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Values in futures studies and long-term planning
52
VALUES IN FUTURES STUDIES AND LONG-TERM PLANNING Two Swedish case studies Abdul
Khakee
and Lars Dahlgren
The past few years’ debate on the devolution of decision making in Swedish urban communities has increased the importance of examining values among planners and the eventual subjects of the plans. This article presents two case studies which show that the discrepancy in values not only complicates the planning process but also raises the need for further research in developing new techniques in delineating individual values. Keywords:
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS play an important in futures studies. Both activities involve ideas,
hopes
and dreams,
and are therefore
future studies; Sweden; long-term planning
role both in long-term planning the use of models which deal value-loaded.
Both
futures
and with
studies
and plans imply an attempt to impose past and current values on the future. Therefore it is imperative to understand what these values imply and how they change. Some authors place value considerations at the centre of such activities. Taylor,
for example,
writes:
If social and economic change is rooted in value change, we are wasting our time attempting to forecast the future unless we give a high priority to the study of value changes.’ The problem of value study or of long-term separate phases:
consideration occurs in nearly every phase of a futures planning. Fowles has delineated its occurrence in four
Abdul Khakee is senior lecturer in economics at the University of Urn&Department of Geography, S 901 87 Urn&Sweden. He also serves as a research adviser on strategic planning to several Swedish municipalities. He is the author of Development and Planning in Tanzania; Plannq in a Mixed Economy: The Case of Sweden; and Municipal Planning: Restrictions, Methods and Organizational Problems. Lars Dahigren is a research associate and lecturer in sociology at the University of Umea. He serves as a research adviser on community development tn several Swedish municipalities. He is the author of Social Development Planning and Local Communities; and Vulnerability and Self-Reliance.
0016-3287186/010052-16$03.0001986
Butterworth & Co(Publishers)
Ltd
FUTURESFebruary
1966
l o 0 e
defining the project area or planning problems; choosing goals or selecting among the alternatives under consideration; forecasting development, including the choice of forecasting methods; and developing and evaluating strategies of intervention.’
The need for examining values occurs in two contexts. Besides examining the values of the futurologists and planners in order to find out which are and are not represented, and how much faith one can put on the results of their studies, it is necessary to analyse variation of values in the society under examination. Cullen and Knox, Fowles, Huber, Ikle, Miles and Irvine have presented various ways of studying changing values3 These methods can be summarized in three broad categories. First, the survey of the current values of life and determination of the factors that have affected changes in them. Changes in future values can be determined through empirical inquiries into individual and collective images of the future. Second, manipulation of value shifts. This allows futurists or planners to design policies which may alter future values, especially those which are contemporarily superficial. And last, creation of flexible future images in which the values of various groups and of the whole society may be assumed to change, together with descriptions of assumed implications of such changes. Futures studies and long-term plans are constructed with as much opportunity for review as possible. In this article, we present two case studies. The first looks at the values of planners and politicians engaged in futures-oriented municipal lanning in the municipality of Vasteras in central Sweden. The second examines values among two groups of municipal citizens, one of which attended study circles in order to increase participants’ knowledge of long-term planning and hopefully increase their participation in community planning, while the second group did not participate in such circles. The second case study was conducted in the municipality of G%llivare in Northern Sweden.4 Various attempts have been made to classify difterent types of values. Schwartz and her colleagues distinguish between three types of values: political, professional and paradigmatic. 5 In this paper the major emphasis has been put on the political values since we believe that these values condition the way in which a futures study or a planning process is conducted. In studying the political values in the two case studies, we have considered several dimensions. Even though the left-right ideological scale is considered adequate for defining the position of political parties, more recently, political scientists and sociologists have presented other dimensions which complicate the basic left-right polarity. 6 The new dimensions have been defined in various ways with the help of such terms as decentralization-centralization of political power, ecological balance-economic growth, interregional and international interdependence u self-reliance, inner and outer world values, and so on. 7 These new dimensions are the result of new social movements like feminism, environment~ism and the peace movement.a As mentioned above, the left-right dimension is the most commonly used when discussing political values. Quite often this dimension is visualized as norm-maintaining v norm-changing alignment. Popularly, norm-maintaining
FUTURES February 1986
is equated with conservatism and norm-changing with radicalism. This way of interpreting left-right polarity is not always correct. It is true that conservatism, in a sense, implies the retention of the status quo whereas radicalism may stand for fundamental inte~entions in the society instead of gradual change-but this cannot always be related to the left-right ideological scale.g The devolution of political and administrative power has been an important issue in the public debate on planning and decision making in Sweden. Differing from many other countries in Western Europe, the expansion of the public sector in the postwar period in Sweden has resulted in the transfer of a large number of activities from central to local government. However, this decentralization has been accompanied by the introduction of special legislations, tighter control of government subsidies to the municipalities and central government’s management of municipal activities. Much of urban development in Sweden has been directed by a national urban policy. This policy has been successful in times of rapid economic growth and political stability, but as political and economic uncertainties have increased, so has scepticism about the centralization of political decision making with regards to urban development. Another aspect of the centralization-decentralization debate came in the wake of the municipal merger reform in 1974, when the number of municipalities was reduced from roughly 1000 to 284 with a population threshold of 8000 inhabitants considered necessary for the efficient management of public service. A serious by-product of this reform was greater alienation of citizens from the decision-making apparatus in the new municipalities. Both these factors have been important in the centralization-decentralization debate in Sweden. lo Formally, the centralization-decentralization dimension was related to left-right ideology. A majority of the decentralists were reckoned to belong to the Center Party (the Agrarians) who have predominantly right-wing values. This, however, is no longer true. More recently a new political party-the Environmental Party-has appeared on the political scene in Sweden. It represents a combination of rightand left-wing ideals and is difficult to classify on a right-left scale. Furthermore, the ruling Social Democratic Party which has been a strong supporter of centralization has started re-examining its position on the relationship between central and local government. SO this dimension has two aspects. Decentralization not only implies greater power for subsidiary or local bodies in relation to the central government, but it also implies delegation of power within the local community. Another dimension of political values which has been gaining in importance is the issue of continued reliance on regional and international division of labour u In the wake of environmental movements there has greater self-reliance. emerged a new type of values such as living in harmony with nature and a lack of trust of government, big business, political parties and trade unions. An underlying belief has been reliance on one’s own resources for a more meaningful life. This type of self-reliance can be termed ‘progressive selfreliance’. Among politicians and planners in municipalities situated in with industrially stagnant regions, there has been increasing disillusionment central government’s ability to provide adequate aid and promote development. Self-reliance in this case implies increased dependence on local community’s FUTURES February 1986
Values in fulures
sludies and long-term planning
55
resources but without any commitment to a particular type of development. This can be described as ‘community self-reliance’. l2 but nevertheless an important feature in the Not of great relevance, discussion of political values, is the distinction between masculine (androcratic) and feminine (gynecratic) values. Futures studies and planning have been traditionally dominated by masculine values. More recently, several futures studies have had feminine values as a starting point. It is too early to discuss the impact of gynecratism on political forces and alignments, however, androcratic-gynecratic polarity has become an important dimension in recent political debate.i3 The rest of this article is divided into three sections: the first presents the Vasteras study, while the second presents the Gallivare study. The concluding section is a discussion of the major problems in surveying values among different categories of people and offers suggestions of key issues for further study. The Visteras study Background Since 1983, Vasteras is one of some 50 municipalities in Sweden working with municipal futures studies. l4 The focus of the Vasteras model is to discover a pedagogical process that uses futures studies not only to generate knowledge about the future but also to enhance the insight of planners and decision makers through their direct participation in the study process. This in turn implies a successive choice of techniques as the issues under study get clarified and as planners and decision makers involved in the study obtain better understanding of the possible approaches to solving various problems. The Vasteras model is divided into six interrelated operations: (1) review of current planning and decision making in the municipality; (2) examination of methodological issues and their orientation among planners and decision makers; (3) selection of study objects and identification of environmental variables; (4) evaluation of past and current development and explorative forecasts of study objects; (5) analysis of alternative developments of the environment; (6) evaluation of alternative futures of study objects.15 The model is in the process of being applied and the planners and decision makers have chosen the municipal services as the study object, since the municipal government exercises a considerable amount of control over these activities. The selection of this study object was preceded by careful consideration of alternative study objects in a number of brainstorming sessions with the planners and politicians. At the same time ten environmental factors were identified as being crucial for the future development of the municipal services. They are: economy, labour market, information technology, political structure, regional structure, societal values, commercial services, education, demographic changes and transportation. The municipal executive council has appointed three groups. (1) The ‘internal reference group’ consists of leading politicians from all political parties. The group has overall political responsibility for the futures study. It participates in all relevant activities including brainstorming sessions, seminars, preparation of future biographies, etc. (2) The ‘working group’ consists of 13
