benefits of hydropower are far superior to fossil-based generation. In 1997, for example, it has been calculated that hydropower saved GHG emissions equivalent to all the cars on the planet (IHA et al., 2000).
While development of all the remaining hydroelectric potential could not hope to cover total future world demand for electricity, implementation of even half of this potential could thus have enormous environmental benefits in terms of avoided generation by fossil fuels. Carefully planned hydropower development can also make a vast contribution to improving living stands in the developing world, such as Turkey, where the greatest potential still exists. As the most important of the clean and renewable energy options, hydropower is often one of the many benefits of a multipurpose water resources development project. As hydro schemes are generally integrated within multipurpose development schemes, they can often help to subsidize other vital functions of a project. Typically, construction of a dam and its associated reservoir results in a number of benefits associated with human well-being, such as secure water supply, irrigation for food production and flood control, and societal benefits such as increased recreational opportunities, improved navigation, the development of fisheries, cottage industries, etc. This is not the case for any other source of energy (WCD, 2000).
3. Turkey’s hydroelectric power potential 3.1. A general view to Turkey’s energy status Because of social and economic development of the country, the demand for energy and particularly for electricity is growing rapidly in Turkey. The main indigenous energy resources are hydro, mainly in the eastern part of the country, and lignite. Turkey has no big oil and gas reserves. Almost all oil, natural gas (NG) and high quality coal are imported. It has a large
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potential for renewable energies. In Turkey, where there is no nuclear power, electricity is produced by thermal power plants (TPPs), consuming coal, lignite, NG, fuel oil and geothermal energy; and by hydro power plants (HPPs). Turkey’s geographic location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources. It is on the humid and warm climatic belt, which includes most of Europe, the near East and western Asia. As a developing country, Turkey’s population is estimated to be over 100 million by 2020 (DIE, 2004). Demographic projections as well as the growing gap between national energy demand and production raised concerns on the economical and environmental impacts of power generation based on Turkey’s national energy sources. Clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the entire world. This is primarily because renewable energy resources have some advantages when compared to fossil fuels. Turkey has to adopt new longterm energy strategies to reduce the share of fossil fuels in the energy consumption (Hepbasli et al., 2001). Meeting energy demand is of high importance in Turkey. But exploiting the country’s large energy efficiency potential is also vital. Air pollution is a significant problem and, as the government’s projections show, carbon emissions could rise sharply if current trends continue (Kaygusuz, 2002b). Turkey is striving to make good use of its geographic location as a transit country linking the oil- and gas-rich Caspian area to the Mediterranean and to the demand centers of the West. Several pipeline projects are under way. They could have a positive effect on the diversity and security of supply in many consuming countries. They could also help avoid further environmental strain on the maritime routes through the Bosporus. Several of these pipelines, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline and the ‘‘Blue Stream’’ gas pipeline under the Black Sea, are gradually nearing completion, but some additional attention to committing resources to these lines may be warranted (Kaygusuz, 2001; MENR, 2004). Hydropower energy and the surrounding seas are Turkey’s main potential sources of renewable energies. In addition, geothermal energy beneath the surface of the western Anatolia; wind and solar energy available at western, eastern, and middle Anatolia; and nuclear energy by abundant thorium and uranium ores lying throughout Anatolia and hydrogen potential accumulated at the submarine of Black Sea are the other potential renewable energy sources in Turkey. In this regard, the major areas of renewable energy research in Turkey are hydropower, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, photovoltaic energy, and new programs such as hydrogen energy, fuel cells, etc. (Kaygusuz, 2002a).
