Volcanic disasters and incidents: A new database

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191 – 233 www.elsevier.com/locate/jvolgeores

Volcanic disasters and incidents: A new database C.S. Witham* Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK Received 29 June 2004; received in revised form 26 April 2005; accepted 27 April 2005

Abstract A new database on human mortality and morbidity, and civil evacuations arising from volcanic activity is presented. The aim is to quantify the human impacts of volcanic phenomena during the 20th Century. Data include numbers of deaths, injuries, evacuees and people made homeless, and the nature of the associated volcanic phenomena. The database has been compiled from a wide range of sources, and discrepancies between these are indicated where they arise. The quality of the data varies according to the source and the impacts reported. Data for homelessness are particularly poor and effects from ashfall and injuries appear to be under-reported. Of the 491 events included in the database, ~53% resulted in deaths, although the total death toll of 91,724 is dominated by the disasters at Mt Pele´e and Nevado del Ruiz. Pyroclastic density currents account for the largest proportion of deaths, and lahars for the most injuries incurred. The Philippines, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia, as a region, were the worst affected, and middle-income countries experienced greater human impacts than low or high-income countries. Compilation of the database has highlighted a number of problems with the completeness and accuracy of the existing CRED EM-DAT disaster database that includes volcanic events. This database is used by a range of organisations involved with risk management. The new database is intended as a resource for future analysis and will be made available via the Internet. It is hoped that it will be maintained and expanded. D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Volcano; human impacts; disaster; casualties; fatalities; evacuation

1. Introduction The record of human impacts of volcanism offers important lessons for volcanic risk management. Impacts range in magnitude from mass casualty events arising from lahars or pyroclastic currents in-

* Fax: +44 1223 333392. E-mail address: [email protected]. 0377-0273/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.04.017

undating urban areas to light ashfalls that inconvenience only a small number of people. The further back in history we look, the scarcer the written records of such impacts become and the harder it is to evaluate the global picture. Records for recent events are more numerous and often contain information on the human consequences. In recent decades, international news reports and aid-agency press releases have added to the amount of information available. The 20th Century provides a reasonable

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balance between length of time of the record and availability of data, and for this reason was selected as the focus of analysis here. An obvious classification of the human impacts of historical volcanic eruptions is by numbers of fatalities. But other impacts are important, including injuries sustained and medical intervention (although these factors are less frequently reported). With the development of volcano monitoring and risk management practice, the evacuation and relocation of populations is increasingly common (Tobin and Whiteford, 2002). Evacuees clearly also represent an important impact, since evacuation itself is often a traumatic process, and the housing of evacuees in often crowded shelters can lead to public health concerns. Famine and epidemic disease in displaced communities have led to high mortality in some historical volcanic disasters; for example, an estimated 49,000 people died following the Tambora eruption of 1815 (Tanguy et al., 1998). The threat of disease is still present when large numbers of people are displaced, even with the resources of today’s international aid community. In the case of the spontaneous evacuation of several hundred thousand residents of Goma during the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, a key action was the purification of water supplies to mitigate against cholera outbreaks (Baxter and Ancia, 2002). The effects on society can persist long after the onset of volcanic unrest or cessation of activity. For instance, people may be displaced in evacuation centres for many months after the activity starts, their homes and livelihoods may have been destroyed, and subsequent heavy rains may remobilise deposited material forming hazardous lahars (volcanic mudflows). Such impacts need to be considered when assessing the human consequences of eruptions. Databases cataloguing some of the human impacts of volcanic activity already exist (CRED, 2004; Simkin and Siebert, 1994; Tanguy et al., 1998), but they vary in the impacts that they record, the scale of the impacts included, and the time period that they cover. Tanguy et al. (1998) tallied best estimates of fatalities and their causes for what they considered the major eruptions since 1783. They estimated that 221,907 people died in this period, with about 86,224 of these fatalities the result of only 27 eruptions in the 20th Century. Simkin and Siebert (1994) (based partly on the work of Russell Blong) list fatalities for his-

torical eruptions through to 1994, and evacuations from 1976 to 1994, based on volcanological reports and papers. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Disaster Events Database (EMDAT) (CRED, 2004; Sapir and Misson, 1992) was developed in the early 1990s and contains records of disasters requiring international assistance since 1900. This database is available on the Internet and its bmain objective . . . is to serve the purposes of humanitarian action at national and international levels. It is an initiative aimed to rationalise decision making for disaster preparedness, as well as providing an objective base for vulnerability assessment and priority settingQ (CRED, 2004). It is used by agencies such as the Asian Disaster Reduction Centre in risk management. EM-DAT uses international aid organisation reports, national government statements, insurance company reports and media reports, as sources on disaster events, and includes information on fatalities, injuries, homelessness, persons affected and financial losses. A cursory inspection of the volcanic events section of the database reveals a range of errors. These include eruptions listed more than once, eruptions with the incorrect name and/or date (some the wrong year), and the omission of a number of significant volcanic disasters. One of the consequent aims of this work is to match up the EM-DAT events with the best available information from other sources. The CRED database, by definition, lists only disaster events and Tanguy et al. (1998) only included eruptions with high fatalities. This means that small events are missing from these records. To determine the cut-off point of inclusion in these databases, it is necessary to consider what the impact thresholds are for a natural hazard event to be classed as a bdisasterQ. A variety of definitions of disaster exist: some are qualitative descriptions of impacts, whilst others are quantitative thresholds that must be exceeded. Differences in these definitions can produce very different outcomes for disaster statistics (e.g., Wijkman and Timberlake, 1984) and lead to confusion. The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) defines a disaster as: ba serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resourcesQ (UN/ISDR, 2004). A similar defini-

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tion of disaster was originally used in EM-DAT: bAn interruption in time and space of normal processes beyond the coping capacity of the community, causing death, injury or homelessness, direct material losses and/or negative economic impact. The interruption can be either sudden or gradual onsetQ (Sapir and Misson, 1992). These definitions specify the main categories of human impact, but they do not provide much of a basis for quantifying their scale. The first inventory of natural disasters and impacts (Sheehan and Hewitt, 1969) and its follow-up (Dworkin, 1974), defined a major disaster in quantitative terms, as one that satisfied at least one of the following conditions: ! At least 100 persons dead. ! At least 100 persons injured. ! At least US$1,000,000 damage (this was subsequently inflation-adjusted to $3,600,000 by Shah, 1983). Other quantitative definitions of disaster thresholds include more than 50 people seriously injured or 2000 homes destroyed or damage exceeding US$58,600,000 at 1992 prices (McGuire, 1999), and at least 20 people dead or missing, or 50 people injured, or 2000 homeless, or total insured losses of US$74.9 million at 2004 prices (Swiss Re, 2005). The current quantitative criteria used by CRED for entering an event into EM-DAT is: bA disaster has to have killed 10 or more persons or affected 100 or more persons. An international appeal for assistance, however, takes first precedence for entry, even if the first two criteria are not fulfilledQ (Sapir and Misson, 1992). This improves the original CRED definition by providing baseline numbers of people, but the differences between the thresholds in the various definitions demonstrate the uncertainty and confusion that can arise when dealing with natural disasters. Shah (1983) suggested that the criteria for judging the impact of any natural disaster should also include the extent of the geographical area affected. In a volcanic disaster context, geographical area affected is difficult to assess, as there may be vast areas receiving small, but inconsequential, amounts of ashfall. That said, the health risks of ash remain poorly understood, and the widespread fallout of ash from major eruptions may have long-term health impacts in certain cases

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(Horwell et al., 2003a,b; Searl et al., 2002). Impact will then depend significantly on population distribution. For these reasons, area affected is a problematic category to include in a volcanic disaster database. The number of people evacuated must, however, be considered for a volcanic disaster. Here we present a new database of 20th Century volcanic events that have impacted people. The rationale behind constructing this new database is that there is no comprehensive catalogue of all the human impacts over time. The availability of accurate and comprehensive statistics is vital to understanding the impacts of volcanism on society. This understanding, in turn, contributes to the efficiency and effectiveness with which humanitarian agencies serve vulnerable people (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2002). We have aimed here to include all volcanic events that have affected humans in the 20th Century. To avoid the somewhat arbitrary definitions of bdisasterQ and expand on previous work, we consider all volcano-related incidents in the database, where an bincidentQ is an event that causes a human impact, but is not necessarily on a scale to classify as a disaster. To avoid confusion, we use the terms bincidentQ or beventQ to refer to all entries in the database. We not only consider eruptions, but any event associated with prior or ongoing volcanic activity. This includes incidents at non-erupting volcanoes such as deaths from gas emission or secondary lahars. The years that should be taken as the start and the end of any century are subject to debate, but for this purpose the 20th Century is taken to be the years 1900 to 1999. The database is constructed in such a way that it is easy to expand into the 21st Century or back into history. The bliveQ database will be published online at the website of the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network (www.ivhhn.org) in due course.

2. Methods Data on the human consequences of volcanic incidents were compiled from a wide range of primary and secondary sources and these are referenced for each database entry. These sources include the CREDEMDAT database, Volcanoes of the World (Simkin

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and Siebert, 1994), the Smithsonian Institution activity reports, the Catalogue of Active Volcanoes and the Bulletin of Volcanic Eruptions, in addition to many peer-reviewed articles and press reports. It was not feasible to check from primary sources every listed event contained in the secondary sources, but wherever possible more than one source is used for each event. Readers interested in more qualitative data are referred to the relevant publication(s) listed as the source. Abbreviations used in the database to denote sources are: ! CAVW—Catalogue of Active Volcanoes of the World. ! CSLP—Center for Short-Lived Phenomena, Event Notification Report, Smithsonian Institution. ! BGVN—Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, Smithsonian Institution. ! BVE—Bulletin of Volcanic Eruptions, published in Bulletin Volcanologique. ! SEAN—Scientific Event Alert Network Bulletin, Smithsonian Institution. ! VoW—Simkin and Siebert, 1994, Volcanoes of the World. Information for each volcano in the database includes name, Smithsonian Institution volcano number, country and geographic coordinates. Where necessary, volcano names given in the original sources were changed to those used in the Smithsonian Institution gazetteer (www.volcano.si.edu). This provides consistency in the database and allows cross-referencing. Latitude and longitude of each volcano are also taken from the gazetteer allowing the geographical distribution of disasters to be interrogated. The dates used for the events in the database are generally the dates that the activity or listed phenomena had a severe impact on people (causing evacuations, deaths etc). Where such dates are unknown or unclear, the start date of the activity is given instead. Problems with dates ascribed to volcanic activity have been considered by Hittelman et al. (2001). For each event, the number of people bkilledQ, binjuredQ, baffectedQ and bmade homelessQ are listed. The total number of people impacted by the event is also given. Some sources occasionally report financial losses caused by volcanic activity, but there is little consistency in the availability of such data so this

attribute has been omitted. The number of persons bkilledQ includes all confirmed dead, all missing and all presumed dead (where this information is available). Persons binjuredQ includes all those with physical injuries requiring medical attention or hospitalisation. Persons baffectedQ primarily refers to evacuees. The four categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For instance, the people that are made homeless will normally make up part of the population that has been evacuated. The inclusion of such people in more than one category in the database would result in overinflated values for the total number of people affected. Where there is sufficient information to suggest that this is the case, the btotal affectedQ category has been adjusted. Consequently, the total is not always the sum of all four categories. The terms binjuredQ and baffectedQ cause problems in that they are not properly defined in disaster reporting and collection of data may be strongly controlled by the location and type of the event. Event location and development status of the country will influence the presence and accessibility of medical facilities for injured persons and in remote locations and less-developed countries injuries may go unaided and, hence, unreported. This will be a problem particularly for the early events in the database. bAffectedQ is an awkward category, because it is inexact. People can be affected by volcanic activity in many ways, from ashfall hindering daily activities to long-term evacuation, the exact effect being determined by the type and location of the volcanic activity. There are no standards for reporting these different impacts and so, at present, they are all contained within the one category, if they are reported at all. One of the aims of the database is to provide a quantitative indication of the impacts of volcanic phenomena on people in the 20th Century. Often, accurate figures for people affected are unavailable, particularly where large areas have been impacted. Consequently, any numerical analysis will be, at best, a rough estimate. The large events and their associated errors will also drown out the signal from the smaller events. A range of values can often be found in the literature for given impacts. In these instances, the CRED approach is to take the average value. The volcanological records and literature are generally more precise (although not necessarily more accurate) when quoting numbers of people, so we

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have tried to avoid the CRED approach by collecting data from other sources. Where a number of values do occur in trusted sources, the range is given in the relevant impact field of the database and the reported values provided in the accompanying notes. Ranges of values hinder quantitative analysis, so the value from the most trusted source (or an average if there is uncertainty) is identified in a separate bquantitativeQ field for each impact. The 1994 unrest of Taal volcano in the Philippines highlights the difficulty of establishing firm estimates of the movement and behaviour of people during a volcanic crisis. News reports on the situation (summarised in BGVN 19:02) are unclear on both the number of people evacuated from the island and the circumstances of their departure, with one report telling of hundreds who fled and another of thousands who were ordered to evacuate. Similar conflicting accounts exist for many other incidents in the database. This makes estimating evacuation numbers problematic and increases the error associated with this category. Many records give only a qualitative indication of the impacts of events, such as bmany were injuredQ or bone village was evacuatedQ. To enable a quantitative examination of the database, these descriptors had to be transferred into numbers. The enumeration policy in Table 1 was adopted based on the approaches of Simkin et al. (2001) and CRED. The values of Simkin et al. (2001) have been used in preference to those from CRED to enable comparison between this work