FUTURES February 1966
56
Values infulures studies and long-term planning
civil servants each representing one of the 13 municipal departments. It’s main task is to work on different studies in connection with past and current developments and make explorative forecasts of the 13 municipal activities: child care, schooling, social services, environmental protection, housing, landuse, transportation, immigrant services, parks and sportsgrounds, public libraries, culture and leisure, refuse collection, and electricity and water supply. (3) The ‘futures group’ consists of 15 leading planners whose main task is to prepare background studies on each of the ten environmental factors and develop alternative scenarios of the environment.16 About twice a year, the whole of the municipal executive council and the chiefs of the municipal departments together with other senior officials participate in workshops where the work of the three groups is reported. At each workshop, those attending take part in some form of group-exercise on different aspects of the municipal futures study. It was in connection with the workshop in spring, 1984 that a group exercise was carried out with the aim of examining the values of the participants. The design of the study Some 60 people were invited to the workshop. In advance, each received a copy of a report prepared by the working group and the futures group. The report consisted of trend analysis over the development of the municipal services during the post-war period, as well as an analysis of potential changes in the ten environmental factors.” Of the 60 invited, 41 participated in the group exercise. Of these 17 were politicians (which included the members of the internal reference group) and the rest were planners and municipal officials (including members of the working group and the futures group). The participants were divided into eight groups each consisting of about live people. As far as possible each group had a mixed composition of politicians and civil servants including women participants (of the 41 participants, only eight were women!). The group-exercise was divided into two phases. In the first phase, every group was asked to agree on ten different social changes which are likely to occur up to the year 2010. Every participant had a printed form in which he or she could write down these ten changes. The participants had at their disposal the futures group’s report about the future changes in the municipal services’ external environment. The agreement on ten changes in each group was preceded by a thorough discussion about all probable and desirable future developments. In the second phase of the exercise, each participant was asked to evaluate the actions the municipal government would have to undertake to meet these changes. Municipal actions are of two major types: If the change is considered desirable, the municipality should try to promote the change by increasing its If, on the other hand, the future change is contribution/participation. considered to be undesirable or negative, the municipality should counteract it in some way. It may also be possible that the participants reckon that a certain future change need not lead to an increase or decrease in the municipal contribution/participation from its current level. The municipal actions were divided into 12 sections (see Table 1) and the
FUTURES February 1999
57
Values in futuresstudies and long-term planning
TABLE 1. SOCIAL CHANGES AND SCORES CONTRlBUTlON/PARTlClPATlON
Group number:
NAME: 1
Syial
FOR MUNICIPAL
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
9
10
11
12
changes
3
s
6 7
participants
according 1 point 2 points 3 points 4 points 5 points 6 points 7 points
were asked to give a score for municipal to the following scale: = Current municipal completely = Current municipal considerable extent = Current municipal slightly = Current municipal present level = Current municipal slightly = Current municipal significantly = Current municipal extensively
contribution/participation be wound up
contribution/participation
to
contribution/participation
to be wound up to a
contribution/participation
to be decreased
contribution/participation
to be retained
contribution/participation
to be increased
contribution/participation
to be increased
contribution/participation
to be increased
Such a scoring exercise provides interesting information participant’s values in relation to future changes.
at the
about the individual
Presentation of the results One can theoretically expect that the number of social changes would total 80, ie ten per group. However the groups chose more or less the same social changes. In fact so strong was the consensus that with minor adjustments in wordings, the number of social changes was 11! These were: 1. 2.
Decrease in the length of working day from 8 to 6 hours/day. Increased use of computers and information technology in private public activities.
FUTURES February 1999
and
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Increase in the population of the municipality. Decrease in the population of the municipality. Increase in structural unemployment and a permanent reserve of unemployed. Increased demand for education for all types of activities, Increased environmental consciousness. Structural change in industrial activities-from large-scale to small-scale production. Increased impact of international trade and division of labour. Increased decentralization of the public sector. Increased service mindedness among the population.
The scores of all the participants were analysed with the help of computers. The results of the analysis are presented in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2 presents the average value of municipal contribution/participaton according to every sector Table 3 presents average values of municipal for all the participants. contribution/participation (added together) for six categories of participants to show differences in three respects: (1) politicians-civil servants; (2) left-wing and right-wing poIiticians; and (3) male and female participants. Table 2 shows the average score for each future change for the 12 municipal action areas. The last two columns show the added average value and standard deviation. Standard deviation for the average value for all municipal actions gives some idea about the spread between average values for each municipal
TABLE
2. AVERAGE VALUE OF MUNICIPAL CONTRlBUTlONIPARTICIPATlON PARTICIPANTS ACCORDING TO MUNICIPAL SECTORS
Decrease
in working
increased computers
use of
day
3.6
4.1
4.4
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.9
4.1
4.3
FOR ALL THE
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
0.4 0.4
4.0
4.3
4.3
5.4
4.4
4.1
4.4
.4.2 4.2
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.4
Population
increase
4.8
3.3
4.8
5.0
4.1
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.3
0.5
Population
decrease
4.2
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
0.2
4.2
4.3
5.2
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.4
4.1
5.2
4.3
4.6
0.5
4.3
4.1
4.1
6.0
4.4
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.8
4.4
4.4
0.6
Structural unemployment Increased demand for education Environment consciousness
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.6
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.0
6.2
4.7
0.8
Small scale production
4.9
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.3
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.2
4.8
0.3
Increased impact of international trade
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.9
4.6
3.9
4.1
4.1
3.8
4.5
4.3
4.8
4.3
0.3
Increased
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.2
0.2
decentralization
Increased service mindedness
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.3
4.4
5.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.5
0.3
Average value
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.9
4.4
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.4
-
FUTURES February 1988
TABLE
3. AVERAGE
VALUE OF MUNICIPAL CONTRlBUTlON/PARTlClPATlON DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF PARTICIPATION
FOR
Added average value for all municipal actions for: Future changes
All Civil Left-wing Right-wing Potiticians Servants politicians ~liticians Men Women ~~icipants
Decrease in working day
4.1
4.4
4.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
Increased use of computers Population increase Population decrease
4.3 4.1 4.3
4.4 4.5 3.9
4.2 -
4.4 -
4.3 4.1 4.3
4.6 4.9 4.2
4.4 4.3 4.0
Structural unemployment
4.7
4.5
5.4
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.6
Increased demand for education
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.4
4.7 4.9
4.6 4.6
4.9 5.0
4.6 4.8
4.7 4.9
4.8 4.6
4.7 4.8
Environmental consciousness Small scale production Increased impact of international trade Increased decentralization
4.2
4.3
-
-
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.2
Increased service mindedness Average value
4.2 4.4
4.7 4.4
4.6 2
4.3 -
4.2 4.4
4.0 4.5
4.5 4.4
Note: For politicians, only future changes for which all parties have given scores have been included in the table.
The greater the spread, the higher is the standard deviation. The figures for the standard deviation are really low. Table 3 shows that both politicians and pianners are cautious with regard to municipal intervention in connection with different future changes. The results vary with few exceptions in the interval 4 and 4.5 points, ie municipal intervention should be increased slightly. The added average value for municipal contribution/participation shows that the expected change in the scale of production would require the largest increase in municipal intervention. The issue of small-scale production enterprises and the future importance of the informal economy have been gaining interest among municipal decision makers and planners in Sweden. There is a feeling that municipalities wil1 have to play an increasingly greater role if the informal economy has any chance of solving unemployment problems in the local community. The only notable decrease in municipal contribution/participation is in the case of the increase in population and care for the elderly. It might be that the participants feel that the increase in population would lead to a greater number of elderly people being looked after by members of their own families. If, on the other hand, we look at the added average for each municipal activity, then ‘school services’ show the highest value for nearly all future changes. This again may reflect the fact that most participants feel that the municipal provision of school services in the past have had an important impact on the economic life of the municipality and this might be so even in the future. l8 activity.
FUTURES February 1986
There is no uniform difference between politicians and civil servants. In fact the differences between the two groups are very small, with a few exceptions. In the case of changes in the scale of production and structural unemployment, politicians envisage greater municipal contribution/participation. Civil servants on the other hand advocate greater municiple intervention in the case of increased service-mindedness among the population. In the case of population increase, civil servants advocate greater municipal participation than do politicians. In the case of a decrease in the population, civil servants in fact envisage a decline in municipal contribution whereas politicians a very slight increase. As far as the differences between left-wing and right-wing political parties are concerned, there is a weak tendentious difference. The socialist bloc expects a greater municipal intervention than the right-wing bloc. This is especially significant when it comes to labour market issues like the decrease in the working day and increase in structural unemployment. Differences between male and female participants do not show any uniform tendency. Even if the average value for municipal intervention is slightly greater for women than for men, since the number of women participating in the symposium was so small (eight out of 41 participants~, it is hardly possible to draw any conclusion from the results.
