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The Underestimated Contribution of Hydropower for the Energiewende (Energy Transition)
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4th International Conference on Power and Energy Systems Engineering, CPESE 2017, 25-29 2017, Berlin, Germany 4th International Conference September on Power and Energy Systems Engineering, CPESE 2017, 25-29 September 2017, Berlin, Germany The 15th InternationalContribution Symposium on District Heating and Cooling The Underestimated of Hydropower for the The Underestimated Contribution of Hydropower for the Energiewende (Energy Transition) Assessing the feasibility of(Energy using the heat demand-outdoor Energiewende Transition) a* b Michael , Jürgen Spitznagel temperature function forBohlinger a long-term district heat a* b demand forecast a,b,c
I. Andrić
Michael Bohlinger , Jürgen Spitznagel Hochschule München, Lothstraße 64, München 80335, Germany a b c *, A. Hochschule Pinaa, P.München, Ferrão , J. Fournier B. Lacarrière , O. Le Correc Lothstraße 64, München ., 80335, Germany
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal Abstract b Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France Abstract c Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMTtranslated Atlantique,to 4 rue Alfredtransition Kastler, 44300 France This article describes the set up of the German “Energiewende” energy withNantes, its strong focus on the electricity market and the most traditional form of renewable energy systems: hydropower. With the definition the on future This article describes the set up of the German “Energiewende” translated to energy transition with its strong of focus the development corridor energy Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse electricity market andoftherenewable most traditional form of renewable energy systems: hydropower. With the definitiongas of reduction. the future To implement the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany applies over the years different versions of feed-in development Abstract corridor of renewable energy Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse gas reduction. laws for renewable energy systems. A corridor technology-independent funding of renewable systems is not intended in Germany. To implement the future development of renewable energy, Germany appliesenergy over the years different versions of feed-in Wind power is seenenergy as the systems. most costA efficient technology. Regarding toofthe presented figures from three different perspectives: laws for renewable technology-independent funding renewable energy systems is not intended in Germany. District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the political and is social, economic and technical, global warming the current and future possible contribution of hydropower is Wind power as the most efficientand technology. to thehigh presented figures from three different perspectives: greenhouse gasseen emissions from cost the building sector. These Regarding systems require investments which are returned through the heat underestimated. At least in theand most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross political and social, economic technical, and global warming the current and future possible contribution of hydropower is sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, domestic product,Athydropower has the powerful biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower underestimated. least in the most federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross prolonging the investment return period. has still growth potential and altogether the biggest potential compared to all other German federal states. Duehydropower to this fact domestic has biggest sharegrowth of renewable gross In these federal states The mainproduct, scope ofhydropower this paper is to the assess the feasibility of using the heatelectricity demand –production. outdoor temperature function for heat demand it is still incomprehensible why hydropower is not be seen as a bigger role player intothe Energiewende. Additional research needed has growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared all other German federal states. Due toisthis forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted offact 665 to further possibilities for hydropower toseen support the aspired way ofintransforming the existing electricity market within itbuildings isevaluate incomprehensible why hydropower is not be as a bigger role player the Energiewende. Additional research is needed that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district theevaluate Energiewende. possibilities for hydropower to support the aspired way of transforming the existing electricity market within to renovationfurther scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. the Energiewende. compared with results from a dynamic heatLtd. demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Peer-review under responsibility of Elsevier the organizing committee of CPESE 2017. ©The 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. results showed that when only weather change is considered, theInternational margin of error could beonacceptable some applications Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 4th Conference Power andfor Energy Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing of CPESE 2017. considered). However, after introducing renovation Systems Engineering. (the error in annual demand was lower than 20%committee for all weather scenarios Keywords: Energy industry; German Energiewende; Electricity market; Energy transition; Renewable energy systems; hydropower
scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
Keywords: Energy industry; German Energiewende; Electricity market; Energy transition; Renewable energy systems; hydropower
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-179-4626333; Cooling.