Table 1 Enumerators/multipliers used where qualitative descriptions of impacts are given instead of numbers Qualitative description

CRED-EMDAT

Simkin et al. (2001)

This work

Few/some Several Unknown Family/house developed country Family/house developing country Many Hundreds Thousands Village Town

– – – 3

3 5 15 –

3 5 15 3

5

–

5

200 2000 – –

100 300 3000 – –

100 300 3000 1000 10 000

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and theirs. A default value of 1000 has been applied here whenever there is reference to a village, an area or an island being evacuated or affected, but no further information. It is acknowledged that this value may be too large for some instances (for example remote villages) and that future refinement of the enumeration policy based on geographical knowledge could reduce the range of error associated with such events. A default value of 10 000 (and multiples thereof) was applied in three instances where there were references to a town(s) being affected. Where there is no value, range or qualitative statement given, but impacts are known to have occurred, a question mark is shown in the database. In such instances, a default numeric value of 15 is attributed to the event, following the specification of Simkin et al. (2001). Their derivation of the values for bunknownQ and bmanyQ is explained in more detail in Simkin et al. (2001). The conversion of cases of homelessness defined in terms of families is done by multiplying by the average family size in the region as defined by CRED: 5 for developing countries and 3 for developed countries (reduced from actual estimates of 5.6 and 3.5, respectively (Sapir and Misson, 1992)). The developed country value probably underestimates actual numbers for the early part of the century, as families and households were larger then than today. Similar issues of under-estimation surround records where the best estimate is known to be the minimum possible value. To enable geographical analysis of events, each record includes the volcano’s location, country and region. The fifteen regions used were modified and extended from those used in the EM-DAT to make them more applicable to the distribution of the volcanoes. Hawaii is here included under North America. For each region, a representative location on the world map was used for plotting the data graphically. Each country was assigned a development level using the World Bank’s 2000/2001 development report (World Bank, 2000). This divides the economic status of countries into one of three categories: low income (L), middle income (M), and high income (H). Islands belonging to other countries—e.g., Martinique, which is an overseas department of France— have been given the development code of their parent country, which may be unrepresentative. These codes are only valid for the recent past, but provide a

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reasonable proxy for the general pattern of development over the 20th Century. However, it is important to recognise the relationships between development and disasters (e.g., UN/ISDR, 2004). The economic development of Honduras, for example, was put back by approximately 20 years by the damage wrought by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2002). Some volcanoes are located in generally uninhabited areas and appear in the database because people have been injured or killed whilst on fieldwork or tourist trips. Although these volcanoes have been assigned a development status, its relevance is debatable. The cause of a volcanic incident is an important consideration for future hazard assessment and the phenomena causing death/injury/affect is given for each event where known. The cause has been subdivided into 14 categories (Table 2). Each phenomenon has been given a code letter, which is used in the Table 2 Codes for impact causes

2.1. Problems in assigning event data

Code

Phenomena causing impact

Comments

T

Tephra

Includes ballistics and explosions (including steam blasts). Deaths may be due to suffocation and tephra loading causing roofs to collapse. Includes directed blasts

P

L S

Pyroclastic density currents Primary lahars Secondary lahars/flooding Debris flows/avalanches Lava flows Seismicity

W J G H

Tsunami (waves) Jo¨kulhlaups Gas/acid rain Volcanic unrest

F E

Famine Epidemic

I

Other indirect

M N D

database bDis codeQ field. These codes have been derived following the classification schemes of Simkin and Siebert (1994) and Tanguy et al. (1998). Different letters are used for each phenomenon to avoid confusion and facilitate sorting and query of the database in an electronic environment. Where more than one type of volcanic activity has occurred, the numbers of people affected by each phenomenon are given for the data entries, if known. In many instances, however, it is unclear what the cause(s) of death/injury/evacuation was. These events are not assigned a disaster code due to lack of information. The numbers of people mildly affected by ashfall are often vast and unrecorded and these are not included. Neither are the numbers of people injured in roadtraffic accidents following ashfall, as such statistics are difficult to obtain. Major aviation incidents involving multiple engine loss to individual aircraft are included, but other aviation events such as rerouting or airport closure are omitted for similar reasons.

Mudflows associated with eruptions Non-eruptive. May be triggered by heavy rainfall.

Associated with volcanic activity, leading to building collapse. Volcanogenic No eruption necessary Volcanic unrest or hazard leading to evacuation, where a range of precursors had been noticed. Indirect Indirect, often a factor in displaced populations Indirect, other than famine or epidemic

Derived following Tanguy et al. (1998) and Simkin and Siebert (1994).

A number of complications were encountered when compiling the database. The main problems were: ! Lack of corroboration between the dates and impacts given in different sources, leading to many double entries during the building of the database; ! Incorrect naming of the volcano causing an event; ! Double reporting of the same event, but with different dates in the same source; ! Finding literature sources to verify events listed in the CRED database or mentioned in online reports or news articles; ! Determining the phenomena causing the effect, particularly for the older eruptions. In a number of instances this was not possible; ! Determining numbers of people from vague qualitative statements; ! Determining whether references to bcasualtiesQ indicated numbers of dead and/or injured. Data from additional sources was sought in all cases where problems arose, but in some instances uncertainty could not be resolved. Careful cross-

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referencing of events and their dates and impacts allowed most of the problems above to be solved and we believe that all the double and incorrect events have been removed. Data from all the sources consulted for each event, including those that are recognised as erroneous, are noted in the database to highlight the discrepancies that exist in the available literature and clarify previous inaccuracies.

and reduces the date to one column. All dates are given in yyyy/mm/dd format. Where the days or months are unknown or uncertain, they are either left blank or denoted by b~Q, respectively. The list of sources for the database is given in Appendix A. The full version of the database, which includes comments on the different data sources, will be posted online at the website of the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network (www.ivhhn.org).

3. Results

3.1. By number killed/injured/homeless/affected

A total of 491 events are listed in the database spanning the whole of the 20th Century (1900 to 1999). These range in type from the evacuation of a couple of people, to the deaths of tens of thousands and show that the values for the total number of people impacted by eruptions are predominantly controlled by the numbers of people evacuated/affected. The information contained in the database about each event allows the spatial and temporal distribution of incidents over time to be considered and results of analysis of the data by impacts, location, cause and year are presented below. The quality of the data contained in the database is variable, ranging from published anecdotal reports to summaries of medical records. Even for well-studied eruptions the information on numbers of people impacted is often imprecise and in many cases data on injuries and wider effects is suspected to be lacking. This partly reflects the problems associated with collecting such data, particularly in developing countries where medical and communication facilities may be limited. To indicate the problems with data quality, all reported values found for the different impacts are given in the database. These show that the increase through the century in communication of human impacts has sometimes compounded the problem of obtaining accurate statistics by providing an increased number of differing values. Lack of meta-data on where values have been obtained from and when (fatality estimates/counts often change with time since the event (e.g., Alexander, 1993)) reduces the confidence that can be placed in some of the data. A simplified version of the database is given in Table 3. For compactness, this version excludes the Smithsonian Institution number, latitude and longitude of the volcanoes, and accompanying comments,

The total numbers of people killed; injured; made homeless, and evacuated or affected by volcanic phenomena in the 20th Century are given in Table 4. Due to the qualitative references present in many event descriptions, these values should be treated as approximations only, particularly those for the homeless, evacuated and total affected categories. Ranges for deaths and injuries are much better constrained than those for the other categories. To account for the uncertainty, maximum and minimum estimates were calculated (Table 5) using the ranges in the database. For the minimum estimation, all values corresponding to qualitative references were removed. For the maximum estimate, the same enumerators were applied as in the best estimate scenario. This means that the best estimate values appear closer to the maximum than the minimum and that the maximum value is only a rough estimate. The values used in the rest of the data analysis are those from the best estimate. The results discussed below assume that the database is reasonably comprehensive in its inclusion of events. This is impossible to test or prove and it should be remembered that all percentages and ratios here are relative to the calculated best estimate totals and do not account for any error ranges. Under reporting of certain outcomes, such as injuries, and issues of data completeness and quality mean that all values should be viewed with a high degree of caution. Table 4 shows that more events resulted in fatalities than any other outcome (~53% of events), but that more people were evacuated or affected than any other consequence (~94% of people). This indicates the importance of including numbers on people affected in incident reports, even if they are at best rough approximations. Injuries account for the smallest group of people (~0.3%), suggesting that, consid-

198

Table 3 Database of 20th Century volcanic incidents

Country

Dev Region

Kirishima Asama Adatara Kelut Pelée

Japan Japan Japan Indonesia Martinique

H H H L H

East Asia East Asia East Asia South–east Asia Caribbean

Soufriere St. Vincent Tori–shima Santa Maria

St .Vincent

M

Caribbean

Japan Guatemala

H M

East Asia Central America

Okataina (Tarawera) Karthala Merapi Karthala Vesuvius Savaii

New Zealand H

Oceania

T 1902/8/8 T?(2000– 1902/10/24 3000)/E(50 00–10,000) T 1903/8/30

Comoros Indonesia Comoros Italy Western Samoa Italy

L L L H M

East Africa South–east Asia East Africa European Union Oceania

G P L T L

H

European Union

218–700

Alayta Lewotobi Semeru Taupo Usu Taal Asama Asama Novarupta (Katmai) Nyamuragira Asama Ambrym Sakura–jima

Ethiopia Indonesia Indonesia New Zealand Japan Philippines Japan Japan Alaska

L L L H H M H H H

Central Africa South–east Asia South–east Asia Oceania East Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia Aleutians

T(213)/L(3) 1906/4/6 /G(2) 1907/6/ 1907/10/16 M 1909/8/29 M 1910/3/20 M 1910/7/25 P/W 1911/1/30 T 1911/5/8 T 1911/8/15 T 1912/6/6

Zaire Japan Vanuatu Japan

L H M H

Central Africa East Asia Oceania East Asia

1912/12/ 1913/5/29 1913/12/5 1914/1/12

20 1 21 23–140

20 1 21 87–127 58

Lassen White Island

USA H New Zealand H

North America Oceania

L T T D(12–26?) /T(2)/I(23) /S(rest) T D

1914/6/14 1914/9/10

10 to 11

11

Vesuvius

Dis code

P T/P M P(28,577)/ M(423) P

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Killed

Killed Injured quant

1900/2/16 1900/7/15 1900/7/17 1901/5/22 1902/5/5

2 > 25? 72 many? 29,000

2 3 25 72 10 100 29,000 123

1902/5/7

1565– 1680 125 > 4500 –13000

1903// 1904/1/30 1904/2/25 1905/3/10 1905/8/4

3 to 4 17 16 1 1

1565 120–144

Injured Homeless quant

Affected (incl evac) quant

3 10 123

1350

1350

144

TotAff quant

5 25 82 100 30,473 1709

125 8750

125 8750

4

4

17 16 20–45 1 1 1

45 3 villages

218 300 15 1 several 221 1 1 1335 199 1 2 2

1

17 3061 1 2 5000

3000

1 several/5 villages

? 1 221 1 1 1335 1 2+ 2

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

300

5000 100,000

100,000

100,518

15,000

15 6 221 1 15,001 1534 1 2 2

5

15,000 199

121

1

islanders 50,000

1000 50,000

20 1 1021 50,179

1 11

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Volcano

Vanuatu

M

Oceania

M

1914//

12

Okataina (Tarawera) Agrigan San Salvador (El Boqueron) Urupu–zima (?) Kelut

New Zealand H

Oceania

T

1917/4/1

2

Mariana Is. El Salvador

H M

Oceania Central America

T S/L

1917/4/9 1917/6/6

352?