This values study does have some significant limitations. It examines values using a simplified set of variables rather than looking at the actual behaviour in complex organizational and political settings. Although such a snapshot study has obvious limitations, it indicates that it might be useful for politicians and planners to think more systematically about what their values are. Such exercises help planners and decision makers accept the idea that they cannot be value-free and that they should be open and critical about the values they bring to their analyses.ig An interesting feature of the Vasteras study is that politicians and civil servants operate within a value framework which exhibits values around the survival and prosperity of the organization which employs them. Another reason for the small difference in the variation of values is the dominating effect of professional socialization. Alterman and Page identify two main sources of values-those acquired by everyone through a process of general socialization and those acquired by planners through a process of professional socialization. Factors that affect general socialization are sex, age, social class, etc whereas professional socialization is affected by the planning education, professional role, career position, etc. The Vasteras study confirms Alterman and Page’s observations that professional socialization variables, especially professional role, have a strong impact on the planners’ values.** Another interesting feature of the Vasteras study is that decision makers and planners show a very cautious attitude towards future changes. They advocate that municip~ intervention should be retained at its current level or increased slightly. These results imply that the municipal leadership is devoted more or less to the continuance of the recent past. Having a top position in the urban government has a moderating effect on values. A somewhat critical explanation
FUTURES February 1986
of this tendency is put forward by Cullen and Knox: ‘Planners, then, do not initiate crucial changes in the long-term processes which shape man’s relationship with his material world. They make decisions and implement actions according to the .zeitgeist of the society to which they owe office and allegiance. In other words, they are manipulators of a status quo’.” The Gillivare study Background In autumn 1979, the municipal authorities in Gallivare decided to prepare a new structural plan for the urban centre to replace the older plan from 1965. Instead of preparing the plan in the conventional manner, it was decided to allow a maximum amount of citizen participation in the plan preparation. The result was a thorough inventory of Gallivare’s physical and social environment. The main reason for this approach to planning was the tremendous increase in the social problems in the urban communities following the rapid economic growth in the Swedish society during the postwar years. Until the middle of the in Gallivare as well as in other Swedish 1970~~ urban development municipalities was characterized by extensive building of new housing districts and provision of physical and social infrastructure with the help of public money. But since the latter half of the 1970s the growth rate has decreased significantly and municipalities have been compelled to decrease the use of resources for public services. Consequently there is an increased imbalance in welfare and social well-being between different localities within one and the same municipality. 22 The municipal authorities in Gallivare, by the new approach to planning, wanted to stimulate a community-wide debate about how to solve this imbalance. A second reason for this approach was the presentation of new legislation regarding social welfare, health services and physical environment. The main gist of this legislation was that municipalities in their planning should take greater consideration of social consequences, preventive measures and interplay between different sectors of the public services. The decision makers in GZllivare wanted to implement the essential ideas in this legislation in the new structural plan. Furthermore, the issue of urban renewal to improve living conditions, particularly of groups suffering from segregation, came to the fore in connection with the Council of Europe’s Urban Renewal Campaign. G%llivare was chosen as one of the five Swedish municipalities as participants in this programme. One of its main objectives was to plan urban renewal on the basis of social issues and active participation of citizens. This coincided well with the municipal authority’s ambitions in this direction. In order to obtain greatest possible citizen participation, the municipal authorities decided to arrange study circles for the citizens.23 The main objectives of these circles were: 0 0
to allow participants to describe the physical and social environment housing district; to analyze restrictions and possibilities to improve the environment;
FUTURES February 1388
of their and
o
to allow participants district.
to propose tangible
measures
to improve the housing
A specially appointed municipal committee for structural planning carried out a massive information campaign in all housing districts in the municipality. About 1% of the population (roughly 180 people) divided into 17 study circles participated in this extra-mural course arranged by the Workers’ Education Council between November 1980 and February 1981 Design of the study Within the framework of the plan preparation, a questionnaire-survey was carried out among the participants as well as in a control group of citizens (according to age and sex) who did not participate in the ‘course’. The questionnaire included 70 questions about social and economic status, employment, political attitudes and values as well as the interviewees’ opinions about the way structural plan was being prepared.‘* Some 360 people answered the questionnaire. The proportion of men and women was equal. In this article, the results of some 26 questions relating to political attitudes and values are presented. Besides asking the interviewees to define their political attitudes on a left-right ideological scale, they were also asked questions regarding their political resources, their interests in politics, centralization and decentralization of decision making, trust u distrust in public authorities and dependence v self-reliance. The answers were than related to the interviewees’ age, sex, social status and education. Presentation of the results G%llivare is a working class town, dominated by the mining industry. The socialist parties (the Social Democrats and the Communists) have a majority in the municipal assembly which means a preponderance of left-wing sympathies among the population, The left-wing sympathies among the participants is nearly twice as much as in the control group (64% as against 33%). This does imply that political interest among left-wing sympathisers is greater than among the right-wing population. As for the centr~ization-decentr~ization scale, a large majority in both participant and control group favoured decentralization of political and administrative powers. As concerns decentralization, 74% among the participants and 76% among the non-participants supported it. Furthermore, a majority of persons with clear left-wing sympathies among the participants and those with right-wing sympathies in the control group were for decentralization. The combined left-right ideological scale and centralization-decentralization dimension can be illustrated in Figure 1. In order to explain this remarkable constellation, it might be interesting to compare the members of the participant as well as the control group with the help of four conventional background variables namely sex, employment, education and age and four subjective characteristics namely distrust of public authorities, interest in politics, possession of ‘political resources’25 and selfreliance. The results of this comparison can be illustrated in Figure 2.
FUTURES February 1666
Values in futures studies and long-fen planning
Study circle participants
Non-participants
Centralization
0
kF T W I :
Centralliz
0
11%
15%
0
25%
49%
63
0
R
R
18%
A
H T
:
W
W
0
‘0
E
ii
0'
27%
Decentralization
A H
T
W I
l
49%
Decentralization
Figure 1. Left-right and centralization-decentralization ticipants and non-participants
values
among
study
circle
par-
loo r 90
lsi
Participants Non-participants
cl 80
60
10
0
a
C
e
9
h
a = proportion of women b = proportion of blue-collar workers c = proportion with secondary school education d = proportion of people born before 1940 e = distrust of public authority f = interest in politics g = political resources h = self-reliance
Figure 2. Comparison variables
FUTURES February 1999
between
the participants
and non-participants
according
to eight
As far as the conventional variables are concerned, the proportion of men and women is the same. In other respects, the members of the study circles are younger and better educated than in the control group, and a larger proportion are white collar workers. The differences are statistically significant but not specially pronounced. On the other hand there is a more pronounced difference between the two groups with respect to the subjective characteristics. As far as distrust of public authorities is concerned, there is no difference at all between the two groups. On the other hand, differences are significant with regard to interest in politics, possession of political resources and self-reliance. We can further analyse the dimension centralization-decentralization with respect to the subjective variables. In tb.e control group, the decentralists show a greater distrust of authorities and are more self-reliant. On the other hand, their interest in politics and political resources are not different from other groups among the interviewees. This indicates that among the population of Ggllivare, as a whole, there is a considerable number of people who do not use the available political channels to exercise their influence. They are more distrustful of public authorities but are more self-reliant and willing to use own resources to meet different types of crises. The participant group on the other hand, shows a different pattern in this respect. Even though the decentralists among the participants show a strong distrust of the authorities, they are less self-reliant. On the other hand, their available political resources are average but their interest in politics is considerable. This indicates that the decentralists among the participants in study circles are interested in politics but find it difficult to develop their interest within existing political organization. Their trust in public authorities is quite low and so is their reliance on own resources. This combination of decentralization values and subjective political characteristics can be illustrated with the help of Figure 3.
Decentralization
Decenrralization
i/
ii
Non-participants
Participants Figure 3. Subjective control group
political
characteristics
among
the decentralists
in participant
as Wall as
FUTURES February
1986
Values infutures
studies and long-term planning
65
Conclusion from the Giillivare study Despite the obvious limitation in drawing general conclusions from a value study of people in one single community, we can nevertheless make the following observations. The possibilities available for citizen participation in the planning process tend to be utilized more by well-educated, high-income groups. The new dimension in Swedish politics, namely the decentralizationcentralization issue is quite salient both among the ordinary citizens and those who are politically active. This feature differs however between left-wing and right-wing sympathisers. The decentralization ideas are widespread throughout the right-wing groups. But among left-wing sympathisers, the decentralization ideas are more prevalent among the members of new social movements. As far as the participants in our questionnaire survey can be regarded as the vanguard of a new political development, then their values support the hypothesis about this new dimension in Swedish politics.26 Another interesting aspect of the Gallivare study is the difference in selfreliance among ordinary citizens as represented by non-participants and politically active citizens as represented by participants in the study circles. Ordinary citizens show a higher level of self-reliance than those who are politically active. Moreover self-reliance among the former is expressed through a large number of non-institutionalized activities whereas the politically active citizens show a higher level of so-called ‘community self-reliance’ and are dependent on institutionalized activities.