E-mail address:author. [email protected] Corresponding Tel.: +49-179-4626333; E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review the organizing committee 1876-6102 ©under 2017responsibility The Authors. of Published by Elsevier Ltd. of CPESE 2017. *
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of CPESE 2017. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 4th International Conference on Power and Energy Systems Engineering. 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.043
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1. Introduction and motivation Germany, fourth largest national economy of the world [1], is a pioneer of renewable energy deployment [2]. According to Amin Director General of IRENA, Germany has one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in the world under the term “Energiewende” translated to energy transition and could be seen as transition project with pilot character. On the other side the transformation of the energy system in Germany also affects rapid changes. The growing amount of renewable energy systems in the in the electricity sector leads to a rapid change in the conditions of the so far existing energy market. A technology-independent funding of renewable energy systems is not intended in Germany. Wind power is seen as the most cost efficient technology [3]. The current and future possible contribution of hydropower is underestimated. The following article should give a short historical review about the Energiewende in Germany and explain the changes in the electricity market. Hydropower, the most traditional form of renewable energy systems in Germany will be discussed from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming. At least in the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower has still growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared to all other German federal states. 2. Energiewende focused on electricity market Due to the strong support of the politics to set up the Energiewende, the share of the renewable energy systems has grown in the primary energy consumption from 1.9% in 1995 to 12.6 % in 2015. In the electricity sector, which is about a 20% [4] share of primary energy consumption, the share of renewable energy systems has grown in the same time from nearly 5% to nearly 33% [5]. Also, the total amount of gross provision of renewable energy in the electricity sector has risen from 36 TWh/a in 2000 to 153 TWh/a in the year 2013. In the sector of fuel the consumption increased from 0 TWh/a in 2013 to 33 TWh/a. [6] The biggest progress in applying renewable energy systems was made on the electrical sector. According to Kohler [7] the Energiewende is mainly focused on the Electricity sector. This is determined on the massive advantages brought by the renewable energy feed in law and its long lasting investment security. According to Fischedick 2014 an additional reason for the further development in the electricity sector is the simplified direct input of generations powered by wind and water. For fuel, renewable energy must be transformed by more steps [8]. Bettzüge achieve likewise, that the focus on Energiewende applied by the phase out of nuclear power plants and renewable energy systems, which are about 10 % compared to the primary energy consumption. The politics and the public do not perceive a further debate on the heat and transportation sector [9]. It can be summarized, that there are different reasons for focusing on the electricity sector by applying the Energiewende. 2.1. Development and contribution of renewable energy systems in the electricity market In 1995 4.7 % of the gross electricity generation was generated by renewable energy systems. The predominant share comes from hydropower. Since then the share of renewable energy systems in the electricity market (gross electricity generation) has risen to more than 30% [10]. Driven by fixed feed-in tariffs for electric renewable energy production, the share of gross electricity generation by renewable energy systems were promoted depending on source and capacity. The development of gross electricity generation of renewable energy systems is shown in Fig. 1. To emphasize the growth of renewable energy systems, a comparison of the growth rate of annual production and installed capacity on the basis of 2005 is shown on Table 1.
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Fig. 1. The development of the share of gross electricity generation by renewable energy systems (year 2005 – 2015) [10] Table 1. Comparison of the growth rates of renewable energy systems represented on annual production and installed capacity on the basis of 2005 [10] windpower onshore
windpower offshore1)
hydropower
biomass
photovoltaic
growth rate of annual production from 2005 to 2015
277%
1300%
97%
378%
2950%
growth rate of installed capacity from 2005 to 2015
227%
646%
107%
1148%
1931%
1) The data from offshore wind is based on a 3 years period of consideration due to less data before 2013.
Photovoltaic has the biggest growth rate in annual production by 2950% followed by wind offshore. This peak lasts from the commissioning of the first offshore windpark Alpha Ventus, in 2010 [11]. The light decrease of the annual production growth rate of hydropower is attributable to varying water discharged depending on yearly weather conditions. The increased growth rate of annual production of renewable energy systems resulted mainly from the immense addition of new assets in windpower onshore and offshore, photovoltaic, and biomass. The different growth rate between annual production and installed capacity comes from volatile weather condition of the reference years and the variable date of commissioning and production within a year. The difference between growth rate of annual production and installed capacity depends also on the technical development by increase of efficiency. 2.2. Future outlook of renewable energy systems in the electricity market The government passed the 2014 update of the energy feed-in law to declare a reliable development corridor for the growth of renewable energy. The development corridor should secure a step-by-step synchronization of the increase of renewable energy systems and the necessary expansion of the grid. Furthermore, the development corridor should also provide a secure planning foundation to development future of the conventional coal, lignite or gas fired plants and the cross border interaction with the European neighbor countries [12]. Fig. 2 shows the future development corridor of renewable energy systems based on the quantitative goals of 40 to 45 % renewable Energy gross electricity generation till 2025 and 55 to 60 % till 2035. A minimum of 80% should be achieved by 2050 [12].