352

Japan Indonesia

H L

East Asia South–east Asia

W M

1918/9/8 1919/5/19

24 5110

Stromboli Nasu Merapi Nasu Tangkubanparahu Kirishima Kilauea Papandayan Santorini Tokachi

Italy Japan Indonesia Japan Indonesia

H H L H L

European Union East Asia South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia

T G P G G

1919/5/22 1919/7/6 1920/10/12 1921/11/26 1923/6/

24 5000 –5160 4 2 33–35 1? 3

Japan USA Indonesia Greece Japan

H H L H H

East Asia North America South–east Asia European Union East Asia

Tokachi Izalco Dieng Mayon Paluweh Etna Vesuvius Komaga–take Etna Santa Maria Ambrym Asama Stromboli Merapi Asama Fuego Kusatsu– Shirane Harimkotan Hakone Kuchinoerabu– jima

Japan El Salvador Indonesia Philippines Indonesia Italy Italy Japan Italy Guatemala Vanuatu Japan Italy Indonesia Japan Guatemala Japan

H M L M L H H H H M M H H L H M H

East Asia Central America South–east Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia European Union European Union East Asia European Union Central America Oceania East Asia European Union South–east Asia East Asia Central America East Asia

Kurile Is. Japan Japan

M H H

East Asia East Asia East Asia

2 1

4 20 2 35 1 3

3

9000 houses /104 villages 20 10 houses 1 village

1

144

144 > 207

30

54 2 1035 1 3

1000

2 ? 40 >1 226

2 15 40 1 226 200

T P P T T M

1926/9/8 1926/11/5 1928/5/13 1928/6/25 1928/8/4 1928/11/7 1929/6/3 1929/6/17 1929/8/2 1929/11/2 1929// 1930/8/20 1930/9/11 1930/12/18 1931/8/20 1932/1/21 1932/10/1

W G T, ?P(26)

1933/1/8 1933/5/10 1933/12/24

2 1 8

many 207 5000/5080 houses

2 4 2 5000

6 4–>6 1369 3 some 2

6 4 20 1369 3 3 2 7

7

26

2 1 34

200 4650 180

4

islanders

2 1 8 26

100

15,000

1 1 1 100 15,351 2 15 40 1 426 4650 180 6 2 5000 1000 6 24 14,369 3 3 9

4300–5000 60 houses 2 2 200–5000

1 352 24 50,110

45,000

1 1 1

1 1 1

P/M

1 1+

1923/7/ 1924/5/18 1924/12/18 1925/8/11 1926/5/24

T G T M(137) /T(3) M P T(1) P W(128)/T L L T

12

12

1000

20 13 villages

13,000 higher villages

13,000

199

(continued on next page)

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Aoba

200

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Merapi Mt. Hood Asama Asama Rabaul

Indonesia USA Japan Japan Papua New Guinea

L H H H M

South–east Asia North America East Asia East Asia Oceania

1934/11/17 1934 1936/7/29 1936/10/17 1937/5/29

Asama Lopevi Tori–shima Dieng Miyake–Jima Karangetang Karangetang Asama Michoacan (Paricutin) Merapi

Japan Vanuatu Japan Indonesia Japan Indonesia Indonesia Japan Mexico

H M H L H L L H M

East Asia Oceania East Asia South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia Central America

P G T T P/T(375 Blong)/ I(few) T L L T L

Indonesia

L

South–east Asia

P

1943/4/1

Cerro Azul Vesuvius

Galapagos Italy

M H

South America European Union

1943/4/13 1944/3/

1 26–27

Cleveland Usu Usu Dieng Usu Sakura–jima Semeru Ruang Niuafo'ou Asama Hekla Iliwerung Villarica Purace Hibok–Hibok Villarica Mauna Loa Hibok–Hibok Asama Ambrym

Aleutian Is. Japan Japan Indonesia Japan Japan Indonesia Indonesia Tonga Japan Iceland Indonesia Chile Colombia Philippines Chile USA Philippines Japan Vanuatu

H H H L H H L L M H H L H M M H H M H M

Aleutians East Asia East Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia Oceania East Asia Rest of Europe South–east Asia South America South America South–east Asia South America North America South–east Asia East Asia Oceania

T T(24) /L(2)/ I(1) T T G T T L(homes) T H L T L P M T P? M L P T T

1944/6/10 1944/6/23 1944/8/26 1944/12/4 1944/12/28 1946/1/ 1946/2/ 1946/9/ 1946// 1947/8/14 1947/11/2 1948/5/7 1948/10/18 1949/5/26 1949/6/ 1949/12/ 1950/6/1 1950/9/15 1950/9/23 1950//

1

1938/7/16 1939/2/2 1939/8/18 1939/10/13 1940/7/12 1940/8/23 1940/10/ T 1941/7/9 O(3)/I(100) 1943/2/20

Killed

Killed Injured quant

Injured Homeless quant

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

valley population 1 1 1 441–507

a few 2 10 11 1 1 ~103

1 114–117 1 1

1 1 1 506

Affected (incl evac) quant

100

? 20 2 1 1

103

5000

7500

7500

2 villages

2000

island evacuated

2000

63 houses 20 85 houses 2 1 1 2528

315 255

3288

3288

3 2000 2 325 286 3 1 2 5919

sector pop

1000

1000

2528

1 27

1 27

1 1 114 38 or 250 1 1

11 1 ? 40–100 16–17 2 36

11 1 15 40 200 16 2 36

66–84 1

66 1 1

100 1 1 1 8006

several villages

3 2 10 11 1 1

TotAff quant

250 173 houses

865

2 villages 100 houses

2000 500

1 village

1000

900 1172–2500

900 1172

200

several houses

15

1 701+

701

1 1000 1 1229 1 2001 500 900 1172 11 1 15 240 16 2 36 15 66 2 701

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

Lamington

M

Oceania

P

1951/1/21

L H M M

South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia Oceania

T G P T

1951/8/31 1951/11/5 1951/12/4 1951//

Hakone Bayonnaise rocks Binuluan Tinakula Sangeang Api Aso Sirung Hakone Oshima Ruapehu Merapi

Japan Japan

H H

East Asia East Asia

G T

1952/3/27 1952/9/24

1 29 or 31

1 29

Philippines Solomon Is Indonesia Japan Indonesia Japan Japan New Zealand Indonesia

M L L H L H H H L

South–east Asia Oceania South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia Oceania South–east Asia

M

12

12

N P

1952// 1952// 1953/3/25 1953/4/27 1953/6/ 1953/7/26 1953/10/13 1953/12/24 1954/1/18

Kilauea

USA

H

North America

L

1954/2/28

H M

East Asia Oceania

G I

1954/7/21 1954//

1 25

1 25

M H

South–east Asia South America

N G

1954// 1955/7/27

2 2

2 2

H L

East Asia South–east Asia

1955/10/13 1956/1/3

1

1

P/T

Antarctica

T

1956/1/19

H H M

East Asia North Atlantic Oceania

T P

1957/10/13 1957/10/ 1957/12/

H

North Atlantic

S

1958/5/12

H L H

East Asia South–east Asia East Asia

T M G

1958/6/24 1958/7/12 1958/7/21

Tateyama Bam

Japan Papua New Guinea Hibok–Hibok Philippines Carran–Los Chile Venados Sakura–jima Japan Merapi Indonesia Bristol Island

Capelinhos

South Sandwich Islands Japan Azores Papua New Guinea Azores

Aso Mahawu Daisetsu

Japan Indonesia Japan

Oshima Capelinhos Manam

T T D

2942 –3000 7 2 500

5 to 11 5 10 1 151 37–68

2942

67

3009

67

7 2 500

6 5 10 1 151 64

areas evac islanders from the South

1 29

several > 100 1

57

many

5 100 1

57 3 villages and 90 homes ~20 homes and plantation village

1

12 1 2

1000 1000

1 village

1000

1000

island population

1000

1 1000 2 2

53

20–28 10

75

surroundings of Apu island

1000

1 1000

15

15

4811 3000–3200

4811 3000

54 4811 3000

western part of island

1000

1000

53 1 village

10 to12 1 2

100

12 1000 1005 106 6 10 1 151 3121

island evacuated Sangeang

3000

100

houses

1

1000 1000

7 2 1500 1000

28 5 houses 10

1000

15

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Papua New Guinea Kelut Indonesia Hakone Japan Hibok–Hibok Philippines Ambrym Vanuatu

55 11 2

201

(continued on next page)

202

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Asama Okinawa Tori–Shima Manam

Japan Japan

H H

East Asia East Asia

I T

1958// 1959/6/

Papua New Guinea Vanuatu Indonesia

M

Oceania

M L

Oceania South–east Asia

H P

1960// 1961/4/13

Tateyama Daisetsu Asama Tristan da Cunha Tokachi Merapi Gamalama Irazu Agung

Japan Japan Japan Atlantic

H H H H

East Asia East Asia East Asia South Atlantic

G G T S

1961/4/23 1961/6/18 1961/8/18 1961/10/10

Japan Indonesia Indonesia Costa Rica Indonesia

H L L H L

East Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia Central America South–east Asia

T N

Villarica Fuego Batur Irazu Merapi Paluweh Villarica Dieng Taal

Chile Guatemala Indonesia Costa Rica Indonesia Indonesia Chile Indonesia Philippines

H M L H L L H L M

South America Central America South–east Asia Central America South–east Asia South–east Asia South America South–east Asia South–east Asia

Kelut

Indonesia

L

South–east Asia

Taal Awu

Philippines Indonesia

M L

South–east Asia South–east Asia

Kuchinoerabu– jima Rincon de la Vieja Tateyama Semeru

Japan

H

Costa Rica Japan Indonesia

Lopevi Merapi

Killed

Killed Injured quant 7

Injured Homeless quant

1966/4/24

East Asia

P(1)/M (211) T P/M(10)/I (1)/T (injuries) T

H

Central America

T

1967/2/23

H L

East Asia South–east Asia

G M

1967/11/4 1968/3/8

1966/7/ 1966/8/12

7 86

3000

3000

1000 10,000

1000 10012

264–270

270

1 2 1 270

5 villages

5000

thousands

66

1 2 1

1 2 1

5 2 5 5 to 15 1138–> 1584

5 2 5 15 1138

? 7 2? 30 to 40

15 7 2 30

1 4 to 25 114 190– > 355 208 – 215 39–88

11 5 5 200 296

212 60–86

39 1000– 1000s 3

2 3

2 3

8000

11 5 5 200 296

island evacuated communities in forbidden zone

4500–5000 332,234

400 houses

13 25 114 190 785

1966/11/22

6 8–10 villages

4500 332,234

58,000

5000

13,000 familes; 58,000 5000

5000

10,298

2000

~14,000 40,000

14,000 40,000

14,000 42,039

2000

785

2000 2 villages

16 5000 10 4715 333,668

15 7 3002 2030 15 4 2025 114 58,975

3 villages > 1000 orphanage

3000 2000 15

2000

2000

3

86 5000

TotAff quant

86

86

6

Affected (incl evac) quant

7

1960/3/17

1962/6/29 1962/10/ 1962/12/31 T 1963/3/17 P(820/59); 1963/3/17 T(155/201); M(163/36) M 1963/5/21 M 1963/9/30 1963/9/ M 1963/12/10 N 1963/12/ 1964/1/1 M 1964/3/3 1964/12/13 P/W/I 1965/9/28

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

3

3 population

1000

1000

1000

1000

2 1003

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

3–>6

6

6000

6000 45,000

45,000

51006

1968/7/29 1968/10/27 1969/1/7

78–87

78

3280

12,391 175

1–3

3

3280 12,391 35 families 3800

15,749 175 3803

South–east Asia

T(1)/N(1)

1969/1/27

2

2 10

8000

8012

Antarctica

S

1969/2/21

15

15

M H M H H M H L H

South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia European Union East Asia Oceania Rest of Europe Central America South America

T G

1969/3/26 1969/8/26 1969/10/11 1970/3/2 1970/4/30 1970/5/ 1970/9/20 1971/2/3 1971/8/12

2 to 3 1

3 1

3 1

3 1

3 to 5

5

Guatemala Solomon Is. St. Vincent

M L M

Central America Oceania Caribbean

T L

1971/9/14 1971/9/27 1971/10/17

2 to 10

10

Canary Is. Japan

H H

North Atlantic East Asia

L G

1971/10/28 1971/12/27

? 6

15 6

15 6

Chile Reunion

H H

South America East Africa

M I

1971/12/29 1972/8/

15–30 3

15 3

15 3

Japan Japan Iceland

H H H

East Asia East Asia Rest of Europe

G G G/L

1972/10/2 1972/11/25 1973/1/23

2 1 1

2 1 1

5300

2 1 5301

Chile Japan Indonesia

H H L

South America East Asia South–east Asia

M T T

1973/4/5 1973/6/1 1973/9/

2

2 1000

2 1 1000

Indonesia Indonesia Japan Japan

L L H H

South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia

W D N T

1973/12?/ 1974/4/27 1974/6/17 1974/7/28

2 4 3 3

Philippines

M

South–east Asia

Arenal Cerro Negro Merapi

Costa Rica Nicaragua Indonesia

H L L

Iya

Indonesia

L

Deception Is.

Antarctica

Didicas Narugo Canlaon Campi Flegrei Tateyama Lopevi Jan Mayen Cerro Negro Hudson, Cerro

Philippines Japan Philippines Italy Japan Vanuatu Jan Mayen Nicaragua Chile

Fuego Tinakula Soufriere St. Vincent La Palma Kusatsu –Shirane Villarica Piton de la Fournaise Hakone Tateyama Vestmannaeyjar (Heimaey) Hudson, Cerro Sakura–jima Iliboleng Iliwerung Karangetang Sakura–jima Niigata–Yake yama

S G T/L M

3800; 742 –793 homes 10 287 houses

1435 surrounding residents scientists evacuated

island evacuated 39 3000 most settlers, 50 families

1000 39 3000 250

3 1 1700 36003 1 1000 39 3600 255

160–6000 2000

6000 2000

10 6000 2000

1700 36,000

600

300 houses

1

600

900

5200–5300

1 People around the volcano

2 4 3 3

1700 36,000

4 villages

4000

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

1968/4/21

Central America Central America South–east Asia

M(3–5?), P(1) P T M/P(dead)

Mayon

2 4004 3 3

203

(continued on next page)

204

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Killed

Sakura–jima Fuego Etna Aso Arenal Tateyama Kilauea Makian

Japan Guatemala Italy Japan Costa Rica Japan USA Indonesia

H M H H H H H L

East Asia Central America European Union East Asia Central America East Asia North America South–east Asia

N T T S P G W H

1974/8/9 1974/10/10 1974// 1975/1/23 1975/6/17 1975/8/12 1975/11/29 1976/6/13

5 few some

5 3 3

2 1 2

10 2 1–many 1 2 many

Kusatsu– Shirane Sangay Soufrière Guadeloupe Taal

Japan

H

East Asia

G

1976/8/3

3

3

Ecuador Guadeloupe

M H

South America Caribbean

T T

1976/8/12 1976/8/12

2

24 4

Philippines

M

South–east Asia

T

1976/8/31

Karangetang Sarychev Arenal Merapi Semeru

Indonesia Kurile Is. Costa Rica Indonesia Indonesia

L M H L L

South–east Asia East Asia Central America South-east Asia South-east Asia

L T/L

Kadovar

Papua New Guinea El Salvador Zaire Comoros Reunion

M

Oceania

S

1976/9/19 1976/9/23 1976/10/21 1976/11/25 1976/11/11 to 14 1976/11/

M L L H

Central America Central Africa East Africa East Africa

T L L L

1976/12/2 1977/1/10 1977/4/5 1977/4/8

Japan Japan USA Philippines

H H H M

East Asia East Asia North America South-east Asia

T N/T(evac) L T

1977/7/ 1977/8/7 1977/9/29 1977/10/3

Indonesia Aleutian Is. Indonesia Philippines Philippines Japan Guatemala

L H L M M H M

South-east Asia Aleutians South-east Asia South-east Asia South-east Asia East Asia Central America

N T N T/L T N

1977/12/16/26 1978/2/4 1978/3/5 1978/5/7 1978/7/29 1978/8/30 1978/9/2 1

San Miguel Nyiragongo Karthala Piton de la Fournaise Aso Usu Kilauea Taal Semeru Westdahl Semeru Mayon Bulusan Sakura-jima Santa Maria

N M

Killed Injured quant

Injured Homeless quant 1000s 10 16 houses 100

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac) 3000 48 several towns

11

4 4

73,500

100 1 24 homes

29 40

258 homes

several thousand/11,510 96 1800 Met staff 70,000

600 10 1

3

several 32

10 800 3 villages/5000 1

a few 800 8000-65,000 3000 4000-20,000 1000-2500

5 2

10,000-27,000 250 Taal Island residents 2 homes

10 lighthouse staff

15 houses

3

3

6 73,504

11,510

11,610

1800 15 70,000

1802 15 70,000 29 1330

1000

1000

3 50,000 4000 2500

3 51,410 4000 2501

27,000 250 10,000

5 27,005 250 10,000

10 5

75 23,000-25,000 1000

1

5 3003 3 58 40,102 1 102 8000

73,500

1290 1000?