Political values and predictions: concluding reflections Techniques of isolating and relating political values are difficult to develop. The studies so far available are unfortunately few and contradictory. The aim of our research has been to develop approaches for delineating individual values-both of planners and the subjects of plan-in order to understand the forces which work for stability or change in the urban communities in Sweden. We were also interested in finding if they can also be used for forecasting purposes. The most salient finding of our case studies has been the differences in the values of decision makers and planners on the one hand and the municipal citizens on the other. Although the two case studies were carried out in two different urban comunities, our studies confirm that the planners and decision makers seem to have been less affected by the new set of values which have developed, especially among the younger generation, in Sweden and other industrial countries. This new set of values, characterized by decentralization, environmental consciousness, a shorter working day, etc, is considered by the power elite as temporary, unrealistic and idealistic. Values therefore complicate planning since planners and the subjects of plans dwell in different value settings.” Recent Swedish studies suggest that a fundamental change in the values related to work has taken place and that this change is closely related to the
FUTURES February 1988
66
Values in futuresstudiesand long-termplanning
structural transformation of the Swedish society. In the pre-industrial and early industrial period, ‘inner world’ values, related to individual survival, prevailed. With the growth of the industrial society and the welfare state, these values were replaced by ‘outer world’ values related to social consciousness and solidarity. These values have been replaced in turn by ‘inner world’ values related to quality of life and personal achievement during the current development towards a post-industrial society. In order to understand this development and predict future values, it is necessary to understand structural changes in the society and their impact on individual values. Such analyses should be part and parcel of futures studies as well as long-term planning.” In sum, both futures studies and planning need to pay greater attention to different methods for delineating individual values. More research effort is needed to develop analytic tools to improve these methods. With the help of these, we might then be able to gather valuable knowledge about the values of the future in individual lives and to make average citizens a key element in the preparation of futures studies and long term plans.
Notes and references 1. Gordon R. Taylor, “Prediction and social change: the need for basis in theory”, Futures, 9, (5), October 1977, pages 404-414. 2. J. Fowles, “The problem of values in futures research”, Futures 9, (4), August 1977, pages 303-314. 3. Joe D. Cullen and Paul L. Knox, “The triumph of the eunuch: planners, urban managers and the suppression of political opposition”, Urban Aflairs Quurter~, 17, (2) December 1981 pages 149-172; Fowles, op tit, reference 2, pages 310-312; Betina Huber, “Images of the in Jib Fowles, ed, Handbook of Futures Research (London, Greenwood Press), 1978, future”, pages 179-224; Fred C. Ikle, “Social forecasting and the problem of changing values: with special reference to Soviet and Eastern European writings”, Futures, 3, (2), June 1971, pages 142-150; and Ian Miles and John Irvine, “Changing ways of life: costs, benefits and strategies”, Futures, 14, (l), February 1982 pages 11-23. 4. The article is based on two reports: Abdul Khakee, et al, Viisterar kommun ijamtiden (Viiteras Municipalilty in the Future), (V%.teras, Planning Department, Visteras Municipality, 1984); and Lars Dahlgren and Margareta Sundqvist, Generalplanering i Giilliuare-en utviirdring au aktivt medborgardeltagande (Master Planning in Giilliuare-An Evaluation of Active Citizen Planning), (Stockholm, The Swedish Council for Building Research, 1985). Uno Svedin and Bjijrn Wittrock, Methods in Future Studies: Problems and 5. Brita Schwartz,
6.
7. 8.
9. 10.
Applications (Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1982), pages 154-160. See also, Ian Miles, “The ideologies of futurists ” in J. Fowles, ed, Handbook of Futures Research (London, Greenwood Press, 1978), pages 67-97. See for example, Walter Korpi, “En ny dimension?” (“ new dimension?“), Sociologisk forskning, 26, (3-4), July-December 1980 pages 15-25; and S&en Holmberg, et al V%ljarna och kirnkraften (The Electorate and the Nuclear Power Issue), (Stockholm, Liber, 1977). Hans Zetterberg et al, Det osynliga kontmktet-en steudie i 80-tale&sarbetsliv (The Invisible ContractA Study of Working L;fe in 198Os), (Stockholm, Sifo, 1983). See Friberg and Galtung for an account of different types of environmental and other movements in Western Europe and their underlying alignments and values. Mats Friberg and Johan Galtung, ed, Riirelsema (Social Movements), (Stockholm, Akademilitteratur, 1984). See further David Loye, “Ideology and prediction”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 16, (5-8), July-December 1980, pages 229-242. See further Abdul Khakee, “Municipal planning in a mixed economy”, Environment and Planning, IO, (4), May 1978, pages 437-450.
FUTURES February 1966
“Stadens fdrvaltning” (“City management”), Sociologisk forsknins, 29, (3-4) 11. Erik Amnl, July-December 1983, pages 20-38. 12. See further Johan Galtung, Se&-reliance: A Strategy for Development (Geneva, Institute of Development Studies, 1980). 13. Riane T. Eisler, “Gylany, the balanced future”, Futures, 13, (6), December 1981, pages 499-507. See also Abby Peterson, The Gender-Sex L&tensions in Swedish Politics (UmeH, Department of Sociology, University of Umea, 1983). 14. The crisis in the Swedish welfare state has led to increasing scepticism towards the national urban policy and growing expectations and demands from citizens on the municipalities to help and solve their economic, social and cultural problems. The largest municipal futures studies programme has been launched by the Secretariat for Futures Studies. See “Municipalities and the future” (Secretariat for Futures Studies, Stockholm, 1983). 15. The Visteras-model in its entirety is presented in Abdul Khakee, “Futures-oriented municipal planning”, Tech~vio~i~ai Forecasting and Social Change, 28, (6), August 1985, pages 63-83. 16. The three groups are assisted by a futures studies unit consisting of two people: the head of the planning department and one of the authors (Khakee) working as research adviser. We have the responsibility for the overall conduct of the study and advise the groups on various techniques which are available during each phase of the futures study. 17. V&eras kommun iframtiden (Vasteras Municipality in the Future), Report No 2, (Visteras, Planning Department, Municipality of Vasteras, 1984). 18. The participants had access to the report by the working group which presented the past development in the municipality. The report specially emphasized the role of school services in the municipal development. 19. In fact many of the participants in the Vasteras exercise expressed the desire of conducting value studies as a part of the planning process. For similar observations elsewhere, see Peter Brown “Ethics and policy research”, Policy Analysis, 2, (Z), April-June 1976, pages 325-340 20. Rachel Alterman and John Page, “The ubiquity of values and the planning process”, Plan, 13, (l), January-March 1973, pages 13-26. 21. Cullen and Knox, op tit, reference 3, page 169; and similar conclusions have been drawn by Krishan Kumar, “Inventing the future in spite offuturology”, Futures, 4, (4) December 1972, pages 369-374. 22. The imbalance in social well-being has increased in nearly every municipality as well as between municipalities-es pecially in the stagnating regions in Northern Sweden. See also, Lars Dahlgren, ~~~~s~t~‘~ och ~0~~~~ (Social ~eve~o~t Plan&g and Local Cornrnu~i~~es~, (Umei;, Department of Sociology, University of Wme&, 1984). 23. Study circles were considered to function as a political channel between municipal planning authorities and the citizens. Compare this with Habermas’ analysis of channels between ‘system world’ and ‘living world’. Jiirgen Habermas, Theorie des Kommunikativen Handelns (Theory of Communicative Actions), (Frankfurt, Suhrkamp, 1981). 24. The evaluation was published by the Swedish Council for Building Research in Spring 1985, op tit, reference 4. 25. Political resources are measured in terms of (1) membership in political parties, trade unions, housing committees and other politically active movements; (2) active participation in public debates eg letter to the editor or other contributions in local newspapers and other mass media, and (3) active participation in public meetings, demonstrations and similar activities. 26. Compare this with Vedung’s hypothesis about new dimensions in the Swedish politics. Evert Vedung, “Tillv;ixt-ekologi igen” (“Growth-ecology again”), Sociologiskforskning, 27, (3), July-September 1981, pages 48-51. 27. In his study of values among American planners, Vasu found them to be si~i~cantIy more liberal than the American people at large. Michael Vasu, Politics and Planning: A Nbtiomzl Study of Amm’caa Plarmers (Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina Press, 1979). 28. See Zetterberg, Et al, op rit, reference 7.