In 2001, the Turkish government began privatizing some of its electricity generating and distribution networks, and allowing for more private construction and ownership in the sector. Alternative energy campaigners are hoping that with the country having streamlined its investment regulations as well as suspended and launched investigations into many of the Energy Ministry’s former senior officials, the tide may be turning for the country’s alternative energy sector. 3.2. Hydroelectric power in Turkey Since hydropower have various economical, environmental and social and strategic advantages, Turkey’s hydropower potential will be discussed in the following sections. Some preliminary results of two case studies, located in the Eastern Black Sea Region, are also included in the paper. The annual average precipitation in Turkey is nearly 643 mm, corresponding to a volume of 500 km3. The average runoff coefficient is 0.37, and the annual runoff is 186 km3 (2400 m3/ha). Subtracting from this figure the estimated water rights of neighboring countries, minimum stream flow requirements for pollution control, aquatic life and navigation, and topographic and geologic constraints; the annual consumable water potential of 12 km3 should be added to this, bringing the total annual consumable potential to 107 km3 (Yuksek and Ucuncu, 1999). Turkey has rigorous plans for the development of its substantial hydropower potential. Schemes built on the concept of build-own-transfer are being encouraged strongly, and bilateral agreements have been signed with a number of countries to further international cooperation in hydropower development (Yuksek and Kaygusuz, 2005). Owing to Turkey’s regions, most of which are hilly, it can be possible to develop relatively higher heads without expensive civil engineering works, so that relatively smaller flows are required to develop for the desired power. In these cases, it may be possible to construct a relatively simple diversion structure and to obtain the highest drop by diverting flows at the top of a waterfall. There are intensive investigations to improve the small and large hydropower development in Turkey. For putting this aim into practice, some of small hydropower plants are still under construction. Turkey’s annual total gross, technically feasible and economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by General Directorate of State Hydraulics Works (DSI) are 435, 215 and 128 TWh, respectively. Thirtyfive percent of the economically feasible hydropower, total 45 155 GWh/yr is in operation, 8% (10 129 GWh/ yr) is under construction and 57% (72 339 GWh/yr) is being designed. Those are being designed are divided
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into seven sub-groups and are given in Fig. 1 as follows (EIE, 2004): 11 027 GWh/yr (9%) with final design ready, 4243 GWh/yr (3%) with final design under preparation, 23 183 GWh/yr (18%) with feasibility report ready, 5339 GWh/yr (4%) with feasibility report under preparation, 11 113 GWh/yr (9%) with master plan ready, 15 707 GWh/yr (12%) with preliminary report ready and 1727 GWh/yr (1%) with preliminary report under preparation. According to findings of a study, which was carried out by Bakir (2005), in which a new criterion was developed related to key concept of ‘‘the economical feasibility’’, by taking into consideration some undervalued and even ignored benefits of hydro plants and some overvalued benefits of TPPs; economically feasible hydropower potential goes up 188 TWh/yr, with an
15707 GWh (12 %) PREL.REP.READY
1727 GWh (1 %) PREL.REP.UND.PREP.
11113 GWh (9 %) MAS. PLAN READY
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increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Turkey’s hydropower potential according to DSI and the new developed criteria together with installed power values are given in Table 2. Taking into consideration the electric energy demand predictions (given in Section 4.3 and in Table 5) and the hydropower potential according to the new criteria (Table 2), it is obvious that, Turkey’s hydropower potential can meet nearly 33%, 38% and 46% of its electric energy demand in 2020, according to Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Therefore, the HP potential is a very important resource in meeting its demand for Turkey, which has to strongly depend on foreign energy sources. Moreover, in preparing the HP potential, many of SHP plants are not taken into consideration, even under preliminary level (the results of such two case studies are given in Section 3.3.3). By evaluating these resources, of which potential may be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, it is not difficult to claim that Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources.
45155 GWh (35 %) INOPARATION
3.3. Small hydro power 5339 GWh (4 %) FEAS. REP. UND. PREP.
23183 GWh (18 %) FEAS.REP.READY 10129 GWh (8 %) UNDER CONST. 4243 GWh (3 %) FIN. REP.UND.PREP.
11027 GWh (9 %) FINAL REP.READY
Fig. 1. Distribution of Turkey hydro power potential according to design level (EIE, 2004).