50-600 0 or ?1

8000

TotAff quant

3

~ 100

29 40 or 119?

40,000

100 8000/3250 families

1

Affected (incl evac) quant

23,000 1000

10 5 75 23,000 1000 3 1

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

Indonesia Japan Kamchatka Reunion

L H M H

South–east Asia East Asia Aleutians East Africa

N N T L

1978/9/19 1978/10/24 1978// 1978//

Vanuatu

M

Oceania

G

1979/2/10

Dieng Karkar

Indonesia Papua New Guinea St. Vincent

L M

South–east Asia Oceania

G T

1979/2/20 1979/3/8

142–149 149 2 2

M

Caribbean

T/P

1979/4/13

0 or 2

Chile

H

South America

T

1979/4/14

Indonesia Indonesia Italy Japan Italy Chile Galapagos Philippines USA

L L H H H H M M H

South–east Asia South–east Asia European Union East Asia European Union South America South America South–east Asia North America

1979/4/30 1979/7/7 1979/8/4 1979/9/6 1979/9/12 1979/10/15 1979/11/13 1980/2/7 1980/5/18

USA Philippines USA USA

H M H H

North America South–east Asia North America North America

N W L T T T T/L S T(51)/M(6) /I(4+) T S S S

Indonesia Papua New Guinea Mt. St. Helens USA Paluweh Indonesia Etna Italy Semeru Indonesia Semeru Indonesia Pagan Mariana Is. Mayon Philippines Gamkonora Indonesia Paluweh Indonesia

L M

South–east Asia Oceania

T P

1980/9/4 1980/10/6

H L H L L H M L L

North America South–east Asia European Union South–east Asia South–east Asia Oceania South–east Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia

S P L P N T/L N T T(evac), P (damage)

1980/10/16 1981/1/18 1981/3/17 1981/3/29 1981/5/14 1981/5/15 1981/6/30 1981/7/19 1981/8/22

Soufriere St. Vincent Carran–Los Venados Marapi Iliwerung Etna Aso Etna Llaima Sierra Negra Bulusana Mt. St. Helens Mt. St. Helens Bulusan Mt. St. Helens Mt. St. Helens Gamalama Ulawun

12 3 1

12 3 1

2

12 5 1 1000

2 village

local inhabitants 1000

1000 1000

1000

1000

15,000–17,000

17,000

18149 2

17,000–22,000

17,000

17,000

125

125

125 80–82 500

80 500

3 9

3 9

250

58

58

11 23–24

10 to 12

12 2500

many houses

47–>200 47

152 1 9

1500 1000 120 120

1500 1000 120 120

52,235 2000

52,235 2000

92 1850 250 272 5000 53

92 1850 550 273 5524 53 56 3500 1850

250

11 23

1980/6/12 1980/7/6 1980/7/22 1980/8/7

1 1 192–378 372

1000 60 1000 365

80 500 250 14 32 1000 60 1000 2935

152 1 9 1 village

tourists/residents 30–90? area residents 2500 360 + ~5 in aircraft 1500 area residents > 120 workers on flanks 40,000–52,235 2000 92 1850 300 250 272 5000 53–54 2500– >3500 1000 inhabitants?1850

3500 1850

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Semeru Usu Kliuchevskoi Piton de la Fournaise Ambrym

(continued on next page)

205

206

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Nyamuragira Telica Mt. St. Helens El Chichón

Zaire Nicaragua USA Mexico

L L H M

Central Africa Central America North America Central America

1981/12/26 1982/2/12 1982/3/19 1982/3/29

100–2000

Galunggung

Indonesia

L

South–east Asia

L T M S(10 SEAN)/T(1 53 Blong)/ P(rest) T/P/L(dest oyed some homes)

1982/4/5

23–188

El Chichón Santa Maria Soputan Cameroon

Mexico Guatemala Indonesia Cameroon

M M L L

Central America Central America South–east Asia Central Africa

N N T L

1982/5/27 1982/8/25 1982/8/26 1982/10/16

1

Sakura–jima Manam

Japan Papua New Guinea USA Guatemala Indonesia

H M

East Asia Oceania

T

1982/?/ 1982//

1

H M L

North America Central America South–east Asia

L M P

1983/1/ 1983/7/6 1983/7/18

1

Indonesia Indonesia Japan

L L H

South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia

T W L

1983/8/9 1983/8/17 1983/10/3

Italy Kamchatka Chile USA Indonesia Indonesia Japan Cameroon Indonesia Philippines Japan Indonesia Italy USA

H M H H L L H L L M H L H H

European Union Aleutians South America North America South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia Central Africa South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia South–east Asia European Union North America

S T T L T P D G T/M T/M(1) D N S L

1983/10/4 1983// 1984/4/20 1984/4/20 1984/5/24 1984/6/13 1984/8/6 1984/8/16 1984/9/5 1984/9/10 1984/9/14 1984/9/ 1984/10/16 1985/1/

Kilauea Santa Maria Colo (Una Una) Gamalama Iliwerung Miyake–Jima Campi Flegrei Kliuchevskoi Llaima Kilauea Soputan Merapi Unzen Lake Monoun Karangetang Mayon Ontake Galunggung Etna Kilauea

Killed

Killed Injured quant

2000 200–500

37 6–dozens

13

Injured Homeless quant

500 15,000

100 22 villages

Affected (incl evac) quant

TotAff quant

area residents 50+ 70 families 15,000 60,000

1000 50 210 60,000

1000 50 210 62,500

22,000 62,000–300,000 evac and ~755 affected on aircraft

62,755

62,892

hundreds 850–30,000 ~300 + small town

300 850 1300

4 300 850 1300

?

1000

1 1000

hundreds–3500

3500

> 5000–6334

6334

3

1

1 13 houses 7000–7101

?some

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

39 7101

3 423 houses /1100 people

1100 1400–4500 < 40,000

1

40,000

1 3 houses

37

2 37 1

1 29

1 29

1

4400

1 15+

2 1

30 1400

tourists/residents

1000

350 1000–5000

350 1000

9

area residents 20,000 70,000–73,000

1000 20,000 73,000

half of village

500

300

300

1400

40 3500 7101 6334 3 4400 40,000 1 1000 9 350 1000 2 1038 20,000 73,001 29 500 1431 300

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

USA Japan Indonesia Philippines

H H L M

North America East Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia

L G L/T T

1985/6/12 1985/7/22 1985/7/30 1985/10/5

Nevado del Ruiz Nevado del Ruiz Concepcion

Colombia

M

South America

M

1985/11/13

Colombia

M

South America

T/M

1986/1/4

Nicaragua

L

Central America

G

1986/2/4

Piton de la Fournaise Tacana Akita Yakeyama Iliboleng Nevado del Ruiz Stromboli Lake Nyos Oshima Kilauea

Reunion

H

East Africa

L

1986/3/19

Mexico Japan

M H

Central America East Asia

S/T G

1986/5/7 1986/5/8

Indonesia Colombia

L M

South–east Asia South America

T H

1986/5/28 1986/6/12

Italy Cameroon Japan USA

H L H H

European Union Central Africa East Asia North America

T G I L

1986/7/24 1986/8/21 1986/11/15 1986/11/20

Oshima Sakura–jima Santa Maria Merapi Pacaya Kilauea Etna Kilauea Pacaya Kilauea Taal Oshima Kilauea Ranakah Nevado del Ruiz

Japan Japan Guatemala Indonesia Guatemala USA Italy USA Guatemala USA Philippines Japan USA Indonesia Colombia

H H M L M H H H M H M H H L M

East Asia East Asia Central America South–east Asia Central America North America European Union North America Central America North America South–east Asia East Asia North America South–east Asia South America

T/L T P N T L T L T L S T L T H

1986/11/21 1986/11/23 1986/12/1 1986/12/31 1987/1/21 1987/2/22 1987/4/17 1987/5/ 1987/6/14 1987/9/21 1987/10/30 1987/11/16 1987/12/3 1987/12/28 1988/1/4

1 1

23,080

1078–1242 4 km area residents 50,000

1242 1000

1 1 1242 1000

50,000

77,550

15,000

15,000

15,000

15

15

430

430

17,000

17,000 1

570 1700

570 1700

570 1700

4430

4430

1

1

23,080 4470

4470

8 houses/51

some homes abandoned 51 250–430 17,000

1

1 1746 1

1

1 1746 > 845 1

845 28–30 houses

6 1

300

12,000

6 many families

500

< 3000 some residents

3000 3

1 27–35

2

90 all community residents = 100 homes 10,000–13,000

27

27 7 3 homes

9

7 homes

21

1 house

600

600

a few families 150

15 150

3 4200–20,000 15,000

13,000 15,000

1 7021 1 390

12,000 6 500 1 3027 3 9 9 600 21 15 150 3 13,000 15,000

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Kilauea Tateyama Sangeang Api Canlaon

(continued on next page)

207

208

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Gamalama Nevado del Ruiz Banda Api

Indonesia Colombia

L M

South–east Asia South America

T T

1988/2/12 1988/3/22

Indonesia

L

South–east Asia

T(2)/L(1)

1988/5/8

Sakura–jima Arenal Makian Semeru Karangetang Tokachi Lonquimay Akita Yakeyama Poas

Japan Costa Rica Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Japan Chile Japan

H H L L L H H H

East Asia Central America South–east Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia South America East Asia

T T T T N M T/G

1988/6/16 1988/7/6 1988/7/17 1988/7/30 1988/11/ 1988/12/24 1988/12/25 1988//

Costa Rica

H

Central America

G

1989/1/

Aso Pacaya Stromboli Soputan Galeras Kilauea Izu–Tobu Lonquimay Kirishima Nevado del Ruiz Esa 'Ala (Dawson Strait Group) Redoubt

Japan Guatemala Italy Indonesia Colombia USA Japan Chile Japan Colombia

H M H L M H H H H M

East Asia Central America European Union South–east Asia South America North America East Asia South America East Asia South America

G L I T T L S T/G G M

1989/2/12 1989/3/7 1989/3/26 1989/4/22 1989/5/4 1989/5/15 1989/6/30 1989/6/ 1989/8/26 1989/9/1

Papua New Guinea

M

Oceania

S

Alaska

H

Aleutians

Redoubt Kelut Redoubt Aso Poas

Alaska Indonesia Alaska Japan Costa Rica

H L H H H

Mammoth Mountain Anatahan

USA Mariana Is.

Killed

Killed Injured quant

3 to 7

4

1

4 11

1

1

Injured Homeless quant

430 homes /2500

1

3500 several hundred/1900 2500 5000–10,000

Affected (incl evac) quant

TotAff quant

3500 500

3500 500

7500

7504

4 1

32 houses 1 3?