FUTURES Februaty 1999
VALUES IN FUTURES STUDIES AND LONG-TERM PLANNING Two Swedish case studies Abdul
Khakee
and Lars Dahlgren
The past few years’ debate on the devolution of decision making in Swedish urban communities has increased the importance of examining values among planners and the eventual subjects of the plans. This article presents two case studies which show that the discrepancy in values not only complicates the planning process but also raises the need for further research in developing new techniques in delineating individual values. Keywords:
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS play an important in futures studies. Both activities involve ideas,
hopes
and dreams,
and are therefore
future studies; Sweden; long-term planning
role both in long-term planning the use of models which deal value-loaded.
Both
futures
and with
studies
and plans imply an attempt to impose past and current values on the future. Therefore it is imperative to understand what these values imply and how they change. Some authors place value considerations at the centre of such activities. Taylor,
for example,
writes:
If social and economic change is rooted in value change, we are wasting our time attempting to forecast the future unless we give a high priority to the study of value changes.’ The problem of value study or of long-term separate phases:
consideration occurs in nearly every phase of a futures planning. Fowles has delineated its occurrence in four
Abdul Khakee is senior lecturer in economics at the University of Urn&Department of Geography, S 901 87 Urn&Sweden. He also serves as a research adviser on strategic planning to several Swedish municipalities. He is the author of Development and Planning in Tanzania; Plannq in a Mixed Economy: The Case of Sweden; and Municipal Planning: Restrictions, Methods and Organizational Problems. Lars Dahigren is a research associate and lecturer in sociology at the University of Umea. He serves as a research adviser on community development tn several Swedish municipalities. He is the author of Social Development Planning and Local Communities; and Vulnerability and Self-Reliance.
0016-3287186/010052-16$03.0001986
Butterworth & Co(Publishers)
Ltd
FUTURESFebruary
1966
l o 0 e
defining the project area or planning problems; choosing goals or selecting among the alternatives under consideration; forecasting development, including the choice of forecasting methods; and developing and evaluating strategies of intervention.’
The need for examining values occurs in two contexts. Besides examining the values of the futurologists and planners in order to find out which are and are not represented, and how much faith one can put on the results of their studies, it is necessary to analyse variation of values in the society under examination. Cullen and Knox, Fowles, Huber, Ikle, Miles and Irvine have presented various ways of studying changing values3 These methods can be summarized in three broad categories. First, the survey of the current values of life and determination of the factors that have affected changes in them. Changes in future values can be determined through empirical inquiries into individual and collective images of the future. Second, manipulation of value shifts. This allows futurists or planners to design policies which may alter future values, especially those which are contemporarily superficial. And last, creation of flexible future images in which the values of various groups and of the whole society may be assumed to change, together with descriptions of assumed implications of such changes. Futures studies and long-term plans are constructed with as much opportunity for review as possible. In this article, we present two case studies. The first looks at the values of planners and politicians engaged in futures-oriented municipal lanning in the municipality of Vasteras in central Sweden. The second examines values among two groups of municipal citizens, one of which attended study circles in order to increase participants’ knowledge of long-term planning and hopefully increase their participation in community planning, while the second group did not participate in such circles. The second case study was conducted in the municipality of G%llivare in Northern Sweden.4 Various attempts have been made to classify difterent types of values. Schwartz and her colleagues distinguish between three types of values: political, professional and paradigmatic. 5 In this paper the major emphasis has been put on the political values since we believe that these values condition the way in which a futures study or a planning process is conducted. In studying the political values in the two case studies, we have considered several dimensions. Even though the left-right ideological scale is considered adequate for defining the position of political parties, more recently, political scientists and sociologists have presented other dimensions which complicate the basic left-right polarity. 6 The new dimensions have been defined in various ways with the help of such terms as decentralization-centralization of political power, ecological balance-economic growth, interregional and international interdependence u self-reliance, inner and outer world values, and so on. 7 These new dimensions are the result of new social movements like feminism, environment~ism and the peace movement.a As mentioned above, the left-right dimension is the most commonly used when discussing political values. Quite often this dimension is visualized as norm-maintaining v norm-changing alignment. Popularly, norm-maintaining
FUTURES February 1986
is equated with conservatism and norm-changing with radicalism. This way of interpreting left-right polarity is not always correct. It is true that conservatism, in a sense, implies the retention of the status quo whereas radicalism may stand for fundamental inte~entions in the society instead of gradual change-but this cannot always be related to the left-right ideological scale.g The devolution of political and administrative power has been an important issue in the public debate on planning and decision making in Sweden. Differing from many other countries in Western Europe, the expansion of the public sector in the postwar period in Sweden has resulted in the transfer of a large number of activities from central to local government. However, this decentralization has been accompanied by the introduction of special legislations, tighter control of government subsidies to the municipalities and central government’s management of municipal activities. Much of urban development in Sweden has been directed by a national urban policy. This policy has been successful in times of rapid economic growth and political stability, but as political and economic uncertainties have increased, so has scepticism about the centralization of political decision making with regards to urban development. Another aspect of the centralization-decentralization debate came in the wake of the municipal merger reform in 1974, when the number of municipalities was reduced from roughly 1000 to 284 with a population threshold of 8000 inhabitants considered necessary for the efficient management of public service. A serious by-product of this reform was greater alienation of citizens from the decision-making apparatus in the new municipalities. Both these factors have been important in the centralization-decentralization debate in Sweden. lo Formally, the centralization-decentralization dimension was related to left-right ideology. A majority of the decentralists were reckoned to belong to the Center Party (the Agrarians) who have predominantly right-wing values. This, however, is no longer true. More recently a new political party-the Environmental Party-has appeared on the political scene in Sweden. It represents a combination of rightand left-wing ideals and is difficult to classify on a right-left scale. Furthermore, the ruling Social Democratic Party which has been a strong supporter of centralization has started re-examining its position on the relationship between central and local government. SO this dimension has two aspects. Decentralization not only implies greater power for subsidiary or local bodies in relation to the central government, but it also implies delegation of power within the local community. Another dimension of political values which has been gaining in importance is the issue of continued reliance on regional and international division of labour u In the wake of environmental movements there has greater self-reliance. emerged a new type of values such as living in harmony with nature and a lack of trust of government, big business, political parties and trade unions. An underlying belief has been reliance on one’s own resources for a more meaningful life. This type of self-reliance can be termed ‘progressive selfreliance’. Among politicians and planners in municipalities situated in with industrially stagnant regions, there has been increasing disillusionment central government’s ability to provide adequate aid and promote development. Self-reliance in this case implies increased dependence on local community’s FUTURES February 1986
Values in fulures
sludies and long-term planning
55
resources but without any commitment to a particular type of development. This can be described as ‘community self-reliance’. l2 but nevertheless an important feature in the Not of great relevance, discussion of political values, is the distinction between masculine (androcratic) and feminine (gynecratic) values. Futures studies and planning have been traditionally dominated by masculine values. More recently, several futures studies have had feminine values as a starting point. It is too early to discuss the impact of gynecratism on political forces and alignments, however, androcratic-gynecratic polarity has become an important dimension in recent political debate.i3 The rest of this article is divided into three sections: the first presents the Vasteras study, while the second presents the Gallivare study. The concluding section is a discussion of the major problems in surveying values among different categories of people and offers suggestions of key issues for further study. The Visteras study Background Since 1983, Vasteras is one of some 50 municipalities in Sweden working with municipal futures studies. l4 The focus of the Vasteras model is to discover a pedagogical process that uses futures studies not only to generate knowledge about the future but also to enhance the insight of planners and decision makers through their direct participation in the study process. This in turn implies a successive choice of techniques as the issues under study get clarified and as planners and decision makers involved in the study obtain better understanding of the possible approaches to solving various problems. The Vasteras model is divided into six interrelated operations: (1) review of current planning and decision making in the municipality; (2) examination of methodological issues and their orientation among planners and decision makers; (3) selection of study objects and identification of environmental variables; (4) evaluation of past and current development and explorative forecasts of study objects; (5) analysis of alternative developments of the environment; (6) evaluation of alternative futures of study objects.15 The model is in the process of being applied and the planners and decision makers have chosen the municipal services as the study object, since the municipal government exercises a considerable amount of control over these activities. The selection of this study object was preceded by careful consideration of alternative study objects in a number of brainstorming sessions with the planners and politicians. At the same time ten environmental factors were identified as being crucial for the future development of the municipal services. They are: economy, labour market, information technology, political structure, regional structure, societal values, commercial services, education, demographic changes and transportation. The municipal executive council has appointed three groups. (1) The ‘internal reference group’ consists of leading politicians from all political parties. The group has overall political responsibility for the futures study. It participates in all relevant activities including brainstorming sessions, seminars, preparation of future biographies, etc. (2) The ‘working group’ consists of 13