Michael Bohlinger et al. / Energy Procedia 141000–000 (2017) 360–367 Michael Bohlinger et al./ Energy Procedia 00 (2017)
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Fig. 2. The future development corridor for growth of renewable energy systems [12]
The development path for renewable energy will be regulated by the amount of admitted tenders. A shortfall will be avoided by realization of the emitted offers. The tendering process is mandatory for wind onshore/offshore, biomass with a capacity of more than 705 kW, and large-scale photovoltaic. These forms of renewable energy systems will be seen as the most important growth volume and is estimated by 80% [3]. The BMWi also sees in wind onshore the most cost effective technology. Therefore the amount of new capacity per year is staggered from 2800 MW in 2017 until 2019 and 2900 MW from 2020. For wind offshore a total amount of 15 GW is intended for new installed capacity till 2030. The growth target amount for photovoltaic with more than 750 kW per site was set by 600 MW per year [3]. 3. The underestimated contribution of hydropower for the Energiewende Hydropower is the most tradition form of renewable energy. The first established transmission from hydropower to mechanical power was used about 300 years before Christ. In this time mechanical power from hydropower was used for pumping, milling, sawing, and hammering. Waterwheels created the rotating force. Today almost a fifth of world-wide produced electrical power is produced by hydropower plants. The absolute amount of produced energy by hydropower is about three times higher compared to any other renewable power generation sources [13]. The intended growth of the renewable energy systems in the electricity market pursued by the German government is mainly focused on wind onshore. The BMWi sees wind onshore as the most cost effective technology [12]. On a closer look to the gross production of 2015, the only market competitive renewable energy systems, which are not promoted by energy law are hydropower plants with an installed capacity of more than 5 MW [8], [14], [15]. This statement could be supported by the comparison of annual cumulated remuneration for different renewable energy systems, which have been paid by feed-in law. Fig. 3 shows the annual cumulated remuneration from 2005 till 2016. In the following sections, the most traditional form of renewable energy systems in Germany will be discussed from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming.
Fig. 3. Annual cumulated remuneration for different renewable energy systems in billion € [16]
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3.1. Political and social perspective Political decision makers underestimate the contribution of hydropower to the Energiewende in Germany. In a survey from [17], 600 energy experts from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden were asked about hydropower and its influence to climate change. Within the study a question about the political support for renewable energy generated by hydropower were asked. 63 % of the German experts said that hydropower is not adequate supported compared to 40 % in Austria and 38 % in Switzerland 36 % in Sweden and 32 % in Norway. From the perspective of the BMWi hydropower will not play a big role in the Energiewende. In the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In Bavaria the average share of gross electricity production lies by 14.3 %, in Baden-Wuerttemberg by 7.4% [18], [19]. Both states studies also promote existing potential for hydropower. So the potential in annual production in Bavaria is seen by 14 % [10], [20], [21]. Regarding to [22] there is a significant potential of 1.372 GWh in Bavaria and 571 GWh in Baden-Wuerttemberg of additional annual production which could be lifted by existing hpp. Therefore the nominal discharge and the plant efficiency must be improved. Measured by the total potential of Germany, the largest share of 54% is located in Bavaria. The second largest share with 22% is located in Baden-Wuerttemberg. Compared to the general expected growth of wind in Germany by BMWi, the current potential of wind in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg is seen as significant lower related to other federal tectorial states by considering full load hours [23], [24]. The current amount of installed capacity with 1.893 MW in Bavaria and 694 MW in BadenWuerttemberg together is about 6.2 % of the installed capacity in Germany [25], [26]. New technologies like weak wind turbines also offer locations in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg where an installation of wind turbines could be economical future. The most parts of the economic places for wind turbine are located in ecological sensitive places like low mountain ranges and pre alpine landscapes [27]. In general 92 % of the German citizens support the expansion of renewable energy systems [28]. Considering the result of 600 energy experts hydropower has the best image 79% compared to other renewable energy systems like wind 31 % and photovoltaic 67 % [17]. It could be summarized: Hydropower gets less support by political decision makers. Hydropower has the best image compared to all other renewable energy systems Hydropower has still a growing potential at least in the federal states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg 3.2. Economic and technical perspective Due to the long historical usage, the learning curve and technical development potential of hydropower is well advanced compared to other renewable energy systems. To understand the difference between renewable energy systems by an economic and technical perspective, a variety of parameters will be used.