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

15,000

15,000

~800 10,000

800 10,000

160

1 3

681 and residents in nearby towns

681

120

120

1

4 2 15,000 1 160 800 10,001 3 681

300 10,000

300 10,000

< 5000

5000

1 120 1 500 2000 12 322 10,000 2 5000

1989/12/10

Dobu Is.; Oiau area

1000

1000

T/M

1989/12/14

260

260

Aleutians South–east Asia Aleutians East Asia Central America

M T(32)/M M G G

1990/1/2 1990/2/10 1990/2/15 1990/3/26 1990/3/

15 evac and ~245 affected on aircraft 7 2500 42,770–60,000 7

7 42,270 7

7 42,386 7 1 30,000

H

North America

G

1990/3/

H

Oceania

S

1990/4/4

1

1 500 – 3000 2000 4 houses

18–22 2

32–36 1

22

500 2000

12

2

35 32–81

81 500 houses

1 residents in nearby towns 1

30,000

1

1 23

23

23

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

Kilauea Aso Sabancaya Rabaul

H H M M

North America East Asia South America Oceania

L G T G

1990/4/4 1990/4/18 1990/6/5 1990/6/24

M H H

Central America Oceania North America

T G L

Ahuachapan Geothermal Field , Laguna Verde Aso Nyiragongo Kelut Santa Maria Planchón– Peteroa Taal Pinatubo Unzen Unzen

El Salvador

M

Central America

Japan Zaire Indonesia Guatemala Chile

H L L M H

Philippines Philippines Japan Japan

Pinatubo

63 houses 1

1

6

6

1990/7/19 1990/8/1 1990/10/1

4

4

T

1990/10/13

26

26 8

East Asia Central Africa South–east Asia Central America South America

G S N D T

1990/10/19 1990/11/21 1990/11/25 1991/1/ 1991/2/9

1 1 4 25

1 1 4 25

M M H H

South–east Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia

1991/4/1 1991/4/2 1991/5/19 1991/6/3

43

Philippines

M

South–east Asia

1991/6/14

640–1202

Karthala Mutnovsky Lewotobi Pacaya Galeras Hudson, Cerro Unzen Hudson, Cerro Hudson, Cerro

Comoros Kamchatka Indonesia Guatemala Colombia Chile Japan Chile Chile

L M L M M H H H H

East Africa Aleutians South–east Asia Central America South America South America East Asia South America South America

S T M P/D(1 injury) T(359 T); M(100 F&M); E(rest?) S I T T/S S M P T G

Lokon–Empung Etna Pinatubo Deception Is.

Indonesia Italy Philippines Antarctica

L H M

South–east Asia European Union South–east Asia Antarctica

T L G S

1991/10/25 1 1991/12/14 1991/4 and 5/ 1992/1/19

Santa Maria Agrigan Kilauea

1991/6/30 1991/6/ 1991/7/19 1991/7/27 1991/7/ 1991/8/11 1991/8/31 1991/8/13 1991/10/11

43 11 to 20 932 184–195

189 23 4000

4000

9 Kalapana subdivision

9 1000

8

11 210 houses 184 53,000–30,2171

350?

350

1200

1200

1 1 354 25 1200

3800 2000 1200 12,645

3800 2000 1200 13,329

967,443

1,021,559

1000

1000 1 1000 3503 11 11 570 63,200 3

3800–4000 2000 1200 630 10000–12395 + ~250 on aircraft 53,000 967193– >1.3 million + ~250 on aircraft

1 3

3 2000

~190 houses 1200 some people 1

4 9 1000 34

1000 1

189 1 4000 6

nearby residents 2000 1500 11 11 570 500 1200 62,000

1000 1500 11 11 500 62,000

3 7679–10000 7000 5000 sci team

7679 7000 5000 15

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

USA Japan Peru Papua New Guinea Guatemala Mariana Is. USA

7680 7000 5000 15

(continued on next page)

209

210

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Taal Sabancaya Ol Doinyo Lengai Dieng Cerro Negro Karangetang Pacaya Marapi Copahue Unzen Santa Maria Arenal Manam

Philippines Peru Tanzania

M M L

South–east Asia South America East Africa

S T L

1992/2/15 1992/2/19 1992/2/26

Indonesia Nicaragua Indonesia Guatemala Indonesia Chile Japan Guatemala Costa Rica Papua New Guinea USA Philippines

L L L M L H H M H M

South–east Asia Central America South–east Asia Central America South–east Asia South America East Asia Central America Central America Oceania

G I/T P T T G D M D/I L

1992/3/18 1992/4/10 1992/5/11 1992/5/ 1992/7/5 1992/8/2 1992/8/8 1992/8/ 1992/9/ 1992/10/15

H M

North America South–east Asia

I M

Pacaya Galeras Karangetang Wurlali Mayon Raoul Is. Guagua Pichincha Lascar Kilaue

Guatemala Colombia Indonesia Indonesia Philippines Kermadec Ecuador

M M L L M H M

Central America South America South–east Asia South–east Asia South–east Asia Oceania South America

T T M I(1)/D P S T

1992/11/22 1992/by end 8/ 1993/1/10 1993/1/14 1993/1/21 1993/1/21 1993/2/2 1993/3/9 1993/3/12

Chile USA

H H

South America North America

Unzen Krakatau Unzen

Japan Indonesia Japan

H L H

East Asia South–east Asia East Asia

Pinatubo Arenal Pinatubo Stromboli Semeru Yasur Taal Llaimaa

Philippines Costa Rica Philippines Italy Indonesia Vanuatu Philippines Chile

M H M H L M M H

South–east Asia Central America South–east Asia European Union South–east Asia Oceania South–east Asia South America

P L(1)/T (injuries) N T P(1)/D (evacs) N P/I M T P T S M

Kilauea Pinatubo

Killed

Killed Injured quant

1 1 2 6

12 2 50–75 61

1

15

Injured Homeless quant

1

Affected (incl evac) quant

TotAff quant

1578–2600 several towns

2600 30,000

2600 30,000 1

6000–300,000

9000

several villages

3000

150

2 50 1 > 30 houses

787,042

3 802,774

200

2 29–43 houses

3 26 6 to 7

3

600 200

26–80

500

150

< 300 200 houses 2

3 9052 157 3000 6 3 600 200 2 645

5

3 6 15,700/3281

145 500 – <6000

15,700 787,042–803,971

houses 2 villages 9 2? 1 > 70–79

98 2 1 12 75 9 to > 100

2 houses 12 100

2

1993/4/19 1993/4/19

1

1 22

22

1993/4/28 1993/6/13 1993/6/23

1 1

15 1

5

4

4

10 452 3000–4000 57,000+ 4

70

70,000

14 6 to 7 2

2000

8

2

1993/6/26 1993/8/29 1993/10/4 1993/10/16 1994/2/3 1994/2/ 1994/3/11 1994/5/17

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

1

1

2 61 21

2 1 1

452 4000 57,000 4

2000 17 454 4013 57,175 4 2

70

70 23

70,000

70,000 6 4931

4930

4930

area residents

1000

275–2000

2000

100's to 1000's 10 and 22 families/>50

1000 120

14

1004 1 14 2 2007 3 1000 120

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

Aso Huila Aso Colima Rabaul

Pacaya Kelimutu Pacaya Soufrière Hills Pinatubo Parker Ruapehu Rincon de la Vieja Cerro Negro Komaga–take Karangetang Momotombo Popocatepetl Rabaul Stromboli Canlaon Stromboli Stromboli Maderas Grimsvotn Pacaya Merapi Rabaul

H M H M M

East Asia South America East Asia Central America Oceania

G D G T

M L L M H M M M

Central America South–east Asia South–east Asia Central America East Asia Oceania South America West Africa

T(4), I(1) L M P S T S

1994/10/14 1994/11/3 1994/11/22 1994/12/21 1995/2/11 1995/2/ 1995/3/4 1995/4/2

M

Central America

L

1995/4/7

1

1

Indonesia Guatemala Montserrat Philippines Philippines New Zealand Costa Rica

L M H M M H H

South–east Asia Central America Caribbean South–east Asia South–east Asia Oceania Central America

M I M T/P N

1

1

N

1995/5/15 1995/6/7 1995/7/18 1995/7/28 1995/9/6 1995/9/24 1995/11/6

Nicaragua Japan Indonesia Nicaragua Mexico Papua New Guinea Italy Philippines Italy Italy Nicaragua Iceland Guatemala Indonesia Papua New Guinea

L H L L M M

Central America East Asia South–east Asia Central America Central America Oceania

T T/L T S T T

1995/11/19 1996/3/5 1996/3/6 1996/4/10 1996/4/30 1996/5/11

H M H H L H M L M

European Union South–east Asia European Union European Union Central America Rest of Europe Central America South–east Asia Oceania

T T T T N J P T L

1996/6/1 1996/8/10 1996/8/22 1996/9/4 1996/9/27 1996/10/1 1996/10/10 1996/10/31 1996/10/6

1994/5/29 1994/6/6 1994/6/29 1994/7/21 1994/9/18

1 ~650

2–>10

1 650 250 5 5 2–>22

250 5 2

20,000

20,000

700/some towns 50,000–106,000

700 53,000

4 1? 8

31 64 22 – >500 4 1 84 20

1300

1300

inhabitants of village

1000

1001

many families

500

6026 75,000

500

4 20

7500 > 60

60

300 homes 300 families

> 15,000 1500 50,000 70–100 1500

6

15,000 50,000 70

12,000 1000 1000 15

5 some people

3

6026 75,000

7500

12,000 residents some villagers power plant workers 5

142

142 31 6590 75,000 4 1 12 1320

142 31 > 41–66

some 3 some 1 6 6 several

3 3 1 6 5 36 houses

> 300 2 houses

1 20,000 5 700 53,007

13

180 250 few hundred 38 300 10 300

1000

15

250 300 38 300

1 500 7500 15,000 50,060 70 1500 12,000 1000 1000 15 5 1000 3 21 1 6 261 300 38 300 300

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Pacaya Rinjani Merapi Popocatepetl Yakedake Yasur Galeras Fogo

Japan Colombia Japan Mexico Papua New Guinea Guatemala Indonesia Indonesia Mexico Japan Vanuatu Colombia Cape Verde Is. Guatemala

(continued on next page)

211

212

Table 3 (continued)

Country

Dev Region

Dis code

Date yyyy /mm/dd

Killed

Killed Injured quant

Pacaya Manam

Guatemala Papua New Guinea Indonesia Japan

M M

Central America Oceania

L P/I

1996/11/11 1996/12/3

4 to 13

13 29

Merapi Akita Yakeyama Karangetang Indonesia Soufrière Hills Montserrat

L H

South–east Asia East Asia

T M

1997/1/17 1997/5/11

1 to 6

L H

South–east Asia Caribbean

1997/6/8 1997/6/25

3 19

Popocatepetl Hakkoda Semeru Adatara Aso Kilauea Kilauea Santa Maria Pacaya Arenal Mammoth Mountain Merapi Kelut Guagua Pichincha Colima Colima Cameroon Colima Telica Colima Marapi Cerro Negro

Mexico Japan Indonesia Japan Japan USA USA Guatemala Guatemala Costa Rica USA

M H L H H H H M M H H

Central America East Asia South–east Asia East Asia East Asia North America North America Central America Central America Central America North America

P P(deaths), P/T(evacs) T G T G G L L M T L/P G

1997/6/30 1997/7/12 1997/9/2 1997/9/15 1997/11/23 1998/4/28 1998/5/12 1998/5/28 1998/5/20 1998/5/5 1998/6/24

? 3 2 4 2 1

Indonesia Indonesia Ecuador

L L M

South–east Asia South–east Asia South America

T(314) N D

1998/7/~18 1998/7/~22 1998/11/9

Mexico Mexico Cameroon Mexico Nicaragua Mexico Indonesia Nicaragua

M M L M L M L L

Central America Central America Central Africa Central America Central America Central America South–east Asia Central America

S T L H H T T T

1998/11/18 1999/2/10 1999/3/28 1999/5/10 1999/6/5 1999/7/17 1999/8/5 1999/8/5

Stromboli Mayon Guagua Pinchincha Tungurahua Tungurahua San Cristóbal

Italy Philippines Ecuador

H M M

European Union South–east Asia South America

T T T

1999/8/23 1999/9/23 1999/10/3

Ecuador Ecuador Nicaragua

M M L

South America South America Central America

T T T

1999/10/5 1999/10/16 1999/11/20

1 several

3 19 5

3 others 2 4 2 1

Injured Homeless quant 29 5

1

1

10

10

314

Affected (incl evac) quant

TotAff quant

743/3 villages > 1500

743 1500

743 1542

3000–8000 staff and guests of 2 hotels 400

3444 100

3450 100

400

403 24

1500 evacs?

1500

60 families 254–600 > 400–450

300 254 450

1500 6 2 4 2 1 6 300 256 450 1

5

3

2 houses 2

Homeless Affected quant (incl evac)

2

314

6

6000 20

102 homes

3

300–758 400–650 510 600–2500 90–400? 6000 400?

2

2

1

3 14

20 300 650 600 400 6000 400 2195

2000 1,200,400

10 2000 1,200,402

26,000 4000

3 26,005 4000

10 2000–5000 1,200,400 3 4

22,000–26,000 100–4000

6314 10 20 300 650 600 400 6000 400 3 2195

3 several hundreds– 2195

10

6000

Shaded columns contain quantitative data determined from published values and ranges, or enumeration (see text for more details). Dev indicates the development level of the country.