FUTURES February 1966
56
Values infulures studies and long-term planning
civil servants each representing one of the 13 municipal departments. It’s main task is to work on different studies in connection with past and current developments and make explorative forecasts of the 13 municipal activities: child care, schooling, social services, environmental protection, housing, landuse, transportation, immigrant services, parks and sportsgrounds, public libraries, culture and leisure, refuse collection, and electricity and water supply. (3) The ‘futures group’ consists of 15 leading planners whose main task is to prepare background studies on each of the ten environmental factors and develop alternative scenarios of the environment.16 About twice a year, the whole of the municipal executive council and the chiefs of the municipal departments together with other senior officials participate in workshops where the work of the three groups is reported. At each workshop, those attending take part in some form of group-exercise on different aspects of the municipal futures study. It was in connection with the workshop in spring, 1984 that a group exercise was carried out with the aim of examining the values of the participants. The design of the study Some 60 people were invited to the workshop. In advance, each received a copy of a report prepared by the working group and the futures group. The report consisted of trend analysis over the development of the municipal services during the post-war period, as well as an analysis of potential changes in the ten environmental factors.” Of the 60 invited, 41 participated in the group exercise. Of these 17 were politicians (which included the members of the internal reference group) and the rest were planners and municipal officials (including members of the working group and the futures group). The participants were divided into eight groups each consisting of about live people. As far as possible each group had a mixed composition of politicians and civil servants including women participants (of the 41 participants, only eight were women!). The group-exercise was divided into two phases. In the first phase, every group was asked to agree on ten different social changes which are likely to occur up to the year 2010. Every participant had a printed form in which he or she could write down these ten changes. The participants had at their disposal the futures group’s report about the future changes in the municipal services’ external environment. The agreement on ten changes in each group was preceded by a thorough discussion about all probable and desirable future developments. In the second phase of the exercise, each participant was asked to evaluate the actions the municipal government would have to undertake to meet these changes. Municipal actions are of two major types: If the change is considered desirable, the municipality should try to promote the change by increasing its If, on the other hand, the future change is contribution/participation. considered to be undesirable or negative, the municipality should counteract it in some way. It may also be possible that the participants reckon that a certain future change need not lead to an increase or decrease in the municipal contribution/participation from its current level. The municipal actions were divided into 12 sections (see Table 1) and the
FUTURES February 1999
57
Values in futuresstudies and long-term planning
TABLE 1. SOCIAL CHANGES AND SCORES CONTRlBUTlON/PARTlClPATlON
Group number:
NAME: 1
Syial
FOR MUNICIPAL
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
9
10
11
12
changes
3
s
6 7
participants
according 1 point 2 points 3 points 4 points 5 points 6 points 7 points
were asked to give a score for municipal to the following scale: = Current municipal completely = Current municipal considerable extent = Current municipal slightly = Current municipal present level = Current municipal slightly = Current municipal significantly = Current municipal extensively
contribution/participation be wound up
contribution/participation
to
contribution/participation
to be wound up to a
contribution/participation
to be decreased
contribution/participation
to be retained
contribution/participation
to be increased
contribution/participation
to be increased
contribution/participation
to be increased
Such a scoring exercise provides interesting information participant’s values in relation to future changes.
at the
about the individual
Presentation of the results One can theoretically expect that the number of social changes would total 80, ie ten per group. However the groups chose more or less the same social changes. In fact so strong was the consensus that with minor adjustments in wordings, the number of social changes was 11! These were: 1. 2.
Decrease in the length of working day from 8 to 6 hours/day. Increased use of computers and information technology in private public activities.
FUTURES February 1999
and
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Increase in the population of the municipality. Decrease in the population of the municipality. Increase in structural unemployment and a permanent reserve of unemployed. Increased demand for education for all types of activities, Increased environmental consciousness. Structural change in industrial activities-from large-scale to small-scale production. Increased impact of international trade and division of labour. Increased decentralization of the public sector. Increased service mindedness among the population.
The scores of all the participants were analysed with the help of computers. The results of the analysis are presented in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2 presents the average value of municipal contribution/participaton according to every sector Table 3 presents average values of municipal for all the participants. contribution/participation (added together) for six categories of participants to show differences in three respects: (1) politicians-civil servants; (2) left-wing and right-wing poIiticians; and (3) male and female participants. Table 2 shows the average score for each future change for the 12 municipal action areas. The last two columns show the added average value and standard deviation. Standard deviation for the average value for all municipal actions gives some idea about the spread between average values for each municipal
TABLE
2. AVERAGE VALUE OF MUNICIPAL CONTRlBUTlONIPARTICIPATlON PARTICIPANTS ACCORDING TO MUNICIPAL SECTORS
Decrease
in working
increased computers
use of
day
3.6
4.1
4.4
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.9
4.1
4.3
FOR ALL THE
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
0.4 0.4
4.0
4.3
4.3
5.4
4.4
4.1
4.4
.4.2 4.2
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.4
Population
increase
4.8
3.3
4.8
5.0
4.1
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.3
0.5
Population
decrease
4.2
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
0.2
4.2
4.3
5.2
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.4
4.1
5.2
4.3
4.6
0.5
4.3
4.1
4.1
6.0
4.4
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.8
4.4
4.4
0.6
Structural unemployment Increased demand for education Environment consciousness
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.6
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.0
6.2
4.7
0.8
Small scale production
4.9
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.3
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.2
4.8
0.3
Increased impact of international trade
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.9
4.6
3.9
4.1
4.1
3.8
4.5
4.3
4.8
4.3
0.3
Increased
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.2
0.2
decentralization
Increased service mindedness
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.3
4.4
5.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.5
0.3
Average value
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.9
4.4
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.4
-
FUTURES February 1988
TABLE
3. AVERAGE
VALUE OF MUNICIPAL CONTRlBUTlON/PARTlClPATlON DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF PARTICIPATION
FOR
Added average value for all municipal actions for: Future changes
All Civil Left-wing Right-wing Potiticians Servants politicians ~liticians Men Women ~~icipants
Decrease in working day
4.1
4.4
4.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
Increased use of computers Population increase Population decrease
4.3 4.1 4.3
4.4 4.5 3.9
4.2 -
4.4 -
4.3 4.1 4.3
4.6 4.9 4.2
4.4 4.3 4.0
Structural unemployment
4.7
4.5
5.4
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.6
Increased demand for education
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.4
4.7 4.9
4.6 4.6
4.9 5.0
4.6 4.8
4.7 4.9
4.8 4.6
4.7 4.8
Environmental consciousness Small scale production Increased impact of international trade Increased decentralization
4.2
4.3
-
-
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.2
Increased service mindedness Average value
4.2 4.4
4.7 4.4
4.6 2
4.3 -
4.2 4.4
4.0 4.5
4.5 4.4
Note: For politicians, only future changes for which all parties have given scores have been included in the table.
The greater the spread, the higher is the standard deviation. The figures for the standard deviation are really low. Table 3 shows that both politicians and pianners are cautious with regard to municipal intervention in connection with different future changes. The results vary with few exceptions in the interval 4 and 4.5 points, ie municipal intervention should be increased slightly. The added average value for municipal contribution/participation shows that the expected change in the scale of production would require the largest increase in municipal intervention. The issue of small-scale production enterprises and the future importance of the informal economy have been gaining interest among municipal decision makers and planners in Sweden. There is a feeling that municipalities wil1 have to play an increasingly greater role if the informal economy has any chance of solving unemployment problems in the local community. The only notable decrease in municipal contribution/participation is in the case of the increase in population and care for the elderly. It might be that the participants feel that the increase in population would lead to a greater number of elderly people being looked after by members of their own families. If, on the other hand, we look at the added average for each municipal activity, then ‘school services’ show the highest value for nearly all future changes. This again may reflect the fact that most participants feel that the municipal provision of school services in the past have had an important impact on the economic life of the municipality and this might be so even in the future. l8 activity.
FUTURES February 1986
There is no uniform difference between politicians and civil servants. In fact the differences between the two groups are very small, with a few exceptions. In the case of changes in the scale of production and structural unemployment, politicians envisage greater municipal contribution/participation. Civil servants on the other hand advocate greater municiple intervention in the case of increased service-mindedness among the population. In the case of population increase, civil servants advocate greater municipal participation than do politicians. In the case of a decrease in the population, civil servants in fact envisage a decline in municipal contribution whereas politicians a very slight increase. As far as the differences between left-wing and right-wing political parties are concerned, there is a weak tendentious difference. The socialist bloc expects a greater municipal intervention than the right-wing bloc. This is especially significant when it comes to labour market issues like the decrease in the working day and increase in structural unemployment. Differences between male and female participants do not show any uniform tendency. Even if the average value for municipal intervention is slightly greater for women than for men, since the number of women participating in the symposium was so small (eight out of 41 participants~, it is hardly possible to draw any conclusion from the results.