Fig. 4. Comparison of electricity generation costs for new built renewable energy systems built in Germany and an installed capacity with more than 1 MW in ct/kWh [29], [30]
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The BMWi promotes wind power as the most cost efficient renewable energy technology [12]. In contrast studies from [29], [30] indicate a comparison of electricity generation costs for new built renewable energy systems built in Germany like new wind parks or hydropower plants with more than 1 MW installed capacity. Fig. 4 shows a comparison of electricity generation costs in ct/kWh. Hydropower could be built with the lowest generation costs and is the best-cost efficient renewable energy system. A comparison of the capacity factor helps to understand the reliability of renewable energy systems. The capacity factor could also be described as measurability for quality feature of electricity generation. The capacity factor is the average power generated, divided by the theoretical technical potential. The theoretical technical potential is the installed capacity multiplied by 8760 annual hours. The assessment of renewable energy systems by capacity factor in Fig. 5 shows, that only biomass and hydropower achieve more than the half of its theoretical technical potential [31], [32].
Fig. 5. comparison of the capacity factor of renewable energy systems [31], [32].
Another criteria for measurement of quality could be seen in the reliability of assured capacity. According to [33] the minimum and maximum capacity of wind, photovoltaic and hydropower in Germany in the year 2014 could be seen in Table 2. So the volatility of windpower and photovoltaic between is immense and up to 33 times higher compared to hydropower. Table 2.Comparison of reliability of assured capacity of windpower onshore, photovoltaic and hydropower [33]
1)
windpower onshore
photovoltaic
hydropower
min. capacity [MW]
40
correspond to 0
2001)
max capacity [GW]
29,7
24,2
4,2
negative tertary control for the grid is not considered.
3.3. Global warming perspective An ecological measurement parameter for the assessment of renewable energy systems could be seen in the avoidance of greenhouse gases per gross generated energy [34]. Fig. 6 present hydropower, photovoltaic, biomass, windpower onshore and windpower offshore. In general the avoidance of greenhouse gases per generated GWh produced by renewable energy system is decreasing year by year. In contrast to the first sight, this means not that the avoided greenhouse gases per generated GWh for Germany is decreasing. Rather the effect of additional generated GWh from new build renewable energy systems are less due to general increasing amount of new renewable energy systems year by year. The increasing of the chart of windpower onshore from 1998 to 2004 could be seen as efficiency enhancement as consequence of technical advancement and the corresponding learning curve. All charts from 2011 to 2015 present a very similar pattern. The differences in the amount of the value represent the individual
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advantage of the technology. Hydropower represents the highest avoiding of greenhouse gases per gross generated Energy plotted in GWh.
Fig. 6. Comparison of avoidance of greenhouse gases per gross generated energy in 1.000 t CO2 / GWh from 1995 to 2015 [34]
The individual advantage of hydropower concerning the avoidance of green house gases could be underlined by the approach of CO2 abatement cost. Table 3 gives an overview of CO2 abatement cost [35]. Table 3. Overview CO2 abatement cost [35] €/t
windpower onshore
photovoltaic
hydropower
124
846
30
4. Summary and conclusion The set up of the German Energiewende has a strong focus on the electricity market. With the definition of the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse gas reduction. To implement the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany applies over the years different versions of feed-in laws for renewable energy systems. Wind power is seen as the most cost efficient technology and should bring the greatest contribution. The current and future possible contribution of hydropower is underestimated. Regarding to the presented figures from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming, hydropower could be seen as all in all completes technology. At least in the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower has still growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared to all other German federal states. Due to this fact it is incomprehensible why hydropower is not be seen as a bigger role player in the Energiewende. Additional research is needed to evaluate further possibilities for hydropower to support the aspired way of transforming the existing electricity market within the Energiewende. 5. References [1] World Economic Forum, “The world’s 10 biggest economies in 2017.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/. [Accessed: 01-Aug-2017].
[Online].