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Volcano

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 Table 4 Best estimates of the human impacts of 20th Century volcanic events Human consequence

Number of events

Number of people

Killed Injured Homeless Evacuated/affected Any incident

260 133 81 248 491

91 724 16 013 291 457 5 281 906 5 595 500

Each event may have had more than one consequence.

ered globally, death or escape were the two main human outcomes of volcanic activity. Repeated activity at individual volcanoes may have resulted in multiple evacuations of, or impacts on, the same populations, so the same people may be included more than once in the totals. More than one type of impact can occur during a volcanic event so the values in the bnumber of eventsQ column in Table 4 are not necessarily exclusive. The btop 10Q events for each impact are given in Table 6. Many of the homeless values depend on interpretation of qualitative statements so the ranking for this category should be regarded as least certain. The death toll is dominated by the disasters at Mt. Pele´e and Nevado del Ruiz, which together account for more than 50% of the total. The top 10 events combined make up nearly 90% of the total fatalities. Nevado del Ruiz also dominates the injuries list, accounting for ~28% of the total number. The immediate impacts of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption and the subsequent impacts on the region from lahars are included as separate entries in the database and both rank highly in the homeless and evacuated/affected fields. Combining these two Pinatubo events from Table 6 shows that this one eruption was responsible for at least 26% of all people made homeless and 33% of all those evacuated/affected in the best estimates for the century. Comparison of the same events to the minimum and maximum estimates for the database yields 48% and 12%, respectively for the homeless category, demonstrating the uncertainty associated with the values in this category. 3.2. By volcano There are 176 different volcanoes/volcanic areas listed in the database (Fig. 1), of which, over half were

213

responsible for more than one incident in the 20th Century (Fig. 2). The ongoing eruption of Kilauea, Hawaii has the highest number of entries, due to separate episodes where people were injured or houses destroyed. Including Kilauea, there are nine volcanoes with ten or more events (~5% of all the volcanoes included in the database) (Table 7a) and together these account for nearly 25% of the total database entries. Summing the impacts at each volcano over the 20th Century shows that certain volcanoes dominate the impact lists (Table 8). In many cases this is due to one large eruption: Pinatubo heads the lists for both the number of homeless and the number of people affected, due to its 1991 eruption and consequent lahars. Nevado del Ruiz ranks second behind Pele´e for deaths, but is highest for injuries. Taal appears in the top 10 for deaths, injuries and people affected/ evacuated. El Chicho´n and Merapi rank in the top 10 for deaths, injuries and homelessness. Lake Nyos is in the top 10 for deaths and injuries and Agung appears in the top ten lists for both the injuries and evacuated/ affected categories. Comparison of the total impacts (Table 8) to the number of events causing the impacts at each volcano (Table 7) shows that most of the volcanoes appearing in the high rankings for number of events do not appear in the top rankings for total impacts, and vice versa. This suggests that the high impact totals are controlled by a few big volcanic events, rather than many smaller events. Stromboli tops the list for number of injury events due to its popularity as a tourist destination, as here the majority of injury events were to tourists near the crater. Asama and Aso top the number of fatality events for similar reasons. At Asama the majority of deaths were of climbers on the volcano when it erupted, at Aso incidents involved death and injury of tourists at the Table 5 Minimum and maximum estimates of values for each consequence based on the ranges of values found in the literature Human consequence

Minimum

Maximum

Killed Injured Homeless Evacuated/affected Any incident

78 840 12 315 143 559 4 933 930 5 146 460

98 293 16 096 544 978 6 342 265 6 912 032

214

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Table 6 Top 10 events by impact Rank

Killed

Injured

Homeless

Evacuated/affected

Event

People

Event

People

Event

People

Event

People

1

Pele´e, 1902

29 000

4470

Pinatubo, 1991

53 000

Nevado del Ruiz, 1985 Santa Maria, 1902 Kelut, 1919 Santa Maria, 1929 Lamington, 1951 El Chicho´n, 1982

23 080

2000

Kelut, 1919

45 000

Guagua Pichincha, 1999 Pinatubo, 1991

1 200 400

2

Nevado del Ruiz, 1985 Awu, 1966

8750 5110 5000 2942 2000

Ambrym, 1979 Dieng, 1979 Lake Nyos, 1986 Taal, 1965 El Chicho´n, 1982

1000 1000 845 785 500

Galunggung, 1982 Pinatubo, 1992 Tokachi, 1926 El Chicho´n, 1982 Merapi, 1930

22 000 15 700 15 000 15 000 13 000

1746 1565

Merapi, 1994 Merapi, 1998

500 314

Merapi, 1961 Soufrie`re Hills, 1995

1369

Vesuvius, 1906

300

Colo (Una Una), 1983

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sum (% of total)

Lake Nyos, 1986 Soufriere St. Vincent, 1902 Merapi, 1930

80 562 (87.8)

11 714 (73.2)

crater caused by tephra and ballistics, and also deaths due to high gas concentrations. 3.3. By country and development Forty-six countries and island groups are represented in the database. Table 9 contains the countries

967 443 787 042 332 234 100 000 75 000 73 500

8000 7500

Pinatubo, 1992 Agung, 1963 Vesuvius, 1906 Popocate´petl, 1994 Soufrie`re Guadeloupe, 1976 Mayon, 1984 Arenal, 1976

7101

Galunggung, 1982

62 755

201 301 (69.1)

73 000 70 000

3 741 374 (70.8)

with the greatest numbers of people affected by each of the impacts summed over all events. Although the data are grouped together, the top listings in the bkilledQ category are dominated by single eruptions (cf. Table 6). Indonesia and the Philippines occur within the top 6 in each category; Indonesia appears due to its high number of active volcanoes, which

Fig. 1. Location of the volcanoes contained in the database.

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

215

registered the lowest number of events for deaths, injuries and homelessness, whilst high-income countries are top. This shows that the average impacts of events in middle-income countries are worse than for high or low-income countries. The number of countries in each development level is 20 for highincome, 16 for middle-income, and 8 for low-income. Antarctica and the South Sandwich Islands were not given a development level due to their lack of permanent occupation. 3.4. By region The Caribbean and South America are the two regions where the most people were killed in the 20th Century, with 30,584 and 23,912 deaths, respectively (Table 11). These results are almost entirely accounted for by just two eruptions, the 1902 eruption of Mt Pele´e in the Caribbean (29,000 dead) and the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in South America (23,080 dead), which rank as the two most fatal eruptions in the century (see above). South-east Asia (here containing only Indonesia and the Philippines) ranks highest in all other categories and accounts for the greatest number of events. Fig. 4 shows that in most of the regions not experiencing large fatal eruptions, more people were made homeless than killed or injured. The number of events occurring in each region per decade in the century (Fig. 5) shows a steep increase over time. South-east Asia and Central America show

Fig. 2. Number of times each volcano is listed in the database.

result in many events, whereas the Philippines record is more controlled by larger events at a few volcanoes, such as Pinatubo, Taal and Mayon. Japan registers the highest number of incidents (Table 10), but the data show that many of these were small, affecting only a few people. Consequently, Japan ranks lower than Indonesia in the category totals, even though they have similarly high number of incidents. Looking at the countries by their development level (Fig. 3) shows that over the whole century middle-income countries were most affected by volcanic incidents, registering the highest numbers of deaths, injuries and evacuated/affected, whilst lowincome countries suffered the highest amount of homelessness. In terms of the number of events causing the impacts (Fig. 3b), middle-income countries

Table 7 Number of events in the database for each impact for the top ranking volcanoes: (a) total events; (b) fatalities; (c) injuries; (d) homelessness and (e) evacuees or persons affected (a) Total events

(b) Killed

(c) Injured

(d) Homeless

(e) Evacuated/affected

Volcano

Count

Volcano

Count

Volcano

Count

Volcano

Count

Volcano

Count

Kilauea Merapi Asama Aso, Pacaya Semuru Karangetang Sakura-jima Santa Maria Etna, Stromboli Taal

20 18 14 12

Asama Merapi Aso, Semeru Kelut Tateyama Dieng Karangetang Etna, Hakone Mayon Sakura-jima Santa Maria Usu, Villarica

13 11 9 7

Stromboli Merapi Aso Sakura-jima Kilauea Arenal Karangetang Asama, Dieng Etna, Pacaya Taal

8 7 6

Kilauea Merapi Karangetang Semeru Etna, Kelut Unzen Aso, Dieng Manam Miyake-jima Pinatubo, Rabaul

10 9 5 4 3

Pacaya Merapi Taal Kilauea Mt. St. Helens Nevado del Ruiz Pinatubo Cerro Negro, Colima Karangetang, Manam Mayon, Unzen Santa Maria

12 10 8 6

10

9

6 5

5 4 3

2

5

216

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

Table 8 The most calamitous volcanoes in the 20th Century by human impact Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Killed

Injured

Homeless

Evacuated/affected

Volcano

Sum

Volcano

Sum

Volcano

Sum

Volcano

Sum

Pele´e Nevado Del Ruiz Santa Maria Kelut Lamington El Chicho´n Lake Nyos Merapi Soufriere St Vincent Taal

29 000 23 080 13 780 5478 2942 2001 1746 1590 1565 1525

Nevado Del Ruiz Awu Dieng Taal Ambrym Merapi Lake Nyos El Chicho´n Vesuvius Agung

4470 2000 1252 1084 1000 932 845 503 301 296

Pinatubo Kelut Merapi Galunggung El Chicho´n Tokachi Soufrie`re Hills Colo (Una Una) Etna Mayon

68 700 52 500 32 275 22 000 15 000 15 000 7500 7101 6350 6000

Pinatubo Guagua Pichincha Agung Mayon Arenal Taal Vesuvius Nevado del Ruiz Popocatepetl Campi Flegrei

1 777 485 1 200 400 332 234 200 000 122 841 100 925 100 000 87 200 76 500 76 000

particular large increases in incident numbers towards the end of the century, whereas the first half of the century is dominated by events in East Asia. This trend is in part due to increasing population densities close to volcanic centres in these regions. 3.5. By phenomena causing incident Ninety-four percent of the events in the database have one or more causes associated with them. In the cases where multiple causes are given, the exact proportions of deaths etc due to each are not always clear. In five instances in the database, two phenomena seem to have been equally responsible for impacts and evacuations. For the purposes of quantitative evaluation, numbers were divided equally between the two causes in these instances. Table 12 summarises the numbers of people affected by each phenomenon during the 20th Century. These values are approximate only, due to the uncertainty in the numb-

ers reported and also how the impacts were caused. Pyroclastic currents were the main cause of death (Table 12 and Fig. 6), followed by primary lahars, which were also the principal cause of injuries. Tephra were responsible for the highest numbers of people made homeless and evacuated/affected. No cases of famine are reported in the Century, but disease was responsible for deaths following the eruptions of Santa Maria, 1902, and Pinatubo, 1991. Table 12 demonstrates that the different phenomena had different human outcomes. For example, an average of 16 people were killed for every one person injured by pyroclastic currents, whereas for tephra 1–2 people were killed for every one injured, but over 700 people were evacuated or affected. Historical eruptions such as the Laki Craters, 1783–1784 (e.g., Steingrimsson, 1784) and Tambora, 1815 (e.g., Post, 1977) have shown that illness and famine following volcanic eruptions can cause evacuations and relocation of people, although no examples of these outcomes

Table 9 Top 10 countries by impact Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Killed

Injured

Homeless

Evacuated/affected

Country

Sum

Country

Sum

Country

Sum

Country

Sum

Martinique Colombia Guatemala Indonesia Papua New Guinea Philippines Mexico Cameroon St Vincent Japan

29 000 23 763 13 804 10 272 3499 3279 2109 1783 1565 728

Indonesia Colombia Philippines Vanuatu Cameroon Japan Mexico Italy Costa Rica Chile

5169 4732 1386 1001 846 690 503 424 304 203

Indonesia Philippines Japan Mexico Montserrat Costa Rica Italy Papua New Guinea Guatemala Western Samoa/Tonga

128 282 76 200 20 218 17 528 7500 6780 6560 6155 5000 5000

Philippines Ecuador Indonesia Italy Costa Rica Mexico Japan Colombia Chile Papua New Guinea

2 136 125 1 226 420 721 378 183 500 161 022 159 238 138 111 109 211 87 779 75 800

C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233

217

Table 10 Countries registering ten or more incidents in the 20th Century

Table 11 Impacts by region

Country

Number of incidents

Region

Japan Indonesia Philippines USA Guatemala Italy Chile Papua New Guinea Costa Rica Mexico Colombia Vanuatu Nicaragua

102 99 36 31 26 24 20 16 13 12 12 11 11

% of killed

Aleutians Antarctica Caribbean Central Africa Central America East Africa East Asia European Union Iceland North America North Atlantic Oceania South America South Atlantic South-east Asia

0.007 – 33.344 2.637

– – 1.724 5.346

– – 2.573 0.449

0.001 0.001 1.777 1.105

0.001 0.001 2.363 1.115

9 3 7 9

17.924

5.633 10.323

7.095

7.236

66

0.023 0.796 0.300

0.012 4.309 2.648

1.047 6.937 2.251

0.169 2.611 3.477

0.160 9 2.827 104 3.411 25

0.002 0.071

– 0.881

0.309 1.027

0.107 0.100

0.101 0.154

4 31

0.016

0.125

–

0.135

0.128

4

1.739 1.819 27.602 26.584

42 42

were recorded in the 20th Century. Conversely, the hazard of eruption is unlikely to cause death or injury, unless by accident or stress during evacuation. 3.6. By year The number of recorded incidents in each year shows a large increase with time. This may reflect various factors including increased reporting of volcanic events; increased use of mass evacuation in risk mitigation; increasing populations at risk, and any actual changes in global volcanic activity with time. There is a particularly strong increase from the 1970s. This increase could be artificial, due to increased reporting of events, or a real function of either increased activity or increased population densities in hazardous areas. The Smithsonian Institution’s record of eruptions does show an apparent slight increase in

% of % of % of % of Number injured homeless affected total of events affected

4.038 7.500 26.070 30.887 –

–

4.514 0.412 –

14.774 40.935 70.159

0.005

0.005

1

54.077 54.096 135

volcanic activity over the same time, which is attributed to improved reporting of smaller events (Simkin and Siebert, 1994). Normalising the incident data with the Smithsonian Institution’s record does not remove the trend, however (Fig. 7), suggesting that the increase in incidents is real. The years of World War II are often highlighted as being a time of reduced activity reporting due to the global situation, however,

Fig. 3. Distribution of impacts by country development level (a) total numbers of people impacted summed over all events in the 20th Century (note logarithmic scale), (b) number of events.