3.3.1. Introduction to small hydro power (SHP) The development of hydro-electricity in the 20th century was usually associated with the building of large dams. Hundreds of massive barriers of concrete, rock and earth were placed across river valleys world-wide to create huge artificial lakes. While they created a major, reliable power supply, plus irrigation and flood control benefits, the dams necessarily flooded large areas of fertile land and displaced many thousands of local
Table 2 Turkey’s annual hydropower potential according to DSI and new criteria (Bakir, 2005) Basin
Firat (Euphrates) Dicle (Tigris) Eastern Black Sea Eastern Meditt. Antalya Coruh Ceyhan Seyhan Kizilirmak Yesilirmak Western Black Sea Western Meditt. Aras Sakarya Susurluk Others (Total) Total
Gross pot. (GWh)
Potential according to DSI
Potential Acc. to New Criteria
Econ. Feasib. Pot. (GWh)
Econ. Feasib. Pot. (GWh)
Installed Power (MW)
Installed Power (MW)
84 122 48 706 48 478 27 445 23 079 22 601 22 163 20 875 19 552 18 685 17 914 13 595 13 114 11 335 10 573 30 744
39 375 17 375 11 474 5216 5355 10 933 4825 7853 6555 5494 2257 2628 2372 2461 1662 1788
10 345 5416 3257 1490 1537 3361 1515 2146 2245 1350 669 723 631 1175 544 546
46 267 24 353 24 239 10 978 9232 12 431 8865 9394 7821 8408 7166 5438 5246 3967 2643 1721
12 176 7610 6925 3137 2638 3825 2860 2609 2697 2213 2108 1511 1418 1984 881 507
432 981
127 623
36 950
188 169
55 099
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inhabitants. In many cases, rapid silting up of the dam has since reduced its productivity and lifetime. There are also numerous environmental problems that can result from such major interference with river flows (Paish, 2002). Small, mini and micro-hydro plants (usually defined as plants less than 10 MW, 2 MW and 100 kW, respectively) play a key role in many countries for rural electrification. Small-scale hydro is mainly ‘run of river,’ so does not involve the construction of large dams and reservoirs. In medium (5 moheado15 m) or high-head (head415 m) installations water is carried to the forebay by a small canal. Low-head installations (heado5 m) generally involve water entering the turbine almost directly from the weir. SHP is the main prospect for future hydro developments in Europe, where the large-scale opportunities have either been exploited already, or would now be considered environmentally unacceptable. Small hydro technology is extremely robust (systems can last for 50 years or more with little maintenance), also has the capacity to make a more immediate impact on the replacement of fossil fuels since, unlike other sources of renewable energy, it can generally produce some electricity on demand (at least at times of the year when an adequate flow of water is available) with no need for storage or backup systems. It is also in many cases cost competitive with fossil-fuel power stations, or for remote rural areas, diesel generated power (Kaygusuz, 2004). Small hydro (o10 MW) currently contributes over 40 GW of world capacity. The global small hydro potential is believed to be in excess of 100 GW. China alone has developed more than 15 GW, and plans to develop a further 10 GW in the current decade. Hydropower provides about 17% of EU electricity supply. Small hydro provides over 8 GW of capacity and there is an estimated 18 GW of further small hydro potential, including refurbishment projects. The European Commission have a target to increase small hydro capacity by 4500 MW (50%) by the year 2010. With positive environmental policies now being backed by favorable
tariffs for ‘green’ electricity, the industry believes that small hydro will have a strong resurgence in Europe in the next 10 years, after 20 years of decline (Paish, 2002). 3.3.2. Turkey’s small hydro power potential To date, there is still no internationally agreed definition of ‘small’ hydro; the upper limit varies between 2.5 and 25 MW. A maximum of 10 MW is the most widely accepted value worldwide, although the definition in China stands officially at 25 MW. In Turkey, the upper limit is accepted as 50 MW. The distribution of the HPPs, that are under design level, is presented in Table 3 according to their hydro capacity (EIE, 2004). As can be seen, 30.34% of all of the annual energy will be generated by SHP. There is 80 installed SHP in Turkey 5% of which with medium head and 95% with high head (Punys, 2004). Being generally a mountainous country with annual average precipitation 643 mm, corresponding to a volume of 500 km3, Turkey’s SHP potential is high. There is installed 80 SHP with 177 MW capacity. However, the remaining economically feasible potential is nearly 22 000 GWh/yr (EIE, 2004). 3.3.3. Focus on the Eastern Black Sea Basin Among 26 hydrological basins in Turkey, the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) has great advantages from the view point of SHP potential. Because, the annual average precipitation is the highest in the country going up to 2329 mm in Rize Province. In addition, the basin covers sharp valleys and there are a lot of steep streams with considerable discharges and heads (Ucuncu et al., 1994). A study is being carried out by EIE to evaluate energy potential of small streams in Turkey (EIE, 2004). The preliminary results of this study are given in Table 4 and Fig. 2. The preliminary results of only eight basins out of 26 basins in Turkey have been obtained yet and the other basins are being studied. As can be seen, 59 projects out of 132 (44.7%) projects are in EBSB and annual energy of EBSB projects comprises of 886.56 GWh (52.18%) out of 1698.86 GWh for all of