This values study does have some significant limitations. It examines values using a simplified set of variables rather than looking at the actual behaviour in complex organizational and political settings. Although such a snapshot study has obvious limitations, it indicates that it might be useful for politicians and planners to think more systematically about what their values are. Such exercises help planners and decision makers accept the idea that they cannot be value-free and that they should be open and critical about the values they bring to their analyses.ig An interesting feature of the Vasteras study is that politicians and civil servants operate within a value framework which exhibits values around the survival and prosperity of the organization which employs them. Another reason for the small difference in the variation of values is the dominating effect of professional socialization. Alterman and Page identify two main sources of values-those acquired by everyone through a process of general socialization and those acquired by planners through a process of professional socialization. Factors that affect general socialization are sex, age, social class, etc whereas professional socialization is affected by the planning education, professional role, career position, etc. The Vasteras study confirms Alterman and Page’s observations that professional socialization variables, especially professional role, have a strong impact on the planners’ values.** Another interesting feature of the Vasteras study is that decision makers and planners show a very cautious attitude towards future changes. They advocate that municip~ intervention should be retained at its current level or increased slightly. These results imply that the municipal leadership is devoted more or less to the continuance of the recent past. Having a top position in the urban government has a moderating effect on values. A somewhat critical explanation
FUTURES February 1986
of this tendency is put forward by Cullen and Knox: ‘Planners, then, do not initiate crucial changes in the long-term processes which shape man’s relationship with his material world. They make decisions and implement actions according to the .zeitgeist of the society to which they owe office and allegiance. In other words, they are manipulators of a status quo’.” The Gillivare study Background In autumn 1979, the municipal authorities in Gallivare decided to prepare a new structural plan for the urban centre to replace the older plan from 1965. Instead of preparing the plan in the conventional manner, it was decided to allow a maximum amount of citizen participation in the plan preparation. The result was a thorough inventory of Gallivare’s physical and social environment. The main reason for this approach to planning was the tremendous increase in the social problems in the urban communities following the rapid economic growth in the Swedish society during the postwar years. Until the middle of the in Gallivare as well as in other Swedish 1970~~ urban development municipalities was characterized by extensive building of new housing districts and provision of physical and social infrastructure with the help of public money. But since the latter half of the 1970s the growth rate has decreased significantly and municipalities have been compelled to decrease the use of resources for public services. Consequently there is an increased imbalance in welfare and social well-being between different localities within one and the same municipality. 22 The municipal authorities in Gallivare, by the new approach to planning, wanted to stimulate a community-wide debate about how to solve this imbalance. A second reason for this approach was the presentation of new legislation regarding social welfare, health services and physical environment. The main gist of this legislation was that municipalities in their planning should take greater consideration of social consequences, preventive measures and interplay between different sectors of the public services. The decision makers in GZllivare wanted to implement the essential ideas in this legislation in the new structural plan. Furthermore, the issue of urban renewal to improve living conditions, particularly of groups suffering from segregation, came to the fore in connection with the Council of Europe’s Urban Renewal Campaign. G%llivare was chosen as one of the five Swedish municipalities as participants in this programme. One of its main objectives was to plan urban renewal on the basis of social issues and active participation of citizens. This coincided well with the municipal authority’s ambitions in this direction. In order to obtain greatest possible citizen participation, the municipal authorities decided to arrange study circles for the citizens.23 The main objectives of these circles were: 0 0
to allow participants to describe the physical and social environment housing district; to analyze restrictions and possibilities to improve the environment;
FUTURES February 1388
of their and
o
to allow participants district.
to propose tangible
measures
to improve the housing
A specially appointed municipal committee for structural planning carried out a massive information campaign in all housing districts in the municipality. About 1% of the population (roughly 180 people) divided into 17 study circles participated in this extra-mural course arranged by the Workers’ Education Council between November 1980 and February 1981 Design of the study Within the framework of the plan preparation, a questionnaire-survey was carried out among the participants as well as in a control group of citizens (according to age and sex) who did not participate in the ‘course’. The questionnaire included 70 questions about social and economic status, employment, political attitudes and values as well as the interviewees’ opinions about the way structural plan was being prepared.‘* Some 360 people answered the questionnaire. The proportion of men and women was equal. In this article, the results of some 26 questions relating to political attitudes and values are presented. Besides asking the interviewees to define their political attitudes on a left-right ideological scale, they were also asked questions regarding their political resources, their interests in politics, centralization and decentralization of decision making, trust u distrust in public authorities and dependence v self-reliance. The answers were than related to the interviewees’ age, sex, social status and education. Presentation of the results G%llivare is a working class town, dominated by the mining industry. The socialist parties (the Social Democrats and the Communists) have a majority in the municipal assembly which means a preponderance of left-wing sympathies among the population, The left-wing sympathies among the participants is nearly twice as much as in the control group (64% as against 33%). This does imply that political interest among left-wing sympathisers is greater than among the right-wing population. As for the centr~ization-decentr~ization scale, a large majority in both participant and control group favoured decentralization of political and administrative powers. As concerns decentralization, 74% among the participants and 76% among the non-participants supported it. Furthermore, a majority of persons with clear left-wing sympathies among the participants and those with right-wing sympathies in the control group were for decentralization. The combined left-right ideological scale and centralization-decentralization dimension can be illustrated in Figure 1. In order to explain this remarkable constellation, it might be interesting to compare the members of the participant as well as the control group with the help of four conventional background variables namely sex, employment, education and age and four subjective characteristics namely distrust of public authorities, interest in politics, possession of ‘political resources’25 and selfreliance. The results of this comparison can be illustrated in Figure 2.
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Values in futures studies and long-fen planning
Study circle participants
Non-participants
Centralization
0
kF T W I :
Centralliz
0
11%
15%
0
25%
49%
63
0
R
R
18%
A
H T
:
W
W
0
‘0
E
ii
0'
27%
Decentralization
A H
T
W I
l
49%
Decentralization
Figure 1. Left-right and centralization-decentralization ticipants and non-participants
values
among
study
circle
par-
loo r 90
lsi
Participants Non-participants
cl 80
60
10
0
a
C
e
9
h
a = proportion of women b = proportion of blue-collar workers c = proportion with secondary school education d = proportion of people born before 1940 e = distrust of public authority f = interest in politics g = political resources h = self-reliance
Figure 2. Comparison variables
FUTURES February 1999
between
the participants
and non-participants
according
to eight
As far as the conventional variables are concerned, the proportion of men and women is the same. In other respects, the members of the study circles are younger and better educated than in the control group, and a larger proportion are white collar workers. The differences are statistically significant but not specially pronounced. On the other hand there is a more pronounced difference between the two groups with respect to the subjective characteristics. As far as distrust of public authorities is concerned, there is no difference at all between the two groups. On the other hand, differences are significant with regard to interest in politics, possession of political resources and self-reliance. We can further analyse the dimension centralization-decentralization with respect to the subjective variables. In tb.e control group, the decentralists show a greater distrust of authorities and are more self-reliant. On the other hand, their interest in politics and political resources are not different from other groups among the interviewees. This indicates that among the population of Ggllivare, as a whole, there is a considerable number of people who do not use the available political channels to exercise their influence. They are more distrustful of public authorities but are more self-reliant and willing to use own resources to meet different types of crises. The participant group on the other hand, shows a different pattern in this respect. Even though the decentralists among the participants show a strong distrust of the authorities, they are less self-reliant. On the other hand, their available political resources are average but their interest in politics is considerable. This indicates that the decentralists among the participants in study circles are interested in politics but find it difficult to develop their interest within existing political organization. Their trust in public authorities is quite low and so is their reliance on own resources. This combination of decentralization values and subjective political characteristics can be illustrated with the help of Figure 3.
Decentralization
Decenrralization
i/
ii
Non-participants
Participants Figure 3. Subjective control group
political
characteristics
among
the decentralists
in participant
as Wall as
FUTURES February
1986
Values infutures
studies and long-term planning
65
Conclusion from the Giillivare study Despite the obvious limitation in drawing general conclusions from a value study of people in one single community, we can nevertheless make the following observations. The possibilities available for citizen participation in the planning process tend to be utilized more by well-educated, high-income groups. The new dimension in Swedish politics, namely the decentralizationcentralization issue is quite salient both among the ordinary citizens and those who are politically active. This feature differs however between left-wing and right-wing sympathisers. The decentralization ideas are widespread throughout the right-wing groups. But among left-wing sympathisers, the decentralization ideas are more prevalent among the members of new social movements. As far as the participants in our questionnaire survey can be regarded as the vanguard of a new political development, then their values support the hypothesis about this new dimension in Swedish politics.26 Another interesting aspect of the Gallivare study is the difference in selfreliance among ordinary citizens as represented by non-participants and politically active citizens as represented by participants in the study circles. Ordinary citizens show a higher level of self-reliance than those who are politically active. Moreover self-reliance among the former is expressed through a large number of non-institutionalized activities whereas the politically active citizens show a higher level of so-called ‘community self-reliance’ and are dependent on institutionalized activities.