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Fig. 4. Distribution of fatalities, injuries and homelessness by region. Pie chart size represents the relative magnitude of the 3 combined impacts (regions with null or very low values are shown as triangles).

1944 stands out in the normalised data as being well above the trend for the number of incidents. No incidents are recorded in 1908, 1915, 1916, 1922, 1927, 1935, 1942 and 1945.

To examine the worst volcanic incidents, the EMDAT criteria for a bdisasterQ (10 or more persons killed or 100 or more persons affected) were applied to the database. This revealed that about 60% (296) of the

Fig. 5. Number of incidents occurring in each region by decade in the 20th Century. The curves are stacked for clarity.

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219

Table 12 Impacts by cause Code

Phenomenon

D E F G H I J L M N P S T W U

Debris flows/avalanches Epidemic Famine Gas/acid rain Volcanic unrest Other indirect Jo¨kulhlaups Lava Primary lahars Secondary lahars/flooding Pyroclastic currents Seismicity Tephra Tsunami (waves) Unknown

Killed (% of events)

Injured (% of events)

741 (2.4) 5180 (0.7)

267 (3.7)

2016 (14.5)

2860 (6.6)

167 (4.8)

161 (3.7)

664 29 937 797 44 928 391 6047 661 195

(4.5) (12.5) (7.3) (13.5) (2.4) (29.1) (2.4) (5.9)

56 5022 178 2762 66 4321 300 20

(6.6) (5.9) (5.1) (15.4) (2.9) (43.4) (1.5) (5.1)

Homeless (% of events) 4600 (2.5)

21 490 91 400 1925 72 481 1448 97 513

(33.3) (12.3) (6.2) (23.5) (2.5) (22.2)

600 (1.2)

Evac/affected (% of events) 28 950 (1.6)

58 138 33 000 1000 300 113 052 1 078 331 84 415 521 859 165 700 3 103 580

(3.6) (2.8) (0.4) (0.4) (13.3) (10.5) (4.4) (11.7) (10.1) (36.7)

93 581 (5.6)

Numbers in brackets give the percentage of events caused by each phenomenon for each impact.

491 20th Century events could be classed as a disaster. These disasters have a very similar temporal distribution to that of all the events (Fig. 8). Increases over time are seen in each of the individual impact categories (Fig. 9), but the steepest rise occurs in the evacuated and affected category. Again, this may be an artificial increase due to improved collection of data and reporting of impacts or it may be a genuine reflection of evacuations becoming more frequent as the century progressed. Looking at the impact categories by year confirms previous results

Fig. 6. Percentage distribution by cause for fatalities, injuries, homelessness and persons evacuated/affected. Definition of the letter codes is given in Table 12.

that the sums of the impacts are dominated by a few events. Fig. 9 demonstrates that even though there is an increase in events with time, this does not correlate with an increase in the numbers of people affected with time.

4. Discussion An important aspect of disaster mitigation is the compilation of reliable statistics on injuries and deaths from past events (Woo, 1999). This new database

Fig. 7. Number of incidents per year normalised by the number of eruptions starting that year.

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Fig. 8. The number of events that can be classified as a disaster compared to the total number of events per year.

compiles volcano-related human impacts for the recent historical period and allows analysis of these data by impact, volcano, country or region. Maximum and minimum estimates of the impacts show that there is

considerable uncertainty within the historical records, particularly for people made homeless. Error ranges for the impacts based on estimated maximums and minimums are 14%/+7% for fatalities, 23%/+ 1% for injuries, 50%/+87% for homelessness, 7%/ + 21% for evacuated and affected. The larger negative uncertainties come from rounding up and over-estimation of numbers of people in reports, and the use of potentially inflated default values in the quantitative evaluation of the database. Actual positive error uncertainties will also be higher due to under-reporting of events. This poor data quality limits the conclusions that can be drawn from any detailed numerical analysis of the data. The impact totals are dominated by a few eruptions, in particular Mt Pele´e, Martinique, 1902; Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991, and Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, 1985. Activity at Guagua Pichincha in 1999 caused widespread ashfall over the city of Quito and this consequently also ranks very highly

Fig. 9. The number of events and human consequences per year for (a) fatalities; (b) injuries; (c) homelessness and (d) evacuations/affected. Important eruptions for each impact are highlighted.

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in the affected category. This event is a good example of the changing definition of baffectedQ and its inclusion in the database was only made possible by the reporting of the numbers involved. Such values have rarely been reported previously (area covered by ash is more common) hindering attempts to include other ashfall events in the database. Some volcanoes appear in the top 10 for more than one impact, but this is often due to one large eruption with many severe impacts rather than several smaller events. Differences in the top 10 lists by impact—for example the high fatalities, but minimal evacuees at Mt Pele´e compared to the massive evacuation and comparatively low death toll at Pinatubo—appear to reflect improvements in risk management (monitoring, hazard assessment, mitigation and response) with time. The increase in evacuation events over the 20th Century shown by the database, may reflect not only increasing populations living in hazardous areas, but also increased awareness of volcanic risks, and a willingness in many quarters to undertake costly and disruptive civil defence procedures (Chester et al., 2001). For example, nearly 300,000 people have been evacuated during volcanic crises in Indonesia alone between 1970 and 1999. The increase may be also due to increased reporting of evacuations over time. Not all displacement of people occurs in controlled evacuations, but there is frequently insufficient information to determine how spontaneous or ordered evacuations were, particularly for the earlier events in the database. The dominance of Kilauea in the number of total events and homeless events is due to many separate incidents over time, mostly during the ongoing eruption that began in 1983. It is debatable whether cases such as this, with one long-term period of activity causing many events, should be combined under a single record. In the Kilauea case, we believe that the entry of each incident separately is justified, due to the long time period between each one and the changes of activity at the volcano needed for them to occur in most cases. Grouping all the impacts in one event represented by the start date of the eruption would give a misleading indication of the course of human impacts over time. This is also true for the incidents associated with the ongoing eruption of Sakura-jima. The maximum death toll in the 20th Century of 29,000 from Mt Pele´e is approximately half that of the

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1815 Tambora eruption, which has the largest historical death toll. Both of these totals reflect the combination of volcanic phenomena and population distribution. The Pele´e total, for instance, was limited by the size of the town of St. Pierre, which was destroyed by pyroclastic currents in the eruption. Chester et al. (2001) believed that, in many respects, it was only a matter of chance that total casualties were not higher in the 20th Century. Some of the largest eruptions occurred in regions with low population densities (e.g., Katmai, Alaska 1912 and Bezymianny, Kamchatka 1955/56) and thus had minimal human impacts. Historically, epidemic following large eruptions was a major cause of volcano-related death. It is estimated that ~49,000 died from disease and famine following the Tambora eruption, for example. In the 20th Century, such large-scale epidemics were rare. This change is, in part, related to the growth of aid agencies, which can rapidly react to natural disasters, and increased disaster preparedness. Following the 1994 eruption of Rabaul, for example, local health services were able to deal with all casualties due to the preparedness of the population (Dent et al., 1995). Disease is still a threat though, as evidenced by fatal outbreaks of measles and gastro-intestinal ailments in evacuation centres following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Bautista, 1996). Pyroclastic currents and lahars (both primary and secondary) caused the greatest number of deaths and injuries in the 20th Century, but the most frequent cause of both was tephra (including ballistics). Tephra was also responsible for the highest numbers of people made homeless and evacuated/affected. Simkin et al. (2001) suggested that greater focus should be put on tephra hazards and our results concur that the effects of tephra fall should not be overlooked. However, even though tephra fatality events have a high frequency, the numbers of deaths involved each time are small and it is unlikely that tephra fall would ever cause the thousands of casualties seen in pyroclastic current and lahar events. Perhaps of greater importance, is the capability of tephra to affect large areas and its role in forcing evacuations. These impacts are not necessarily as tractable as Simkin et al. (2001) proposed. Tilling (1990) calculated an average for eruptioncaused deaths per year of 845 for the 20th Century and 315 for the 17th–19th Centuries. This work

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increases this 20th Century value to 917, partly due to its inclusion of deaths not directly associated with eruptions. Tables 7 and 8 demonstrate, however, that the human impacts at each volcano are not correlated with the number of eruptions that occur. Instead, the incident totals are dominated by uncommon large events. For this reason, and because not all the events in the database are linked to eruptive activity (and in some cases multiple events are due to only one period of activity), comparisons of the number and magnitude of incidents with the number of eruptions at each volcano are not particularly justified. Similarly, the calculation of average impacts per event is strongly dependent on the circumstances at individual volcanoes. Extrapolation of averages to future events ignores the fact that these circumstances may have changed considerably since the last event. Given the apparent increase in the number of events affecting people over the course of the century, the calculation of repeat times of large events also does not seem valid. The low recurrence rates at the start of the century will result in underestimation of repeat times, an outcome that is detrimental for risk assessment. The events that contribute the highest numbers of affected people in the database are large eruptions that impacted wide areas of the surrounding land and local populations, and caused many casualties and/or required wide-scale evacuation. There are, however, a significant number of much smaller events that affected small numbers of people. In many of these instances, the impacts were to tourists and visitors (including climbers and students), or scientists. Deaths and injuries to tourists on volcanoes during the 20th Century amount to at least 156 and 218, respectively, and for scientists 47 (including the crew of a lost research ship (Minakami, 1956)) and 10, respectively. At volcanoes such as Asama, Aso and Stromboli the majority of casualties have been tourists. In most cases, the categories of affected and evacuated are made up by local populations, but there are some events, such as Llaima, 1979, Ruapehu, 1995 and Akita Yakeyama, 1997, where tourists were evacuated from hazardous areas. Minor injuries at volcanoes generally go unreported. These include fall injuries, which are probably not uncommon amongst visitors to volcanoes unfamiliar with or illequipped for the difficult terrain encountered.

Baxter (2000) considered survivability ratios for pyroclastic currents from eight large historical eruptions. These are the ratio between the number of people killed and the number of people injured by a single phenomenon. Such information is useful in risk management especially in planning for search-andrescue efforts. However, the information required to calculate ratios is often lacking; obtaining accurate numbers for the numbers of people killed is rarely straightforward and constraining numbers of people injured is even harder, as minor injuries are not always reported. Many reports fail to state the numbers of people affected, let alone those who managed to avoid and/or survive volcanic phenomena. The additional uncertainty regarding cause of impact in some instances limits the number of events in this database for which survivability could be calculated with any confidence. The ratio of killed/injured also conceals information regarding the nature of injuries sustained; people’s locations at the time of the event; response patterns; socio-economic status, etc., all of which may have a strong influence on individual vulnerability. Such factors are relevant to consideration of numbers of people likely to ignore evacuation orders or exclusion zones. There appears to be very little information on the numbers of people who disobey evacuation orders and mention is generally only given if an incident occurs, biasing reports towards greater impacts and lower survivability. The geographical distribution of volcanic disasters is strongly influenced by the proximity of volcanic activity to areas of high population density. Analyses of the global distribution of human population with respect to recent volcanism (Ewert and Harpel, 2004; Small and Naumann, 2001) find that high population densities lie closer to volcanoes in Southeast Asia and Central America than in other volcanic regions. Our data reveal that over the course of the 20th Century these were the two regions experiencing the most rapid rise in volcanic incidents with time. Additionally, these regions together with South America were the worst affected by volcanic incidents in the whole century. Some of the densest populations in volcanically active areas are in tropical developing countries, which are currently experiencing sustained population growth (Small and Naumann, 2001). This will result in significantly more people being at risk from volcanic hazards in the near future than in the past (this

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increasing trend is already apparent in the incident data). In order to quantify this risk, Ewert and Harpel (2004) have constructed a Volcano Population Index (VPI), which gives the numbers of people living close to volcanoes. They calculate two measures of the VPI based on radii of 5 and 10 km from the vent. A review of recent small to moderate volcanic activity in Central America (Ewert and Harpel, 2004) showed that people within 5 km of a threatening volcano almost certainly will be evacuated and people within 5 to 10 km may be evacuated depending on conditions. The development level results show that the average number of people impacted per event is substantially higher in middle-income countries than in highincome countries. The high number of fatality events seen in high-income countries is, in part, due to the Japanese record, where there are many events causing only one or two fatalities. Analysis of all types of disaster (Shah, 1983), also found that low-to-middle income countries suffered the greatest social impact. Unfortunately, the exposure to volcanic hazards for developing countries is significant and increasing, and, at the start of the 1990s, more than 500 million people (Tilling and Lipman, 1993) (~9% of the world’s population (Small and Naumann, 2001)) were at risk from volcanic hazards. A range of eruption impacts has been examined here, but there are still others that might prove useful in risk management, such as the area affected and economic costs (including immediate financial damage and longer-term economic effects). Other criteria could also be included in the event definitions, including eruption magnitude (e.g., the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) or that proposed by Pyle (2000) based on the mass of erupted lava or tephra) or lahar volume, etc. Such measures, however, detract from the fact that vulnerable populations, not just large eruptions, are necessary for disaster to occur and that each eruption circumstance will be different. In addition, such criteria cannot be applied to all the events listed in the database. One of the primary uses of natural hazard data is in informing risk management policy. However, the limitations of the data must be recognised. Hittelman et al. (2001) reviewed some of the main causes of error in natural hazard data catalogues. These include translation, re-entering and interpretation of source data, errors in the source data, manipulation of facts for