Table 3 Distribution of under design hydro power plants according to their hydro capacity (EIE, 2004) Classification (MW)
Number of HEPP
Total capacity (MW)
Total annual energy (GWh)
o5 5–10 10–50 50–100 100–250 250–500 500–1000 41000
139 79 186 54 36 11 3 1
312 548 4595 3824 5527 3500 1791 1200
1568 2135 18 244 13 524 18 179 11 657 3199 3833
Total
509
21 297
72 339
Percentage of total annual energy 2.17 2.95 25.22 18.70 25.13 16.11 4.42 5.30 100
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the projects. The potential and potential percentage of SHP projects with various intervals of coefficient of profitability (CP) are also given in Table 4. It is also obvious that, most of (81%) the projects in EBSB are profitable with CP41. The profitable projects in EBSB cover 56.4% of all of the profitable projects discussed in this study. Thirteen projects in EBSB are being studied by DSI and are not covered in this study. According to tables presented by EIE (EIE, 2004), there are 166 projects being studied with capacity of 9742 MW and annual energy potential of 33 793 GWh. Seventy-three projects with 8644 MW and 29 375 GWh/ yr, are planned with various kinds of dams and remaining 93 projects with 1098 MW and 4418 GWh/ yr are planned as ‘‘run of river’’, without storage and dams. Within the run of water projects, 47 projects (50.5%) with 149.71 MW (13.6%) capacity and 768.41 GWh/yr (17.3%) will be made in EBSB. In addition to the above considerations, it should be emphasized that, there are more SHP potential to be A EGE. (1.2 %) MID. MEDIT. (16.39 %)
WEST MED T. (6.58 %)
EAST. BL. SEA (52.18 %)
SUSURLUK (6.51 %)
WEST BL. SEA (6.41 %)
GED Z (9.78 %) B. MEN. (0.95 %)
Fig. 2. Percentage of energy potentials of the studied SHP projects by EIE (EIE, 2004).
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studied in Turkey, and especially in EBSB. In the following, brief results of two case studies, carried out in the EBSB, are summarized. None of these projects are taken into consideration in the calculation of Turkey’s HP potential and both of them are very economical projects. One of the projects was carried out in Rize—IkizdereRuzgarli Basin. A feasibility report was prepared (Onsoy et al., 2004a) for a HPP in which water is being diverted by a weir and no storage dam is necessary. Design flow discharge of the stream is 2.74 m3/s and net head is 184.5 m, resulting in 4 MW hydropower and 8.8 GWh/yr electric energy. This plant will be operated by private sector by build-own-operate system. The other project was carried out in Rize Municipality Domestic Water Facilities. A preliminary report was prepared (Onsoy et al., 2004b) for a HPP. This is a complicated project, which comprises connecting two streams, generating HP energy, water flowing in a pipe, at the downstream of the pipeline again generating HP and letting the domestic water to flow where it will be used. It was predicted that totally 20 GWh/yr electric energy would be obtained, without creating any negative effects on the quality and quantity of the drinking water. Since most of the facilities are already built, the construction cost will be minimum compared to newbuilt plants. Similar to the above two projects, various local projects may be easily and economically developed to improve Turkey’s electric energy potential and therefore the economy. Many of the SHP projects are under investigation and the preliminary reports of some of them are either under preparation or ready. By enlarging SHP potential, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be improved by constructing various kinds of structures (weirs, canals, etc) and thus by diminishing unemployment and by providing cheaper electricity for domestic usage (lighting, heating, using electronic apparatus etc). SHP structures will also diminish
Table 4 Preliminary results of studied SHP projects by EIE (EIE, 2004) Basin
East. Black Sea Mid Mediter. Gediz West. Mediter. Susurluk Wes.Black Sea Aegean B. Menderes
Num. of Project
59 20 7 9 15 15 5 2
Capacity (MW)
157.75 69.09 41.76 23.51 23.74 21.90 4.76 3.38
Annual Energy Potential (GWh)
886.56 278.52 166.20 111.78 110.55 108.86 20.33 16.06
Potential (Percentage) of Projects According to Coefficient of Profitability (CP) CP41
1oCPo0:7
CPo0:7
718 260 116 99 23 40 0 16
130 10 27 8 77 47 14 0
38 8 23 4 11 22 7 0
(81%) (94%) (70%) (89%) (21%) (37%) (0%) (100%)
(15%) (3%) (16%) (7%) (69%) (43%) (67%) (0%)
(4%) (3%) (14%) (4%) (10%) (20%) (33%) (0%)
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deforestation, because nearly all of the rural people have used wood in heating.