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Available: https://www.erneuerbareenergien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/bmwi_de/marktanalysen-photovoltaik-wasserkraft.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=11. [Accessed: 12-Dec-2016]. [20] G. Overhoff, “Wasserkraftnutzung in Bayern – wie geht es weiter ?,” 2010. [21] S. Heimerl, U. Dußling, and J. Reiss, “Ausbaupotenzial der Wasserkraft bis 1.000 kW im Einzugsgebiet des Neckars unter Berücksichtigung ökologischer Bewirtschaftungsziele ohne Bundeswasserstraße Neckar,” 2011. [22] P. Anderer, U. Dumont, and S. Heimerl, “Potentialermittlung für den Ausbau der Wasserkraftnutzung in Deutschland als Grundlage für die Entwicklung einer geeigneten Ausbaustrategie, Schlussbericht,” 2010. [23] I. Lütkehus, H. Salecker, and A. Kirsten, “Potenzial der Windenergie an Land Studie zur Ermittlung des bundesweiten Flächen und Leistungspotentials der Windenergienutzung an Lands,” 2013. [24] Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V., “Windenergiepotenzial Bayern - Potenzial der Windenergienutzung an Land –,” 2011. 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4th International Conference on Power and Energy Systems Engineering, CPESE 2017, 25-29 2017, Berlin, Germany 4th International Conference September on Power and Energy Systems Engineering, CPESE 2017, 25-29 September 2017, Berlin, Germany The 15th InternationalContribution Symposium on District Heating and Cooling The Underestimated of Hydropower for the The Underestimated Contribution of Hydropower for the Energiewende (Energy Transition) Assessing the feasibility of(Energy using the heat demand-outdoor Energiewende Transition) a* b Michael , Jürgen Spitznagel temperature function forBohlinger a long-term district heat a* b demand forecast a,b,c
I. Andrić
Michael Bohlinger , Jürgen Spitznagel Hochschule München, Lothstraße 64, München 80335, Germany a b c *, A. Hochschule Pinaa, P.München, Ferrão , J. Fournier B. Lacarrière , O. Le Correc Lothstraße 64, München ., 80335, Germany
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal Abstract b Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France Abstract c Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMTtranslated Atlantique,to 4 rue Alfredtransition Kastler, 44300 France This article describes the set up of the German “Energiewende” energy withNantes, its strong focus on the electricity market and the most traditional form of renewable energy systems: hydropower. With the definition the on future This article describes the set up of the German “Energiewende” translated to energy transition with its strong of focus the development corridor energy Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse electricity market andoftherenewable most traditional form of renewable energy systems: hydropower. With the definitiongas of reduction. the future To implement the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany applies over the years different versions of feed-in development Abstract corridor of renewable energy Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse gas reduction. laws for renewable energy systems. A corridor technology-independent funding of renewable systems is not intended in Germany. To implement the future development of renewable energy, Germany appliesenergy over the years different versions of feed-in Wind power is seenenergy as the systems. most costA efficient technology. Regarding toofthe presented figures from three different perspectives: laws for renewable technology-independent funding renewable energy systems is not intended in Germany. District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the political and is social, economic and technical, global warming the current and future possible contribution of hydropower is Wind power as the most efficientand technology. to thehigh presented figures from three different perspectives: greenhouse gasseen emissions from cost the building sector. These Regarding systems require investments which are returned through the heat underestimated. At least in theand most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross political and social, economic technical, and global warming the current and future possible contribution of hydropower is sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, domestic product,Athydropower has the powerful biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower underestimated. least in the most federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross prolonging the investment return period. has still growth potential and altogether the biggest potential compared to all other German federal states. Duehydropower to this fact domestic has biggest sharegrowth of renewable gross In these federal states The mainproduct, scope ofhydropower this paper is to the assess the feasibility of using the heatelectricity demand –production. outdoor temperature function for heat demand it is still incomprehensible why hydropower is not be seen as a bigger role player intothe Energiewende. Additional research needed has growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared all other German federal states. Due toisthis forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted offact 665 to further possibilities for hydropower toseen support the aspired way ofintransforming the existing electricity market within itbuildings isevaluate incomprehensible why hydropower is not be as a bigger role player the Energiewende. Additional research is needed that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district theevaluate Energiewende. possibilities for hydropower to support the aspired way of transforming the existing electricity market within to renovationfurther scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. the Energiewende. compared with results from a dynamic heatLtd. demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Peer-review under responsibility of Elsevier the organizing committee of CPESE 2017. ©The 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. results showed that when only weather change is considered, theInternational margin of error could beonacceptable some applications Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 4th Conference Power andfor Energy Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing of CPESE 2017. considered). However, after introducing renovation Systems Engineering. (the error in annual demand was lower than 20%committee for all weather scenarios Keywords: Energy industry; German Energiewende; Electricity market; Energy transition; Renewable energy systems; hydropower
scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
Keywords: Energy industry; German Energiewende; Electricity market; Energy transition; Renewable energy systems; hydropower
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-179-4626333; Cooling.