223

political or cultural reasons, and propagation of errors through different catalogues and literature. Some of these errors have been uncovered in other catalogues during the compilation of this database. Undoubtedly, despite our best endeavours, some occur in this database. In disasters, most reporting sources have a vested interest in the numbers they report, and figures are inflated or deflated according to socio-political considerations (Sapir and Misson, 1992). To attempt to account for this, we have listed all the ranges of numbers given in different sources within the database. Appreciation of these limitations is essential for the appropriate use of the data. One of the problems found during compilation of the database was the sometimes-ambiguous nomenclature of impact reporting. For instance, the word bcasualtyQ could be taken to mean either killed or injured. The use of baffectedQ also seems to change with time. In earlier events in the database, it appears that the evacuated/affected category contains mainly evacuee numbers. Towards the end of the century, numbers of people severely affected by ashfall also start to be included. There is clearly a distinct difference between the two impacts and there is a need to separate out the two categories. This requires clear and accurate reporting. For evacuations, the length of time that populations are displaced would also be a useful measure. It also may be that people are unable to return to their homes after activity ceases or choose not to. Another issue is that impact data generally do not take account of people who may have been affected by respiratory problems during eruptions. Such an impact is difficult to measure, particularly as the effect on health may be short-lived or take many years to be manifest, and requires very careful epidemiological work to identify. From a global disaster perspective, volcanic incidents do not feature high on the list in terms of number of events or number of people affected or killed. The maximum number of fatalities in any one 20th Century volcanic event was 29,000. For comparison, the bworld’s worstQ geological disaster, the Tangshan earthquake in July 1976, killed 240,000 people in the People’s Republic of China (Shah, 1983). In the 20th Century, the disaster record was dominated in number by hydro-meteorological events (CRED, 2004–; Shah, 1983). Comparison of the values from this database with those from other di-

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saster types listed in EM-DAT (Table 13) shows that volcanoes were responsible for only about 0.28% of disaster fatalities in the 20th Century. Errors with the EM-DAT values are discussed below, but this percentage will be of the correct magnitude. 4.1. Comparison with other databases We believe that the new database is a considerable improvement over others available (Table 14), although it almost certainly retains errors that might be corrected in future. The database contains ~23% more fatality entries than the Simkin and Siebert (1994) database for the same period (there are 22 fatality entries after 1994 in this database) and N50% more disaster events than EM-DAT. Simkin et al. (2001) used a total of ~215 fatal eruptions in the 20th Century in their assessment of historical volcano fatalities, compared with 260 in this database. They analysed eruption fatalities from the 14th to 20th Centuries. Over this time period they found that pyroclastic currents were responsible for the highest number of fatalities, and our database shows that this finding holds for the 20th Century. They found that the greatest number of fatal eruptions occurred in the 20th Century, and suggested that an average of 2– 4 fatal eruptions occurred per year in recent decades. In agreement with this figure, we find that since 1950 the average number of fatal events per year was 3.5. Pre-1950, the average was much lower at 1.7. Simkin

Table 13 Fatalities from all disasters in the 20th Century (CRED, 2004) Disaster type

Fatalities

Drought Earthquake Epidemic Extreme temperature Famine Flood Industrial accident Miscellaneous accident Landslide/avalanche Transport accident Volcano Wave/surge Wild fire Wind storm Grand total

10 009 662 1 870 590 6 790 363 19 406 7 808 299 7 466 563 35 778 117 078 55 425 127 970 98 376 12 839 2479 1 209 055 35 623 883

Table 14 Comparison of the contents of volcanic incident databases that cover the 20th Century Source

Period of cover in the 20th Century

Number of events listed

CRED-EMDAT Simkin and Siebert (1994)— fatal events Tanguy et al. (1998) This database—all This database—disasters This database—fatal events

1900–1999 1900–1994

163 193

1900–1997 1900–1999 1900–1999 1900–1999

27 491 296 260

et al. (2001) also believe, as we do for the 20th Century, that much of the increase seen in fatalities is real and is linked to global population increase and not to eruption frequency, which has remained roughly constant through recent centuries. Previous estimates of fatalities in the 20th Century are 86,224 (Tanguy et al., 1998) and 98,376 (CRED, 2004–). Our result of 91,724 increases the Tanguy et al. (1998) value by 6%, by the inclusion of smaller events. Errors in EM-DAT (discussed below) are responsible for its larger value. Comparison of the causes of the 20th Century fatalities to those from 1600–1899 (Table 15) reveals a change in the dominant phenomena in these time periods. Disease, starvation and tsunami were responsible for the highest proportion of fatalities in the early historical period, with the eruptions of the Laki Craters, 1783, Tambora, 1815, and Krakatoa, 1883 (tsunami), contributing the majority of these deaths. In the 20th Century, the dominant phenomena were pyroclastic currents and lahars. This change in phenomena in part represents the availability of better aid and care for those affected by eruptions, which has reduced the hazard of famine and epidemic in recent decades. It is also due to the dominance of the 20th Century values by a few eruptions that had high death tolls caused by these phenomena, in particular Mt Pele´e, 1902 (pyroclastic currents), and Nevado del Ruiz, 1985 (lahars). 4.1.1. Issues with CRED-EMDAT Examination of the EM-DAT data reveals the presence of a variety of errors in the database. These are errors both of omission (events are missing) and commission (events have been included falsely) (Table 16). Of the events in the new database that

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Table 15 Deaths by volcanic hazards from 1600–1899 (after Blong, 1984) compared to the 20th Century (this database) and the combined totals Hazard Lava Tephra/ballistic Pyroclastic flows/ debris avalanches Lahar/jokulhlaups Seismic activity Tsunami Atmospheric effects Gases and acid rains Disease, starvation etc Other indirect Unknown Total

1600–1899

%

1900–1999

Total

%

900 7934 18 208

0.482 4.251 9.757

664 6047 45 669

0.72 6.59 49.97

1564 13 981 63 877

0.56 5.02 22.95

8308 57 43 949 60 2 92 150 – 15 049 186 617

4.452 0.031 23.550 0.032 0.001 49.379 – 8.064 100

30 734 391 661 – 2016 5180 167 195 91 724

33.51 0.43 0.72 – 2.20 5.65 0.18 0.21 100

39 042 448 44 610 60 2018 97 330 167 15 244 278 341

14.03 0.16 16.03 0.02 0.73 34.97 0.06 5.48 100

would rank as a disaster on the EM-DAT specifications, only 43% have a CRED listing (some have more than one!) and 167 events are missing from EM-DAT. These include the 1929 eruption of Santa Maria, Guatemala that killed approximately 5000 and the repeat evacuations of the Campri Flegrei area, Italy, which involved up to 40000 people each time. Eleven events are listed twice or more, with consequently at least one listing containing inaccurate dates. Worryingly, N 36% of the original CRED disaster events are significantly inaccurate with respect to Table 16 Assessment of errors within the volcano event records of the CRED EM-DAT database for the 20th Century Error

Number of events

Percentage of the total events

No volcano named Incomplete or misspelt volcano name Event listing refers to the wrong volcano Wrong country given Non-volcanic event No impacts given

20 15

12.3 9.2

1

0.6

2 3 10

1.2 1.8 6.1

For events with impacts: No month Wrong month Wrong year Listed twice Listed 3 times Completely wrong—no other evidence for the event

%

10 10 11 9 repeats 2 trebles 2

6.8 6.8 7.4 12.2 4.1 1.4

their details (Table 16). This includes listings under the wrong year (but does not consider month or day within the year); events attributed to the wrong volcano, or an unnamed volcano; listings with the wrong country; events that were incorrectly associated with a non-volcanic cause; and events that did not appear to happen in that no other reference to them could be found (unusual for a bdisasterQ). There are also three records where two nearby eruptions are entered as one disaster event. The specification of the correct volcano name is very important for clarity and interpretability, particularly as many volcanoes have similar names. In many cases, the name given in EM-DAT for the volcano refers to the cone or is a synonym. Where this happens there are often double entries for the event. Of the correctly defined events (~60%), the percentage with incorrect human impacts values is very high. CRED makes it clear that EM-DAT should be treated as representative rather than precise, but if similar mistakes and errors prevail in other parts of the database this suggests that even these representative figures could be out by up to 30% (based on comparison of impacts totals for volcanic disasters in this database to those in EM-DAT). One of the causes of the inaccuracies is that the reports used in CRED tend to come from news agencies and non-governmental organisations rather than peer-reviewed papers, so values will not have been double-checked and the initial source of the information is often unknown. One of the problems with the event records in EMDAT is that they do not discriminate between popula-

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tions that are put on an increased alert status and those that are actually evacuated or directly affected. In a number of cases, e.g., Soputan 1984, Rabaul, 1983, the population that was put on alert is listed as being affected, whereas the actual affect may have been minimal. Such EM-DAT records were not included in the database. In some cases, the number of people made homeless is also included in the number of people affected. This results in a double count of these people in the total affected category and gives a falsely high representation of the human impacts of the activity. A similar issue exists with doubling up of numbers of homeless and evacuated people. The use of the term bAffectedQ as a category is not straightforward in the volcanic context. The main problem is that many eruptions deposit substantial amounts of tephra over large areas. Wherever this tephra falls people will be baffectedQ. The extent to which they are affected depends strongly on the thickness of tephra fallout, the presence of adsorbed materials on the ash, and the land-use of the area (e.g., urban vs. rural). The effects may be limited to having to clear roofs and driveways etc., or be much more severe such as roof collapse. The minor impacts may be considered less invasive to livelihoods than evacuation, yet the two are currently grouped together with little further explanatory data. For this reason, it would be desirable to add a new category for bevacueesQ. Some EM-DAT records are included based on financial damage, but there are problems with defining a disaster as an event that has significant damage in terms of finance for volcanic events. Losses from crop damage etc are often not quantifiable and people who lose cattle, other animals or crops as a result of volcanic activity are rarely listed. These numbers could be quite large, such as followed the eruption of Lonquimay in 1989–90, and would probably result in the inclusion of many more events in the database. Information on financial losses is also often unavailable or not recorded, making consistency of records difficult. Even within EM-DAT there is inconsistency in this regard, as the 2001 eruption of Etna is included, but the 1983 eruption, which also caused substantial damage, is not. The use of financial damage would also mean that all incidents involving aircraft should be considered. Damage to aircraft that fly through volcanic plumes can be substantial (Miller and Casa-

devall, 2000) and the economic impacts of airport closure due to tephra are likely to be significant, although they are rarely quantified. Another important consideration with regard to financial damage is that the relative cost—calculated with respect to the country’s gross national product (GNP)—might be very different than the absolute cost. This relative cost is an important factor and, of course, correlates strongly with levels of development. The CRED database is the basis of reports compiled by the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) for individual countries in the Asian region and contained in the ADRC 20th Century Asian Natural Disasters Data Book (Asian Disaster Reduction Center, 2002). We have already highlighted the omission of events from EM-DAT and the repetition of events with different disaster codes (also called GLIDE numbers). We note the many caveats about the EM-DAT given in the CRED literature and emphasise the potential value of bcleaning-upQ the record of disaster events and incidents for the purposes of risk mitigation.

5. Conclusions A new database of volcanic incidents in the 20th Century has been constructed. It reveals that about 91,724 people were killed by volcanic phenomena during this time period and that the best estimate for the number of people affected is about 5.6 million. These values represent an improvement on previous estimates, as they include minor and non-eruption volcanic events, and correct errors present in other databases. The totals are dominated by the few large disasters that occurred in the century, including the eruptions of Mt Pele´e, 1902, Nevado del Ruiz, 1985, and Pinatubo, 1991. Indonesia and the Philippines rank in the top six countries in all human impact categories and these countries, and the Pinatubo eruption in particular, strongly control the result that the most affected region was South-east Asia. Martinique was the country with the highest death toll, solely due to the Mt Pele´e eruption in 1902. Middle-income countries suffered more than low or high-income countries in terms of human impacts, and increasing population densities in these developing countries mean that the risks from future activity are increasing.

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The clear increase in incidents towards the end of the century is representative of this trend. Pyroclastic currents were responsible for the highest number of fatalities, and primary lahars were the principle cause of injuries. Tephra was responsible for the highest numbers of people made homeless and evacuated/affected. Problems experienced in the compilation of the database and its analysis suggest that future cataloguing of human impacts of volcanism would be facilitated by a common terminology for reporting. For example, the word bcasualtiesQ should be avoided, as this can be used to define both persons who have been injured and persons who have been killed, and its use can result in misleading reports. We suggest that, wherever possible, the numbers of people affected by volcanism should be reported and recorded under the following headings: killed, injured, homeless, evacuated, otherwise affected. Where botherwise affectedQ includes people in communities severely affected by tephra fall or acidic gases, but not to the extent to cause evacuation. The causes of the impacts should also be recorded if known. Whilst the quality and completeness of the data in this database are not perfect, comparison to the volcano subset of the CRED EM-DAT has revealed that ~40% of the EM-DAT volcano records are factually incorrect. Impact values and totals from EM-DAT are already treated as representative rather than precise, but the analysis here suggests that if similar errors are found in other parts of the database these representative figures could be out by up to 30%. The use of ranges and qualitative statements in disaster reporting means that the possible error bounds in any database are inevitably high, particularly for numbers of displaced people. Due caution needs to be taken when using the data from any disaster or incidents database, including this one.

Acknowledgements Clive Oppenheimer is thanked for constructive discussion during the work and valuable feedback on an early version of the manuscript. Russell Blong and an anonymous reviewer are thanked for suggesting improvements to the manuscript. This work was supported by the UK NERC (award number NER/S/ A/2001/06108).

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