4. Prediction of long-term electric energy demand 4.1. Description of MAED model A demand prediction model, called ‘‘Model for Assessment of Energy Demand’’ (MAED) was used to predict Turkey’s long-term electric energy demand. This model, prepared by International Atom Energy Agency, is a simulation model which evaluate mid- and longterm energy demands. The input list of the model comprises various technical and political parameters; such as variation in the social needs of the people, development and industrialization policy of the country and improvement in transportation and technology, etc. The total energy demand is given as demand in agriculture, industry, transportation, housing and services. MAED evaluates future energy needs based on medium long-term scenarios of socioeconomic, technological and demographic development in a country or region. MAED models how energy demands are influenced, or driven, by a variety of social, economic and technological factors. Energy demand is disaggregated into a large number of end-use categories, each one corresponding to a given service or to production of a certain good. The influence of each of the social, economic and technological driving factors from a given scenario is estimated. These are combined for an overall picture of future energy demand growth. MAED has widely been used in the world and in Turkey (UN, 2002).
The electric energy demand varies according to various parameters. The main parameters to affect the energy demand are: Gross National Product (GNP); population and demographic variations; development in housing, industry, agriculture and transportation sectors; income per capita; climatic conditions; employment, technological development, etc. 4.2. Execution of MAED model In order to execute the MAED model, a base year should be determined and the model should be verified using energy demand data measured for some years. In Turkey’s application, the base year was 1990 and the model was verified in 1995 and 2000; and then executed for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Turkey’s annual electric energy consumption in 1979 was 24 TWh and reached 130 TWh in 2001. Three kinds of scenario were applied in the model: Scenario 1 depends on the GNP values of State Planning Organization (DPT) in 8 May 2002. GNP values were modified by DPT in 30 April 2004 and Scenario 2 depends on the modified GNP values. Scenario 3 depends on production industry prediction values different from Scenario 2. The other parameters are the same of Scenario 2. The details of the scenarios and execution of the model in Turkey may be found in ‘‘Report of Turkey Long Term Electric Energy Demand’’ (RTLED, 2004). 4.3. Results of MAED model MAED Model was executed for the above three scenarios and Turkey’s annual electric energy demand
Table 5 Turkey’s annual electric energy demand values (RTLED, 2004) Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
Increase (%)
Demand (GWh)
11.4 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6
168 262 185 600 204 150 224 300 246 150 269 842 295 800 323 200 351 300 380 000 409 531 439 100 470 175 501 950 535 425 570 521
8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.4
163 191 176 400 190 700 206 400 223 500 242 021 262 000 283 500 306 100 330 300 356 202 383 000 410 700 439 600 469 500 499 489
5.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8
159 399 169 520 180 250 191 680 203 830 216 750 230 400 244 950 260 400 276 800 294 563 313 600 334 300 356 500 380 500 406 530
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600000 550000
ELECTRICITY ENERGY DEMAND (GWh)
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YEARS
Fig. 3. Results of MAED model according to three scenarios (RTLED, 2004).