E-mail address:author. [email protected] Corresponding Tel.: +49-179-4626333; E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review the organizing committee 1876-6102 ©under 2017responsibility The Authors. of Published by Elsevier Ltd. of CPESE 2017. *
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of CPESE 2017. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 4th International Conference on Power and Energy Systems Engineering. 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.043
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1. Introduction and motivation Germany, fourth largest national economy of the world [1], is a pioneer of renewable energy deployment [2]. According to Amin Director General of IRENA, Germany has one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in the world under the term “Energiewende” translated to energy transition and could be seen as transition project with pilot character. On the other side the transformation of the energy system in Germany also affects rapid changes. The growing amount of renewable energy systems in the in the electricity sector leads to a rapid change in the conditions of the so far existing energy market. A technology-independent funding of renewable energy systems is not intended in Germany. Wind power is seen as the most cost efficient technology [3]. The current and future possible contribution of hydropower is underestimated. The following article should give a short historical review about the Energiewende in Germany and explain the changes in the electricity market. Hydropower, the most traditional form of renewable energy systems in Germany will be discussed from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming. At least in the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower has still growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared to all other German federal states. 2. Energiewende focused on electricity market Due to the strong support of the politics to set up the Energiewende, the share of the renewable energy systems has grown in the primary energy consumption from 1.9% in 1995 to 12.6 % in 2015. In the electricity sector, which is about a 20% [4] share of primary energy consumption, the share of renewable energy systems has grown in the same time from nearly 5% to nearly 33% [5]. Also, the total amount of gross provision of renewable energy in the electricity sector has risen from 36 TWh/a in 2000 to 153 TWh/a in the year 2013. In the sector of fuel the consumption increased from 0 TWh/a in 2013 to 33 TWh/a. [6] The biggest progress in applying renewable energy systems was made on the electrical sector. According to Kohler [7] the Energiewende is mainly focused on the Electricity sector. This is determined on the massive advantages brought by the renewable energy feed in law and its long lasting investment security. According to Fischedick 2014 an additional reason for the further development in the electricity sector is the simplified direct input of generations powered by wind and water. For fuel, renewable energy must be transformed by more steps [8]. Bettzüge achieve likewise, that the focus on Energiewende applied by the phase out of nuclear power plants and renewable energy systems, which are about 10 % compared to the primary energy consumption. The politics and the public do not perceive a further debate on the heat and transportation sector [9]. It can be summarized, that there are different reasons for focusing on the electricity sector by applying the Energiewende. 2.1. Development and contribution of renewable energy systems in the electricity market In 1995 4.7 % of the gross electricity generation was generated by renewable energy systems. The predominant share comes from hydropower. Since then the share of renewable energy systems in the electricity market (gross electricity generation) has risen to more than 30% [10]. Driven by fixed feed-in tariffs for electric renewable energy production, the share of gross electricity generation by renewable energy systems were promoted depending on source and capacity. The development of gross electricity generation of renewable energy systems is shown in Fig. 1. To emphasize the growth of renewable energy systems, a comparison of the growth rate of annual production and installed capacity on the basis of 2005 is shown on Table 1.
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Fig. 1. The development of the share of gross electricity generation by renewable energy systems (year 2005 – 2015) [10] Table 1. Comparison of the growth rates of renewable energy systems represented on annual production and installed capacity on the basis of 2005 [10] windpower onshore
windpower offshore1)
hydropower
biomass
photovoltaic
growth rate of annual production from 2005 to 2015
277%
1300%
97%
378%
2950%
growth rate of installed capacity from 2005 to 2015
227%
646%
107%
1148%
1931%
1) The data from offshore wind is based on a 3 years period of consideration due to less data before 2013.
Photovoltaic has the biggest growth rate in annual production by 2950% followed by wind offshore. This peak lasts from the commissioning of the first offshore windpark Alpha Ventus, in 2010 [11]. The light decrease of the annual production growth rate of hydropower is attributable to varying water discharged depending on yearly weather conditions. The increased growth rate of annual production of renewable energy systems resulted mainly from the immense addition of new assets in windpower onshore and offshore, photovoltaic, and biomass. The different growth rate between annual production and installed capacity comes from volatile weather condition of the reference years and the variable date of commissioning and production within a year. The difference between growth rate of annual production and installed capacity depends also on the technical development by increase of efficiency. 2.2. Future outlook of renewable energy systems in the electricity market The government passed the 2014 update of the energy feed-in law to declare a reliable development corridor for the growth of renewable energy. The development corridor should secure a step-by-step synchronization of the increase of renewable energy systems and the necessary expansion of the grid. Furthermore, the development corridor should also provide a secure planning foundation to development future of the conventional coal, lignite or gas fired plants and the cross border interaction with the European neighbor countries [12]. Fig. 2 shows the future development corridor of renewable energy systems based on the quantitative goals of 40 to 45 % renewable Energy gross electricity generation till 2025 and 55 to 60 % till 2035. A minimum of 80% should be achieved by 2050 [12].