Political values and predictions: concluding reflections Techniques of isolating and relating political values are difficult to develop. The studies so far available are unfortunately few and contradictory. The aim of our research has been to develop approaches for delineating individual values-both of planners and the subjects of plan-in order to understand the forces which work for stability or change in the urban communities in Sweden. We were also interested in finding if they can also be used for forecasting purposes. The most salient finding of our case studies has been the differences in the values of decision makers and planners on the one hand and the municipal citizens on the other. Although the two case studies were carried out in two different urban comunities, our studies confirm that the planners and decision makers seem to have been less affected by the new set of values which have developed, especially among the younger generation, in Sweden and other industrial countries. This new set of values, characterized by decentralization, environmental consciousness, a shorter working day, etc, is considered by the power elite as temporary, unrealistic and idealistic. Values therefore complicate planning since planners and the subjects of plans dwell in different value settings.” Recent Swedish studies suggest that a fundamental change in the values related to work has taken place and that this change is closely related to the
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66
Values in futuresstudiesand long-termplanning
structural transformation of the Swedish society. In the pre-industrial and early industrial period, ‘inner world’ values, related to individual survival, prevailed. With the growth of the industrial society and the welfare state, these values were replaced by ‘outer world’ values related to social consciousness and solidarity. These values have been replaced in turn by ‘inner world’ values related to quality of life and personal achievement during the current development towards a post-industrial society. In order to understand this development and predict future values, it is necessary to understand structural changes in the society and their impact on individual values. Such analyses should be part and parcel of futures studies as well as long-term planning.” In sum, both futures studies and planning need to pay greater attention to different methods for delineating individual values. More research effort is needed to develop analytic tools to improve these methods. With the help of these, we might then be able to gather valuable knowledge about the values of the future in individual lives and to make average citizens a key element in the preparation of futures studies and long term plans.
Notes and references 1. Gordon R. Taylor, “Prediction and social change: the need for basis in theory”, Futures, 9, (5), October 1977, pages 404-414. 2. J. Fowles, “The problem of values in futures research”, Futures 9, (4), August 1977, pages 303-314. 3. Joe D. Cullen and Paul L. Knox, “The triumph of the eunuch: planners, urban managers and the suppression of political opposition”, Urban Aflairs Quurter~, 17, (2) December 1981 pages 149-172; Fowles, op tit, reference 2, pages 310-312; Betina Huber, “Images of the in Jib Fowles, ed, Handbook of Futures Research (London, Greenwood Press), 1978, future”, pages 179-224; Fred C. Ikle, “Social forecasting and the problem of changing values: with special reference to Soviet and Eastern European writings”, Futures, 3, (2), June 1971, pages 142-150; and Ian Miles and John Irvine, “Changing ways of life: costs, benefits and strategies”, Futures, 14, (l), February 1982 pages 11-23. 4. The article is based on two reports: Abdul Khakee, et al, Viisterar kommun ijamtiden (Viiteras Municipalilty in the Future), (V%.teras, Planning Department, Visteras Municipality, 1984); and Lars Dahlgren and Margareta Sundqvist, Generalplanering i Giilliuare-en utviirdring au aktivt medborgardeltagande (Master Planning in Giilliuare-An Evaluation of Active Citizen Planning), (Stockholm, The Swedish Council for Building Research, 1985). Uno Svedin and Bjijrn Wittrock, Methods in Future Studies: Problems and 5. Brita Schwartz,
6.
7. 8.
9. 10.
Applications (Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1982), pages 154-160. See also, Ian Miles, “The ideologies of futurists ” in J. Fowles, ed, Handbook of Futures Research (London, Greenwood Press, 1978), pages 67-97. See for example, Walter Korpi, “En ny dimension?” (“ new dimension?“), Sociologisk forskning, 26, (3-4), July-December 1980 pages 15-25; and S&en Holmberg, et al V%ljarna och kirnkraften (The Electorate and the Nuclear Power Issue), (Stockholm, Liber, 1977). Hans Zetterberg et al, Det osynliga kontmktet-en steudie i 80-tale&sarbetsliv (The Invisible ContractA Study of Working L;fe in 198Os), (Stockholm, Sifo, 1983). See Friberg and Galtung for an account of different types of environmental and other movements in Western Europe and their underlying alignments and values. Mats Friberg and Johan Galtung, ed, Riirelsema (Social Movements), (Stockholm, Akademilitteratur, 1984). See further David Loye, “Ideology and prediction”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 16, (5-8), July-December 1980, pages 229-242. See further Abdul Khakee, “Municipal planning in a mixed economy”, Environment and Planning, IO, (4), May 1978, pages 437-450.
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“Stadens fdrvaltning” (“City management”), Sociologisk forsknins, 29, (3-4) 11. Erik Amnl, July-December 1983, pages 20-38. 12. See further Johan Galtung, Se&-reliance: A Strategy for Development (Geneva, Institute of Development Studies, 1980). 13. Riane T. Eisler, “Gylany, the balanced future”, Futures, 13, (6), December 1981, pages 499-507. See also Abby Peterson, The Gender-Sex L&tensions in Swedish Politics (UmeH, Department of Sociology, University of Umea, 1983). 14. The crisis in the Swedish welfare state has led to increasing scepticism towards the national urban policy and growing expectations and demands from citizens on the municipalities to help and solve their economic, social and cultural problems. The largest municipal futures studies programme has been launched by the Secretariat for Futures Studies. See “Municipalities and the future” (Secretariat for Futures Studies, Stockholm, 1983). 15. The Visteras-model in its entirety is presented in Abdul Khakee, “Futures-oriented municipal planning”, Tech~vio~i~ai Forecasting and Social Change, 28, (6), August 1985, pages 63-83. 16. The three groups are assisted by a futures studies unit consisting of two people: the head of the planning department and one of the authors (Khakee) working as research adviser. We have the responsibility for the overall conduct of the study and advise the groups on various techniques which are available during each phase of the futures study. 17. V&eras kommun iframtiden (Vasteras Municipality in the Future), Report No 2, (Visteras, Planning Department, Municipality of Vasteras, 1984). 18. The participants had access to the report by the working group which presented the past development in the municipality. The report specially emphasized the role of school services in the municipal development. 19. In fact many of the participants in the Vasteras exercise expressed the desire of conducting value studies as a part of the planning process. For similar observations elsewhere, see Peter Brown “Ethics and policy research”, Policy Analysis, 2, (Z), April-June 1976, pages 325-340 20. Rachel Alterman and John Page, “The ubiquity of values and the planning process”, Plan, 13, (l), January-March 1973, pages 13-26. 21. Cullen and Knox, op tit, reference 3, page 169; and similar conclusions have been drawn by Krishan Kumar, “Inventing the future in spite offuturology”, Futures, 4, (4) December 1972, pages 369-374. 22. The imbalance in social well-being has increased in nearly every municipality as well as between municipalities-es pecially in the stagnating regions in Northern Sweden. See also, Lars Dahlgren, ~~~~s~t~‘~ och ~0~~~~ (Social ~eve~o~t Plan&g and Local Cornrnu~i~~es~, (Umei;, Department of Sociology, University of Wme&, 1984). 23. Study circles were considered to function as a political channel between municipal planning authorities and the citizens. Compare this with Habermas’ analysis of channels between ‘system world’ and ‘living world’. Jiirgen Habermas, Theorie des Kommunikativen Handelns (Theory of Communicative Actions), (Frankfurt, Suhrkamp, 1981). 24. The evaluation was published by the Swedish Council for Building Research in Spring 1985, op tit, reference 4. 25. Political resources are measured in terms of (1) membership in political parties, trade unions, housing committees and other politically active movements; (2) active participation in public debates eg letter to the editor or other contributions in local newspapers and other mass media, and (3) active participation in public meetings, demonstrations and similar activities. 26. Compare this with Vedung’s hypothesis about new dimensions in the Swedish politics. Evert Vedung, “Tillv;ixt-ekologi igen” (“Growth-ecology again”), Sociologiskforskning, 27, (3), July-September 1981, pages 48-51. 27. In his study of values among American planners, Vasu found them to be si~i~cantIy more liberal than the American people at large. Michael Vasu, Politics and Planning: A Nbtiomzl Study of Amm’caa Plarmers (Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina Press, 1979). 28. See Zetterberg, Et al, op rit, reference 7.
FUTURES Februaty 1999