values were predicted from 2004 to 2020. The results are given in Table 5 and Fig. 3 (RTLED, 2004). Annual increase ratios are also given in Table 5. As can be seen in Table 5, annual average increase ratio values are 8.66%, 7.76% and 6.38% for the Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
5. Results and discussion In this paper, the role of Turkey’s hydroelectric power in meeting the long-term electric energy demand is researched. Firstly, Turkey’s hydro and especially small hydro electric capacity is studied, and then, the results of a study, which has been carried out to predict the Turkey’s long-term electric energy demand, are presented. Because of social and economic development of the country, the demand for energy and particularly for electricity is growing rapidly in Turkey. Depending on the applied scenario, Turkey’s annual electric energy demand in 2010, 2015 and 2020 varies between 217 and 270 TWh, 294 and 410 TWh, and 407 and 571 TWh, respectively. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and NG reserves, Turkey is not a rich country, but has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity. Turkey must base its energy strategy on developing the whole hydroelectric
potential as soon as possible. Turkey’s main indigenous energy resources are hydro and almost all oil, NG and high quality coal are imported. Therefore, in order to avoid foreign dependency both in sources and funds, Turkey must discover new and renewable energy resources. Renewable sources of power other than hydro (solar, wind, etc) are valuable options. But, even if major efforts were made to develop them, they will not be able to produce large amounts of energy in the coming decades. In assessing life cycle costs, hydropower consistently compares favorably with virtually all other forms of energy generation. Hydropower provides unique economical, environmental and social benefits, rarely found in other sources of energy development. The net environmental benefits of hydropower are far superior to fossil-based generation. Turkey’s annual total gross, technically feasible and economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by DSI are 435, 215 and 128 TWh, respectively. However, according to findings of another study, in which a new criterion is developed related to key concept of the economical feasibility, economically feasible hydropower potential goes up 188 TWh/yr, with an increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Taking into consideration the electric energy demand predictions and the hydropower potential according to the new criteria, it can be easily predicted that, Turkey’s
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hydropower potential can meet nearly 33%, 38% and 46% of its electric energy demand in 2020, according to Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Moreover, in these calculations, many of SHP plants are not taken into consideration. By evaluating these resources, of which potential may be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, it is obvious that, Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources. The findings of two case projects strongly support this opinion. SHP is especially very important in the Eastern Black Sea Region, which has abundant SHP capacity due to its meteorological and topographic properties, and this potential can be easily and economically developed. By doing this, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be significantly improved. The hydropower industry is closely linked to both water management and renewable energy production, and so has a unique role to play in contributing to sustainable development in a world, where billions of people lack access to safe drinking water and adequate energy supplies. Globally, approximately 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and about 1.1 billion are without adequate water supply. However, resources for hydropower development are widely spread around the world. Potential exists in about 150 countries, and about 70% of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed-mostly in developing countries, such as Turkey, where the needs are most urgent. Hydropower is a proven and well-advanced technology, with more than a century of experience. Modern power plants provide the most efficient energy conversion process (490%). The production of peak load energy from hydro allows for the best use to be made of baseload power from other less flexible electricity sources. As part of a multipurpose scheme, hydro can help to subsidize other important functions such as irrigation water supply, navigation improvements and recreation facilities.
6. Conclusions The following concluding remarks may be drawn from this study:
Turkey’s main indigenous energy resources are hydro and lignite and it has no big oil and gas reserves. Since almost all oil, NG and high quality coal are imported, Turkey has to discover new and renewable energy resources. Renewable sources of power other than hydro are valuable options. However, they do not seem to be able to produce large amounts of energy in the coming decades. In assessing life cycle costs, hydropower consistently compares favorably with virtually all other forms of energy generation.
Turkey’s annual total economically feasible hydropower potentials calculated by DSI is 128 TWh. However, according to findings of another study, this figure goes up to 188 TWh/yr, with an increase ratio of 47% compared to DSI value. Turkey’s annual electric energy demand in 2010, 2015 and 2020 is predicted that it goes up to 270 TWh, 410 TWh and 571 TWh, respectively. Turkey’s hydropower potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020. By evaluating SHP plants, of which potential can be estimated to be in the order of some tens of TWh/yr, Turkey will provide important part of its electric energy demand from its own HP resources. The findings of two case projects strongly support this opinion. By enlarging SHP potential, the economical status of the rural people, most of whom are unemployed and poor, will be improved by constructing various kinds of structures and thus by diminishing unemployment and by providing cheaper electricity for domestic usage. Therefore, the Turkish Government and policy makers should encourage and support hydropower and especially small hydropower.
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