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Fig. 2. The future development corridor for growth of renewable energy systems [12]
The development path for renewable energy will be regulated by the amount of admitted tenders. A shortfall will be avoided by realization of the emitted offers. The tendering process is mandatory for wind onshore/offshore, biomass with a capacity of more than 705 kW, and large-scale photovoltaic. These forms of renewable energy systems will be seen as the most important growth volume and is estimated by 80% [3]. The BMWi also sees in wind onshore the most cost effective technology. Therefore the amount of new capacity per year is staggered from 2800 MW in 2017 until 2019 and 2900 MW from 2020. For wind offshore a total amount of 15 GW is intended for new installed capacity till 2030. The growth target amount for photovoltaic with more than 750 kW per site was set by 600 MW per year [3]. 3. The underestimated contribution of hydropower for the Energiewende Hydropower is the most tradition form of renewable energy. The first established transmission from hydropower to mechanical power was used about 300 years before Christ. In this time mechanical power from hydropower was used for pumping, milling, sawing, and hammering. Waterwheels created the rotating force. Today almost a fifth of world-wide produced electrical power is produced by hydropower plants. The absolute amount of produced energy by hydropower is about three times higher compared to any other renewable power generation sources [13]. The intended growth of the renewable energy systems in the electricity market pursued by the German government is mainly focused on wind onshore. The BMWi sees wind onshore as the most cost effective technology [12]. On a closer look to the gross production of 2015, the only market competitive renewable energy systems, which are not promoted by energy law are hydropower plants with an installed capacity of more than 5 MW [8], [14], [15]. This statement could be supported by the comparison of annual cumulated remuneration for different renewable energy systems, which have been paid by feed-in law. Fig. 3 shows the annual cumulated remuneration from 2005 till 2016. In the following sections, the most traditional form of renewable energy systems in Germany will be discussed from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming.
Fig. 3. Annual cumulated remuneration for different renewable energy systems in billion € [16]
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3.1. Political and social perspective Political decision makers underestimate the contribution of hydropower to the Energiewende in Germany. In a survey from [17], 600 energy experts from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden were asked about hydropower and its influence to climate change. Within the study a question about the political support for renewable energy generated by hydropower were asked. 63 % of the German experts said that hydropower is not adequate supported compared to 40 % in Austria and 38 % in Switzerland 36 % in Sweden and 32 % in Norway. From the perspective of the BMWi hydropower will not play a big role in the Energiewende. In the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In Bavaria the average share of gross electricity production lies by 14.3 %, in Baden-Wuerttemberg by 7.4% [18], [19]. Both states studies also promote existing potential for hydropower. So the potential in annual production in Bavaria is seen by 14 % [10], [20], [21]. Regarding to [22] there is a significant potential of 1.372 GWh in Bavaria and 571 GWh in Baden-Wuerttemberg of additional annual production which could be lifted by existing hpp. Therefore the nominal discharge and the plant efficiency must be improved. Measured by the total potential of Germany, the largest share of 54% is located in Bavaria. The second largest share with 22% is located in Baden-Wuerttemberg. Compared to the general expected growth of wind in Germany by BMWi, the current potential of wind in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg is seen as significant lower related to other federal tectorial states by considering full load hours [23], [24]. The current amount of installed capacity with 1.893 MW in Bavaria and 694 MW in BadenWuerttemberg together is about 6.2 % of the installed capacity in Germany [25], [26]. New technologies like weak wind turbines also offer locations in Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg where an installation of wind turbines could be economical future. The most parts of the economic places for wind turbine are located in ecological sensitive places like low mountain ranges and pre alpine landscapes [27]. In general 92 % of the German citizens support the expansion of renewable energy systems [28]. Considering the result of 600 energy experts hydropower has the best image 79% compared to other renewable energy systems like wind 31 % and photovoltaic 67 % [17]. It could be summarized: Hydropower gets less support by political decision makers. Hydropower has the best image compared to all other renewable energy systems Hydropower has still a growing potential at least in the federal states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg 3.2. Economic and technical perspective Due to the long historical usage, the learning curve and technical development potential of hydropower is well advanced compared to other renewable energy systems. To understand the difference between renewable energy systems by an economic and technical perspective, a variety of parameters will be used.
Fig. 4. Comparison of electricity generation costs for new built renewable energy systems built in Germany and an installed capacity with more than 1 MW in ct/kWh [29], [30]
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The BMWi promotes wind power as the most cost efficient renewable energy technology [12]. In contrast studies from [29], [30] indicate a comparison of electricity generation costs for new built renewable energy systems built in Germany like new wind parks or hydropower plants with more than 1 MW installed capacity. Fig. 4 shows a comparison of electricity generation costs in ct/kWh. Hydropower could be built with the lowest generation costs and is the best-cost efficient renewable energy system. A comparison of the capacity factor helps to understand the reliability of renewable energy systems. The capacity factor could also be described as measurability for quality feature of electricity generation. The capacity factor is the average power generated, divided by the theoretical technical potential. The theoretical technical potential is the installed capacity multiplied by 8760 annual hours. The assessment of renewable energy systems by capacity factor in Fig. 5 shows, that only biomass and hydropower achieve more than the half of its theoretical technical potential [31], [32].
Fig. 5. comparison of the capacity factor of renewable energy systems [31], [32].
Another criteria for measurement of quality could be seen in the reliability of assured capacity. According to [33] the minimum and maximum capacity of wind, photovoltaic and hydropower in Germany in the year 2014 could be seen in Table 2. So the volatility of windpower and photovoltaic between is immense and up to 33 times higher compared to hydropower. Table 2.Comparison of reliability of assured capacity of windpower onshore, photovoltaic and hydropower [33]
1)
windpower onshore
photovoltaic
hydropower
min. capacity [MW]
40
correspond to 0
2001)
max capacity [GW]
29,7
24,2
4,2
negative tertary control for the grid is not considered.
3.3. Global warming perspective An ecological measurement parameter for the assessment of renewable energy systems could be seen in the avoidance of greenhouse gases per gross generated energy [34]. Fig. 6 present hydropower, photovoltaic, biomass, windpower onshore and windpower offshore. In general the avoidance of greenhouse gases per generated GWh produced by renewable energy system is decreasing year by year. In contrast to the first sight, this means not that the avoided greenhouse gases per generated GWh for Germany is decreasing. Rather the effect of additional generated GWh from new build renewable energy systems are less due to general increasing amount of new renewable energy systems year by year. The increasing of the chart of windpower onshore from 1998 to 2004 could be seen as efficiency enhancement as consequence of technical advancement and the corresponding learning curve. All charts from 2011 to 2015 present a very similar pattern. The differences in the amount of the value represent the individual
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advantage of the technology. Hydropower represents the highest avoiding of greenhouse gases per gross generated Energy plotted in GWh.
Fig. 6. Comparison of avoidance of greenhouse gases per gross generated energy in 1.000 t CO2 / GWh from 1995 to 2015 [34]
The individual advantage of hydropower concerning the avoidance of green house gases could be underlined by the approach of CO2 abatement cost. Table 3 gives an overview of CO2 abatement cost [35]. Table 3. Overview CO2 abatement cost [35] €/t
windpower onshore
photovoltaic
hydropower
124
846
30
4. Summary and conclusion The set up of the German Energiewende has a strong focus on the electricity market. With the definition of the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany could achieve the really ambitious self-imposed greenhouse gas reduction. To implement the future development corridor of renewable energy, Germany applies over the years different versions of feed-in laws for renewable energy systems. Wind power is seen as the most cost efficient technology and should bring the greatest contribution. The current and future possible contribution of hydropower is underestimated. Regarding to the presented figures from three different perspectives: political and social, economic and technical, and global warming, hydropower could be seen as all in all completes technology. At least in the most powerful federal tectorial states Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg considered by gross domestic product, hydropower has the biggest share of renewable gross electricity production. In these federal states hydropower has still growth potential and altogether the biggest growth potential compared to all other German federal states. Due to this fact it is incomprehensible why hydropower is not be seen as a bigger role player in the Energiewende. Additional research is needed to evaluate further possibilities for hydropower to support the aspired way of transforming the existing electricity market within the Energiewende. 5. References [1] World Economic Forum, “The world’s 10 biggest economies in 2017.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/. [Accessed: 01-Aug-2017].
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